Tiempo Yt SES (0.4) et SES (0.

6) et
I 77.4 77.4 0.0 77.4 0.0
1986 II 88.8 77.40 11.4 77.4 11.4
III 92.1 81.96 10.1 84.24 7.9
IV 79.8 86.02 -6.2 88.96 -9.2
I 77.5 83.53 -6.0 83.46 -6.0
1987 II 89.1 81.12 8.0 79.88 9.2
III 92.4 84.31 8.1 85.41 7.0
IV 80.1 87.55 -7.4 89.61 -9.5
I 74.7 84.57 -9.9 83.90 -9.2
1988 II 185.2 80.62 104.6 78.38 106.8
III 162.4 122.45 39.9 142.47 19.9
IV 178.1 138.43 39.7 154.43 23.7
I 129.1 154.30 -25.2 168.63 -39.5
1989 II 158.4 144.22 14.2 144.91 13.5
III 160.6 149.89 10.7 153.01 7.6
IV 138.7 154.17 -15.5 157.56 -18.9
I 127.2 147.98 -20.8 146.24 -19.0
1990 II 149.8 139.67 10.1 134.82 15.0
III 151.7 143.72 8.0 143.81 7.9
IV 132.9 146.91 -14.0 148.54 -15.6
I 103 141.31 -38.3 139.16 -36.2
1991 II 136.8 125.98 10.8 117.46 19.3
III 141.3 130.31 11.0 129.07 12.2
IV 123.5 134.71 -11.2 136.41 -12.9
I 107.3 130.22 -22.9 128.66 -21.4
1992 II 136.1 121.05 15.0 115.84 20.3
III 138.6 127.07 11.5 128.00 10.6
IV 123.7 131.68 -8.0 134.36 -10.7
I 106.1 128.49 -22.4 127.96 -21.9
1993 II 144.4 119.53 24.9 114.85 29.6
III 156.1 129.48 26.6 132.58 23.5
IV 138.2 140.13 -1.9 146.69 -8.5
I 111.8 139.36 -27.6 141.60 -29.8
1994 II 149.8 128.33 21.5 123.72 26.1
III 158.5 136.92 21.6 139.37 19.1
IV 141.8 145.55 -3.8 150.85 -9.0
I 119.1 144.05 -25.0 145.42 -26.3
1995 II 158 134.07 23.9 129.63 28.4
III 170.4 143.64 26.8 146.65 23.7
IV 151.8 154.35 -2.5 160.90 -9.1
 I 127.4 153.33 -25.9 155.44 -28.0
1996 II 178.2 142.96 35.2 138.62 39.6
III 189.3 157.05 32.2 162.37 26.9
IV 169.5 169.95 -0.5 178.53 -9.0
I 151.4 169.77 -18.4 173.11 -21.7
1997 II 187.2 162.42 24.8 160.08 27.1
III 199.2 172.33 26.9 176.35 22.8
IV 181.4 183.08 -1.7 190.06 -8.7
I 224.9 182.41 42.5 184.86 40.0
1998 II 317.7 199.40 118.3 208.89 108.8
III 341.4 246.72 94.7 274.17 67.2
IV 300.7 284.59 16.1 314.51 -13.8
I 244.9 291.04 -46.1 306.22 -61.3
1999 II 333.4 272.58 60.8 269.43 64.0
III 370 296.91 73.1 307.81 62.2
IV 326.7 326.15 0.6 345.12 -18.4
2000 I 326.37 -326.4 334.07 -334.1
 0.4
Alpha 0.6
 Tiempo Yt Valor Suavizado (0.4) Error et
I 77.4 77.40 0
1986 II 88.8 77.40 11.40
III 92.1 81.96 10.14
IV 79.8 86.02 -6.22
I 77.5 83.53 -6.03
1987 II 89.1 81.12 7.98
III 92.4 84.31 8.09
IV 80.1 87.55 -7.45
I 74.7 84.57 -9.87
1988 II 185.2 80.62 104.58
III 162.4 122.45 39.95
IV 178.1 138.43 39.67
I 129.1 154.30 -25.20
1989 II 158.4 144.22 14.18
III 160.6 149.89 10.71
IV 138.7 154.17 -15.47
I 127.2 147.98 -20.78
1990 II 149.8 139.67 10.13
III 151.7 143.72 7.98
IV 132.9 146.91 -14.01
I 103 141.31 -38.31
1991 II 136.8 125.98 10.82
III 141.3 130.31 10.99
IV 123.5 134.71 -11.21
I 107.3 130.22 -22.92
1992 II 136.1 121.05 15.05
III 138.6 127.07 11.53
IV 123.7 131.68 -7.98
I 106.1 128.49 -22.39
1993 II 144.4 119.53 24.87
III 156.1 129.48 26.62
IV 138.2 140.13 -1.93
I 111.8 139.36 -27.56
1994 II 149.8 128.33 21.47
III 158.5 136.92 21.58
IV 141.8 145.55 -3.75
I 119.1 144.05 -24.95
1995 II 158 134.07 23.93
III 170.4 143.64 26.76
IV 151.8 154.35 -2.55
I 127.4 153.33 -25.93
1996 II 178.2 142.96 35.24
 III 189.3 157.05 32.25
IV 169.5 169.95 -0.45
I 151.4 169.77 -18.37
1997 II 187.2 162.42 24.78
III 199.2 172.33 26.87
IV 181.4 183.08 -1.68
I 224.9 182.41 42.49
1998 II 317.7 199.40 118.30
III 341.4 246.72 94.68
IV 300.7 284.59 16.11
I 244.9 291.04 -46.14
1999 II 333.4 272.58 60.82
III 370 296.91 73.09
IV 326.7 326.15 0.55
2000 I - 326.37
Totales 622.42
 (et) et^2 (et)/Yt et/Yt
0 0 0.000 0.000 200
11.40 129.96 0.13 0.13
10.14 102.82 0.11 0.11 180
6.22 38.64 0.08 -0.08
6.03 36.36 0.08 -0.08 160
7.98 63.72 0.09 0.09
140
8.09 65.44 0.09 0.09
7.45 55.45 0.09 -0.09
120
9.87 97.37 0.13 -0.13
104.58 10936.83 0.56 0.56 100
39.95 1595.81 0.25 0.25
39.67 1573.59 0.22 0.22 80
25.20 634.98 0.20 -0.20
14.18 201.09 0.09 0.09 60
10.71 114.67 0.07 0.07
40
15.47 239.47 0.11 -0.11
20.78 432.02 0.16 -0.16
20
10.13 102.60 0.07 0.07
7.98 63.64 0.05 0.05 0
14.01 196.38 0.11 -0.11 0 2 4 6 8

