FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Prince Edward Island

Election 2019
Voter Intention Numbers
Best Choice for Premier
Referendum on Electoral Reform
19th April 2019
METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on results of
a survey conducted between April 14th to April
17th among a sample of 636 adults, 18 years
of age or older, living in Prince Edward Island.
The survey was conducted using automated
telephone interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents
were interviewed on both landlines and cellular
phones.
The sampling frame was derived from both
a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commercially
available sources and random digit dialing. The
part of the survey that dialed from the directory
was conducted as a stratified dial of the following
regions; Charlottetown and the rest of PEI. In the
case of random digit dials, respondents were
asked the additional question of what region of
the province they resided in.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research
and was not sponsored by a third party.
The margin of error for the first survey is +/- 3.89%
and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
With 20 years of political experience in all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito
Maggi is a respected commentator on international
public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority
NDP government in Alberta, and was the only
polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election. Mainstreet
also accurately predicted the Miami & New York
City Mayoral elections in November 2017, and
the Alabama special election in 2017. Mainstreet
Research is a member of the World Association for
Public Opinion Research and meets international
and Canadian publication standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
PEI GREENS HOLD LEAD, GOVERNING LIBERALS IN THIRD

18 April 2019 (Ottawa, ON) – The PEI Green Party continue to lead as the Prince Edward Island
election heads into the final turn.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest poll in Prince Edward Island. The poll
surveyed 636 Prince Edward Islanders between April 14th and April 17th. The poll has a margin of
error of +/- 3.89% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“The chances that the PEI Greens will make history are increasing as the election has gone on,” said
Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “While it is difficult from these numbers
to determine whether the Greens will get a plurality of seats on the 24th, it looks like that the PEI
election will have a dramatic finish.”

Among decided and leaning voters, the Greens led by Peter Bevan-Baker have 35.4% (-0.5% since
February), while the Progressive Conservatives with new leader Dennis King have 30.5% (+3%). The
governing Liberals led by Wade MacLauchlan have 29.2% (-2.4%). The NDP with Joe Byrne at the
helm have 3.9% (-0.2%).

“The Greens have remained stable, while the PCs have gained at the expense of the Liberals,”
continued Maggi.

The good news continues for the Greens, as 36.9% of Islanders think that Bevan-Baker would make
the best Premier, followed by MacLauchlan (25%), and Dennis King (23.8%).

The poll also asked how Islanders would vote in the referendum on electoral reform. 51.2% said
they would vote to implement the mixed-member proportional representation voting system, while
48.8% said they would vote to the keep the current first-past-the-post system.

“The referendum is a flat tie, simply put,” said Maggi. “MMP is being powered by strong support
among the 18-34 age group.”

“If they show up and vote in numbers, then the proposal should pass easily,” concluded Maggi. “If
they do not, then PEI will retain the existing system.”

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
 All Voters
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?

12.2%

0.9% 26.2%
3.6%

All Voters

30.5%

All Voters
Decided and Leaning 26.7%

11.6%
1.1%
0.7% 3.9%
3.6% 27.6%
Liberals Progressive Conservatives Greens NDP

Another Party Undecided 29.2%

35.4% All Voters

Decided and Leaning
32.3%

24.3%

30.5%

Liberals Progressive Conservatives Greens NDP

Liberals Progressive Conservatives

Another Party UndecidedGreens NDP

Another Party
 Best Premier
Among all the party leaders, who do you think would make the
Best Premierbest Premier?
8.7%
1.2%
4.4% 8.7% 25%
1.2%
4.4% 25%

Best Premier

Best Premier
36.9%

36.9% 23.8%

23.8%

Wade MacLauchlan Dennis King Peter Bevan-Baker

Joe
Wade Byrne
MacLauchlan Another PartyKing
Dennis Leader Undecided
Peter Bevan-Baker

Joe Byrne Another Party Leader Undecided

Should Prince Edward Island change its voting

system to a mixed member proportional voting system?

48.8%
51.2%
48.8%
51.2%

Yes No

Yes No
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Charlottetown Rest of PEI
Liberals led by Wade MacLauchlan 26.2% 29.6% 22.9% 21.4% 29.4% 26.1% 28.1% 26.1% 26.2%
Progressive Conservatives led by Dennis King 26.7% 31.8% 21.7% 24.9% 28.6% 26.9% 26.2% 26.9% 26.6%
Greens led by Peter Bevan-Baker 30.5% 26.1% 34.8% 32.2% 28.8% 27.9% 33.9% 35.5% 28.8%
NDP led by Joe Byrne 3.6% 2.2% 4.9% 6% 3.6% 2.5% 2.3% 3.1% 3.7%
Another Party 0.9% 1.6% 0.2% 1% - 1% 1.5% 1.5% 0.7%
Undecided 12.2% 8.8% 15.5% 14.5% 9.7% 15.5% 8% 6.9% 14%
Unweighted Frequency 636 349 287 111 150 194 181 239 397
Weighted Frequency 636 311 325 155 150 188 143 161 475

