RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19 07 MAY 2019

ICICI Bank
BUY
All is (more or less) well INDUSTRY BANKS
While slippages for the qtr were higher vs. expected, the  Overall NIMs improved ~30bps QoQ to 3.7%. The CMP (as on 06 May 2019) Rs 401
overall stress declined, keeping the bank’s prospects improvement was optical to the extent of ~25bps, as Target Price Rs 454
remain largely unchanged. Maintain (2.0x Mar-21 core NII included int. on IT refund of ~Rs 4.1bn. Ex., the one-
Nifty 11,598
ABV of Rs 172 and sub-value of Rs 109). off, NIMs improved ~7bps QoQ led by a yield expansion
and contained CoF. Further this was, despite a 200bps Sensex 38,600
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE QUARTER
drop in the domestic CD ratio. We have assumed NIMs KEY STOCK DATA
 After dipping significantly in 3Q, slippages were up of 3.45% over FY19-21E. Bloomberg ICICIBC IN
~70% QoQ to ~Rs 35.5bn i.e.2.47% vs. 1.5% QoQ. This
No. of Shares (mn) 6,447
incl. an exposure of ~Rs 8.5bn to Renuka Sugars, which  Near term outlook: Mixed performance should keep in
is currently servicing its debt (might be upgraded in the stock range bound. MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 2,587/37,282
FY20). W/Os were significantly higher at ~Rs 73.3bn 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 6,822
STANCE
(+~2.1/2.4x), leading to GNPA decline of ~10% QoQ (Rs STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)
463bn, 6.7%). ~69% of corp slippages were from the BB Structural changes at the bank are increasingly evident, as 52 Week high / low Rs 411/257
and below rated book (O/s 2.99%). The mgt guided for the bank continues to re-orient itself towards retail
3M 6M 12M
a spike in agri related slippages in FY20E (KCC related, lending (~60% of the book). Shrinking pools of identified
Absolute (%) 11.7 13.7 41.9
3% of the book). We have factored in slippages of stress and low rated corporate loans will insulate the
Relative (%) 7.3 3.3 31.3
~1.95% over FY19-21E. Resolutions in NCLT cases can bank from asset quality shocks.
provide additional surprises (positive). SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)
A consistent improvement in core operating parameters
Dec-18 Mar-19
 Advances grew ~15/4%, driven by a 17% growth in (growth, NIMs, CASA) give us confidence that the bank is
domestic advances. The retail segment clocked a put, on its revival (of sorts) trajectory. The spurt of credit Promoters -
robust ~22/6% growth. Within retail, unsecured loans downgrades, may throw only a temporary spanner in its FIs & Local MFs 44.7 43.9
grew (43/11%) rapidly, on a small base. We have works. Its creditable franchise and reach gives it an edge FPIs 42.7 43.
factored in a loan CAGR of 16% over FY19-21E. over its peers. Public & Others 12.6 13.1
Financial Summary Pledged Shares - -
(Rs bn) 4QFY19 4QFY18 YoY (%) 3QFY19 QoQ (%) FY18 FY19P FY20E FY21E Source : BSE
Net Interest Income 76.2 60.2 26.5% 68.8 76.2 230.3 270.1 304.0 355.4
PPOP 62.3 75.1 -17.0% 61.5 62.3 247.4 234.4 270.3 322.3
PAT 9.7 10.2 -4.9% 16.0 9.7 67.8 33.6 110.0 155.0
EPS (Rs) 1.5 1.6 -5.0% 2.5 1.5 10.5 5.2 17.1 24.0 Darpin Shah
Core ROAE (%) 7.2 3.3 9.2 12.0 darpin.shah@hdfcsec.com
Core ROAA (%) 0.82 0.36 1.07 1.34 +91-22-6171-7328
Adj. BVPS (Rs) 111 138 153 172
P/ABV (x)# 2.84 2.19 1.94 1.70 Aakash Dattani
P/E (x)# 29.8 57.9 17.4 12.2 aakash.dattani @hdfcsec.com
Source: Bank, HDFC sec Inst Research; # adjusted for embedded value of subs +91-22-6171-7337
HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO> & Thomson Reuters

