ACI MATERIALS JOURNAL
Title no. 90-M30
Accuracy of Prediction Models for Shrinkage of Concrete
by David B. McDonald and Harold Roper
Seven shrinkage models are compared with data measured on 46 Australian
concretes containing over 1500 data points, using the method of residual
plotting. This method is shown to be superior to the current methods ofpre-
senting shrinkage data, as the method of plotting shrinkage residuals en-
ables inaccuracies in the shape of shrinkage-time curves to be identified
readily.
It is shown that more complex shrinkage models may not necessarily be
more accurate than simple models. The introduction of such parameters as
water-cement ratio, aggregate grading, and air content may not necessarily
lead to improved accuracy of the models, and some of the recently presented
models performed poorly for the Australian concretes used in this paper. It
was shown that the simple Australian Code ASJ481 performed better than
the other models for the prediction of shrinkage.
Keywords: concretes; models; shrinkage; standards.
Engineers are required to predict concrete properties for
use in structures that are increasingly complex. Design codes
for concrete cantilever bridges, very tall buildings, and shell
structures tend to be based on limit state procedures. For these
methods to be applied advantageously, accurate prediction of
concrete strengths, moduli, and deformations due to shrinkage
and creep are required in the design process. The designer
may stipulate certain parameters of the concrete to be used,
such as the 28-day strength, slump, cement content, and
water-cement ratio (w/c). Generally, however, there are no
long-term test data for the designated concrete mix design
that is selected at the design stage. Under such circumstances,
designers (having no available long-term creep or shrinkage
data) must rely on the overall accuracy of a chosen predic-
tion model.
In a number of papers on shrinkage and creep prediction,
comparisons between experimental results and prediction
models have been presented. Much of the data represents the
characteristics of cylinders of a particular concrete mix, which
are loaded and subjected at a particular age to constant hu-
midity conditions. Using this measured data, values of the
chosen prediction models are then often modified to mini-
mize the errors between experimental and predicted curves
by best-fit methods. Only if long-term data are available for
a particular mix is it possible for the designer to either accept
the code or model or modify the prediction technique with any
degree of accuracy.
ACI Materials Journal I May-June 1993
TECHNICAL PAPER
An example of model modification to fit laboratory data
may be illustrated by references to work by Clifford and Ko-
retsky. Initially, Clifford' undertook a series of tests on
"large" laboratory specimens (150 to 225-mm diameter) to
derive the "basic shrinkage," elastic modulus, and creep
modulus of the concrete to be used in the construction of a
large cantilever bridge (Gateway Bridge). This work was to
enable, as accurately as possible, the determination of can-
tilever deflections for construction presets. The objective of
this work was not an attempt to refine the prediction methods
in the codes.
Clifford and Koretsky 2 subsequently modified the
shrinkage and creep predictions ofNAASRA3 and CEB-FJP4
codes to improve the fit of this experimental data. They then
compared the two modified predictions. The Swiss designers
of the main span of the structure had used the CEB-FIP code,
while the designers of the approaches and foundations used
the NAASRA bridge specifications. For this reason, com-
parisons of the experimental results and the CEB-
FIP/NAASRA predictions were presented. The authors sug-
gested modifications to both codes on the basis of their re-
sults. The outcome of their optimizing prediction parameters,
one at a time, for a particular mix, is that the prediction
method, although apparently based on the codes, becomes
little better than the use of particular curves found by fitting
a polynomial to the experimental data. This is perfectly jus-
tifiable for engineering use on a particular project, but strict
