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Assessing and Presenting

Experimental Data
Common Types of error
Uncertainty and Precision
Uncertainty
Theory Based on the Population
Theory Based on the Sample
Introduction

How good are the data?

• Actual data
• Error
– The difference between the measured value
and the true physical value
Error in Measuring
• Error : the difference between the
measured value and the true value
Error = ε ≡ xm − xtrue

• bound (ε) ; uncertainty (u)


− u ≤ ε ≤ +u (n : 1)

x m − u ≤ xtrue ≤ xm + u (n : 1)
Common Types of Error
• Bias errors : systematic errors
– The same way each time a measurement is
made
– Example: the scale on an instrument
• Precision errors : random errors
– Different for each successive measurement
but have an average value of zero
– Example: mechanical friction or vibration
Bias and Precision errors
• Bias errors > Precision errors
Frequency of occurrence

Bias error

Total error

Precision error

xtrue Measured value, xm xm


Bias and Precision errors
• Bias errors < Precision errors
Frequency of occurrence

Bias error Precision error

Total error

xtrue xm
Measured value, xm
Classification of Errors
1) Bias or systematic error
a. Calibration errors
b. Certain consistently recurring human errors
c. Certain errors caused by defective equipment
d. Loading errors
e. Limitations of system resolution
2) Precision or random error
a. Certain human errors
b. Errors caused by disturbances to th equipment
c. Errors caused by fluctuating experimental
conditions
d. Errors derived from insufficient measuring-system
sensitivity
Classification of Errors
3) Illegitimate error
a. Blunders and mistakes during an experiment
b. Computational errors after an experiment
4) Errors that are sometimes bias error and
sometimes precision error
a. From instrument backlash, friction, and hysteresis
b. From calibration drift and variation in test or
environmental conditions
c. Resulting from variations procedure or definition
among experimental
Elements of instrument error
• Hysteresis error
Elements of instrument error
• Linearity error
Elements of instrument error
• Sensitivity error
Elements of instrument error
• Zero shift(null) error
Elements of instrument error
• Repeatability error
Calibration errors
• Ideal response : xmeasured=xtrue
• Actual response : xmeasured=βxtrue +xoffset
Output, xmeasured
Actual response

β≠1
1 Ideal response
1
1
xoffset
Input, xtrue
hysteresis error
• Backlash and mechanical friction

Output, xmeasured Ideal response

Actual response

Input, xtrue
In Rating Instrument
Performance
• Accuracy
– The difference between the measured and
true values
– Maximum error as the accuracy
– The extent to which a reading might be wrong,
and is often quoted as a percentage of the
full-scale reading of an instrument
• For example: ±1% of full-scale reading
• Accuracy:
 true value − indicated value 
A = 1 −  ×100

 true value 
In Rating Instrument
Performance
• Precision
– The difference between the instrument’s
reported values during repeated
measurements of the same quantity
– Determined by statistical analysis
– A term which describes an instrument’s
degree of freedom from random errors
In Rating Instrument
Performance
• Precision
In Rating Instrument
Performance
• Accuracy & Precision

low accuracy ; low precision high accuracy ; low precision

low accuracy ; high precision high accuracy ; high precision


In Rating Instrument
Performance
• Resolution
– The smallest increment of change in the
measured value that can be determined from
the instrument’s readout scale
– Same (or smaller) order as the precision
• Sometimes specified as an absolute value and
sometimes as a percentage of full-scale deflection
In Rating Instrument
Performance
• Sensitivity
– The change of an instrument or transducer’s
output per unit change in the measured
quantity
– Higher sensitivity will also have finer
resolution, better precision, and higher
accuracy
• The sensitivity of measurement is therefore the
slope of the straight line in measured quantity v.s.
output reading characteristic chart
In Rating Instrument
Performance
• Sensitivity

Output
reading

Gradient=
Sensitivity of Measurement

Measured quantity
In Rating Instrument
Performance
• Sensitivity to disturbance Zero
drift
Scale Characteristic
reading with zero drift

Nominal characteristic

Measured quantity
In Rating Instrument
Performance
• Sensitivity to disturbance Sensitivity
drift
Scale Characteristic
reading with sensitivity drift

Nominal characteristic

Measured quantity
In Rating Instrument
Performance
• Sensitivity to disturbance Zero drift plus
Sensitivity drift
Characteristic with
Scale zero and sensitivity drift
reading

Nominal characteristic

Measured quantity
Precision error and accuracy
In Rating Instrument
Performance
• Hysteresis
– The non-coincidence between these loading
and unloading curves
In Rating Instrument
Performance
• Dead space
– As the rang of different input values over
which there is no change in output value
+ Output
reading