 Shrinking Pool of BB And Below Rated Exposures:
The BB and below rated book continued to shrink (Rs
175.3bn, 2.99% vs. 3.33% QoQ). ~10% (Rs 19bn) of
the opening BB and below rated book slipped into the
non-performing category. Additions to this book were
~6.1% (Rs 11.5bn) of the opening book, while ~3%
was upgraded during the qtr. Movement in this pool
will be keenly watched.
 Exposure to Stressed Sectors:
o The exposure to NBFCs/HFCs increased ~15/49%
QoQ to ~Rs 294/139bn. The mgt claims that this
is towards better-rated entities, with strong
parentage or backed by banks.
o Commentary possibly indicates, that the
exposure to Reliance ADAG entities have not yet
been included in the BB and below rated
segment. As a result of the recent rating
downgrade, this may flow into the BB and below
rated book.
o While refraining from explicitly stating its
exposure towards Jet Airways, the mgt said that
it would not incur further credit costs on the
exposure, as it has been recognised and provided
for.
o The bank’s exposure to IL&FS group entities was
ICICI BANK : RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19
~Rs 8.21bn (w/w ~Rs 2.76 is fund-based) against
which it had provided to the extent of ~75%.
o Exposure to the power sector was ~Rs 374bn
(3.3%) of which ~31% was classified as BB and
below rated. Further, this amount dipped ~23%
QoQ.
 Provisions Rise, May Remain Elevated: Provisions
rose for the 3rd consecutive qtr (+28% QoQ) to ~Rs
54.5bn. Consequently, calc. PCR increased ~220bps
QoQ to ~70.7% (highest amongst peers). Further the
coverage on IBC cases too remains healthy at ~73.9%.
The mgt has guided for provisions of 1.2-1.3% of avg.
assets for FY20, a mix of aging related and provisions
on fresh slippages. We have conservatively factored
in LLP of avg. 1.9% over FY19-21E.
 Strong Deposit Franchise: Deposits grew ~16/8% to
~Rs 6.53tn, led by TDs at ~21/7%. CASA grew ~12/8%
to constitute ~49.6% (one of the best amongst peers)
of deposits, w/w SA grew 13/8%.
 Retail Fees Dominate, C-I Dips:
o Fees grew ~15/4% to ~Rs 31.78bn, w/w retail
fees were 74% vs. 73% QoQ.
o Opex grew ~20/9%, driven by a 10% QoQ rise in
staff costs (higher provision for retirement
benefits) and an ~8% QoQ growth in other opex.
Page | 2
 ICICI BANK : RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19

SOTP
Rs bn Per Share Rationale
ICICI Bank 2,220 345 2.0x Mar-21E ABV of Rs 172
ICICI Life Insurance 304 47 FY20 EV + 19.3x FY21E VNB
ICICI General Insurance 242 38 30xFY21E PAT
ICICI AMC 143 22 7% of FY21E AUM
ICICI UK 31 5 1x FY21E BV
ICICI Canada 41 6 1x FY21E BV
ICICI Housing Finance 22 3 1x FY21E BV
ICICI Sec 60 9 14x Mar-21E EPS of Rs 16.7
Others 32 5 I Ventures and others
Total Value Of Subsidiaries 875 136
Less: 20% Holdco Discount 175 27
Net Value Of Subsidiaries 700 109
Total Value 2,920 454
Current Value 2,583 401
Upside (%) 13.1 13.1
Source: HDFC sec Inst Research;

