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PSYCHOLOGY
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Randomness, chance, and luck influence our lives and our work more than we realize. Because of hindsight bias and survivorship bias, in
particular, we tend to forget the many who fail, remember the few who succeed, and then create reasons and patterns for their success
even though it was largely random. Mild success can be explainable by skills and hard work, but wild success is usually attributable to
variance and luck.
According to Taleb, the book’s most popular chapter was Chapter 11, the one in which he compressed all the literature on the topic of
miscalculating probability.
Important point: “it’s more random than we think, not it is all random.” Chance favors preparedness, but it is not caused by
preparedness (same for hard work, skills, etc.)
“This business of journalism is just about entertainment, particularly when it comes to radio and television.”
As much as we want to “keep it simple, stupid” … It is precisely the simplification of issues that are actually very complex, which can be
dangerous.
“Things that happen with little help from luck are more resistant to randomness.”
“Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild success is attributable to variance.”
One common theory for why people pursue leadership is because of “social emotions” which cause others to be influenced by a
person due to small, almost imperceptible physical signals like charisma, gestures, and gait.
This has also been shown via evolutionary psychology: when you perform well in life, you get all “puffed up” in the way you carry
yourself, the bounce in your step, etc. From an evolution standpoint this is great because it becomes easier to spot the most successful
/ desirable mate.
The concept of alternative histories is particularly interesting. If you were to relive a set of events 1000 times, what would the range of
outcomes be? If there is very little variance in your alternative histories (i.e. You chose to become a dentist and you will probably make
more or less the same amount of money and live a similar lifestyle all 1000 times), then you are in a relatively non- random situation.
Meanwhile, if there is a very wide range of normal results when considering 1,000 variations (entrepreneurs, traders, etc.), then it is a
very random situation.
The quality of a choice cannot be judged just by the result. (I first learned this in baseball. Just because a pitch you call or play you call
doesn’t work out doesn’t make it a poor choice. It could have been the right call, but bad luck. Or vice versa.)
“Certainty is something that is likely to take place across the highest number of different alternative histories. Uncertainty concerns
events that should take place in the lowest number of them.”
You should think carefully about getting more insurance / shielding yourself from events that — although unlikely — could be
catastrophic. You essentially want to insulate yourself from terrible random accidents.
We have a tendency to see risks against specific things as more likely than general risks (dying in a terrorist attack while traveling vs.
dying on your next trip, even though the second includes the first). We seem to overvalue the things that trigger an emotional response
and undervalue the things that aren’t as emotional.
We are so mentally wired to overvalue the sensational stories that you can “realize informational gains by dispensing with the news.”
Fascinating famous Swiss study of the amnesia patient who couldn’t remember doctor’s name but did remember him pricking her hand
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