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(March 2017)
Pre-Feasibility Study Solar Systems Distribution
Table of Contents
1 DISCLAIMER .............................................................................................................................................. 1
2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................... 2
3 INTRODUCTION TO SMEDA ................................................................................................................. 3
4 PURPOSE OF THE DOCUMENT ............................................................................................................ 3
5 BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF PROJECT & PRODUCT ............................................................................ 4
5.1 PRODUCTION PROCESS FLOW ........................................................................................................................ 6
5.2 INSTALLED AND OPERATIONAL CAPACITIES ............................................................................................... 6
6 CRITICAL FACTORS ................................................................................................................................. 7
7 GEOGRAPHICAL POTENTIAL FOR INVESTMENT .......................................................................... 7
8 POTENTIAL TARGET CUSTOMERS..................................................................................................... 8
9 PROJECT COST SUMMARY .................................................................................................................... 9
9.1 PROJECT ECONOMICS ....................................................................................................................................... 9
9.2 PROJECT FINANCING ........................................................................................................................................ 9
9.3 PROJECT COST................................................................................................................................................ 10
9.4 SPACE REQUIREMENT................................................................................................................................... 10
9.5 FURNITURE & FIXTURES REQUIREMENT .................................................................................................. 11
9.6 OFFICE EQUIPMENT REQUIREMENT .......................................................................................................... 11
9.7 HUMAN RESOURCE REQUIREMENT ............................................................................................................ 12
9.8 UTILITIES AND OTHER COSTS ...................................................................................................................... 12
9.9 REVENUE GENERATION................................................................................................................................ 13
10 CONTACT DETAILS ............................................................................................................................... 14
10.1 MACHINERY SUPPLIERS ............................................................................................................................... 14
11 USEFUL WEB LINKS.............................................................................................................................. 15
12 ANNEXURES ............................................................................................................................................ 16
12.1 INCOME STATEMENT .................................................................................................................................... 16
12.2 BALANCE SHEET ............................................................................................................................................ 18
12.3 CASH FLOW STATEMENT ............................................................................................................................. 19
13 KEY ASSUMPTIONS .............................................................................................................................. 20
13.1 OPERATING COST ASSUMPTIONS ............................................................................................................... 20
13.2 PRODUCT COST ASSUMPTIONS ................................................................................................................... 20
13.3 REVENUE ASSUMPTIONS .............................................................................................................................. 20
13.4 FINANCIAL ASSUMPTIONS ........................................................................................................................... 20
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Pre-Feasibility Study Solar Systems Distribution
1 DISCLAIMER
Document Control
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2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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3 INTRODUCTION TO SMEDA
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Pakistan has always being in the grip of sustainable energy scarcity. There is an
ever increase in energy demand that cannot be fulfilled using the current resources.
Around the world, solar energy, particularly, is positioned to become a new source of
sustainable energy. The increased awareness towards environmental issues has
prompted a new shift towards low-carbon energy alternatives that has enabled new
investment in the alternate energy. Commercial manufacturing of the PV Systems
has served to decrease the cost of its components.
Pakistan, predominantly, requires alternate sources of energy to both deal with the
environmental challenges and the energy shortage. This pre-feasibility study
explores the opportunity that exists in the distribution business of Hybrid Photovoltaic
Systems, combination of both off-grid and grid-tied PV Systems, in Pakistan. Hybrid
Systems are more appealing to the Pakistani market because majority of the
households are connected to the grid but there is frequent load shedding. The Hybrid
System will enable the consumers to utilize both the solar energy as well as the
energy from the solar panels giving the consumers a 24-hour energy availability.
There is immense potential for the generation of solar energy in Pakistan that can be
utilized to deal with the energy crisis. The Photovoltaic systems will provide
consumers a clean and sustainable source of energy that will benefit them in both
the short and long term.