Page | 3
 ICICI BANK : RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19

Five Quarters At A Glance

Rs bn 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19 YoY Growth QoQ Growth
Ahead of estimates, includes int. on IT refund
Net Interest Income 60.2 61.0 64.2 68.8 76.2 26.5% 10.8%
Non-interest Income 56.8 38.5 31.6 38.8 36.2 -36.2% -6.7% of ~Rs 4.1bn
Treasury Income 26.9 7.7 (0.4) 4.8 1.6 -94.2% -67.4%
Operating Income 117.0 99.5 95.7 107.6 112.4 -3.9% 4.5% Fee income grew ~15/4%, w/w retail fees
Operating Expenses 41.9 41.5 43.2 46.1 50.1 19.6% 8.6% were ~74%, and treasury gains were
Pre Provision Profits (PPoP) 75.1 58.1 52.5 61.5 62.3 -17.0% 1.4% sequentially lower
Provisions And Contingencies 66.3 59.7 39.9 42.4 54.5 -17.7% 28.4%
PBT 8.9 (1.6) 12.6 19.0 7.8 -12.0% -58.9% Driven by a ~10% rise in staff costs and an
Provision For Tax (1.3) (0.4) 3.5 3.0 (1.9) 42.7% -163.2% ~8% rise in other opex
PAT 10.2 (1.2) 9.1 16.0 9.7 -4.9% -39.6%

Balance Sheet items/ratios Driven by TDs, at 21/7% YoY/QoQ

Deposits 5,610 5,469 5,587 6,068 6,529 16.4% 7.6%
CASA (%) 51.7 50.5 50.8 49.3 49.6 -207 bps 27 bps Avg. CASA dipped ~140bps QoQ to 44.6%
Advances 5,124 5,163 5,445 5,643 5,866 14.5% 4.0%
CD Ratio (%) 91.3 94.4 97.5 93.0 89.8 -149 bps -315 bps
Led by a 17/5% growth in domestic advances,
CAR (%) 18.4 18.4 17.8 17.2 16.9 -153 bps -26 bps
Tier I (%) 15.9 15.8 15.4 15.1 15.1 -83 bps -5 bps w/w retail advances grew ~22/6%
Profitability
Yield On Advances (%) 8.68 8.71 8.79 9.00 9.29 61 bps 29 bps
Transferred ~12.96bn to the Investment
Cost Of Funds (%) 4.93 4.99 5.00 5.14 5.20 27 bps 6 bps Fluctuation Reserve, resulting in a dip in Tier I
NIM (%) 3.24 3.19 3.30 3.40 3.72 48 bps 32 bps
Cost-Income Ratio (%) 35.8 41.6 45.2 42.9 44.5 877 bps 168 bps
NIMs were ~25bps higher QoQ due to int. on
Tax Rate (%) (14.8) 26.6 27.6 15.6 (24.0) -920 bps -3967 bps
IT refund; Adj. NIMs were up 7bps QoQ
Asset quality
Gross NPA (Rs bn) 540.6 534.6 544.9 515.9 462.9 -14.4% -10.3%
Net NPA (Rs bn) 278.9 241.7 220.9 162.5 135.8 -51.3% -16.5% Led by higher Corp and SME slippages; Corp &
Gross NPAs (%) 8.84 8.81 8.54 7.75 6.70 -214 bps -105 bps SME slippages stood at Rs 27.2bn w/w Rs
Net NPAs (%) 4.77 4.19 3.65 2.58 2.06 -271 bps -52 bps 18.8bn were from BB and below rated pool
Delinquency ratio (%) 12.37 3.14 2.35 1.51 2.47 -990 bps 96 bps
Calc. Coverage Ratio (%) 48.4 54.8 59.5 68.5 70.7 2225 bps 217 bps
Change In Estimates Reported coverage ratio stood ~80.3%, best
FY20E FY21E in class
Rs bn
Old New Change Old New Change
NII 300.8 304.0 1.1% 345.2 355.4 3.0%
PPOP 278.9 270.3 -3.1% 318.7 322.3 1.1%
PAT 121.5 110.0 -9.5% 159.8 155.0 -3.0%
Adj. BVPS (Rs) 143 153 7.0% 166 172 4.0%
Source: HDFC sec Inst Research

