Journal of Hazardous Materials 227–228 (2012) 88–96

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Journal of Hazardous Materials

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jhazmat

A comprehensive risk assessment framework for offsite transportation of

inflammable hazardous waste
Arup Das a , A.K. Gupta b,∗ , T.N. Mazumder a
a
Department of Architecture & Regional Planning, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, India
b
Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur 721302, West Bengal, India

h i g h l i g h t s

 Methodology for designing an accident index of links in a network based on a new aggregation operator.
 Impact assessment due to a volatile cloud explosion (VCE) showing share of adjoining population affected.
 Vulnerability assessment based on mortality and morbidity of adjoining population measured using disability adjusted life years (DALYs).

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: A framework for risk assessment due to offsite transportation of hazardous wastes is designed based on
Received 19 January 2012 the type of event that can be triggered from an accident of a hazardous waste carrier. The objective of this
Received in revised form 2 May 2012 study is to design a framework for computing the risk to population associated with offsite transporta-
Accepted 3 May 2012
tion of inflammable and volatile wastes. The framework is based on traditional definition of risk and is
Available online 11 May 2012
designed for conditions where accident databases are not available. The probability based variable in risk
assessment framework is substituted by a composite accident index proposed in this study. The frame-
Keywords:
work computes the impacts due to a volatile cloud explosion based on TNO Multi-energy model. The
Accident index
Risk assessment
methodology also estimates the vulnerable population in terms of disability adjusted life years (DALY)
Volatile cloud explosion which takes into consideration the demographic profile of the population and the degree of injury on
Mortality mortality and morbidity sustained.
Morbidity The methodology is illustrated using a case study of a pharmaceutical industry in the Kolkata metropoli-
tan area.
© 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
Increased consumption of consumer goods has led to increased
manufacturing activities. Many of the manufacturing activities not
only involve hazardous materials, but also generate sizeable quan-
tities of hazardous wastes. Transfer of all such hazardous wastes
generated to disposal facilities has been a major concern for stake-
holders in hazardous waste management and researchers [1–4].
The methodology for routing hazardous wastes should not only
take into account the attributes concerned with offsite transporta-
tion of the waste, but also consider the risk these wastes pose on
their immediate surroundings.
The risk due to offsite transportation of hazardous wastes is
dependent on the type of waste transferred, the mode of trans-
fer, the environmental conditions and the physical factors like
∗ Corresponding author. Tel.: +91 3222 283428; fax: +91 3222 255303.
E-mail addresses: arup.archi@gmail.com (A. Das), agupta@civil.iitkgp.ernet.in
(A.K. Gupta), taraknm@arp.iitkgp.ernet.in (T.N. Mazumder).
roads, and traffic characteristics of the route adopted. The risk
assessment framework can be broadly categorized under three cat-
egories, namely the traditional definition of risk, the alternative
definition of risk and the axiomatic approach to risk definition [5].
The traditional risk or the societal risk along a link (i–j) on a road
network is given by the product of the probability of occurrence of
an event (due to an accident) and the consequence of that event. It
can be estimated using Eq. (1).
Ri−j = pi−j × Ci−j (1)
where, Ri–j is the risk along a link joining two nodes i and j, pi–j is
the probability of occurrence of an event in the link between i–j
and Ci–j is the consequence of the event along the link, measured
in terms of population affected.
Traditional definition of risk has been widely used for risk
assessment during transportation of hazardous substances [6–11].
It estimates the probable outcomes of an event and is sim-
ple to compute. Alternative risk definitions can be further
classified into five sub-categories. The first three, i.e. incident