relationships to code concepts cannot then be claimed.
RESEARCH SIGNIFICANCE
The significance of the research presented in this paper is
twofold. First, shrinkages predicted from a number of codes
and models are compared to the measured shrinkages of Aus-
tralian concretes. Second, and more importantly, the paper
presents a method for presenting accuracy information. It has
been the custom to present the accuracy of shrinkage predic-
ACI Materials Journal, V. 90, No.3, May-June 1993.
Received July 24, 1991, and reviewed under Institute publication policies. Copyright
© 1993, American Concrete Institute. All rights reserved, including the making of copies
unless permission is obtained from the copyright proprietors. Pe,rtinent discussion will
be published in theMarch-April1994AC/ Materialsloumalifreceived by Dec. I, 1993.
265
 David B. McDonald completed his PhD degree at the University of Sydney, Australia,
in 1990 and currently works for Wiss, Janney, Elstner Associates Inc., Northbrook, Illi-
nois. He is a member of ACI Committee 209, Creep and Shrinkage in Concrete.
Harold Roper is an associate professor at the University of Sydney, where he has spe-
cialized in concrete materials. He is the author of numerous papers on concrete mate-
rials and corrosion.
tion either in the form of individual plots for individual con-
cretes, or to combine the data into a single numerical value,
signifying the goodness-of-fit of the shrinkage model to the
data. Shrinkage models generally are formed from two parts:
the shape of the shrinkage-time curve and scaling terms. The
plotting of shrinkage residual values presented in this paper
(i.e., the differences between predicted and measured
shrinkage values) enables inaccuracies in both of these com-
ponents of a model to be identified simply. Once inaccuracies
are identified, adjustment to prediction methods may be made.
OBJECTIVES, DATA SOURCES, AND METHODS
The accuracies of prediction for shrinkage of a number of
codes and models are investigated and compared using an ex-
tensive range of Australian data for structural grade concretes.
The codes and models considered were: ACI 209R-82,5
AS3600, 6 AS1481,7 the Baiant-Panula model,& CEB-FIP,4
CEB90,9 and NAASRA.3
Table 1 - Factors for prediction of shrinkage and
creep
ACI
209 AS1481 AS3600 Bazant CEB-FIP CEB9ONAASRA
Humidity X X X X X X X
The accuracy of the shrinkage prediction methods without
access to long-term tests on the particular mix, and excluding
further modifications of their results, is investigated. Com-
parisons are made between the models and actual test data
for Australian structural grade concretes.
The design codes and models vary widely in their predic-
tion techniques. The various factors required for use in each
method for the prediction of both shrinkage and creep are
shown in Table 1. It could be expected that the more complex
the prediction method for shrinkage, the greater would be its
accuracy. It will be shown that this is not necessarily the case.
The data sets used are taken from laboratory tests of
Bakoss, Faulkes, and Pulmano; JO Clifford;2 Crawley; n Currie
et al.; 12 the Department of Main Roads, N.S.W.;l3 and Mc-
Donald.l4 The cement content and type, slump, w!c, and 28-
day strength of the concretes used for the analysis are given
in Table 2. None of these mixtures contained mineral or chem-
ical admixtures, as none of the current codes enable modifi-
cations to be made for these compounds.
Two analytical methods for assessment of the accuracy of
the prediction methods are used on the chosen data sets. The
first method of analysis involves plotting of the residuals be-
tween experimental data and predicted curve values as func-
tions of the logarithm of time. The predicted curves are given
by the various models or codes, and the residuals are obtained
by subtraction of the experimental values of shrinkage from
these derived values at each time the experimental data were
obtained. The residuals from a number of data sets are plotted
on the same graph to allow visual assessment of the overall
performance of a particular prediction model. The importance
of the plotting technique as a series of points rather than lines

