Sector Update

Commodities Sector
Samuel Equity Research 04 Februari 2019

Arandi Ariantara
+62 21 2854 8148
arandi.ariantara@samuel.co.id
Sharlita Malik
+62 21 2854 8339
sharlita.malik@samuel.co.id
Condusive environment
Minyak dan gas: Harga minyak menguat 4% mom ke USD 60,2/b,
dengan persediaan minyak AS naik 1% mom. Rata-rata harga minyak
Brent di Januari 2019 menguat 4% mom ke USD 60,2/b seiring rencana
pemangkasan produksi minyak OPEC sebesar 1,2 juta b/d (realisasi Januari,
produksi OPEC turun 890k b/d). Di sisi lain sanksi AS terhadap Venezuela
diperkirakan akan kembali memotong pasokan minyak ke pasar dunia.
Sekitar 350k b/d produksi Venezuela tertahan akibat sanksi tersebut.
Persediaan minyak AS naik 1% mom ke 445,9 juta barel. Kami
merekomendasikan MEDC dengan TP Rp 1.300, tercapainya kesepakatan
akuisisi Ophir Energy Plc akan mendorong kinerja MEDC di 2019.

Batubara: Turunnya persediaan batubara China sebesar 8% mom,

menopang penguatan harga kalori rendah 4% mom. Di bulan Januari,
Penguatan harga batubara kalori
harga rata-rata batubara kalori 4.200 GAR Indonesia tercatat menguat 4%
rendah ditopang oleh melambatnya
mom ke USD 32,1/ton. Penguatan harga tersebut dipicu oleh melambatnya
aktivitas produksi menyusul
aktivitas tambang menyusul perayaan tahun baru Imlek serta cuaca dingin
perayaan tahun baru dan cuaca
yang melanda China, terutama China bagian utara. Penguatan harga juga
dingin.
ditopang oleh turunnya persediaan batubara di pelabuhan China sebesar 8%
mom ke 19,5 juta ton. Kami merekomendasikan ITMG dengan TP Rp 24.800,
mengingat batubara ITMG memiliki kualitas menyerupai batubara
benchmark. Harga batubara benchmark masih stabil di rataan USD 99,5/ton.

CPO: Peluang defisit di 1Q19. Per Januari 2019 pemerintah India

Melemahnya pasokan dan
permintaan yang menguat memberi
peluang defisit di 1Q19.
memutuskan menurunkan bea impor CPO dari negara ASEAN, memberi
peluang peningkatan impor CPO India. Sementara data impor CPO China di
FY’18 menguat +17% yoy. Harga rata-rata CPO Ytd berada di level MYR
2.139/ ton (+10% Ytd) dengan level persediaan tetap dibawah 2 juta ton.
Secara keseluruhan pada 1Q19 pasokan CPO dari Malaysia dan Indonesia
berpeluang melemah -7.6% (menjadi ~13 juta ton) sejalan dengan
pelemahan yield. Secara historis permintaan CPO di 1Q ~ 19 juta ton.
Menurunnya produksi di 1Q19 berpeluang menciptakan defisit sekitar 2 juta
ton. Untuk B20 realisasi di 1Q19 diperkirakan mencapai 93% seiring
penambahan 2 floating storage di Balikpapan dengan konsumsi di 2019
mencapai 6,2 juta KL (+3%yoy).Kami estimasikan harga rata-rata CPO pada
2019 di level MYR 2.550 (+11% yoy). Overweight dengan LSIP menjadi top
pick, TP: Rp 1.750.

Nikel masih diwarnai oleh isu
rendahnya pasokan global.
Nikel: isu rendahnya pasokan masih mewarnai pasar nikel. Harga rata-
rata nikel Ytd berada di level 11.462/ton, menguat 13,4% Ytd dengan level
persediaan hingga Jan’19 sebesar 202,7 ribu ton melemah 3% mom, masih
dibawah rata-rata historis. Di sisi pasokan, pasar nikel global masih diwarnai
oleh diwarnai oleh isu pasokan di Indonesia dan Filipina. Meski pemerintah
Indonesia sudah membuka ekspor bijih nikel sekitar 15 juta ton, namun
ekspor bijih nikel Filipina berpotensi melemah ~6% yoy, merespon penutupan
beberapa tambang yang dianggap tidak menguntungkan. Sehingga, kami
perkirakan total pasokan nikel global sebesar 2.098kt (-8% yoy) di 2019
dengan asumsi harga rata-rata nikel 2019F, USD 14,000/ton (+8%yoy).
INCO menjadi top pick dengan TP Rp 5.200

www.samuel.co.id Page 1 of 5
 Commodities Sector

Figure 1. Oil price & inventory

(USD/b) ('000 barrels)
31 January 2019
100 Price: USD60.2/b, +4.4% yoy 600
Stocks: 445.9mn +1.0% mom 550
80
500
60 450
400
40 350
300
20
250
0 200
Jul-15 Nov-15Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17Mar-18 Jul-18 Nov-18
DOE crude oil inventory data (mn barrels) Brent (LHS, USD/b)
Sumber: SSI Research, Bloomberg

Figure 2. Nickel price & inventory

30 January 2019
Price: USD 12,120/t,+13.4% m-m
25000 Stocks: 202.782 t, - 2.8% m-m 500,000

20000 400,000

15000 300,000

10000 200,000

5000 100,000

0 -
Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19

LME Nickel Price (LHS) LME Nickel Inventory ( RHS)