Following are the key parameters for the proposed distribution unit,
Technology:
Hybrid Photovoltaic System consists of two types of PV Systems combined
together. The first type is the Grid Tied PV System that is connected to the utility
power grid. There is no storage of energy and the electricity generated is spent in
real time. Grid-Tied System will only work in the presence of sunlight but it gives
the consumers a backup power from the utility grid. The System consists of Solar
Panels, Inverter, and Power Meter. The Power Meter is connected to the grid and
it measures the amount of electrical energy that is received from the grid and the
amount of excessive energy that is fed into the grid. Consumers can save money
with net metering which is the difference between the energy received from the
grid and the energy fed into the grid. In advanced countries, excessive energy is
sold to the company to whose grid the PV System is connected. This practice is
not yet feasible in Pakistan. The second type is the Off-Grid PV System which is
also called a stand-alone PV System. This type of PV System is not connected to
the grid and it requires a battery bank. The battery bank ensures the availability
of electricity even in the absence of sunlight. The life of a battery is typically 10
years. Off-Grid PV System consists of Solar Panels, Charge Controller, Power
Bank, Inverter and an optional backup Generator. The Hybrid Photovoltaic
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Pre-Feasibility Study Solar Systems Distribution
Location:
The Hybrid PV Systems distribution business is proposed to be located in an
area after taking into account three important factors: affordability, amount of
sunlight and electricity blackouts. PV Systems are expensive to begin with, and a
common consumer cannot afford to buy one. Therefore, it is important to setup
the business in an area where the consumers can afford to buy PV Systems. The
intensity of sunlight is also a crucial factor. Areas like Lahore and Multan receive
a lot more sunlight because of their geographical location. However, other
locations including Karachi also receive a good amount of sunlight. Electricity
blackouts, in many cases, are more common in one place than in another. For
example, electricity blackouts in Rawalpindi and Lahore are more frequent than in
Karachi and therefore Rawalpindi and Lahore can be more suitable locations for
the distribution setup based on the frequency of electricity blackouts. However,
based on the proposed target market for the distribution unit, affordability is the
biggest factor that needs to be taken into account. Therefore, big cities like
Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad, etc. are good locations for the PV Systems
distribution business.
Product:
The distribution unit would buy the Hybrid PV Systems from the importers which
would be distributed to the end consumers. Installation services would also be
provided by the proposed business unit.
Target Market:
The target market for the proposed business consists of three segments. The
proposed segments are household consumers, small to medium sized
businesses and organizations, and educational institutions located in urban
centres such as Karachi.
Employment Generation:
The distribution unit would generate both direct and indirect employment. Direct
employment would be provided to 14 people. These would include one person
who would look after the accounts and answer calls, two people who would deal
with purchasing and selling, one driver, and two people with technical skills who
would install the PV Systems for the consumers. The proposed distribution unit
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Purchase from
distributors/Importers
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Pre-Feasibility Study Solar Systems Distribution
6 CRITICAL FACTORS
The main critical success factors that affect the decision to invest in the proposed
business setup are:
Size of a PV system is determined by the available space for installation.
Correct orientation of panels increases total power output.
Optimal output is attained when the space for installation of panels is
unshaded.
For efficiency and durability, it is advised, the battery should not be used
below 50%.
Equally important factors,
Effective marketing plan for the business so that the potential customers could
be reached.
Good customer care is vital for creating positive image for business growth.
Services after sale is also crucial in creating good personal relationships with
customers.
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Pre-Feasibility Study Solar Systems Distribution
contenders to establish large solar farms with capacities of generating more than
250 Gigawatts electric power to meet energy shortfall over coming decades.
The PV system consumers are increasing in Pakistan as more people are shifting
from fuel generators to solar power for power needs. The potential customers are
segmented into following groups: Small Businesses and Organizations: Small
businesses operating in areas with disrupted electricity supply opt for solar power
systems for their electricity needs. Organizations including health facilities,
government offices and NGOs operating in remote rural areas with no grid power
access also install PV systems to meet their electricity needs. Such customers are
found both in rural as well as urban areas of Pakistan. Households: Household
consumers with adequate buying power prefer PV systems over power generators.
People from urban centers of Punjab and Sindh are especial target with huge
potential as these areas get maximum amount of sunlight. The affordability of such
consumers is also high as the PV systems cost quite high. However, individual
households may order PV systems from across the country. Educational Institutions:
Schools and colleges operating in rural areas with no grid power supply install PV
systems to meet their requirements.
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A detailed financial model has been developed to analyze the commercial viability of
this project. Various costs and revenue related assumptions along with results of the
analysis are outlined in this section.
All the figures in this financial model have been calculated for estimated sales of Rs.