- + Measured
variable

Dead space
-
In Rating Instrument
Performance
• Range or span
– An instrument defines the minimum and
maximum values of a quantity that the
instrument is designed to measure
• Input span: Rinput=xmax-xmin

• Output span: Routput=ymax-ymin


In Rating Instrument
Performance
• Threshold
– If the input to an instrument is gradually from
zero, the input will have to reach a certain
minimum level before the change in the
instrument output reading is of a large enough
magnitude to be detectable. This minimum
level of input is known as threshold for
instrument.
Uncertainty
• Bias uncertainty, Bx
• precision uncertainty, Px

• Total uncertainty, Ux
2 2
U x = ( Bx + Px )
Uncertainty example
A brass rod axial strain, yielding an average strain of ε=520
µ-strain(520 ppm). A precision uncertainty Pε=21 µ-strain
with 95% confidence. The bias uncertainty is estimated to
be Bε=29 µ-strain with odds of 19:1 (95% confidence). What
is the total uncertainty of the strain ?

Solution.
The total uncertainty for 95% coverage is
Uε=(Bε2+Pε2 ) 1/2 =36 µ-strain (95%)
In other word, with odds of 19:1 , the true strain lies
in the interval 520 ± 36 µ-strain:
484 µ-strain ≤ ε ≥ 556 µ-strain.
Sample versus Population
• Sample
• population
Sample versus Population

群體(population)
(所製造的所有品目)

x1 x2 xn
樣本(sample)由母體取出之樣本
Probability Distributions
• Probability is an expression of the likelihood of
a particular event taking place, measured eith
reference to all possible events.
Probability Distributions
• The Gaussian, or normal, probability distribution
– Z-distribution
• Student’s t-distribution
– Only a small sample of data is available
• The x2-distribution
– in predicting the width of a population’s distribution, in
comparing the uniformity of samples, and in checking
the goodness of fit for assumed distributions
Theory Based on the population
• Normal distribution curve
Theory Based on the population
• probability density function, (PDF)
x2
Probability (x1 → x2 ) = ∫ f ( x)dx
x1

• Gaussian probability density function


1  (x − µ)  2
f ( x) = exp − 
σ 2π  2σ 
2

x= the magnitude of a particular measurement


µ= the mean value of the entire population
σ= the standard deviation of the entire population
Theory Based on the population
• the arithmetic average
x1 + x2 + ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ + xn n
xi
x= =∑
n i =1 n

• the deviation d = x - µ
µ : The most probable single value for the quantity

• the standard deviation


2 2 2
d1 + d 2 + ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ + d n
σ≈
n
Standard normal distribution
curve
Example
a.What is the area under the curve between z=-1.43
and z=1.43 ?
b.What is the significance of this area ?
Solution.
a. From Table 3.2, read 0.4236. This represent half
the area sought. Therefore,
the total area is 2×0.4236=0.8472.
b. The significance is that for data following the
normal distribution, 84.72% of the population
lies within the range –1.43 < z < 1.43.
Example
What range x will contain 90% of the data ?
Solution.
We need to find z such that 90%/2=45% of the
data lie between zero and +z; the other 45% will
lie between –z and zero. Entering Table 3.2, we
find z0.45≈1.645 (by interpolation). Hence, since
z=(x-µ)/σ, 90% of the population should fall
within the range
(µ- z0.45) < x < (µ+ z0.45)
or
(µ- 1.645) < x < (µ+1.645)
Theorey Based on the Sample
• We deal with samples from a population
and not the population itself
– to use average values from the sample to
estimate the mean or standard deviation of
the population
• the sample mean
n
xi x1 + x2 + ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ + xn
x=∑ =
i =1 n n
Theorey Based on the Sample
• the sample standard deviation
( x1 − x ) 2 + ( x 2 − x ) 2 + ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ + ( x n − x ) 2
sx =
n −1
( ∑ i =1 x i ) − n x
n 2 2

=
n −1

• Difference between populationFor


For population
and sample
sample
Mean µ or µx x
Standard σ or σx Sx
Deviation
An Example of Sampling
Results of a 12-hour pressure test
Pressure p, in Mpa Number of results, m
3.970 1
3.980 3
3.990 12
4.000 25
4.010 33
4.020 17
4.030 6
4.040 2
4.050 1
Solution
• Histogram of the pressure data
Solution
• Sample
Pressure mean and
Number of standard
Deviation deviation
p results d d2
3.970 1 -0.038 144.4×10-5
3.980 3 -0.028 78.4×10-5
3.990 12 -0.018 32.4×10-5
4.000 25 -0.008 6.4×10-5
4.010 33 0.002 0.4×10-5
4.020 17 0.012 14.4×10-5
4.030 6 0.022 48.4×10-5
4.040 2 0.032 102.4×10-5
4.050 1 0.042 176.4×10-5
Solution
• Sample mean and standard deviation
∑ p = 400.77 n = ∑ m = 100
∑ d = 1858 ×10
2 −5

