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The solAr indusTry’s MonThly MArkeT MoniTor Volume 29,   Number   10,   October   2010

The solAr indusTry’s MonThly MArkeT MoniTor

Volume 29,   Number   10,   October   2010  

The Industry’s Oldest Newsletter | Published by Greentech Media

SEIA/GTM R ESEAR ch Qu ARTER ly Su Rv E y R ES ulTS ; PEnnSylvAnIA MAkES A BIG lEAP In ThE uS Pv MARkET

Until   this   year,   Pennsylvania   has   lagged   behind   its   neighbors,   New  York   and   New   Jersey,   in   total   solar   PV   installations.

In the first half of 2010, however, Pennsylvania has more than doubled its combined 2008 and 2009 installed capacities and has even inched ahead of New York. The reason New Jersey’s solar market has consistently been one of the strongest in the country can be attributed to its State Renewable Energy Credit (SREC) market. Pennsylvania has a similar system in place, though it is less well defined. With solar requirements ramping up in the near future, and considering

the size of the state, Pennsylvania is poised to become one of the largest markets in the region.

The SREC program in Pennsylvania is still in the early stages of development, but the state’s Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard (AEPS) requires an increasing amount of the energy sold to customers come from renewable sources. In order for energy retailers (namely PPL and PECO, which control over 50% of the market) to adhere to

continued on page 20

order for energy retailers (namely PPL and PECO, which control over 50% of the market) to
Scott Clavenna editor-in-Chief Oka Tai-Lee Production editor Andrew Krulewitz Assistant editor Kristine LaRocca Graphic

Scott Clavenna

editor-in-Chief

Oka Tai-Lee

Production editor

Andrew Krulewitz

Assistant editor

Kristine LaRocca

Graphic designer

Michelle Vessel

Copy editor

Paul Maycock

editor emeritus,

Contributing writer

Publishers Greentech Media, Inc. 1132 Massachusetts Ave Cambridge, MA 02138

e:pvnews@greentechmedia.com

w:www.greentechmedia.com

General inquiries Greentech Media welcomes all contact about any topics related to sustainable development and solar energy. We strive to provide top- quality data and analysis relating to sustainable technologies. Please feel free to contact us at the address above with comments or suggestions for improvement.

sources As an open source publication, we would be pleased to share sources for the facts and figures used in PVNews. Contact us with any requests.

Copyright © 2009 Greentech Media All rights reserved.

issn 0739-4829

2009 Greentech Media All rights reserved. issn 0739-4829 leTTer froM The ediTor This month, we relaunch

leTTer froM The ediTor

This month, we relaunch PV News, now in its 30th year of publication. PV News, the most analytical,

independent, and enthusiastic written record of the PV industry in the world, will retain its name, but upgrade its motto to reflect a new mission: “Monthly Market Monitor of the PV Industry.” When Paul Maycock of Photovoltaic Energy Systems launched PV News in September 1981 as a “monthly report

of pertinent, valuable, factual data of the PV industry,” he began a tradition of reporting and analysis that

was singularly his own, and built a remarkably loyal following over the next 28 years. In this relaunch, we intend to build on that legacy, and continue the tradition of advertising independence and detailed market analysis with our team here at Greentech Media and GTM Research.

You’ll see more market research than in the past, and more incisive news-gathering. In addition, we’re adding two new features to PV News that will appear in each issue: North American and European

Feed-In Tariff trackers, and a Utility Project Tracker. These will provide readers a monthly update on two

of the most important areas of the PV market today: public support for PV and utility-scale PV projects.

We’ll also be adding special reports from our team of analysts, as well as pulling data from ongoing research projects that are underway here at GTM Research.

An important development for us at GTM Research was our recent selection by the Solar Energy Industries

Association (SEIA) to be the official data collection and analysis firm for the U.S. solar market. Our work

in this area is underway, and we’ll be releasing quarterly reports with SEIA on the state of the U.S. PV,

solar heating and cooling, and CSP production and demand markets and a five-year rolling demand forecast. PV News subscribers will benefit from this work as we highlight unique findings from the data collection process and highlight pockets of growth or rapid change among the states in the U.S.

We welcome your feedback on our new look and content, and appreciate your continued support of this esteemed newsletter.