89,214,372 in the year one. The revenue will increase in two ways: Number of
customers growth rate is projected to increase by 10% per year, while per customer
charges are expected to increase by 10% every year.
The following table shows internal rate of return, payback period and net present
value of the proposed venture:
Following table provides details of the equity required and variables related to bank
loan:
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Pre-Feasibility Study Solar Systems Distribution
Following fixed and working capital requirements have been identified for operations
of the proposed business. Working capital is estimated to be Rs. 16,863,525 to meet
the initial requirements of operating the business. The requirement is based on the
cost for four months of the items shown in the table below for working capital.
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Details of the furniture and fixture required for the project are given below:
Total 425,000
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Total 240,000
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Pre-Feasibility Study Solar Systems Distribution
Based on the projections for the first year, PV Systems of 36 kW ranging from 01 to
05 kW of household system are expected to be sold every month with a 10 %
increase in the number of customers each year. Sales revenue during the first year
of operations is estimated as under:
Total 89,214,372
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Pre-Feasibility Study Solar Systems Distribution
10 CONTACT DETAILS
Machinery Supplier -1
E-mail sales@nizamenergy.com
Website www.nizamsolar.com
Machinery Supplier -2
E-mail ali@solarpower.pk
Website www.paksolarpower.com
Machinery Supplier -3
E-mail contact@panteraenergy.pk
Website www.panteraenergy.pk
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12 ANNEXURES
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Calculations SMEDA
Income Statement
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
Revenue 89,214,372 109,313,147 120,277,872 132,305,659 145,536,225 160,089,848 176,098,832 193,708,716 213,079,587 234,387,546
Cost of sales
Cost of goods sold 1 68,626,440 82,558,181 89,187,610 96,322,618 104,028,428 112,350,702 121,338,758 131,045,859 141,529,528 152,851,890
Operation costs 1 (direct labor) 1,795,000 1,974,702 2,167,564 2,378,601 2,610,185 2,864,316 3,143,190 3,449,215 3,785,036 4,153,552
Total cost of sales 70,421,440 84,532,883 91,355,173 98,701,219 106,638,613 115,215,018 124,481,948 134,495,074 145,314,563 157,005,442
Gross Profit 18,792,932 24,780,264 28,922,699 33,604,440 38,897,613 44,874,830 51,616,884 59,213,641 67,765,024 77,382,104
Gross Profit Margin 21% 23% 24% 25% 27% 28% 29% 31% 32% 33%
General administration & selling expenses
Administration expense 3,144,000 3,450,104 3,786,011 4,154,623 4,559,123 5,003,005 5,490,105 6,024,629 6,611,196 7,254,871
Administration benefits expense 157,200 172,505 189,301 207,731 227,956 250,150 274,505 301,231 330,560 362,744
Building rental expense 1,404,000 1,544,400 1,698,840 1,868,724 2,055,596 2,261,156 2,487,272 2,735,999 3,009,599 3,310,559
Electricity expense 239,904 263,894 290,284 319,312 351,243 386,368 425,005 467,505 514,256 565,681
Travelling expense 251,520 276,008 302,881 332,370 364,730 400,240 439,208 481,970 528,896 580,390
Communications expense (phone, fax, mail, internet, etc.) 188,640 207,006 227,161 249,277 273,547 300,180 329,406 361,478 396,672 435,292
Office vehicles running expense 630,000 693,000 762,300 838,530 922,383 1,014,621 1,116,083 1,227,692 1,350,461 1,485,507
Office expenses (stationary, entertainment, janitorial services, etc.) 125,760 138,004 151,440 166,185 182,365 200,120 219,604 240,985 264,448 290,195
