Safal Niveshak Stock Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.

www.safalniveshak.com

HOW TO USE THIS SPREADSHEET

Step 1 - This spreadsheet works only on Screener.in. The first step is to create a free account here - https://www.screener.in/re
Step 2 - After creating your account, while you are logged in to Screener.in website, visit this page - https://www.screener.in/ex
Step 3 - Visit the home page of Screener.in and choose a company of your choice. Once you do that, you will see details of you
financial statement table called "Quarterly Results" and click on "View Consolidated". Now, all data you see for this company wi

Step 4 - Scroll back to the top of the page, and you will see a button "Export to Excel" on the right side. Click the button and the
the exact format as "Safal Niveshak's Stock Analysis Excel Ver. 4.0". Now onwards, any excel you export for any company on S
Step 5 - Email me your love and testimonial for helping you with this excel. :-)

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
1. Ensure that the company whose data you are downloading has numbers at least starting from FY08 (March 2008). This is be
from, say, FY10, you will see incorrect data for FY08 and FY09 (which will be of Hero Motocorp on whose financials I have crea

2. All financial data of your chosen company will be automatically updated in the sheet you download, except "Cash and Bank"
figures, which you must update manually from the company's annual reports. Don’t forget to make these changes as these num
3. You may update the sheet and add your own analysis, formulae etc. and then upload again to Screener.in site using the Step
"Data Sheet" because this will cause errors in your future downloads.
4. DON’T touch any cell except the black ones, where you are required to update the numbers manually from Annual Reports (j
the growth assumptions etc.
4. I have added Comments and Instructions wherever necessary so as to explain the concepts. Read those carefully before wo
5. This sheet is not a replacement of the work required to read annual reports as part of the analysis process. So please do tha
some discrepancy in numbers (though rare), but you will know this only when you read annual reports.
6. I could not find a bug/errors in this spreadsheet, but if you notice some, please email me at - vishal@safalniveshak.com - and
7. I will keep on updating the sheet from time to time and will update the same on the website. I invite you to share your feedba
together.
8. This excel won't work for banking and financial services companies.

Note: All data is sourced from Screener.in

 Safal Niveshak Stock Warning! Excel can be a wonder
a deadly weapon if you wish to
Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.0) careful of what you are getting
garbage out. And if you need the
a given stock, you mu
www.safalniveshak.com
Basic Company Details
Parameters Details
Company BHARTI AIRTEL LTD
Current Stock Price (Rs) 341 Remember! Focus on decisions
Face Value (Rs) 5.0 evidence
No. of Shares (Crore) 399.7
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore) 136,231

Key Financials - Trend

Parameters Details
Sales Growth (9-Year CAGR) 9.4% Please! It's your money. Please
cause you to lose it all! I've desi
Profit Before Tax Growth (9-Year CAGR) -10.0% but you alone are responsible f
Net Profit Growth (8-Year CAGR) -19.6% ever after! I am not a sadist w
Average Debt/Equity (5-Years, x) 1.6 analyzing companies on your
instead of a map, for you can c
Average Return on Equity (5-Years) 7.5%
A
Average P/E (5-Years, x) 40.0
Latest P/E (x) 89.0
 Excel can be a wonderful tool to analyze the past. But it can be
y weapon if you wish to use it to predict the future! So be very
of what you are getting into. Here, garbage in will always equal
out. And if you need the excel to tell you what you must do with
a given stock, you must not use this tool anyways.

er! Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming

evidence. Calculate. Pray!

It's your money. Please don't blame me if results of this excel

u to lose it all! I've designed this excel to aid your own thinking,
alone are responsible for your actions. I want to live peacefully
fter! I am not a sadist who wants you to do the hard work by
ng companies on your own. But I'd rather give you a compass
of a map, for you can confuse map with territory and lose it all.
All the best!
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Parameter

Consumer monopoly or commodity?

Understand how business works

Is the company conservatively financed?

Are earnings strong and do they show an

upward trend?

Does the company stick with what it

knows?

Has the company been buying back its

shares?

Have retained earnings been invested

well?

Is the company’s return on equity above

average?

Is the company free to adjust prices to

inflation?
Does the company need to constantly
reinvest in capital?