PV news in hisTory

10  Years a gO i N PVNews  Hist O rY  |  s OL ar w O r LD  PU r CH ases B aYer s OL ar

 s OL ar w O r LD  PU r CH ases B aYer s OL ar SolarWorld has purchased

SolarWorld has purchased an 82% share of Bayer Solar, the cast-ingot poly silicon wafer supplier. Bayer AG will retain an 18% stake in Bayer Solar. SolarWorld’s Executive Board Chairman, Frank H. Asbeck, said their decision to acquire Bayer Solar was based on the company’s solid management and a desire to keep wafer production in Germany. Bayer Solar was Germany’s only silicon wafer manufacturer, with

a world market share of 20 percent (this would be wafers supporting over 40 MW of PV cells). More than 30% of Bayer Solar’s production goes to Japan.

25   Years  a g O  i N  PVNews   Hist O rY  |   J a Pa N ese  PU s H   FO r siL i CON  i ND e P eND e NC e

Japan is enlarging both its silicon refining and cell production base, with the following industrial developments reported: 1) Toyo Soda Industry has a joint venture with Siltechs (USA). Reportedly, they have bought 80% of Siltech’s stock and will manufacture wafers this year. 2) Tokuyama Soda, which has been manufacturing 200 tonnes annually of polycrystal silicon, has increased its capacity to 1,000 tonnes per year. 3) Kawasaki Seitetsu has bought 25% of the stock of NBK of Silicon Valley, California for 1.8 billion yen. The company is expected to manufacture silicon cells. 4) Nippon Steel has established a new company, Nittetsu Electron, which will start manufacturing single crystal solar cells in June, 1986. 5) Niho Kokan has bought the manufacturing technology of polycrystal silicon from General Electric and will start manufacturing polycrystal silicon next year. The company plans to purchase silica and refine it to high-purity polycrystal silicon

sPeCiAl rePorT

cRySTAllInE SIlIcon Pv - lookInG foRwARd To 2011

An ExcERPT fRoM ThE nEw GTM RESEARch REPoRT ‘Pv PRoducTIon, TEchnoloGy, And coST foREcAST’ BY sHYam  m e H ta

On the surface, 2009 was also was another record-breaking year for the industry, with over 7 GW of modules installed, total module production of 8.95 GW, and cell production of 10.66 GW – a 51% increase over 2008 cell production of 7.05 GW (itself an 88% increase over 2007). Still, as shown in Figure 1, growth in supply easily exceeded that in demand on the whole. Installations increased by only 24% last year after growing at close to 50% for the better part of last decade, while capacity expansions that were set into place in 2008 resulted in available module supply in 2009 being almost twice that of demand. However, as discussed below, a large percentage of this capacity was not bankable, which helped to insulate the rest of the market from a prolonged period of overcapacity.

Fig U re   1:  gLOB a L  PV  sUPPLY V s.   Dema ND ,   2007-2009

The high-level results in Figure

1 mask the fact that 2009 was one of the most challenging years for PV suppliers in recent memory. The credit crisis, the global recession, the evaporation of demand in Spain (the largest PV market in 2008), and a harsh German winter led to a severe slump in installations in late 2008 and early 2009, and the consequent overcapacity and inventory build led to sharp price declines all across the value chain. However, the situation took a turn for the better in the second half of 2009, as the German market rebounded strongly, aided by looming policy uncertainty in 2010 and the return of project financing in the second half of 2009. As a result of being forced to idle most of their capacity at the beginning of the year, top-tier manufacturers found themselves sold out in the last quarter of the year, during which an unprecedented 2.4 GW was installed in Germany alone. With project economics still working in their favor and established low-cost players (First Solar, Suntech, Yingli, Trina) being capacity constrained, even high-cost manufacturers saw strong demand.

constrained, even high-cost manufacturers saw strong demand. The robust demand environment (fueled primarily by the

The robust demand environment (fueled primarily by the German market) has continued well into 2010 thus far. As shown in Figure 2, eight cell producers alone shipped over 1.9 GW in the Q2 2010 -- three times what was shipped in Q1 2009. Most bankable producers are sold out for the rest of the year, and consequently, prices, which had been in free-fall for much of 2009, have stabilized across the value chain, actually experiencing a 5% to 10% increase in the second and third quarters of 2010.

