Applied Energy 87 (2010) 298–309

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Applied Energy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/apenergy

Assessment of hydropower potential using GIS and hydrological modeling

technique in Kopili River basin in Assam (India)
B.C. Kusre a,*, D.C. Baruah b, P.K. Bordoloi b, S.C. Patra a
a
North Eastern Regional Institute of Water and Land Management, PO Kaliabhomora, Dolabari, Tezpur, Assam 784 027, India
b
Department of Energy, Tezpur University, Napaam, Tezpur, Assam 784 028, India

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: A hilly watershed in Kopili River basin in Assam (India) was considered for assessment of hydropower
Received 19 January 2009 potential using spatial tool (GIS) and hydrological model (SWAT2000). The available data related to
Received in revised form 29 June 2009 topography, soil, land use, weather and discharge pertaining to the study watershed were used to char-
Accepted 14 July 2009
acterize the watershed. The characterization was required for water resources hence hydropower assess-
Available online 29 August 2009
ment. The hydrology of the study watershed was simulated through the model. The prediction accuracy
of the model was confirmed through three well known efficiency criteria viz., coefficient of determination
Keywords:
(R2 = 0.70), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (E = 0.64) and Index of agreement (d = 0.91). A total of 107 sites on 9
Hydrological modeling
Soil and water assessment tool
streams could be identified as potential location for hydropower generation in the study watershed using
Hydropower the model outputs. Distributed power availability through micro units (<0.5 MW) has been the character-
istic feature of the watershed. Estimated potential carbon emission reduction (CER) within the watershed
might be up to 125 thousand t CO2, even 50% of the potential hydropower of the 1204 sq km watershed
could be implemented. The result of the study is expected to boost the initiative for hydropower gener-
ation in the region considering the limitation of fossil fuels, increasing power demand and availability of
untapped water resources.
Ó 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction spite immense potential of harnessing energy from water re-

Hydropower is a clean, renewable and reliable energy source
that serves national environmental and energy policy objectives.
It is one of the most important renewable sources for production
of electric power due to several obvious reasons. It is renewable
in nature, unlike wind, supply variability within shorter time per-
iod is less and most importantly green house gas (GHG) emission is
least. It is derived from the falling water, either from rivers and
streams flowing downhill along the river course due to force of
gravity. The energy associated with this flowing water is known
as kinetic energy that is released through the friction of flowing
water with the rocks and the sediment in the river beds. Harness-
ing the kinetic energy from the flowing water for driving turbine
generates hydropower.
The small scale use of hydropower has been practiced since pre
historic times. With the technological maturity in enhancing con-
version efficiency, the large scale use of hydropower has been in-
creased due to it is economic feasibility [1]. However, the growth
of hydropower has not been proportional to its potentiality. De-
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +91 94351 81827; fax: +91 3712 268077.
E-mail addresses: bharatneriwalm@yahoo.co.in, kusrebharat@gmail.com (B.C.
Kusre).
sources, its contribution to over all energy mix is still low. This is
evident from some of the recent statistics. The aggregate contribu-
tion of hydropower has been estimated as 6.15% of the total world
energy mix [2]. The overall electricity exploited from hydro so far is
only 25% of the economically viable potential with its concentra-
tion mostly in industrialized country [3]. In India it has been re-
ported that only 16.6% of the total potential hydroenergy have
been captured with a share of 25% of the country’s energy demand
[4]. It is also reported that in north-eastern region of India, only 2%
of the total potential (33,094 MW) has been harnessed so far [5].
Compared to other energy sources, the growth of hydropower
has also been slow (during 1990–2005 hydropower growth is
43% against 67% for thermal power and 73.8% for wind [6]).
The planning plays important role in the growth and develop-
ment of hydropower. The amount of achievable hydropower at
any given site is a function of turbine head and the corresponding
flow rate. Thus, harnessing hydroenergy requires assessment of the
water resource which depends upon the natural processes occur-
ring locally and also the terrain characteristics. Accurate and reli-
able assessment of water resources leads to successful planning.
However, reliable assessment of water resources has remained as
constraint. This is particularly true for the non-industrialized un-
der-developed regions and this might be the one of the factors of
inadequate growth of hydropower in such regions. The north-east-