0304-3894/$ – see front matter © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2012.05.014
 A. Das et al. / Journal of Hazardous Materials 227–228 (2012) 88–96 89

probability, perceived risk and conditional probability risk defini- research has been carried out in past on determining of accident risk
tions depend on the probability of incidence of the event. Whereas, or accident probability. Fabiano et al. [10] had designed a similar
total exposed population and factored population definitions are index for predicting frequency of accidents based on un-weighted
devoid of the probability variable. Limited studies were based on multiplicative aggregation operator. Scott [16] had designed an
alternative risk computation [12,13]. Alternative risk definitions environment–accident index to evaluate the impact of hazardous
like incident probability method, total exposed population method chemicals (toxicity) during transportation or storage to aquatic
do not involve local area characteristics like traffic volume, road organisms in the vicinity of such facilities or roads. Griebe [17] had
conditions, road geometry, and congestion. Perceived risk method developed a model for predicting accidents along a road link as well
uses power function of consequences, where the value of the expo- as an intersection. The proposed model was represented by a cumu-
nent is subjectively assumed. Conditional risk method is non-linear lative product of fourteen road characteristics and a power function
in nature and is used for multiple hazardous substance transporta- of vehicle flow. Zheng and Liu [18] had identified the existing meth-
tion between a pair of origin–destination (O–D). ods available for forecasting occurrence of an accident. However, it
The axiomatic approach for risk definition does not define a risk was seen that most of the methods discussed had intrinsic reliance
assessment framework but instead proposes axioms for selection on historical data sets.
of models and path evaluation. All the risk assessment frame- The proposed AI would act as a proxy to the probability based
works discussed above satisfy these axioms except conditional risk parameter used in traditional risk assessment framework. The pro-
method. posed AI would take into account attributes, which can influence
However, the existing risk assessment frameworks heavily rely the occurrence of an event along a link, and give a quantitative
on the previous accident records for calculation of probability of assessment depicting the relative potential of occurrence of the
occurrence of an event. These framework also assume that the event. The composite index has been designed based on the prin-
entire population within the impact area is affected which can ciples of aggregation methods [19]. A new aggregation operator
lead to over estimation of risk. Moreover, the vulnerability of the proposed by Das et al. [20] has been used in this study and is shown
population is expressed only in terms of fatalities, overlooking the as Eq. (2).
significant number of people who are injured. This may lead to
n  n 1/n
under-estimation of the total risk incurred.  x i
An alternative risk assessment framework has been proposed AI = (2)
n
in this study. The next section will further discuss the proposed i
framework for risk assessment.
where xi is the sub-index value of the ith attribute used to compute
AI values.
2. Proposed risk assessment framework The values of AI are calculated individually for all constituent
links of a route in a road network. The potential of occurrence of
The risk assessment framework for any given event depends on an event in a route is different for all these constituent road links
three major aspects – the type of event, the probability of occur- of the route. The characteristics of a link, between two nodes in a
rence of that event, and the vulnerability of the subject due to the network, are taken as attributes for deriving AI. These attributes
impact caused by the event. The risk assessment framework pro- of the link can be grouped under two major heads, namely the
posed in this study is based on the traditional definition of risk. physical characteristics and the traffic characteristics. The quan-
The traditional risk definition framework has been used for vari- titative attributes under physical characteristics are width of the
ety of risk assessment ranging from natural disasters to man-made carriageway, and number of intersections in a link. The qualitative
disasters [14,15]. The highlights of the risk assessment framework attributes under the physical characteristics of a link are evaluated
proposed in this study are as follows: based on their potential negative impact and values adopted in this
study are given in Table 1.
i. A concept of accident index (AI) has been introduced to act as
a proxy for probability of occurrence of an event used in the
traditional definition of risk. Table 1
ii. Impact assessment due to an event (volatile cloud explosion, Description of qualitative attributes of a link and their respective scales.
fire, spills, etc.) caused by accident of a hazardous waste carrier. Sl. No. Description of attribute Attribute value
iii. Vulnerability assessment in the form of mortality and the mor-
a. Carriageway characteristics
bidity faced by the adjoining population due to the above
i One way link and divided carriageway 1
mentioned impact. ii Two way link and divided carriageway 2
iii One way link and un-divided carriageway 3
The methodology for risk assessment has been demonstrated iv Two way link and un-divided carriageway 4
with the help of a case study of a pharmaceutical manufacturing b. Surface condition (based on roughness)
unit in Kolkata metropolitan area (KMA). i Good 1
ii Fair 2
iii Poor 3
2.1. Calculation of accident index and accident potential c. On-street parking and encroachment in Right-of-Way (ROW)
i No parking and no encroachment 1
ii Parking and no encroachment 2
The probability of occurrence of an event is estimated based on
iii No Parking and encroachment 3
the availability of previous records and dedicated accident database iv Parking and encroachment 4
of hazardous waste carriers. However, if such records are not avail- d. Illumination (street lighting)
able the probability of occurrence of an event cannot be estimated. i Good 1
Most of the industrial regions in developing countries do not main- ii Adequate 2
iii Poor 3
tain such explicit accident database, this act as a major set-back in e. Signage & visual obstructions
the risk assessment framework. i Signage and no obstruction 1
The concept of AI has been proposed in this study to fill in the ii No signage and no obstruction 2
gap in risk assessment framework due to unavailability of histor- iii Signage and obstruction 3
iv No signage and obstruction 4
ical database on accidents of hazardous waste carriers. Significant
90 A. Das et al. / Journal of Hazardous Materials 227–228 (2012) 88–96