Conclusion

Never Forget
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation

Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
makes the product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their
unique niche. However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with
traditionally high margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms.
Also look for strong growth in earnings and high return on equity in the past.

Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to
construct a quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing
those companies that operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can
increase the size of the circle, but only over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the
circle is to know its boundaries.

Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies
tend to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios.
Also seek companies that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.

Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding
earnings (profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe
balance sheets). To help indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years
earnings growth rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the
consistency in such growth. So exclude companies with volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average"
growth has been high.

Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within
its circle of competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company,
look at the company’s past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of
operations for the firm. Be cautious of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.

Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While
we do not screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in
place.

Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been
employed profitably. A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent
earnings and strong return on equity in the past.

Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity
without employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately
16%. Thus, seek companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.

That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above
(like high ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing
significant volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad
for an investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained
earnings must first go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to
maintain current operations, the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against
competitors will help a lot. Seek companies that consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.

Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait
for the folly of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble
understanding this philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and
follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks successfully.

Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.

 Balance Sheet
BHARTI AIRTEL LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Equity Share Capital 1,898 1,899 1,899 1,899 1,899 1,999 1,999 1,999 1,999 1,999
Reserves 27,227 37,978 46,866 48,713 48,423 57,757 37,776 64,823 65,494 67,600
Borrowings 13,517 10,288 58,749 69,023 66,736 75,896 83,415 100,647 107,288 111,334
Other Liabilities 21,092 20,937 39,097 37,698 42,167 47,525 61,109 62,372 65,427 78,542
Total 63,734 71,102 146,611 157,333 159,225 183,177 184,299 229,840 240,207 259,474

Net Block 43,949 50,849 124,051 129,168 125,674 140,615 124,279 172,293 178,235 187,200
Capital Work in Progress 4,144 2,436 4,823 4,414 2,992 - 17,415 5,702 10,839 9,751
Investments 2,349 5,162 622 1,836 7,710 15,531 10,752 11,977 14,339 16,159
Other Assets 13,293 12,655 17,115 21,915 22,849 27,032 31,854 39,868 36,795 46,364
Total 63,734 71,102 146,611 157,333 159,225 183,177 184,299 229,840 240,207 259,474

Working Capital -7,799 -8,282 -21,983 -15,783 -19,318 -20,494 -29,255 -22,504 -28,632 -32,178
Debtors 2,900 3,182 5,493 6,374 6,782 6,244 5,207 5,504 4,740 5,883
Inventory 96 48 214 131 111 142 134 169 49 69
Cash & Bank** 4,735 3,367 3,190 3,393 2,605 3,546 4,739 5,829
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use Cash+Bank+Current Investments from Consolidated Balance Sheet in Annual Reports