Fig U re   2:   Q U arter LY  Ce LL sH i P me N ts,  s e L e C te D  Pr ODUC ers,Q3   2008   -   Q2   2010

L e C te D  Pr ODUC ers,Q3   2008   -   Q2   2010

technology  trends

Crystalline silicon cell production in 2009 was 8.02 GW, a 42% increase over 2008. As discussed below, the majority of these cells were manufactured in the low-cost locations of China and Taiwan. Total c-Si module production in 2009 was 6.3 GW. Overall, crystalline silicon still dominated the PV technology landscape, with a cell production share of 81% and a module production share of 78%: for cells, this breaks into a 75% share for “plain vanilla” mono- and multi- crystalline cells, and a 6% share for high-efficiency “super” mono-crystalline cells made by SunPower and Sanyo.

Fig U re   3:   2009  gLOB a L  PV   Ce LL  Pr ODUC ti ON BY t e CHNOLO g Y  ( mw- DC )

In a year where most producers considered themselves fortunate to expand marginally, CdTe producer First Solar doubled its production, from 504 MW in 2008 to a staggering 1,011 MW; the company alone contributed 10% of global supply. Largely thanks to the First Solar factor, thin film’s market share increased yet again from 14% to 19% in cells, and from 15% to 22% in modules. This top- line result masks the turmoil faced by almost every other thin film producer in the space, as an abundance of cheap c-Si modules and lenders’ unwillingness to finance nascent companies

and technologies combined to make life very difficult indeed; the top six thin film producers made up almost 70% of production, while the rest were left with only scraps to feed on. Overall, 2009 thin film production stood at 1.98 GW, representing another

doubling over the previous year’s production of 966 MW. Amorphous silicon constituted 40% of this, or 796 MW, with Sharp and United Solar as the top producers in this segment. 2009 was also the first year to witness

or 796 MW, with Sharp and United Solar as the top producers in this segment. 2009

more than 100 MW of CIGS production (166 MW, to be exact), compared to only 74 MW in 2008: progress in CIGS is definitely occurring, albeit at a steady pace, thanks to the efforts of such producers as Solar Frontier (formerly known as Showa Shell Sekiyu), Würth Solar, and the ever-controversial Solyndra.

r egional  trends

Breaking down 2009 production by region confirms what the industry has known for quite some time now: manufacturing cells and modules is now a

game of low-cost production. This is especially true for standard crystalline silicon cells, which have become highly commoditized with little perceived differentiation across suppliers. Almost half (49%) of the cells made in 2009 came from China and Taiwan; when limited to crystalline silicon cells, this number jumps to 56%. With regard to modules, these numbers are slightly lower (40% share for all technologies and 47% for just c-Si).

Fig U re   4:   2009  gLOB a L  PV  mODUL e   Pr ODUC ti ON BY t e CHNOLO g Y  (

mw- DC )

e   Pr ODUC ti ON BY t e CHNOLO g Y  ( mw- DC ) Fig U

Fig U re   5:   2009  gLOB a L  PV   Ce LL  Pr ODUC ti ON BY r egi ON  ( mw- DC )

PV   Ce LL  Pr ODUC ti ON BY r egi ON  ( mw- DC ) The continued

The continued growth in Chinese and Taiwanese manufacturing has come at the expense of both European and Japanese producers. European cell production actually experienced

a slight (1%) decline compared to 2008, and its production

share, after remaining steadily

in the mid-20% range through

the last half-decade, dipped a full 10%, from 28% to 18%. This simply illustrates the disparity between cost structures in these two regions; even the most established European producers incurred heavy losses in 2009, simply unable to compete profitably against aggressive pricing strategies adopted by Chinese firms, which correctly assessed the existing environment as an opportunity to

steal share. Japanese producers expanded by 19%, aided no

Fig U re   6:   2009  gLOB a L  PV  mODUL e   Pr ODUC ti ON BY r egi ON  ( mw- DC ))

 mODUL e   Pr ODUC ti ON BY r egi ON  ( mw- DC )) doubt by a

doubt by a resurgence in the Japanese market, which more than doubled in 2009 to reach 484

MW of demand. Still, overall share declined to just 14% for cells and

a mere 10% for modules. This is

a far cry from just five years ago, when Japanese firms made up over 50% of the market.