p = 400.77 / 100 = 4.008 Mpa


−5
S p = 1858 × 10 / 99 = 0.014 Mpa
Goodness of Fit
• A given set of data may or may not abide
by the assumed distribution and since, at
best, the degree of adherence can be only
approximate, some estimate of goodness
of fit should be made before critical
decisions are based on statistical error
calculations.
Goodness of Fit
• Normal probability plot
Goodness of Fit
• Graphical effects
Propagation of Uncertainty
• What is that uncertainty?
– Finding the uncertainty in a result due to
uncertainties in the independent variables is
called finding the propagation of uncertainty.
A linear function y of several independent variables
xi with standard deviations σi;
The standard deviation of y is
2 2 2
 ∂y   ∂y   ∂y 
σ y =  σ 1  +  σ 2  + ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ +  σ n 
 ∂x1   ∂x2   ∂xn 
Propagation of Uncertainty
We assume that each uncertainty is small
enough that a first-order Taylor expansion
of y(x1,x2,…,x3) provides a reasonable
approximation:

y(x1 + u1 , x2 + u2 , ..., xn + un )
∂y ∂y ∂y
≈ y(x1 , x2 , ..., xn ) + u1 + u2 + ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ + un
∂x1 ∂x2 ∂xn
Propagation of Uncertainty
Under this approximation, y is linear
function of the independent variable.

The uncertainties are:


2 2 2
 ∂y   ∂y   ∂y 
uy =  u1  +  u2  + ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ +  un 
 ∂x1   ∂x2   ∂xn 
Uncertainty example
Suppose that y has the form
y=Ax1+Bx2
and that the uncertainties in x1 and x2 are known
with odds of n:1. What is the uncertainty in y?

Solution.
∂y ∂y
= A ; =B
∂ x1 ∂x2
Using above Eq.,
uy = ( Au 1 ) 2 + ( Bu 2 ) 2 (n : 1).
Uncertainty example
例:兩個電阻值為100Ω之電阻,每個電阻值之公差(不
確定度)為 5% 。試求將兩電阻串聯後之總電阻值及其
電阻不確定度為何?

Solution.
一般串聯總電阻為 R = R 1 + R 2 = 200 Ω
每個電阻之不確定度為 100 × 5% = 5 Ω
2 2
 ∂R   ∂R 
總共不確定度為 u y =  u1  +  u 2 
 ∂R 1   ∂R 2 
= (1 × 5 )2 + (1 × 5 )2 = 7 .07 Ω
串聯總電阻為 200 Ω ± 7 .07 Ω
Uncertainty example
A cylindrical body of circular section has a normal length
of 5000 ± 0.5mm, an outside diameter of 200 ± 0.05mm.
Determine the uncertainty in calculated volume.

Solution.
π π
V = d 2l ; v = 200 2 × 5000 = 1 . 57 × 10 8 mm 3
4 4
ul 0.5 u 0.05
= = 0 . 0 1% ; d = = 0.0025%
l 5000 d 200
Using above Eq.,
uv u u
= ( 2 d ) 2 + ( l ) 2 = ( 2 × 0 . 0025 %) 2 + ( 0 . 01 %) 2 = 1 . 12 × 10 − 2 %
v d l
or u v = 1 . 57 × 10 8 × 1 . 12 × 10 − 2 % ≈ 1 . 76 × 10 4
The uncertaint y of the volume is u v = 1 . 76 × 10 4 mm 3 , or about ± 1.12 × 10 − 2 %
Graphical Presentation of Data
• When used to present facts, interpretations of
facts, or theoretical relationships, a graph
usually serves to communicate knowledge from
the author to his readers, and to help them
visualize the features that he considers
important.
• A graph should be used when it will convey
information and portray significant features more
efficiently than words or tabulations.
According to the American Standards Association
Graphical Presentation of Data
• For example: atmospheric pressure
– The data are tabled
Time of Day Pressure (mbar)