Debtor Days 28 28 34 33 32 27 20 21 18 26
Inventory Turnover 388 864 279 547 694 604 718 571 1,956 1,208
Fixed Asset Turnover 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4
Debt/Equity 0.5 0.3 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 2.1 1.5 1.6 1.6
Return on Equity 27% 23% 12% 8% 5% 5% 13% 10% 6% 3%
Return on Capital Employed 25% 23% 9% 9% 8% 10% 12% 13% 10% 7%
 Profit & Loss Account / Income Statement
BHARTI AIRTEL LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Trailing
Sales 37,352 41,829 59,602 71,506 76,947 85,864 96,101 96,532 95,468 83,688 80,656
% Growth YOY 12% 42% 20% 8% 12% 12% 0% -1% -12%
Expenses 22,506 25,432 39,438 47,801 53,689 58,928 63,352 64,327 61,318 54,062 54,751
Material Cost (% of Sales) 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% Check for wide fluctuations in key
Power and Fuel 7% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 9% 7% 8% 8% expense items. For manufacturing
Other Mfr. Exp 31% 27% 43% 44% 46% 45% 32% 36% 36% 36% firms, check their material costs etc. For
Employee Cost 5% 4% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% services firms, look at employee costs.
Selling and Admin Cost 15% 17% 16% 16% 17% 16% 17% 11% 9% 8%
Operating Profit 14,846 16,398 20,164 23,705 23,258 26,936 32,749 32,205 34,150 29,626 25,905
Operating Profit Margin 40% 39% 34% 33% 30% 31% 34% 33% 36% 35% 32%
Other Income 597 1,271 255 264 861 2,457 2,096 6,637 2,893 2,209 1,406
Other Income as % of Sales 1.6% 3.0% 0.4% 0.4% 1.1% 2.9% 2.2% 6.9% 3.0% 2.6% 1.7%
Depreciation 4,673 6,199 10,207 13,368 14,815 15,650 19,858 17,450 19,773 19,243 20,753
Interest 2,306 645 2,535 4,083 4,519 5,879 4,447 8,546 9,547 9,326 8,886
Interest Coverage(Times) 5 18 4 3 2 2 3 3 2 1 1
Profit before tax (PBT) 8,464 10,824 7,678 6,518 4,785 7,864 10,540 12,846 7,723 3,267 -2,328
% Growth YOY 28% -29% -15% -27% 64% 34% 22% -40% -58%
PBT Margin 23% 26% 13% 9% 6% 9% 11% 13% 8% 4% -3%
Tax 547 1,534 1,779 2,260 2,518 4,845 5,487 5,953 3,482 1,084 -3,859
Net profit 7,918 9,290 5,899 4,258 2,267 3,019 5,053 6,893 4,241 2,184 1,530
% Growth YOY 17% -36% -28% -47% 33% 67% 36% -38% -49%
Net Profit Margin 21% 22% 10% 6% 3% 4% 5% 7% 4% 3% 2%
EPS 20.9 24.5 15.5 11.2 6.0 7.6 12.6 17.2 10.6 5.5 3.8
% Growth YOY 17% -36% -28% -47% 27% 67% 36% -38% -49%
Price to earning 16.5 12.5 23.8 28.6 48.7 43.2 31.9 20.4 32.7 72.1 89.0
Price 343 305 369 321 290 326 403 351 346 394 341
Dividend Payout 4.8% 4.1% 6.6% 8.9% 16.8% 26.0% 33.3% 8.9% 10.5% 194.2%
Market Cap 130,329 115,968 140,175 121,750 ### ### ### ### ### ###
Retained Earnings 7,535 8,905 5,510 3,878 1,886 2,236 3,370 6,276 3,795 -2,058
Buffett's $1 Test 0.7

TRENDS: 10 YEARS 7 YEARS 5 YEARS 3 YEARS

Sales Growth 9.4% 5.0% 1.7% -4.5%
PBT Growth -10.0% -11.5% -7.3% -32.3%
PBT Margin 12.2% 8.7% 9.1% 8.4%
Price to Earning 33.0 39.6 40.0 41.7

Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over
past 3 or 5 years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7
to 10 years) growth numbers.
 Cash Flow Statement
BHARTI AIRTEL LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17Mar-18 Total
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) ### 16,203 18,851 22,593 22,608 26,233 28,059 27,942 28,280 29,854 234,334
% Growth YoY 18% 16% 20% 0% 16% 7% 0% 1% 6%
Cash from Investing Activity ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
Cash from Financing Activity 2,065 -1,187 39,715 -4,011 -4,566 2,774 -9,672 ### -351 1,921 14,742
Net Cash Flow 601 1,256 -1,895 203 -634 3,826 -3,915 1,905 -2,752 3,835 2,431
CFO/Sales 37% 39% 32% 32% 29% 31% 29% 29% 30% 36%
CFO/Net Profit 173% 174% 320% 531% 997% 869% 555% 405% 667% 1367%
Capex** 315 212 364 565 607 937 1,156 1,638 1,238 824
FCF ### 15,991 18,487 22,028 22,001 25,296 26,903 26,304 27,042 29,030 226,478
Average FCF (3 Years) 27,459
FCF Growth YoY 19% 16% 19% 0% 15% 6% -2% 3% 7%
FCF/Sales 36% 38% 31% 31% 29% 29% 28% 27% 28% 35%
FCF/Net Profit 170% 175% 321% 517% 974% 912% 582% 433% 712% 2641%