U.S. share of global cell and module production remained relatively flat, at 6% and 9% respectively. As was the case in 2008, the bulk of this came from three producers: First Solar (CdTe) in Ohio, United Solar (a-Si) in Michigan, and Evergreen Solar (string ribbon) in Massachusetts. Thin film still comprised the majority (56%) of U.S. cell production, but was lower compared to 2008 (68%).

top  Producers

With regard to cells, First Solar claimed pole position for cell manufacturing in 2009, with 1,011 MW of modules produced, mostly out of its giant facility in Malaysia (another low-cost location on account of its generous tax

holidays). The top four positions represent a permutation of sorts: Q-Cells, number one in 2008, fell to the number four slot, while Sharp, Suntech Power, and First Solar each moved up one place. Numbers 5, 6, and 7 are occupied by Yingli, JA Solar, and Kyocera respectively; again, the same three firms occupied those slots in 2008, albeit in a different order. All in all,

therefore, the top 20 list looks much the same as it did in 2008, with the most significant changes being related to Chinese firms moving up and European/Japanese firms (with the exception of Sharp) moving down a few notches. The biggest jumps were made by Taiwanese E-Ton Solar (#24 to #15) and Chinese Ningbo Solar (#30 to #14). The top 20 firms made up 74% of global production, almost the same as in 2008. As the industry matures and successful producers expand capacity disproportionately, one would expect this to increase over

Fig U re   7:  tOP  20  gLOB a L  Ce LL  Pr ODUC ers,   2009   ( mw- DC

expect this to increase over Fig U re   7:  tOP  20  gLOB a L  Ce

Fig U re   8:  tOP  20  gLOB a L mODUL e   Pr ODUC ers,   2009   ( mw- DC )

a L mODUL e   Pr ODUC ers,   2009   ( mw- DC ) Fig U

Fig U re   9:  tOP  20  gLOB a L w a F er   Pr ODUC ers,   2009   ( mw- DC )

a L w a F er   Pr ODUC ers,   2009   ( mw- DC )

the long term. And if any further proof were needed of Chinese and Taiwanese dominance, a look at the names on this list will suffice: 12 of the top 20 firms are based in that region.

The list of top module producers in 2009 heavily overlaps that for cells, as the largest PV manufacturers produce both components. There is a much more

significant European presence

in modules compared to cells,

partly because Taiwanese firms by and large are pure-play cell

manufacturers, and proximity to local demand is a source of competitive advantage for European module players.

The list of top wafer producers in 2009 is dominated by large Chinese players, with a few notable exceptions (REC, Solarworld). Chinese wafer production is split between essentially pure-play wafer manufacturers like LDK and Renesola (both of which have actually recently entered into module production, albeit on

a much smaller scale than their

wafer businesses), and vertically integrated players such as Sharp, Yingli, and Trina.

Crystalline  silicon

s

upply  Constraints,  Capacity  

e

xpansions   Underway

Germany’s late and sudden surge in the back half of 2009 and strong global growth throughout 2010 have meant that even semi-bankable manufacturers have found themselves capacity-constrained and unable to fully exploit the current market environment. Consequently, after a relatively sober 2009 where c-Si wafer, cell, and module capacity grew by 30%, 27%, and 37% respectively, 2010 is witnessing a major build-out in crystalline silicon manufacturing capacity, as shown in Figure 10. Each segment is expected to grow by around 45% to 50% in 2010, with a large majority of the incremental capacity coming online in the second half of 2010 (especially wafers).

Fig U re   10:   CrY sta LL i N e  s i L i CON m a NUFa C t U ri N g   Ca Pa C it Y,   2008   -   2010 e  ( mw- DC )

g   Ca Pa C it Y,   2008   -   2010 e  ( mw-

Fig U re   11:   2010  mODUL e  e x Pa N si ON s,   Ba N ka BL e   Pr ODUC ers   ( mw- DC )