0306-2619/$ - see front matter Ó 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2009.07.019
 B.C. Kusre et al. / Applied Energy 87 (2010) 298–309
ern sub-Himalayan region of India comprising hilly inaccessible
locations is such a resource-rich but poor-growth region.
Traditionally the historic data of discharge corresponding to
fixed location is considered for estimation of water resources and
hence planners use such information. But, in most of the cases
the water availability records of past time are location specific.
Due to complexity involved in hydrological phenomenon, the fu-
ture assessment based on past location specific observed data
poses doubts regarding the accuracy and reliability of assessment.
There may be several consequences of such inaccurate information
of water resource assessment. First, the underestimation may be
the chief cause of poor motivation for hydropower – even the ac-
tual availability would have been encouraging. Second, the assess-
ment based on the observation at selected location might miss
some more potential events at other locations, which might also
results erroneous planning. Third, the collections of observed data
from large number of observatories covering wide spatial extent
are both costly and time consuming. These seem to be the barriers
resulting sluggish growth of hydropower, particularly in the sub-
Himalayan north-eastern India.
With the advent of modern computation tools such as geo-
graphical information system (GIS), remote sensing and hydrolog-
ical models, the constraints as discussed above can be addressed
more comprehensively. The realistic representations of: (i) existing
terrain, (ii) complex hydrological phenomena and (iii) varying cli-
mate are now possible through spatial tools and modeling tech-
niques. Thus, not only spatial but also temporal simulation of
actual hydrology vis-à-vis water availability of a region is now
possible.
Hydrologic models are simplified, conceptual representations of
a part of the hydrologic cycle. They are primarily used for hydro-
logic prediction and for understanding of hydrologic processes. It
is a powerful technique of hydrologic system investigation for both
the research hydrologists and the practicing water resources engi-
neers. These models generally use mathematical and statistical
concepts to link certain inputs (for instance rainfall, temperature,
etc.) to the model output (for instance runoff). It has become pos-
sible to integrate all the physical events leading to better simula-
tion of physical world using GIS and hydrological model. The
advantages of these tools and models are their capability to simu-
late water content vis-à-vis discharge within miniature spatial ex-
tent for three different flows viz., overland, surface and channel
flows [7]. The uses of hydrological models have been increased
due to their merit over traditional methods for water resource
assessment. Number of literature could be consulted demonstrat-
ing the applications of process based models for simulating hydro-
logical processes, sediment load, nutrient load [8–10] and also
other related studies.
Hydropower assessment and environmental impact vis-à-vis
climate change have been some recent applications of hydrological
model. Physically based hydrological models that quantify the im-
pacts of local climate change on water resources, becomes power-
ful tool for futuristic planning [11] and also for estimating water
release for hydropower generation [12]. Kulkarni et al. [13] devel-
oped a simple model based on temperature index method in con-
junction with remote sensing data on snow glacial extent to assess
long term average stream runoff. Application of such model was
found useful to assess hydropower potential of snow and glaciated
streams in the Himalayas where information availability of real
world has been a constraint. Chalise et al. [14] estimated small
hydropower potential in Hindukush Himalayas in Nepal using sim-
ulated low flow. The low flows were estimated by using water bal-
ance principles and regionalization of flows were done by
developing grids of hydrological responses. In another study con-
ducted on Nemunas River in Lithuania, MIKE11 model was used
to simulate catchment hydrology and hence to evaluate impact
299
of different hydropower systems on environment [15]. Similar
applications of hydrological models for hydropower assessment
has also initiated in India. Gossain and Rao [16] demonstrated
the use of GIS integrated hydrological model for assessing hydro-
power potential in Nagaland (India).
GIS and remote sensing tools have also been widely used for
assessing hydropower potential in recent times. Carroll et al. [17]
observed the prospect of using GIS tools to identify potential small
hydropower (less than 1 MW) sites in USA. The usefulness of such
GIS evolved dataset was predicted for several stakeholders includ-
ing US Department of Energy, private and public power users and
researchers. GIS based resource assessment studies have also initi-
ated in under-developed and developing regions like Nepal and In-
dia. Pokharel [18] performed spatial analysis using GIS to develop
location specific energy resource and consumption profile in rural
areas of Nepal. Similarly, studies are also reported from Indian sub-
continent [19,20,4]. Ramachandra et al. [19] developed spatial
decision support system for assessing micro, mini and small hydro
project in Karnataka (India). The decision support system inte-
grates spatial information generated through GIS and water re-
sources assessment methods. Das and Paul [20] used GIS tools
for identifying suitable location for hydropower in West Bengal
(India). Dudhani et al. [4] demonstrated a systematic and compre-
hensive computational approach to extract information for identi-
fication of probable sites for small hydropower projects in
Uttarakhand (India).
The usefulness of GIS and remote sensing technologies are en-
hanced if process based hydrological models could be integrated
into it. Although there are number of benefits of GIS integrated
process based hydrological models, some limitations have also
been reported [21,22]. The requirement of large volume of data
concerning land use, soil and climate has been one major limita-
tion of hydrological modeling. Involvement of many sub-models
and associated considerations are also proved as limitations for
some specific situation. Such limitations could lead to prediction
uncertainties of the model. However, uncertainties can be mini-
mized through standard procedure of calibration and validation.
