Section 8: Peak Flow

Estimation

• Flood frequency analysis at gauged catchments

• Rational method
• Probabilistic rational method
 Flood Frequency Analysis at Gauged Sites
Continuous streamflow discharge measurements are made at gauging stations.
The annual maximum peak flow can be extracted from the gauged record yielding a
time series of annual flood peaks
q = {q1,q2,….,qn}
Goal of flood frequency analysis is to infer the underlying flood probability
distribution f(q) and to use it in risk-based design of hydraulic structures such as
road culvert.

Traditional assumptions
• Annual flood peaks are statistically independent … OK
• Flood probability model is the same every year:
• In some part of Australia multi-decadal climate variability violates this
assumption
• Need to assume no major changes to catchment such as land use change affect
distribution of flood peaks
• Flood peaks are measured without error … not true when rating curve is extrapolated
• The flood probability distribution is known except for its parameters … In Australia
flood peaks are well fitted by the log Pearson 3 distribution though other distributions
8-2
such as Generalized Extreme Value fit equally well
Fitting LP3 Distribution to Gauged Data
Fitting LP3 to gauged data involves the same approach as fitting rainfall data

Step 1: Calculate estimates of the moments of the population of logarithms of floods. If Xi is the logarithm to base 10 of an
annual peak discharge Qi and N years is the length of record, then for the logarithmic values find the mean M,
standard deviation S and skewness g

1 N 1 N N
M = ∑Xi , ∑ ( Xi − M )2 , N
( )
(N −1)(N − 2)S3 ∑
S= g= −
3
X M
N −1 i=1
i
N i=1 i=1

Step 2: Check for low or high outliers – see Australian Rainfall Runoff for guidance

Step 3: Flows for a range of AEPs should then be calculated using

log QY = M + KY(g)S
where QY is the discharge having an AEP of 1 in Y and KY(g) is the log Pearson frequency factor found in table in
Section 3 of notes.

Step 4: At a selected AEP of 1 in Y, determine the confidence limits CL (QY) about the discharge QY using
F.δ .S
log(CL(QY )) = logQY ±
N
where F is a normal frequency factor for the desired confidence level (eg 1.645 for 5% and 95% confidence
limits),
δ is a tabulated parameter for determining the standard error of a Pearson III distribution, and
S is the standard deviation of logarithms of flows.
8-3
Fitting LP3 Distribution to Gauged Data
Table for δ for known values of exceedance probability and skewness
SKEW EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY

0.998 0.995 0.990 0.980 0.950 0.900 0.800 0.500 0.200 0.100 0.050 0.020 0.010 0.005 0.002

1.5 3.7717 3.3897 3.0080 2.5321 1.7499 1.0823 0.6656 1.3065 1.6574 2.2544 3.3430 5.2228 6.8350 8.5168 10.9126
1.4 3.7635 3.3238 2.9061 2.4073 1.6284 1.0079 0.6933 1.2768 1.6131 2.2052 3.2347 4.9854 6.4618 8.1186 10.2530
1.3 3.7285 3.2374 2.7915 2.2792 1.5171 0.9522 0.7265 1.2482 1.5730 2.1544 3.1238 4.7498 6.1543 7.5835 9.6113
1.2 3.6683 3.1348 2.6695 2.1532 1.4198 0.9164 0.7626 1.2213 1.5361 2.1018 3.0109 4.5169 5.7936 7.1321 8.9892
1.1 3.5872 3.0220 2.5463 2.0350 1.3401 0.9000 0.7998 1.1966 1.5019 2.0475 2.8964 4.2874 5.4553 6.6928 8.3881

1.0 3.4922 2.9065 2.4287 1.9299 1.2807 0.9015 0.8370 1.1742 1.4696 1.9913 2.7808 4.0620 5.1499 6.2669 7.8094
0.9 3.3919 2.7963 2.3238 1.8434 1.2434 0.9182 0.8736 1.1544 1.4387 1.9335 2.6647 3.8416 4.8288 5.8817 7.3749
0.8 3.2967 2.7001 2.2381 1.7797 1.2286 0.9471 0.9093 1.1372 1.4086 1.8741 2.5487 3.6268 4.5181 5.4846 6.7804
0.7 3.2170 2.6258 2.1777 1.7422 1.2352 0.9856 0.9441 1.1226 1.3790 1.8135 2.4332 3.4184 4.2506 5.1044 6.2723
0.6 3.1634 2.5809 2.1471 1.7328 1.2613 1.0311 0.9781 1.1105 1.3496 1.7519 2.3189 3.2169 3.9620 4.7655 5.8442