N si ON s,   Ba N ka BL e   Pr ODUC ers   (

As one would expect, most of this additional capacity is being added in the China/ Taiwan region (cells/modules in China, mostly cells in Taiwan). Figure 11 details the largest expansion plans for module producers in 2010. In a few cases, expansion plans have been revised upward multiple times through the year. While this capacity will no doubt be well utilized in late 2010 and possibly even early 2011, it remains to be seen what impact such a jump in capacity (and hence available supply) will have on supply-demand and pricing dynamics past that point, as an uncapped German market becomes less and less viable via significant subsidy cuts. To the extent this capacity needs to be utilized in 2011, we could see substantial price cuts from Chinese manufacturers, which would create significant challenges for their competitors, especially in more cost-sensitive markets.

technological i nnovation

Efficiencies for most c-Si firms have registered only incremental gains over the last several years. Over the past year, however, a number of prominent players have announced the development of new cell technologies to drive step- function improvements in efficiency. Figure 12 details the firms that stand at the forefront of crystalline silicon efficiency, both at the current juncture and looking to the future. Although SunPower and Sanyo both have been ahead of the rest of the pack for years and continue to raise the efficiency bar, they have done so at the expense (quite literally) of a higher cost structure. What is noteworthy about other firms on this list is that they are attempting to raise efficiencies (although to lower levels than the two aforementioned companies) without imposing a meaningful increase in costs.

That each of these seven firms is employing a different approach to commercializing high-efficiency products should dispel notions that we have reached the end of the road as concerns technological progress in crystalline silicon manufacturing. As with the larger question of PV absorber materials, there is a long way to go before the dust will truly settle on which variant(s) of c-Si will emerge as the dominant leader, if any. It can be safely assumed, however, that the success or failure of the firms on this list will, to a significant degree, determine which technology paths the current mass of relatively undifferentiated c-Si producers will follow over the next five years.

Fig U re   12:  eFF i C ie NCY  Lea D ers   i N  CrY sta LL i N e  s i L i CON  PV

     

high-

   

Firm

Technology

DescripTion

eFFiciency

commercializeD

assessmenT

proDucT

cell eFFiciency

     

sTaTus

 

JA Solar

SECIUM

Uses nanoparticle ink from equipment vendor Innovalight

Pilot (production began May 2010; commercial production expected H2 2010)

18.9% (pilot)

Since JA is already the cost leader in cell manufacturing, SECIUM (if ramped up to volume

successfully) could provide it pole position on both cost and efficiency fronts. However, low barrier

to

entry for competitors also using Innovalight

 

product.

Sanyo

Heterojunction with Intrinsic thin film (HIT)

Hybrid of monocrystalline silicon surrounded by ultra-thin amorphous silicon layers

Volume production (2009: 255 MW)

19.8%

Costs considerably higher than standard c-Si; should hold #2 spot in commercial efficiency

in

near-term, but this will matter less unless it

   

achieves step-function improvements in cost. Enjoys competitive advantage in Japan, given space constraints.

Solarfun

Selective emitter

“Low surface doping concentration everywhere on illuminated surface of cell except directly beneath metal electrode”

Development (first

18.5% (development)

Planning on converting 160 MW of cell capacity

monocrystalline

shipments expected

to

Selective Emitter; if successful, would improve

Q1 2011)

competitive positioning substantially, but targets may not be realistic inside timeframe.

Suniva

ARTisun

Has its own paste and texture recipes, is able to customize and optimize every layer of the cell design to its own specifications

Volume production (2009: 16 MW)

18.3%

Lower efficiency than SunPower/Sanyo, but has

monocrystalline

a

much better cost structure. This, combined with

 

its current efficiency advantage over other firms, makes it competitively positioned for right now; future competitiveness depends on development of differentiated technology.

SunPower

All-back contact

Moves metal contacts to the back of the wafer, maximizes working cell area, eliminates redundant wires

Volume production (2009: 398 MW)

22.0%

Gen 3 to exceed 24%; likely to be the efficiency leader for foreseeable future. As company approaches efficiency ceiling, high cost structure will come under increased scrutiny. Downstream business affords it some measure of insulation.

monocrystalline

Suntech

Pluto

Unique texturing technology with lower reflectivity ensures more sunlight can be absorbed throughout the day even without direct solar radiation; thinner metal lines on the top surface reduce shading loss

Low-volume (2010 run rate of 4 MW per month)

19.0%

Offers higher efficiency with potential to simultaneously lower costs; company has had trouble ramping production beyond its current levels of 4 MW/month.