** Manually enter this number;

Convert to Rs Crore if not already
done in the Annual Reports; Use
"Capital expenditure" number
shown under "Cash Flow from
Investing Activities" segment of
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
available in the Annual Reports
 Key Ratios
BHARTI AIRTEL LTD
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Sales Growth 12.0% 42.5% 20.0% 7.6% 11.6% 11.9% 0.4% -1.1%
PBT Growth 27.9% -29.1% -15.1% -26.6% 64.3% 34.0% 21.9% -39.9%
Net Profit Growth 17.3% -36.5% -27.8% -46.8% 33.2% 67.4% 36.4% -38.5%
Dividend Growth 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 89.5% 113.9% -64.7% -26.5%
Operating Cash Flow Growth 18.2% 16.3% 19.8% 0.1% 16.0% 7.0% -0.4% 1.2%
Free Cash Flow Growth 19.4% 15.6% 19.2% -0.1% 15.0% 6.4% -2.2% 2.8%

Operating Margin 39.7% 39.2% 33.8% 33.2% 30.2% 31.4% 34.1% 33.4% 35.8%
PBT Margin 22.7% 25.9% 12.9% 9.1% 6.2% 9.2% 11.0% 13.3% 8.1%
Net Margin 21.2% 22.2% 9.9% 6.0% 2.9% 3.5% 5.3% 7.1% 4.4%

Debtor Days 28.3 27.8 33.6 32.5 32.2 26.5 19.8 20.8 18.1
Inventory Turnover 388.0 864.4 278.6 546.7 693.8 603.8 717.7 570.5 ###
Fixed Asset Turnover 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.5
Debt/Equity 0.5 0.3 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 2.1 1.5 1.6
Debt/Assets 21.2% 14.5% 40.1% 43.9% 41.9% 41.4% 45.3% 43.8% 44.7%
Interest Coverage (Times) 4.7 17.8 4.0 2.6 2.1 2.3 3.4 2.5 1.8
Return on Equity 27.2% 23.3% 12.1% 8.4% 4.5% 5.1% 12.7% 10.3% 6.3%
Return on Capital Employed 25.3% 22.9% 9.5% 8.9% 7.9% 10.1% 12.2% 12.8% 9.9%
Free Cash Flow (Rs Cr) ### 15,991 ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
Mar/18
-12.3%
-57.7%
-48.5%
434.0%
5.6%
7.4%

35.4%
3.9%
2.6%

25.7
###
0.4
1.6
42.9%
1.4
3.1%
7.0%
###
What to look for?
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher isn't always better, esp. when the company is generating high ROE, which means the management is allocating capital
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency

Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry

Lower/reducing is better. Compare with industry peer(s)

Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Nil / lower than 0.5 / reducing is better
Lower is better
Look for number > 5
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for positive and rising numbers. If the company consistently generates negative FCF over say 10 years, avoid it.
50% Profit Margin Capital Alloc
30%
Check for a rising trend and
40% 25% Numbers > 20% long term a
has zero/marginal debt. Com
20%
30%
15%
20%
10%
10% Check for a rising trend and/or consistency. 5%
Compare with a close competitor
0% 0%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan

Operating Margin PBT Margin

Net Margin ROE

120,000
Revenue Revenue and Pro
80%
Check for a rising trend. Check for a ris
100,000 60% Compare grow
40%
80,000
20%
60,000 0%
40,000 -20% Jan/10 Jan/12
-40%
20,000
-60%
- -80%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Revenue Growth
Net Profit Grow

14,000 Profit Over Time Operating and

35,000 Check
Check for a rising trend. for positive numbe
12,000 30,000 which are rising over tim
10,000 25,000
8,000 20,000
6,000 15,000
4,000 10,000
2,000 5,000
- -
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/09 Jan/11 Ja

PBT Net Profit Operating Cash Flo

Data for Charts (Please don't touch any number below)
Margins
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Operating Margin 40% 39% 34% 33% 30% 31% 34% 33% 36%
PBT Margin 23% 26% 13% 9% 6% 9% 11% 13% 8%
Net Margin 21% 22% 10% 6% 3% 4% 5% 7% 4%

Management Effectiveness
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
ROE 27% 23% 12% 8% 5% 5% 13% 10% 6%
ROCE 25% 23% 9% 9% 8% 10% 12% 13% 10%

Revenue & Profit Growth

Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
Revenue Growth 12% 42% 20% 8% 12% 12% 0% -1% -12%
PBT Growth 28% -29% -15% -27% 64% 34% 22% -40% -58%
Net Profit Growth 17% -36% -28% -47% 33% 67% 36% -38% -49%

