Effects of Climate Change on Insect Population

Mogili Ramaiah and Uma Maheswari. T

Ph. D Scholar, Department of Entomology, ICAR-Indian Agricultural Research Institute

(IARI), New Delhi - 110012

INTRODUCTION
Climate change is the most important, and the most complex, global environmental issue to-date.
Effects of green house gases and climatic changes are already evident from the rising climatic
temperature, recurrent droughts, erratic rains, flooding and submergence etc. Insects may be the
first predictors of climate change. Such changes in climatic conditions could profoundly affect
the population dynamics and the status of insect pests of the crops (Woiwod, 1997). As per the
last assessment report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), If no
climate policy interventions are made there will be an increment in mean temperature from 1.1 to
5.4 o C and atmospheric CO2 concentration rise 540 to 970 ppm @ 2µl/yr towards the year 2100
(IPCC, 2007).
Climatic factors contributing to change in pest scenario
• Increase in temperature
• Elevated CO2 levels
• Changes in precipitation
• Increased ozone on troposphere
Climate change related factors like rise in temperature, changes in precipitation patterns,
milder and shorter winters, rise of sea levels and increased incidence of extreme weather
events can directly influence insects by affecting their rate of development, reproduction,
distribution, migration and adaptation. In addition, indirect effects can occur through the
influence of climate on the insect’s host plants, natural enemies and interspecific interactions
with other insects. The impacts include changes in phenology, distribution and community
composition of ecosystem that finally leads to extinction of species (Walther et al., 2002).
Insect growth & behavior
It has been estimated that with a 2°C temperature increase insects might experience one to
five additional life cycles per year (Yamamura and Kiritani, 1998). Eg: 1-30 C rise in
temperature causes expansion of European corn borer additional generations in all the
regions of its occurrence. At higher temperatures, aphids have been shown to be less
responsive to the aphid alarm pheromone they release when under attack by insect predators
and parasitoids – resulting in the potential for greater predation. (Awmack et al. 1997). At
higher temperature of 36°C, 38°C the net reproductive rate was higher and the generation
time was shorter compared to 30°C in YSB and BPH respectively (Ramya et al., 2012).
Longer growing seasons with warmer climate will enable insect pests such as grasshoppers to
complete a greater number of reproductive cycles during spring, summer and autumn.
Shorter dry spell lead to higher infestation of mites, mealy bug. An increase of 20C will cause
reduction in the generation turnover of the aphid, Rhopalosiphum padi (L.) (Morgan,1996).
For every 10C rise in winter temperatures will reduce the adult mortality of green bug,
Nezara viridula by 15%. An increase of 30C in mean daily temperature would cause the
carrot fly, Delia radicum (L.) to become active a month earlier than at present (Collier et al.,
1991).
1. Climate change effect on migratory insects : Migratory” insects (corn earworm in
northern parts of the northeast) may arrive in the Northeast earlier, or the area in which
they are able to overwinter may be expanded. . Temperature may change gender ratios of
some pest species such as thrips (Lewis 1997) potentially affecting reproduction rates.
Higher summer temperatures cause higher no. of migration in Lepidopteran insects by
increasing flight, higher mating and egg production. But heavy downpour decreases
Lepidopteran popn. (Porter, 1992). Potato leafhoppers arrive on an average of 10 days
earlier than in the early 1950s, and their infestations are more severe in the warmest
years. (Mitchell Baker et al., 2015). Spring migration in aphid, M. persicae advances by
14 days for every 10C rise in temp (Harrington et al., 2001).

2. Insect distribution
Parmesan and Yohe (2003, 2007) Reported that More than 1700 Northern Hemisphere
species have exhibited significant range shifts @ 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or
6.1 m per decade upward). In California, 70% of 23 butterfly species now start their first
flight about 24 days earlier than they used to do 31 years ago Spruce budworm,
Choristoneura fumiferana under climate change they will shift towards the poles. Green
 Stinkbug, Nezara viridula, expanded its range northwards by 85 Km @ 19 Km/decade in
Japan with mean increase of 1.3-1.90C temp. in Jan-Feb. 1-30 C rise in temperature
causes expansion of European corn borer distribution upto 1220 Km Northwards.
Sachem skipper, Atalopedes campestries expanded its range from northern California to
washington from 1950’s to 1990 with a 2-40C rise in temp. Study conducted on 1100
insect species, climate changes due to global warming may cause 15-37% of those
species to extinct by 2050 (Thomas et al., 2004 and Hance et al., 2007).
3. Invasion into new regions
Heliothis armigera- serious pest in Portugal and Spain migrated to Denmark Norway,
Sweedan, Slovenia and Netherlands during summer by extending it’s range by 590N in
Nothern Hemisphere (European Commission, 2006). The African plain tiger butterfly,
Danaus chrysippes, completely established its Population in Southern Spain between 1980
-1990. Southern Green Stink Bug, Nezara viridula and Leptocorisa chinensis Tropical and
sub tropical countries in the world to Northward range shift to the temperate zone.