Temperature X X X
Table 2 - Concrete data
Size X X X X X X X
28-day Cement
Shape X strength, content and type, Slump,
Source MPa kg/m3 W/C mm
28-day X X X X
strength Bakoss, Faulkes, and 39 350 0.54 80
PulmanoiO Type A
Strength at X
loading Clifford 1 53 460 0.37 90
TypeB
Elastic X X (H.E.S.)
modulus
Crawley 11 50 520 0.43 65
WIC X X TypeB
Cement X X X 50 520 0.43 80
content TypeB
Cement type X X 45 520 0.37 25
Type A
Fine/coarse X X
aggregate Currie et. a1.12 37 370 0.46 80
Type A
Cement/sand X
D.M.R.I3 50 470 0.40 80
Cement/ X Type A
Gravel
Air content X
48 420 0.44 80
Type A
Slump X X
63 520 0.38 90
Density X X X X Type A

Age at X X 73 480 0.46 75

drying Type A

Age at X X X X X X X McDonald 14 50 465 0.47 200

loading Type A

266 ACI Materials Journal I May-June 1993

l
 FITTED CURVES
:~en~·:'~ental data
o-o b
800
c-c c
600
400
0+-----r------~------~r-----~
1 10 100 1000 10000
time (days}
Fig. ]-Experimental data and fitted curves
is that not only does the adopted method of point plotting
demonstrate trends, but it also acts as a distribution or inten-
sity indication. It therefore gives further information in much
the same way as a histogram or scattergram.
Fig. 1 presents three theoretical curves fitted to a particular
experimental data set. Fig. 2 shows the resultant residuals as-
sociated with these inaccurate predictions of shrinkage strain.
A perfect fit of the model to the experimental data would be
a horizontal line of value zero on the residual graph. If the pre-
diction method underestimates strain by a constant value
throughout time (Fig. 1, Curve a), then the line joining the
residual data points will be parallel to the horizontal axis (Fig.
2, Curve a). A mirror image of this line below the zero axis
in Fig. 2 would represent an overestimation by a constant
value. A correction to the prediction method requires addi-
tion of the constant residual value to the prediction model. If
the rate of strain is not well predicted, even though the initial
and final strains are predicted accurately (Fig. 1, Curve b), a
hump or dip (depending on overestimation or underestima-
tion) is observed in the residual curve (Fig. 2, Curve b). To
improve the accuracy of the prediction, adjustment of the rate
factor is required in this case. Most prediction techniques in-
volve multiplication of parameters. An inaccuracy in one of
these parameters (Fig. 1, Curve c) would be observed by data
points moving away from the horizontal axis as time increases
(Fig. 2, Curve c). Again, a mirror image of this curve in Fig.
2 is possible. An interaction of these inaccuracies in predic-
tion may contribute to the overall inaccuracy of a prediction
technique. By observing the resultant residuals and using the
appropriate corrections, improvements may be made to the
prediction method. This should not be done simply for a single
set of shrinkage data on one concrete. However, if a whole
series of concretes shows similar trends, appropriate correc-
tion may be instituted.
The second method of assessing the accuracy of each pre-
diction method is that usually adopted in such studies. This
requires the calculation of coefficients of variation for devi-
ations of the values for each particular prediction model from
the test data [Eq. (1)]. The coefficients may be calculated for
any particular period of time, but usually they are calculated
for the entire drying period
ACI Materials Journal I May-June 1993
RESIDUALS
400~-----------------------n-an_c_a-ns_e_nm_tl~'v-,e
===~~~
c-cM
200 curve a
-v-v-v-v-v-v-v-v-v-v-v-v-v-v-v-v-v-v-v-
conservative
-400+--------r-------+------~r-----~
1 10 100 1000 10000
time (days}
Fig. 2-Experimental-calculated values (residuals) using
fitted curves shown in Fig. 1
[1/(n -1)1:(loz ]112
w= (1)
1/n1:Ql
where
w = coefficient of variation
J = experimental value
o =residual= experimental-predicted value
n = number of observations
It is the opinion of the writers that rather less information be-
comes available through use of the coefficient of variation
method than may be assessed from study of the residual plots.
SHRINKAGE DATA ANALYSES AND
INTERPRETATION
Data from six different Australian sources were considered
in the assessment of the accuracy of shrinkage predictions.
These data include some 1500 data points from 46 shrinkage
specimens. The data are taken from references given in Table
2. The concretes investigated are considered typical of struc-
tural concretes used in three capital cities around Australia.
Most of the concretes were measured over a period of 200
days, with a number of tests lasting over 1000 days. Sizes of
specimens vary between standard shrinkage prisms, 75 x 75
mm, and 400-mm diameter cylinders.
The six prediction models were computerized, allowing
comparisons of experimental data with model predictions at
any age. At each time of shrinkage measurement, the pre-
dicted values were calculated; these were then subtracted
from the experimental points, and the resulting residuals were
plotted.
The residuals for all data are plotted in Fig. 3 through 9 for
the different codes or models. Fig. 10 and 11 present data for
prisms alone, because in these cases their shrinkage predic-
tions are different observably from the remaining data for
cylinders. From all of these figures, the following conclu-
sions may be made.
1. It was noticed that for small-sized specimens (such as
prisms), some of the data showed a much greater deviation
from the predicted curve than that observed for larger sized
267
 ACI-209 SHRINKAGE RESIDUALS BAZANT SHRINKAGE RESIDUALS
BOO

