Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
DOI: 10.5585/bjm.v17i5.4178
Approved on:
1 08/25/2018
FACE OF UNCERTAINTY
Responsible Editor:
Prof. Dr. Evandro Luiz Lopes
Paul J.H. Schoemaker
Senior Fellow, Mack Institute at the Wharton School of the Evaluation Process:
University of Pennsylvania and formerly a professor at the Guest Paper
University of Chicago.
Author of many books and articles, including the Harvard Business
Review and MIT’s Sloan Management Review. Founder of several
companies.
ORCID: 0000-0002-3619-5335
George S. Day
Geoffrey T. Boisi Professor Emeritus at the Wharton School of the
University of Pennsylvania. A Marketing Legends from Amarican
Marketing Association.
ORCID: 0000-0003-4233-8432
________________________________
1This paper draws on George S. Day and Paul J.H. Schoemaker, “Adapting to Fast-changing Markets and
Technologies,” California Management Review, Vol. 58, No. 4, 2016 pp. 59-77 as well as our forthcoming book with
MIT Press (2019) titled See Sooner – Act Faster: How Vigilant Leaders Navigate Digital Turbulence.
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considered a success. At an even higher level, which cannot easily be sold or traded, in
leaders should recognize and laud not just contrast to financial securities. In a sense, they
projects that have succeeded, but also those that shadow or mimic call options.
failed – boldly perhaps, as long as it was for the The purpose of real options is to
right reasons. A related approach is to improve the firm’s strategic position in the face
deliberately sensitize the organizations not just of uncertain external change. For example, a
to actual mistakes but also potential ones. This company might bet modestly to understand a
latter approach was institutionalized by the new technology or market, either by supporting
Danish company Grundfoss which is the research in its own lab or through an
world’s leading manufacturer of pumps, from investment in a startup or a pilot launch. This
smallest to super large. At Grundfoss, assembly buys the firm an option to pull the plug if its
line workers are also asked to document things initial investment sours while preserving the
that almost went wrong. They learn as much opportunity to invest more once the pilot
from these near misses as from actual mistakes, project looks sufficiently promising. There are
just as the US Civil Aeronautics Board does several kinds of real options firms can create
from close calls with airplanes. depending on the degree of uncertainty in the
technology and the market. As shown in Figure
Deploying Real Options 1, different kinds of options can serve different
purposes and successful firms develop a
Trying different things, probing portfolio of varied types.iv
puzzling questions deeply, and being alert to
the unexpected are all valuable ways to learn Preserve and protect options. These are
faster. But to getcloser to the truth may require used when the market and technology
a significant financial investment beyond what spaces are familiar and uncertainty is
is typically allowed in an exploration budget. significant but manageable using
This is where real options approach shines since standard tools. Such options are used
real money and commitment are needed now to to respond to possible competitive
get a strategic edge on the competition. The moves, shift in market requirements, or
essence of a real or shadow option is the make surprises in the economic climate.
a significant investment to create a strategic They are created through carefully
position without making a full commitment yet. developed experiments that test
The firm makes this bet to secure the right to different strategic responses, and
make a further investment once more anticipatory development programs
information has been gleaned, but without any that ensure the firm is not behind when
obligation to do so. Akin to a call option in rivals move.
finance, you invest less upfront than needed to
own a security fully, but for a limited time Scouting options. There are cautious
period you can buy more at the initial price in investments made to discover new
case the stock rises. And if the stock does not technologies or new markets when
rise during the option’s time window, then you uncertainty is still quite high, beyond
can let is expire and limit your loss to the the reach of standard tools like NPV
upfront investment. This same concept analysis. The scouting metaphor from
underlying financial call options applies to real the military is apt; to find an enemy, the
options. They are called “real” options since army sends out scouts; even if these
they entail bets on real business investments, scouts fail to return due to capture or
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death, the generals will at least develop and sunk costs until sufficient
rough knowledge of the whereabouts commercial feasibility has been
of the enemy. Scouting forays are established. These small exploratory
especially useful when the market or investments help the firm acquire
technology is hard to discern or additional business experiences that
quantify. can later be parlayed into larger
strategic commitments. Small R&D
Exploratory options. These are mostly investments, joint ventures, or in start-
stepping stone options, entailing high ups in new technologies or markets can
market and technical uncertainty. Their serve this purpose.
goal is to minimize fixed investments
took Alfred Sloan and his team over a decade to the new strategy threatens to undercut the
get it fully right as detailed in his biography My competencies of the core business. The greater
Years with General Motors. A contrasting case is the differences, the less the new business
the slow and inadequate organizational should be tied to the mother ship and the more
transformation attempted by Kodak. it needs to develop its own capabilities and
The Kodak case is not one where degrees of freedom. Many large companies
leaders failed to anticipate change or create establish separate organizational units
options. Eastman Kodak had actually dedicated to pursuing new endeavors that
developed some of the earliest digital don’t fit well the old. At their best, these
technologies for photography. Both its scientific “cocoons” generate internal flexibility and
staff and senior leaders recognized how entrepreneurial dynamism. GM’s Saturn
disruptive the digital imaging revolution could division, IBM’s PC unit, and Roche’s Genentech
be. But they badly underestimated the speed investment are well-known examples. By
and breadth of its impact. Kodak had launched “cocooning” a new business, a firm establishes
numerous digital projects early on, with clear walls so that the new group can
technological advantages in many. However, “experiment within bounds” – trying out new
these electronic imaging activities were widely approaches while still benefiting from the
dispersed, without a cohesive overall strategy resources and experience of the parent
and limited accountability for market organization. Royal Dutch Shell had such a unit
performance. in London in the 1980s called Non-Traditional
When it became clear that more focus Businesses. Its acronym NTB became known,
was needed around digital strategies, Kodak however, as Not to Be Businesses underscoring
brought in a highly regarded outside CEO in the challenge of making NewCo thrive in the
1993. The company hired George Fisher who shadow, or under the thumb, of OldCo. vii Few
had led Motorola to great success as CEO there. top executives wanted to risk their careers on
Fisher assembled all of Kodak’s digital imaging NewCo ventures, often for good reasons.
