ThinkHQ - Voters Review Provincial Party Leaders - April 8, 2019

ALBERTA VOTES 2019
VOTERS REVIEW PROVINCIAL PARTY LEADERS

MEDIA RELEASE:*APRIL 8,*2019
Copyright*©*2019*ThinkHQ*Public*Affairs*Inc.*All*rights*reserved
The*contents*of*this*document*are*the*exclusive*property*of*ThinkHQ*Public*Affairs*Inc.,*and*may*not*be*
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ALBERTA VOTES 2019
<VOTERS REVIEW PROVINCIAL PARTY LEADERS
The,sour,tone,of,Alberta’s,2019,provincial,campaign,is,clearly,reflected,in,voter,
evaluations,of,party,leaders,as,the,election,enters,its,final,week;,in,varying,degrees,,
ALL of,the,provincial,party,leaders,receive,negative,ratings,from,the,electorate.
Rachel1Notley
The,NDP’s,election,script,has,heavily,emphasized,criticism,toward,UCP,leader,Jason,
Kenney,,his,roster,of,candidates,,and,his,“fitness,to,govern”.,While,this,approach,has,
been,reasonably,effective,in,driving,negativity,toward,Kenney,,it,has,not,improved,the,
Premier’s,personal,standings,with,voters.,Moreover,,in,Calgary,where,the,NDP,need,to,
keep/grow,their,seat,count,,the,NDP,leader’s,ratings,are,statistically,identical,to,those,
for,Kenney.
• Fully,oneYhalf,(50%),of,Alberta,voters,say,they,disapprove,of,the,Premier,today,,
while,46%,offer,approval
• Approval,for,Notley,is,highest,in,Edmonton,(61%),,and,declines,with,age,and,
increases,with,education,levels,among,voters
CONFIDENTIAL:,Media,Release,April,8,,2019
Copyright,©,2019,ThinkHQ,Public,Affairs,Inc.,All,rights,reserved. www.thinkhq.com,| 2
ALBERTA VOTES 2019
<VOTERS REVIEW PROVINCIAL PARTY LEADERS
Jason0Kenney
Over,the,first,three,weeks,of,campaigning,,the,UCP,leader,has,weathered,a,massive,
amount,of,negative,information,directed,toward,him.,While,his,personal,“negatives”,
have,climbed,significantly,since,March,,his,approval,has,held,reasonably,firm,(growth,
in,negativity,has,come,from,those,previously,unsure,about,Kenney).
• Over,oneUhalf,(53%),of,Alberta,voters,currently,hold,a,negative,view,of,Jason,
Kenney,,compared,to,41%,who,approve,of,him,as,UCP,leader
• Kenney’s,negatives,have,jumped,eight,percentage,points,since,the,writ,dropped,in,
March
• Edmonton,is,hostile,territory,for,the,UCP,leader,where,only,32%,say,they,approve,
of,him.,There,is,also,a,significant,“gender,gap”,in,approval,for,Kenney,,with,men,
offering,considerably,more,positive,ratings,than,women
• Approval,for,the,UCP,leader,tends,to,increase,with,age,and,decline,with,education,
levels,of,voters
ALBERTA VOTES 2019
AVOTERS REVIEW PROVINCIAL PARTY LEADERS
Stephen1Mandel1&1David1Khan
Opposition,leaders,often,“struggle,for,oxygen”,in,Alberta.,Typically,,high,proportions,
of,voters,do,not,pay,attention,to,them,(or,at,least,are,unable,to,rate,their,
performance),,and,among,those,who,do,know,them,,these,leaders,generally,find,
themselves,in,“negative”,territory.,Such,was,the,preTwrit,dilemma,for,Alberta,Party,
leader,Stephen,Mandel,and,Liberal,leader,David,Khan.,,
But,election,campaigns,provide,these,leaders,with,exposure,,and,an,opportunity,for,
voters,to,get,to,know,(and,more,importantly,to,like),them.,Both,Mandel,and,Khan,
have,seen,substantial,increases,in,their,personal,approval,in,the,past,month,,with,a,
