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IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
1. Ensure that the company whose data you are downloading has numbers at least starting from FY08 (March 2008). This is be
from, say, FY10, you will see incorrect data for FY08 and FY09 (which will be of Hero Motocorp on whose financials I have crea
2. All financial data of your chosen company will be automatically updated in the sheet you download, except "Cash and Bank"
figures, which you must update manually from the company's annual reports. Don’t forget to make these changes as these num
3. You may update the sheet and add your own analysis, formulae etc. and then upload again to Screener.in site using the Step
"Data Sheet" because this will cause errors in your future downloads.
4. DON’T touch any cell except the black ones, where you are required to update the numbers manually from Annual Reports (j
the growth assumptions etc.
4. I have added Comments and Instructions wherever necessary so as to explain the concepts. Read those carefully before wo
5. This sheet is not a replacement of the work required to read annual reports as part of the analysis process. So please do tha
some discrepancy in numbers (though rare), but you will know this only when you read annual reports.
6. I could not find a bug/errors in this spreadsheet, but if you notice some, please email me at - vishal@safalniveshak.com - and
7. I will keep on updating the sheet from time to time and will update the same on the website. I invite you to share your feedba
together.
8. This excel won't work for banking and financial services companies.
Conclusion
Never Forget
Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation
Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
makes the product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their
unique niche. However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with
traditionally high margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms.
Also look for strong growth in earnings and high return on equity in the past.
Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to
construct a quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing
those companies that operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can
increase the size of the circle, but only over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the
circle is to know its boundaries.
Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies
tend to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios.
Also seek companies that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.
Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding
earnings (profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe
balance sheets). To help indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years
earnings growth rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the
consistency in such growth. So exclude companies with volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average"
growth has been high.
Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within
its circle of competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company,
look at the company’s past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of
operations for the firm. Be cautious of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.
Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While
we do not screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in
place.
Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been
employed profitably. A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent
earnings and strong return on equity in the past.
Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity
without employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately
16%. Thus, seek companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.
That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above
(like high ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing
significant volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad
for an investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained
earnings must first go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to
maintain current operations, the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against
competitors will help a lot. Seek companies that consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.
Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait
for the folly of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble
understanding this philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and
follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks successfully.
Net Block 207 806 1,528 1,457 1,318 1,243 1,147 1,086 1,001 1,035
Capital Work in Progress 1,120 747 0 5 3 5 2 3 6 3
Investments 46 47 47 47 47 47 47 1 1 1
Other Assets 616 515 579 699 666 870 797 717 624 692
Total 1,989 2,114 2,155 2,207 2,033 2,164 1,993 1,807 1,632 1,731
Working Capital 292 172 243 325 311 368 313 170 75 115
Debtors 43 34 73 73 82 101 125 118 128 119
Inventory 144 179 201 313 301 488 483 375 283 343
Cash & Bank** 4,735 3,367 3,190 3,393 2,605 3,546 4,739 5,829
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use Cash+Bank+Current Investments from Consolidated Balance Sheet in Annual Reports
Debtor Days 26 20 25 20 21 24 28 25 26 25
Inventory Turnover 4 3 5 4 5 3 3 5 6 5
Fixed Asset Turnover 3.0 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.7
Debt/Equity 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.4 0.7 0.4
Return on Equity 18% 10% 15% -6% 3% 1% 0% 0% 20% 27%
Return on Capital Employed 6% 5% 8% 1% 6% 5% 5% 7% 21% 23%
Profit & Loss Account / Income Statement
WEST COAST PAPER MILLS LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Trailing
Sales 620 624 1,071 1,305 1,455 1,562 1,648 1,700 1,769 1,710 1,893
% Growth YOY 1% 72% 22% 11% 7% 6% 3% 4% -3%
Expenses 500 513 832 1,079 1,186 1,353 1,403 1,451 1,431 1,347 1,406
Material Cost (% of Sales) 37% 36% 48% 54% 55% 64% 59% 57% 56% 53% Check for wide fluctuations in key
Power and Fuel 12% 12% 13% 11% 10% 11% 10% 9% 9% 10% expense items. For manufacturing
Other Mfr. Exp 20% 20% 8% 8% 7% 8% 7% 7% 5% 5% firms, check their material costs etc. For
Employee Cost 9% 9% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% services firms, look at employee costs.