projects into a single autonomous digital When tackling completely new or
division, and charged that division with disruptive technologies, both physical and
launching new products. In a marked departure structural separation may be necessary, such as
from the dominant culture, which encouraged a separate division that reports to senior
teams to “go it alone,” Fisher also initiated a management or even launching an equity spin-
number of joint alliances for digital imaging out to attract new capital and fresh talent. Even
projects. To the “old guard” at Kodak, Fisher’s if such a full degree of separation is not
moves seemed bold, even aggressive. In warranted, it may still be desirable to have
retrospect, however, these maneuvers proved separate funding and accounting, so that losses
to be too little- too late, especially since the from the new projects are not carried by an
company’s silent middle was not on board. established business unit. The new venture
Midlevel managers did not really understand may also need the freedom to set its own policies
the need for urgency, felt threatened, and in in order to match the realities of building a new
many small ways retarded progress. business in a different market space. Ideally, a
Organizational separation may make or new venture should be able to attract the best
break new strategic initiatives. How much talent, have the latitude to do fast prototyping
independence is needed in a particular case and develop options for ill-defined markets,
depends on the magnitude of the technological while keeping restrictive controls and
discontinuity, the speed of change, and whether burdensome overhead to a minimum. But this
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is more the exception than the rule since Voice” detailing model, asking the sales
organizations are political systems in which representatives to buckle down and apply
power, control and accountability play key greater effort to connect with “key prescribers,”
roles. To illustrate the need for customized physicians with a demonstrated history of
solutions, and the importance of integrating prescribing Novartis’ target products. These
strategy, context and leadership, we compare interactions were brief, one-way
two cases below about how to respond properly communications that felt, to the sales
to technological changes in the market place. representatives, like monologues. As a result
Novartis Pharmaceuticals had little data on
Novartis’ Digital Strategies how their drugs were being perceived and used
by their customers, and no way of knowing
The sales side of the pharmaceutical what sales strategies were most effective.
industry represent an instructive example of In response to the declining sales and
how fast adaptation of digital technologies can the mounting frustration of the sales force,
bestow a competitive advantage. Historically, Novartis leadership launched an initiative in
pharma companies relied on a “Share of Voice” 2012 to help 25,000 sales representatives in 80
model. Sales representatives paid visit after countries engage with doctors in consultative
visit to prescribing physicians, following a two-way dialogues.viii Value-added services
carefully constructed script and leaving a and broad channels of communication replaced
standard set of printed materials, along with the simple recitation of standard messages, and
branded pens, pads and other swag, at the front the hand-over of static, general sales
desk. Through the “fat years” of block-buster documents. This initiative envisioned new,
drug breakthroughs, handsome margins meant technologically enabled communications
there was no need for pharma companies to re- between sales representatives and physicians,
invent their standard approach. Eventually, such that answers could be provided in real
both external forces and internal shortcomings time, by bringing in the appropriate scientific
led to the gradual decline of the blockbuster era. staff. Reps could immediately access whatever
Many drugs lost their patent protection, and data the doctor would find most relevant to
weak R&D pipelines meant that they were no their patients, whether it was efficacy in
ready replacements. Generic versions captured women, safety in the elderly, or the risks of
market share and led to sharp price cuts. interactions with other drugs being prescribed.
Simultaneously, purchasing power and This allowed the conversation to flow naturally,
influence shifted to consolidating payers and rather than being set by a rigid agenda and
providers. Payers instituted formulary lists, formulaic sales pitch.
which restricted the number of approved Novartis leadership decided to equip
medications that a physician could prescribe. their sales representatives with mobile devices
By 2011 the sales force at Novartis that enabled videoconferencing (often, across
Pharmaceuticals was quite demoralized about multiple locations) while accessing the latest
all this. Sales representatives found themselves digital information and interactive patient
operating in a radically changed world; their tools. This digital platform also encouraged
access to physicians was now far more limited, direct sharing of innovative practices across
and the number of new products that they countries, rather than relying on mostly one-
could discuss when they did get in the door was way messages from headquarters to the
dwindling as well. Nevertheless, Novartis’ regions. While some competitor firms were
leaders stayed with the traditional “Share of also using digital sales tools, they were
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designed with limited functionality to support, problems and spot market opportunities
rather than supplant, the conventional sales sooner, as well as sensitize the entire
model. organization to making decisions from the
The Novartis customer engagement outside-in. The key here was the cross-
initiative was implemented by teams of functional collaboration of the users of the
dedicated leaders representing the information information and those who managing
technology, scientific and commercial information files.
functions. The CEO’s clear commitment to this
effort lent it credence; the personal credentials Seizing Opportunities. The spirit of trial-
of the chosen team leaders gave it additional and-error learning further suffused the
slanting. Especially important was the customer engagement initiative. As many as 42
designation of the respected head of IT in pilot tests were conducted in multiple countries
Europe to lead the initiative. In each major to learn how best to design the platform, decide
country, teams rolled out the program to great what features to include, and importantly to
effect. Their success can be attributed to highly monitor acceptance by the sales
skillful orchestrations of the following dynamic representatives. The feedback from these
capabilities, each being crucial to leveraging the experiments was crucial to the final investment
digital revolution. commitment decision.
Before the digital sales platform was in
Seeing Sooner. Changing the sales use. Novartis sales representatives detailed
representative’s interactions with doctors from only one or two drugs at a time in their
“monologues” to “dialogues” allowed Novartis meetings with potential buyers. The new
to better sense weak signals from conversations digital platform allows reps to carry an entire
with its customers. Compare this to the analogy portfolio of drug presentations that can
of having multiple thermometers in a room to instantly connect to research papers regarding
ensure an isotropic climate – using 25,000 direct side effects and off-label use requests, as well as
touch points with customers. Novartis is more expert opinions, visuals of clinical pathways,
apt to understand what factors are becoming and more. The platform provides reps with
most relevant and important to its customers. multiple pathways to “win” going into their
Over half a million calls with the digital sales meetings, rather than the traditional idea
platform have taken place since May 2014 and of forcing a single drug upon a buyer in a sales
80 percent of employees say the digital platform meeting.
has had a positive effect on how they
communicate with doctors. The new norm of Organizational Transformation. The
“e-detailing” allows Novartis to increase its ultimate success of the platform depended
touch points, even with the “no-see doctors” heavily on the innovative work by various
who had chosen to opt-out of the old in-person development partners. This required a non-
visitation model. linear navigation approach that would let the
The digital customer engagement user jump through different content domains
platform captures detailed information about without losing eye contact with the physician.
the interactions of sales representatives, The company also collaborated with a cloud-
improves understanding of customer’s based provider of the software platform, and
preferences, and then personalizes the both were guided by numerous experiments
marketing message. As DuPont deepened its with sales representatives. In addition, local
market knowledge, it could notice budding graphics agencies got involved to work on the
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information architecture, file formats and importance varied across six sub-capabilities
graphic design to buttress Novartis’ with Vigilant Learning ranking the highest,
commercial teams in areas where they lacked while organizational redesign scored medium
skill or experience. in importance for this specific case. To further
Novartis stepped beyond industry underscore this context dependence, the second
norms with its deep commitment to a vision of column profiles the next case we shall examine,
a “digital future” within their sales force. namely DuPont’s long-term strategy to obtain a
According to former CEO Joe Jimenz, iPad leadership position in the changing landscape
adoption created an annual savings of 250 of biofuels. In the Novartis case, fast
hours for each sales representative and enabled exploratory action was crucial since they
an additional 35,000 customer visits per year. wanted to be ahead of their rivals and the
Given this initial successes, the iPad experiment prevailing bias in large organizations is to be
should be viewed as part of Novartis’ broader stymied by uncertainty. But there is now an
organizational strategy toward embracing of extensive literature that challenges an overly
innovative technology. Recent investments in aggressive pursuit of first mover strategies,
technologies to improve remote health suggesting that being a fast follower is often
monitoring, drug adherence, and optical better. However, this is not always true either
solutions in organizational functions other than and the real challenge for leaders is to find the
sales are indicative of this new thrust as well. optimal timing for each move given the pros
The Novartis experience highlights the and cons, as illustrated next with DuPont’s long
contingent nature of dynamic capabilities listed term strategy over decades.
