Vous êtes sur la page 1sur 113

ENGINEERING

 ECONOMY  

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


Engineering  Economic  Decisions  
Foundations  of  Engineering  
Economy    
Factors:  Effect  of  Time  and  Interest  
on  Money  
1  

L-­‐1  
Engineering  Economy  

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


Description: Annual cost comparison;
Economic analysis for Present value analysis;
engineering decision Rate of return;
making;
Depreciation and taxes;
The finance function in
Multiple alternatives;
an industrial enterprise,
time value of money; Mathematical models for
equipment replacement;
Basic interest formulas;
Decision analysis;
Concepts of cost
2  
engineering.
L-­‐1  
Why Engineering Economy is Important to
Engineers
v   Engineers  design  and  create  
v   Designing  involves  economic  decisions  
v   Engineers  must  be  able  to  incorporate  economic  
analysis  into  their  creaFve  efforts  

© 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All


Rights Reserved
v   OHen  engineers  must  select  and  implement  from  
mulFple  alternaFves  
v   Understanding  and  applying  Fme  value  of  money,  
economic  equivalence,  and  cost  esFmaFon  are  vital  
for  engineers  
v   A  proper  economic  analysis  for  selecFon  and  
execuFon  is  a  fundamental  task  of  engineering  
1-3
Chapter  Opening  Story  1  -­‐  Bose  
Corporation  
•  Dr.  Amar  Bose,  a  graduate  of  electrical  engineering,  

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


an  MIT  professor,  and  Chairman  of  Bose  
CorporaFon.  
•  He  invented  a  direcFonal  home  speaker  system  that  
reproduces  the  concert  experience.  
•  He  formed  Bose  CorporaFon  in  1964  and  became  
the  world’s  No.1  speaker  maker.  
•  He  became  the  288th  wealthiest  American  in  2002  by  
Forbes  magazine.  

4  

L-­‐1  
Opening Story 2: Google

5
A Little Google History
•  1995
•  Developed in dorm room by Larry Page and Sergey Brin,
graduate students at Stanford University
•  Nicknamed BackRub (reflecting great taste… J)
•  1998
•  Raised $25 million to set up Google, Inc.
•  Ran 100,000 queries a day out of a garage in Menlo Park
•  2005
•  Over 4,000 employees worldwide
•  Over 8 billion pages indexed
•  Estimated market value over $100 billion
•  As of today, the value of Google is likely to be in the
hundreds of billions range
6
Engineering Economics
Overview

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


•  Rational Decision-Making Process
•  Economic Decisions
•  Predicting Future
•  Role of Engineers in Business
•  Large-scale engineering projects
•  Types of strategic engineering economic
decisions
7  

L-­‐1  
Rational  Decision-­‐Making  
Process  
1.  Recognize  a  decision  problem   The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again.

2.  Define  the  goals  or  objecFves  


3.  Collect  all  the  relevant  
informaFon  
4.  IdenFfy  a  set  of  feasible  
decision  alternaFves  
5.  Select  the  decision  criterion  to  
use  
6.  Select  the  best  alternaFve  

8  

L-­‐1  
A Simple Illustrative Example: Car to
Lease – Saturn or Honda?
§  Recognize the decision •  Need to lease a car

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


problem
§  Collect all needed •  Gather technical and
(relevant) information financial data
§  Identify the set of feasible •  Select cars to consider
decision alternatives
§  Define the key objectives •  Wanted: small cash outlay,
and constraints safety, good performance,
aesthetics,…
§  Select the best possible •  Choice between Saturn and
and implementable Honda (or others)
decision alternative
•  Select a car (i.e., Honda, 9  
Saturn or another brand)
L-­‐1  
Financial  Data  Required  to  Make  an  Economic  
Decision  

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


10  

L-­‐1  
Engineering  Economic  
Decisions  

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


Manufacturing Profit

Planning Investment
11  
Marketing
L-­‐1  
Predicting  the  Future  
•  EsFmaFng  a  Required  

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


investment  
•  ForecasFng  a  product  
demand  
•  EsFmaFng  a  selling  price  
•  EsFmaFng  a  
manufacturing  cost  
•  EsFmaFng  a  product  life  
and  the  profitability  of  
conFnuing  producFon   12  