Revenue & Profit

Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Revenue 37,352 41,829 59,602 71,506 76,947 85,864 96,101 96,532 95,468
PBT 8,464 10,824 7,678 6,518 4,785 7,864 10,540 12,846 7,723
Net Profit 7,918 9,290 5,899 4,258 2,267 3,019 5,053 6,893 4,241

Cash Flows
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Operating Cash Flow 13,712 16,203 18,851 22,593 22,608 26,233 28,059 27,942 28,280
Free Cash Flow 13,396 15,991 18,487 22,028 22,001 25,296 26,903 26,304 27,042
%
Capital Allocation Quality
Check for a rising trend and/or consistency.
% Numbers > 20% long term are good. Also check if the company
has zero/marginal debt. Compare with a close competitor Note: Please ignore the dates
% on the X-axis. The figures are
% for/as on the year ending date,
which for most Indian
% companies would be 31st
March of that year
%
%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17

ROE ROCE

% Revenue and Profit Growth (YoY)

Check for a rising trend and/or low volatility.
% Compare growth rates with a close competitor.
%
%
%
% Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18
%
%
%
Revenue Growth PBT Growth
Net Profit Growth

Operating and Free Cash Flow

0 Check for positive numbers and
0 which are rising over time.
0
0
0
0
0
-
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17

Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow

Mar/18
35%
4%
3%

Mar/18
3%
7%

Mar/18
83,688
3,267
2,184

Mar/18
29,854
29,030
 Common Size P&L
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Change in Inventory 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Power and Fuel 7% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 9% 7% 8% 8%
Other Mfr. Exp 31% 27% 43% 44% 46% 45% 32% 36% 36% 36%
Employee Cost 5% 4% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
Selling and Admin Cost 15% 17% 16% 16% 17% 16% 17% 11% 9% 8%
Other Expenses 2% 3% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 8% 7% 7%
Operating Profit 40% 39% 34% 33% 30% 31% 33% 33% 36% 35%
Other Income 2% 3% 0% 0% 1% 3% 2% 7% 3% 3%
Depreciation 13% 15% 17% 19% 19% 18% 21% 18% 21% 23%
Interest 6% 2% 4% 6% 6% 7% 5% 9% 10% 11%
Profit Before Tax 23% 26% 13% 9% 6% 9% 11% 13% 8% 4%
Tax 1% 4% 3% 3% 3% 6% 6% 6% 4% 1%
Net Profit 21% 22% 10% 6% 3% 3% 5% 6% 4% 1%
Dividend Amount 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 2% 1% 0% 3%

Common Size Balance Sheet

Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital 3% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Reserves 43% 53% 32% 31% 30% 32% 20% 28% 27% 26%
Borrowings 21% 14% 40% 44% 42% 41% 45% 44% 45% 43%
Other Liabilities 33% 29% 27% 24% 26% 26% 33% 27% 27% 30%
Total Liabilities 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Block 69% 72% 85% 82% 79% 77% 67% 75% 74% 72%
Capital Work in Progress 7% 3% 3% 3% 2% 0% 9% 2% 5% 4%
Investments 4% 7% 0% 1% 5% 8% 6% 5% 6% 6%
Other Assets 21% 18% 12% 14% 14% 15% 17% 17% 15% 18%
Total Assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Receivables 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2%
Inventory 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Cash & Bank 4% 4% 1% 1% 1% 3% 1% 2% 2% 3%
 A common-size financial statement is displays line
items as a percentage of one selected or common
figure. Creating common-size financial statements
makes it easier to analyze a company over time and
compare it with its peers. Using common-size
financial statements helps investors spot trends that
a raw financial statement may not uncover.
 Dhandho Intrinsic Value Calculation
Read the book - The Dhandho Investor by Mohnish Pabrai