Selling and Admin Cost 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Operating Profit 120 111 239 226 269 209 245 250 338 363 488
Operating Profit Margin 19% 18% 22% 17% 18% 13% 15% 15% 19% 21% 26%
Other Income 8 6 6 -58 -35 5 -48 -46 2 18 20
Other Income as % of Sales 1.3% 1.0% 0.6% -4.5% -2.4% 0.3% -2.9% -2.7% 0.1% 1.1% 1.0%
Depreciation 20 24 96 143 136 127 122 114 111 116 160
Interest 8 12 56 72 73 73 70 76 52 42 41
Interest Coverage(Times) 14 8 3 0 1 1 1 1 4 6 8
Profit before tax (PBT) 100 81 93 -47 25 14 5 14 178 223 307
% Growth YOY -19% 14% -150% -153% -43% -66% 192% 1190% 25%
PBT Margin 16% 13% 9% -4% 2% 1% 0% 1% 10% 13% 16%
Tax 10 27 3 -13 6 7 4 14 49 -1 -12
Net profit 91 55 90 -34 18 7 1 -0 129 223 319
% Growth YOY -40% 65% -137% -154% -63% -83% -142% ### 74%
Net Profit Margin 15% 9% 8% -3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 7% 13% 17%
EPS 15.0 8.7 14.4 -5.3 2.7 1.0 0.2 -0.1 19.5 33.8 48.3
% Growth YOY -42% 65% -137% -151% -63% -83% -142% ### 74%
Price to earning 2.8 9.0 6.6 -9.7 23.2 54.2 314.4 ### 10.1 8.3 5.6
Price 42 78 95 52 64 55 53 76 197 282 272
Dividend Payout 13.3% 22.9% 13.9% 0.0% 36.5% 99.7% 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 11.8%
Market Cap 255 491 596 325 420 360 349 499 1,298 1,861
Retained Earnings 78 42 78 -34 12 0 1 -0 112 197
Buffett's $1 Test 3.3
Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over
past 3 or 5 years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7
to 10 years) growth numbers.
Cash Flow Statement
WEST COAST PAPER MILLS LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Total
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) 65 35 70 183 263 150 257 98 434 326 1,880
% Growth YoY -46% 99% 163% 44% -43% 72% -62% 342% -25%
Cash from Investing Activity -804 -249 -67 -138 -32 -51 -22 34 -39 -139 -1,506
Cash from Financing Activity 837 46 -43 -107 -239 -96 -230 -132 -394 -194 -553
Net Cash Flow 98 -168 -41 -62 -8 3 4 -1 1 -7 -179
CFO/Sales 10% 6% 6% 14% 18% 10% 16% 6% 25% 19%
CFO/Net Profit 71% 64% 77% -545% 1450% 2248% 23132% ### 338% 146%
Capex** 315 212 364 565 607 937 1,156 1,638 1,238 824
FCF -250 -177 -295 -382 -344 -788 -899 -1,540 -804 -498 -5,976
Average FCF (3 Years) -947
FCF Growth YoY -29% 67% 30% -10% 129% 14% 71% -48% -38%
FCF/Sales -40% -28% -28% -29% -24% -50% -55% -91% -45% -29%
FCF/Net Profit -277% -323% -327% 1138% -1901% ### ### ### -626% -223%
Operating Margin 19.4% 17.8% 22.3% 17.3% 18.5% 13.4% 14.9% 14.7% 19.1%
PBT Margin 16.2% 13.1% 8.7% -3.6% 1.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.8% 10.1%
Net Margin 14.6% 8.8% 8.4% -2.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 7.3%
Debtor Days 25.6 20.0 24.9 20.4 20.7 23.6 27.7 25.3 26.5
Inventory Turnover 4.3 3.5 5.3 4.2 4.8 3.2 3.4 4.5 6.3
Fixed Asset Turnover 3.0 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.8
Debt/Equity 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.4 0.7
Debt/Assets 59.0% 58.4% 56.3% 57.3% 53.2% 49.3% 45.7% 41.2% 27.2%
Interest Coverage (Times) 14.0 7.7 2.7 0.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 4.4
Return on Equity 18.4% 10.2% 14.9% -5.9% 3.0% 1.1% 0.2% -0.1% 20.1%
Return on Capital Employed 6.5% 5.3% 8.2% 1.4% 5.8% 5.2% 4.9% 7.1% 21.2%
Free Cash Flow (Rs Cr) -250 -177 -295 -382 -344 -788 -899 -1,540 -804
Mar/18
-3.3%
25.1%
73.7%
60.0%
-24.9%
-38.0%
21.2%
13.0%
13.1%
25.4
5.0
1.7
0.4
18.2%
6.3
26.6%
23.0%
-498
What to look for?
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher isn't always better, esp. when the company is generating high ROE, which means the management is allocating capital
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
2,000
Revenue Revenue and Pro
5000%
Check for a ris
1,800 Check for a rising trend. Compare grow
0%
1,600
Jan/10 Jan/12
1,400 -5000%
1,200
-10000%
1,000
800 -15000%
600 -20000%
400
200 -25000%
- -30000%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Revenue Growt
Net Profit Grow
Management Effectiveness
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
ROE 18% 10% 15% -6% 3% 1% 0% 0% 20%
ROCE 6% 5% 8% 1% 6% 5% 5% 7% 21%
Cash Flows
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Operating Cash Flow 65 35 70 183 263 150 257 98 434
Free Cash Flow -250 -177 -295 -382 -344 -788 -899 -1,540 -804
%
Capital Allocation Quality
Check for a rising trend and/or consistency.