Thus, from the above discussion it is seen that for situation
where real data regarding water availability is not sufficient, sim-
ulated results are found useful for water resource development
and planning. The limitations of hydrological models have also
been effectively overcome to achieve such objectives. Similarly,
GIS and remote sensing maps can also contribute to identifying po-
tential hydropower sites. The sub-Himalayan north-eastern India
is a fitting example of sluggish growth of water resource develop-
ment. The investigation of the hydropower assessment capability
of hydrological modeling technique for watersheds located in the
north-eastern region of India is urgently required. Thus, consider-
ing the insufficient assessment of water resource vis-à-vis hydro-
power in sub-Himalayan north-eastern region of India, the study
has been undertaken for a hilly watershed of this region with the
following objectives:
(i) To identify potential hydropower sites using GIS and remote
sensing technology.
(ii) To assess spatial and temporal availability of water
resources using hydrological modeling technique.
(iii) To estimate theoretical hydropower potential in the study
watershed integrating results of spatial analysis and model
simulation.
2. North-eastern india
The North East region consists of eight Indian states and occu-
pies 27.22 Mha of land (8.11% of country’s land mass). It is charac-
terized by hills and valleys with 70% of the land falls under hilly
300 B.C. Kusre et al. / Applied Energy 87 (2010) 298–309
terrain. It receives almost 30% of the country’s rainfall resources
with average rainfall varying from 2000 to 4000 mm annually in
different parts of the region. Agriculture is the major activity in this
region. The Planning Commission of India categorized this region
as low productive but high potential zone of the country. Several
unique characteristic features make this region distinguished form
the remaining part of India. Existence of traditional cultivation
practices (Jhum or shifting cultivation), diverse cultural norms
and fabrics in form of multiple tribes, community land holding pat-
tern in the tribal areas and fragmented land holding in plain areas,
high rainfall, inaccessible areas due to difficult terrain are some of
the distinguishing features of this region. Economically, the states
of this region including Assam are considered backward compared
to other states of India [23]. The region has been marked as one of
the electrical power deficit regions of the country.
3. Study locations
In the present study the Umkhen watershed of Kopili catchment
(Kopili is a tributary of the River Brahmaputra) has been consid-
ered (Fig. 1). The Umkhen River originates near the South Western
slope of the Shillong Peak, at an altitude of 1829 m near Shillong in
the state of Meghalaya (India). The catchment area falls in the
coordinates of 25°300 N and 26°000 N latitude and 91°500 and
92°350 E longitude. The total area of the Umkhen watershed till
its confluence in Kopili River is 2228 sq km. However, in the pres-
ent study, the hydropower assessment was considered up to the
outlet at a distance of 102 km from the origin and the catchment
area till the outlet is 1204 sq km. The outlet at 102 km was consid-
ered because, observed discharge data required for modeling was
available at that location.
4. Methodology
Identification of sites and determination of flows at selected
sites have been the requirements for assessment of hydropower
potential. The methodology used to assess hydropower of the
Fig. 1. Umkhen watershed showing major streams.
Umkhen watershed is presented through the flowchart (Fig. 2)
and discussed below.
4.1. Criteria for identification of sites
For selection of sites the following three criteria have been
considered:
(i) Order of stream: Only fifth and higher order streams are
considered for selection of sites to ensure sufficient amount
of water flow.
(ii) Bottom gradient: Selected site should be such that average
gradient along the bottom of the stream should be 1:50
(i.e. 2%) or more to ensure sufficient potential head.
(iii) Minimum hydropower site interval: Distances between two
consecutive hydropower sites should not be less than 500 m.
4.2. Identification of hydropower sites
To select suitable sites, the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and
stream network were used. The DEM that describes the terrain fea-
tures of the study watershed was generated by interpolation of
contour data. The contour data at 20 m interval were extracted
from the Survey of India (SOI) toposheet at 1:50,000 scale. SOI
toposheets are prepared following standard procedure and is a uni-
versally recognized document. The status of hydropower develop-
ment in the watershed under study was also collected for
comparison of model results.
The stream network was also extracted from the SOI toposheets
at 1:50,000 scale. The stream ordering was done using Strahler
method [24]. According to the Strahler method, the stream origi-
nated from the top most elevation is marked as first order stream.
The stream generated by confluence of two 1st order streams is the
2nd order and so on till the last stream in the watershed is
obtained.
DEM and the stream network were overlaid to ascertain the ele-
vation and hence the available drop along the stream bed. Search
 B.C. Kusre et al. / Applied Energy 87 (2010) 298–309
Fig. 2. Flow chart for assessment for hydropower potential.
for the suitable locations initiated from the outlet of the watershed
stretching upstream was continued till the final location. The deci-
sion of suitable hydropower sites was taken based on set criteria.
4.3. Assessment of flow rates
For assessment of flow rate, the SWAT2000 hydrological model
was used. Basically, SWAT2000 is a long term, physically based,
continuous simulation watershed model developed to quantify
the impact of land management practices in large, complex catch-
ments. It has capabilities of simulating surface runoff, percolation,
return flow, erosion, nutrient loading, pesticide fate and transport,
irrigation, ground water flow, channel transmission losses, pond
and reservoir storage, channel routing, field drainage, plant water
use and other supporting processes from small, medium and large
watersheds. It can be applied to a large un-gauged rural watershed
with more than 100 numbers of sub-watersheds. SWAT model di-
vides a watershed into sub basins which allows accounting of land
uses and soil properties impact on hydrology. Then, the model sub-
divides these sub basins into smaller homogenous units known as
