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1) The chapter examines the drivers of bilateral trade balances and the effects of tariffs on productivity, output, and employment.
2) It finds that macroeconomic factors, rather than bilateral tariffs, have played a larger role in explaining changes in bilateral trade balances over the past two decades. However, other policy distortions may have also affected balances.
3) Declining tariffs have lifted productivity by allowing for greater international specialization and participation in global supply chains. However, a sharp increase in tariffs could create significant negative spillovers globally.
1) The chapter examines the drivers of bilateral trade balances and the effects of tariffs on productivity, output, and employment.
2) It finds that macroeconomic factors, rather than bila…