0.5 3.1449 2.5710 2.1493 1.7516 1.3042 1.0818 1.0113 1.1007 1.3202 1.6895 2.2062 3.0232 3.6961 4.3972 5.3892
0.4 3.1156 2.5652 2.1638 1.7867 1.3600 1.1365 1.0416 1.0918 1.2905 1.6227 2.0915 2.8423 3.4724 4.1386 5.0602
0.3 3.1997 2.6434 2.2394 1.8607 1.4292 1.1937 1.0744 1.0866 1.2609 1.5610 1.9852 2.6656 3.2365 3.8397 4.6726
0.2 3.3323 2.7599 2.3451 1.9557 1.5074 1.2529 1.1067 1.0830 1.2309 1.4989 1.8815 2.4986 3.0175 3.5656 4.3219
0.1 3.5128 2.9129 2.4782 2.0692 1.5930 1.3133 1.1385 1.0808 1.2006 1.4367 1.7810 2.3425 2.8168 3.3183 4.0101

0.0 3.7212 3.0983 2.6363 2.1988 1.6845 1.3748 1.1698 1.0801 1.1698 1.3748 1.6845 2.1988 2.6363 3.0983 3.7212

-0.1 4.0101 3.3183 2.8168 2.3425 1.7810 1.4367 1.2006 1.0808 1.1385 1.3133 1.5930 2.0692 2.4782 2.9129 3.5128
-0.2 4.3219 3.5656 3.0175 2.4986 1.8815 1.4989 1.2309 1.0830 1.1067 1.2529 1.5074 1.9557 2.3451 2.7599 3.3323
-0.3 4.6726 3.8397 3.2365 2.6656 1.9852 1.5610 1.2609 1.0866 1.0744 1.1937 1.4292 1.8607 2.2394 2.6434 3.1997
-0.4 5.0602 4.1386 3.4724 2.8423 2.0915 1.6227 1.2905 1.0918 1.0416 1.1365 1.3600 1.7867 2.1638 2.5652 3.1156
-0.5 5.3892 4.3972 3.6961 3.0232 2.2062 1.6895 1.3202 1.1007 1.0113 1.0818 1.3042 1.7516 2.1493 2.5710 3.1449

-0.6 5.8442 4.7655 3.9620 3.2169 2.3189 1.7519 1.3496 1.1105 0.9781 1.0311 1.2613 1.7328 2.1471 2.5809 3.1634
-0.7 6.2723 5.1044 4.2506 3.4184 2.4332 1.8135 1.3790 1.1226 0.9441 0.9856 1.2352 1.7422 2.1777 2.6258 3.2170
-0.8 6.7804 5.4846 4.5181 3.6268 2.5487 1.8741 1.4086 1.1372 0.9093 0.9471 1.2286 1.7797 2.2381 2.7001 3.2967
-0.9 7.3749 5.8817 4.8288 3.8416 2.6647 1.9335 1.4387 1.1544 0.8736 0.9182 1.2434 1.8434 2.3238 2.7963 3.3919
-1.0 7.8094 6.2669 5.1499 4.0620 2.7808 1.9913 1.4696 1.1742 0.8370 0.9015 1.2807 1.9299 2.4287 2.9065 3.4922

-1.1 8.3881 6.6928 5.4553 4.2874 2.8964 2.0475 1.5019 1.1966 0.7998 0.9000 1.3401 2.0350 2.5463 3.0220 3.5872
-1.2 8.9892 7.1321 5.7936 4.5169 3.0109 2.1018 1.5361 1.2213 0.7626 0.9164 1.4198 2.1532 2.6695 3.1348 3.6683
-1.3 9.6113 7.5835 6.1543 4.7498 3.1238 2.1544 1.5730 1.2482 0.7265 0.9522 1.5171 2.2792 2.7915 3.2374 3.7285
-1.4 10.2530 8.1186 6.4618 4.9854 3.2347 2.2052 1.6131 1.2768 0.6933 1.0079 1.6284 2.4073 2.9061 3.3238 3.7635 8-4
-1.5 10.9126 8.5168 6.8350 5.2228 3.3430 2.2544 1.6574 1.3065 0.6656 1.0823 1.7499 2.5321 3.0080 3.3897 3.7717
 Fitting LP3 Distribution: Example
Styx River at Jeogla From Table in section 4 (Class Notes)
A tributary of the Macleay River on the mid north coast of Mean M = 2.06695
N.S.W. Standard deviation S = 0.47708 Q y = M + K y ( g )S
Skewness g = -0.47309
National number 206001.
Lat.30° 36.4', long. 152° 09.8'. AEP K
Y
K S
Y
log Q
Y
Q
Y
Catchment area 163 km2 . % = M + K YS m3/s