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Charlottetown Rest of PEI
Liberals led by Wade MacLauchlan 27.6% 30.4% 24.8% 21.4% 30.7% 28.7% 29.4% 26.5% 27.9%
Progressive Conservatives led by Dennis King 28.8% 33.9% 23.9% 27.1% 30.2% 30.9% 26.2% 27.3% 29.3%
Greens led by Peter Bevan-Baker 33.1% 29% 37.1% 35.1% 31.2% 30.7% 36.1% 36.9% 31.8%
NDP led by Joe Byrne 3.6% 2.2% 4.9% 6% 3.6% 2.5% 2.3% 3.1% 3.7%
Another Party 1.1% 1.9% 0.2% 1% 0.8% 1% 1.5% 1.5% 0.9%
Undecided 5.9% 2.6% 9.1% 9.4% 3.6% 6.1% 4.5% 4.8% 6.3%
Unweighted Frequency 636 349 287 111 150 194 181 239 397
Weighted Frequency 636 311 325 155 150 188 143 161 475

(decided and leaning voters)

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Charlottetown Rest of PEI
Liberals led by Wade MacLauchlan 29.2% 31.2% 27.3% 23.4% 31.8% 30.6% 30.8% 27.5% 29.7%
Progressive Conservatives led by Dennis King 30.5% 34.9% 26.3% 29.7% 31.2% 32.8% 27.4% 28.5% 31.1%
Greens led by Peter Bevan-Baker 35.4% 29.8% 40.8% 39% 32.5% 32.8% 37.9% 39.3% 34.1%
NDP led by Joe Byrne 3.9% 2.2% 5.4% 6.7% 3.8% 2.7% 2.4% 3.2% 4.1%
Another Party 1.1% 2% 0.2% 1.1% 0.8% 1% 1.5% 1.5% 1%
Unweighted Frequency 603 341 262 102 144 184 173 228 375
Weighted Frequency 603 295 308 147 142 178 135 152 451
 Among all the party leaders, who do you think would make the best
Premier?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Charlottetown Rest of PEI
Wade MacLauchlan 25% 28.8% 21.4% 20.2% 24.7% 26.9% 28.2% 25.1% 25%
Dennis King 23.8% 28.2% 19.6% 20.4% 30.2% 23.1% 21.9% 23.1% 24.1%
Peter Bevan-Baker 36.9% 31.9% 41.6% 42.3% 32.6% 35.2% 37.5% 38.3% 36.4%
Joe Byrne 4.4% 2.9% 5.8% 4.2% 4.5% 4.1% 4.7% 4.4% 4.4%
Another Party Leader 1.2% 1.1% 1.3% 1% 0.9% 0.9% 2.1% 1.1% 1.2%
Undecided 8.7% 7.1% 10.3% 11.8% 7.2% 9.8% 5.6% 8.1% 8.9%
Unweighted Frequency 636 349 287 111 150 194 181 239 397
Weighted Frequency 636 311 325 155 150 188 143 161 475

As you might know, this provincial election will also include a referendum
on electoral reform. Should Prince Edward Island change its voting
system to a mixed member proportional voting system?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Charlottetown Rest of PEI
Yes 51.2% 44.5% 57.5% 60% 50.4% 48.2% 46.2% 55.4% 49.7%
No 48.8% 55.5% 42.5% 40% 49.6% 51.8% 53.8% 44.6% 50.3%
Unweighted Frequency 636 349 287 111 150 194 181 239 397
Weighted Frequency 636 311 325 155 150 188 143 161 475
 QUESTIONNAIRE
If a provincial election were held Among all the party leaders, who
today, which party would you vote do you think would make the best
for? Premier?
(order of first four responses (order of first four responses
randomized) randomized)
Prince Edward Island Liberal Party Wade MacLauchlan
led by Wade MacLauchlan Dennis King
Progressive Conservative Party of Peter Bevan-Baker
Prince Edward Island led by Dennis Joe Byrne
King Another Party Leader
Green Party of Prince Edward Island Undecided
led by Peter Bevan-Baker
New Democratic Party of Prince As you might know, this provincial
Edward Island led by Joe Byrne election will also include a
Another Party referendum on electoral reform.
Undecided Should Prince Edward Island
change its voting system to a
And which party are you mixed member proportional
leaning towards? (only asked of voting system?
respondents who were undecided Yes
in previous question - order of first No
four responses randomized)
Prince Edward Island Liberal Party What is your gender?
led by Wade MacLauchlan Male
Progressive Conservative Party of Female
Prince Edward Island led by Dennis
King What is your age group?
Green Party of Prince Edward Island 18 to 34 years of age
led by Peter Bevan-Baker 35 to 49 years of age
New Democratic Party of Prince 50 to 64 years of age
Edward Island led by Joe Byrne 65 years of age or older
Another Party
Undecided
 METHODOLOGY STATEMENT
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between April 14th to April 17th
among a sample of 636 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Prince Edward Island. The survey
was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were interviews on both landlines
and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population of Prince Edward
Island.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any third-party
organization.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by Mainstreet
Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing. The survey that
dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of two regions in Prince Edward Island:
Charlottetown and the rest of Prince Edward Island. In the case of random digit dials, respondents
were asked the additional question of what region of the province they resided in. In both cases,
respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone number. The
calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances of making contact with
a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.mainstreetresearch.
ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If a question is asked of a subset of
the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults 18
years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age, gender, and
region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.89% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher
in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 5.25%, Females: +/- 5.78%, 18-
34 age group: +/- 9.3%, 35-49 age group: +/- 8%, 50-64 age group: +/- 7.04%, 65+ age group: +/-
7.28%, Charlottetown: +/- 6.34%, Rest of Prince Edward Island: +/- 4.92%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and practical
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.
Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not
limited to coverage error, and measurement error.