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Maturity US Treasury Yields Brent Crude Light Sweet Crude Oil Projected Prices for
% Futures Prices Futures Prices World Oil
1 month 12.56 14.49
3 months 4.60 12.61 14.40
6 months 4.69 12.65 14.28
1 year 4.75 12.83 14.31 16.55
2 years 4.95 13.45 14.60 16.85
3 years 5.10 13.65 14.95 17.24
4 years 15.35 17.48
5 years 5.06 15.90 17.80
7 years 5.29 18.15
10 years 5.14 18.64
20 years 20.46
30 years 5.51
Exhibit 5a: Estimated Project Economics for the Azeri, Chrag and Deepwater Gunashli Fields
AIOC Cashflows
BP Amoco Cash-flows
Proportion of BP Amoco in After Tax Profit for AIOC 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.80
less Interest Cost 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
= Profit Before Tax for BP Amoco 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.80
less Corporate Taxes of parent country @ 30% 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.94
= Profit after Tax for BP Amoco 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.86
Add Proportional share of AIOC Cost Recovery 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.67
less Capex Investment 341.00 341.00 375.10 341.00
Add Debt Issue or Redemption 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
36.50 109.50 182.50 255.50 255.50 255.50 255.50 255.50 255.50 219.00 219.00 219.00
365.00 1095.00 1825.00 2555.00 2555.00 2555.00 2555.00 2555.00 2555.00 2190.00 2190.00 2190.00
146.00 438.00 730.00 1022.00 1022.00 1022.00 1022.00 1022.00 1022.00 876.00 876.00 876.00
109.50 328.50 547.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 657.00 657.00 657.00
109.50 328.50 547.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 657.00 657.00 657.00
54.75 164.25 273.75 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 328.50 328.50 328.50
54.75 164.25 273.75 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 328.50 328.50 328.50
38.33 114.98 191.63 268.28 268.28 268.28 268.28 268.28 268.28 229.95 229.95 229.95
9.58 28.74 47.91 67.07 67.07 67.07 67.07 67.07 67.07 57.49 57.49 57.49
28.74 86.23 143.72 201.21 201.21 201.21 201.21 201.21 201.21 172.46 172.46 172.46
54.75 164.25 273.75 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 328.50 328.50 328.50
83.49 250.48 417.47 584.46 584.46 584.46 584.46 584.46 584.46 500.96 500.96 500.96
9.80 29.40 49.01 68.61 68.61 68.61 68.61 68.61 68.61 58.81 58.81 58.81
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
9.80 29.40 49.01 68.61 68.61 68.61 68.61 68.61 68.61 58.81 58.81 58.81
2.94 8.82 14.70 20.58 20.58 20.58 20.58 20.58 20.58 17.64 17.64 17.64
6.86 20.58 34.31 48.03 48.03 48.03 48.03 48.03 48.03 41.17 41.17 41.17
18.67 56.01 93.35 130.69 130.69 130.69 130.69 130.69 130.69 112.02 112.02 112.02
511.50 511.50 341.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
-485.97 -434.91 -213.35 178.72 178.72 178.72 178.72 178.72 178.72 153.19 153.19 153.19
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
182.50 182.50 182.50 146.00 146.00 146.00 73.00 36.50
AIOC Cash-flows
BP Amoco Cash-flows
Proportion of BP Amoco in After Tax Profit for AIOC 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.80 9.80
less Interest Cost 0.00 11.08 22.17 34.36 45.44
= Profit Before Tax for BP Amoco 0.00 -11.08 -22.17 -24.55 -35.64
less Corporate Taxes of parent country @ 30% 0.00 -3.32 -6.65 -7.37 -10.69
= Profit after Tax for BP Amoco 0.00 -7.76 -15.52 -17.19 -24.95
Add Proportional share of AIOC Cost Recovery 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.67 18.67
less Capex Investment 341.00 341.00 375.10 341.00 511.50
Add Debt Issue or Redemption 170.50 170.50 187.55 170.50 255.75
= Cashflow Available to Equity Shareholders of BP Amoco -170.50 -178.26 -203.07 -169.02 -262.03
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
109.50 182.50 255.50 255.50 255.50 255.50 255.50 255.50 219.00 219.00 219.00 182.50
1095.00 1825.00 2555.00 2555.00 2555.00 2555.00 2555.00 2555.00 2190.00 2190.00 2190.00 1825.00
438.00 730.00 1022.00 1022.00 1022.00 1022.00 1022.00 1022.00 876.00 876.00 876.00 730.00
328.50 547.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 657.00 657.00 657.00 547.50
328.50 547.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 657.00 657.00 657.00 547.50
164.25 273.75 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 328.50 328.50 328.50 273.75
