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GICS Sector Materials Summary ABX is the one of the world's largest gold companies in terms of both production
Sub-Industry Gold and reserves.
Key Stock Statistics (Source S&P Capital IQ, Vickers, company reports)
52-Wk Range $23.47– 6.04 S&P Oper. EPS 2016E 0.75 Market Capitalization(B) $21.104 Beta 0.01
Trailing 12-Month EPS $-2.43 S&P Oper. EPS 2017E 1.00 Yield (%) 0.44 S&P 3-Yr. Proj. EPS CAGR(%) 45
Trailing 12-Month P/E NM P/E on S&P Oper. EPS 2016E 24.1 Dividend Rate/Share $0.08 S&P Quality Ranking B-
$10K Invested 5 Yrs Ago $4,202 Common Shares Outstg. (M) 1,165.3 Institutional Ownership (%) 60
Revenue/Earnings Data
Revenue (Million $)
Volume(Mil.)
120
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Year
80 2016 1,930 2,012 -- -- --
40 2015 2,245 2,231 2,315 2,238 9,029
0
5 5 2014 2,632 2,432 2,598 2,577 10,239
5 4 4
3 2013 3,437 3,201 2,985 2,926 12,511
1 2012 3,644 3,278 3,436 4,189 14,547
OND J FMAM J J A SOND J FMAM J J A SOND J FMAM J J A SOND J FMAM J J A SOND J FMAM J J A SON 2011 3,090 3,426 4,007 3,789 14,312
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Earnings Per Share ($)
Past performance is not an indication of future performance and should not be relied upon as such.
2016 -0.07 0.12 E0.25 E0.25 E0.75
Analysis prepared by Equity Analyst M. Miller, CFA on Jul 28, 2016 10:14 PM, when the stock traded at $21.27. 2015 0.05 -0.01 -0.23 -2.25 -2.44
Highlights Investment Rationale/Risk 2014 0.08 -0.23 0.11 -2.47 -2.50
2013 0.85 -8.04 0.18 -2.61 -9.65
➤ Sales are expected to decline around 8% in ➤ We have a favorable view on ABX's decision to 2012 1.03 0.75 0.62 -3.06 -0.66
2016, after declines of 18% in 2014 and 12% in prioritize cash flow and profitable production. 2011 1.00 1.16 1.36 0.96 4.48
2015. Our forecast reflects our expectation for We think its efforts to reduce costs will have a Fiscal year ended Dec. 31. Next earnings report expected: Late
respective declines in gold and copper produc- positive effect on earnings. ABX is focused on October. EPS Estimates based on S&P Capital IQ Operating
Earnings; historical GAAP earnings are as reported in Company
tion volumes, due to divestitures. These divesti- improving its balance sheet, and has committed reports.
tures helped ABX achieve a $3.1 billion reduc- to reducing total debt by $2 billion in 2016, fol-
tion in debt during 2015. Aggressive debt reduc- lowing the more than $3 billion decrease in Dividend Data
tion has been a priority with management, and 2015. ABX has few major debt maturities
Amount Date Ex-Div. Stk. of Payment
we expect another $2 billion debt reduction in through 2021, which we see as a positive at a ($) Decl. Date Record Date
2016 from cash flow and asset sales. time of gold price uncertainty. Management 0.020 Oct 28 Nov 25 Nov 30 Dec 15 '15
➤ EBITDA totaled $3.25 billion in 2015, $3.89 billion has positioned the company to be cash flow 0.020 Feb 17 Feb 25 Feb 29 Mar 15 '16
in 2014 and $5.60 billion in 2013, with corre- positive at gold prices as low as $1,000 per 0.020 Apr 26 May 26 May 31 Jun 15 '16
sponding EBITDA margins of 36%, 38% and ounce, a break-even price that should fall each 0.020 Jul 27 Aug 29 Aug 31 Sep 15 '16
45%. We forecast 2016 EBITDA margins to ex- year as AISC falls. Dividends have been paid since 1987. Source: Company reports.
pand by over 1,000 basis points to 47%, driven ➤ Risks to our recommendation and target price Past performance is not an indication of future performance and
by ABX's focus on cost control efforts to help include weaker gold prices, failure to achieve should not be relied upon as such.
offset the effects of lower production. All-in expected gold and copper production and an
sustaining costs (AISC) are forecast to progres- inability to monetize assets to improve its lever-
sively decline each year until they are under age ratios.