Hydrologic Response Units (HRU). The HRUs are lumped land areas
within the sub basin comprising of unique features of land cover,
soil and its management [25,26].
301
The application of SWAT2000 requires some specific data for
simulation of flow rates. These data can be categorized as spatial
thematic map data and discrete data at specific location. Spatial
thematic map data includes: (i) Digital Elevation Model (DEM),
(ii) stream network data, (iii) land use map, and (iv) soil map.
The input data corresponding to discrete location includes: (i) cli-
matic data and (ii) discharge data.
Generation of DEM and stream network has been discussed in
the previous section. The soil map was obtained from National Bu-
reau of Soil Survey and Land Use Planning (NBSSLUP). NBSSLUP is a
Government of India recognized organization that has mandate of
preparation of soil maps in India. Soil map at 1:250,000 scale pre-
pared by NBSSLUP are available for the study watershed. The soil
map obtained from NBSSLUP was scanned and geometrically trans-
formed to the appropriate location on the blank raster. The map-
ping units of the study area were digitized in ILWIS 3.3 GIS
software and 11 mapping units were available for the Umkhen wa-
tershed (Fig. 3). While the soil map provides the spatial information
regarding soil type, soil properties provides the characteristics of
each soil mapping unit in vertical direction. The soil properties in-
clude: (i) number of soil layers, (ii) texture (i.e. sand, silt, clay and
rock fragments), (iii) saturated hydraulic conductivity, (iv) porosity
fraction, (v) moist bulk density and (vi) available water capacity.
302 B.C. Kusre et al. / Applied Energy 87 (2010) 298–309
Fig. 3. Soil map of Umkhen watershed.
Values of some soil properties viz., soil depth and texture of
Umkhen watershed are available form NBSSLUP. However, values
of (i) fraction of porosity, (ii) moist bulk density, (iii) available
water capacity of the soil layer and (iv) saturated hydraulic con-
ductivity were not directly available for Umkhen. It is reported that
these properties are functionally related with the texture of the soil
which was known for Umkhen. The functional relationships are
used earlier [27,28] and also used to derive the required properties
of soil of Umkhem.
Similarly, land use maps of the study region prepared by two
recognized organizations viz., Geography Department, Cotton Col-
lege (India), and Assam Remote Sensing Application Centre,
Guwahati (India) have been used. The maps were also scanned
and digitized in ILWIS 3.3 GIS software (Fig. 4).
Besides the spatial data, the model also requires climatic data
related to (i) precipitation, (ii) daily maximum temperature and
daily minimum temperature. Daily temperature and rainfall data
recorded in two weather stations (Shillong: 25°300 30.0900 N
91°490 30.0200 E and Baithalangso: 25°590 32.8300 N 92°330 02.5700 E)
during 1984–1993 have been used for calibration and validation
of the model.
Finally, model required discharge data at representative outlets
of the streams for calibration and validation of the model. Dis-
charge data recorded at the outlet of the study watershed
(25°590 32.8300 N 92°330 02.5700 E) during 1988–1993 have been taken
for these purposes.
Longer data period of recent time would have been more useful
to minimize uncertainties associated with model development.
However, it is assumed that shorter and relatively older data period
would not reduce the usefulness of the present modeling work.
Further, the objective of the present study is to demonstrate the
applicability of models for assessment of hydropower potential.
The validity of using the short term data as a substitute of long
term data was tested through a statistical procedure. Long term
data pertaining to annual rainfall event for two meteorological sta-
tions in the vicinity of the study area were available. The average
values of long term annual rainfall data of Guwahati meteorological
station recorded during 1971–2000 and Shillong meteorological
station recorded during 1969–2000 were compared with their
respective short-term averages recorded during 1988–1993. Fail-
ure to prove the difference as statistically significant would support
the assumption for use of the available data in the present study.
 B.C. Kusre et al. / Applied Energy 87 (2010) 298–309
Fig. 4. Land use map of Umkhen watershed.
4.4. Calibration and validation of SWAT model
Model calibration is the adjustment of model parameters,
within recommended ranges, to optimize the agreement be-
tween observed and simulated results. The calibration tool of
SWAT2000 was available for adjustment through user interven-
tion. The required weather and discharge data recorded during
the year 1988–1990 have been used for the calibration of the
model.
Validation of the calibrated model is essential to test its simula-
tion performance. Calibrated model has been validated using a dif-
ferent set of weather and discharge data recorded during the
period of 1991–1993. The values of simulated discharge at speci-
fied location have been compared with the observed discharge
for validation of the model. Besides such comparison, validation
has also been tested using three established indices [29,22] viz.,
Coefficient of determination (R2), Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency (E)
and index of agreement (d). Anticipating differences in hydrologic
behavior of the watershed in rainy and non-rainy seasons, the val-
idation have been tested for both of these periods separately in
addition to validation of the entire period.
303
4.5. Sensitivity analysis
The identification of sensitive model parameters effecting the
model predictions was done by sensitivity analysis. The SWAT
modeling has in-built list of model parameters with prescribed
ranges of values. Sensitivity analysis was performed running the
model for output by varying a particular model parameter within
the prescribed range keeping remaining parameters unaltered.
This was repeated for all the parameters and most sensitive param-
eters were identified.
4.6. Model application
After the calibration of the model, the discharges at the identi-
fied sites have been estimated. The estimation of discharge started
with the confluence point of two streams (Fig. 5) and proceeded
further till all the confluence points of all the 5th and higher order
streams were completed. If more than two locations were identi-
fied between two consecutive confluence points, changes of dis-
charge were ignored.
304 B.C. Kusre et al. / Applied Energy 87 (2010) 298–309