in Figure 2. It shows how their relative
advantage, waiting to learn more, preserving decade prior to its launch. Since the early
flexibility and learning by doing. ix
This last 1990s, DuPont possessed top notch capabilities
item especially will require making real for make renewable polymers. But the
commitments to see how well a technology company could not do so profitably due to the
works when scaled up, what the reactions of high costs of producing a key ingredient,
rivals might be, or the organization’s ability to Propanediol (PDO), which was needed in its
execute a complex strategy. The step-building hydrocarbon-based chemical process. To solve
approach to developing a strong long term this problem, DuPont began experimenting
strategic position, using disciplined patience with ways of producing PDO through
when needed, is well illustrated by the DuPont biotechnology by using living organisms to
example below. It shows how this company synthesize the compound. The project used
systematically developed a broad portfolio of organisms called methanotropes which
real-options for its extensive biofuel initiative, require large amounts of methane and a
with the help external partners where needed, fermenter to implement. DuPont found a
while also keeping its parent (DuPont company in Norway that had already built a
Corporate) sufficiently involved. fermenter to handle methane generated as a
The urgent need for green by-product of oil production and approached
technologies represented fertile grounds for them to create an alliance. Combined with
DuPont and other companies to grow. But DuPont’s own software, the Norwegian
exploring alternative energy entails a daunting hardware allowed the concept to be piloted
level of challenge. There are significant capital without massive investments and risk. The
risks to be absorbed and diverse stakeholders testing resulted in the successful development
to be brought on board. Few firms can go it of a new process that could produce PDO from
alone since public and private collaborations corn starch (Bio-PDO) at lower cost. Shortly
are crucial in clean energy.x DuPont launched thereafter, DuPont successfully launched
its biofuels initiative around 2001 to leverage Sorona, the synthetic polymer used in soft
the company’s overall biotech expertise and floor covering, textiles, and packaging.
long-standing competencies in DuPont quickly began to apply this
commercializing material, chemical and newly acquired base of technical competence
biological sciences. The biofuel team used a in biotech to other endeavors. Given its
real options approach to narrow almost 50 traditional use of energy as a major input as
opportunities down to 12 strategic initiatives, well as previous ownership of Conoco, the
including biofuels, bio-materials and bio- company had a thorough understanding of
medical businesses. For example, to develop trends in energy markets. Using its superior
biomass technologies, DuPont created a $40 peripheral vision, DuPont spotted an
million joint project with the U.S. government. opportunity to apply its new innovation to the
To explore biomaterials, it made more than a fuels sector. The company not only saw that
dozen investments in areas such as sustainable many governments were getting serious about
materials and energy, applied bio-surfaces, energy security and climate change, but also
and therapeutics. As one manager said, “We understood that ethanol, the widely produced
kept asking, how do we reduce the alternative fuel source, was a “disadvantaged”
uncertainty? How do we get a platform we can one. It cost at least twice as much as gasoline
build on?” to produce, had a significantly lower energy
content per unit compared to gasoline, and
Sensing. The crucial sensing period for could be distributed using the same
DuPont’s biofuel initiative actually began a infrastructure as gasoline and diesel.xi So
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DuPont started strategizing about how to enter resources. Thus, reductions in greenhouse gas
this new market. emissions achievable through its production
When asked, during an interview in were too low to make these products worth
2007, how DuPont made the leap from exploring further. Instead, DuPont’s R&D
Sorona to biofuels, John Ranieri, DuPont’s focus shifted toward second generation
Biofuels Vice President and General Manager biofuels, using microbes and enzymes to
at the time, noted that decision-makers at the convert non-food cellulose materials into
company could now ask the right questions, a sugars that could be used to create biofuels. xiii
key component to vigilant learning. xii It was To do so, DuPont employed open
always obvious that ethanol had significant innovation. The first facility to produce ethanol
limitations and that there was a great need in from non-food biomass was built through a
the fuel opportunity space, but only after 50/50 joint venture with Danisco in Denmark,
developing their new core competency in the world’s largest industrial enzyme
biotechnology could researchers at DuPont company (together with Novozymes). To
ask, “Well, what biofuel would I like to make?” bring this production to commercial scale, a
That question was not a valid one before. As second joint venture facility was completed in
John Ranieri put it, “That’s really the key to 2014, at an estimated capital cost of $200
innovation: it’s not about always having the million. At this point, the focus narrowed to
answers―it’s about first being able to ask the cellulosic ethanol produced from corn stover,
right questions.” which is the readily-available biomass
While sensing is opportunity in consisting of the stalks, leaves and cobs that
biofuels, DuPont displayed superior vigilant remains after the harvesting of industrial corn.
learning skills as well: embedded in the This product was not without risk: through
company culture is the process of triangulating extensive work with auto and oil companies,
perspectives on a complex issue. The DuPont had come to understand its
company’s corporate strategy can be limitations. Due to a vapor pressure that
summarized by the phrase “sustainable exceeds that of traditional gasoline, this form
growth.” The aim is to enhance shareholder of ethanol is incompatible with parts of the
value, contribute positively to society, while traditional fuel infrastructure.
also decreasing its environmental “footprint” Even with these risks in mind, DuPont
along the value chains in which it operates. saw the innate potential of a higher value fuel
These are three very different lenses through that leveraged corn stover as feedstock and
which DuPont looked to analyze its biofuel used a genetically modified micro-organism to
initiative. produce iso-butanol. This led to a joint venture
with BP called Butamax Advanced Biofuels,
Seizing. To seize the newly identified combining BP’s refining and distribution
opportunity, DuPont first probed and then prowess with DuPont’s proprietary
invested its capital in a flexible manner. This biotechnology. This joint venture was able to
focus on adaptive experimentation and address and resolve further technological
learning led DuPont to explore investment challenges, such as the inherent high toxicity of
opportunities in many parts of the globe. The bio-butanol. After 1.5 million miles of vehicle
first generation of biofuels that DuPont testing, DuPont eventually resolved the issue
explored included corn ethanol and soybean of compatibility with existing vehicles and
diesel fuel. Eventually, it became clear that infrastructure. In early 2014, the joint venture
both corn ethanol and soybean diesel fuel submitted a 16% butanol fuel to EPA for
required very high land-use and water regulatory approval. The economics appeared
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attractive; one estimate assumed that bio- Secondly, the foundation that made
butanol would be competitive with oil at $70 - DuPont’s biofuel initiative possible was laid
$80 per barrel. It remains to be seen whether oil with the original creation of the Applied
at $50 a barrel will jeopardize the project. xiv Biosciences business unit. It was to function as
The DuPont biofuels experience its own separate platform with the agility and
demonstrates how crucial dynamic capabilities flexibility to use resources to look for skills
are to the exploration of new businesses, within the corporation that could aid in
especially those in highly technical and pursuing emerging market opportunities.
