Global Vegetable Oils Supply, Demand

and Price Outlook

Presentation at the 13th Indonesian Palm Oil Conference and 2018 Price Outlook
on November 3, 2017

Thomas Mielke, ISTA Mielke, Oil World,

Global Market Research on Oilseeds, Oils and Meals

Feel free to contact me for assistance at <thomas.mielke@oilworld.de>

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 17 OILS & FATS: Exports of Major Countries (Mn T)
30
Indonesia is in the
focus:
25
The country has become Indonesia
by far the world largest 20
exporter of oils & fats

Today Indonesia is the 15

world‘s largest producer
Malaysia
of palm oil (36 Mn T ),
10
and - in about 2 years – Argentina
will produce double the 5
quantity of Malaysia
U.S.A.
Canada Ukraine
0
96/97 99/00 02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12 14/15 17/18F

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 Monthly Prices Crude Palm Oil, fob Indonesia (US-$/T)
Monthly averages until October 2017
800

750 2016

700

650 2017

600

550

500
2015
450
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

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 Monthly Prices (US-$/T)
1450
1300
1150
1000
850
700
550
400
250 Palm oil, c rud e, c if R otterda m
C rude m inera l oi l
100
Ja0 3Ja0 4 Ja0 5Ja0 6 Ja0 7 Ja0 8Ja0 9 Ja1 0 Ja1 1Ja1 2 Ja1 3Ja1 4 Ja1 5 Ja1 6Ja1 7

Monthly prices from Jan 2003 u ntil Oct 20 17

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 The Global Market of Oilseeds and Products

The Overall Target is the Satisfaction of Demand

(mainly for food and for feed; biodiesel production to be
curbed, if necessary)

The major drivers for production are to be seen in

the demand (which is rising) and in prices.

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 The Global Market of Oilseeds and Products

The Overall Target is the Satisfaction of Demand

(mainly for food and for feed; biodiesel to be curbed)

The major drivers for production are to be seen in the demand

(which is rising) and in prices.

Prices have to be sufficiently attractive for

producers to invest and expand.

But limitations in resources (land, water, etc).

Plus weather risk and political framework.

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 Which factors will influence
demand for and prices of
palm oil and palmkernel oil in 2018?

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 Global Production of 10 Oilseeds
Global Impacts from
Oilseeds 2017/18 -- 563 Mn T
10 Oilseeds, by country
In the past 20 years
India 6%

- world output of Soybeans 62%

China 8%

soybeans more than Argentina 11%

doubled from 158 Mn T

Brazil 19%
in 1996/97 to an
Other 3 Oilseeds 2%
estimated 349 Mn T in
2016/17 Copra & Palmkernels 4% Canada & U.S.A. 28%

-and of 10 oilseeds Groundnuts 5% C.I.S. 7%

from 255 to 560 Mn T EU-28 6%

Cottonseed 8% Other ctries 14%

Rapeseed 11%

Sunseed 9%

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 World Soybean Usage (a) (Mn T)
350
(a) Crush, seed, feed & other uses.
300
World
250

200

150

100
China
50

0
03 /0 4 05 /0 6 07 /0 8 0 9/1 0 11 /12 13 /14 15 /16 17 /18 F

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 CHINA: Oilseed Output & Crushings
120
Production (Mn T)
110
Crushings (Mn T)
100
90
80
70
60

Imports of Soybeans (Mn T) 50

40
100
China 30
90 20
Rest of world
80 99/00 02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12 14/15 17/18F

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
96/ 97 98/ 99 00 /01 02 /03 04 /05 06 /07 08 /09 10/ 11 12/ 13 14/ 15 16/ 17
95/ 96 97/ 98 99/ 00 01 /02 03 /04 05 /06 07 /08 09 /10 11/ 12 13/ 14 15/ 16 17/ 18
Octo ber/S ep temb er

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 Daily Soybean Futures
Da lian Com m od ity E x ch an ge -- in C N-Yu an/ T (J an 201 8 p os it ion )
4 30 0

4 20 0

4 10 0

4 00 0

3 90 0

3 80 0

3 70 0

3 60 0

3 50 0
J an Feb Ma r A pr Ma y J un J ly A ug S ept Nov
Daily f uture s f rom 3 J an 20 17 u ntil 1 Nov 20 17