Fig. 5. Sub watersheds and outlets for estimation of hydropower in Umkhen watershed.

4.7. Flow-duration curve (FDC)
A flow-duration curve (FDC) provides the percentage of time the
stream flow is exceeded over a historical period for a particular riv-
er basin [30]. Construction of FDC is a pre-requisite of hydropower
planning besides other uses [31]. Temporal water discharge data
have been simulated by the model corresponding to a period of
1984–1993 for which rainfall and temperature data was available.
These modeled discharge data have been used to construct flow-
duration curves for all the identified hydropower locations. As
mentioned earlier, the results are considered relevant and useful
for the present time.
5. Results
The results of the present study corresponding to: (i) stream
characterization, (ii) applicability of short term data, (iii) sensitiv-
ity analysis, (iv) calibration and validation, and (v) flow-duration
curves are discussed below.
5.1. Stream characterization
There are nine streams in Umkhen watershed with stream order
of five and higher than five. Therefore, these nine streams have
been considered by the model for estimation of natural hydro-
power potentialities. For the present study, sites having 2% and
more bed slopes have been considered as the potential sites. The
model could identify 107 potential hydropower sites in these
streams. The characteristics of these nine streams are presented
in Table 1.
The overall bed slopes of these nine streams are estimated from
the total drop and stream length and found to vary between 0.65%
and 4.76%. However, except one stream (2.5 km) where four sites
have been identified, the overall bed slopes of the remaining eight
streams are less than 2%. The steeper is the stream more is the
availability of potential head, thus, for a given discharge higher is
the power potentiality. However, for the stability point of view,
too steep streams are not desirable. The knowledge of the geolog-
ical characteristics of the sites would be required to investigate the
steepness vis-à-vis stability phenomena. Though in the present
investigation such analyses are not done, the information on
stream steepness may be useful for comprehensive planning for
the utilization of the water resources.
The maximum number of 49 hydropower locations has been
identified in the longest stream (102 km) having an average bed
slope of 1.10%. On an average one hydropower station at spacing
of 2.13 km would be available in this longest stream. Except the
shortest stream having four sites, the average spacing between
sites in the remaining eight sites ranges from 1.38 km to
4.43 km. In general, steeper streams provide more number of sites
and hence are closely located.
It is also noticed (Table 1) that streams are flowing within the
elevation range between 1202 m and 80 m. In Umkhen watershed,
75% of the land area falls in the elevation range between 600 m and

Table 1
Characteristics of the streams in Umkhen watershed.