uncertain markets. In this case, large And lastly, the company developed
investment commitments are highly partnerships with Fagen Inc plus, a consortium
contingent on the concurrent development of of early adopters to support the rapid build out
an emerging technology. After a full decade of of bio-butanol production. The company also
R&D, DuPont’s time-to-market was more than remained vigilant about seeking and applying
seven years. These patient investments were insights from the market. Throughout its 17
protected by a series of patents issued in 2005, years of exploration, DuPont remained highly
allowing for long-term, sustained investment. alert to the changing needs of automakers,
Ultimately, the goal was achieved. In regulators (including the EPA), oil companies,
hindsight, DuPont’s most important dynamic legislators and agencies whose regulatory
capability was its commitment to learning decisions could influence demand.
from real options, which allowed critical Figure 2 compares the dynamic sub-
opportunities to be explored through relatively capabilities at play across the DuPont and
small, staged investments. By limiting Novartis cases to highlight key differences.
investment exposure, DuPont “reserved its The scale of investment commitment is clearly
right” to withdraw if certain technologies one crucial contingency factor.xv Although it
didn’t bear fruit. More significantly, DuPont isn’t free to put an interactive digital device
could move ahead with the most promising into the hands of 25,000 sales representatives,
technologies without significant loss of time this investment pales in comparison to the
and limited up front risk. multiple billions DuPont poured into biofuels.
Digital technologies typically require smaller
Transforming. Nearly as important was investments, within a far narrower time frame
DuPont’s decision to redefine the company’s – and thus need a supporting ecosystem that is
research culture, create organizational agile and responsive. Another contingency
separation between the new ventures and the factor concerns the firm’s strategic intent when
mother ship, and to actively engage with deploying new technologies: is the aim to
external partners with a common stake in develop a few emerging technologies that
successful outcomes. John Ranieri remarked develop slowly over time, and thereby provide
that DuPont asks teams to tackle the toughest a virtual guarantee of sustained market
problems first, the ones that really prevent a leadership – or is it, instead, to develop a wide
product from getting to market. According to range of rapidly evolving technologies that can
Ranieri, many other firms that conduct potentially disrupt existing markets? Biofuels
scientific research will do the opposite, represent the former and digital
teaching their teams to solve the quick and transformation the latter.
easy problems first before tackling the big The two cases we profiled differ in
issues. This fundamental organizational shift other key respects as well, suggesting
in process helped DuPont avoid “rat holes,” additional customization factors. For example,
ensuring flexible and probing investments. the digital technologies underlying the
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Novartis strategy were widely available, so traditional strategy process of long internal
there would be very little intellectual property debates leading to detailed budgets and multi-
in the form of patent protection. The main year plans is replaced by greater clarity and
advantage Novartis gained, as an early mover, consistency about how to sustain an advantage
was to stay ahead of the competition for some built around dynamic capabilities, structures,
time. The role of time is quite different in the and processes.xvi
biofuels case, however, with DuPont Even the best designed strategies and
deliberately investing in long term patents capabilities, however, cannot succeed without
over time in order to establish firm beachheads seasoned managerial judgment. No strategic
against competitors encroaching on their architect can envision all possible scenarios the
space. Relatedly, the far lower investment firm may encounter. When Jeff Immelt took
requirements in the Novartis case represent a over as CEO of General Electric (GE) in 1991,
low capital barriers to entry but a strong first following several decades of spectacular
mover advantage. Furthermore, compared to wealth creation by legendary CEO Jack Welch,
biofuels and clean energy, the adoption of he could hardly have anticipated what awaited
digital technologies has not so far been him. In his words, “When I started I could never
constrained heavily by regulations, and has have forecast so many tail-risk events hitting GE:
thus far entailed fewer stakeholders and 9/11, Enron, Hurricane Katrina, Fukushima, the
influencers. These features make customer global financial crisis.”xvii Immelt could also
data analytics a more promising case for have added various Arab Springs that turned
virtual capability building with partners than into foreboding autumns, China asserting its
biofuels. But this is changing due to rising power in Asia and beyond, protracted civil
privacy concerns about personal data (as wars in Syria and Iraq, global warming
Facebook experienced) and large security challenges, prolonged unemployment, and
breaches in many firms. European regulations myriad other black swans. Immelt’s eventual
afoot as we write this may greatly change the undoing as CEO came when poorly timely bets
landscape. on energy and infrastructure led to stock
declines during 2017. Adaptation strategies
Adaptation, Speed And Leadership clearly cannot be reduced to algorithms, nor
can CEOs be replaced by robots or AI for a long
“If the rate of change inside an time to come. Instead, organizations need to
organization is less than the rate outside, develop sufficient leadership capacity and
the end is in sight…Leaders must develop bench strength to deal with the unexpected.
a sixth sense, an ability to see around the
Developing dynamic action
corner” Jack Welch
capabilities throughout the organization is a
powerful way to manage stormy waters with
Organizations best able to handle fast
fast moving currents. But by necessity, these
changing markets and technologies develop
systems are premised on subjective world
customized capabilities to sense change and
views about what matters in the current
seize opportunities faster than rivals.
environment and also what may lie ahead.
Nonetheless, adaptive organizations share
The contingent nature of dynamic capabilities
some common characteristics as well, such as
will often favor the known present over the
being resilient and information being more
unknown future. Ideally, sense and response
free-flowing. They favor just-in-time decision-
systems should be less tailored to the firm’s
making, sharing key activities with network
current environment or strategy and more to
partners, and learning to profit from increased
future trends and uncertainties. But even in
market and technology uncertainty. The
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Strategic Actions in the Face of Uncertainty
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the best case, much will be missed in fast blindsided, the organization should get
changing environments. This means that stronger rather than weaker, in the spirit of
strategic leaders, rather than organizational Taleb’s anti-fragility theory. xviii Paraphrasing
systems, remain last line of defense when back Nietzsche’s famous aphorism: what doesn’t
swans appear. And each time they do get kill the firm should make it stronger.