roughly,equivalent,drop,in,uncertainty.
• Stephen,Mandel’s,approval,has,climbed,13,percentage,points,since,the,start,of,the,
writ,,now,sitting,at,38%,vs.,39%,disapproval.,Based,upon,“net,approval”,scores,
Mandel,is,the,most,popular,provincial,leader,right,now
• David,Khan’s,personal,approval,is,up,16,percentage,points,since,late,March;,
currently,at,31%,compared,to,45%,who,disapprove
ALBERTA VOTES 2019
>VOTERS REVIEW PROVINCIAL PARTY LEADERS
Derek.Fildebrandt
The,leader,of,the,fledgling,Freedom,Conservative,Party,has,a,damaged,reputation,
among,Alberta,voters.
• Fully,56%,of,Alberta,voters,say,they,disapprove,of,Fildebrandt,,compared,to,only,
12%,who,approve,,and,onePthird,(32%),who,are,unable,to,rate,him
ALBERTA VOTES 2019
3WHO WON THE DEBATE?7AND DOES IT MATTER?
While,the,only,televised,leaders’,debate,of,the,2019,election,may,have,been,
entertaining,,the,outcome,was,not,decisive.,Despite,the,lack,of,a,“knockQout”,,the,
debate,may,stall,any,momentum,for,the,governing,NDP,in,the,closing,days,of,the,
campaign,as,a,plurality,of,voters,think,Jason,Kenney,performed,best,and,Rachel,
Notley,worst.
• Roughly,oneQthird,(34%),of,Alberta,voters,report,watching,all,or,most,of,the,
leaders’,debate,last,Thursday,,while,a,majority,say,they,have,followed,media,
coverage,of,the,event,at,least,fairly,closely
• Among,those,who,watched,the,debate,themselves,or,have,followed,it,in,the,
media,,Jason,Kenney,is,seen,as,the,leader,who,performed,best,by,28%,,followed,
by,Notley,(17%),and,Khan/Mandel,with,10%,each
• Meanwhile,,among,this,same,group,28%,believe,Rachel,Notley,performed,worst,,
followed,by,Kenney,(23%),,Mandel,(9%),and,Khan,(7%)
• Views on,who,won,and,lost,the,debate,are,more,pronounced,among,those,who,
either,watched,the,entire,debate,themselves,or,have,followed,it,closely,in,the,
media
ALBERTA VOTES 2019
3THE FINAL DAYS OF THE CAMPAIGN
Commenting,on,the,survey,results,,ThinkHQ President,Marc,Henry,notes:
“This,has,been,one,of,the,most,vitriolic,campaigns,in,recent,memory,,and,it,
shows;,Alberta,voters,are,not,bullish,on,ANY,of,the,leadership,alternatives,
available,to,them.,Jason,Kenney’s,personal,disapproval,has,climbed,sharply,in,the,
past,month,,so,the,NDP,strategy,of,focusing,on,his,leadership,has,been,at,least,
partially,effective.,Their,challenge,is,that,his,approval,has,not,diminished,,and,the,
tone,of,their,campaign,has,not,enhanced,their,own,leader’s,reputation,among,
voters.,This,is,particularly,notable,in,Calgary,where,the,NDP,must,do,well,to,retain,
government,– Notley,and,Kenney’s,approval,ratings,are,statistically,identical.
Khan,and,Mandel,have,seen,the,most,improvement,in,their,profile,and,personal,
standing,among,Alberta,voters,,however,neither,finds,themselves,in,positive,
territory,today.
If,the,NDP,had,any,momentum,behind,them,going,into,the,leaders’,debate,,it,has,
likely,stalled.,Three,of,the,four,leaders,did,what,they,needed,to,do,on,debate,
night;,one,did,not.,Rachel,Notley,needed,a,decisive,win,last,week,to,carry,forward,
momentum,to,election,day,,and,she,didn’t,get,it.”
PROVINCIAL LEADERSHIP EVALUATIONS
Would&you&generally&say&you&approve&or&disapprove&of&the&performance&of&the&following&provincial&party&leaders?
Strongly Somewhat Net,