L-­‐1  
Role  of  Engineers  in  Business  

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


Create  &  Design  
 
•   Engineering  Projects  

Analyze   Evaluate   Evaluate  


     
•   ProducFon  Methods   •   Expected     •   Impact  on    
•   Engineering  Safety   Profitability   Financial  Statements  
•   Environmental  Impacts   •   Timing  of       •   Firm’s  Market  Value  
•   Market  Assessment   Cash  Flows   •   Stock  Price  
  •   Degree  of  
Financial  Risk  

13  

L-­‐1  
Accounting  Vs.  Accounting  

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


Evalua3ng  past  performance   Evalua3ng  and  predic3ng  future  events  

Accoun3ng   Engineering  Economy  


Past   Future  
Present   14  

L-­‐1  
Two  Factors  in  Engineering  
Economic  Decisions  

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


   ObjecFves,  available  resources,  Fme  
and  uncertainty  are  the  key  defining  
aspects  of  all  engineering  economic  
decisions  
The  factors  of  Fme  and  uncertainty  are  the  
defining  aspects  of  any  engineering   15  

economic  decisions   L-­‐1  


A  Large-­‐Scale  Engineering  Project  
•  Requires  a  large  sum  of  

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


investment  
•  Takes  a  long  Fme  to  see  
the  financial  outcomes  
•  Difficult  to  predict  the  
revenue  and  cost  streams  
•  Can  be  very  risky  

16  

L-­‐1  
Types  of  Strategic  Engineering  
Economic  Decisions  in  
Manufacturing  Sector  

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


q Service  Improvement    
q Equipment  and  Process  SelecFon  
q Equipment  Replacement  
q New  Product  and  Product  Expansion  
q Cost  ReducFon  
q Profit  MaximizaFon  

Engineers  have  to  make  decisions  unders  resource  constraints,  


and  in  presence  of  uncertainty.     17  

L-­‐1  
 
Types of Strategic Engineering Economic
Decisions in Service Sector

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


q   Commercial  TransportaFon    
q   LogisFcs  and  DistribuFon  
q   Healthcare  Industry  
q   Electronic  Markets  and  AucFons  
q   Financial  Engineering  
q   Retails  
q   Hospitality  and  Entertainment  
q   Customer  Service  and  Maintenance  
18  

  L-­‐1  
Equipment  &  Process  Selection  

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


19  

L-­‐1  
Equipment  Replacement  Problem  
•  Now  is  the  Fme  to  

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


replace  the  old  machine?  
•  If  not,  when  is  the  right  
Fme  to  replace  the  old  
equipment?  

20  

L-­‐1  
New  Product  and  Product  
Expansion  
•  Shall  we  build  or  acquire  

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


a  new  facility  to  meet  the  
increased  demand?  
•  Is  it  worth  spending  
money  to  market  a  new  
product?  

21  

L-­‐1  
Example  -­‐  MACH  3  Project  
•  R&D  investment:  $750  million  
•  Product  promoFon  through  

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


adverFsing:  $300  million  
•  Priced  to  sell  at  35%  higher  
than  Sensor  Excel  (about  $1.50   Gillette’s MACH3
extra  per  shave).   Project
•  QuesFon  1:  Would  consumers  
pay  $1.50  extra  for  a  shave  
with  greater  smoothness  and  
less  irritaFon?  
•  QuesFon  2:  What  would  
happen  if  the  blade  
consumpFon  dropped  more  
than  10%  due  to  the  longer  
blade  life  of  the  new  razor?  
22  

L-­‐1  
Cost  Reduction  
•  Should  a  company  buy  

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


equipment  to  perform  an  
operaFon  now  done  
manually?  
•  Should  spend  money  now  
in  order  to  save  more  
money  later?  

23  

L-­‐1  
Fundamental  Principles  of  
Engineering  Economics  
•  Principle  1:  An  instant  (nearby)  dollar  is  worth  more  than  a  

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


distant  dollar    
•  Principle  2:  All  it  counts  is  the  differences  among  alterna=ves    
•  Principle  3:  Marginal  revenue  must  exceed  marginal  cost    
•  Principle  4:    Addi=onal  risk  is  not  taken  without  the  expected  
addi=onal  return    

24  

L-­‐1  
Principle  1:  A  nearby  dollar  is  
worth  more  than  a  distant  dollar    
 

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


Today 6-month later

25  

L-­‐1  
Principle  2:  All  it  counts  is  the  
differences  among  alternatives  
Option Monthly Monthly Cash Monthly Salvage