4. Climate change-Insect phenology

With increased temperatures, it is expected that insects will pass through their
larval stages faster and become adults earlier and an increase in the length of the flight
period.
1. Changes in butterfly phenology have been reported in UK, where 26 of 35 species have
advanced their first appearance.
2. First appearance for 17 species in Spain has advanced by 1-7 weeks in just 15 years .
3. Four Mediterranean insect species viz. butterfly, bee, fly and beetle indicated changes in
their first appearance date over the last 50 years, @ 5.1 days/decade which was correlated
with increases in spring temperature. (Gordo and Sanz, 2005).
5. Climate change and pest outbreaks
Changes in climatic variables have led to increased frequency and intensity of outbreaks
of insect-pests.
 Outbreak of sugarcane woolly aphid Ceratovacuna lanigera Zehntner in sugarcane belt of
Karnataka and Maharashtra states during 2002-03 resulted in 30% yield losses.
  Increased frequency, intensity and outbreaks of fruit fly in cucurbits particularly due to high
temperature and high RH.
 Increased infestation of rice crop by swarming caterpillar, hispa, stem borer and bacterial
blight.
 Mirid bug Ragmus spp. on cotton appeared in epidemic form Dharwar (Karnataka) and
Coimbatore (Tamil Nadu) on cotton.
 Spodoptera litura on soybean outbreak during 2005 vidarbha region of Maharashtra
6. Effects of Climate Change on Plant Volatile Compounds
 At higher temperatures plants would produce higher concentrations of VOCs and for
longer periods of time (Penuelas & Staudt 2010), altering therefore their ecological role
in insect-plant interactions.
 Monoterpene such as methyl jasmonate or methyl salicylate which are highly sensitive to
temperature, emission increases by 2-3 fold increase for each 10ºC increase in
temperature. Therefore, the production and emission of higher concentrations of VOCs
which act as plant signaling against insect attack - might put neighboring plants in a
steady state of alert against natural enemies, with the potential to reduce future herbivory
rates.
 On the other hand negative impact on pollinators - get confused with a more fragrant
atmosphere - reduction in plant reproduction and fitness.

ELEVATED CO2 AND PEST POPULATION

Currently, there is great concern for the effects of elevated carbon dioxide concentrations
since CO2 concentration rose about 30% from pre-industrial concentration, and CO2 level is
continuously increasing because of anthropogenic activities. The expected concentration of CO2
in the year of 2100 ranges from 540 to 970 ppm compared to about 280 ppm in the pre-industrial
era (Stiling et al 1999).

Generally CO2 impacts on insects are thought to be indirect - impact on insect damage
results from changes in the host crop. A rise in CO2 generally increases the carbon to nitrogen
ratio of plant tissues thereby reducing the nutritional quality for protein limited insects diluting
the nitrogen content of the tissues. The expected reactions from herbivores to the increase in
carbon to nitrogen ratio are compensatory feeding, concentrations of defensive chemicals in
plants and competition between pest species. Insects may accelerate their food intake to
compensate for reduced leaf nitrogen content,

The results of the meta-analysis of Stiling & Cornelissen (2007) demonstrated strong
responses of herbivores to elevated CO2 conditions, such as 1) a decline in insect abundance of
almost 22.0% in elevated as compared to ambient CO2 conditions, 2) an increase of almost
17.0% in consumption rates, 3) an increase of almost 4.0% in development time, 4) a decrease of
9.0% in relative growth rate and of 5) 5.0% in pupal weight.

 Bollworm larvae feeding on elevated CO2-grown pea plants, Pisum sativum at 700 ppm were
significantly smaller than those reared on plants grown under ambient-CO2 conditions.

 Eelevated CO2 could prolong the larvae duration and delay the development of cotton
bollworm larvae.

 Egg stage and first-instar larval stage of Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande), and the pupal
duration of Cnaphalocrocis medinalis (Guenee) were significantly decreased in an elevated
CO2 concentration Treatment.