Width of carriageway
(m)

Physical Characteristics
Average speed in the
link (km/hr)

Share of non-motorized
vehicles (%)
Calculation of sub-index
V/C in the link for each attribute

Number of intersections
within alink

Aggregation of all the

Carriageway sub-indices
Characteristics
Traffic Characteristics

Surface condition of the

road

On-street parking and

encroachment of ROW

Level of Illumination

Signage & Visual

Obstructions

Fig. 1. Framework for assessment of accident index (AI).

The attributes used for indicating the traffic characteristics of a
link are share of non-motorized vehicles (intermixing of motorized
and non-motorized vehicles increase chances of accident), conges-
tion in the link given by V/C ratio (i.e. ratio between traffic volume
and the capacity for a given level of service of the link), and average
speed of vehicle along the link. The attributes and the methodology
to design an AI are represented in Fig. 1.
The AI is a decreasing scale index, i.e., higher the value of AI
more is the potential of occurrence of an incident. The attributes,
depending on nature of their distribution, have been normalized
accordingly. The AI values are computed using Eq. (2). However, the
values of AI cannot be compared for two links without taking into
account the length of the link. Moreover, the potential of occurrence
of an event along a link can be comparable for a long link having
low AI value and a small link with high AI value. Thus, the concept
of accident potential (AP) is introduced based on the AI values and
the link length. The potential of occurrence of an accident or AP
along a link is calculated by using Eq. (3).
Accident Potential (AP) in a link = AI × Length of the link
(3)
Thus, AP for a link represents the potential AI along the entire
length of a link in a network for a given type of hazardous event.
However, AP cannot be meaningfully interpreted in isolation, but it
can be of huge significance in comparing the propensity of accidents
in two or more links of a network.
water resources, fumes dispersing through air or fire pools. A
hazardous waste can possess one or multiple characteristics and
its impact can be varied. Studies conducted in past have usually
focused on the worst possible outcome for assessing the impact
[22].
In this study the focus is primarily on hazardous wastes which
are inflammable in nature. The outcomes of an accident involv-
ing inflammable hazardous waste are represented in the form of
event tree, as shown in Fig. 2. An event tree depicts all the possible
outcomes of an accident. It has been used in past [7,23] to depict
the outcomes due to spillage of hazardous material and liquefied
petroleum gas (LPG) respectively.
In Fig. 2, the event tree depicts the possible outcomes in case of
an accident of a hazardous waste carrier. This also includes events,
which do not have any significant adverse impact. For inflammable
waste the primary events can be a spill, a fire or an explosion. Sec-
ondary events from a spill may result in fire or formation of a vapor
cloud. This vapor cloud at times may be confined and result in a
vapor cloud explosion (VCE). A VCE is one of the most devastat-
ing outcomes of an accident involving flammable hazardous waste
[24]. However, this phenomenon is restricted primarily to volatile
organic compounds (VOC) which vaporize quickly when exposed
to ambient temperature.