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 Soybean Crop Trend Since 74/75 (Mn T)
S. American 180
soybean
crop may 160
plunge in
140
early 2018
120

Uncertainty 100

80
In past few
years U.S.A.
60
sizeable
yield jump 40
Argentina, Brazil & Paraguay
20

0
75/76 81/82 87/88 93/94 99/00 04/05 10/11 17/18F

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Severe dryness on
35-40% of the
Braz soya area,
which delayed by
2-3 weeks in
Central Brazil

In parts of
Argentina too wet

Latest forecasts of
Nov 2 suggests
less than required
rainfall in Nov.
3rd month in a row

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 La Niña Watch
For Nov/Jan 17/18 70%
there is now a Aug ust f cst
66% probability Sep temb er f c st
60%
Oc tober f cst
that La Nina
conditions develop 50%
(in contrast to 26%
probability 2 mths 40%
ago).
30%
Likely effects:
- wet in C. Braz 20%
- dry in S. Brazil
- dry in Argentina,
10%
Paraguay & Urug.
0
ASO 2017 OND 2017 DJF 2017 FMA 2018 AMJ 2018
JAS 2017 SON 2017 NDJ 2017 JFM 2018 MAM 2018 MJJ 2018

T I M E P E R I O D

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Despite a slight 10 Oilseeds: World Production (Mn T)
decline in 17/18, 360
world soybean 340
production 320 Soybeans
300
will still be
280
sufficient to
260
satisfy another
240
above average
growth in 220
200
demand by 14 180
Other 9 oilseeds
Mn T without 160
reducing stocks 140
120
100
99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18F

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Ample world So y be a n s : W o rld Sto c k s a s o f e nd -A u gu s t (Mn T )
soybean supplies, 100
if our current crop 90
estimates
80
materialize.
70
But major weather
60
risks.
50
One additional 40
swing factor to
watch: Farmer 30
selling. 20
New market factor.
10

0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018F

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 CBOT: Daily Soybean Futures (c/bu)
1060

1040

1020

1000

980

960

940
March 2018
920
50-day moving average
900
Ja17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sept Oct
Da ily fut ures f rom 2 Ja n 2 017 u ntil 2 N ov 20 17

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 CBOT: Daily Soybean Futures (c/bu)
1060

1040

1020
CBOT: Daily Ratio of Soybeans vs. Corn
1000
Nov 2017 position vs. Dec 2017
980 3
960

940 2.8
March 2018
920
50-day moving average
900
2.6
Ja17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sept Oct
Da ily fut ures f rom 2 Ja n 2 017 u ntil 2 N ov 20 17

2.4

2.2
Ja17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct
Daily ratios from 3 Jan 2017 until 31 Oct 2017

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 CBOT: Daily Soya Oil Futures (c/lb)
37
March 2018
36
50-day moving average

35

CBOT: Daily Soya Meal Futures ($/ST)

34
360

33
340
32

320 31
Feb M ar A pr M ay Jun Jly A ug S ept O ct
Da ily f uture s fro m 1 Feb 20 17 until 31 Oct 2 01 7
300
March 2018
50-day moving average
280
Feb M ar A pr M ay Jun Jly A ug S ept O ct
Da ily f uture s fro m 1 Feb 20 17 until 31 Oct 2 01 7

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World production RAPESEED & CANOLA
of rapeseed World Production (Mn T) and Area (Mn ha)
declining again in 70
2017/18. 65
Production
60
Reduced
availability of 55
rapeseed oil. 50
45
40
Also
35
sunflowerseed and
30
sun oil supplies Harvested Area
will drop in 17/18, 25
but not as sharply 20
as expected 15
97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18F
96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17

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Further boost in 10 Oilseeds : World Crushings (Mn T)
world soybean crush 300
required in 2017/18 280
(up 12 Mn T): 260
240
Soybeans
1) rising demand
220
2) insufficient 200
supplies of other 180
seeds, and 160
140 9 other seeds
3) Still comparatively 120
low stocks of veg oils
100
80
01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18F
Creating an oilmeal 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17
surplus October / S eptem ber
and a rising oil share