BHARTI AIRTEL LTD BHARTI AIRTEL LTD

Dhandho IV - Lower Range Dhandho IV - Higher Range
Year FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth Year
0 Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 15% 0 Excess Cash (Latest)
1 FY18 31,577 28,194 Year 4-6 10% 1 FY18
2 FY19 36,314 28,949 Year 7-10 5% 2 FY19
3 FY20 41,761 29,725 Discount Rate 12% 3 FY20
4 FY21 45,937 29,194 4 FY21
5 FY22 50,531 28,673 Last 5-Years' CAGR 5 FY22
6 FY23 55,584 28,161 Sales 2% 6 FY23
7 FY24 58,363 26,401 PBT -7% 7 FY24
8 FY25 61,281 24,751 FCF 6% 8 FY25
9 FY26 64,345 23,204 9 FY26
10 FY27 67,563 21,753 10 FY27
10 675,628 217,534 10
Intrinsic Value 492,366 Intrinsic Value
Current Mkt. Cap. 136,231 Current Mkt. Cap.
Premium/(Discount) to IV -72% Premium/(Discount) to IV

Note: See explanation of this model here

P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as
starting number. This number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the his
this business while arriving at your assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of
Calculation
by Mohnish Pabrai

BHARTI AIRTEL LTD

Dhandho IV - Higher Range
FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth
Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 20%
32,950 29,420 Year 4-6 15%
39,540 31,521 Year 7-10 10%
47,448 33,773 Discount Rate 12%
54,566 34,678
62,751 35,606
72,163 36,560
79,380 35,907
87,317 35,266
96,049 34,636
105,654 34,018
1,584,812 510,267
Intrinsic Value 857,482
Current Mkt. Cap. 136,231
Premium/(Discount) to IV -84%

ust use a normalized positive FCF as the

al year, without capex. Check the history of
sting the model to fit your version of reality.
 Ben Graham Formula (Low Range) Ben Graham Formula (High Range)
Company Name BHARTI AIRTEL LTD Company Name
Year Ended Mar/18 Year Ended

Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 4,278.1 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate (0.4) Long-Term Growth Rate

Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) 33,168 Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 136,231 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)

EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10

Ben Graham's Revised Formula: Value = [EPS x (8.5 + 2G) x 4.4] / Y

Here, 4.4 is what Graham determined to be his minimum required rate of return. At the time of around 1962 when Graham was

Note: I have used Graham's original formula in the above calculations

m Formula (High Range)
BHARTI AIRTEL LTD
Mar/18

4,278.1
8.5
(0.7)

29,973
136,231

g is the growth rate for the next 7-10 years

e of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this nu
e present, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
 Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
BHARTI AIRTEL LTD

Initial Cash Flow (Rs Cr) 27,459 ###

###
Years 1-5 6-10 459%
FCF Growth Rate 15% 12%
Discount Rate 12%
Terminal Growth Rate 2%

Net Debt Level (Rs Cr) ###

Year FCF Growth Present Value

1 31,577 15% 28,194
2 36,314 15% 28,949
3 41,761 15% 29,725
4 48,025 15% 30,521
5 55,229 15% 31,338
6 61,857 12% 31,338
7 69,279 12% 31,338
8 77,593 12% 31,338
9 86,904 12% 31,338
10 97,333 12% 31,338

Final Calculations
Terminal Year 99,279
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows ###
Terminal Value ###
Total PV of Cash Flows ###
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) ###

Note: See explanation of DCF here

Valuation
D

DCF Value (As calculated in cell B29)

Current Market Cap
DCF as % of Current Mkt Cap
 Expected Returns Model
BHARTI AIRTEL LTD
Particulars Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15
Net Profit (Rs Crore) 7,859 9,163 5,752 4,257 2,258 2,773 4,621
Net Profit Margin 21% 22% 10% 6% 3% 3% 5%
Return on Equity 27% 23% 12% 8% 5% 5% 13%

Calculations (Enter values only in black cells)

Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 12%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 3,413
Current P/E (x) 124.0
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20.0
Esti. Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 68,267
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 21,980
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 136,231