3. Framework for impact assessment

The framework for determining the impact, due to an accident

involving hazardous waste should first consider all probable type of
events that can occur. The events that can possibly occur are deter-
mined by the type and characteristics of the waste that is being
transported. Hazardous waste can be characterized based on four
properties, namely flammability, toxicity, reactivity and corrosivity
[21]. The impact of each of the above mentioned characteristics are
different. The impact can be in the form of a spill contaminating Fig. 2. Event tree of an accident involving hazardous waste.
 A. Das et al. / Journal of Hazardous Materials 227–228 (2012) 88–96
Researches in the past have been conducted on routing based
on risk analysis for spillage of toxic wastes and their dispersion
through air [25]. Methodology to find the impact area of toxic gases
spilled is based on the casualties it may cause [26]. Consequences
of fire ball incidents were modeled incorporating meteorological
data [27,28] had studied the mechanism of boiling liquid expand-
ing vapor explosions (BLEVEs) and their consequences. Chakrabarti
and Parikh [22] had proposed a methodology for estimating the
impacts of BLEVE and unconfined vapor cloud explosion (UVCE)
for different hazardous chemicals and compared the results. Simi-
larly, the mechanism of VCE was also reported in previous studies
[29,30]. Methodology to measure their impact and predict conse-
quences were also studied [31–33]. This study will focus on the
impact assessment of a VCE. It would be used to design a method-
ology for comprehensive risk assessment for offsite transportation
of volatile and inflammable hazardous waste along a road link.
3.1. Impact due to volatile cloud explosion (VCE)
The types of events that can be expected during transportation
of inflammable hazardous waste have been represented as an event
tree, as shown in Fig. 2. As discussed in the previous section, this
study would concentrate on the impact of VCE during transporta-
tion hazardous waste along a particular road link.
Vapor clouds occur due to spillage of volatile, inflammable liquid
or gas from a storage container. The vapor cloud is heavier than air
and tends to settle along drains, under culverts, bridges, overhangs
of buildings, parked vehicles, etc. The cloud requires some time,
ranging from 5 min to 30 min [34] to accumulate in an obstructed
place in quiescent climatic conditions to form a charge consisting of
a stoichiometric mixture of air and inflammable vapor. This trapped
volume of un-dispersed charge when exposed to a source of igni-
tion can result in a VCE. It can cause extreme damage because of
the overpressure built up due to detonation and deflagration [26].
If human beings are exposed to such overpressure, it can lead to
deafness and even fatal consequences [35]. VCE can have signifi-
cant impact on adjoining built structure [36]. However, in this study
the impact on human population has been taken into account for
assessment.
The consequences of a blast due to a VCE can be estimated using
empirical methods like TNT (Tri-nitro toluene) equivalency method
and the TNO Multi-energy method [34,37]. The TNT equivalency
method primarily depends on the amount of inflammable material
present and assigns no importance to the inflammable material-
air mixture and its flammability limits. Moreover, TNT equivalency
models are suitable for blasts, which are of short duration and high
amplitude. Unlike VCE, which have longer duration and low ampli-
tude [34]. TNO Multi-energy method can predict the consequences
of a VCE more realistically than TNT equivalency method [30,38].
3.1.1. TNO Multi-energy method
The TNO Multi-energy method takes into consideration the vol-
ume of the cloud that is obstructed or is partially confined, unlike
TNT equivalent method. The obstructed vapor is assumed to form
a hemispherical stoichiometric mixture of vapor–air charge. There
are four major steps involved in calculating the impact caused due
to a VCE. The first step involves estimating the volume of the con-
fined portion of vapor cloud and calculating the total energy (E)
of the confined vapor cloud. The total energy generated from a
confined vapor cloud [34] is given by Eq. (4).
E = V × 3.5 × 106 J/m3
where, V is the volume of the confined vapor cloud.
91
The second step involves calculating the value of a dimension-
less scaled radius factor, R̄ [34] using Eq. (5).
 P 1/3
0
R̄ = R × (5)
E