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Very large usage SOYA MEAL: World Disappearance
of soya meal.
Year-On-Y ear Change (Mn T)
20
55 Mn T growth 18
in 5 years to 16
2017/18, or 11.1 14
Mn T per annum!! 12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
0 4 /0 5 0 6 /0 7 0 8 /0 9 1 0 /1 1 1 2 /1 3 1 4 /1 5 1 6 /1 7
0 3 /0 4 0 5 /0 6 0 7 /0 8 0 9 /1 0 1 1 /1 2 1 3 /1 4 1 5 /1 6 1 7 /1 8 F

Oct ober /S ept em ber

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Rapidly Rising World Demand
of Oils & Fats
17 Oils & Fats : World Consumption
Total Usage in Mn T
240
Average demand growth 220
in past 5 seasons: 200
180
160
Total per year +6.5 Mn T 140
120
Biofuel +1.7 Mn T 100
Food/other +4.8 Mn T 80
60
40 biofuel food and other
20
0
92/93 98/99 04/05 10/11 16/17
89/90 95/96 01/02 07/08 13/14

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Up 156%
World Production of 17 Oils & Fats
in 25 years 2017/18F - - 224.1 Mn T 1991/92 - - 83.5 Mn T

Average annual
Palm Oil 14,2%
increase
of 5.2 Mn T Rape Oil 11,4%
Soya Oil 20,1%
Palm Oil 30,7%
Soya Oil 24,9%
Palm oil Sun Oil 9,9%
account
Rape Oil 11,3%
for 40% of PKO&CNO 5,2%

the increase
Sun Oil 8,2% Others/An.Fats 39,3%
(+2.1 Mn p.a.)
Others/An.Fats 20,3%
PKO&CNO 4,6%

Palm oil output forecast at

69 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2017/18

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 Palm oil

is of major importance in the

global oils & fats market

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Sizeable increase in palm oil imports (up 4.5 Mn T in Jan/Dec 2017)

17 OILS & FATS : World Production (Mn T)

70
Palm oil
60

50
17 OILS & FATS : World Exports (Mn T)
40 50
Soya oil
Soy, Rape, Sun Oils
45
30 4 Animal Fats
4 Animal Fats 40 Palm Oil
9 Other
20 35
9 Ot her oils Rape oil
30
10
25
Sun oil
0 20
96/97 99/00 02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12 14/15 17/18F 15
10
5
0
02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12 14/15 17/18F

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We at Oil World estimate
Indian imports in Oct/Sept INDIA: Oilseed Crops and Imports of Oils (Mn T)
2017/18 in 1000 T: 64 16
60
56
Imports of Oils 14
Palm oil 9.7 (9.37 in 16/17) 52
48 12
Soya oil 3.6 (vs 3.47) 44
40 10
36
Sun oil 2.3 (vs 2.14) 32 8
28 Crops
Other 0.4 (vs. 0.4) 24 6
20
16 4
12
8 2
4
0 0
01/02 05/06 09/10 13/14 17/18F
99/00 03/04 07/08 11/12 15/16

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2016: Palm Oil Production 1980 - 2017
-6% = -3.8 Mn T
in Major Countries (Mn T)
1998: 70
-5% = -0.8 Mn T Malaysia
60 Indonesia
Effects of El Nino
50 Rest of W orld

40

30

20

10

0
1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

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INDONESIA : Balance of Palm Oil ( Mn T )
Jan uary / Dec emb er
2017F 2016 2015 2014
Op’g stocks 3.11* 3.45* 3.64* 3.65*
Production . 36.30* 32.20* 33.40* 31.50*
Imports . . . . .02* .01 .02 .01
INDONESIA: Biodiesel Production
Exports . . . . 26.95* 23.36 26.55 22.95 2
Mn T allocation quota
Dom. usage 9.20* 9.19* 7.06* 8.57*
Biodiesel. . 3.00* 3.18* 1.22* 2.92* reported/est. production
Other use . 6.20* 6.01* 5.84* 5.65* 1,5
End. stocks . 3.28* 3.11* 3.45* 3.64*