Rachel6Notley6: NDP Approval Unsure
Approve 27% 19% 46%
T4 4%
Disapprove 39% 11% 50%
Jason6Kenney6: United6Conservative6Party6
Approve 20% 21% 41%
T12 6%
Stephen6Mandel6: Alberta6Party
Approve 5% 33% 38%
T1 23%
David6Khan6: Liberals
Approve 4% 27% 31%
T14 24%
Derek6Fildebrandt6– Freedom6Conservative6Party
Approve 10% 12%
T44 32%
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Base:,All,respondents,(n=1,139)
LEADER EVALUATIONS
/BRIAN MASON,3RACHEL NOTLEY
Approve Disapprove Unsure
100%
Notley,becomes, Provincial,Election/
Party,Leader Notley,sworn,in,as,Premier
75%
59% 58% 58% 59% 56% 58%

53% 53% 54% 55% 57% 57% 54%
50% 50% 50% 50% 51% 50% 51% 49% 50%
44% 46%
43% 43% 44% 44% 44%
38% 36% 37% 37% 37% 38% 39% 38% 37% 37% 35% 39% 38% 37% 40%
36% 36% 35% 34% 36% 35%
33% 34% 32% 33%
31%
29% 30% 30% 28% 26%
25% 26%
15%
12%
8% 9% 6% 8% 8% 6% 6% 7% 7% 6%
5% 5% 6% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 4%
0%
Ju
No 3
M 3
Ap 4
Oc
Ja
Ju
Se 5
Ja 5
M 6
Ju 6
Oc
No
Fe 6
Ju 7
Au 7
No
Fe 7
Ap
Ju
Se 8
No 8
Fe 8
Ap 9
ar
n,
ne
n,
ar
ay
ly,
ay
ne
ne
ar
ne
pt
b,
b,
pt
b,
r,'
t, '
t, '
g,'
r',
r,'
v,‘
v, '
v, '
v, '
'15
'16
,' 1
,' 1
'1
'1
'1
,' 1
, '1
, '1
'1
, '1
, '1
,‘1
14
14
16
18
19
,' 1
,' 1
,' 1
1
17
1
1
9
6
Base:,All,respondents
LEADER EVALUATIONS:0RACHEL NOTLEY
3BY REGION AND GENDER
Significantly,higher
%0approve0of0Rachel0Notley,0Leader0of0NDP
Significantly,lower
100% Strongly,approve Somewhat,approve
75%
61%
25% 49%
50% 46% 44%
42% 43%
39% 21%
19% 36% 34%
20% 18% 18%
15% 27%
36% 9% 17%
25%
27% 27% 8% 26% 28%
24% 25%
22%
17% 19%
0%
ta l h l e
er
A A rth tra ut ba
n ra al ale
b ,y C
M
, CM No n So r R u M m
Al r on Ce ll, U Fe
lga n t a
C a
m
o Sm
Ed
TOTAL REGION GENDER
LEADER EVALUATIONS:0RACHEL NOTLEY
3BY AGE,0INCOME AND EDUCATION
%0approve0of0Rachel0Notley,0Leader0of0NDP
Significantly,lower
75%
55%
51%
46% 46% 48% 47% 46%
50% 22% 44%
40% 21%
19% 16% 20% 21% 22%
21%
15%
25%
25%
33%
30% 28% 30%
27% 25% 26% 11%
23% 24%
14%
0%
ta 5 4 + K 9K + ss PS +
er <3 S5 55 50 $9 0K r, L
e e, r ad
Al
b 35 <$ S 0 m i ,G
0K $1 S,o So
$5 H Un
TOTAL AGE HOUSEHOLD0INCOME EDUCATION
LEADER EVALUATIONS
/JASON KENNEY
100%
75%
50%
53%
46% 45% 47% 45% 45% 45%
43% 44% 42% 42% 43% 43% 42%
41% 41% 41%
25%
14% 15% 13% 12% 11% 12% 12% 12%