where, R is the distance from the center of hemisphere (in meters);
P0 is the ambient atmospheric pressure (in N/m2 ).
The strength of the explosion is estimated in the third step. The
strength of the explosion varies from 1 to 10. The value has to be
assigned commensurate to the strength of an explosion (where 1
is used for a mild explosion and 10 signify a highest strength of
explosion for a given cloud). A value of 7 is commonly assumed
[34] for estimating the impact of VCE.
The final step for estimating the impact of VCE involves the cal-
culation of the overpressure (P ’ s ) using the Sach’s scaled side-on
overpressure curve for a given value of R̄ and strength of explosion
[33]. The side-on overpressure (P) for a given strength of explosion
and at a particular distance [34] is determined using Eq. (6).
P
Ps = (6)
P0
where, P0 is the ambient atmospheric pressure and P is the side-on
overpressure.
A case study of a hazardous waste carrier carrying distillation
residue (ethylene dichloride) from a pharmaceutical manufactur-
ing industry in Kolkata metropolitan area has been considered for
illustrating the proposed methodology for risk assessment.
Taking into consideration the prevalent practices, the capacity
of the carrier transporting hazardous waste from this unit has been
assumed to be 7 metric ton, which can accommodate 60 contain-
ers, each of 200 L capacity. In case of an accident of the carrier and
eventual spillage of the hazardous waste, a pool of the hazardous
waste would form on the ground. Assuming the depth of the pool
to be 1 cm, the evaporation rate (QR) of the hazardous waste from
the pool has been calculated by USEPA [39] and is given by Eq. (7).
(0.65 × 10−3 × U 0.78 × MW2/3 × A × VP)
QR = (7)
(8.314 × T )
where, U is the wind speed (m/s), MW is the molecular weight of
the substance spilled, A is the surface area of the pool (m2 ), VP is
the vapor pressure (N/m2 ) and T is the temperature of the released
substance (in K). In this study U is taken to be 3 m/s, MW of ethylene
dichloride is 98.96 × 10−3 kg/mol, VP (at 303 K) is 8617 N/m2 , and
T is 303 K.
Using the above data to calculate QR,
QR = 1.36 kg/s
Given the rate of evaporation, the entire consignment of volatile
hazardous waste could have evaporated in 1.8 h.
Assuming a scenario where 75% of the hazardous waste consign-
ment would spill and evaporate, the volume of vapor generated due
evaporation was calculated using the ideal gas law. The volume of
vapor generated was found to be 2826.3 m3 . Using Eq. (4) and the
value of V, the total energy (E) of the hazardous waste carried in
a given consignment (assuming the entire volume of hazardous
waste is spilled) is given by Eq. (4).
E = 3.5 × 106 × 2826.3 = 9892 × 106 J
Using Eq. (5), the value of the scaled radius factor (dimension-
less), i.e. R̄ can be calculated for different values of R. In this study
the overpressure has been determined for radius of 50 m and 100 m
from the center of the event. Thus, the values of R̄, calculated using
(4) Eq. (5), for radius 50 m and 100 m are 1.08 and 2.17, respectively.
The Sach’s scaled side-on overpressure curve is used to deter-
mine the value of overpressure (P’s ) for a given strength of the
92 A. Das et al. / Journal of Hazardous Materials 227–228 (2012) 88–96
Table 2
The side-on overpressure generated due to a VCE and its impact.
Sl. No. R (radius in m) R̄ (dimensionless)
1 50 1.08
2 100 2.17
50m
A 100m
Fig. 3. Impact of VCE on the adjoining areas.
A Impact area (50m) between A-B B B Impact area (50m) between B-C
Fig. 4. Impact area of two intersecting links.
explosion, i.e. 7, the value of side-on overpressure is determined, for
different radius from the center of VCE and is presented in Table 2.
The side-on overpressure generated at 50 m interval can cause
mortality as high as 50% [40]. The morbidity at 100 m interval can
be attributed to eardrum rupture. This has been computed using
Probit equation [40] as shown in Eq. (8).
Y = −12.6 + 1.524 × ln(P)
where, Y is the Probit variable and P is the side-on overpressure in
N/m2 .
At a distance of 100 m from the center of VCE, the side-on over-
pressure for the given case study will attain a Probit value of 4.91.
This would result in morbidity of as high as 50% due to eardrum
rupture [24] and the value reported in Table 2.
3.2. Impact assessment due to a VCE
The side-on overpressure developed from a VCE can be used to
determine the impact on the adjoining population along a link in a
K × C × e(r×a)