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


Fuel Maintena outlay at payment Value at
Cost nce signing end of
year 3

Buy $960 $550 $6,500 $350 $9,000

Lease $960 $550 $2,400 $550 0

Irrelevant items in decision making


26  

L-­‐1  
Principle  3:  Marginal  revenue  must  
exceed  marginal  cost  

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


Marginal
cost

Manufacturing cost 1 unit

Marginal
Sales revenue 1 unit revenue
27  

L-­‐1  
Principle  4:    Additional  risk  is  not  
taken  without  the  expected  additional  
return  

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


Investment Class Potential Expected
Risk Return

Savings account Low/None 1.5%


(cash)

Bond (debt) Moderate 4.8%


Stock (equity) High 11.5%
28  

L-­‐1  
Summary  
•  The  term  engineering  economic  decision  refers  to  all  

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


investment  decisions  relaFng  to  engineering  projects.  

•  The  five  main  types  of  engineering  economic  decisions  


are    
•  (1)  service  improvement,    
•  (2)  equipment  and  process  selecFon,    
•  (3)  equipment  replacement,    
•  (4)  new  product  and  product  expansion,  and    
•  (5)  cost  reducFon.  
29  
•  The  factors  of  Fme  and  uncertainty  are  the  defining  
aspects  of  any  investment  project.   L-­‐1  
Time Value of Money (TVM)
Description: TVM explains the change in the amount of money over time

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


for funds owed by or owned by a corporation (or individual)

•  Corporate investments are expected to earn a return


•  Investment involves money
•  Money has a ‘time value’

The time value of money is the most important concept in


engineering economy
30  

L-­‐1  
Engineering Economy
•  Engineering Economy involves
•  Formulating

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


•  Estimating, and
•  Evaluating
expected economic outcomes of alternatives designed to accomplish a
defined purpose
•  Easy-to-use math techniques simplify the evaluation
•  Estimates of economic outcomes can be deterministic or stochastic in
nature

31  

L-­‐1  
General Steps for Decision Making Processes
1.  Understand the problem – define objectives
2.  Collect relevant information

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


3.  Define the set of feasible alternatives
4.  Identify the criteria for decision making
5.  Evaluate the alternatives and apply sensitivity analysis
6.  Select the “best” alternative
7.  Implement the alternative and monitor results

32  

L-­‐1  
Steps in an Engineering Economy Study

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


33  

L-­‐1  
Ethics – Different Levels
Ø  Universal morals or ethics – Fundamental beliefs: stealing, lying,
harming or murdering another are wrong
Ø Personal morals or ethics – Beliefs that an individual has and maintains

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


over time; how a universal moral is interpreted and used by each
person
Ø  Professional or engineering ethics – Formal standard or code that
guides a person in work activities and decision making

34  

L-­‐1  
Code of Ethics for Engineers
All disciplines have a formal code of ethics. National Society of Professional
Engineers (NSPE) maintains a code specifically for engineers; many
engineering professional societies have their own code

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


35  

L-­‐1  
Interest and Interest Rate (borrower’s perspective
- paid)
•  Interest – the manifestation of the time value of money
•  Fee that one pays to use someone else’s money

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


•  Difference between an ending amount of money and a beginning amount of
money

Ø  Interest = amount owed now – principal(initial ampunt)


•  Interest rate – Interest paid over a time period expressed as a
percentage of principal
Time unit = interest period (if no interest period is stated, a
1 year interest rate is assumed

Ø  36  

L-­‐1  
Interest and Interest Rate (borrower’s perspective
- paid)

•  Example  1  

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


•  Example  2  

37  

L-­‐1  
Rate of Return – ROR / Retorn on
Investment -ROI (saver / lender /
investor’s perspective - earned)

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


q   Interest  earned  over  a  period  of  Fme  is  expressed  as  a  
percentage  of  the  original  amount  (principal)  
 
interest accrued per time unit
Rate of return (%) = x 100%
original amount

v  Borrower’s perspective – interest rate paid 38  

v  Lender’s or investor’s perspective – rate of return earned


L-­‐1  
Rate of Return – ROR / Retorn on Investment -
ROI (saver / lender / investor’s perspective -
earned)

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


•  Example  3  

39  

L-­‐1  
Interest paid Interest earned

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


Interest rate Rate of return 40  

L-­‐1  
Commonly used Symbols
   t  =  Fme,  usually  in  periods  such  as  years  or  
months  

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


 P  =  value  or  amount  of  money  at  a  Fme  t          
 designated  as  present  or  Fme  0  
 F  =  value  or  amount  of  money  at  some  future        
 Fme,  such  as  at  t  =  n  periods  in  the  future    
 A  =  series  of  consecuFve,  equal,  end-­‐of-­‐period  
 amounts  of  money  
 n  =  number  of  interest  periods;  years,  months  
   i  =  interest  rate  or  rate  of  return  per  Fme  period;  
 percent  per  year  or  month  
41  

L-­‐1  
INFLATION
•  InflaFon  :  Changing  value  of  money  that  is  forced  upon  a  
country’s  currency  by  inflaFon.    