Sl. no. Stream length (km) Maximum elevation (m) Minimum elevation (m) Number of hydropower sites Average bed slope (%) Average spacing between
two stations (km)
1 102.00 1202 80 49 1.10 2.13
2 31.00 819 616 8 0.65 4.43
3 30.00 819 617 8 0.67 4.29
4 17.50 629 291 12 1.93 1.59
5 16.50 820 501 13 1.93 1.38
6 12.00 955 859 5 0.80 3.00
7 7.50 858 739 6 1.59 1.50
8 2.50 898 859 2 1.56 2.50
9 2.50 976 857 4 4.76 0.83
 B.C. Kusre et al. / Applied Energy 87 (2010) 298–309 305

8 Parameters Description
CN2 Initial CN II values
7.04
7 SOL_AWC Soil available water flow
6.4 RS- Relative GWQMN Threshold water flow in
6 Sensitivities shallow aquifer for flow
Relative sensitivity

Small to negligible REVAPMN Threshold water depth in the

0<RS<0.05 shallow aquifer for flow (mm)
5
alpha_bf Base flow recession alpha
factor (days)
4 ESCO Soil evaporation
compensation factor
3 N Mannings N for tributary
channel
2 SLOPE Average slope steepness
sol_k Saturated hydraulic
1.1
1 0.93 0.9 conductivity
0.52 0.5 GWREVAP Groundwater "revap"
0.2 0 .2 0.09 0.04 0.01 0.01 coefficient
0
CH_K2 Channel effective hydraulic
CN2

SOL_AWC

GWQMN

REVAPMN

alpha_bf

ESCO

SLOPE

sol_k

GWREVAP

CH_K2

surlag

epco
conductivity
surlag Surface runoff lag time
epco Plant uptake compensation
Parameter factor

Fig. 6. Sensitive parameters and their relative sensitivities.

1100 m above mean sea level (msl). The elevations of the upper of estimated values of RS. The categorization of sensitive parame-
end of the streams vary from 1202 m to 629 m above msl. On the ters on the basis of such classification for the present study is pre-
other hand the outlets of the streams are located within the eleva- sented in Fig. 6. The in-built sub-routine of the model identified the
tion range between 80 m and 859 m above msl. The human habita- thirteen sensitive parameters including (i) curve number, (ii) base
tion and their activities are mostly governed by the geographical flow recession alpha factor (days), (iii) threshold depth of water in
locations. Thus, information regarding elevation of streams and the shallow aquifer, (iv) soil evaporation compensation factor, (v)
its banks is linked with the competitive uses of water resources. available water capacity of the soil layer (mm/mm soil), (vi)
The assessment of energy demands and their load center would threshold water depth in the shallow aquifer for flow (mm) and
also depend upon the nature of habitation and its activities. The (vii) Manning ‘n’ for the tributary channel. The sensitive model
type of habitation in such altitude has been reported as very parameters can be grouped based on relative sensitivities which
sparse. However, a comprehensive account of spatial distribution has been defined and discussed in earlier work [23].
of population in the areas could not be considered for the present
study. 5.4. Calibration and validation

5.2. Applicability of short term climate and discharge data Calibration was performed by adjusting the parameters with
higher sensitivity. Seven parameters which were identified as
The duration of data period for temporal varying data has been higher sensitivity could be calibrated for the present study. The
one of the concerns of the model. The climatic and discharge data calibration was continued till the difference between modeled
was available for five continuous years and used with the assump- water yield (calibrated) and corresponding observed water yield
tion that such data will be representative of the long term situation could not be minimized. The calibrated water yield (modeled)
prevailed in the study watershed. To verify this assumption a sta- and observed water yield corresponding to spatial and temporal
tistical significance test was performed comparing the long dura- reference are plotted and presented in Fig. 7. The Figure indicates
tion climatic data with short duration data of two well that there exists variation in the observed and simulated values.
established meteorological data stations neighboring to the study The differences are more pronounced during the months of June
watershed. The calculated t values for Guwahati meteorological and July. Specifically, the maximum variation was observed during
data stations (1.7904) and Shillong meteorological data stations June 1989 and minimum variation was observed during April
(0.94058) were less than the tabulated value of 2.04 at 95% confi-
dence level. Thus, no significant difference of long term (30 years)
700
and short term (6 years) was found as indicated by the results of t-
test. Therefore, the use of 6 years data would be representative of 600
Water Yield in mm

long duration data and is found supportive of our assumption. 500

400
5.3. Sensitivity analysis
300

The sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the most sen- 200
sitive model parameters for Umkhen watershed while modeling:
100
(a) surface flow, (b) base flow, (c) evapo-transpiration, (d) time of
concentration and (e) surface roughness. The sensitive model 0
Jul-88

