FORMTP2005275 @ TEST CODE 02146020

MAY/JUNE 2005

CARIBBEAN EXAMINATIONS COUNCIL

ADVANCED PROFICIENCY EXAMINATION
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
PAPER02
2 hours

( 30 MAY 2005 (a.m.))

This examination paper consists of THREE sections: Module 1, Module 2 and Module 3.

Each section consists of 2 questions.

The maximum mark for each question is 40.
The maximum mark for this examination is 120.
This examination consists of 6 printed pages and an answer sheet for Question 6.

INSTRUCTIONS TO CANDIDATES

1. DO NOT open this examination paper until instructed to do so.

2. Answer ALL questions from the THREE sections.

3. Unless otherwise stated in the question, all numerical answers M UST

be given exactly OR to three significant figures as appropriate.

Examination materials:

List of Formulae and Statistical Tables (Revised 2004)

Electronic calculator
Graph Paper
Geometry Set

Copyright © 2004 Caribbean Examinations Council

All rights reserved.

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SECTION A

MODULE!

Answer BOTH questions.

1. (a) Give a definition of

(i) a 'simple random' sampl e [2 marks]

(ii) a 'stratified random' sample. [3 marks]

(b) Select a random sample of size 5, without replacement, from the numbers between 050
and 800 inclusive, by using Table 4 (Random Sampling Numbers) provided in the List
of Formulae and Statistical Tables. Start at the second row from the bottom with 895
and work across the row from left to right, listing the numbers in the sample in the order
in which they are selected. [4 marks]

(c) A sample of size 30, without replacement, is to be selected from the 600 persons attending
a health lecture.

(i) Describe how this sampl e could be obtained using a 'lottery' technique.
[5 marks]

(ii) Explain ONE distinct di sadvantage of obtain ing the sample by selecting

a) the first 30 persons who leave after the lecture has ended [2 marks]

b) a simple random sample [2 marks]

c) a stratified random sample. [2 marks]

Total 20 marks

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2. The table below shows the marks (out of 5) scored by a class of 30 students on a quiz.

Marks 0 1 2 3 4 5

N umber of students 2 4 3 6 7 8

(a) Use the information in the table to de termine the

(i) mode [1 mark]

(ii) median [2 marks]

(iii) mean [2 marks]

(iv) variance [4 marks]

(v) 10% trimmed mean [4 marks]

(vi) 30th percentile [2 marks]

(vii ) lower and upper quartiles. [3 marks]

(b) State

(i) ONE common disadvantage in using the median, mean and 10% trimmed mean
as measures of central tendency for these data [1 m a rk]

(ii) which ONE of the numerical measures calculated in (a) (i)- (vii) above, would
remain unchanged if 5 marks is added to each student's score. [1 mark]

Total 20 marks

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SECTIONB

MODULE2

Answer BOTH questions.

3. (a) The following graph, not drawn to scale, shows the probability density function f(x) of
a continuous random variable X.

f(x)

(i) Show that k = 71 . [5 marks]

(ii) Hence determine P(4::; X::; 6). [2 marks]

(b) T he random variable Y has the following probabili ty distribution.

0 2 4 8

0.12 0.32 0.26 0.3

(i) State TWO properties that must be satisfied by the probability distribution of Y.
[2 marks]

(ii) Determine the following:

a) F(6), where F(y) is the cumulative di stribution function of Y [2 marks]

b) Var(Y) [5 marks]

(iii) Let Y, and Y2 be two independent random observations of Y. Calculate the

probability that the value of Y2 is 4 more than the value of Y,. [4 marks]

Total 20 marks

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4. The probability that a randomly chosen customer at a juice bar orders pineapple, melon or orange
juice is 0.65, 0.2 and 0.15 respectively. Of those customers ordering pineapple juice, 20% have
honey added. Of those who order melon or orange j uice, the percentage having honey added is
15% and 25% respectively.

(a) Illustrate the information above with a carefully labelled tree diagram, showing the
appropriate probabilities on ALL of the bra nches. [6 marks]

(b) He nce, determine the probability that a randomly chosen custome r orders

(i) melon juice with honey added [2 marks]

(ii) a juice with honey added [4 ma rks]

(iii ) pineapple juice or a juice with honey added [4 m a rks]

(iv) orange juice, given that a j uice with honey added is ordered. [4 marks]

Total 20 marks

SECTION C

MODULE3

Answer BOTH questions.

5. Workers at a commercial bakery make pastry with a mean time of 40 minutes and standard
deviation 9 minutes. After new worke rs are hired, the standard dev iation of the time taken to
make pastry is assumed to be the same. The manager of the bakery wishes to determine whethe r
the mean time taken by workers to make pastry is different from 40 minutes. A test at the 4%
level of significance is carried out, using a random sample of 50 workers whose mean time to
make pastry is 35 minutes.

(a) State, giving a reason for your answer, whether a one-tailed or two-tailed test is appropriate.
[2 marks]

(b) Using symbols only, formu late the null and alternate hypotheses. [4 marks]

(c) Give ONE reason why the use of Central Limit theorem is appropriate in this situation.
[1 mark]

(d) Identify the critical region(s) for this significance test. [4 marks]

(e) State the effect of an increase in the level of sig nificance on the size of the critical region.
[1 mark]

(f) Calculate the test statistic. [5 marks]

(g) State your conclusion clearly, supporting it with a reasoned argument. [3 marks]

Total 20 marks

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6. An answer sheet is provided for Part (a) of this question.

A researcher wishes to de termine whethe r there is a re lationship between the age, x years, of a
tree and the number of fruit, y , the tree bears. The numbe rs of fruit that the tree bears over a
period of 12 years are g iven in the table be low.

X 1 3 5 6 7 8 9 10 II 12

y 80 85 75 78 81 72 73 66 70 64

[l::t: = 72, :I:y = 744, l:xy = 5 176, L.x-2 = 630, :I:y2 =55 760]

(a) On the answer sheet provided, plot a scatter diagram for the above data. [5 marks]

(b) Calculate and inte rpret the product moment correlation coefficie nt for the data.
[4 marks]

(c) Find the equati on of the regression line y on x in the form y =a + bx and plot it on the
scatter diagram. [7 marks]

(d) Use the regressio n li ne found in (c) to estimate the number of fruit the tree bears at age 13
years and comme nt brie fl y on the reli abil ity of this estimate. [4 marks]

Total 20 marks

END OF TEST

02 146020/CA PE 2005