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


   Cost  and  revenue  cash  flow  esFmates  increase  
over  Fme.    
 
InflaFon  contributes:  
•  A  reducFon  in  purchasing  power  
•  An  increase  in  the  CPI  (consumer  price  index)  
•  An  increase  in  the  cost  of  equipment  and  its  maintenance  
•  An  increase  in  the  cost  salaried  professionals  and  hourly  
employees  
•  A  reducFon  in  the  real  rate  of  return  on  personal  savings  and   42  
corporate  investments  
L-­‐1  
 
Cash Flows: Terms
•  Cash Inflows – Revenues (R), receipts, incomes,
savings generated by projects and activities that flow in.

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


Plus sign used
•  Cash Outflows – Disbursements (D), costs, expenses,
taxes caused by projects and activities that flow out.
Minus sign used

•  Net Cash Flow (NCF) for each time period:


NCF = cash inflows – cash outflows = R – D

•  End-of-period assumption: 43  
Funds flow at the end of a given interest period
L-­‐1  
Cash Flows: Estimating
ü  Point estimate – A single-value estimate of a cash flow element of an
alternative

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


Cash inflow: Income = $150,000 per month

ü  Range estimate – Min and max values that estimate the cash flow
Cash outflow: Cost is between $2.5 M and $3.2 M
Point estimates are commonly used; however, range estimates with
probabilities attached provide a better understanding of variability of
economic parameters used to make decisions

44  

L-­‐1  
Cash Flow Diagrams
What a typical cash flow diagram might look like

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


Draw a time line Always assume end-of-period cash flows

Time
0 1 2 … … … n-1 n
One  =me  
period  
F = $100
Show the cash flows (to approximate scale)

0 1 2 … … … n-1 n
Cash flows are shown as directed arrows: + (up) for inflow
P = $-80 45  
- (down) for outflow
L-­‐1  
Cash Flow Diagram Example
Plot observed cash flows over last 8 years and estimated sale next
year for $150. Show present worth (P) arrow at present time, t = 0

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


46  

L-­‐1  
Example 4
Cash Flow Diagram

47  

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


L-­‐1  
Economic Equivalence
Definition: Combination of interest rate (rate of return) and time value of
money to determine different amounts of money at different points in

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


time that are economically equivalent

How it works: Use rate i and time t in upcoming relations to move money
(values of P, F and A) between time points t = 0, 1, …, n to make them
equivalent (not equal) at the rate i

48  

L-­‐1  
Example of Equivalence
Different sums of money at different times may be equal in economic
value at a given rate

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


$110

Year

0 1
Rate of return = 10% per year

$100 now

$100 now is economically equivalent to $110 one year from now, if the
$100 is invested at a rate of 10% per year.
49  

L-­‐1  
Simple and Compound Interest
•  Simple Interest

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


Interest is calculated using principal only
Interest = (principal)(number of periods)(interest rate)
I=P.n.i

Example: $100,000 lent for 3 years at simple i = 10% per


year. What is repayment after 3 years?

Interest = 100,000(3)(0.10) = $30,000


50  
Total due = 100,000 + 30,000 = $130,000
L-­‐1  
Example 5
Simple Interest

51  

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


L-­‐1  
•  Compound Interest
Interest is based on principal plus all accrued interest

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


That is, interest compounds over time

Interest = (principal + all accrued interest) (interest rate)

Interest for time period t is


j=t-1

It = ( P + Σ Ij ) (i)
52  
j=1

L-­‐1  
Compound Interest Example
Example: $100,000 lent for 3 years at i = 10% per year compounded. What is
repayment after 3 years?
Interest, year 1: I1 = 100,000(0.10) = $10,000