Page | 4
 ICICI BANK : RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19

The retail book (~60% of the Advances Grew By ~15/4% YoY/QoQ Advances Mix: Retail Continues To Gain Share
book) continued to gain Overseas Retail SME Domestic corporate
Advances (Rs bn) (LHS) Growth (YoY) (RHS) %
traction (+22/6%) Rs bn %
6,250 18.0
5,750
The overseas book dipped 16.0 29 28 29 28 28 28 28 27 27 27 27 26 25 25 24 24
5,250
14.0
~2/6% YoY/QoQ in INR terms 4,750
4,250 12.0

The domestic book grew 3,750 10.0 43 44 44 47 46 48 49

3,250 52 53 54 54 57 58 57 59 60
~17/5% 8.0
2,750
6.0
2,250
4.0 24 23 23 22 21 20 18
Domestic corp growth picked 1,750 16 15 15 14 13 12 13 12 11
up (+6/3% YoY/QoQ) 1,250 2.0

1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
Incrementally, 90% of the
Corp disbursals are rated A- Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
or above
Retail Loans Break-up: Robust Growth Continues In The Unsecured Book
Within the retail book, PL
4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
grew ~49/12% YoY/QoQ and (%)
FY16 FY17 FY17 FY17 FY17 FY18 FY18 FY18 FY18 FY19 FY19 FY19 FY19
CC grew ~31/8% Home 54.0 54.3 54.3 54.6 53.2 53.6 53.5 52.9 51.8 52.0 51.6 51.4 50.5
Vehicle 17.4 17.4 17.1 17.2 16.9 16.7 16.5 16.4 16.2 16.0 15.7 15.9 15.8
HLs continued to take up the Other secured 21.0 20.3 20.4 19.5 20.9 20.3 20.3 20.6 21.6 21.0 21.3 20.9 21.4
lion’s share of the retail book PL 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.4 6.8 7.2 7.5 8.0 8.3 8.8
at ~51% CC & Others 2.7 2.8 2.8 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.5
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
The Top 3 exposures, sector
wise were retail finance
(37.3%), banks (7.9%), and
financial services (7.3%)

The share of Top 20

borrowers as a % of total
exposure fell ~70bps QoQ to
~10.8%

Page | 5
 ICICI BANK : RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19

CASA deposits grew ~12/8% Deposits Grew ~16/8% YoY/QoQ CASA Ratio Improves 30bps QoQ, Unlike Peers
Deposits (Rs bn) (LHS) Chg (YoY) (RHS) CASA Chg (YoY) (RHS) CASA (%) - RHS
YoY/QoQ to form 49.6% of %
7,500 Rs bn 20.0 54.0
the total deposits % %
18.0 25.0
6,500 52.0
16.0
On an avg basis, CASA ratio 14.0 20.0 50.0
5,500
dipped ~140bps to 44.6% 12.0
15.0 48.0
4,500 10.0
46.0
SA grew ~13/8% YoY/QoQ 8.0
10.0
3,500 6.0
while CA grew ~8/9% 44.0
2,500 4.0 5.0 42.0
2.0
NIMs improved ~30bps QoQ 1,500 0.0 - 40.0
to 3.7%, as domestic NIMs

1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
improved ~40bps to 4.12%

The mgt attributed a ~25bps Source: Bank, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Bank, HDFC sec Inst Research
QoQ NIM improvement to int.
on IT refund of ~Rs 4.1bn
NIMs Improve Sequentially, Optically Fee Growth Led By Retail Fees (74% Of Total Fees)
Adj. for one-off, NIMs NIM Domestic NIM Foreign NIM (RHS) Fee income % loan (annu) Fee income Chg (YoY) (RHS)
improved ~7bps QoQ led by 4.4 % % 2.5 2.5
% % 18.0
higher yields and despite the 4.2 16.0
drop in domestic C-D ratio 2.0 2.0
4.0 14.0
3.8 1.5 12.0
Once again, overseas NIMs 1.5
3.6 10.0
plunged to a measly 3bps, 3.4 1.0 8.0
1.0
after an improvement in 3Q 3.2 6.0
0.5 4.0
3.0 0.5
An uptick in overseas NIMs 2.8 -
2.0
would be driven solely by - -
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19

recoveries

1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
Source: Bank, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Bank, HDFC sec Inst Research

