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GF EC-058B East Tower, PSE Center, Exchange Road, Ortigas Center, Pasig City, PHILIPPINES 1605 (632)687-5071 (trunk)
DAILY REPORT for TD November 4, 2010
PSE Index Pts Change % Change Total Volume Total Value Advancers Decliners Unchanged
4,397.30 15.44 0.35% 1.722B Php4.837B 71 63 45
EVEN as share prices extended its advance for a third session, our attention is
drawn towards the slower pace over the last two days. From Monday's surprise
1.7%, and Tuesday's 0.9%, yesterday's pick up amounted to less than half-a-
percent. While this could be a manifestation of a wariness on the general level
of stock prices and thus a portent of an oncoming profit-taking stance, it could
likewise be a cautious reaction as the index nears a break of the 3,400-line. The
3.0% week-to-date gains may indeed be very tempting to book, particularly on
stocks with a high return beta (e.i. 3 .0 to 5.0) AGI, RFM, MEG, SCC, VLL and
SMC have all risen by at least 10% from their week-ago levels. While these
firms have yet to report earnings for q3 (except for RFM), taking positions on
these issues' current levels may pose some short-term price risks. Over-all they
remain a buy, however.
.
It needs no further mention that the index continues to trade in overbought
territories. But, as we have noted over the recent periods, technical guidance
have by and large been ignored. Earnings is the key driver for the market at
present. The chart above, however, shows how volumes came in relatively
“weaker” -- failing to rise past its previous peak coincident to the peak broken
by the index Wednesday. This may be an early warning signal. While it is not an
instant suggestion to sell, it posits some hesitation on the approach to new
record levels.
DISCLAIMER: THE MATERIAL CONTAINED IN THIS PUBLICATION IS FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. IT IS NOT TO BE REPRODUCED OR COPIED OR MADE AVAILABLE TO
OTHERS. UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES IS IT TO BE CONSIDERED AS AN OFFER TO SELL OR A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY. WHILE THE INFORMATION HEREIN IS
FROM SOURCES WE BELIEVE RELIABLE, WE DO NOT REPRESENT THAT IT IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. IN ADDITION, WE
SHALL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AMENDING, CORRECTING OR UPDATING ANY INFORMATION OR OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN. SOME OF THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS
REPORT ARE NOT NECESSARILY OPINIONS OF ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION ON THE CREDIT-WORTHINESS OR INVESTMENT PROFILE OF THE COMPANY OR THE
INDUSTRIES MENTIONED.
DAILY Report Page 1 of 3
ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION
GF EC-058B East Tower, PSE Center, Exchange Road, Ortigas Center, Pasig City, PHILIPPINES 1605 (632)687-5071 (trunk)
DAILY REPORT for TD November 4, 2010
PSE Index Pts Change % Change Total Volume Total Value Advancers Decliners Unchanged
4,397.30 15.44 0.35% 1.722B Php4.837B 71 63 45
CORPORTE DISCLOSURES:
The Company's Board has declared cash dividends on both common and preferred shares by the schedule below:
Over the three years to 2009, the Company has taken on increasing
leverage (asset/equity ratio) to 2.96x. Alternatively, the Debt Ratio has
increased to 0.66 from 2007's 0.55. This may have resulted from the
investments in capital equipments supportive of the shift from
traditional landline to modern wireless technology, and its continuing
development. This shift is evident in the revenue structure mentioned earlier. Yet while total assets have expanded by a compound growth of 5.02%
over the last three years, sales have risen by only 3.46%. This is not taken as a negative reflection of the forward prospects, however, as we expect the
firm to be able to squeeze out more revenue on its assets eventually. The wireless business is relatively young and has a wide room for growth. On
another related front, net margins have rebounded to 2006 levels, following a steady, albeit marginal declines through 2008, this even as its asset
utilization (asset turnover ratio) keeps a negative slope. Combining these however, we find the Company being able to achieve an ROE of 42%,
substantially higher than the 33% in the two preceding years. As at the end of the first semester (FS for the nine months yet unavailable) assets
DISCLAIMER: THE MATERIAL CONTAINED IN THIS PUBLICATION IS FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. IT IS NOT TO BE REPRODUCED OR COPIED OR MADE AVAILABLE TO
OTHERS. UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES IS IT TO BE CONSIDERED AS AN OFFER TO SELL OR A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY. WHILE THE INFORMATION HEREIN IS
FROM SOURCES WE BELIEVE RELIABLE, WE DO NOT REPRESENT THAT IT IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. IN ADDITION, WE
SHALL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AMENDING, CORRECTING OR UPDATING ANY INFORMATION OR OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN. SOME OF THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS
REPORT ARE NOT NECESSARILY OPINIONS OF ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION ON THE CREDIT-WORTHINESS OR INVESTMENT PROFILE OF THE COMPANY OR THE
INDUSTRIES MENTIONED.
DAILY Report Page 2 of 3
ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION
GF EC-058B East Tower, PSE Center, Exchange Road, Ortigas Center, Pasig City, PHILIPPINES 1605 (632)687-5071 (trunk)
DAILY REPORT for TD November 4, 2010
PSE Index Pts Change % Change Total Volume Total Value Advancers Decliners Unchanged
4,397.30 15.44 0.35% 1.722B Php4.837B 71 63 45
turnover has dropped to 28%, while net margins have risen significantly to 29% and debt ratio contained at 64% -- all giving rise to a six-month ROE of
23%. We expect the full-year figure to reach 42%.
The stock is currently trading at 10.3x its annualized 2010 earnings and 12.6x prior year earnings of php169.38. Full year 2010 EPS is estimated to fall
within the php222 to 232 range. Using actual (current year) EPS, the stock has traded at an average of 14x PE over the last three years. This translates
to a possible price range of php3,108 to php3,248, making the stock still a bargain at php2,652.
Technical signals are still mixed with the price chart drawing a near-term downtrend. The Fibonacci series puts the initial pull-back point at php2,620,
which we mark as the support. MACD supports the price trend as it extends to 13 sessions its break under the signal line coinciding with the stock
closing at php2,694. It is yet to show any suggestions of a reversal or the short-term action. Yet, since three days back, even as the stock moved lower
by almost 1.0% (php2,678 to php2,652), STO actually registered an upward piercing of the trigger line with volumes favoring accumulation, temporarily
halting the distributive bias. These mixed readings off the charts, and the weakness in the price, cautions us against an early position on the stock,
translating to a HOLD. Having said that, the layout suggests that positions may be taken as the price drops further towards our indicated support level
at the php2,590-2,620 range. HOLD/ BUY on DIPS
DISCLAIMER: THE MATERIAL CONTAINED IN THIS PUBLICATION IS FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. IT IS NOT TO BE REPRODUCED OR COPIED OR MADE AVAILABLE TO
OTHERS. UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES IS IT TO BE CONSIDERED AS AN OFFER TO SELL OR A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY. WHILE THE INFORMATION HEREIN IS
FROM SOURCES WE BELIEVE RELIABLE, WE DO NOT REPRESENT THAT IT IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. IN ADDITION, WE
SHALL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AMENDING, CORRECTING OR UPDATING ANY INFORMATION OR OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN. SOME OF THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS
REPORT ARE NOT NECESSARILY OPINIONS OF ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION ON THE CREDIT-WORTHINESS OR INVESTMENT PROFILE OF THE COMPANY OR THE
INDUSTRIES MENTIONED.
DAILY Report Page 3 of 3