38.31 1467.51 0.37 -0.37

10.82 116.97 0.08 0.08
10.99 120.76 0.08 0.08
11.21 125.59 0.09 -0.09
22.92 525.51 0.21 -0.21
15.05 226.371271 0.111 0.111
11.53 132.88 0.08 0.08
7.98 63.74 0.06 -0.06 MAD 24.013
22.39 501.32 0.21 -0.21
24.87 618.31 0.17 0.17 MSE 1174
26.62 708.60 0.17 0.17
1.93 3.72 0.01 -0.01 RMSE 34.26
27.56 759.39 0.25 -0.25
21.47 460.78 0.14 0.14 MAPE 0.140
21.58 465.67 0.14 0.14
3.75 14.08 0.03 -0.03 MPE 0.0352
24.95 622.57 0.21 -0.21
23.93 572.61 0.15 0.15
26.76 715.96 0.16 0.16
2.55 6.48 0.02 -0.02
25.93 672.22 0.20 -0.20
35.24 1242.11 0.20 0.20
 32.25 1039.82 0.17 0.17
0.45 0.20 0.00 0.00
18.37 337.51 0.12 -0.12
24.78 613.91 0.13 0.13
26.87 721.80 0.13 0.13
1.68 2.82 0.01 -0.01
42.49 1805.56 0.19 0.19
118.30 13993.74 0.37 0.37
94.68 8963.75 0.28 0.28
16.11 259.41 0.05 0.05
46.14 2128.55 0.19 -0.19
60.82 3698.86 0.18 0.18
73.09 5342.29 0.20 0.20
0.55 0.31 0.00 0.00