Jul-89

Jul-90
Mar-89

Mar-90
May-88

May-89

May-90
Jan-89

Jan-90
Sep-88

Nov-88

Sep-89

Nov-89

Sep-90

Nov-90

parameters are grouped based on relative sensitivities which has

been defined and discussed in earlier work [32]. The relative sensi-
tivity (RS) is a measure of the absolute differences of model out-
Simulated Observed
puts corresponding to extreme values of model parameters.
While using SWAT model for simulating watershed hydrology, Fig. 7. Simulated and observed monthly water yields at the watershed outlet
Abraham et al. [32] classified the model parameters on the basis during calibration (1988–1990).
306 B.C. Kusre et al. / Applied Energy 87 (2010) 298–309
Table 2
Parameters used for calibration of SWAT model for Umkhen watershed.
Sl no. Parameters
1 Surface runoff curve number (CN2) for land use:
(a) Forest Evergreen
(b) Shifting cultivation
(c) Pine
2 Base flow recession alpha factor (days)
3 Threshold depth of water in the shallow aquifer
4 Soil evaporation compensation factor
5 Available water capacity of the soil layer (mm/mm soil)
6 Threshold water depth in the shallow aquifer for flow (mm)
7 Manning ‘n’ for the tributary channel
1989. The calibrated parameters and their numerical values are
presented in Table 2. The prescribed SWAT limits corresponding
to the identified parameters are also given in the Table 2 for com-
parison [26]. As can be seen, the values of the calibrated parame-
ters are within the prescribed limits.
The numbers of parameters adjusted were compared with
works of other researchers. It was observed that the parameters
adjusted are dependent on watershed characteristics. Kannan
et al. [10] obtained reasonable agreement between observed and
simulated values by adjusting five parameters in Colworth wa-
tershed in UK, whereas Abraham et al. [32] in a study conducted
in Euthopia adjusted seven parameters. In another study con-
ducted by Pandey [33] in India adjusted 12 parameters and Bärl-
und et al. [34] adjusted 13 parameters for a watershed. From the
results of these studies it could be concluded that parameters to
be calibrated have been the characteristics of the watershed and
Umkhen also displayed characteristics calibration behaviour.
Validation was done by applying the model for a different set of
data (1991–1993) not used during calibration. The prediction accu-
racy of the model was tested using different statistical parameters
discussed earlier. The results of the statistical analysis are pre-
sented in Table 3. The validation criteria were also tested for both
rainy and non-rainy period. The results indicated that the varia-
tions between observed and simulated values are more during
rainy period as compared to non-rainy period. The hydrological
model prediction ability vis-à-vis validity is generally tested by
such statistical test procedure. The results of the present investiga-
tion were compared with such works done earlier [8–10,34,35] and
found validated. The validated model of Umkhen watershed would
ensure prediction of spatial and temporal availability of water re-
sources for hydropower assessment.
5.5. Hydropower assessment using flow-duration curve (FDC)
Flow-duration curve is the basic tool for hydropower planning.
Umkhen watershed has been divided into 60 sub-watersheds con-
sidering confluence of two streams of 5th order and higher than
5th order as outlets points. Based on the flow obtained from the
model, 60 numbers of flow-duration curves have been generated.
As discussed in the previous section there have been 107 selected
sites. The locations of the remaining 47 sites are intermediate and
therefore, FDCs of these sites and their upstream sites are consid-
ered identical. Generally, FDC construction requires long-term flow
Table 3
Values of validation parameters during different period.
Sl no. Validation parameters Entire Rainy
period period
1 Coefficient of determination (R2) 0.70 0.68
2 Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (E) 0.64 0.0
3 Index of Agreement (d) 0.91 0.83
Initial values Results of calibration Recommended range
65 52 35–98
62.5 50
77.5 62
0.2 0.48 0–1
10.00 1.0 0–500
0.95 0.1 0–1
0.05 0.2 0–1
10.00 20 0–5000
0.05 0.1 0.01–0.12
data. However, in the present study, 9 years simulated discharges
have been considered. The physically based hydrological model de-
scribes the physical processes of the watershed. It is assumed that
the simulated discharge provided by hydrological model would
appropriately represent hydrological phenomena over a long peri-
od of time. The assumption has valid ground, because not much
change in the land use and land cover are anticipated in the study
watershed.
FDCs enabled to determine discharge corresponding to varying
degree of dependability. Normally for power estimation 50%, 75%
and 90% dependability discharge values are considered and for this
study these three levels dependability flows have been considered.
After characterizing the streams in terms of (i) head and (ii)
FDC, the available hydropower at the identified sites have been
estimated using established power equation [36]. As mentioned
earlier, only naturally available sites, where power could be gener-
ated without constructing reservoir, were identified. The objective
of the study was to demonstrate the strength of GIS and modeling
techniques for assessment of hydropower potential in inaccessible
region of North Eastern part of India. In earlier studies where the
assessment was done using these techniques, potential were ob-
tained either at the outlet of the watershed or at suitable location
identified for hydropower plants. However, the present study
could identify the theoretical potential sites as well as the associ-
ated hydropower potential.
Estimated aggregate power potential of each of the nine
streams in Umkhen at three levels of dependability along with per-
centage of power share by each of them are presented in Table 4.
The longest stream (102.00 km) would produce the maximum
power (more than 86% of the total power potential of Umkhen)
at all levels of dependability flows. Other streams in the watershed
are found as minor contributors.
In India, the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy Sources
(MNRE) centrally implement Government’s renewable energy pol-
icies through several local agencies including state nodal agencies.
Small hydropower (i.e. below 25 MW) comes under the purview of
MNRE. There are some policy incentives for encouraging the
growth of hydropower based on the size of the plant, which are
categorized into five groups viz., power units (i) less than
0.5 MW; (ii) 0.5–1.0 MW; (iii) 1.0–5.0 MW; (iv) 5.0–15 MW and
(v) 15–25 MW. The amount of financial incentives also depends
upon the location of the sites (plain or hilly) and remoteness etc.
As north-eastern region of India is remotely located, special incen-
tives are provided for establishment of small hydropower units in
this region. In view of such policy tools prevailing in this region,
the hydropower potential estimated in the present study is catego-
rized in line with the MNRE classification as shown in Table 5. Esti-
Non-rainy mated power at 50% dependability flow has only been presented in
period
Table 5 and discussed below.
0.93 Distributed power availability through micro units (<0.5 MW) is
0.86
the characteristic feature of Umkhen watershed. Out of the total
0.96
132.67 MW estimated hydropower generated at 107 sites of the
 B.C. Kusre et al. / Applied Energy 87 (2010) 298–309 307

