Major Trends in the

World Coffee Market

2nd Moscow International Coffee Forum

Moscow, Russia
8 February
F b 2010

Néstor Osorio
Executive Director
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

ICO composite indicator price

Monthly: January 2000 to January 2010
150

140

130

120

110
US cents per pound

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

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 ICO group indicator prices
Daily: 1 October 2008 to 29 January 2010
240

230

220

210

200

190

180

170
US cents per pound

160

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

Colombian Milds Other Milds Brazilian Naturals Robustas

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

World Production
Crop years 2000 to 2009
140

129.1 128.1
122.6 123.0-125.0
118.9
120 115.9
113.4
111 2
111.2
107.9
104.7

100

80
million bags

60

40

20

0
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09* 2009/10*

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

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 Total production in 2008/09

Vietnam Africa
14% 11% Asia&Oceania
13%
Colombia
7%

Central America +
Brazil Mexico
37% South America 14%
4%

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

Production by type of coffee

Crop year 2008/09

Robusta
49.5
39%

Arabica
78.6
61%

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

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 Production: 10 leading producers 2008/09
(Volume in 000 bags - % of world production)
Brazil 45 992 36.8
Vietnam 18 500 14.4
Indonesia 9 350 7.5
Colombia 8 664 6.9
Mexico 4 650 3.7
India 4 372 3.5
Ethiopia 4 350 35
3.5
Peru 3 872 3.1
Guatemala 3 785 3.0
Uganda 3 200 2.6
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

Total exports to all destinations

Calendar years 2000 to 2009
110

100 96.6 97.7

94.7
91.1 92.3
90.9
89.6 88.8
90 87 6
87.6
86.4

80

70
million bags

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

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 Value of coffee exports
Calendar years 2000 to 2009*
18

16 15.3

14 13.6
12.8

12
10.8
billion US dollars

10 9.3

8.2
8
6.9

6 54
5.4 5.6
5.2

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

World consumption
Calendar years 2000 to 2009
140
132.0
130.0
127.1
122.6
118.5 119.0
120
112 8
112.8
109.0 110.5
104.7

100

80
million bags

60

40

20

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008* 2009*

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

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Estimated consumption in 2008:
10 leading markets by volume
(in million 60-kg bags)
USA 21.7
Brazil 17.9
Germany 9.6
Japan 7.1
Italy 5.9
France 5.1
Russian Federation 3.7
Spain 3.5
Indonesia 3.3
United Kingdom 3.1
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

Consumption per capita:

top 10 leading markets by volume
(in kg (green equivalent) per year)
Finland 12.6
Switzerland 9.1
Norway 9.0
Sweden 8.3
Iceland 8.3
Denmark 7.7
Germany 7.0
Estonia 6.9
Austria 6.5
Bosnia & Herzegovina 6.2

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

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 World consumption in 2008
(in million 60-kg bags)
Africa
6.9
5% Asia&Oceania
20.1
15%

Central America +
Europe
Mexico
50.1
4.8
39%
4%

North America
25.8
20%
South America
22.2
17%

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

World coffee consumption

Evolution 2000 – 2008
(in thousand 60-kg bags)

A
Annuall
2000 2008* growth (%)

Traditional markets 63 377 68 584 0.88

Producing countries 25 604 35 855 3.81

Emerging markets 15 744 25 565 5.53

WORLD TOTAL 104 725 130 004 2.43

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

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World Coffee Consumption: Traditional markets
Evolution 2000 – 2008
(in thousand 60-kg bags)

Annuall
A
2000 2008* growth
Total 63 377 68 584 0.88
European Community 38 005 39 867 0.53
Germany 8 770 9 554 0.96
Italy 5 149 5 937 1.60
France 5 402 5 154 -0.52
Spain 2 991 3 485 1.71
United Kingdom 2 342 3 067 3.04
USA 18 746 21 652 1.61
Japan 6 626 7 065 0.72

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

World coffee consumption: Producing countries

Evolution 2000 – 2008
(in thousand 60-kg bags)

Annual
growth
2000 2008* (%)
Total 25 604 35 855 3.81
Brazil 13 075 17 526 3.31
Indonesia 1 664 3 333 8.03
Mexico 1 189 2 200 7.08
Ethiopia 1 642 1 833 1.23
India 938 1 518 5.50
Others 7 098 9 444 3.22

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

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 World coffee consumption: Emerging markets
Evolution 2000 – 2008
(in thousand 60-kg bags)
Annual
growth
2000 2008* (%)
Emerging markets 15 744 25 565 5.53
Russian Federation 1 863 3 716 7.97
Algeria 1 779 2 118 1.96
Ukraine 179 1 733 28.71
K
Korea, R
Republic
bli off 1 246 1 665 3 28
3.28
Australia 832 1 145 3.61
China* 859 940 1.01
Others 8 986 14 248 5.26

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

Consumption in the Russian Federation

Calendar years 2000 to 2008
4.5

4.1
4.0
3.7
36
3.6
3.5 3.4
3.2 3.3
3.1
3.0
3.0
million bags

2.5

2.0 1.9

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

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 Main origins of the coffee imported by
the Russian Federation in 2008
Others Brazil
20.3% 20.3%

Indonesia India
3.3% 14.0%

Spain
3.4%

Poland
3.8%

Switzerland Germany
Ecuador 10.5%
3.9% 5.0% Colombia Vietnam
5.5% 9.9%

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

Consumption in Ukraine
Calendar years 2000 to 2008
2.0

1.8 1.73

1.6

1.4

1.2
million bags

1.06
1.02
1.0 0.97

0.8 0.74
0.65
0.6
0.44
0.4

0.23
0.18
0.2

0.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

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 Main origins of the coffee imported
by Ukraine in 2008
Others
Ecuador Austria
8.6% Germany
2.7% 1.9%
Singapore
28.7%
3.5%

Russian Federation
3.8%

Colombia
4.1%

Poland
6.7%

France
8.8% Brazil
21.9%

India
9.3%

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

Consumption in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania

Calendar years 2000 to 2008
600
561.2

500 480 8
480.8 482 3
482.3 472.8
461.0 464.1 462.1
446.0 213.4
432.4

400
197.3 193.4
203.8
204.3 208.3 173.1
173.2 230.1
000 bags

300

180.8

144.2 115.1
200 155.0
158.6
161.8 149.8 145.0
130 9
130.9

100
166.9 153.9
128.5 144.7
97.3 106.9 110.8 114.4 101.1

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

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 Main origins of the coffee imported by
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in 2008
Others
24.7% Germany
16.1%

Finland
16.0%
Vietnam
3.5%

Colombia
3.6%

Sweden
4.2%
Spain
8.9%
Denmark
4.4%
Poland
Lithuania 7.0%
5.7% Brazil
5.8%

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

Supply and demand projections

2010 to 2020
180

170

160

150

140
million bags

130

120

110

100

90

80

Total production Total consumption Production trend High 2.4% Consumption 2% Low 1.5%

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

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World Coffee Conference
Guatemala, 26-28 February 2010

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

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www.ico.org
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

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