The Global Economic CHAPTER 2

Environment
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 INTRODUCTION
This chapter includes:
•An overview of the world economy
•A survey of economic system types
•The stages of market development
•The balance of payments

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 THE WORLD ECONOMY - AN OVERVIEW

In the early 20th century

economic integration was
at 10%; today it is 50%
EU and NAFTA are very
integrated
Global competitors have
displaced or absorbed
local ones

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 THE WORLD ECONOMY-AN OVERVIEW

The new realities:

Capital movements have replaced trade
as the driving force of the world economy
Production has become uncoupled from
employment
The world economy, not individual
countries, is the dominating factor

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 THE WORLD ECONOMY - AN OVERVIEW

The new realities, continued:

75-year struggle between capitalism and
socialism has almost ended
E-Commerce diminishes the importance of national
barriers and forces companies to re-evaluate
business models

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 WHY CUBAN CAB DRIVERS EARN MORE THAN DOCTORS

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 WHY IS SCANDINAVIA SO EXPENSIVE

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 ECONOMIC SYSTEMS

Resource Allocation
Market Command

Private Centrally
Market
Capitalism Planned
Capitalism
Resource
Ownership Market Centrally
State Socialism Planned
Socialism

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 MARKET CAPITALISM
Individuals and firms allocate resources
Production resources are privately owned
Driven by consumers
Government’s role is to promote competition among firms and ensure
consumer protection

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 WESTERN MARKET SYSTEMS
Type of System Key Characteristics Countries
Anglo-Saxon Private ownership US, Canada,
free enterprise Great Britain
Minimal social safety net

Social Market Private ownership France, Germany,

Economy Model Inflexible employment Italy
policies, “social partners”

Nordic Model Mix of state and private Sweden, Norway

ownership, large safety net
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 CENTRALLY PLANNED SOCIALISM
Opposite of market capitalism
State holds broad powers to serve the public interest;
decides what goods and services are produced and in
what quantities
Consumers can spend only what is available
Government owns entire industries and controls
distribution
Demand typically exceeds supply
Little reliance on product differentiation, advertising,
pricing strategy
China, India, and the former USSR now moving towards
some economic freedom
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 CENTRALLY PLANNED CAPITALISM

Economic system in which command resource

allocation is used extensively in an environment of
private resource ownership
Example:
 Swedish government controls 2/3s of all spending; a hybrid of CPS
and capitalism

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 ECONOMIC FREEDOM
Rankings of economic freedom among countries
 “free” “mostly free” “mostly unfree” “repressed”
Variables considered include such things as:
 Trade policy
 Taxation policy
 Capital flows and foreign investment
 Banking policy
 Wage and price controls
 Property rights
 Black market

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 ECONOMIC FREEDOM -2009 RANKINGS
Repressed
Free 169. Turkmenistan
1. Hong Kong 170. São Tomé & Príncipe
2. Singapore 171. Libya
3. Australia 172. Comoros
4. Ireland 173. Dem. Rep. Congo
5. New Zealand 174. Venezuela
6. U.S. 175. Eritrea
7. Canada 176. Burma
8. Denmark 177. Cuba
9. Switzerland 178. Zimbabwe
10. U.K. 179. North Korea

Not ranked: Afghanistan, Iraq, Liechtenstein, Sudan

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 STAGES OF MARKET DEVELOPMENT

The World Bank has defined four categories of

development using Gross National Income (GNI)
as a base
BEMs, identified 10 years ago, were countries in
Central Europe, Latin America, and Asia that were
to have rapid economic growth
Today, the focus is on BRIC: Brazil, Russia, India,
and China

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 LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES

GNP per capita of $936 or less

Characteristics
 Limited industrialization Indian
 High percentage of population in farming tailor
 High birth rates
 Low literacy rates
 Heavy reliance on foreign aid
 Political instability and unrest
 Concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa
 India is the only BRIC country

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 LOWER-MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES

GNI per capita: $936 to $3,705

Characteristics
 Rapidly expanding consumer markets
 Cheap labor
 Mature, standardized, labor-intensive industries like textiles and toys

BRIC nation is China

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 UPPER-MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES
GNP per capita: $3,706 to $11,455
Characteristics:
 Rapidly industrializing, less agricultural employment
 Increasing urbanization
 Rising wages
 High literacy rates and advanced education
 Lower wage costs than advanced countries
Also called newly industrializing economies (NIEs)
Examples: Brazil, Russia, Malaysia, Chile, Venezuela, Hungary

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 MARKETING OPPORTUNITIES IN LDCS

Characterized by a shortage of goods and

services
Long-term opportunities must be nurtured in these
countries
 Look beyond per capita GNP
 Consider the LDCs collectively rather than individually
 Consider first mover advantage
 Set realistic deadlines

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 MISTAKEN ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT LDCS
1. The poor have no money.
2. The poor will not “waste” money on non-essential
goods.
3. Entering developing markets is fruitless because
goods there are too cheap to make a profit.
4. People in BOP (bottom of the pyramid) countries
cannot use technology.
5. Global companies doing business in BOP
countries will be seen as exploiting the poor.

