Indian Parliamentary Elections- Should Bangladesh worry?

Ziauddin Choudhury

A news of a well known Bangladeshi film actor having visa revoked for India for his alleged participation
in a vote campaign for a West Bengal candidate in the ongoing parliamentary elections in India is both
amusing and instructive. It is amusing because it looks like to some of us the political interests of India
and Bangladesh are interlocked. It is instructive because the incident should show to all of us where to
draw a line in our enthusiasm in demonstrating love for our fellow Bengalis on the other side. I do not
know the fallout of this ban on visa for the actor, but I do no know that it will have some impact on
Indian perception of active interest of Bangladesh in Indian elections. By Indian perception I mean the
view of the ruling party.

A Bangladeshi film actor’s campaign support for a particular candidate in Indian elections may not
matter in the larger scheme of things for India. But it does raise a question whether an individual
Bangladeshi’s open declaration of support for an opposition candidate is a barometer of Bangladesh’s
wishes for a change in India.

Perhaps there are wishes that a change in government in India could bring a change in our bilateral
relations, perhaps not. But the wishes of for a government in the more powerful neighboring country
that looks upon its smaller neighbors with a more benevolent eye may not be out of place. What may be
out of place is to expect that any country will sacrifice its own interests to accommodate the wishes of its
neighboring countries. Therefore, dancing for a particular political party or expecting that party would
win the next elections in India do not do us any good. Let me explain it a little further.

The political party that ruled Indian political space as well as the government for much of the time since
Indian independence has been Indian Congress. The leadership of this party was at the helms of Indian
government in the crisis of 1971, and it has been more than sympathetic to Bangladesh both in words
and action. It is the iron personality of Indira Gandhi and her party that stood solidly behind our struggle
for liberation and saw us through that critical period. Our leaders in return have expressed their
gratitude to this party leadership in returning the friendship via many bilateral treaties and international
alliances.

A critical flaw in this relationship has been mistaking personal relationship between the founders of our
country and their party with the political personalities of that time who happened to belong to Indian
Congress as permanent relationship between two countries. There is no doubt that strong personal
relationship between Indira Gandhi and Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was a driver in our bilateral
relationship, but that relationship did not or could not supplant our national interests. It took decades to
implement the bilteral agreement on land borders that was agreed upon soon after our liberation
between the two countries. The personal relationship between the two leaders was not enough to solve
our water sharing agreement on Ganges and Teesta. Yet, we continued to deceive ourselves by harking
back to “close” personal relationship that once existed between the leadership of the political party that
took the leading role in our independence and our country’s political leaders that period.

In our blind view we forget that there is no perennial government ruled by a single party. India is a
democracy, and its voters decide who they should send to power. In the past fifty years or so of our
existence we had seen seven Prime Ministers in India who did not belong to Indian National Congress
(even though a few of them did not last more than a year). But they all, including the current incumbent)
belonged to political opponents of Indian Congress. Can anyone say our bilateral relationship suffered
during the tenure of anyone of these non-Congress Prime Ministers?

It is difficult to prognosticate the final results of ongoing parliamentary elections in India. This is a
marathon of seven phases spread over six weeks. The current ruling party does not have a stellar report
card in its first term, but it can crow about success of the economy, and growth. It’s communal image
notwithstanding, the party’s iconic leader and Prime Minister has a vast brood of loyal supporters who
can and will run a relentless campaign for the party. Compared with this the leadership of the main
opposition Indian Congress is relatively young, and politically inexperienced. It is a battle between a
politically shrewd and experienced leader and a youth who is banking on the charisma of a family name
associated with Indian freedom.

It may be premature, but judging from accounts in Indian press and other international observations it
may not be that Indian voters will topple the current leadership from its position. It may not be a repeat
of 2015 results with a landslide for BJP, but it will not be another Congress government at the center this
time around.

On our side we have to recognize that personal closeness between leaders of countries does matter in
forming bonds and understandings. But this is not a substitute for fundamental aspects of bilateral
relationship, which is based on each country's own interest. These interests are best achieved by
maturity of statesmanship, strategic positioning, and deeper understanding of the views and policies of
the other country.

Governments come and go, but countries and people remain for long. With impending changes in India
our leaders need also to rise up to the challenges of new relationship and new dialogues. Our rhetoric
needs to be supported by plans, both tactical and strategic, to keep bilateral relations mutually
beneficial.

Despite the apparently close friendly relations with India in the last decades there still remain
unresolved issues between two countries, water sharing included. India has also some unmet wishes,
including transit and transshipment, and concerns over terrorism. A new government in India will look
upon these with as much earnestness as the one before. All of these require deft and competent
handling on our side. I hope we will be ready both politically and technically when the change comes.