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e-ISSN: 2177-5184
DOI: 10.5585/bjm.v17i5.4178
AÇÕES ESTRATÉGICAS
Recebido em:
21/06/2018
Aceito em:
1 25/08/2018
DIANTE DA INCERTEZA
Editor Responsável:
Prof. Dr. Evandro Luiz Lopes
Paul J.H. Schoemaker
Senior Fellow, Mack Institute at the Wharton School of the Processo de Avaliação:
University of Pennsylvania and formerly a professor at the Artigo convidado
University of Chicago.
Author of many books and articles, including the Harvard
Business Review and MIT’s Sloan Management Review. Founder
of several companies.
George S. Day
Geoffrey T. Boisi Professor Emeritus at the Wharton School of the
University of Pennsylvania. A Marketing Legends from
Amarican Marketing Association.
ORCID: 0000-0003-4233-8432
________________________________
1 Este artigo baseia-se em George S. Day & Paul J.H. Schoemaker, “Adapting to Fast-changing Markets and Technologies,”
California Management Review, Vol. 58, No. 4, 2016 pp. 59-77, bem como em nosso próximo livro com o MIT Press (2019),
intitulado See Sooner – Act Faster: How Vigilant Leaders Navigate Digital Turbulence.
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possíveis ações, uma vez que a incerteza tenha permitido em um orçamento de exploração. É aí
sido cirurgicamente reduzida. Pensar em que a abordagem de opções reais brilha, já que
opções diz sobre avaliar o valor econômico de dinheiro real e comprometimento são
possíveis dados futuros, bem como manter a necessários para ganhar vantagem estratégica
flexibilidade dentro do contexto de uma decisão sobre a concorrência. A essência de uma opção
ou estratégia específica. real ou irreal é fazer um investimento
Uma empresa com tolerância adequada significativo para criar uma posição estratégica
a falhas, como parte de sua estratégia de sem o comprometer totalmente ainda. A
planejamento de opções, é aquela em que os empresa faz esta aposta para assegurar o direito
líderes reconhecem que cada adversidade traz de realizar um investimento adicional, uma vez
um revestimento de prata, em termos do que mais informações foram recolhidas, mas
potencial de percepção. Por exemplo, os líderes sem qualquer obrigação de ação. Do mesmo
podem conduzir post-mortems para todos os modo, para uma opção de compra em finanças,
grandes projetos e investimentos, você investe menos do que o necessário para ter
especialmente aqueles que não foram uma garantia total, mas o faz por um período
amplamente considerados um sucesso. Em um de tempo limitado para poder comprar mais
nível ainda mais alto, os líderes devem pelo preço inicial, caso a ação aumente. E se o
reconhecer e elogiar não apenas os projetos que estoque não subir durante o período de tempo
foram bem-sucedidos, mas também os que da opção, então você o deixará expirar e
falharam – corajosamente talvez, desde que as limitará sua perda ao investimento inicial. Esse
falhas se dessem pelas razões certas. Uma mesmo conceito subjacente às opções de
abordagem relacionada pode voltar-se para compra financeira se aplica às opções reais.
deliberadamente sensibilizar as organizações, Essas opções são chamadas de “reais”, pois
não apenas para erros reais, mas também para implicam apostas em investimentos em
erros potenciais. Esta última abordagem foi negócios reais, que não podem ser facilmente
institucionalizada pela empresa dinamarquesa vendidos ou negociados, em contraste com os
Grundfoss, que é líder mundial na fabricação de títulos financeiros. De certa forma, elas
bombas, das menores às gigantes. Na sombreiam ou imitam opções de chamadas.
Grundfoss, os trabalhadores da linha de O objetivo das opções reais é melhorar
montagem são também solicitados a a posição estratégica da empresa diante de
documentar coisas que quase correram mal. mudanças externas incertas. Por exemplo, uma
Eles aprendem tanto com essas falhas quanto empresa pode apostar pouco na compreensão
com erros reais, assim como o Conselho de de uma nova tecnologia ou mercado, seja
Aeronáutica Civil dos Estados Unidos faz de apoiando pesquisas em seu próprio laboratório
perto com seus aviões. ou investindo em uma startup ou lançamento
piloto. Isso proporciona à empresa uma opção
Implantar Opções Reais para “puxar o plugue”, se o seu investimento
inicial se esgotar, ao mesmo tempo em que
Tentar coisas diferentes, investigar preserva a oportunidade de investir mais, uma
profundamente questões intrigantes e estar vez que o projeto piloto parece suficientemente
alerta para o inesperado são maneiras valiosas promissor. Existem vários tipos de opções reais
de aprender mais rápido. Porém, reconhecemos que as empresas podem criar, dependendo do
que chegar mais perto da verdade pode grau de incerteza na tecnologia e no mercado.
demandar um investimento financeiro Conforme Figura 1, diferentes tipos de opções
significativo, além do que é normalmente podem servir a propósitos diferentes e
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Transformar: Interna e Externamente GM, que poderiam passar a operar com maior
autonomia. A busca plena de opções
Nesta seção, nos movemos para além inovadoras, por vezes, exigirá maior separação
dos investimentos individuais ou mesmo de organizacional dos “pais”, mas isso é ótimo e
carteiras inteiras, e enfatizamos a importância envolve muitos julgamentos de liderança.
da transformação organizacionalxxiii. Em muitos Alfred Sloan e sua equipe levaram mais de uma
casos, novas oportunidades de negócios só década para acertar o passo completamente,
podem ser aproveitadas na íntegra se a conforme detalhado em sua biografia My Years
organização estiver adequadamente alinhada, with General Motors. Um caso contrastante seria
ou talvez reestruturada fundamentalmente. a lenta e inadequada transformação
Dependendo da estratégia de negócios mais organizacional tentada pela empresa Kodak.
ampla envolvida, isso pode exigir várias O caso da Kodak não é um em que os
capacidades de modelagem organizacional xxiv. líderes falharam em antecipar a mudança ou na
Um exemplo clássico é a transição da criação de opções. A Eastman Kodak Company
empresa General Motors durante a década de desenvolveu algumas das primeiras
1930, mudando de um design funcional para tecnologias digitais para fotografia. Tanto a
uma forma multidivisional, sob a liderança equipe científica quanto os líderes seniores
eficiente e dinâmica de Alfred Sloan. Esse reconheceram o quão disruptiva a revolução da
redesenho organizacional foi fundamental para imagem digital poderia se tornar. Porém, os
implementar a estratégia da GM de competição líderes subestimaram a velocidade e a
com o modelo T da Ford, diversificando as amplitude desse impacto. A Kodak lançou
ofertas de produtos da GM. Tal movimento inúmeros projetos digitais desde o início, com
ousado deu origem ao Cadillac, à Oldsmobile, à vantagens tecnológicas demonstradas em
Chevrolet e outras divisões dentro da própria muitos. No entanto, essas atividades de geração
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definida por uma agenda rígida e um discurso clima isotrópico – usando 25.000 pontos de
de vendas estereotipado. contato diretos com os clientes. Assim, a
As lideranças da Novartis decidiram Novartis está mais apta a entender quais fatores
equipar seus representantes de vendas com estão se tornando mais relevantes e importantes
dispositivos móveis que permitiram para seus clientes. Mais de meio milhão de
videoconferências (frequentemente, em vários chamadas com a plataforma digital ocorreram
locais), enquanto acessavam as mais recentes desde maio de 2014 e 80% dos funcionários
informações digitais e ferramentas interativas dizem que a plataforma digital teve um efeito
para pacientes. Essa plataforma digital também positivo sobre como eles se comunicam com os
incentivou o compartilhamento direto de médicos. A nova norma de “e-detalhamento”
práticas inovadoras entre países, em vez de permite que a Novartis aumente seus pontos de
depender exclusivamente de mensagens contato, mesmo com os “médicos que não
unidirecionais da matriz para as regiões. veem” e que optaram por não participar do
Embora algumas empresas concorrentes antigo modelo de visitação presencial.