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 HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES
GNI per capita: $11,456 or more
Also known as advanced, developed,
industrialized, or postindustrial countries
Characteristics:
 Sustained economic growth through
disciplined innovation
 Service sector is more than 50% of GNI

Tokyo
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 HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES

Characteristics, continued:
 Importance of information processing and exchange
 Ascendancy of knowledge over capital, intellectual over
machine technology, scientists and professionals over
engineers and semiskilled workers
 Future oriented
 Importance of interpersonal relationships

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 G-8, THE GROUP OF EIGHT

Goal of global economic stability and prosperity

 U.S.
 Japan
 Germany
 France
 Britain
 Canada
 Italy
 Russia (1998)
2009 G-8 Leaders in Italy
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 OECD, THE ORGANIZATION FOR ECONOMIC COOPERATION AND
DEVELOPMENT

30 nations
Post-WW II European origin
Canada, U.S. (1961), Japan (1964)
Promotes economic growth and social well-being
Focuses on world trade, global issues, labor market
deregulation
 Anti-bribery conventions

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 THE TRIAD

U.S., Western Europe, and Japan

Represents 75% of world income
Expanded Triad includes all of North America
and the Pacific Rim and most of Eastern Europe
Global companies should be equally strong in
each part

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 PRODUCT SATURATION LEVELS
The % of potential buyers or households who own a
product
India: 20% of people have telephones
Autos: 1 per 43,000 Chinese; 21 per 100 Poles; 8 per
1,000 Indians
Computers: 1 PC per 6,000 Chinese; 11 PCs per Poles; 34
PCs per EU citizen

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 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

Record of all economic transactions

between the residents of a country and the
rest of the world
Current account–record of all recurring trade in
merchandise and services, and humanitarian aid
 trade deficit—negative current account
 trade surplus—positive current account
Capital account–record of all long-term direct
investment, portfolio investment, and capital
flows

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 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

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 TOP EXPORTERS IN 2004
___In US$ billions____ _____% of Total____
1. Germany 912 1. EU 18.1
2. U.S. 819 2. U.S. 12.3
3. China 593 3. China 8.9
4. Japan 566 4. Japan 8.5
5. France 449 5. Canada 4.8
6. Netherlands 358 6. S. Korea 3.8
7. Italy 349 7. Mexico 2.8
8. Great Britain 347 8. Russia 2.8
9. Canada 317 9. Taiwan 2.7
10. Belgium 307 10. Malaysia 1.9

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 TOP IMPORTERS IN 2004
___In US$ billions___ _____% of Total____
1. U.S. 1,526 1. U.S. 21.8
2. Germany 717 2. EU 18.3
3. China 561 3. China 8.0
4. France 466 4. Japan 6.9
5. Great Britain 464 5. Canada 4.0
6. Japan 455 6. South Korea 3.2
7. Italy 351 7. Mexico 3.0
8. Netherlands 319 8. Taiwan 2.4
9. Belgium 286 9. Switzerland 1.6
10. Canada 280 10. Australia 1.6

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 OVERVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

Foreign exchange makes it possible to do business

across the boundary of a national currency
Currency of various countries are traded for both
immediate (spot) and future (forward) delivery
Currency risk adds turbulence to global commerce

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 WHAT IS CURRENCY MANIPULATION

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 FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET DYNAMICS

Supply and Demand interaction

 Country sells more goods/services than it buys
 There is a greater demand for the currency
 The currency will appreciate in value

Exchange Risks and Gains in Foreign Transactions

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 PURCHASING POWER PARITY (PPP)
THE 2008 BIG MAC INDEX

Is a certain currency over/under-valued compared to

another?
Assumption is that the Big Mac in any country should
equal the price of the Big Mac in the U.S. after being
converted to a dollar price
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 MANAGING ECONOMIC EXPOSURE
Economic exposure refers to the impact of currency
fluctuations on the present value of the company’s future
cash flows
Two categories of economic exposure:
 Transaction exposure is from sales/purchases
 Real operating exposure arises when currency fluctuations, together
with price changes, alter a company’s future revenues and costs

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 MANAGING ECONOMIC EXPOSURE

Numerous techniques and strategies have

been developed to reduce exchange rate
risk
 Hedging involves balancing the risk of loss in one
currency with a corresponding gain in another currency
 Forward Contracts set the price of the exchange rate at
some point in the future to eliminate some risk