Annual floods for the 47 years 1939-1985 99 -2.667 -1.272 0.795 6.23
95 -1.768 -0.844 1.223 16.7
90 -1.321 -0.630 1.437 27.3
Rank Year Q AEP Rank Year Q AEP 80 -0.810 -0.386 1.681 47.9
m m3/s % m m3/s % 50 0.078 0.037 2.104 127.1
20 0.856 0.408 2.475 299
1 1954 878 1.27 25 1973 117 52.1 10 1.220 0.582 2.649 446
2 1950 541 3.39 26 1984 111 54.2 5 1.493 0.712 2.779 602
3 1959 521 5.51 27 1961 108 56.4 2 1.792 0.855 2.922 836
4 1963 513 7.63 28 1982 105 58.5 1 1.975 0.942 3.009 1020
5 1967 436 9.75 29 1972 92.2 60.6
6 1962 411 11.9 30 1951 88.6 62.7
F .δ .S
7 1946 405 14.0 31 1943 79.9 64.8 FS
δ log(CL (QY )) = log QY ±
8 1980 315 16.1 32 1981 74.0 67.0 N N
9 1952 309 18.2 33 1953 71.9 69.1
10 1985 300 20.3 34 1960 62.6 71.2
11 1945 294 22.5 35 1979 61.2 73.3 AEP QY log QY δ 0.114 δ log CL5 CL5 log CL95 CL95
12 1971 258 24.6 36 1947 60.3 75.4 3 3
13 1956 255 26.7 37 1939 58.0 77.5 % m /s =(3)+(5) m /s =(3)-(5) m3/s
14 1978 235 28.8 38 1969 53.5 79.7 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)
15 1949 221 30.9 39 1955 39.1 81.8
16 1977 220 33.1 40 1958 26.7 83.9 99 6.23 0.795 3.636 0.415 1.210 16.2 0.380 2.4
17 1975 206 35.2 41 1942 26.1 86.0 95 16.7 1.223 2.175 0.248 1.471 29.6 0.975 9.4
18 1976 196 37.3 42 1970 23.8 88.1 90 27.3 1.437 1.672 0.191 1.628 42.4 1.246 17.6
19 1974 194 39.4 43 1957 22.4 90.3 80 47.9 1.681 1.312 0.150 1.831 67.7 1.531 34.0
20 1964 190 41.5 44 1941 22.1 92.4 50 127 2.104 1.098 0.125 2.229 170 1.979 95.3
21 1965 186 43.6 45 1983 18.6 94.5 20 299 2.475 1.019 0.116 2.591 390 2.359 229
22 1948 177 45.8 46 1940 13.0 96.6 10 446 2.649 1.097 0.125 2.774 594 2.524 334
23 1944 164 47.9 47 1966 8.18 98.7 5 602 2.779 1.319 0.150 2.929 850 2.629 426
24 1968 126 50.0 2 836 2.922 1.761 0.201 3.123 1330 2.721 526
1 1020 3.009 2.153 0.245 3.254 1800 2.764 581

8-5
Fitting LP3 Distribution: Example

8-6
 Use of Pre-Gauged Data
Prior to gauging valuable historic information may be available about large floods
Use of such data with gauged data requires use of a Bayesian approach Æ need software
6.00
Gauged flow
Exp parameter quantile
Hunter River at Singleton
5.00 Expected prob quantile 31 years gauged flows 1938 to 1969
90% limits
An examination of historic records indicates that
during the ungauged period 1820 to 1937 there
Log10 Flow

4.00

was only one flood that exceeded the 1955 flood –

Gauged only
3.00
this flood occurred in 1820. Over the ungauged
period 1820 to 1937 there was one flood above and
2.00
117 floods below the threshold discharge
corresponding to the 1955 flood.
1.00
1.5 2 5 10 20 50100200 500

1 in Y AEP Gauged only

1 in Y Quantile qY Quantile confidence
6.00
limits
Gauged flow
AEP 5% limit 95% limit
Censored flow
5.00 Exp parameter quantile
10 3,888 2,222 8,287
Expected prob quantile
50 12,729 5,537 52,157
90% limits
100 19,548 7,372 108,144
500 47,366 11,799 549,773
Log10 Flow

4.00

Gauged + historic
1 in Y Quantile qY Quantile confidence
3.00 Gauged + limits
historic AEP 5% limit 95% limit
10 3,281 2,188 5,006
2.00
50 9,351 5,786 16,416
100 13,535 7,751 27,100
500 28,615 12,790 87,327
1.00
1.5 2 5 10 20 50100200 500 8-7
1 in Y AEP
 Peak-Over-Threshold Series
POT analysis is likely to give a more accurate estimate of flows with ARIs less
than 5 years than an analysis using annual maximum flows.
However, extracting POT data is much more difficult than extracting annual
maximum data.
Need to ensure each peak above a threshold is independent of other peaks –
consult ARR.