também estivessem usando ferramentas de A plataforma digital de envolvimento
vendas digitais, elas foram projetadas com do cliente captura informações detalhadas
funcionalidade limitada para suportar, em vez sobre as interações dos representantes de
de suplantar, o modelo de vendas vendas, melhora a compreensão das
convencional. preferências do cliente e, assim, personaliza a
A iniciativa de envolvimento do cliente mensagem de marketing. À medida que a
realizada pela Novartis foi implantada por Novartis aprofunda seu conhecimento de
equipes de líderes dedicados, que representam mercado, pode notar problemas iniciais e
as funções de tecnologia da informação, identificar oportunidades de mercado
científicas e comerciais. O evidente precocemente, além de sensibilizar toda a
compromisso do CEO com esse esforço deu organização para tomar decisões vindas de fora
crédito a ele, sendo que as credenciais pessoais para dentro. A chave era a colaboração
dos líderes de equipe escolhidos à estratégia multifuncional dos usuários da informação e
uma inclinação adicional. Foi especialmente daqueles que gerenciavam arquivos de
importante a designação do respeitado chefe de informação.
TI da empresa na Europa, para liderar a
iniciativa. Em cada país com operações da Aproveitar oportunidades: O espírito
empresa, as equipes implantaram o programa do aprendizado por tentativa e erro também
com grande eficácia. Seu sucesso pode ser influenciou a iniciativa de envolvimento do
atribuído a orquestrações altamente habilidosas cliente. Até 42 testes piloto foram realizados em
das seguintes capacidades dinâmicas, cada uma vários países para aprender a melhor forma de
sendo crucial para alavancar a revolução projetar a plataforma, decidir quais recursos
digital. incluir e, principalmente, monitorar a aceitação
pelos representantes de vendas. As devolutivas
Ver mais cedo: Mudar as interações do desses experimentos foram cruciais para a
representante de vendas com os médicos, decisão final de compromisso de investimento.
transformando “monólogos” em “diálogos”, Antes da plataforma de vendas digitais
permitiu que a Novartis percebesse melhor estar em uso, os representantes de vendas da
sinais fracos de conversas com clientes. Novartis detalharam apenas um ou dois
Compare isso com a analogia haver vários medicamentos de cada vez em suas reuniões
termômetros em uma sala para garantir um com potenciais compradores. A nova
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plataforma digital permitiu que os clientes por ano. Dados esses sucessos iniciais,
representantes carregassem todo um portfólio o experimento do iPad pode ser visto como
de apresentações de medicamentos, que parte da estratégia organizacional mais ampla
poderiam se conectar instantaneamente a da Novartis, em relação à adoção de tecnologia
trabalhos de pesquisa sobre efeitos colaterais e inovadora. Investimentos recentes em
solicitações de uso off-label, bem como com tecnologias para melhorar o monitoramento
opiniões de especialistas, imagens de caminhos remoto da saúde, a adesão às drogas e as
clínicos e muito mais. A plataforma passou a soluções ópticas em outras funções
fornecer, aos representantes, vários caminhos organizacionais, além das vendas, são também
para conquistar sua entrada em reuniões de indicativos desse novo impulso.
vendas, em vez da tradicional ideia de se forçar A experiência da Novartis destaca a
um único medicamento a um comprador em natureza contingente das capacidades
uma reunião de vendas. dinâmicas listadas na Figura 2. A figura mostra
como a importância relativa dessas capacidades
Transformação Organizacional: O variou em seis subcapacidades, com a
sucesso final da plataforma dependia do classificação em Aprendizagem Vigilante mais
trabalho inovador de vários parceiros de alta, enquanto a Reformulação Organizacional
desenvolvimento. Isso exigia uma abordagem obteve importância média para esse caso
de navegação não linear, que permitisse ao específico. Para destacar ainda mais essa
usuário passar por diferentes domínios de dependência do contexto, a segunda coluna da
conteúdo sem perder o contato visual com o Figura 2 traça o próximo caso que
médico. A empresa também colaborou com um examinaremos, a saber, a estratégia de longo
provedor baseado em nuvem da plataforma de prazo da DuPont, para obter uma posição de
softwares e ambos foram guiados por numerosos liderança no cenário em dos biocombustíveis.
experimentos com representantes de vendas. No caso da Novartis, a ação exploratória rápida
Além disso, as agências gráficas locais se foi crucial, uma vez que eles queriam estar à
envolveram para trabalhar na arquitetura da frente dos concorrentes e que o viés
informação, nos formatos de arquivo e no design predominante nas organizações de grande
gráfico, para fortalecer as equipes comerciais da porte deve ser bloqueado pela incerteza. Porém,
Novartis em áreas nas quais não tinham agora existe uma extensa literatura que desafia
habilidade ou experiência. a busca extremamente agressiva por critérios de
A Novartis ultrapassou as normas do estratégias de pioneirismo, sugerindo que ser
setor com seu profundo comprometimento com um seguidor rápido é muitas vezes melhor.
a visão de um futuro digital, dentro de sua força Entretanto, isso nem sempre é também verdade
de vendas. De acordo com o ex-CEO, Joe e o real desafio para os líderes é encontrar o
Jimenz, a adoção do iPad gerou uma economia momento ideal para cada movimento,
anual de 250 horas para cada representante de considerando os prós e contras, como ilustrado
vendas e permitiu 35.000 visitas adicionais aos a seguir.