Page | 6
 ICICI BANK : RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19

Fee income grew ~15/4% Fee Income Growth Sustains

4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
YoY/QoQ, w/w retail fees Rs bn
FY16 FY17 FY17 FY17 FY17 FY18 FY18 FY18 FY18 FY19 FY19 FY19 FY19
were ~74% vs. 73% QoQ Treasury 21.9 7.7 64.1 8.9 5.0 8.6 21.9 0.7 26.9 7.7 (0.4) 4.8 1.6
Fees 22.1 21.6 23.6 25.0 24.5 23.8 25.7 26.4 27.6 27.5 30.0 30.6 31.8
After dipping in 3Q, slippages Others 7.1 5.1 3.5 5.5 0.7 1.5 4.2 4.6 2.4 3.3 2.0 3.4 2.9
were up ~70% QoQ, driven by Total 51.1 34.3 91.2 39.4 30.2 33.9 51.9 31.7 56.8 38.5 31.6 38.8 36.2
a 2.7x QoQ rise in corp and % of
48.6 39.9 63.5 42.3 33.6 37.7 47.6 35.7 48.5 38.7 33.0 36.1 32.2
SME slippages, retail Total
Source: Bank, HDFC sec Inst Research
slippages were ~23% lower
QoQ
Slippages Up QoQ G/NNPAs Dip 105/52bps Sequentially
Corp slippages were Rs 27.2bn Slippages Restructured asset (incl. 5:25) GNPA (Rs bn) NNPA (Rs bn)
w/w slippages of Rs 18.8bn GNPA (%, RHS) NNPA (%, RHS)
0 600.0 10.0
were from the BB and below 9.0
rated book 500.0 8.0
0
400.0 7.0
6.0
The mgt indicated that retail 1 0
157 300.0 5.0
slippages may rise in FY20E 10 7 6 27 27 4.0
113 0 200.0
on a/c of KCC related 82 80
0 0 3.0
70 0
delinquencies 30 20 65 70 2.0
50 47 44 40 31 0 35 100.0
17 22 21 1.0
- -
NCLT exposures
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19

1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
List 1: Fund based Rs 37.53bn;
Non Fund based Rs 1.1bn and
a PCR of 91.7% Source : Bank, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Bank, HDFC sec Inst Research
List 2: Fund based Rs 66.54bn;
Non Fund based Rs 7.34bn Asset Quality Movement: Dip in GNPAs Led By Higher W/Offs
and a PCR of 63.8% 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Rs bn
FY16 FY17 FY17 FY17 FY17 FY18 FY18 FY18 FY18 FY19 FY19 FY19 FY19
Opening 211.5 262.2 271.9 325.5 380.9 425.5 431.5 444.9 460.4 540.6 534.6 544.9 515.9
Exposure to NCLT cases (Lists
Additions 70.0 82.5 80.3 70.4 112.9 49.8 46.7 43.9 157.4 40.4 31.2 20.9 35.5
1 & 2) fell 21% QoQ, w/w
Slippages (%) 6.44 7.46 7.11 6.17 9.80 4.29 3.95 3.55 12.37 3.14 2.35 1.51 2.47
funded exposure fell ~23% Recoveries 7.8 7.9 8.0 6.3 14.1 27.8 10.3 11.1 42.3 20.4 10.1 19.2 15.2
The coverage on these cases W/O 1.5 66.2 22.4 8.8 54.1 16.1 23.0 17.2 34.8 26.0 10.9 30.7 73.2
dipped ~320bps QoQ to Closing 272.2 270.6 321.8 380.9 425.5 431.5 444.9 460.5 540.6 534.6 544.9 515.9 462.9
~73.5% Source : Bank, HDFC sec Inst Research