$700 per ounce by 2019. ➤ Our 12-month target price of $25 represents an
➤ Our 2016 EPS estimate is $0.75 and $1.00 in enterprise value to our 2017 EBITDA estimate of
2017. In the event of a lower gold price environ- 8.0X, a 13% discount to peers trading at 9.2X
ment, ABX should remain competitive due to forward earnings. We think ABX should trade at
lower-cost gold mines. ABX posted positive FCF a small discount to peers given higher financial
in 2015 (the first year since 2011), and we ex- leverage, partially offset by its low-cost mining
pect strong FCF growth going forward. assets.
Please read the Required Disclosures and Analyst Certification on the last page of this report.
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Unless otherwise indicated, there is no intention to update this document.
Stock Report | September 24, 2016 | NYS Symbol: ABX
CORPORATE OVERVIEW. Barrick Gold is one of the world's largest gold companies. The Company has op- Investor Contact
erating mines or projects in Canada, the United States, the Dominican Republic, Peru, Chile, Argentina, A. Parr (416-307-7426)
Tanzania, Zambia, Australia, Papua New Guinea and Saudi Arabia.
The Company's principal products and sources of earnings are gold and copper. As of December 31, 2015, Office
ABX's proven and probable reserves totaled 92 million oz. (assumption of $1,000 per oz. short-term and Brookfield Place, Toronto, ON, Canada M5J 2S1.
$1,200 from 2021 onward) with an average reserve grade of 1.32 grams per metric ton, versus 93 million oz.
($1,100/oz gold price assumption) at the end of 2014 and versus 104.1 million oz. ($1,100/oz) at the end of Telephone
2013. Approximately 3.1 million oz. were divested and 6.8 million oz. were depleted through production and 416-861-9911.
processing during 2015. ABX added about 5.1 million oz. to reserves through drilling and cost improve-
Fax
ments and another 3.7 million oz. were added as a result of using a long-term gold price assumption of
416-861-2492.
$1,200 per oz., compared to a single reserve price of $1,100 applied in 2014. Copper proven and probable
reserves at year-end 2015 totaled 11.7 billion lbs. versus 14.9 billion lbs. at year-end 2014, a decrease Email
driven primarily by the sale of 50% of Zaldivar. investor@barrick.com
During 2015, ABX produced 6.117 million oz. (6.249 in 2014) at an average cash cost of $596 per oz. ($598)
Website
and 511 million pounds of copper (436) at a cash cost of $1.73 per pound ($1.92). ABX's goal is to bring
www.barrick.com
down all-in sustaining costs to below $700 per ounce by the end of 2019 (from $831 in 2015 and $864 in
2014).
Officers
CORPORATE STRATEGY. Barrick's main strategy is to increase its reserve base through the development
or acquisition of low-cost, long-life mines. ABX says it is committed to assessing all capital allocation op-
Chrmn EVP & CFO
tions, which include exploration and project investment and acquisitions or divestitures, on the basis of
J.L. Thornton C. Raw
maximizing risk-adjusted returns. It emphasizes free cash flow, hoping to position ABX to return more cap-
ital to shareholders, repay debt, and make additional attractive return investments in the future. ABX seeks CEO CTO
to optimize its overall returns and existing assets that do not generate target returns or long-term free K.P. Dushnisky B. Maree
cash flow will be deferred, suspended or divested.
MARKET PROFILE. Gold mining is a highly capital-intensive business, requiring large sums of money to ex- COO
R.J. Williams
plore for deposits and construct mines once deposits have been discovered. Since the early part of this
century, mining costs have increased dramatically due to rapidly rising costs for energy and building mate-
rials.
Board Members
Global gold production is dominated by a relatively small number of large producers such as Anglogold G. A. Cisneros G. G. Clow
Ashanti Ltd., Gold Fields Limited, Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold, Harmony Gold, Newmont Mining, Rio G. A. Doer K. P. Dushnisky
Tinto, and Barrick. The industry is also comprised of a small number of exploration companies and small to J. M. Evans B. L. Greenspun
mid-size gold producers. Absent the discovery of a large deposit, we think few of the exploration and small J. B. Harvey N. H. Lockhart
to mid-size companies will become major producers. D. F. Moyo A. Munk
J. R. Prichard S. J. Shapiro
FINANCIAL TRENDS. As part of ABX's debt reduction strategy, ABX completed several divestitures in J. L. Thornton E. L. Thrasher
2015. Debt repayments made in 2015 totaled $3.1 billion, which exceeded the company's target. On January
11, 2016, ABX completed the sale of its Bald Mountain mine and its 50% interest in the Round Mountain
mine to Kinross Gold Corporation for cash consideration of $610 million. On December 17, 2015, ABX com- Domicile
pleted the sale its Ruby Hill mine and its 70% interest in the Spring Valley project to Waterton Precious Ontario
Metals Fund II Cayman, LP for cash consideration of $110 million. On December 1, 2015, ABX completed
the sale of 50% of its Zaldivar copper mine in Chile to Antofagasta Plc for total consideration of $1.005 bil- Founded
lion. On August 31, 2015, ABX completed the sale of 50% of its interest in the Porgera mine in Papua New 1984
Guinea to Zijin Mining Group Company for cash consideration of $298 million. On July 23, 2015, ABX com-
pleted the sale of its Cowal mine in Australia for cash consideration of $550 million. On September 29, 2015, Employees
ABX closed a gold and silver streaming transaction with Royal Gold, Inc. for production linked to Barrick's 21,135
60% interest in the Pueblo Viejo mine. Royal Gold made an upfront cash payment of $610 million and will
continue to make cash payments for gold and silver delivered under the agreement. Stockholders
16,768
Total revenue peaked in 2012 at $14.5 billion, then declined at a three-year compound annual growth rate
(CAGR) of 15% to $9.0 billion in 2015. During the same three-year period, EPS declined by a 57% CAGR.