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


Total due, year 1: T1 = 100,000 + 10,000 = $110,000
Interest, year 2: I2 = 110,000(0.10) = $11,000
Total due, year 2: T2 = 110,000 + 11,000 = $121,000
Interest, year 3: I3 = 121,000(0.10) = $12,100
Total due, year 3: T3 = 121,000 + 12,100 = $133,100

Compounded: $133,100 Simple: $130,000

Practical Solution for the amount due the stated time in the future
F = P. (1 + i) n
$133,100 = 100,000 (1.10)3 53  

L-­‐1  
Example 6
Compound Interest

54  

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


L-­‐1  
Minimum Attractive Rate of Return
v  MARR is a reasonable rate of
return (percent) established
for evaluating and selecting
alternatives
v  An investment is justified

© 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All


Rights Reserved
economically if it is expected
to return at least the MARR
v  Also termed hurdle rate,
benchmark rate and cutoff rate

55  

L-­‐1  
MARR Characteristics
•  MARR is established by the financial managers of the firm
•  MARR is fundamentally connected to the cost of capital

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


•  Both types of capital financing are used to determine the weighted
average cost of capital (WACC) and the MARR
•  MARR usually considers the risk inherent to a project

56  

L-­‐1  
Types of Financing
In general, capital is developed in two ways;

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


•  Equity Financing –Funds either from retained earnings,
new stock issues, or owner’s infusion of money.

•  Debt Financing –Borrowed funds from outside sources


– loans, bonds, mortgages, venture capital pools, etc.
Interest is paid to the lender on these funds

For an economically justified project


57  
ROR ≥ MARR > WACC(cost of capital)
L-­‐1  
Opportunity Cost
§ DefiniFon:  Largest  rate  of  return  of  all  projects  not  
accepted  (forgone)  due  to  a  lack  of  capital  funds  

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


§  If  no  MARR  is  set,  the  ROR  of  the  first  project  not  undertaken  
establishes  the  opportunity  cost  

§  the  loss  of  potenFal  gain  from  other  alternaFves  when  one  
alternaFve  is  chosen.  
 

 
Example:  Assume  MARR  =  10%.  Project  A,  not  funded  due  to  lack  
of  funds,  is  projected  to  have  RORA  =  13%.  Project  B  has  RORB  =  
15%  and  is  funded  because  it  costs  less  than  A  
Opportunity  cost  is  13%,  i.e.,  the  opportunity  to  make  an  
addiFonal  13%  is  forgone  by  not  funding  project  A  
58  

L-­‐1  
Rule of 72
§ A  common  quesFon  most  oHen  asked  by  investors  is:
 how  long  will  it  take  for  my  investment  to  double  in  value  

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


§  Must  have  a  known  or  assumed  compound  interest  rate  
in  advance  
§  Assume  a  rate  of  13%/year  to  illustrate….  

§ The  Rule  of  72’s  for  Interest  


§ The  approximate  Fme  for  an  investment  to  
double  in  value  given  the  compound  interest  
rate  is:  
§ EsFmated  Fme  (n)  =  72  /  i  
59  
§ For  i  =  13%  =  5.54  years  
L-­‐1  
Rule of 72
 
§ The  Rule  of  72’s  for  Interest  

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


§  Likewise  one  can  esFmate  the  requried  interest  
rate  for  an  investment  to  double  in  value  over  
Fme  as:  

§  iapproximate  =  72  /  n  

§  Assume  we  want  an  investment  to  double  in  say  3  
years.  
§  EsFmate  i  =  rate  would  be  :  72  /  3  =  24%  
60  

L-­‐1  
Chapter Summary
•  Engineering Economy fundamentals
v Time value of money
v Economic equivalence
v Introduction to capital funding and MARR

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


v Spreadsheet functions
•  Interest rate and rate of return
v Simple and compound interest
•  Cash flow estimation
v Cash flow diagrams
v End-of-period assumption
v Net cash flow
v Perspectives taken for cash flow estimation
•  Ethics
v Universal morals and personal morals
v Professional and engineering ethics (Code of Ethics) 61  