Sumber: SSI Research, Bloomberg

www.samuel.co.id Page 2 of 5
 Commodities Sector

Figure 3. CPO price & inventory

30 January 2019
Price: MYR 2,201/mt, +9.8% m-m
Stocks: 1,940 t, +16.2% m-m
2,500
3,000
2,000

1,500 2,000
1,000
1,000
500

- -
Jan-15 Oct-15 Jul-16 Apr-17 Jan-18 Oct-18
CPO Inventory Level (RHS) CPO Price (LHS)

Sumber: SSI Research, Bloomberg

Figure 4. Coal price & inventory

(10k tons) (USD/mt)
31 January 2019
2,600 140
Price: USD 99.5/mt, -4% yoy
2,400 Stocks: 19.5 mn mt, -8% mom 120

2,200 100

2,000 80

1,800 60

1,600 40

1,400 20

1,200 0
Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18

Persediaan batubara pelabuhan China (LHS, 10k mt)

Harga batubara (RHS, USD/mt)

Sumber: SSI Research, Bloomberg

www.samuel.co.id Page 3 of 5
 Commodities Sector

Figure 5: Valuation table for oil and gas sector

Last Target Market

P/E PEG PBV ROAE EPS CAGR
Company Rec
Price Price Cap (x) (x) (x) (%) (%)
(Rp) (Rp) (Rp bn) 19F 19F 19F 19F 17A – 20F
AKRA BUY 5,375 4,400 21,178 15.0 (0.7) 1.4 14.3 21.4
MEDC BUY 1,020 1,300 18,136 8.6 0.1 0.7 10.0 10.1
PGAS BUY 2,520 2,600 61,089 11.9 0.3 0.9 9.7 44.6
ELSA BUY 362 658 2,642 5.8 15.5 0.7 12.0 37.4
Average 11.8 0.5 1.0 10.8 34.2
Sumber: Perusahaan, SSI Research

Figure 6: Valuation table for plantation sector

Company Rec Last Target Market P/E EV/EBITDA ROE EPS CAGR
Price Price Cap (x) (x) (%) (%)
(Rp) (Rp) (Rp bn) 19F 19F 19F 17A-20F

AALI BUY 13,750 15,900 21,123 14.7 6.3 6.4 19.1

LSIP BUY 1,500 1,750 7,778 12.7 6.7 7.3 20.6
SIMP HOLD 520 500 15,816 16.7 2.4 2.4 25.7
TBLA BUY 1,005 1,300 5,342 4.3 4.2 20.7 15.1
Average 12.1 4.9 9.2 20.1
Sumber: Perusahaan, SSI Research

Figure 7: Valuation table for coal sector

Company Rec Last Target Market P/E PEG PBV ROE EPS CAGR
Price Price Cap (x) (x) (x) (%) (%)
(Rp) (Rp) (Rp bn) 19F 19F 19F 19F 17A-20F
PTBA BUY 4,320 5,400 49,769 8.1 0.9 2.3 28.8 21.6
ADRO BUY 1,370 2,400 43,821 6.4 0.3 0.7 11.3 1.3
ITMG BUY 22,000 28,000 24,858 5.6 0.3 5.6 25.7 (6.0)
BUMI UR 162 UR 10,607 1.8 2.5 0.9 41.4 81.1
Average 6.5 0.7 2.3 23.1 13.3
Sumber: Perusahaan, SSI Research

Figure 8: Valuation table for metal mining sector

Company Rec Last Target Market P/E EV/EBITDA ROE

Price Price Cap (x) (x) (%)
(Rp) (Rp) (Rp bn) 19F 19F 19F
INCO BUY 3,700 5,200 9,936 20.9 6.2 6.6
ANTM BUY 850 980 24,031 10.2 6.6 6.2
TINS BUY 970 1,150 7,447 6.9 4.5 8.9
Average 12.6 5.8 7.2
Sumber: Perusahaan, SSI Research

www.samuel.co.id Page 4 of 5
 Research Team

Head of Equity Research, Strategy,

Suria Dharma suria.dharma@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8148
Banking, Consumer (Staple)

Ahmad Mikail Economist ahmad.mikail@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8396

William Mamudi, CMT Technical Analyst william.mamudi@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8382

Property, Construction, Cement, Toll
Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA Road, Aviation, Automotive, Mining akhmad.nurcahyadi@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8144
Contractor, Cigarette, Healthcare
Oil and Gas, Chemical, Coal, Telco,
Arandi Ariantara arandi.ariantara@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8392
Telco Retail
Consumer (Poultry, Retail, Small Cap),
Marlene Tanumihardja marlene@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8387
Pulp and Paper, Media
Metal, Telco Infrastructure, Plantation,
Sharlita Lutfiah Malik sharlita.malik@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8339
Small Cap

Albertha Palma Research Associate albertha.palma@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8338

Private Wealth Management

Evelyn Satyono Head of PWM / Institutional Sales evelyn.satyono@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8380

Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor m.alfatih@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8129

Ronny Ardianto Institutional Equity Sales ronny.ardianto@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8399

Clarice Wijana Institutional Equity Sales clarice.wijana@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8395

Fachruly Fiater Institutional Equity Sales fachruly.fiater@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8325

Equity Sales Team

Kelvin Long Head of Equities kelvin.long@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8150

Yulianah Institutional Equity Sales yulianah@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8146

Lucia Irawati Retail Equity Sales lucia.irawati@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8173

Online Trading Sales Team

Nugroho Nuswantoro Head of Marketing Online Trading nugroho.nuswantoro@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8372

Wahyu Widodo Marketing wahyu.widodo@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8371

Aben Epapras Marketing aben.epapras@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8389

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