What Are the Odds

With recent Boeing 737 crashes, CHS students consider everyday fears, probability of events

Just six minutes after takeoff, Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 crashed on March 10, and all

157 people on board died. This was the second crash of a Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft in under

six months.

One in 11 Million

Despite the headlines, Tyler Miller, pilot-in-training and senior, said flying is still safe

and at any given moment, hundreds of thousands of people are in the air experiencing no

problems at all.

Furthermore, he said these recent crashes have not hindered his passion for aviation.

“I would say the statistics on the chance of dying in a plane crash is, (from what) I've

heard, numbers such as one in 11 million, like these crazy numbers,” he said. “It's a good thing

that there's awareness for these crashes, but what shouldn't happen is being scared of flying

because it's not dangerous. There's a higher chance of, if it's rainy or thunderstorming, getting

struck by lightning getting into your car and driving to the airport, than dying while flying on

that flight you're (on).”

Moreover, in the Aviation Safety Network’s 2018 accident report, 2018 was reported to

be one of the safest years for commercial aviation ever.

Nevertheless, with the recent high-profile incidents, nations such as Canada, China and

the United States have moved to ground the new aircraft, according to CBS News.

Miller said much of the fear and panic surrounding the Boeing 737 crashes may be

attributed to the widespread media coverage.

 AP Statistics teacher Matt Wernke said while he personally does not know much about

the recent crashes, he agrees with the statement that media may have a role in spreading fear.

“When a crash happens and...when (157) people die at once, it becomes news

apparently...It's all over TV and the Internet and everybody talks about it and we do stories about

it in the newspaper,” he said. “When two people die in a car crash, it may not even make it on the

news station.”

According to Wernke, the fear of flying may also stem from how rare flying is compared

to other activities like driving or being outside on a rainy day.

“I think we do have this fear of things that we don't do often...Things we do all the time,

we overlook because we think, ‘I drove the car a thousand times today or a thousand times in a

month; it's unlikely that I'm going to (crash)...’ But flying, we do so rarely that for some reason

we've attached this stigma that (we could crash) even though it's less likely (than crashing in a

car),” he said.

Indeed, the Association for Safe International Road Travel found in its annual global road

crash report that nearly 3,287 deaths occur every day as a result of car crashes, with a total of

1.25 million deaths every year. In the United States alone, numbers reach up to 37,000 a year.

According to Miller and Wernke, this disconnect between the research and people’s

perceptions of probability may be a result of not only media but also personal experience.

A Sense of Control

Part of that comes from passengers’ lack of knowledge regarding flight.

“As a pilot, almost all (pilots) feel like they're safe in an airplane because they know how

to fly. They know how the systems work or they're flying themselves, so they have that
perceived sense of control. When you're a passenger, especially if you're not educated in how the

airlines and aviation industry works, things can become irrational,” Miller said.

Wernke added that it isn’t just about educating the public on the probability or mechanics

of a plane, but rather enabling the public to recognize their own fears and overcome them.

Wernke said, “I think a lot of times it's perception over reality. It doesn't matter if it's

safe. (If) nobody believes it's safe, no one's going to do it...People are more fearful (of) flying

than they are of driving. It's a fear of the unknown that gets people.”

Zach Ullom, pilot-in-training and senior, said he used to be terrified of turbulence and felt

like the plane would crash because he didn’t understand the mechanics, but after learning how to

fly himself, he said that fear dissipated. Furthermore, he said he believes the more experience

people have with flying, the less negative stigma will surround the experience.

“You generally see (with) people that have a lot of business trips (that) they're not really

(scared of flying); they don't have that irrational fear because they fly out a lot,” Ullom said.

“And I think the more often people are going to fly, especially with these new routes, that fear is

going to die down.”

Miller said he believes passengers should also understand the extensive training pilots go

through.

“These pilots go through all this training. They need, I believe now, at least 1,500 hours

of flying time before they're even allowed to fly for the airlines,” Miller said. “It's still a very

safe form of traveling, and it's continually getting better.”

Ullom said he believes a potential solution to the fear of flying is to educate passengers to

help alleviate the stigma against flying.

 Ullom said, “It's important to just educate the public and take into consideration their

fears and maybe explaining to them what could potentially mean trouble so they don't have the

same kind of fear I did.”