YLL = × [e−(r+ˇ)×(L+a) × {−(r + ˇ) × (L + a) − 1} − e−(r+ˇ)×a × {−(r + B) × a − 1}] + (1 − K) ×
(r + ˇ)
2 r
road network. The methodology for impact assessment along a road
link, as shown in Fig. 3, is explained in this section. The link consists
of two nodes A and B, where they can be either road intersections,
or any important point along the road link.
The impact on adjoining areas due to VCE can be graphically
represented as a set of circles of radius 50 m and another set of con-
centric circles of radius 100 m [41,42]. The inner circle represents
the zone having a side-on overpressure of not less than 50.7 psi.
The outer circle represents the zone which is impacted by a side-
on overpressure of not less than 14.2 psi. The locus resulting from
the series of continuous circles form an area which can be esti-
mated by parallel lines on either side of the center line of the circle,
at an offset of 50 m and 100 m, respectively. The impact area due to
a given side-on overpressure can be represented by a continuous
surface at an offset of 50 m or 100 m on either side of the center line
of a hypothetical link. At an intersection of two such links, an error
due to double-counting of the impact will take place.
To negate this problem impact area of one link is limited to one
half of the circle at the end point of the link, as shown in Fig. 4.
The vulnerable population residing within this impact zone can
P ’ s (dimensionless) P (side-on overpressure in psi) Impact
0.5 50.7 50% mortality
0.14 14.2 50% morbidity
be calculated by multiplying the impact area with the population
density within the impact area. The methodology for vulnerability
assessment is explained in the next section.
B
4. Vulnerability assessment due to VCE
The population present within the impact area along the link at
the time of an event is vulnerable to the potential hazardous out-
comes. As discussed in Table 2, the vulnerable population in 50 m
impact zone will have mortality rate not less than fifty percent [31].
C The vulnerable population in the 50–100 m impact zone (i.e. 50 m
beyond the 50 m impact zone) will have a morbidity rate of not less
than fifty percent, primarily due to ear-drum rupture [24]. The total
vulnerability along a route in a region is given by the expected val-
ues of mortality and morbidity for a given event. Expected values
of mortality and morbidity for a VCE cannot be summed up to rep-
resent the vulnerability along a link. The mortality and morbidity
values are converted to disability adjusted life years (DALY) units,
which make them fit for aggregation. The concept of DALY and the
conversion mechanism has been explained in the next section.
4.1. Aggregating vulnerability using disability adjusted life years
(8) (DALY) method
The concept of DALY was proposed by Murray and Lopez and
cited in Rushby and Hanson [43], to measure the Global burden of
disease. It has been extensively used by the World Health Organiza-
tion [44,45]. DALY is one of the widely used methods for estimating
the value of mortality and morbidity (taken together) due to an
accident. It does not use notional monetary values to judge human
lives, and also incorporates the demographic features (like age, sex)
of the population concerned. DALY constitutes of two components
years of life lost (YLL) and years lived with disability (YLD). YLL is
used to calculate the number of life years a person loses due to
pre-mature death [43] and is calculated using Eq. (9).
(1 − e−r×L )
(9)
where, K is the age weighting modulation factor, C is a constant
(with an adopted value of 0.1658), r is the discount rate, ‘a’ is the
age of death, ˇ is the parameter from age weighting function, L is
the standard expectation of life at age ‘a’. Murray and Lopez cited in
Rushby and Hanson [43], have suggested that in base case scenarios
K can be assumed to be 1, r as 0.03 and ˇ to be 0.04, C = 0.1658.
YLD measures the number of life years lost due to onset of dis-
ability in a person at a given age. YLD can be represented in terms
of YLL [43], as shown in Eq. (10).
YLD = D × YLL (10)
where, D is the disability weight (it is equal to one when a person
dies), ‘a’ represents the age of onset of disability and L represents
the duration of disability.
Finally, DALY is calculated using Eq. (11).
DALY = YLD + YLL (11)
Thus, it is seen that mortality and morbidity, represented in
terms of DALY, is sensitive to the demographic profile of population
at risk.
A. Das et al. / Journal of Hazardous Materials 227–228 (2012) 88–96 93