Styx River at Jeogla

The table lists all the independent peak flows recorded over a 47 year period that exceeded a threshold of 74
m3/s – the total number of peaks was 47.
Comparison with the annual maximum flood peaks in previous example reveals that in 15 of the 47 years of
record the annual maximum peak was below the threshold of 74 m3/s.
878 541 521 513 436 411 405 315
309 301 300 294 283 258 255 255
238 235 221 220 206 196 194 190
186 164 150 149 134 129 129 126
119 118 117 117 111 108 105 98
92.2 92.2 91.7 88.6 85.2 79.9 74

8-8
 Rational Method: Conceptual Foundation
When whole catchment is contributing
to outlet, a steady state is reached

Uniform constant Outflow = Net rainfall on catchment

rainfall rate i
Q = A (i- φ)
= A i (1- φ/i)
= CiA
Surface runoff Catchment
area A where C is a dimensionless runoff
coefficient dependent on i and soil type

CiA

Discharge
Time
tc, time of
concentration

Q Constant
infiltration rate φ
Rational formula Q = C i A
Discharge from First derived in mid-1800s and still used
catchment Q
throughout world 8-9
 Rational Method: Application
Simple to apply deterministic rational method:
• Measure catchment area
• Estimate time of concentration tc eg kinematic

Design rainfall
wave tc
• Estimate runoff coefficient C

rate i
• Estimate design rainfall intensity i by setting
storm duration to time of concentration Storm
tc, time of
concentration duration td
• Estimate peak flow Q = C i A

Units Q = C i A
m3/s m/s m2

Q = 0.2778 C i A
m3/s mm/hr km2

8-10
 Rational Method: Accuracy
In practice large standard errors of 30 to 40% arise from use of rational method:
• Rainfall rate is not constant
• Rainfall is not spatially uniform
• Antecedent wetness which affects infiltration ignored
• Difficult to estimate runoff coefficient

Catchment Number of Mean absolute deviation

observed between observed and
storms estimated peak (%)
Baltimore 1 25 27
Baltimore 2 19 17
Baltimore 3 4 55
Baltimore 4 7 34
Baltimore 5 4 19
St. Louis 3 79
Los Angeles 1 23
Hertfordshire, UK 3 22
66 34

Australian practice is moving away from use of classical rational method.

However, it is useful for quick approximate estimates of peak flow
8-11
 Probabilistic Rational Method
In recognition of the inaccuracy and inconsistency of the classical rational
method Pilgrim and McDermott (1982) proposed the probabilistic rational method
to enable more consistent peak flow estimation at ungauged catchments

At gauged sites evaluate the runoff coefficient CY for an ARI of Y years

Flood frequency analysis

discharge Q
QY

Annual max
Q = C i A
CY = QY

A I t c ,Y
Catchment area

tc is a time of concentration or response
time of catchment.
In eastern NSW tc(hr) = 0.76 A(km2)0.38
Y ARI, years
Use ARR regional IFD procedure
to estimate average design
rainfall intensity Itc,Y for duration
tc and ARI of Y years

Using gauged site C10 values draw a contour map of C10 values.
8-12
Map of C10 Runoff Coefficients for Eastern NSW

Map of C10 only applies to RURAL

catchments with areas < 250 km2

Mittelstadt and Pilgrim (1987) revised

Pilgrim and McDermott (1982) work to
derive C10 at 308 rural catchments with
areas < 250 km2 in eastern NSW and
prepared a C10 map for Australian
Rainfall and Runoff

8-13
Source: Australian rainfall Runoff Vol 2 (1987))
Regionalisation: Estimation at Ungauged Catchments
C10 map enables estimation of C10 at ungauged catchments.