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última análise, o objetivo foi alcançado. Em um consórcio de early adopters, para apoiar a
retrospectiva, a capacidade dinâmica mais rápida construção da produção de bio-butanol.
importante da DuPont foi o seu compromisso A empresa também permaneceu vigilante sobre
de aprender com opções reais, o que permitiu a busca e aplicação de insights do mercado. Ao
que oportunidades críticas fossem exploradas longo de seus 17 anos de exploração, a DuPont
por meio de investimentos relativamente permaneceu atenta às novas necessidades das
pequenos em estágios. Ao limitar a exposição montadoras, reguladores (incluindo a EPA),
ao investimento, a DuPont reservou seu direito companhias petrolíferas, legisladores e
de desistir se certas tecnologias não gerassem agências, cujas decisões regulatórias poderiam
frutos. Mais significativamente, a DuPont influenciar a demanda.
poderia avançar com as tecnologias mais A Figura 2 comparou subcapacidades
promissoras sem perda significativa de tempo e dinâmicas nos casos DuPont e Novartis, para
com risco inicial limitado. destacar as principais diferenças.A escala de
compromisso de investimento é claramente um
Transformar. Quase tão importante fator de contingência crucialxxxiii. Embora não
para o caso, foi a decisão da DuPont de redefinir seja fácil colocar um dispositivo digital
a cultura de pesquisa da empresa, criar uma interativo nas mãos de 25.000 representantes de
separação organizacional entre os novos vendas, esse investimento esvanece em
empreendimentos e a nave-mãe e envolver-se comparação aos vários bilhões que a DuPont
ativamente com parceiros externos com uma despejou em biocombustíveis. As tecnologias
participação comum em resultados bem- digitais, normalmente, exigem investimentos
sucedidos. John Ranieri observou que a DuPont menores, dentro de um período de tempo muito
pede às equipes que resolvam os problemas mais restrito e precisam, portanto, de um
mais difíceis primeiro, os que realmente ecossistema de suporte ágil e responsivo. Outro
impedem que um produto chegue ao mercado. fator de contingência diz respeito à intenção
De acordo com Ranieri, muitas outras empresas estratégica da empresa ao implantar novas
que realizam pesquisas científicas fazem o tecnologias: o objetivo é desenvolver algumas
contrário, ensinando suas equipes a resolverem tecnologias emergentes que se desenvolvam
os problemas rápidos e fáceis antes de lentamente ao longo do tempo para, assim,
enfrentarem os grandes problemas. Essa fornecerem uma garantia virtual de liderança
mudança organizacional fundamental no sustentada de mercado. Ou, ao contrário,
processo ajudou a DuPont a evitar “buracos de desenvolverem uma ampla gama de
rato”, garantindo investimentos flexíveis e tecnologias em rápida evolução, as quais
investigativos. Em segundo lugar, a fundação podem potencialmente perturbar os mercados
que tornou possível a iniciativa de existentes? Os biocombustíveis representam a
biocombustível da DuPont foi lançada com a primeira e a transformação digital, a segunda.
criação original da unidade de negócios Os dois casos que analisamos diferem
Applied Biosciences. A empresa deveria em outros aspectos importantes, sugerindo
funcionar como sua própria plataforma fatores adicionais de customização. Por
separada, com agilidade e flexibilidade, para exemplo, as tecnologias digitais subjacentes à
serem usados recursos para procurar estratégia da Novartis estavam amplamente
habilidades dentro da corporação, os quais disponíveis, de modo que haveria muito pouca
pudessem ajudar na busca de oportunidades de propriedade intelectual na forma de proteção
mercados emergentes. Por último, a empresa por patente. A principal vantagem que a
desenvolveu parcerias com a Fagen Inc plus, Novartis obteve, como pioneira, foi se
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i
A.K. Dixit R.S. Pindyck, “The Options Approach Time Adaptation: Perspective from Silicon Valley,”
to Capital Investment,” Harvard Business Review, California Management Review, 53/3 (Spring 2011)
May-June 1995, 105-15; I.C. MacMillan and R. 21-39.
Gunther McGrath, “Crafting R&D Project
Portfolios,” Research Technology Management,
September-October 2002, 48-59. vi
D.J. Teece, G. Pisano, & A. Shuen, “Dynamic
capabilities and strategic management.” Strategic
ii
T. Kelley, The Art of Innovation, New York: Management Journal, 18/(7) 1997, pp. 509-533;
Doubleday, 2001 and G.S. Lynn, J.G. Morone, and see also D.J. Teece, Explicating dynamic
A. Paulson, “Marketing Discontinuous Innovation: capabilities: the nature and micro-foundations of
The Probe-and-Learn Process” California (sustainable) enterprise performance. Strategic
Management Review, 38 (Spring 1996). Management Journal 28/13 (2007), pp. 1319-1350.
iii vii
A. Schoemaker, P.J.H. and Philip Tetlock, Govindarajan, Vijay, M. B. A. Vijay
“Taboo Scenarios: How to Think about the Govindarajan, and Chris Trimble. Ten rules for
Unthinkable” California Management Review, strategic innovators: From idea to execution.
Winter 2012, Vol. 54, No 2, pp. 5-24. Harvard Business Press, 2005.
iv viii
For a similar conceptualization, see IC MacMillan This description of the Novartis digital initiative
and R Gunther McGrath “Crafting R&D Project drew from case IMD-32437 by D. A. Marchand and
Portfolios” Research Technology Management P. Bochukova, “Digital Transformation at Novartis
(September – October 2002) 48-59. Real options to Improve Customer Engagement” (Lausanne,
principles are integral to the concept of super Switzerland, January 1, 2014) as well as “From
flexibility – including developing a valuable Monologue to Dialogue: Fostering Meaningful
portfolio of initiatives, and executing through Engagement with the Medical Community”
experimenting, prototyping and iterating. See H. Novartis AG, 2015m and S. Bennett “From Snitch
Bahrami and S. Evans, “Super-Flexibility for Real-
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ix
Our 2000 book Wharton on Managing Emerging H. Bahrami, “The Emerging Flexible
xvi
Technologies provides various organizational and Organization: Perspectives from Silicon Valley,”
California Management Review, 34 (4), Summer
strategic insights about why managing new
1992, 33-52 or K. Eisenhardt and S. Brown,
technologies is often a different game for Competing on the Edge: Strategy as Structured
incumbents. This edited volume examines the Chaos, Harvard Business School Press, 1998.
major functions of business in light of new
xvii
technologies, across a range of industries, and
explains in part why this new game is so hard for http://www.economist.com/news/business/2160591
firms and leaders to master. 6-it-has-taken-ges-boss-jeffrey-immelt-13-years-
escape-legacy-his-predecessor-jack.
xviii
x
“Green technologies” are science-based Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. Antifragile: Things
applications that aim to conserve the natural that gain from disorder. Vol. 3. Random House
environment and resources by minimizing waste Incorporated, 2012.
and toxicity, conserving energy and reducing
xix
A.K. Dixit R.S. Pindyck, “The Options
pollution and carbon emissions: GS Day and PJH Approach to Capital Investment,” Harvard
Schoemaker, “Managing Uncertainty: Ten Lessons Business Review, May-June 1995, 105-15; I.C.