Fig. 5. Distribution of risk along the links in KMA.

94 A. Das et al. / Journal of Hazardous Materials 227–228 (2012) 88–96

4.2. Risk in terms of disability adjusted life years (DALY) 100

90

Cumulative share of risk in DALY

The risk due to an accident involving VCE along a road link can 80
be represented as a product of the probability of occurrence of the 70
event and the vulnerability due to an assessed level of impact. How-
60
ever, in this study AP has been used as a proxy for the probability of Egalitarian Line
50
occurrence of an accident in a link during calculation of risk. Thus,
40
relative risk (Ri–j ) due to a VCE along a link i–j can be represented
by Eq. (12). 30
20
Ri−j = AP × DALY (12)
10

The risk along a path between a given set of origin–destination 0

0 20 40 60 80 100
can be obtained by summing the Ri–j s for all the links on that path. Cumulative share of link length in km
The next section illustrates the methodology of risk assessment in
this study using the case study of KMA. Fig. 6. Lorenz curve showing the distribution of risk in KMA.

5. Case study of an industrial unit in Kolkata metropolitan

area
KMA has an area of 1851.41 km2 and a population of 14.72
million as per Census of India, 2001. It has 38 municipalities,
3 municipal corporations and 24 panchayats (rural local admin-
istrative bodies). The Report on Inventory of Hazardous Waste
Generation and Hazardous Waste Generating Units in West Ben-
gal by WBPCB [46] identified 20 large, 180 small and medium scale
manufacturing units in the KMA. These units generate 55525.3
metric tons of hazardous waste per annum. Das et al. [20] have
discussed the nature and characteristics of hazardous wastes gen-
erated in KMA. However, there are numerous small, informal units
which are not reported in the above mentioned document.
The case study of a pharmaceutical manufacturing unit has
been taken in the present study. This unit manufactures onco-
logic drugs, and generates Schedule I hazardous waste as per
the Hazardous Waste (Management Handling and Transboundary
Movement) Rules [47]. These wastes are further classified as haz-
ardous waste type 28.2 (spent catalysts) and 28.5 (spent organic
solvents). The spent organic solvent consists of ethylene dichloride
[48], which is a highly volatile compound and is susceptible to VCE
in case of an accident during transportation.
Using an aggregation operator, as discussed in Section 2.1, AI for
all the links in the network of KMA has been calculated. The vulner-
ability assessment for all the links in the network was conducted as
described in Section 4.0. The population densities within the pre-
determined impact zone of the administrative local bodies (urban
and rural) were used for this purpose. The age wise population dis-
tributions of the administrative local bodies were not available;
hence the district data was used for this purpose. The mortality
and morbidity expected to occur due to the VCE was categorized
for three age groups upto 14 years, 15–59 years and above 60 years.
This was done to categorize the population in three classes – popu-
lation belonging to the potential workforce, the existing workforce
and the exhausted workforce, respectively. The mortality and mor-
bidity calculated in terms of DALY varies widely for these three
groups. The average YLL value due to death of a person in the
0–14 year age group is 35.03. Whereas YLL value for a person in
15–59 year age group is 20.87 and for a person above 60 years is
0.35. This has been derived using Eq. (9) and taking the expected
life expectancy at birth to be 61 years [44]. Similarly, for calculat-
ing the values of YLD, as shown in Eq. (10), the disability weight
of 0.333 has been taken for hearing loss [45]. Risk for the entire
KMA network has been calculated using DALY values obtained by
adding YLL and YLD values for all road links. The DALY values were
calculated using the cumulative YLL and the YLD values as shown
in Eq. (11). Finally, the risk for the entire KMA network was com-
puted using Eq. (12). The result of the above discussion is shown in
Supplementary material (Table 1).
See Table 1 as supplementary file. Supplementary mate-
rial related to this article found, in the online version, at
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2012.05.014.
Fig. 5 shows the major road network of KMA along with the
location of the manufacturing unit (which is close to node 3).
The treatment, storage and disposal facility (TSDF) that provides
service in the KMA can be accessed via node 26. This set of
origin–destination, i.e. 3–26 can have multiple routes between
them. The transportation risk associated with transportation of
hazardous wastes along each route can be estimated by aggregat-
ing the values of risk of each constituent link of the route. Fig. 5 also
reveals that the values of risk are highest along the links with high-
est adjoining population density. The average per km risk of the
network has been calculated to be 9.5 DALYs. The concept of GINI
coefficient was introduced to calculate the equity of risk distribu-
tion in the network [49]. GINI coefficient is widely used to measure
the inequality in income distribution [50]. However, it has also been
productively used in other fields to measure inequity [51]. In this
study the cumulative distribution of risk (in DALY) along links have
been plotted against cumulative distribution of link length (in km)
and represented in Fig. 6. The distribution represents a Lorenz curve
and the value of the area between the egalitarian line and the Lorenz
curve is used to determine the GINI coefficient. As discussed above,
the risk imposed on the network has been classified into five levels
and their cumulative distribution of risk along with the cumulative