10:00 A.M. 1009.0


11:30 984.2
01:00 P.M. 999.8
02:15 989.0
03:40 977.1
04:40 981.2
05:40 990.0
Graphical Presentation of Data
• For example: atmospheric pressure
– The data are graphed
General Rules for Making
graphs
• For example: a temperature data
General Rules for Making
graphs
• Minimum effort in understanding
• The axes should have clear labels
• Use scientific notation
• Use real logarithmic axes
• The axes should usually include zero
• The scales should be commensurate with the
relative importance of the variations
• Use symbols for data points
Other rules see textbook pp.101~103
General Rules for Making
graphs
• A pool graph
General Rules for Making
graphs
• improved by graphing guidelines
Choosing Coordinates
• Linear coordinates
Choosing Coordinates
• Semi-logarithmic coordinates
Choosing Coordinates
• Semi-logarithmic coordinates
Choosing Coordinates
• Full logarithmic coordinates
Choosing Coordinates
• Full logarithmic coordinates
Choosing Coordinates
• Polar coordinates
Choosing Coordinates
• Polar coordinates
Choosing Coordinates
• Polar coordinates
Producing Straight Lines
• For example: cooling data
By linear coordinates
Producing Straight Lines
• For example: cooling data
By semi-logarithmic coordinates
Producing Straight Lines
• For example: plot of y=1.0 + (2.5/x)

As y versus x
Producing Straight Lines
• For example: plot of y=1.0 + (2.5/x)
As y versus (1/x)
Straight-line Transformations
• y=f(x) ⇒ Y=A+BX
F(x) Y X A B
y=a+b/x y 1/x a b
y=1/(a+bx) 1/y x a b
y=x/(a+bx) X/y x a b
y=abx log y x log a log b
y=acbx log y x log a b log c
y=axb log y log x log a b
y=a+bxn y xn a b
Line Fitting
• The simplest approach is just to draw
appears to be a good straight line through
the data
• When this approach is used, the probable
tendency is to draw a line that minimizes
the total deviation of all points from the line
Bias and precision error in line
fitting
Least Square for Line Fits
• y=a + bx
∑ yi ∑ xi − ∑ xi ∑ xi yi
2
n∑ xi yi − ∑ xi ∑ yi
a= b=
n∑ xi − (∑ xi ) n∑ xi − (∑ xi ) 2
2 2 2

• Correlation coefficient, r
(
∑ i m
y ( x ) − y )2 the squared deviations
r2 = 2
S + ∑ ( y ( xi ) − ym )
2 n 2

S 2 = ∑ [ yi − y ( xi )]
i =1
Least Square for Line Fits
Example
A cantilever beam deflects downword when a mass is attached
to its free end. T deflection, δ(m), is a function of the beam
stiffness, k(N/m), the applied mass, M(kg), and the
gravitational body force, g=9.807m/s : k δ=Mg
To determine the stiffness of a small cantilevered steel beam, a
student place various masses on the end of the beam and
measures the corresponding deflections. The deflections are
measured using a scale (a ruler) marked in 1mm increments.
Each mass is measured in a balance. His results are as follow:
Mass(g) 0 050. 099. 150. 200. 250. 299. 350. 401.
15 90 05 05 20 95 05 00
Deflection(mm) 0 0.6 1.8 3.0 3.6 4.8 6.0 6.2 7.5
Least Square for Line Fits
Solution :
Example
Setting y=δ and x=M

n=9 ; Σx=1801g ; Σx2=5.109×105 g2 ; Σy=33.50mm ;


Σy2=179.3mm2 ; Σxy=9959g·mm ;

The least squares results are then


y = a + bx [or δ= a + (g/k)M ] ;
a= -0.0755mm ; b=g/k= 0.0190 mm/g ; r= 0.995886 ;

The experimental stiffness of the beam is


k= g/b = 9.807/0.0190 = 516 N/m
Least Square for Line Fits
Example
Beam deflection for various masses
Least Square for Line Fits
Solution :
Example
From the figure, these data do appear to fall on a straight line.
The correlation coefficient, r, is nearly unity, but a better test
is to consider (1-r2) 1/2 = 0.0906 ≈ 9%. This value indicates
that the vertical standard deviation of the data is only about
9% of the total vertical variation caused by the straight-line
relationship between y and x.
Least Square for Line Fits
Example
For the following data, determine the equation for y=y(x) by
graphical analysis.
x 0 0.43 0.76 1.21 2.60 3.5
y 1.00 1.54 3.61 5.25 10.0 13.50
Solution :
∑ yi ∑ xi − ∑ xi ∑ xi yi
2
n ∑ xi y i − ∑ xi ∑ y i
a= = 0.645 b= = 3.6506
n∑ xi − (∑ xi ) n ∑ x i − ( ∑ xi )
2 2 2 2

(
∑ i m
y ( x ) − y )2

r2 = 2 ; r = 1.00
S + ∑ ( y ( xi ) − ym )
2

y= 0.645 + 3.6506 x r =1.00


Least Square for Line Fits
Solution :
Example

15

y 10

0 1 2 3 4
x