for Green Technologies,” MIT Sloan Management MacMillan and R. Gunther McGrath, “Crafting
Review, (September 2011), 53-60. R&D Project Portfolios,” Research Technology
Management, September-October 2002, 48-59.
xi
Among the sources we consulted were: R. Rapier xx
“A Look at DuPont’s” Work on Cellulistic Ethanol T. Kelley, The Art of Innovation, New York:
and Butonaol, www.energytrendinsider.com (April Doubleday, 2001 and G.S. Lynn, J.G. Morone, and
14, 2014). A. Paulson, “Marketing Discontinuous Innovation:
The Probe-and-Learn Process” California
xii
Truman, Semans & de Fontaine. “Innovating Management Review, 38 (Spring 1996).
through Alliance: A Case Study of the DuPont-BP xxi
Partnership on Biofuels.” Pew Center on Global A. Schoemaker, P.J.H. and Philip Tetlock,
Climate Change. September 2009. “Taboo Scenarios: How to Think about the
http://www.c2es.org/publications/dupont-bp- Unthinkable” California Management Review,
partnership-on-biofuels-sept-2009 Winter 2012, Vol. 54, No 2, pp. 5-24.
xxii
xiii
Dupont Applied Biosciences FactSheet. May 11, Para conceitos similares, veja IC MacMillan and
2010. R Gunther McGrath “Crafting R&D Project
http://www2.dupont.com/Media_Center/en_US/ass Portfolios” Research Technology Management
ets/downloads/pdf/FactSheet_IR_ABS.pdf (September – October 2002) 48-59. Os princípios
de opções reais são parte integrante do conceito de
xiv
Bringing biofuels to market has proved to be super flexibilidade - incluindo o desenvolvimento
slower and more costly than expected and a recent de um valioso portfólio de iniciativas e a execução,
report sounded a pessimistic note, “What Happened por meio de experimentos, protótipos e iterações.
to Biofuels?” Economist (September 7, 2013). Veja H. Bahrami and S. Evans, “Super-Flexibility
for Real-Time Adaptation: Perspective from Silicon
xv Valley,” California Management Review, 53/3
Contingency theories were developed in the
(Spring 2011) 21-39.
strategic management literature to show how the
effectiveness of various management practices,
techniques and capabilities will vary according to D.J. Teece, G. Pisano, & A. Shuen, “Dynamic
xxiv
the circumstances. See for example, E. Daneels, capabilities and strategic management.” Strategic
“The Dynamics of Product Innovations and Firm Management Journal, 18/(7) 1997, pp. 509-533;
Competences,” Strategic Management Journal, 23 see also D.J. Teece, Explicating dynamic
(2002), 1095-1121; E. Daneels, “Trying to Become capabilities: the nature and micro-foundations of
a Different Type of Company: Dynamic Capability (sustainable) enterprise performance. Strategic
at Smith Corona,” Strategic Management Journal, Management Journal 28/13 (2007), pp. 1319-1350.
32/1 (2011), 1-31, and M. Tripsas and G. Goretti,
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São Paulo, Brazil. Special Issue v.17n.5. October 2018
Ações Estratégicas diante da Incerteza
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http://www.c2es.org/publications/dupont-bp-
xxv
Govindarajan, Vijay, M. B. A. Vijay partnership-on-biofuels-sept-2009
Govindarajan, and Chris Trimble. Ten rules for
xxxi
strategic innovators: From idea to execution. Dupont Applied Biosciences FactSheet. May
Harvard Business Press, 2005. 11, 2010.
http://www2.dupont.com/Media_Center/en_US/ass
xxvi
A descrição da iniciativa digital do caso Novatis ets/downloads/pdf/FactSheet_IR_ABS.pdf
foi retirado de IMD-32437 por D. A. Marchand and
P. Bochukova, “Digital Transformation at Novartis Levar biocombustíveis para o mercado provou ser
to Improve Customer Engagement” (Lausanne, mais lento e mais caro do que o esperado e um
Switzerland, January 1, 2014) e também de “From relatório recente revelou uma nota pessimista
Monologue to Dialogue: Fostering Meaningful “What Happened to Biofuels?” Economist
Engagement with the Medical Community” (September 7, 2013).
Novartis AG, 2015m and S. Bennett “From Snitch
Pill to Xbox sensors, Novartis goes Digital” xxxiii
Teorias de contingência foram desenvolvidas
Bloomberg.com (March 24, 2015). na literatura de gestão estratégica para mostrar
como a eficácia de várias práticas de gestão,
xxvii técnicas e capacidades variará de acordo com as
Nosso livro de 2000, Wharton on Managing
Emerging Technologies, fornece vários insights circunstâncias. Veja, por exemplo, E. Daneels,
organizacionais e estratégicos sobre o motivo pelo “The Dynamics of Product Innovations and Firm
Competences,” Strategic Management Journal, 23
qual o gerenciamento de novas tecnologias é,
(2002), 1095-1121; E. Daneels, “Trying to Become
muitas vezes, um jogo diferente. Este volume a Different Type of Company: Dynamic Capability
editado examina as principais funções dos negócios at Smith Corona,” Strategic Management Journal,
à luz das novas tecnologias, em vários setores, e 32/1 (2011), 1-31, and M. Tripsas and G. Goretti,
explica, em parte, porque esse novo jogo é tão “Capabilities, Cognition and Inertia: Evidence from
difícil para as empresas e os líderes dominarem. Digital Imaging,” Strategic Management Journal,
21/10, 1147-1161.
na ciência, que visam conservar o meio ambiente Organization: Perspectives from Silicon Valley,”
natural e os recursos, minimizando o desperdício e California Management Review, 34 (4), Summer
a toxicidade, conservando energia e reduzindo a 1992, 33-52 or K. Eisenhardt and S. Brown,
poluição e as emissões de carbono: GS Day and Competing on the Edge: Strategy as Structured
PJH Schoemaker, “Managing Uncertainty: Ten Chaos, Harvard Business School Press, 1998.
Lessons for Green Technologies,” MIT Sloan
xxxv
Management Review, (September 2011), 53-60.
http://www.economist.com/news/business/2160591
xxix
Entre as fontes, consultamos: R. Rapier “A Look 6-it-has-taken-ges-boss-jeffrey-immelt-13-years-
at DuPont’s” Work on Cellulistic Ethanol and escape-legacy-his-predecessor-jack.
Butonaol, www.energytrendinsider.com (April 14,
xxxvi
2014). Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. Antifragile: Things
that gain from disorder. Vol. 3. Random House
xxx
Truman, Semans & de Fontaine. “Innovating Incorporated, 2012.
through Alliance: A Case Study of the DuPont-BP
Partnership on Biofuels.” Pew Center on Global
Climate Change. September 2009.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Brazilian Journal of Marketing - BJMkt
SCHOEMAKER/ DAY
729 Revista Brasileira de Marketing – ReMark
São Paulo, Brazil. Special Issue v.17n.5. October 2018