Estimate catchment area from

Q Y = FFY C10 I t c ,Y A map [max value of 250 km2]

Frequency factor
Use ARR regional IFD procedure
to estimate average design
In eastern NSW tc = 0.76 A0.38
rainfall intensity Itc,Y for duration
tc and ARI of Y years

Advantages of probabilistic rational method over classical rational method:

• Consistent way of estimating runoff coefficient
• The way CY was derived ensures Y-year rainfall produces a Y-year peak flow
• Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall accounted for using flood frequency analysis

This method is an example of regionalisation, where information from

gauged catchments is transferred to ungauged catchments 8-14
Peak Flows At Ungauged Catchments in eastern NSW
i. Determine the critical rainfall duration as the time of concentration tc hours from the formula:
tc = 0.76A0.38
where A = catchment area (km2).

ii. For this duration tc and the selected design ARI Y years, the design rainfall intensity Itc,Y is obtained by ARR
regional IFD analysis. No reduction of this point intensity should be made for the size of the catchment.

iii. Read the runoff coefficient C10 for an ARI of 10 years from the map in ARR Vol 2.If the site is east of the line
joining Ashford, Tamworth, Bathurst, Yass, Tumut and Jingellic, this value is adopted as C10. If the site is west
of the line and the catchment size is greater than 100 km2 (but smaller than the recommended maximum of 250
km2), the map value is again adopted as C10 if it is greater than 0.10, or this latter value is used if the map value
is less. For catchments smaller than 100 km2 west of the line, the procedure for determining values of C10 is as
follows:
• if the value read from Figure 5.1 (Volume 2) is greater than or equal to 0.40, it should be used but should
not be adjusted for area as described below.
• if it is less than 0.40, the value from Figure 5.1 should be multiplied by (100/A)0.15 where area A is in km2.
• if this adjusted value is greater than 0.40, then 0.40 should be used.
• if the adjusted value is less than 0.10, a value of 0.10 should be used.

iv. For ARIs other than 10 years, an appropriate frequency factor FFY is found from Table for the relevant zone.
For locations within 25 km of a zone boundary, FFY should be determined for each zone and the design value
found by linear interpolation from the two values based on actual location within the 50 km border strip. The
runoff coefficient CY for the adopted ARI is found by:
CY = C10 × FFY
v. Design flood magnitude is
QY = CY Itc,Y A
8-15
Map of FFY Zones

8-16
Source: Australian rainfall Runoff Vol (1987))
 Table of Frequency Factors FFy
Table PRM-1. Frequency factors FFY for Rational Method in Eastern New South Wales.

Zone in Figure 1.2

A B C D E F
Frequency
Factors Below Above Below Above Below Above Below Above Below Above Below Above
FFY 500m 500m 500m 500m 500m 500m 500m 500m 500m 500m 500m 500m

FF1 0.67 0.50 0.62 0.57 0.62 0.89 0.43 0.37 0.38 0.52 0.66 0.69
FF2 0.81 0.66 0.74 0.70 0.78 0.92 0.58 0.53 0.54 0.64 0.74 0.77
FF5 0.92 0.85 0.88 0.86 0.90 0.95 0.80 0.77 0.78 0.82 0.87 0.89
FF10 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
FF20 1.07 1.14 1.12 1.14 1.10 1.05 1.20 1.25 1.26 121 1.15 1.10
FF50 * 1.32 * 1.33 * 1.17 1.54 1.74 1.71 1.52 1.39 1.26
FF100 * 1.46 * 1.50 * 1.24 1.80 2.20 2.14 1.78 1.60 1.34

Zones
Below FF50 FF100
500m

A 0.366I12,50 0.588I12,50
FF50 = 1.90 − FF100 = 2.45 −
I12,2 I12,2

B 0.366I12,50 0.588I12,50
FF50 = 1.99 − FF100 = 2.57 −
I12,2 I12,2

C 0.366I12,50 0.588I12,50
FF50 = 1.97 − FF100 = 2.54 −
I12,2 I12,2

8-17
Source: Australian rainfall Runoff Vol (1987))
 Probabilistic Rational Method: Example
Estimate the 100-year flood peak at Newcastle, NSW for a 20 km2 catchment

Step 1. Check A < 250 km2

tc = 0.76x200.38 = 2.37 hour
Step 2. From ARR IFD analysis I2.37,100 = 44.6 mm/hr
Step 3. From ARR Vol 2 map C10 = 0.40
East of dividing line Æ C10 = 0.40
Step 4. Newcastle is in zone B and has elevation below 500 m
FF100 = 2.57 - 0.588xI12,50/I12,2 = 2.57 - 0.588x14/7 = 1.394
C100 = FF100 C10 = 1.394x0.40 = 0.558
Step 5: Q100 = C100 I2.37,100 A
= 0.588 x 44.6 mm/hr x (1/1000) m/mm x (1/3600) hr/s x 20 km2 x 106 m2/km2
= 146 m3/s [Take care with units]

8-18
From Lecture 4

8-19