Page | 7
 ICICI BANK : RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19

Peer Set Comparison

Mcap CMP TP ABV (Rs) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) ROAE (%) ROAA (%)
BANK Rating
(Rs bn) (Rs) (Rs) FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E
KMB # 2,690 1,410 BUY 1,481 207 237 272 44.9 35.1 28.2 5.55 4.77 4.08 12.8 14.0 15.0 1.69 1.75 1.76
ICICIBC# 2,587 401 BUY 454 138 153 173 57.9 17.4 12.0 2.19 1.94 1.69 3.3 9.2 12.1 0.36 1.08 1.34
AXSB 1,956 747 BUY 896 215 261 309 39.5 21.0 14.6 3.33 2.75 2.32 7.2 12.4 15.5 0.63 1.05 1.33
IIB 1,057 1,528 BUY 2,009 411 515 574 32.3 21.3 15.6 3.72 2.97 2.66 12.1 15.2 18.0 1.24 1.46 1.62
RBL 319 664 BUY 803 169 243 268 32.7 26.1 19.8 3.93 2.73 2.48 12.2 12.5 12.7 1.22 1.31 1.34
FB 197 100 NEU 98 57 65 74 16.7 12.7 9.6 1.75 1.55 1.36 9.3 11.3 13.6 0.79 0.89 1.00
CUB 144 197 BUY 244 60 70 81 20.9 17.9 15.2 3.27 2.82 2.41 15.3 15.4 15.6 1.59 1.57 1.54
KVB 63 79 NEU 77 47 46 58 36.5 19.2 10.9 1.69 1.71 1.36 2.8 5.2 8.9 0.25 0.45 0.71
DCBB 67 217 BUY 228 87 99 114 20.6 15.6 11.8 2.49 2.19 1.90 11.0 13.0 15.2 0.99 1.09 1.20
SBIN # 2,755 309 BUY 376 129 170 199 42.9 8.7 5.6 1.52 1.15 0.96 1.9 8.6 11.9 0.11 0.51 0.71
BOB 308 116 NEU 130 99 135 162 15.3 6.6 4.9 1.18 0.86 0.72 4.9 10.6 12.8 0.27 0.56 0.67
AUBANK 189 625 BUY 680 101 128 151 47.8 33.8 24.2 6.18 4.88 4.14 14.1 15.3 17.2 1.48 1.49 1.61
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research, # Adjusted for embedded value of subs

Page | 8
 ICICI BANK : RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19

Income Statement Balance Sheet

(Rs bn) FY17 FY18 FY19P FY20E FY21E (Rs bn) FY17 FY18 FY19P FY20E FY21E
Interest Earned 541.6 549.7 634.0 728.6 850.1 SOURCES OF FUNDS
Interest Expended 324.2 319.4 363.9 424.7 494.7 Share Capital 11.7 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9
Net Interest Income 217.4 230.3 270.1 304.0 355.4 Reserves 987.8 1,038.7 1,070.8 1,157.8 1,284.5
Other Income 195.0 174.2 145.1 167.9 194.0 Shareholders' Funds 999.4 1,051.5 1,083.7 1,170.7 1,297.4
Fee Income (CEB) 80.3 87.9 99.7 115.7 135.3 Savings 1,718.4 2,009.7 2,276.7 2,606.8 2,984.8
Treasury Income 86.2 57.9 13.7 17.5 20.5 Current 749.8 889.6 962.7 1,059.0 1,164.9
Total Income 412.4 404.5 415.3 471.9 549.4 Term Deposit 2,432.2 2,710.5 3,289.8 3,783.3 4,388.6
Total Operating Exp 147.6 157.0 180.9 201.6 227.1 Total Deposits 4,900.4 5,609.8 6,529.2 7,449.1 8,538.3
Employee Expense 57.3 59.1 68.1 75.7 84.1 Borrowings 1,475.6 1,828.6 1,653.2 1,818.6 2,045.9
PPOP 264.9 247.4 234.4 270.3 322.3 Other Liabilities 342.5 302.0 378.5 406.9 447.6
Provisions & Contingencies 152.1 171.1 196.6 137.8 128.5 Total Liabilities 7,717.9 8,791.9 9,644.6 10,845.2 12,329.1
Prov. For NPAs (Incl. Std Prov.) 143.5 145.2 192.1 135.3 126.0
PBT 112.8 76.3 37.8 132.5 193.8 APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Provision For Tax 14.8 8.6 4.1 22.5 38.8 Cash & Bank Balance 757.1 841.7 803.0 876.4 979.3
PAT 98.0 67.8 33.6 110.0 155.0 Investments 1,615.1 2,029.9 2,077.3 2,234.6 2,428.4
Source: Bank, HDFC sec Inst Research G-Secs 1,125.1 1,391.9 1,479.1 1,638.8 1,835.7
Advances 4,642.3 5,124.0 5,866.5 6,806.2 7,959.9
Fixed Assets 78.1 79.0 79.3 80.9 82.5
Other Assets 625.3 717.3 818.5 847.2 879.1
Total Assets 7,717.9 8,791.9 9,644.6 10,845.2 12,329.1
Source: Bank, HDFC sec Inst Research