600

c: 400
e1ii
~ 200
u
e 0

De c
-200
c c
-400
10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 10000
time (days) time (days)

Fig. 3-Experimental shrinkage values-calculated shrinkage Fig. 6-Experimental shrinkage values-calculated shrinkage
values (residuals) using ACI 209 values (residuals) using Bazant-Panula model

AS1481 SHRINKAGE RESIDUALS CEB-FIP SHRINKAGE RESIDUALS

Boo~------------------------------,

600

c: 400
"i....:!
..
~ 200
·eu 0

-200 -200

-400+-------~------~------~------~
1 10 100 1000
time (days) time (days)

Fig. 4-Experimental shrinkage values-calculated shrinkage Fig. 7-Experimental shrinkage values-calculated shrinkage
values (residuals) using AS/481 values (residuals) using CEB-FIP

AS3600 SHRINKAGE RESIDUALS diets shrinkage relatively well, but with a residual range of
BOO
±300 microstrain.
600
3. AS3600 shows a reduction in prediction accuracy within
times between 10 and 100 days. This is shown by the dip in
c: 400 the residual curve, accentuated by the intensity of the point
e...... distribution for the period between these ages. This dip is
~ 200
caused by a difference in the expected and observed shrinkage
u
e 0
rates, although the initial and ultimate shrinkages are pre-
dicted fairly well. The residuals are centrally dispersed around
-200 the axis (Fig. 5).
4. The residuals from the Bazant-Panula model (Fig. 6) fall
-400
1 10 100 1000 10000
within a narrow centralized. band for the very early age of
time (days) drying, but tend to deviate from the horizontal axis, with the
prediction becoming nonconservative as drying periods in-
Fig. 5-Experimental shrinkage values-calculated shrinkage crease. The range of the residuals after 100 days of drying
values (residuals) using AS3600
lies between 0 and +550 rnicrostrain, excluding the two di-
vergent results. The effect of aggregate restraint is suggested
specimens. This variation was noticed particularly in the case as a possible contributing cause of the inaccuracy of fit after
of ACI 209 (Fig. 3 and 10). It is suggested that this is due to drying periods greater than 12 days.
the adoption of an incorrect parameter relating to the size or 5. The shrinkage prediction of CEB-FIP (Fig. 7) is non-
shape of the specimens. After 100 days of drying the residual, conservative at almost all ages. For 100 days of drying, the
values for this code range from -200 to 600 rnicrostrain. errors in prediction are between -150 and 7 50 micros train. It
2. Overall, AS1481 appears to be conservative in its pre- can also be observed that there is a difference in the distrib-
diction of shrinkage for ages up to 100 days of drying (Fig. ution of points for the prisms and those for the cylinders (Fig.
4). For times of drying greater than 100 days, the code pre- 11).
268 ACI Materials Journal I May-June 1993
 CEB90 SHRINKAGE RESIDUALS ACI-209 PRISM RESIDUALS
800
800
600
600
c 400
e-;; c
e....
eu 200 Ill

E eu
0 E
-200

-400
1 10000
time (days) 10 100 1000 10000
time (days)

Fig. 10-Experimental shrinkage values-calculated

Fig. 8-Experimental shrinkage values-calculated shrinkage shrinkage values (residuals) using ACI 209 for standard pris-
values (residuals) using CEB90 matic specimens