Indonesian palm oil production

forecast at 38.3 Mn T in 2018 0,5
from a mature area of 10.0 Mn ha

0
My/Oct 16 My/Oct 17
Nov/Ap 15/16 Nov/Ap 16/17 Nov/Ap 17/18

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MALAYSIA : Balance of Palm Oil ( Mn T )
Janu ary /D ece mbe r
2017F 2016 2015 2014
Op’g stocks 1.67 2.63 2.02 1.99
Production . 19.50* 17.32 19.96 19.67
Imports . . . . .62* .42 1.03 .49
Exports . . . . 16.90* 16.05 17.45 17.31
Dom. usage 2.74* 2.66 2.92 2.82
End. stocks . 2.15* 1.67 2.63 2.02
MALAYSIA: Annual Palm Oil Yields (T/ha)
4,8

Malaysian palm oil yields per 4,6

ha on a downtrend for the T/ha
4,4
average of the past 9 years ! !
4,2

4
This is contrary to the sizeably
rising yields of soybeans, 3,8
rapeseed and sunflowerseed 3,6
in key exporting countries 3,4

3,2

3
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18

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Malaysian palm oil output and
stocks lower than expected The labour shortage contributed
to reduction of palm oil yields
below potential.

Longer harvest intervals, less

loose-fruit collection and delayed
replanting

In the 10 years to 2016 wages for

Malaysian plantation employees
virtually doubled, thus
significantly raising production
costs!

Lack of replanting

Insufficient fertilizer application

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Longer Term Outlook - - Big Challenges Ahead
PALM OIL : World Production by Major Countries ( Mn T )
Projections
Production 2025F 2017F 2016 2015 2010 2005
Indonesia 48.00* 36.30* 32.20 33.40 22.50 14.10
Malaysia 23.10* 19.50* 17.32 19.96 16.99 14.96
Oth ctrs. 14.20* 10.62* 9.48 9.44 6.80 5.11

WORLD 85.30* 66.42* 59.00 62.80 46.29 34.17

PALM OIL : World Consumption with Breakdown by Major Countries ( Mn T )

there somebody to pick me up tomorrow at
Projections
the airport
January / December
2025F 2017F 2016 2015 2010 2005
Indonesia 13.80* 9.20* 9.19 7.06 5.46 3.55
Malaysia 3.75* 2.74* 2.66 2.92 2.18 1.97
EU-28 6.92* 7.25* 7.05 7.25 5.75 4.38
U.S.A. 1.80* 1.30* 1.23 1.07 0.86 0.38
India 13.50* 9.60* 9.22 9.25 6.72 3.31
China, PR 7.17* 5.20* 5.13 5.73 5.83 4.34
Pakistan 3.40* 2.70* 2.62 2.57 1.99 1.55
Oth ctrs 34.76* 26.91* 25.50 24.96 17.82 14.18
WORLD 85.10* 64.90* 62.60 60.81 46.61 33.66

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 Concluding Statements
World stocks of oils &
fats are still World Stocks in Percent of Annual Usage (%)
comparatively small 22

But ample supplies of 20

soybeans keep a lid on
18
prices
South American crop 16
prospects are a key
price factor to watch 14

On the assumption of 12

about normal weather 17 oils & fats

10
from now on, 10 oilse eds
we forecast a recovery 8
of oils & fats stocks by 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018F
about 2 Mn T in 2017/18
At the end of the season

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Summary 17 Oils & Fats (Mn T): 17 OILS & FATS: Output, Supplies & Use
Chan ge F rom Year Ag o in Mn T
P ro du ctio n
World production (Oct/Sept) 16
S up p lie s ( op . stocks+p ro d .)
224.1 (up 7.2 Mn) in 2017/18 14 Co ns um ptio n
versus 216.9 in 2016/17 12
10
World supplies
8
250.8 (up 7.9 Mn) vs 242.9
6
Consumption 4
221.9 (up 5.8 Mn) vs 216.1 2
0
Ending stocks are seen rising in -2
2017/18 to 28.7 Mn T from 26.7 a -4
year earlier 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17
09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18F
O ct o b e r / S e p t e m b e r