Power

monocrystalline

Trina Solar

Quad Max

Square shape allows it to harvest more sunlight by avoiding surface area loss typical with traditional monocrystalline cells, which are octagonal-shaped

Development

18.1% (pilot)

Lowest current efficiency amongst high- efficiency initiatives, but will matter less if Quad Max does not represent meaningful increase in manufacturing costs. Quad Max would drive 0.6% increase in module efficiency, which would boost product margins.

square

(first shipments

monocrystalline

expected Q3

2010)

Yingli

PANDA N-type

Greater impurity tolerance and does not suffer from light-induced degradation that conventional P-type cells do. Yingli claims the module will also have better performance under high temperature/low light

Pilot (commercial launch in Q3

18.5% (pilot)

N-type’s higher impurity tolerance also gives Yingli the option of using lower quality (thus cheaper) polysilicon for its cells, which confers a direct cost advantage. This would further cement the firm’s position as the lowest-cost c-Si manufacturer in the world. Also plans on leveraging Innovalight silicon ink solution.

Solar

monocrystalline,

nanoparticle ink

2010)

Fig U re   13:   Q/Q   Pri C e  mOV eme N t,   Q1   2008   -   Q2   2010 )

C e  mOV eme N t,   Q1   2008   -   Q2   2010

Fig U re   14:  r e C e N t   D O w N stream  mOV eme N ts   i N  CrY sta LL i N e  s i L i CON

DaTe

Firm(s) involveD

Type

DescripTion

Oct 2009

MEMC - SunEdison

Acquisition - Developer

Wafer manufacturer integrates downstream into project development; allows utilization of cash on balance sheet and exploits value chain synergies

Nov 2009

Applied Materials - Advent Solar

Acquisition

-

Module

Equipment vendor purchases back-contact Emitter-wrap-through IP, aims to leverage in future equipment design

Technology

Jan 2010

Motech - GE

 

Purchase - Module Plant

Cell manufacturer integrates downstream into module production; provides foothold into U.S. market

Feb 2010

LDK - Best Solar

 

Purchase - Module Plant

Wafer manufacturer integrates downstream into module production

Mar 2010

China Sunergy - CEEG SST, CEEG New Energy

Acquisition

-

Module

Cell manufacturer integrates downstream into module production

Producers

May 2010

MEMC - Solaicx

 

Acquisition - Wafer Producer

Acquisition of high-efficiency mono crystalline wafer diversifies MEMC’s manufacturing portfolio, as most wafer production is done via outsourcing

Jul 2010

JA

Solar

-

Shanghai

Acquisition - Module Producer

Cell manufacturer integrates downstream into module production

Jinglong Solar

Downstream   integration   and  acquisitions

The market turn of late 2008 led to a violent shift in pricing power from the upstream segments of the PV value chain into the hands of installers and developers. With their distance from the end-customer, many cell and wafer firms were left vulnerable to the vagaries of the market, and suffered large price declines and losses as a result; as shown in Figure 13, price drops in wafers and cells during the oversupply period were steeper and more persistent than those for modules.

As a consequence of this, the past twelve months have witnessed a series of downstream movements by upstream players, the most noteworthy of which are detailed in Figure 14. As shown, these have taken various forms, from the purchase of a prominent developer (SunEdison) by a large wafer manufacturer (MEMC), to cell firms (JA Solar, China Sunergy) acquiring module suppliers, to cell and wafer firms purchasing module plants from other companies (LDK – Best Solar, Motech – GE). However, in each case, the following arguments come into play:

1. Moving downstream gives a company a dedicated sales channel for its primary product (wafers/cells).

2. Greater proximity to the end-customer gives a company more control over its pricing destiny and allows for higher profit margins (by capturing the margin at both cell and module levels, for example).

3. The company’s downstream business has a competitive advantage since it has lower input costs than its competitors.

4. Module production is a low value-add step and has very little complexity or technological risk. Moreover, it has low capital risk for Chinese companies since most module assembly there is done manually.