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 Regional Market
Characteristics and
CHAPTER 3
Preferential Trade
Agreements 37
 INTRODUCTION
This chapter looks at:
 Global trade organizations
 Four types of agreements
 Individual countries and
their preferential trade
agreements

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 GATT
General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade
 Treaty among nations to promote trade among members established in 1947

Handled trade disputes

Lacked enforcement power
Replaced by World Trade Organization in
1995

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 THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION
Forum for trade-
related negotiations
among 150 members
 Based in Geneva
 Serves as dispute
mediator through DSB
 Has enforcement power
and can impose sanctions

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 THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION (WTO)

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 PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENTS
Many countries seek to lower barriers to trade within their regions
PTAs give partners special treatment and may discriminate against
others
Over 150 PTAs have been notified to the WTO

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 TRUMP THREATENS TO PULL OUT OF WTO

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 FREE TRADE AREA
Two or more countries agree to abolish
tariffs and other barriers to trade
amongst themselves
Countries continue independent trade
policies with countries outside
agreement
Rules of origin requirements restrict
transshipment of goods from the country
with the lowest tariff to another

NAFTA Protest in Ottawa 3-44

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 CUSTOMS UNION
Evolution of Free Trade Area
Includes the elimination of internal barriers to trade
(as in FTA)
AND establishes common external barriers to trade
Examples: The EU and Turkey, the Andean
Community, Mercosur, CARICOM, Central American
Integration System (SICA)

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 COMMON MARKET

Includes the elimination of internal barriers to trade

(as in free trade area)
AND establishes common external barriers to trade
(as in customs union)
AND allows for the free movement of factors of
production, such as labor, capital, and information

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 ECONOMIC UNION

Includes the elimination of internal barriers to

trade (as in free trade area)
AND establishes common external barriers to
trade (as in customs union)
AND allows for the free movement of factors of
production, such as labor, capital, and information
(as in common market)
AND coordinates and harmonizes economic and
social policy within the union

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 ECONOMIC UNION
European
Union Flag

Full evolution of economic union

 creation of unified central bank
 use of single currency
 common policies on issues such as agriculture, social policy, transport, competition, mergers,
taxation
 requires extensive political unity
 would lead to a central government in time

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 NORTH AMERICA—NAFTA
Canada, United States, Mexico
NAFTA established free trade area

–All three nations pledge to

promote economic growth
through tariff reductions and
expanded trade and
investment
–No common external tariffs
–Restrictions on labor and
other movements remain

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U.S.-Mexico Border Crossing
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 NAFTA INCOME AND POPULATION

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 LATIN AMERICA: SICA, ANDEAN COMMUNITY, MERCOSUR,
CARICOM

Includes the Caribbean, Central, and South America

History of no growth, inflation, debt, and protectionism has given way
to free markets, open economies, and deregulation
Some concern for further growth with the rise of left-leaning politicians

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 ASIA-PACIFIC: THE ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST
ASIAN NATIONS (ASEAN)

Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines,

Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam
Trading partners U.S., EU, China
Geographically close; historically divided
“ASEAN plus six” (Japan, China, Korea, Australia, New Zealand, India)
working towards an economic community

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 ASEAN

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 SINGAPORE
World’s 2nd largest
container port
2nd highest standard of
living in the region
behind Japan
4.2 million people
93% literacy rate
Over 3,000 companies
Crime is nearly
nonexistent

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 THE EUROPEAN UNION (EU)

Initially began with the 1958 Treaty of Rome

Objective is to harmonize national laws and
regulations so that goods, services, people, and
money could flow freely across national
boundaries
1991 Maastricht Treaty set stage for transition to
an economic union with a central bank and single
currency (the Euro)

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 EUROPEAN UNION
27 countries
491 million people
Combined GNI of
$14.7 trillion
Euro currency, 1999
Harmonization of laws
and regulations

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 THE MIDDLE EAST

Afghanistan, Bahrain, Cyprus, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel,

Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia,
Syria, the United Arab Emirates, Yemen
 Primarily Arab, some Persian and Jews
 95% Muslim, 5% Christian and Jewish
 34.7 million people, 24 million in Saudi Arabia
 25% of world’s oil in Saudi Arabia
 Strong impact of world economic crisis on Dubai

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 GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL

•Established in 1981 by 6 countries with 45% of world’s oil

•These countries are attempting to diversify industries
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 AFRICA

54 nations over three distinct areas

 Republic of South Africa
 North Africa
 Black Africa or sub-Saharan Africa
Regional agreements
 Economic Community of West African States
 East African Cooperation
 South African Development Community

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