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This year prices of
palm oil made their
Monthly Prices of 4 Oils (in US-$/T)
lows in July. 1100 S B O D u tc h

S u n o il E U
R a p e oil D u t c h
Supply and demand 1000
C P O c if R 'd a m
fundamentals
contributed to the 900
recovery
800
Rapeseed oil is still
firm and at a premium 700
to soya oil
600
Sun oil prices have
weakened of late as 500
production better than
expected. World sun oil 2014 2015 2016
400
exports still up from 2 4 6 8 10 12 2 4 6 8 10 12 2 4 6 8 10 12 2 4 6 8 10
last year in Oct/Dec 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9
2017.
January 2014 until Oct 2017

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Some price pressure
likely in palm oil and Daily Prices of Crude Soya Oil & Palm Oil (US-$/T)
soya oil in the next 4-8
900
weeks
I consider it likely that 850
prices drop by
$ 30-40 until end-Dec 800

In Jan/March 2018 750

world veg oil output
will be seasonally low 700
and stocks decline,
resulting in a price 650
appreciation
600
But, assuming normal Soya oil, fob Arg.
weather, a production 550
surplus of palm oil is
Palm oil, crude, fob Indo.
likely in Apr/Sept 2018, 500
Ja 16 Mar Jly Sep Ja 17 Mar Jly Sep
leading to some
limited price pressure Daily prices from 4 Jan 2016 until 31 Oct 2017

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Likewise, I expect
some downward MALAYSIA: Crude Palm Oil Futures Close
correction in crude First position in Malaysian Ringgit/T
palm oil futures on 3300
the BMD in the next 3200
4-8 weeks,
3100
but not below 2650 3000
2900
World palm oil 2800
production is likely to
2700
exceed consumption
by 1.3-1.8 Mn T in 2600
Oct/Sept 17/18. 2500
Stocks set to recover. 2400
2300
2200
Apr MayJun Jly Aug SepOct Nov Dec Jan FebMar AprMay Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct
Prices from 1 April 2016 until 31 Oct 2017

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 Mo nthly Pr ice s o f Pa lm ke r n & C oc onu t O ils (in U S-$/T )
Very high volatility in
lauric oil prices 2400
2250
The El-Nino caused 2100
production shortfall in 1950
copra yields and 1800
production lasted 1650
longer than expected 1500
1350
1200
1050
900
750
600
450
300 C o c o n u t o il , P h i l/I n d o . c if R o t t .

150 P a l m k e r n e l o i l, M a l/ In d o ., c i f R o t t .

0
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
January 2005 until October 2017

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Coconut oil price
Coconut Oil Premiums/Discounts
premiums of an of a verag e prices in R o tte rd am
average US $ 750 over 80 0
palm oil in 2016 and US-$/T vs Pa lm O il
so far in 2017 70 0
vs Pa lm ke rn el O il
60 0
These high prices are
not going to continue 50 0
40 0
30 0
20 0
10 0
0
-10 0
2 00 3 2 00 5 2 00 7 2 00 9 2 01 1 2 01 3 2 01 5
2 00 2 2 00 4 2 00 6 2 00 8 2 01 0 2 01 2 2 01 4 2 01 6 J a/ O c 1 7

J anu ary /Dec em be r

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In Oct/Sept 2017/18
Monthly Prices of 4 Veg. Oils (US-$/T)
world production of the 2400
2 lauric oils is seen Palm oil crude, cif N.W. Eur
2200
rising by 0.8 Mn T, Palm olein RBD, Mal, fob
2000 Palmkern oil,Mal/Indo,cif Rott
leading to a production 1800 Coconut oil,Phil/Indo,cif Rott
surplus and recovery of
stocks by 0.2-0.3 Mn T. 1600
1400
On Nov 1 prices were:
Coconut oil US $ 1575 1200
Palmkernel oil $ 1440 1000
There is a downward 800
potential of US 100-200 600
in the next 4-8 weeks,
400
and of US $ 250-350 Jan'11 Jan'12 Jan'13 Jan'14 Jan'15 Jan'16 Jan'17
until July 2018
Monthly prices from Jan 2011 until Oct 2017

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Nov 3, 2017
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