L-­‐1  
ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


Factors  :  How  Time  and  Interest  
Affect  Money  
 

62  

L-­‐1  
Chapter 1
Foundations Of
Engineering Economy

Lecture slides to accompany

Engineering Economy

© 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All


Rights Reserved
7th edition

Leland Blank
Anthony Tarquin

1-63
Chapter 1
Foundations Of
Engineering Economy

Lecture slides to accompany

Engineering Economy

© 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All


Rights Reserved
7th edition

Leland Blank
Anthony Tarquin

1-64
Chapter 1
Foundations Of
Engineering Economy

Lecture slides to accompany

Engineering Economy

© 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All


Rights Reserved
7th edition

Leland Blank
Anthony Tarquin

1-65
Chapter 1
Foundations Of
Engineering Economy

Lecture slides to accompany

Engineering Economy

© 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All


Rights Reserved
7th edition

Leland Blank
Anthony Tarquin

1-66
Example 6
Finding Future Value

67  

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


L-­‐1  
Chapter 1
Foundations Of
Engineering Economy

Lecture slides to accompany

Engineering Economy

© 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All


Rights Reserved
7th edition

Leland Blank
Anthony Tarquin

1-68
Finding Present Value
Example 7

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


69  

L-­‐1  
Finding Present/Future Value
Example 8

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


70  

L-­‐1  
Chapter 1
Foundations Of
Engineering Economy

Lecture slides to accompany

Engineering Economy

© 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All


Rights Reserved
7th edition

Leland Blank
Anthony Tarquin

1-71
Chapter 1
Foundations Of
Engineering Economy

Lecture slides to accompany

Engineering Economy

© 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All


Rights Reserved
7th edition

Leland Blank
Anthony Tarquin

1-72
Uniform Series Involving P/A
Example 9

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


73  

L-­‐1  
Chapter 1
Foundations Of
Engineering Economy

Lecture slides to accompany

Engineering Economy

© 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All


Rights Reserved
7th edition

Leland Blank
Anthony Tarquin

1-74
Uniform Series Involving F/A
Example 10

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


Example 11

75  

L-­‐1  
Chapter 1
Foundations Of
Engineering Economy

Lecture slides to accompany

Engineering Economy

© 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All


Rights Reserved
7th edition

Leland Blank
Anthony Tarquin

1-76
Chapter 1
Foundations Of
Engineering Economy

Lecture slides to accompany

Engineering Economy

© 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All


Rights Reserved
7th edition

Leland Blank
Anthony Tarquin

1-77
Converting Arithmetric Gradients to P
Equation : Arithmetic Gradient Present Worth Factor

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


P = G(P/G,i,n)

& Figure P 68 2-13

78  

L-­‐1  
Arithmetric Gradients
Example 12

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


79  

L-­‐1  
Chapter 1
Foundations Of
Engineering Economy

Lecture slides to accompany

Engineering Economy

© 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All


Rights Reserved
7th edition

Leland Blank
Anthony Tarquin

1-80
Converting Arithmetic Gradients to A
Equation : Arithmetic Gradient Uniform Series Factor

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


A = (A/G, i, n)

& Figure P 68 2-14

81  

L-­‐1  
Chapter 1
Foundations Of
Engineering Economy

Lecture slides to accompany

Engineering Economy

© 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All


Rights Reserved
7th edition

Leland Blank
Anthony Tarquin

1-82
Arithmetric Gradients
Example 13

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


83  

L-­‐1  
Chapter 1
Foundations Of
Engineering Economy

Lecture slides to accompany

Engineering Economy

© 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All


Rights Reserved
7th edition

Leland Blank
Anthony Tarquin

1-84
Chapter 1
Foundations Of
Engineering Economy

Lecture slides to accompany

Engineering Economy

© 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All


Rights Reserved
7th edition

Leland Blank
Anthony Tarquin

1-85
Example 14
Geometric Gradients

86  

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


L-­‐1  
Chapter 1
Foundations Of
Engineering Economy

Lecture slides to accompany

Engineering Economy

© 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All


Rights Reserved
7th edition

Leland Blank
Anthony Tarquin

1-87
Example 15

88  

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


L-­‐1  
Chapter 1
Foundations Of
Engineering Economy

Lecture slides to accompany

Engineering Economy

© 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All


Rights Reserved
7th edition

Leland Blank
Anthony Tarquin

1-89
Example 16

90  

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


L-­‐1  
Chapter 1
Foundations Of
Engineering Economy

Lecture slides to accompany

Engineering Economy

© 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All


Rights Reserved
7th edition

Leland Blank
Anthony Tarquin

1-91
ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


Combining  Factors  
 

92  

L-­‐1  
LEARNING OUTCOMES

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


1.  Shifted uniform series
2.  Shifted series and single
cash flows
3.  Shifted gradients

93  

L-­‐1  
Shifted Uniform Series
A shifted uniform series starts at a time other than period 1
The cash flow diagram below is an example of a shifted series

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


Series starts in period 2, not period 1

A = Given FA = ? Shifted series


usually
require the use of
0 1 2 3 4 5 multiple factors
PA = ?

