Assignment 1

Spring Semester 2019

ES 202 - Engineering Statistics

1. A system contains two components, A and B. The system will function only if both
components function. The probability that A functions is 0.98, the probability that
B functions is 0.95, and the probability that either A or B functions is 0.99. What
is the probability that the system functions?

Answer: 0.94

2. A drag racer has two parachutes, a main and a backup, that are designed to bring
the vehicle to a stop after the end of a run. Suppose that the main chute deploys
with probability 0.99 and that if the main fails to deploy, the backup deploys with
probability 0.98.

(a) What is the probability that one of the two parachutes deploys?
(b) What is the probability that the backup parachute deploys?

Answer: (a) 0.9998 (b) 0.0098

3. A system contains two components, C and D, connected in parallel as shown in the

diagram:

Assume C and D function independently. For the system to function, either C or

D must function.

(a) If the probability that C fails is 0.08 and the probability that D fails is 0.12,
find the probability that the system functions.
(b) If both C and D have probability p of failing, what must the value of p be so
that the probability that the system functions is 0.99?
(c) If three components are connected in parallel, function independently, and
each has probability p of failing, what must the value of p be so that the
probability that the system functions is 0.99?
(d) If components function independently, and each component has probability 0.5
of failing, what is the minimum number of components that must be connected
in parallel so that the probability that the system functions is at least 0.99?

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 Answer: (a) 0.9904 (b) 0.1 (c) 0.2154 (d) 7
4. There are three boxes. One box contains two gold coins; one box contains two silver
coins; and one box contains one gold and one silver coin. A box is picked uniformly
at random. A coin is picked from the box and it is gold. What is the probability
that the other coin in the box is also gold?
2
Answer:
3
5. Find a simple expression for P (A|B) under the following conditions:
(a) A and B are disjoint.
(b) A = B.
(c) A implies B, that is A ⊂ B.
(d) B implies A, that is B ⊂ A.
P (A)
Answer: (a) 0 (b) 1 (c) (d) 1
P (B)
6. (a) True or false: P (A|B) + P (A|B c ) = 1. Either show it true for any event A
and B or exhibit a counter-example.
(b) True or false: P (A|B) + P (Ac |B) = 1. Either show it true for any event A
and B or exhibit a counter-example.
Answer: (a) False (b) True
7. Bob is taking a test. There are two questions he is stumped on and he decides to
guess. Let A be the event that he gets the first question right; let B be the event
he gets the second question right.
(a) Obtain an expression for p1 , the probability that he gets both questions right
conditional on getting the first question right.
(b) Obtain an expression for p2 , the probability that he gets both questions right
conditional on getting either of the two questions right (A or B).
P (A ∩ B) P (A ∩ B)
Answer: (a) p1 = ; (b) p2 =
P (A) P (A ∪ B)
8. Suppose P (A) = 1/2, P (B c |AC) = 1/3 and P (C|A) = 1/4. Find P (ABC).
1
Answer:
12
9. Give a formula for P (A|B c ) in terms of P (A), P (B), and P (AB) only.

P (A) − P (A ∩ B)
Answer: P (A|B c ) =
1 − P (B)
10. Flip two coins. Let A be the event that the first coin comes up heads; B the event
that the second comes up heads; and C the event that both coins come up the
same, either heads or tails. Check that the three events are pairwise independent
but they are not mutually independent.

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11. The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs on time is P (D) = 0.83;
the probability that it arrives on time is P (A) = 0.82; and the probability that it
departs and arrives on time is P (D ∩ A) = 0.78. Find the probability that a plane
(a) arrives on time, given that it departed on time.
(b) departed on time, given that it has arrived on time.
(c) arrives on time, given that it did not depart on time.
Answer: (a) 0.94 (b) 0.95 (c) 0.24
12. A fair coin is tossed. If a head turns up, a fair die is tossed; if a tail turns up, two
fair dice are tossed. What is the probability that the face (or the sum of the faces)
showing on the die (or the dice) is equal to 6?
11
Answer:
72
13. Urn I contains three red chips and one white chip. Urn II contains two red chips and
two white chips. One chip is drawn simultaneously from each urn and transferred
to the other urn. Then a chip is drawn from the first urn. What is the probability
that the chip ultimately drawn from urn I is red?
11
Answer:
16
14. An urn contains forty red chips and sixty white chips. Six chips are drawn out and
discarded, and a seventh chip is drawn. What is the probability that the seventh
chip is red?

Answer: 0.4
15. A biased coin, twice as likely to come up heads as tails, is tossed once. If it shows
heads, a chip is drawn from urn I, which contains three white chips and four red
chips; if it shows tails, a chip is drawn from urn II, which contains six white chips
and three red chips. Given that a white chip was drawn, what is the probability
that the coin came up tails?
7
Answer:
16
16. Myra and Carlos are summer interns working as proofreaders for a local newspaper.
Based on aptitude tests, Myra has a 50% chance of spotting a hyphenation error,
while Carlos picks up on that same kind of mistake 80 % of the time. Suppose the
copy they are proofing contains a hyphenation error. What is the probability it
goes undetected?

Answer: 0.1
17. There is a 60 percent chance that the event A will occur. If A does not occur, then
there is a 10 percent chance that event B will occur. What is the probability that
at least one of the events A or B occurs?

Answer: 0.64

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18. There are two local factories that produce microwaves. Each microwave produced
at factory A is defective with probability 0.05, whereas each one produced at fac-
tory B is defective with probability 0.01. Suppose you purchase two microwaves
that were produced at the same factory, which is equally likely to have been either
factory A or factory B. If the first microwave that you check is defective, what is
the conditional probability that the other one is also defective?
13
Answer:
300
19. In answering a question on a multiple-choice test, a student either knows the answer
or she guesses. Let p be the probability that she knows the answer and 1-p the
probability that she guesses. Assume that a student who guesses at the answer will
be correct with probability 1/m, where m is the number of multiple-choice alter-
natives. What is the conditional probability that a student knew the answer to a
question given that she answered it correctly?
mp
Answer:
1 + (m − 1)p
20. Prove that for any two sets A and B with positive probabilities:


(a) If P r (A|B) = P r A|B̄ , then A and B are independent.



(b) If P r (A|C) > P r (B|C), and P r A|C̄ > P r B|C̄ , then A and B are
independent.
(c) If P r(A|B) < P r(A), show that P r(B|A) < P r(B).

Hint: Use the law of total probability.