Page | 9
 ICICI BANK : RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19

Key Ratios
FY17 FY18 FY19P FY20E FY21E FY17 FY18 FY19P FY20E FY21E
VALUATION RATIOS ASSET QUALITY
EPS (Rs) 16.8 10.5 5.2 17.1 24.0 Gross NPLs (Rs bn) 421.6 532.4 462.9 413.9 395.6
Earnings Growth (%) 0.8 (30.9) (50.4) 227.1 40.9 Net NPLs (Rs bn) 252.2 278.2 135.8 125.3 129.9
BVPS (Rs) 171.6 163.6 168.1 181.6 201.2 Gross NPLs (%) 7.89 8.84 6.70 6.08 4.97
Adj. BVPS (Rs) 110.6 110.7 137.7 153.1 172.5 Net NPLs (%) 4.20 4.77 2.06 1.84 1.63
DPS (Rs) 4.4 1.5 1.0 3.3 4.0 Slippages (%) 7.46% 5.86% 2.33% 2.00% 1.85%
ROAA (%) 1.31 0.82 0.36 1.07 1.34 Coverage Ratio (%) 40.2 47.7 70.7 69.7 67.2
ROAE (%) 10.0 7.2 3.3 9.2 12.0 Provision/Avg. Loans (%) 3.2 3.0 3.5 2.1 1.7
P/E (x) 19.0 29.8 57.9 17.4 12.2 ROAA TREE
P/ABV (x) 2.9 2.8 2.2 1.9 1.7 Net Interest Income 2.91% 2.79% 2.93% 2.97% 3.07%
P/PPOP (x) 1.8 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.6 Non-interest Income 2.61% 2.11% 1.57% 1.64% 1.67%
Dividend Yield (%) 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.8 1.0 Treasury Income 1.16% 0.70% 0.15% 0.17% 0.18%
PROFITABILITY Operating Cost 1.98% 1.90% 1.96% 1.97% 1.96%
Yield On Advances (%) 8.81 8.37 8.72 8.96 9.16 Provisions 2.04% 2.07% 2.13% 1.34% 1.11%
Yield On Investment (%) 7.07 6.35 6.23 6.25 6.25 Provisions For NPAs 1.97% 1.73% 2.05% 1.28% 1.05%
Cost Of Funds (%) 5.26 4.62 4.66 4.87 4.98 Tax 0.20% 0.10% 0.04% 0.22% 0.33%
Cost Of Deposits (%) 5.02 4.46 4.56 4.70 4.81 ROAA 1.31% 0.82% 0.36% 1.07% 1.34%
Core Spread (%) 3.55 3.74 4.07 4.09 4.18 Leverage (x) 7.87 8.05 8.63 9.09 9.39
NIM (%) 3.35 3.21 3.37 3.40 3.48 ROAE 10.33% 6.61% 3.15% 9.76% 12.56%
OPERATING EFFICIENCY Source: Bank, HDFC sec Inst Research
Cost/Avg. Asset Ratio (%) 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0
Cost-Income Ratio (Ex. Treasury) 45.2 45.3 45.0 44.4 42.9
BALANCE SHEET STRUCTURE
Loan Growth (%) 6.7 10.4 14.5 16.0 17.0
Deposit Growth (%) 16.3 14.5 16.4 14.1 14.6
C/D Ratio (%) 94.7 91.3 89.8 91.4 93.2
Equity/Assets (%) 12.9 12.0 11.2 10.8 10.5
Equity/Advances (%) 21.5 20.5 18.5 17.2 16.3
CASA (%) 50.4 51.7 49.6 49.2 48.6
Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR, %) 17.4 18.4 16.9 16.7 16.1
W/w Tier I CAR (%) 14.4 15.9 15.1 15.1 14.8