% Numbers > 20% long term are good. Also check if the company
% has zero/marginal debt. Compare with a close competitor Note: Please ignore the dates
% on the X-axis. The figures are
% for/as on the year ending date,
which for most Indian
% companies would be 31st
% March of that year
%Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17
%
ROE ROCE
-
0 Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17
0
0
0
Mar/18
27%
23%
Mar/18
1,710
223
223
Mar/18
326
-498
Common Size P&L
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost 37% 36% 48% 54% 55% 64% 59% 57% 56% 53%
Change in Inventory 2% -1% 0% 1% -1% 5% -1% -2% -1% 0%
Power and Fuel 12% 12% 13% 11% 10% 11% 10% 9% 9% 10%
Other Mfr. Exp 20% 20% 8% 8% 7% 8% 7% 7% 5% 5%
Employee Cost 9% 9% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7%
Selling and Admin Cost 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Other Expenses 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Operating Profit 16% 20% 21% 15% 20% 4% 17% 20% 22% 22%
Other Income 1% 1% 1% -4% -2% 0% -3% -3% 0% 1%
Depreciation 3% 4% 9% 11% 9% 8% 7% 7% 6% 7%
Interest 1% 2% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 2%
Profit Before Tax 16% 13% 9% -4% 2% 1% 0% 1% 10% 13%
Tax 2% 4% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 3% 0%
Net Profit 15% 9% 8% -3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 7% 13%
Dividend Amount 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2%
P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as
starting number. This number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the his
this business while arriving at your assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of
Calculation
by Mohnish Pabrai
Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 71.8 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate 32.6 Long-Term Growth Rate
Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) 5,296 Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 1,798 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)
EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10
71.8
8.5
65.3
9,982
1,798
e of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this nu
e present, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
WEST COAST PAPER MILLS LTD
Final Calculations
Terminal Year (3,425)
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows ###
Terminal Value ###
Total PV of Cash Flows ###
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 1,798
META
Number of shares 6.60
Face Value 2
Current Price 272.15
Market Capitalization 1797.55
Quarters
Report Date Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17
Sales 445.69 439.45 474.97 386.52 421.53 408.58
Expenses 365.98 352.25 378.29 303.84 338.17 335.53
Other Income 0.1 0.04 1.72 3.09 0.75 8.77
Depreciation 27.4 27.45 28.83 26.2 28.01 28.68
Interest 13.04 11.76 6.2 7.98 11.61 5.32
Profit before tax 39.37 48.03 63.37 51.59 44.49 47.82
Tax 13.93 10.62 12.65 -2.12 -3.3 4.87
Net profit 25.44 37.41 50.72 53.71 47.79 42.95
Operating Profit 79.71 87.2 96.68 82.68 83.36 73.05
BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Equity Share Capital 12.08 12.55 12.55 12.55 13.21 13.21
Reserves 479.2 523.78 592.93 556.98 584.55 583.45
Borrowings 1173.65 1234.71 1212.46 1263.66 1080.63 1066.08
Other Liabilities 324.43 343.23 336.59 373.53 354.5 501.65
Total 1989.36 2114.27 2154.53 2206.72 2032.89 2164.39
Net Block 206.82 805.62 1528.31 1456.79 1317.67 1242.74
Capital Work in Progress 1120.04 746.9 0.09 4.57 2.64 4.92
Investments 46.05 46.71 46.71 46.71 46.71 46.71
Other Assets 616.45 515.04 579.42 698.65 665.87 870.02
Total 1989.36 2114.27 2154.53 2206.72 2032.89 2164.39
Receivables 43.4 34.24 73.16 72.85 82.36 100.92
Inventory 143.68 179.06 200.95 313.29 300.7 487.94
Cash & Bank 284.44 116.59 75.79 14.13 5.78 9.13
No. of Equity Shares 60375330 62748908 62748908 62748908 66048908 66048908
New Bonus Shares
Face value 2 2 2 2 2 2
CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Cash from Operating Activity 64.6 34.9 69.54 183.05 262.68 149.5
Cash from Investing Activity -803.63 -249.09 -66.95 -137.54 -31.82 -50.64
Cash from Financing Activity 837.14 46.35 -43.39 -107.17 -239.21 -95.5
Net Cash Flow 98.11 -167.84 -40.8 -61.66 -8.35 3.36
DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 6.04 6.27 6.27 6.27 6.60 6.60
DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET
2 2 2 2
TESTING:
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You can report any formula errors on the worksheet at: screener.feedback@dalal-street.in
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