6%
0%
No Fe Ap Ju Se No Fe M Ap
v, ' b, r ',1 n e,' pt v, ' b, ar r ,'1
1 '1 18 , '1 1 '1 ,' 19
7 8 8 8 8 9 9
LEADER EVALUATIONS:0JASON KENNEY
4BY REGION AND GENDER
%0approve0of0Jason0Kenney,0Leader0of0the0UCP
Significantly,lower
75%
62%
54%
62
36%
45% 47% 47%
50% 30%
41% 41% 41%
26% 29% 23% 35%
32%
21% 19% 22%
20%
25% 16%
24% 26% 24%
20% 22%
19% 18% 19%
16% 15%
0%
ta l h l e
er
A A rth tra ut ba
n ra al ale
b ,y C
M
, CM No n So r R u M m
Al r on Ce ll, U Fe
lga n t a
C a
m
o Sm
Ed
TOTAL REGION GENDER
LEADER EVALUATIONS:0JASON KENNEY
4BY AGE,0INCOME AND EDUCATION
%0approve0of0Jason0Kenney,0Leader0of0the0UCP
Significantly,lower
75%
53%
50%
50% 44% 44%
41% 25% 40%
38% 37% 29% 37%
31% 22% 24%
21% 21%
21% 20% 18%
25% 17%
28%
20% 22% 21% 20%
17% 17% 19% 19%
14%
0%
ta 5 4 + K 9K + ss PS +
er <3 R5 55 50 $9 0K r, L
e e, r ad
Al
b 35 <$ R 0 m i ,G
0K $1 S,o So
$5 H Un
TOTAL AGE HOUSEHOLD0INCOME EDUCATION
LEADER EVALUATIONS
/RAJ SHERMAN,4DAVID SWANN,4DAVID KHAN
100%
Sherman,resigns/Swann, David,Khan,
named,Interim,Leader elected,Leader
75% Provincial,Election
50% 51%
46%
42% 41% 42% 41% 41% 43% 42%
41% 43% 42% 44%
43% 43% 41% 44% 43% 45%
41% 42%
40% 39% 39% 39% 39% 39% 40% 40%
36% 37% 37% 36% 38%
35% 34% 37% 35% 36% 37% 37% 36% 33% 36% 37%
33% 32%
30%
28% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 27% 27% 27% 31%
25% 24% 26% 24% 23% 23% 23% 24%
23%
20%
17% 17% 17% 17% 15% 17% 15% 15%
13%
0%
Ju
No 3
M 3
Ap 4
Oc
Ja
Ju
Se 5
Ja 5
M 6
Ju 6
Oc
No
Fe 6
Ju 7
Au 7
No
Fe 7
Ap
Ju
Se 8
No 8
Fe 8
Ap 9
ar
n,
ne
n,
ar
ay
ly,
ay
ne
ne
ar
ne
pt
b,
b,
pt
b,
r,'
t, '
t, '
g,'
r,'
r,'
v,‘
v, '
v, '
v, '
'15
'16
,' 1
,' 1
'1
'1
'1
,' 1
, '1
, '1
'1
, '1
, '1
,‘1
14
14
16
18
19
,' 1
,' 1
,' 1
1
17
1
1
9
6
LEADER EVALUATIONS
/GREG CLARK,3STEPHEN MANDEL
100%
Provincial,Election Clark,resigns,
Mandel,elected,Leader
75%
58%
52% 50%
50%
48% 50% 50% 48% 49% 50% 51% 49%
46%
41% 40% 41% 41%
38% 38% 40% 39% 40% 38%
37% 38% 35% 39%
35%
31% 30% 30%
26% 24% 27% 27%
25% 26% 25% 25% 25%
28%
25% 27% 29% 27%
23% 23% 25% 23%
25%
23% 24% 22% 24% 22% 24%
20% 19%
17%
0%
Ap
Ju
Se
Ja
Ju
Oc
No
Fe
Ju
Au
No
Ap
Ju
Se
No
Fe
Ap
n
n,
ar
ay
ly,
ay
ar
pt
b,
pt
b,
r
t, '
g,'
r,'
v, '
v, '
v, '
e,'
e,'
e,'
il, '
,'1
'16
,' 1
'1
'1
,' 1
, '1
, '1
'1
, '1
, '1
16
19
16
17
17
1
1
15
17
18
7
9
6
6
9
6
7
5
8
5
LEADER EVALUATIONS:0TRACKING
3KENNEY +0NOTLEY COMPARISON IN CALGARY (CMA)
Jason0Kenney Rachel0Notley
Approve Disapprove Unsure Approve Disapprove Unsure