NAASRA SHRINKAGE RESIDUAL CEB-FIP PRISM RESIDUALS

800 800

600 600

c 400
.Ec 400
e....
....Ill Ill
eu 200 e 200
·e ·eu 0
0

-200 -200

-400 -400
1 10 100 1000 10000 1 10 100 1000 10000
time (days) time (days)
Fig. 11-Experimental shrinkage values-calculated
Fig. 9-Experimental shrinkage values-calculated shrinkage shrinkage values (residuals) using CEB-FIP for standard
values (residuals) using NAASRA prismatic specimens

6. The prediction accuracy of CEB90 (Fig. 8) is noncon- Table 3 - Shrinkage: Coefficient of variation,
servative for almost all ages, with errors in prediction be- percent
tween -50 and 800 microstrain after 100 days of drying. If
Code Overall <100 days >100 days Prisms Cylinders
the residual graph of this code is compared with that of the
earlier CEB-FIP code, it can be noticed that there is a closer AS1481 33.6 51.1 25.0 33.2 33.6
AS3600 40.0 60.3 29.9 31.8 42.8
banding of the residual errors, thus an improvement in the ac- NAASRA 43.7 39.4 31.3 45.7 42.0
curacy of prediction. ACI 209 52.6 79.3 39.3 66.8 41.1
CEB90 55.9 50.5 50.6 56.0 55.4
7. The residuals calculated using the NAASRA code are Bazant 59.4 54.9 53.7 58.0 59.7
reasonably well dispersed around the axis, and show a vari- CEB-FIP 76.9 94.3 64.3 84.2 71.3
ation after 100 days of drying of -400 to 300 microstrain (Fig.
9).
Table 3 lists the calculated coefficients of variation for the complex in terms of data requirements, is not as accurate as
prediction models showing: (1) overall accuracy, (2) accu- some of the other methods (59 .4 percent). The CEB-FIP code
racy of points measured for less than 100 days of drying, (3) shows a poor coefficient of variation for shrinkage (76.9 per-
accuracy of points measured for greater than 100 days' cent). The CEB90 code reduces this coefficient to 55.9 per-
drying, (4) accuracy of shrinkage prisms, and (5) accuracy of cent. These values support the conclusions drawn from ob-
larger specimens. From these, the following conclusions can servation of residual figures.
be made. 2. For periods less than 100 days of drying, the Bazant-
1. The best overall accuracy is obtained by AS 1481 with a Panula prediction, when compared with the values for other
coefficient of variation of 33.6 percent. AS3600 (40 percent) codes, shows a comparatively low coefficient of variation
and NAASRA (43.7 percent) show the next best coefficients. (54.9 percent). At ages greater than 100 !lays, it shows the
Surprisingly, the Bazant-Panula method, although the most second-highest coefficient of variation (53.7 percent), for
ACI Materials Journal I May-June 1993 269
 Table 4 - Drying shrinkage recommendations (Building Research Station) 1
'
Drying shrinkage,
microstrain Remarks Recommendations for use
0-250 Possible only with nonshrinkage aggre- Suitable for all concreting purposes but essen-
gates of high elastic modulus such as tial for precast products where very low values
quartzite gravel. of shrinkage are demanded by British standard.
250-400 Produced with hard, dense aggregates of Suitable for all purposes except precast prod-
nonshrinkage or very low shrinking ucts of very low shrinkage, unless these can be
types, e.g., granite, mountain limestone, steam-cured.
blast furnace slag, and some dolerites.
400-600 Produced with hard dense aggregates of Suitable for all purposes except precast prod-
low shrinkage and softer nonshrinkable ucts of low shrinkage and thin reinforced sec-
aggregates. tions such as cladding panels, and precast
panels, and cast in situ floors, particularly if
heated, unless special precautions are taken in
design. For concretes at and above this
shrinkage level, allowance should be made for
loss of prestress.
600-800 Concretes at this and higher shrinkage Suitable for all general structural purposes ex-
levels can be produced with aggregates cept thin reinforced members as above, plain
covering a wide geological range. At this concrete exposed to the weather unless air en-
and higher levels of shrinkage, durability trainment is used, and no fines concrete.
is likely to become affected.
800-1000 Suitable only for positions where complete
drying out never occurs, for mass concrete pro-
vided the surface layers are air entrained, and
for heavy symmetrically reinforced members
not exposed to the weather.
Over 1000 Suitable only for concrete kept in a perma-
nently wet condition.
. .
Notes: Different batches of OPC may be expected to give nse to vanatmns of the order of 50 Imcrostram m the drymg shrinkage
of the concrete.
In general, the coarse aggregate plays a major role in establishing the shrinkage of the concrete, but the level does increase as
the grading of the sand becomes finer. This effect is more pronounced with highly shrinkable aggregates and, in extreme cases,
the change in grading from Zone I to Zone 4, BS882, 1954, may increase the shrinkage of concrete by 200 microstrain. It is as-
sumed that the normal recommendations for quality control given by the appropriate code of practice for the particular job will be
observed.