For further clarification on the terms used in this report, please visit www.spcapitaliq.com/stockreportguide
Per Share Data ($) 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006
Tangible Book Value 4.75 4.73 6.33 12.54 13.16 13.66 9.96 11.37 10.74 9.57
Cash Flow -1.15 -1.13 -8.18 1.06 5.91 4.36 -3.65 2.05 2.41 2.27
Earnings -2.44 -2.50 -9.65 -0.66 4.48 3.16 -4.84 0.89 1.27 1.42
Dividends 0.14 0.20 0.50 0.75 0.51 0.44 0.40 0.40 0.30 0.22
Payout Ratio NM NM NM NM 11% 14% NM 45% 24% 15%
Prices:High 13.70 21.45 36.08 50.39 55.95 55.72 48.02 54.74 47.72 36.03
Prices:Low 5.91 10.04 13.43 31.00 42.50 33.65 25.54 17.27 26.94 25.10
P/E Ratio:High NM NM NM NM 12 18 NM 62 38 25
P/E Ratio:Low NM NM NM NM 9 11 NM 19 21 18
Data as originally reported in Company reports.; bef. results of disc opers/spec. items. Per share data adj. for stk. divs.; EPS diluted. E-Estimated. NA-Not Available. NM-Not Meaningful. NR-Not Ranked. UR-Under
Review.
% Change
annual decline for the first time since 1998, as the 5.5%, versus 9.6% CAGR for the S&P 1500, and a 30%
average price of gold fell 10.2% in 2014 to $1,266 per 4.0% CAGR in the S&P 1500 Materials Index.
once, following a 16% decline in 2013. The decline 10%
fears. The relative strength of the U.S. economy and 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
NA-Not Available NM-Not Meaningful NR-Not Rated. *For Peer Groups with more than 15 companies or stocks, selection of issues is based on market capitalization.
July 6, 2016
Barrick Gold Corporation announced the appointment of Daniel Oh as Senior Vice
President, Investor Engagement and Governance, effective July 18. Reporting to
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Catherine Raw, Mr. Oh will
lead Barrick's Investor Relations team, and will serve as a central point of
contact for investor engagement on governance. He will be responsible for
building enduring partnerships with both new and existing shareholders, with a
focus on heightened engagement and transparency, and will also advise
management and the Board of Directors on matters of corporate governance. Mr.
Oh has more than 16 years of experience in a diverse range of roles, covering
corporate governance, capital markets, accounting, investment valuation,
portfolio management, and business strategy. He joins Barrick from BlackRock
Inc., where he was Vice President, BlackRock Investment Stewardship. In this
role, Mr. Oh was responsible for advising BlackRock investment managers on the
corporate governance and sustainability practices of more than 1,300 companies
in the United States and Canada. Angela Parr, Vice President, Investor Relations,
will report to Mr. Oh. Michael Leonard, currently Director of Forecasting and
Performance Measurement at Barrick, will join the Investor Relations team as
Director, Investor Relations. Susan Muir, Vice President, Investor
Communications, is leaving the company to pursue other opportunities.
Monthly Average Trend Buy Buy/Hold Hold Weak Hold Sell No Opinion ABX Trend HOLD
B BH H WH S
-4 M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S
2015 2016
Fiscal Years Avg Est. High Est. Low Est. # of Est. Est. P/E
2017 0.77 1.19 0.44 28 23.5
2016 0.55 0.81 0.42 24 32.9
2017 vs. 2016 40% 47% 5% 17% -29%
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Buy 24.6% 17.8% 30.0% 23.7%
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Stock Report | September 24, 2016 | NYS Symbol: ABX
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Stock Report | September 24, 2016 | NYS Symbol: ABX
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