Table 3
Cumulative distribution of link length and the risk along links of KMA.

Risk distribution Percentage share of total risk Percentage share of Cumulative share Cumulative share
total link length of link length of risk (in DALYs)
(in km)

0–20 3.08 17.80 17.80 3.08

20–50 8.28 14.19 31.99 11.36
50–100 12.62 20.33 52.32 23.97
100–150 16.29 10.80 63.12 40.26
150–250 32.69 20.76 83.89 72.95
>250 27.05 16.11 100 100
 A. Das et al. / Journal of Hazardous Materials 227–228 (2012) 88–96
distribution of length has been computed, and is shown in Table 3.
The value of GINI coefficient of the KMA network was found to be
0.32, which can be considered to be fairly equitable (higher GINI
values signify higher inequity and vice versa). The average per km
risk value and the GINI coefficient of the network can be used to
compare two separate networks. It can also be used to compare
improvements (if any) in a network due to upgrading of infrastruc-
ture in a network, e.g. assignment of emergency response units,
reducing quantity of hazardous substances transported, improving
surface conditions and geometry of roads, decreasing congestion.
6. Conclusion
The comprehensive risk assessment framework proposed in
this study is based on traditional definition of risk and is partic-
ularly designed for flammable and volatile hazardous waste. Risk
of VCE during transportation of inflammable hazardous waste was
considered. The proposed framework was based on AP and the vul-
nerability due to a VCE. The AP was calculated based on the value of
AI, which was computed using an aggregation operator. The impact
due to a VCE was modeled based on TNO Multi-energy model.
The total vulnerability of the adjoining population was calculated
by converting the mortality and morbidity values into equivalent
DALYs. A case study of hazardous waste transportation from a phar-
maceutical unit within the KMA was also provided to illustrate
the proposed framework. The average per km risk of the network
and the equity in risk distribution within the network were also
determined.
The proposed risk assessment framework can be utilized for
other events arising out of accidents during hazardous waste trans-
portation, e.g. fire pools, aerial dispersion of toxic fumes, spills, etc.
However, the impact due to such events has to be suitably modified.
The study has limited the risk assessment to human risks only and
has not incorporated potential damages to buildings or other physi-
cal developments, which would require extensive landuse database
for the region.
Risk can be an objective function along with other objectives
(e.g. transportation cost, route length) used to optimize the rout-
ing exercise of a hazardous waste carrier within a given pair of
origin–destination. It can also help in preparing emergency plans
for the adjoining population and allocating infrastructure for haz-
ardous waste management.
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