which the three Australian codes all have values of less than
32.0 percent.
3. There is a clear difference between the coefficients of
variation for prisms and cylinders for ACI 209, CEB-FIP, and
AS3600. The correction for size, or shape, seems to be a
problem with these models. CEB-FIP and ACI 209 predict the
shrinkage for cylinders much better than they do for prisms.
The residual plots for the prisms for these two codes are
shown in Fig. 10 and 11. As there are few data available for
larger structural sections, it is not possible to indicate whether
this inaccuracy influences small or prismatic specimens only,
or whether the correction for the code is inaccurate throughout
the whole range. It appears that further testing of large spec-
imens of various shapes would be necessary to resolve this
uncertainty.
4. For periods greater than 100 days of drying, AS1481
shows the best coefficient of variation of 25.0 percent.
It is possible to conclude from the investigation of both the
residual graphs and coefficients of variation that, if no
shrinkage data is available, the prediction thereof is best per-
formed by AS 1481 for these Australian concretes. The CEB-
FIP code, CEB90 code, and Bazant-Panula models are clearly
nonconservative. One of the problems associated with the
Bazant-Panula prediction method is that the full mix design
of the concrete is required. Unless prior data is available, this
method performs no better than simpler ones, which require
only knowledge of humidity conditions, size, and drying pe-
riod. It appears from the data presented that the codes ob-
270
tained from overseas sources may not be suitable for use with
Australian concrete unless they are modified specifically.
DESIGN RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ALLOWABLE
SHRINKAGE STRAIN
Allowing even for the degree of accuracy of AS3600, the
shrinkage values therein should not be adopted for design of
structures that may be sensitive to high shrinkages without
some further consideration. For calculation purposes, AS3600
uses a basic shrinkage of 700 microstrain with a suggested
range of ±30 percent. A concrete with shrinkage approaching
1000 micros train must be regarded to be of poor quality.
The Scottish laboratories of the Building Research Sta-
tion's developed a table of recommendations for the use of
concretes with various shrinkage levels. This table is based
on 8 x 8 x 2-in. specimens cured under sacking for 2 days,
air-cured for 26 days, then soaked in water for 4 days. At this
stage, the initial length is recorded, and the prisms are air-
dried at 122 F and 17 percent relative humidity. The recom-
mendations on the limits of shrinkage are outlined in Table
4. Although the test procedure has been criticized severely for
being "nonstandard," Edwardsl6 stated that the test proce-
dure was indeed suitable and defended its use. He concluded
from his investigation of field performance of concretes that
"none of the examples examined would tend to suggest that
any relaxation of the recommendations is called for."
Similar recommendations on the shrinkage levels of con-
cretes is outlined by the State of California Materiais and Re-
ACI Materials Journal I May-June 1993
search Laboratory. The ASTM C 157-64 apparatus and drying
method is used to characterize three types of concretes. Class
A has 28-day shrinkage ofless than 320 microstrain, Class B
less than 480 microstrain, and Class C less than 640 micros-
train. No class of concrete is designated for materials that lead
to shrinkage levels of greater than 735 microstrain. The de-
signer of structures in which shrinkage deformations are crit-
ical should be aware that concretes exhibiting shrinkages of
the order of 700 microstrain should not be used for such pur-