Table 4 that Assam State Electricity Board (ASEB) and Assam Energy Devel-
Estimated theoretically achievable hydropower at three levels of dependability in opment Agency (AEDA) have identified 99 sites with an aggregate
Umkhen, MW.
potential of 161.58 MW [39]. Traditional approaches, based on his-
Sl Stream Estimated hydropower at three levels of dependability (MW) torical gauged data, are followed for hydropower assessment of
no. length these sites.
At 0.50 At 0.75 At 0.90
(km)
dependability dependability dependability The application of traditional method for hydropower assess-
1 102.00 117.4 15.65 8.81 ment in Umkhen watershed was limited to only one specific site
2 31.00 1.81 0.24 0.18 near the outlet. The 100 MW power plant with storage reservoir
3 30.00 1.53 0.2 0.15 near the outlet of the watershed has already been commissioned
4 17.50 0.9 0.08 0.03
and it is learnt that traditional method was used to plan this power
5 16.50 6.24 1.31 0.45
6 12.00 0.49 0.06 0.03 plant. The estimated power potential of the present investigation
7 7.50 2.03 0.33 0.12 did not consider construction of dam. Thus, the assessed results
8 2.50 0.71 0.12 0.05 of the present investigation could not be compared with size of
9 2.50 1.07 0.19 0.09
the installed power plant.
Total 221.5 132.18 18.18 9.91
As a part of the ongoing power reform strategy, Government of
India opened the power generation for private party, i.e. for Inde-
pendent Power Producer (IPP). However, dearth of location specific
information regarding generation capacity has been a prime bar-
Table 5 rier to attract IPP even after keeping provision for policy support
Category wise break-up of estimated hydropower sites in Umkhen watershed at 50%
and financial incentive. It is anticipated that specific information
dependability flow.
generated in the present study with respect to 107 potential sites
Category (MW) Number of sites Total power (MW) % of total power would useful to stimulate IPP, which in turn assist growth of
Less than 0.5 68 14.33 10.80 hydropower. Success of such hydropower programme would also
0.5–1.0 6 4.11 3.10 benefit welfare scheme of the Government including ‘‘100% rural
1.0–5.0 27 68.02 51.27
electrification programme”.
5.0–15.0 6 46.21 34.83
Total 107 132.67 100.00 The development of hydropower in the study region based on
estimated generated capacity could also comprehensively address
land and water management issues in addition to power genera-
tion. Soil erosion in the upstream and flood at down stream have
watershed, only 10.8% is shared by 68 sites. It could be planned and been common problems in this region. The study identified nine
anticipated that decentralized hydropower generation would ben- major interconnected streams in the watersheds with varying flow
efit 68 localities primarily for residential power supply. This could characteristics. It would provide scope for comprehensive plan of
be a relief for the people living in these areas, as rural areas in this power generation and resources management.
region are struggling with inadequate supply of electricity even for The estimated hydropower discussed above (Table 5) has been
essential domestic needs. There have been several success stories at 50% dependability. Thus, to ensure reliable power supply during
[37–39] of development of remote and isolated regions in South the remaining 50% of the time alternate arrangements are to be
Asian countries through Micro level hydropower generation. Tech- made. Considering the existing resource availability, possibilities
nology is no longer barrier for such power generation. For eco- of such arrangement are discussed below.
nomic viability, the existing financial incentives provided by
MNRE could be utilized.
6. Hybrid mode of power production with carbon credit
Share of medium and larger categories of power plant (1–5 MW
opportunity
and 5–15 MW) has been estimated to be substantial (more than
85% of the total generating capacity). Due importance may be given
In order to meet the growing demand of electricity through sus-
to produce grid quality power through these sites.
tainable production utilizing renewable energy resources, hybrid
The sites identified in the present investigation are only theo-
mode of renewable energy production has been drawing attention
retically potential sites identified based on model outputs. Further
[40–42].
investigation will be required to identify the practically feasible
Two major alternate sources viz., solar and biomass available in
sites. The North Eastern Electrical Power Corporation Limited
the study area could supplement hydropower and thus ensure con-
(NEEPCO), Brahmaputra Board, Central Water Commission (CWC)
tinuous power supply. Preliminary investigation revealed the
and some state government agencies such as state power depart-
ment and renewable energy departments are prime agencies in-
volved in assessment of small and large hydropower resources in
Table 6
north-eastern India. Traditional approaches, based on historical
Statewise numbers and aggregate capacity of small hydroprojects (up to 25 MW)
gauged data, are followed for their assessment. However, extent installed and under implementation (as on 31.03.2007).
of coverage remains limited due to several inherent limitations
Sl. no. State Projects installed Projects under
in assessment. In the entire north-eastern region consisting of
implementation
eight constituent states, 124 sites with 176.77 MW of hydropower
Nos. Capacity (MW) Nos. Capacity (MW)
have been commissioned and 78 sites with 102.17 MW are under
various stages of implementation [37]. The state wise details of 1 Arunachal Pradesh 68 45.24 56 41.82
the project sites are shown in Table 6. 2 Assam 3 2.11 4 15
3 Manipur 8 5.45 3 2.75
Small run-off the river schemes are under operation in the state 4 Meghalaya 3 30.71 3 1.7
of Arunachal Pradesh (India). It is reported that during the year, 5 Mizoram 16 17.47 3 15.5
2003–2004, a total of 31 schemes with capacity varying from 6 Nagaland 9 20.67 5 12.2
5 kW to 20 kW were sanctioned with aggregate potential of 7 Sikkim 14 39.11 4 13.2
8 Tripura 3 16.01 – –
775 kW by the Government agency [38]. Reports of similar initia-
Total 124 176.77 78 102.17
tives are also available from another north-eastern state (Assam)
308 B.C. Kusre et al. / Applied Energy 87 (2010) 298–309
Table 7
Carbon emission from different power generating units in Assam.
Sl no. Power Capacity (MW) Fuel 1
station as on 31.03.2007
1 Namrup 133.5 Gas
2 Lakwa 120.0 Gas
3 Kathalguri 291.0 Gas
4 DLF 24.5 Gas
5 Chandrapur 60.0 Oil
6 Bongaigaon 240.0 Coal
7 Mobile gas T-G 21.0 Gas
8 Kopili 225.0 Hydro
9 Karbi Langpi 100.0 Hydro
Source: www.cea.nic.in.
availability of these resources. The existence of clear sky during
non-rainy season is evident from remote sensing imagery of the re-
gion. Further, the regeneration capacity of the soil in the area also
makes it rich in biomass production. Both of these are now feasible
technologies (solar and biomass) with high level of maturity. How-
ever, to ensure economic feasibility, like small hydropower, the
provision of the policy benefits for development of this renewable
energy sources could also be extended.
Considering the remoteness of the region, the installation of
power projects may not be profitable venture based on the antici-
pated revenue of generation. Therefore, possibility of taking advan-
tages of all existing policy instruments need to be explored. The
Government of Assam has already initiated such move, even to
get the CDM benefits from the hydropower development in Assam.
The possible economic benefits obtainable from the estimated
hydropower generation are briefly discussed on the background
of existing power production status.
In Assam, the total electricity generated through four major
thermal power generating units during 2006–2007 was recorded
as 2661 GWh with an average specific CO2 emission of 0.715 t
CO2/MW h [6]. The total electricity production for all the power
generating units in the state of Assam, fuel used and the emission
are shown in Table 7. Corresponding to the estimated potential
hydropower production in Umkhen, about 350 GW h per annum
would be generated (at 60% load factor). Even 50% of the estimated
hydropower generating capacity is developed it could generate
about 125 thousand t CO2 reduction. Considering the present value
of carbon market, this amount could yield substantial economic
support for encouraging hydropower development in this region.
7. Conclusions
Traditionally the water resources assessment is made using his-
torically observed discharged data at outlet of the watershed. Such
assessments were site specific and would generally ignore some
other potential sites within the watershed resulting poor motiva-
tion of water resources project. The disadvantages associated with
these methods could be overcome using latest modeling tools.
However, such modeling approach requires large number of data
such as terrain (DEM), land use, soil properties and meteorological
data. In the present study SWAT2000 was applied to a hilly wa-
tershed situated in North East (NE) India using the available data
to assess water resources and hence hydropower potentiality.
The specific conclusions of the present study are given below:
(a) Umkhen, a typical hilly watershed located in north-eastern
region of India, has been characterized for hydrological
behaviour using spatial tools and SWAT2000 model. The
available weather and discharge data pertaining to the
watershed have been used for such characterization which
enabled to assess spatial availability of water resources
and hence the hydropower potentiality.
Fuel 2 2006–2007 Net 2006–2007 Absolute 2006–2007 Specific
generation (GW h) emissions (t CO2) emissions (t CO2/MW h)
N/A 357 272,846 0.77
Diesel 443 382,118 0.86
N/A 1756 1,016,452 0.58
N/A 105 68,144 0.65
N/A 0 0 0.00
Oil 0 0 0.00
N/A 0 0 0.00
695 0 0.00
0 0 0.00
(b) The simulation capability of model was tested using three
different criteria viz., Coefficient of determination (R2),
Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (E) and index of agreement (d).
The variations between observed and simulated values were
within reasonable degree of agreement. The variation was
more during rainy season as compared to non-rainy period.
(c) The limitation of the modeling process in Umkhen
watershed was particularly related to availability of data.
Specifically, the data available for rainfall and temperature
were less as compared to the size of the watershed. Simi-
larly, the soil mapping was done at a grid of 10 sq km that
might have ignored the some finer variability of soil
characteristics.
(d) Nine streams with theoretical potential of about 133 MW
available in 107 sites could be identified in the 1204 sq km
Umkhen watershed. The length of the streams varied from
2.54 km to 102 km and the average bed slope varied from
0.65% to 4.76%. The suggested sites are run-of the river sites
with no storage reservoir.
(e) Distributed power availability through micro units
(<0.5 MW) is the characteristic feature of Umkhen
watershed. Out of the total 133 MW estimated hydropower
generated at 107 sites of the watershed, only 10.8% is shared
by 68 sites.
(f) The estimated carbon emission reduction might be up to 125
thousand t CO2 even if 50% of the theoretical hydropower
potential of Umkhen watershed is achieved.
(g) The results of the model application study in Umkhen
watershed is anticipated to boost the current initiative of
hydropower production in this region considering: (i) the
inherent limitations of fossil based energy system, (ii) grow-
ing electrical energy demand, and (iii) untapped vast water
resources of north-eastern India.
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