164.25 273.75 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 328.50 328.50 328.50 273.75
114.98 191.63 268.28 268.28 268.28 268.28 268.28 268.28 229.95 229.95 229.95 191.63
28.74 47.91 67.07 67.07 67.07 67.07 67.07 67.07 57.49 57.49 57.49 47.91
86.23 143.72 201.21 201.21 201.21 201.21 201.21 201.21 172.46 172.46 172.46 143.72
164.25 273.75 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 328.50 328.50 328.50 273.75
250.48 417.47 584.46 584.46 584.46 584.46 584.46 584.46 500.96 500.96 500.96 417.47
29.40 49.01 68.61 68.61 68.61 68.61 68.61 68.61 58.81 58.81 58.81 49.01
62.06 78.69 89.77 84.49 79.21 73.93 68.65 63.37 58.09 52.80 47.52 42.24
-32.66 -29.68 -21.16 -15.88 -10.60 -5.32 -0.03 5.25 0.72 6.00 11.29 6.76
-9.80 -8.90 -6.35 -4.76 -3.18 -1.59 -0.01 1.57 0.22 1.80 3.39 2.03
-22.86 -20.77 -14.81 -11.11 -7.42 -3.72 -0.02 3.67 0.51 4.20 7.90 4.73
56.01 93.35 130.69 130.69 130.69 130.69 130.69 130.69 112.02 112.02 112.02 93.35
511.50 341.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
255.75 170.50 -81.24 -81.24 -81.24 -81.24 -81.24 -81.24 -81.24 -81.24 -81.24 -81.24
-222.60 -97.93 34.64 38.34 42.03 45.73 49.43 53.12 31.29 34.98 38.68 16.85
1210.55 1381.05 1299.81 1218.57 1137.34 1056.10 974.86 893.62 812.38 731.14 649.91 568.67
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
182.50 182.50 146.00 146.00 146.00 73.00 36.50
AIOC Cash-flows
MIG Cashflows
BP Amoco Cash-flows
Proportion of BP Amoco in Residual Profit of MIG @ 50% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
less Interest Cost 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
= Profit Before Tax for BP Amoco 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
less Corporate Taxes of parent country @ 30% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
= Profit after Tax for BP Amoco 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Add Proportional share of MIG Cost Recovery 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.86
less Equity Investment 172.25 172.25 189.48 172.25
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
36.50 109.50 182.50 255.50 255.50 255.50 255.50 255.50 255.50 219.00 219.00 219.00
365.00 1095.00 1825.00 2555.00 2555.00 2555.00 2555.00 2555.00 2555.00 2190.00 2190.00 2190.00
146.00 438.00 730.00 1022.00 1022.00 1022.00 1022.00 1022.00 1022.00 876.00 876.00 876.00
109.50 328.50 547.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 657.00 657.00 657.00
109.50 328.50 547.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 657.00 657.00 657.00
54.75 164.25 273.75 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 328.50 328.50 328.50
54.75 164.25 273.75 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 328.50 328.50 328.50
38.33 114.98 191.63 268.28 268.28 268.28 268.28 268.28 268.28 229.95 229.95 229.95
9.58 28.74 47.91 67.07 67.07 67.07 67.07 67.07 67.07 57.49 57.49 57.49
28.74 86.23 143.72 201.21 201.21 201.21 201.21 201.21 201.21 172.46 172.46 172.46
54.75 164.25 273.75 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 328.50 328.50 328.50
83.49 250.48 417.47 584.46 584.46 584.46 584.46 584.46 584.46 500.96 500.96 500.96
26.41 79.22 132.03 184.84 184.84 184.84 184.84 184.84 184.84 158.44 158.44 158.44
141.25 192.92 244.60 279.05 262.63 246.22 229.80 213.39 196.97 180.56 164.14 147.73
-114.84 -113.70 -112.57 -94.20 -77.79 -61.37 -44.96 -28.55 -12.13 -22.12 -5.71 10.71
37.72 113.17 188.61 264.06 264.06 264.06 264.06 264.06 264.06 226.34 226.34 226.34
516.75 516.75 344.50 -164.14 -164.14 -164.14 -164.14 -164.14 -164.14 -164.14 -164.14 -164.14
1033.50 1033.50 689.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
-593.87 -517.28 -268.45 5.71 22.13 38.54 54.95 71.37 87.78 40.07 56.48 72.90
1929.20 2445.95 2790.45 2626.31 2462.16 2298.02 2133.87 1969.73 1805.59 1641.44 1477.30 1313.15
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.35
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.35
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.61
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.75
18.86 56.58 94.31 132.03 132.03 132.03 132.03 132.03 132.03 113.17 113.17 113.17
258.38 258.38 172.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
-239.51 -201.79 -77.94 132.03 132.03 132.03 132.03 132.03 132.03 113.17 113.17 116.92
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
182.50 182.50 182.50 146.00 146.00 146.00 73.00 36.50