poses, as it will almost without exception lead to unaccept-
able deflections, cracking, and poor durability. Guidelines
should be established to recommended limits on shrinkage of
concrete in critical structural systems.
CONCLUSIONS
The method of plotting residuals enables visual interpre-
tation of the accuracy of prediction models of shrinkage for
concrete. From the data sets used, it appears that shrinkage
of most Australian concrete is best predicted by the AS 1481
method for concretes with strengths greater than 32 MPa at
28 days. In shrinkage prediction, the involvement of such fac-
tors as mix proportion does not necessarily lead to increased
accuracy, as there are many effects as yet unaccounted for,
namely, aggregate shrinkage, aggregate restraint, cement
composition and sulfate content, compaction, and curing/dry-
ing conditions. The designer should not be misled in the be-
lief that, by adding factors to the prediction, a "better" result
is achieved, particularly if no prior information on the per-
formance of a particular concrete is available.
CONVERSION FACTOR
1 MPa = 145 psi
REFERENCES
1. Clifford, D., "Creep and Shrinkage of the Gateway Bridge Concrete,"
MEng thesis, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Queensland,
1985.
ACI Materials Journal I May-June 1993
2. Clifford, D., and Koretsky, A. V., "Creep and Shrinkage of the Gateway
Bridge Concrete," Australian Road Research, V. 17, No.2, 1987, pp. 111-
128.
3. National Association of Australian State Road Authorities, Bridge De-
sign Specifications, Section 6 (NAASRA: Sydney), 1976.
4. Comite Europeen du Beton!Federation lnternationale de Ia Precon-
trainte, International Recommendations for the Design and Construction of
Concrete Structures, London, Cement and Concrete Association, Third Edi-
tion, 1978.
5. ACI Committee 209, "Prediction of Creep, Shrinkage, and Tempera-
ture Effects of Concrete Structures (ACI 209R-82),'' American Concrete In-
stitute, Detroit, 1982, 108 pp.
6. Standards Association of Australia, AS3600, SAA Australian Standard
for Concrete Structures, 1988.
7. Standards Association of Australia, AS1481, SAA Prestressed Con-
crete Code, 1974.
8. BaZa!!t, Z. P., and Panula, L., "Practical Predictions of Time Depen-
dent Deformations of Concrete," Materials and Structures, Research and
Testing (RILEM Paris), V. 11, No. 65, 1978, pp. 307-328; and V. 11, No.
66, 1978,pp.415-434.
9. Cornite Euro-Internationale du Beton, Bulletin d'lnjormation, No. 199,
Sept. 1990.
10. Bakoss, S. L.; Faulkes, K. A.; and Pulmano, V. A., "Predicted and
Measured Concrete Properties for Long Term Deflections of Reinforced
Concrete Beam," Civil Engineering, Transactions I. E. Aust, V. CE 25, No.
l, 1983, pp. 21-28.
11. Crawley, D. B., "Evaluation of Creep and Shrinkage of High Strength
Concrete in South Australia,'' Proceedings I Oth Australian Road Research
Board Conference, V. 10, No.3, 1980, pp. 253-256.
12. Currie, A. 0.; Smith, R. G.; Roper, H.; and McKenzie, G. A., "Site
Investigation of a Prestressed Concrete Slab,'' I. E. Aust Symposium on Con-
crete Research and Engineering; Serviceability of Concrete, Melbourne,
1975,49 pp.
13. Department of Main Roads, N.S.W., unpublished data from shrinkage
and creep experiments on major bridges, 1975-1986.
14. McDonald, D. B., "Selected Topics on Drying Shrinkage, Wetting
Expansion and Creep of Concrete,'' PhD thesis, School of Civil and Mining
Engineering, University of Sydney, 1990.
15. Building Research Station (U.K), ''Shrinkage of Natural Aggregates
in Concrete," Building Research Station Digest, No. 35, 1963
16. Edwards, A. G., "Properties of Concrete Made with Scottish Crushed
Rock Aggregates," Building Research Station Digest, No. 42, 1967.
271