Remember: When using P/A or A/P factor, PA is always one year ahead
of first A
94  
When using F/A or A/F factor, FA is in same year as last A
L-­‐1  
Example Using P/A Factor: Shifted Uniform Series
The present worth of the cash flow shown below at i = 10% is:
(a) $25,304 (b) $29,562 (c) $34,462 (d) $37,908

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


P0 = ?
P1 = ? i = 10%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Actual year
0 1 2 3 4 5 Series year

A = $10,000
Solution: (1) Use P/A factor with n = 5 (for 5 arrows) to get P1 in year 1
(2) Use P/F factor with n = 1 to move P1 back for P0 in year 0
95  
P0 = P1(P/F,10%,1) = A(P/A,10%,5)(P/F,10%,1) = 10,000(3.7908)(0.9091) = $34,462
Answer is (c) L-­‐1  
Example 17

96  

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


L-­‐1  
Example Using F/A Factor: Shifted Uniform Series

How much money would be available in year 10 if $8000 is deposited each


year in years 3 through 10 at an interest rate of 10% per year?

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


Cash flow diagram is:
i = 10%
FA = ?
Actual year
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Series year
A = $8000

Solu=on:  Re-number diagram to determine n = 8 (number of arrows)

FA = 8000(F/A,10%,8)
= 8000(11.4359)
= $91,487
97  

L-­‐1  
Example 18

98  

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


L-­‐1  
Shifted Series and Random Single Amounts
For cash flows that include uniform series and randomly placed single amounts:

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


Uniform  series  procedures  are  applied  to  the  series  
amounts  
Single  amount  formulas  are  applied  to  the  one-­‐3me  cash  flows  

The resulting values are then combined per the problem statement

The following slides illustrate the procedure


99  

L-­‐1  
Example: Series and Random Single Amounts
Find the present worth in year 0 for the cash flows
shown using an interest rate of 10% per year.
PT = ?
i = 10%

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

A = $5000
$2000

PT = ?
i = 10%
Actual year
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Series year
A = $5000
$2000
Solution:

First, re-number cash flow diagram to get n for uniform series: n = 8


100  

L-­‐1  
Example: Series and Random Single Amounts
PA
PT = ? i = 10%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Actual year

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Series year
A = $5000 $2000

Use P/A to get PA in year 2: PA = 5000(P/A,10%,8) = 5000(5.3349) = $26,675

Move  PA  back  to  year  0  using  P/F:  P0  =  26,675(P/F,10%,2)  =  26,675(0.8264)  =  $22
Move $2000 single amount back to year 0: P2000 = 2000(P/F,10%,8) = 2000(0.4665) = $933

Now, add P0 and P2000 to get PT: PT = 22,044 + 933 = $22,977

101  

L-­‐1  
Example Worked a Different Way
(Using F/A instead of P/A for uniform series)

The same re-numbered diagram from the previous slide is used

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


PT = ? FA = ?
i = 10%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

A = $5000
$2000

Solu=on:   Use F/A to get FA in actual year 10: FA = 5000(F/A,10%,8) = 5000(11.4359) = $57,180
Move  FA  back  to  year  0  using  P/F:  P0  =  57,180(P/F,10%,10)  =  57,180(0.3855)  =  $22,043    
Move $2000 single amount back to year 0: P2000 = 2000(P/F,10%,8) = 2000(0.4665) = $933
Now, add two P values to get PT: PT = 22,043 + 933 = $22,976 Same as before

As shown, there are usually multiple ways to work equivalency problems 102  

L-­‐1  
Example: Series and Random Amounts
Convert the cash flows shown below (black arrows) into
an equivalent annual worth A in years 1 through 8 (red arrows)
at i = 10% per year.