100% 100%
75% 75%
56% 55% 56%

52% 53% 53% 51% 51%
50% 50% 48%
50% 49%
47% 45%
44% 43% 43% 44% 43% 42% 42% 43% 42% 43%
40% 40% 41% 39%
38% 38% 38%
25% 25%
16%
13% 11% 12% 12% 13%
9% 7% 9% 7%
5% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5%
0% 0%
Fe Ap Ju Se No Fe M Ap Fe Ap Ju Se No Fe M Ap
b, r ,'1 n ,'1 pt v, ' b, ar r ,'1 b, r ,'1 n ,'1 pt v, ' b, ar r ,'1
'1 8 , '1 1 '1 ,' 19 '1 8 , '1 1 '1 ,' 19
8 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 9
Base:,Calgary,CMA,Respondents
VOTER EXPOSURE TO LEADERS’2DEBATE
A"televised"provincial"leader’s"debate"was"held"on"April"4th."Which"of"the" And"how"closely"have"you"personally"followed"media"coverage"of"the"provincial"
following"best"describes"you?"I"watched"or"listened"to…? leader’s"debate"on"April"4th?
All,of,the
21% Very,closely 19%
debate
All,or,most: Closely
34% 52%
Most,of,the
13% Fairly,closely 33%
debate
Some,of,the Not,very
22% 29%
debate closely
Some,or,none: Not,closely
66% 48%
None,of,the
44% Not,at,all 19%
debate
0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Base:,All,respondents,(n=1,139)
PUBLIC ASSESSMENT OF LEADER’S DEBATE PERFORMANCE
And$based$upon$your$personal$impressions$or$anything$you’ve$seen,$heard$or$read$about$the$leader’s$debate,$who$do$you$think$performed$best/worst?
Performed,BEST Performed,WORST
28%
Jason,Kenney
23%
17%
Rachel,Notley
28%
10%
David,Khan
7%
10%
Stephen,Mandel
9%
14%
None,of,them
11%
21%
Unsure
24%
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Base:,Watched,or,followed,at,least,some,of,debate/coverage,(n=936)
PUBLIC ASSESSMENT OF LEADER’S DEBATE PERFORMANCE
2BY MAJOR CITIES AND EXPOSURE TO DEBATE/COVERAGE
And$based$upon$your$personal$impressions$or$anything$you’ve$seen,$heard$or$read$about$the$leader’s$debate,$who$do$you$think$performed$best/worst?
Exposure?to?
Total Major?Cities?(CMA)
Leaders’?Debate
Watched?all?of? Followed?media?of?
Alberta Calgary Edmonton debate debate?very?closely
(n=936) (n=326) (n=300)
(n=244) (n=215)
PERFORMED?BEST
Jason,Kenney 28% 29% 20% 35% 41%
Rachel,Notley 17% 15% 21% 17% 17%
David,Khan 10% 8% 12% 18% 13%
Stephen,Mandel 10% 10% 10% 16% 12%
PERFORMED?WORST
Rachel,Notley 28% 26% 19% 33% 36%
Jason,Kenney 23% 20% 29% 27% 25%
Stephen,Mandel 9% 8% 10% 13% 11%
David,Khan 7% 8% 8% 12% 10%
Base:,Watched,or,followed,at,least,some,of,debate/coverage,(n=936)
Significantly higher Significantly lower
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
• Study,fielded,via,online,research,panel
− Field,dates:,April,5,– 6,,2019
− Panel,source:,ThinkHQ,Connect,&,MARU
• n=1,139
• Weighted,to,reflect,gender,,age,and,region,of,Alberta,population,according,to,Stats,
Canada
• This,online,survey,utilizes,a,representative,but,nonWrandom,sample,,therefore,
margin,of,error,is,not,applicable.,However,,a,probability,sample,of,this,size,would,
yield,a,margin,of,error,of,+/W 2.9,,percentage,points,at,a,95%,confidence,interval
• Accuracy,of,subWsamples,of,the,data,decline,based,on,sample,sizes
REGIONAL SAMPLE SIZES AND MARGINS OF ERROR
Total5Interviews5 Total5Interviews5 Margin5of5Error

(Associated with,a,
(Unweighted) (Weighted)
probability,sample,of,
(n) (n)
this,size)
ALBERTA TOTAL 1,139 1,139 +/T 2.9
Calgary 440 399 +/T 4.7
Edmonton 335 359 +/T 5.4
North 91 138 +/T 10.3
Central 136 127 +/T 8.4
South 137 117 +/T 8.4
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ALBERTA VOTES 2019

VOTERS REVIEW PROVINCIAL PARTY LEADERS

Strongly Somewhat Net,

Approve Disapprove Unsure

59% 58% 58% 59% 56% 58%

100% Strongly,approve Somewhat,approve

100% Strongly,approve Somewhat,approve

TOTAL AGE HOUSEHOLD0INCOME EDUCATION

Approve Disapprove Unsure

14% 15% 13% 12% 11% 12% 12% 12%

100% Strongly,approve Somewhat,approve

100% Strongly,approve Somewhat,approve

TOTAL AGE HOUSEHOLD0INCOME EDUCATION

Approve Disapprove Unsure

Approve Disapprove Unsure

Approve Disapprove Unsure Approve Disapprove Unsure

56% 55% 56%

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Total5Interviews5 Total5Interviews5 Margin5of5Error

ALBERTA TOTAL 1,139 1,139 +/T 2.9

Calgary 440 399 +/T 4.7

Edmonton 335 359 +/T 5.4

North 91 138 +/T 10.3

Central 136 127 +/T 8.4

South 137 117 +/T 8.4

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