 Soybeans grown in elevated CO2 atmosphere had 57% more damage from insects (primarily
Japanese beetle, potato leafhopper, western corn rootworm and Mexican bean beetle) than
those grown in today’s atmosphere. Increases in the levels of simple sugars in the soybean
leaves may have stimulated the additional insect feeding (Hamilton et al. 2005).

How changes in precipitation will affect insects

Some insects are sensitive to precipitation and are killed or removed from crops by heavy
rains.. Other insects such as pea aphids are not tolerant of drought. As with temperature,
precipitation changes can impact insect pest predators, parasites, and diseases resulting in a
complex dynamic.
It is predicted that more frequent and intense precipitation events may have negative impacts
on insect pest population. Similar to temperature, precipitation changes can impact insect
pest predators, parasites and diseases resulting in a complex dynamic manner.Increase in
rainfall will largely affect the species particularly the beetles with poor dispersal capabilities,
which will limit their ability to expand their home. Heavy down pour causes reduction in pest
population of Lepidopterans.

Effect of Increased ozone on troposphere

Enriched O3 atmospheres - increased activity of defense-related plant enzymes,

production of phenolics controlled by the shikimic acid pathway, such as tannins, and
decreasing the production of glycosides due to competition between branches of the pathway
for substrates.

Holton et al 2003 showed that the forest tent caterpillar, Malacosoma disstria (Hubner)
(Lepidoptera: Lasiocampidae) reared on plants grown under increased O 3 conditions were
larger and developed faster.

Impact of Climate change on natural enemies

• Climate change can have diverse effects on natural enemies of pests species, like
enhanced mortality with increasing temperatures, their decreased effectiveness in
controlling pests when pest distribution shift into regions outside the distribution of their
natural enemies, affected by climate (Prasad and O.M. Bambawale,2010).

• The parasitoid, Campoletis chlorideae developed successfully over the temperature range
of 12-37°C. The percentage pupal mortality of C. chlorideae increased above and below
22°C, with the highest mortality rate occurring at 37°C.

• Temperature has profound effect on fecundity and sex ratio of parasitoids. The egg
predator Cyrtorhinus lividipennis of BPH Brown Plant Hopper had increased attack rates
and decreased handling times with increasing temperatures until 32°C. At 35°C the attack
 rate and handling time decreased drastically. This implies that predator activity is likely
to increase with increasing temperatures up to a critical temperature of about 35°C
(Karuppaiah and Sujayanad, 2012).

Impact of Climate change on pollinators

Out of total pollination activity, over 80% is being performed by insects which is
negatively affected by climate change resulting in lower crop production.

• Climate change affects the phenology, local abundance and large scale distribution on
plants and pollination. Insect pollinated plants react more strongly to increase warming
than wind pollinated plants.

• Quantum of pollination decrease as there is disruption of natural synchronization between

the flower opening and visit of the pollinators like honey bees, wasps and butterflies.

• Recent study says that for every one degree celsius rise in temperature there will be 14%
loss in butterfly population.
Climate change and pest management: Challenges Ahead
• Emission of greenhouse gases can be minimized through adoption of conservation
agriculture like direct seeded rice, aerobic rice, SRI (System of Rice Intensification), crop
diversification, organic farming, bio-organic fertilisers and biological pest control, etc.
• Development of crop growth simulation models will be of greater relevance in studying
climate change impacts on pests and crop yield.
• Study, predict and map trends of potential changes in geographical distribution
development, incidence and population dynamics of insect pests their influence on the
abundance of insect pests and their natural enemies.
• Understand the changes in expression of resistance to insect pests and identify stable
sources of resistance and pyramid the resistance genes in commercial cultivars.
• Development of efficient weather based forewarning systems, to help growers ot prevent
pest outbreaks and avoid economic losses, reduce excessive use of chemical pesticides
etc.
Conclusions
1. The preponderance of evidence indicates that there will be an overall increase in the
number of outbreaks of a wider variety of insects and pathogens.
2. A complete understanding of the effects of these changes on the interactions between
insects and their host plants will be achieved only after controlled, factorial experiments
can be designed and followed over longer periods of time to predict future trends.
3. Predicting the impact of climate change on insects is a very complex exercise and a one
that involves a great deal of modeling.
4. The best economic strategy for farmers to follow is to use integrated pest management
practices to closely monitor insect and disease occurrence. Keeping pest and crop
management records over time will allow farmers to evaluate the economics and
environmental impact of pest control and determine the feasibility of using certain pest
management strategies or growing particular crops.
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