1344.71 65732.51 7.86 1.97

4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

14%

3.52%
 Tiempo Yt Valor Suavizado (0.6) Error et
I 77.4 77.40 0
1986 II 88.8 77.40 11.40
III 92.1 84.24 7.86
IV 79.8 88.96 -9.16
I 77.5 83.46 -5.96
1987 II 89.1 79.88 9.22
III 92.4 85.41 6.99
IV 80.1 89.61 -9.51
I 74.7 83.90 -9.20
1988 II 185.2 78.38 106.82
III 162.4 142.47 19.93
IV 178.1 154.43 23.67
I 129.1 168.63 -39.53
1989 II 158.4 144.91 13.49
III 160.6 153.01 7.59
IV 138.7 157.56 -18.86
I 127.2 146.24 -19.04
1990 II 149.8 134.82 14.98
III 151.7 143.81 7.89
IV 132.9 148.54 -15.64
I 103 139.16 -36.16
1991 II 136.8 117.46 19.34
III 141.3 129.07 12.23
IV 123.5 136.41 -12.91
I 107.3 128.66 -21.36
1992 II 136.1 115.84 20.26
III 138.6 128.00 10.60
IV 123.7 134.36 -10.66
I 106.1 127.96 -21.86
1993 II 144.4 114.85 29.55
III 156.1 132.58 23.52
IV 138.2 146.69 -8.49
I 111.8 141.60 -29.80
1994 II 149.8 123.72 26.08
III 158.5 139.37 19.13
IV 141.8 150.85 -9.05
I 119.1 145.42 -26.32
1995 II 158 129.63 28.37
III 170.4 146.65 23.75
IV 151.8 160.90 -9.10
I 127.4 155.44 -28.04
1996 II 178.2 138.62 39.58
 III 189.3 162.37 26.93
IV 169.5 178.53 -9.03
I 151.4 173.11 -21.71
1997 II 187.2 160.08 27.12
III 199.2 176.35 22.85
IV 181.4 190.06 -8.66
I 224.9 184.86 40.04
1998 II 317.7 208.89 108.81
III 341.4 274.17 67.23
IV 300.7 314.51 -13.81
I 244.9 306.22 -61.32
1999 II 333.4 269.43 63.97
III 370 307.81 62.19
IV 326.7 345.12 -18.42
2000 I - 334.07
Totales 427.78
 (et) et^2 (et)/Yt et/Yt
0 0 0.000 0.000 200
11.40 129.96 0.13 0.13
7.86 61.78 0.09 0.09 180
9.16 83.83 0.11 -0.11
5.96 35.55 0.08 -0.08 160
9.22 84.92 0.10 0.10
140
6.99 48.80 0.08 0.08
9.51 90.36 0.12 -0.12
120
9.20 84.68 0.12 -0.12
106.82 11410.32 0.58 0.58 100
19.93 397.11 0.12 0.12
23.67 560.32 0.13 0.13 80
39.53 1562.75 0.31 -0.31
13.49 181.91 0.09 0.09 60
7.59 57.68 0.05 0.05
40
18.86 355.78 0.14 -0.14
19.04 362.70 0.15 -0.15
20
14.98 224.46 0.10 0.10
7.89 62.30 0.05 0.05 0
15.64 244.70 0.12 -0.12 0 2 4 6 8

36.16 1307.34 0.35 -0.35

19.34 373.93 0.14 0.14
12.23 149.69 0.09 0.09
12.91 166.57 0.10 -0.10
21.36 456.35 0.20 -0.20
20.26 410.266273 0.149 0.149
10.60 112.40 0.08 0.08
10.66 113.62 0.09 -0.09 MAD 24.554
21.86 478.02 0.21 -0.21
29.55 873.47 0.20 0.20 MSE 1079
23.52 553.28 0.15 0.15
8.49 72.10 0.06 -0.06 RMSE 32.85
29.80 887.83 0.27 -0.27
26.08 680.24 0.17 0.17 MAPE 0.147
19.13 366.05 0.12 0.12
9.05 81.85 0.06 -0.06 MPE 0.0188
26.32 692.68 0.22 -0.22
28.37 805.00 0.18 0.18
23.75 564.01 0.14 0.14
9.10 82.82 0.06 -0.06
28.04 786.25 0.22 -0.22
39.58 1566.89 0.22 0.22
 26.93 725.42 0.14 0.14
9.03 81.48 0.05 -0.05
21.71 471.35 0.14 -0.14
27.12 735.26 0.14 0.14
22.85 521.95 0.11 0.11
8.66 75.02 0.05 -0.05
40.04 1602.83 0.18 0.18
108.81 11840.52 0.34 0.34
67.23 4519.29 0.20 0.20
13.81 190.71 0.05 -0.05
61.32 3760.62 0.25 -0.25
63.97 4092.22 0.19 0.19
62.19 3867.37 0.17 0.17
18.42 339.47 0.06 -0.06

1375.00 60444.08 8.21 1.05

4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

14.7%

1.9%
Tiempo Galones SES (0.5) et
1 19.39 20 -0.6
2 18.96 19.70 -0.7
3 18.2 19.33 -1.1 Alpha
4 17.89 18.76 -0.9
5 18.43 18.33 0.1
6 19.98 18.38 1.6
7 19.51 19.18 0.3
8 20.63 19.34 1.3
9 19.78 19.99 -0.2
10 21.25 19.88 1.4
11 21.18 20.57 0.6
12 22.14 20.87 1.3
13 21.51 -21.5
0.5