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


A=?
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 i = 10%
0 1 2 3 4 5

A = $3000
$1000

Approaches: 1. Convert all cash flows into P in year 0 and use A/P with n = 8
2. Find F in year 8 and use A/F with n = 8
Solution: Solve for F: F = 3000(F/A,10%,5) + 1000(F/P,10%,1)
= 3000(6.1051) + 1000(1.1000)
= $19,415
Find A: A = 19,415(A/F,10%,8)
= 19,415(0.08744) 103  
= $1698
L-­‐1  
Example 19

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


L-­‐1  
104  
Shifted Arithmetic Gradients

Shifted gradient begins at a time other than between periods 1 and 2

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


Present worth PG is located 2 periods before gradient starts

Must use multiple factors to find PT in actual year 0

To find equivalent A series, find PT at actual time 0 and apply (A/P,i,n)

105  

L-­‐1  
Example: Shifted Arithmetic Gradient
John  Deere  expects  the  cost  of  a  tractor  part  to  increase  by  $5  per  year  
beginning  4  years  from  now.  If  the  cost  in  years  1-­‐3  is  $60,  determine  the  
present  worth  in  year  0  of  the  cost  through  year  10  at  an  interest  rate  of  12%  

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


per  year.             i = 12%
PT = ? Actual years
0 1 2 3 4 5 10
0 1 2 3 8 Gradient years

60 60   60  
65  
70  
G=5 95  
Solu=on:   First  find  P2  for  G  =  $5  and  base  amount  ($60)  in  actual  year  2  

P2 = 60(P/A,12%,8) + 5(P/G,12%,8) = $370.41

Next, move P2 back to year 0


P0 = P2(P/F,12%,2) = $295.29

Next, find PA for the $60 amounts of years 1 and 2 PA  =  60(P/A,12%,2)  =  $101.41  
10
Finally, add P0 and PA to get PT in year 0 PT = P0 + PA = $396.70 6  
3-106 L-­‐1  
Example 20

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


L-­‐1  
107  
Shifted Geometric Gradients
Shifted gradient begins at a time other than between periods 1 and 2

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


Equation yields Pg for all cash flows (base amount A1 is included)

Equation (i ≠ g): Pg = A 1{1 - [(1+g)/(1+i)]n/(i-g)}

For negative gradient, change signs on both g values

There are no tables for geometric gradient factors 10


8  
L-­‐1  
Example: Shifted Geometric Gradient
Weirton Steel signed a 5-year contract to purchase water treatment chemicals
from a local distributor for $7000 per year. When the contract ends, the cost of
the chemicals is expected to increase by 12% per year for the next 8 years. If an

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


initial investment in storage tanks is $35,000, determine the equivalent present
worth in year 0 of all of the cash flows at i = 15% per year.

10
9  
3-109 L-­‐1  
Example: Shifted Geometric Gradient

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


Gradient starts between actual years 5 and 6; these are gradient years 1 and 2.
Pg is located in gradient year 0, which is actual year 4
Pg  =  7000{1-­‐[(1+0.12)/(1+0.15)]9/(0.15-­‐0.12)}  =  $49,401  

Move Pg and other cash flows to year 0 to calculate PT


11
PT  =  35,000  +  7000(P/A,15%,4)  +  49,401(P/F,15%,4)  =  $83,232    
0  
1-110 L-­‐1  
Negative Shifted Gradients
For negative arithmetic gradients, change sign on G term from + to -

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


General equation for determining P: P = present worth of base amount - PG

Changed from + to -

For negative geometric gradients, change signs on both g values


Changed from + to -

Pg = A1{1-[(1-g)/(1+i)]n/(i+g)}
Changed from - to +

All other procedures are the same as for positive gradients 111  

L-­‐1  
Example: Negative Shifted Arithmetic Gradient
For the cash flows shown, find the future worth in year 7 at i = 10% per year
F=?

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


PG = ? i = 10%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Actual years
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Gradient years
450
500
550
600
650
700

G = $-50
Solu=on:   Gradient G first occurs between actual years 2 and 3; these are gradient years 1 and 2
PG is located in gradient year 0 (actual year 1); base amount of $700 is in gradient years 1-6

PG = 700(P/A,10%,6) – 50(P/G,10%,6) = 700(4.3553) – 50(9.6842) = $2565

F = PG(F/P,10%,6) = 2565(1.7716) = $4544 112  

L-­‐1  
Summary of Important Points
P for shifted uniform series is one period ahead of first A;

EMR  301  –  ENGINEERING  ECONOMY  


n is equal to number of A values

F for shifted uniform series is in same period as last A;


n is equal to number of A values

For gradients, first change equal to G or g occurs


between gradient years 1 and 2

For  nega=ve  arithme=c  gradients,  change  sign  on  G  from  +    to  -­‐  

For negative geometric gradients, change sign on g from + to - 113  

L-­‐1  

Vous aimerez peut-être aussi