Promotional expense 2,676,431 3,279,394 3,608,336 3,969,170 4,366,087 4,802,695 5,282,965 5,811,261 6,392,388 7,031,626
Insurance expense 100,350 90,315 80,280 70,245 60,210 50,175 40,140 30,105 20,070 10,035
Professional fees (legal, audit, consultants, etc.) 446,072 546,566 601,389 661,528 727,681 800,449 880,494 968,544 1,065,398 1,171,938
Depreciation expense 267,200 267,200 267,200 267,200 267,200 267,200 267,200 267,200 267,200 267,200
Amortization of pre-operating costs 82,400 82,400 82,400 82,400 82,400 - - - - -
Bad debt expense 2,676,431 3,279,394 3,608,336 3,969,170 4,366,087 4,802,695 5,282,965 5,811,261 6,392,388 7,031,626
Miscellaneous expense 1 1,000,000 1,100,000 1,210,000 1,331,000 1,464,100 1,610,510 1,771,561 1,948,717 2,143,589 2,357,948
Subtotal 13,389,908 15,390,192 16,866,159 18,487,465 20,270,708 22,149,567 24,306,514 26,678,578 29,287,118 32,155,611
Operating Income 5,403,024 9,390,072 12,056,539 15,116,975 18,626,904 22,725,263 27,310,370 32,535,063 38,477,906 45,226,493
Earnings Before Interest & Taxes 5,403,024 9,390,072 12,056,539 15,116,975 18,626,904 22,725,263 27,310,370 32,535,063 38,477,906 45,226,493
Earnings Before Tax 5,403,024 9,390,072 12,056,539 15,116,975 18,626,904 22,725,263 27,310,370 32,535,063 38,477,906 45,226,493
Tax 1,080,605 1,878,014 2,411,308 3,023,395 3,725,381 4,545,053 5,462,074 6,507,013 7,695,581 9,045,299
NET PROFIT/(LOSS) AFTER TAX 4,322,419 7,512,058 9,645,231 12,093,580 14,901,523 18,180,210 21,848,296 26,028,051 30,782,325 36,181,194
5% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15%
Balance brought forward 4,322,419 11,834,477 21,479,708 33,573,288 48,474,811 66,655,022 88,503,318 114,531,369 145,313,693
Total profit available for appropriation 4,322,419 11,834,477 21,479,708 33,573,288 48,474,811 66,655,022 88,503,318 114,531,369 145,313,693 181,494,887
Dividend - - - - - - - - - -
Balance carried forward 4,322,419 11,834,477 21,479,708 33,573,288 48,474,811 66,655,022 88,503,318 114,531,369 145,313,693 181,494,887
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Calculations SMEDA
Balance Sheet
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
Assets
Current assets
Cash & Bank 2,349,000 1,644,002 6,926,516 13,917,127 23,065,102 34,581,678 48,720,658 65,964,172 86,749,344 111,566,260 197,134,278
Accounts receivable 1,710,961 1,903,689 2,201,558 2,422,034 2,664,237 2,930,661 3,223,727 3,546,100 3,900,710 4,290,781
Finished goods inventory 196,160 234,879 253,764 274,170 296,218 320,042 345,783 373,597 403,652 436,126
Raw material inventory 14,297,175 18,059,602 20,485,279 23,230,306 26,343,168 29,873,152 33,876,154 38,415,559 43,563,244 49,400,719 -
Pre-paid building rent 117,000 128,700 141,570 155,727 171,300 188,430 207,273 228,000 250,800 275,880 -
Pre-paid insurance 100,350 90,315 80,280 70,245 60,210 50,175 40,140 30,105 20,070 10,035 -
Total Current Assets 16,863,525 21,829,740 29,772,212 39,828,727 52,335,984 67,653,890 86,094,928 108,207,346 134,503,155 165,557,255 201,861,185
Fixed assets
Machinery & equipment 207,000 186,300 165,600 144,900 124,200 103,500 82,800 62,100 41,400 20,700 -
Furniture & fixtures 425,000 382,500 340,000 297,500 255,000 212,500 170,000 127,500 85,000 42,500 -
Office vehicles 1,800,000 1,620,000 1,440,000 1,260,000 1,080,000 900,000 720,000 540,000 360,000 180,000 -
Office equipment 240,000 216,000 192,000 168,000 144,000 120,000 96,000 72,000 48,000 24,000 -
Total Fixed Assets 2,672,000 2,404,800 2,137,600 1,870,400 1,603,200 1,336,000 1,068,800 801,600 534,400 267,200 -
Intangible assets
Pre-operation costs 412,000 329,600 247,200 164,800 82,400 - - - - - -
Total Intangible Assets 412,000 329,600 247,200 164,800 82,400 - - - - - -