Page | 10
 ICICI BANK : RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19

RECOMMENDATION HISTORY
Date CMP Reco Target
ICICI Bank TP
500 8-May-18 290 BUY 377
6-Jul-18 272 BUY 377
450 29-Jul-18 293 BUY 359
9-Oct-18 311 BUY 386
400
27-Oct-18 323 BUY 418
350 8-Jan-19 368 BUY 428
31-Jan-19 365 BUY 425
300 9-Apr-19 387 BUY 443
7-May-19 401 BUY 454
250

200 Rating Definitions

BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period
Dec-18
Oct-18
Aug-18

Apr-19
Nov-18

Jan-19
Sep-18

Feb-19
May-18

May-19
Jun-18

Jul-18

Mar-19

NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period
SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period

Page | 11
 ICICI BANK : RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19

Disclosure:
We, Darpin Shah, MBA & Aakash Dattani, ACA, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my views about the subject
issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. I also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the
specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have
beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities
Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.
Any holding in stock –No
HDFC Securities Limited (HSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475.

Disclaimer:
This report has been prepared by HDFC Securities Ltd and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon
information obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its
accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document is for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their
securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this document is not, and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments.
This report is not directed to, or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or
other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, reproduction, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or what would subject HSL or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement
within such jurisdiction.
If this report is inadvertently send or has reached any individual in such country, especially, USA, the same may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. This document may not be reproduced,
distributed or published for any purposes without prior written approval of HSL.
Foreign currencies denominated securities, wherever mentioned, are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which could have an adverse effect on their value or price, or the income derived from them. In addition,
investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency risk.
It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. HSL may from time to time solicit from, or perform broking, or other services for, any company mentioned in this mail
and/or its attachments.
HSL and its affiliated company(ies), their directors and employees may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, and buy or sell the securities of the company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in
any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or
lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.
HSL, its directors, analysts or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this report,
including but not restricted to, fluctuation in the prices of shares and bonds, changes in the currency rates, diminution in the NAVs, reduction in the dividend or income, etc.
HSL and other group companies, its directors, associates, employees may have various positions in any of the stocks, securities and financial instruments dealt in the report, or may make sell or purchase or other
deals in these securities from time to time or may deal in other securities of the companies / organizations described in this report.

HSL or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve
months.
HSL or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from t date of this report for services in respect of managing or
co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction in the normal course of business.
HSL or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither HSL nor
Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or
brokerage service transactions. HSL may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.
Research entity has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. Research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. We have not received any
compensation/benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the Research Report.

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042 Phone: (022) 3075 3400 Fax: (022)
2496 5066
Compliance Officer: Binkle R. Oza Email: complianceofficer@hdfcsec.com Phone: (022) 3045 3600

HDFC Securities Limited, SEBI Reg. No.: NSE-INB/F/E 231109431, BSE-INB/F 011109437, AMFI Reg. No. ARN: 13549, PFRDA Reg. No. POP: 04102015, IRDA Corporate Agent License No.: HDF 2806925/HDF
C000222657, SEBI Research Analyst Reg. No.: INH000002475, CIN - U67120MH2000PLC152193
Mutual Funds Investments are subject to market risk. Please read the offer and scheme related documents carefully before investing.

Page | 12
 ICICI BANK : RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19

HDFC securities
Institutional Equities
Unit No. 1602, 16th Floor, Tower A, Peninsula Business Park,
Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel, Mumbai - 400 013
Board : +91-22-6171 7330 www.hdfcsec.com

Page | 13