Note: See explanation of this model here

el
Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 CAGR (9-Yr) CAGR (5-Yr)
6,077 3,800 1,099 -20% -13%
6% 4% 1%
10% 6% 3%
 Intrinsic Value Range
BHARTI AIRTEL LTD
Lower Higher Remember! Give importance to a stock's valuations / fair v
Dhandho ### ### only "after" you have answered in "Yes" to these two quest
Ben Graham 33,168 29,973 (1) Is this business simple to be understood? and (2) Ca
DCF ### understand this business?
Expected Return 21,980
Don't try to quantify everything. In stock research, the less
Current Market Cap. 136,231 mathematical you are, the more simple, sensible, and usefu
be your analysis and results. Great analysis is generally "b
of-the-envelope".
Explanation: Considering the above
range, we can say that Hero Moto's IV Also, your calculated "fair value" will be proven wrong in
range is between Rs 55,000 crore to Rs future, so don't invest your savings just because you fall in
95,000 crore. It's a big range, but that's with it. Don't look for perfection. It is overrated. Focus o
fine (who is looking for precision?). Now, decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming eviden
if the current market cap is within this IV
range, it makes the stock
reasonably/attractively priced. If the
current market cap is higher then the
higher value of the range, it makes it
overpriced. But remember, these are just
numbers!
 importance to a stock's valuations / fair value
ave answered in "Yes" to these two questions -
ness simple to be understood? and (2) Can I
understand this business?

fy everything. In stock research, the less non-

are, the more simple, sensible, and useful will
and results. Great analysis is generally "back-
of-the-envelope".

lated "fair value" will be proven wrong in the

vest your savings just because you fall in love
ook for perfection. It is overrated. Focus on
outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.
BHARTI AIRTEL LTD
SCREENER.IN
Narration Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18
Sales ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
% Growth YOY -12% -13% -10% -9% -6% 1%
Expenses ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
Operating Profit 9,307 8,482 7,813 7,758 7,891 7,469 6,911 6,722 6,136 6,136
Other Income 283 145 -309 320 243 56 -66 -97 88 1,481
Depreciation 4,956 4,835 4,942 4,819 4,687 4,838 4,899 5,145 5,237 5,472
Interest 1,906 1,936 1,916 1,827 2,327 2,088 1,829 2,127 2,986 1,945
Profit before tax 2,729 1,856 646 1,431 1,120 599 117 -647 -1,998 200
PBT Margin 11% 8% 3% 7% 5% 3% 1% -3% -10% 1%
% Growth YOY -59% -68% -82% -145% -278% -67%
Tax 1,114 1,184 175 814 534 38 -302 -1,127 -2,248 -182
Net profit 1,615 504 373 367 343 306 83 97 119 86
% Growth YOY -79% -39% -78% -74% -65% -72%
OPM 38% 36% 36% 35% 36% 37% 35% 33% 30% 30%
COMPANY NAME BHARTI AIRTEL LTD
LATEST VERSION 2.10 PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CHA
CURRENT VERSION 2.10

META
Number of shares 399.74
Face Value 5
Current Price 340.8
Market Capitalization 136231.4

PROFIT & LOSS

Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Sales 37352.08 41829.46 59601.8 71505.8 76947 85863.5
Raw Material Cost 208.42 109.52 816.9 938.9 783.4 472.8
Change in Inventory -17.96 -47.88
Power and Fuel 2787 3677.02
Other Mfr. Exp 11541.9 11489.18 25448.1 31605.8 35304.6 38509.6
Employee Cost 1702.29 1753.43 3278.4 3515.9 3882.3 4622.8
Selling and admin 5419.86 7301.28 9696.1 11305.8 13229.8 13708.9
Other Expenses 828.5 1053.29 198 434.5 489 1613.6
Other Income 597.48 1270.87 255.4 264.3 860.9 2456.9
Depreciation 4672.77 6199.41 10206.6 13368.1 14814.8 15649.6
Interest 2306.38 645.4 2534.9 4082.8 4518.7 5878.8
Profit before tax 8591.01 10895.43 7678.2 6518.3 4785.3 7864.3
Tax 546.83 1533.91 1779 2260.2 2518.4 4844.9
Net profit 7858.96 9163.13 5751.7 4256.8 2258.1 2772.7
Dividend Amount 379.65 379.75 379.76 379.76 379.76 719.53

Quarters
Report Date Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17
Sales 24651.5 23335.7 21934.6 21958.1 21776.9 20318.6
Expenses 15344.2 14854.2 14122 14199.7 13885.7 12850
Other Income 283.1 144.7 -308.7 319.5 242.9 55.7
Depreciation 4956 4835 4941.8 4819.2 4687.3 4837.5
Interest 1905.7 1935.6 1916.2 1827.4 2326.6 2088.2
Profit before tax 2728.7 1855.6 645.9 1431.3 1120.2 598.6
Tax 1113.6 1184.1 175.3 813.6 534.1 37.9
Net profit 1615.1 503.7 373.4 367.3 343 305.8
Operating Profit 9307.3 8481.5 7812.6 7758.4 7891.2 7468.6

BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Equity Share Capital 1898.24 1898.77 1898.8 1898.8 1898.8 1998.7
Reserves 27227.26 37978.02 46865.9 48712.5 48422.9 57757.3
Borrowings 13517.15 10288.14 58749.2 69023.2 66736.3 75895.8
Other Liabilities 21091.77 20937.29 39097.3 37698 42167.3 47525.4
Total 63734.42 71102.22 146611.2 157332.5 159225.3 183177.2
Net Block 43948.64 50849.06 124050.9 129168.2 125674.4 140614.5
Capital Work in Progress 4143.65 2435.94 4823.4 4413.9 2991.9
Investments 2348.95 5162.07 622.4 1835.5 7709.8 15530.8
Other Assets 13293.18 12655.15 17114.5 21914.9 22849.2 27031.9
Total 63734.42 71102.22 146611.2 157332.5 159225.3 183177.2
Receivables 2899.78 3182.48 5492.9 6373.5 6782.4 6244.1
Inventory 96.27 48.39 213.9 130.8 110.9 142.2
Cash & Bank 2765.97 2578.63 957.5 2030 1607.8 4980.8
No. of Equity Shares 1898239796 3.798E+09 3.798E+09 3.798E+09 3.798E+09 3.997E+09
New Bonus Shares 49999000
Face value 10 5 5 5 5 5

CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Cash from Operating Activity 13711.56 16202.9 18851.3 22593.1 22607.5 26232.6
Cash from Investing Activity -15175.37 -13760.3 -60461.9 -18379.5 -18676.1 -25180.6
Cash from Financing Activity 2064.85 -1186.6 39715.3 -4010.7 -4565.5 2774.4
Net Cash Flow 601.04 1256 -1895.3 202.9 -634.1 3826.4

PRICE: 343.288889 305.37619 369.12105 320.6025 290.4925 326.42895

DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 379.65 379.75 379.75 379.75 379.75 399.74
DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

96100.7 96532.1 95468.3 83687.9
774.4
494.8
8439.8 6904.9 7294.6 6908.2
30935.6 34292.2 34082.7 30443.6
4857 4910.8 4303.2 3977.1
16459.6 10258.8 8626.8 7072.2
2380.3 7960 7011 5660.4
2095.8 6636.8 2892.9 2209.2
19858.3 17449.8 19773 19243.1
4446.5 8546.1 9546.6 9325.5
10539.8 12846.3 7723.3 3267
5486.7 5953.3 3481.9 1083.5
4620.8 6076.7 3799.8 1099
1539 543.65 399.74 2134.61

Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18

19634.3 20080 20422.5 20519.2
12723.2 13358.2 14286.4 14383.1
-65.8 -97.1 87.8 1481.2
4899.1 5145.2 5236.6 5472.3
1829.3 2126.6 2985.7 1944.8
116.9 -647.1 -1998.4 200.2
-302.1 -1126.7 -2247.6 -182.4
82.9 97.3 118.8 86.2
6911.1 6721.8 6136.1 6136.1

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

 1998.7 1998.7 1998.7 1998.7
37776.2 64823 65494.3 67599.9
83415.1 100646.5 107287.6 111333.5
61109.4 62371.8 65426.8 78542.2
184299.4 229840 240207.4 259474.3
124278.6 172292.8 178235.1 187200.4
17414.8 5702 10838.5 9751.2
10752 11977 14338.7 16158.6
31854 39868.2 36795.1 46364.1
184299.4 229840 240207.4 259474.3
5207.2 5503.9 4740.2 5883
133.9 169.2 48.8 69.3
2083.1 5098.7 5098.3 6670.6
3.997E+09 3997400102 3997400102 3997400102

5 5 5 5

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

28059 27942.3 28279.9 29853.8
-22301.1 -14091.4 -30680 -27939.5
-9672.4 -11946.1 -351.4 1920.5
-3914.5 1904.8 -2751.5 3834.8

403.125 350.952632 346.465789 394.028571

399.74 399.74 399.74 399.74

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