TOTAL ASSETS 19,947,525 24,564,140 32,157,012 41,863,927 54,021,584 68,989,890 87,163,728 109,008,946 135,037,555 165,824,455 201,861,185
Other liabilities
Deferred tax 56,700 92,700 128,700 164,700 200,700 160,560 120,420 80,280 40,140 0
Total Long Term Liabilities - 56,700 92,700 128,700 164,700 200,700 160,560 120,420 80,280 40,140 0
Shareholders' equity
Paid-up capital 19,947,525 19,947,525 19,947,525 19,947,525 19,947,525 19,947,525 19,947,525 19,947,525 19,947,525 19,947,525 19,947,525
Retained earnings 4,322,419 11,834,477 21,479,708 33,573,288 48,474,811 66,655,022 88,503,318 114,531,369 145,313,693 181,494,887
Total Equity 19,947,525 24,269,944 31,782,002 41,427,233 53,520,813 68,422,336 86,602,547 108,450,843 134,478,894 165,261,218 201,442,412
TOTAL CAPITAL AND LIABILITIES 19,947,525 24,564,140 32,157,012 41,863,927 54,021,584 68,989,890 87,163,728 109,008,946 135,037,555 165,824,455 201,861,185
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Calculations SMEDA
Cash Flow Statement
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
Operating activities
Net profit 4,322,419 7,512,058 9,645,231 12,093,580 14,901,523 18,180,210 21,848,296 26,028,051 30,782,325 36,181,194
Add: depreciation expense 267,200 267,200 267,200 267,200 267,200 267,200 267,200 267,200 267,200 267,200
amortization of pre-operating costs 82,400 82,400 82,400 82,400 82,400 - - - - -
Deferred income tax 56,700 36,000 36,000 36,000 36,000 (40,140) (40,140) (40,140) (40,140) (40,140)
Accounts receivable (1,710,961) (192,728) (297,869) (220,476) (242,203) (266,424) (293,066) (322,373) (354,610) (390,071)
Finished goods inventory (196,160) (38,719) (18,886) (20,406) (22,048) (23,823) (25,741) (27,814) (30,054) (32,475)
Raw material inventory (14,297,175) (3,762,427) (2,425,677) (2,745,027) (3,112,861) (3,529,984) (4,003,002) (4,539,405) (5,147,685) (5,837,475) 49,400,719
Pre-paid building rent (117,000) (11,700) (12,870) (14,157) (15,573) (17,130) (18,843) (20,727) (22,800) (25,080) 275,880
Advance insurance premium (100,350) 10,035 10,035 10,035 10,035 10,035 10,035 10,035 10,035 10,035 10,035
Accounts payable 237,496 44,815 25,683 28,076 30,783 33,768 37,062 40,698 44,715 (104,324)
Other liabilities - - - - - - - - - -
Cash provided by operations (14,514,525) (704,998) 5,282,514 6,990,611 9,147,976 11,516,575 14,138,981 17,243,513 20,785,172 24,816,916 85,568,018
Financing activities
Issuance of shares 19,947,525 - - - - - - - - - -
Cash provided by / (used for) financing activities 19,947,525 - - - - - - - - - -
Investing activities
Capital expenditure (3,084,000) - - - - - - - - - -
Acquisitions
Cash (used for) / provided by investing activities (3,084,000) - - - - - - - - - -
NET CASH 2,349,000 (704,998) 5,282,514 6,990,611 9,147,976 11,516,575 14,138,981 17,243,513 20,785,172 24,816,916 85,568,018
Cash balance brought forward 2,349,000 1,644,002 6,926,516 13,917,127 23,065,102 34,581,678 48,720,658 65,964,172 86,749,344 111,566,260
Cash available for appropriation 2,349,000 1,644,002 6,926,516 13,917,127 23,065,102 34,581,678 48,720,658 65,964,172 86,749,344 111,566,260 197,134,278
Dividend - - - - - - - - - -
Cash balance 2,349,000 1,644,002 6,926,516 13,917,127 23,065,102 34,581,678 48,720,658 65,964,172 86,749,344 111,566,260 197,134,278
Cash carried forward 2,349,000 1,644,002 6,926,516 13,917,127 23,065,102 34,581,678 48,720,658 65,964,172 86,749,344 111,566,260 197,134,278
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Pre-Feasibility Study Solar Systems Distribution
13 KEY ASSUMPTIONS
Description Details
Shift Length 12 hours
Number of shifts 2
Days operational per year 330 days
Description Details
Description Details
Description Details
Project Life 10 years
March 2017 20