Fig U re  15:  r e C e N t  C ON tra C t  m a NUFa C t U ri N g  a greeme N ts  i N CrY sta LL i N e  s i L i CON

It is interesting to note that acquisitions of the type represented by the recent MEMC-SunEdison deal, whereby upstream players move into system sales and/or project development, have been few and far between in the space. There

was a great deal of talk on the part of module firms about integrating downstream back in the first half of 2009 in order to reduce exposure to sales

fluctuations and protect margins, but by and large, this situation has not materialized (the only other prominent example

is Q-Cells, which integrated downstream organically). A major reason for this is the shortage of bankable capacity once

demand picked back up in H2 2009, leading to a return to 20%+ margins for many suppliers. As the industry enters more prolonged down-cycles and becomes more commoditized, module producers (especially high-cost ones) may once again have to confront the issue of downstream integration as a means of differentiation and margin protection.

DaTe

pv Firm

oem Firm

DescripTion

Apr 2009

Evergreen Solar

Jiawei

Initial 100 MW cell, module production plant in China

Jun 2009

SunPower

Jabil Circuit

100

MW module assembly plant in Mexico

Oct 2009

BP Solar

Jabil Circuit

45

MW module assembly in Mexico, 90 MW in Hungary

Mar 2010

Q-Cells

Flextronics

200

MW module assembly plant in Malaysia

Apr 2010

SunPower

Flextronics

75

MW module assembly plant in U.S.

May 2010

SunPower

Solar Semiconductor

Module assembly for standard multi c-Si Serengeti product line

Fig U re  16:  r e C e N t LY aNNOUNC e D C - s i  mODUL e  a ssem BLY P L a N ts  i N N O rt H a meri C a

Contract  manufacturing  

Another key trend in the crystalline silicon PV industry over the past year and a half

has been the handing over of

component manufacturing to

contract producers; Figure 15 displays recent activity in this domain. Generally, the companies concerned have been higher- cost manufacturers with strong

brand names, such as BP Solar,

Q-Cells, and SunPower, and the

prime beneficiaries have been

Jabil Circuit and Flextronics. As

can be seen, there is a heavy bias towards outsourcing module assembly: being a low-IP, low value-add step, it is particularly well suited to being contracted out. Unsurprisingly, most of the contractors’ facilities (which have dedicated amounts of capacity reserved for specific customers) are located in low-cost locations such as Malaysia (which has a ten-year income-tax holiday), Hungary, China, and Mexico.

     

esTimaTeD

proDucTion

Firm

locaTion

value chain

capaciTy (mW)

sTarT DaTe

Canadian Solar

Ontario, Canada

Module

200

2011

Jabil

Mexico

Module

145

2010

Silfab

Ontario, Canada

Module

120

2011

Flextronics

California, US

Module

75

2010

Opsun Panels Ontario

Ontario, Canada

Module

50

2010

Siliken

Ontario, Canada

Module

50

2011

Solar Semiconductor

Ontario, Canada

Module

50

2011

Wanxiang

Illinois, US

Module

36

2010

Suntech Power

Arizona, US

Module

30

2010

Kyocera

California, US

Module

30

2010

Heliene

Ontario, Canada

Module

30

2010

Photowatt

Ontario, Canada

Module

30

2010

Outsourcing production (particularly of modules) to a contract producer makes a great deal of sense: contracting decreases capital expenditure, operating expenses, and employment risk, and ultimately manufacturing cost, and allows the customer to focus its capital and energy on higher-value functions, such as R&D, sales, marketing, and branding. Given that c-Si PV is a mature technology and is being increasingly commoditized over time, one should expect this trend to gain further traction going forward. The question is which manufacturers are likely to pursue it, and whether it will extend into wafers, cells, and thin-film PV production, as well.

m odule   Plants s pring   Up   in   North  america

A notable trend in 2009 and 2010 has been a stream of announcements from crystalline silicon suppliers about constructing

manufacturing facilities in Canada and the U.S. In the case of Canada (see page 15), an extremely generous feed-in tariff (US $0.44-0.78/kWh depending on system size) and a high domestic content requirement for FIT eligibility (60% from 2011) in Ontario

have led to a flurry of module plant announcements from manufacturers in that province. Barring a few exceptions, most of these projects are in the 30-50 MW range, which may be a wise move, given that the long-term sustainability of this approach (especially at current rates) remains in question. Similar considerations have driven expansion decisions in the U.S., as well, as these are expectations of a rapidly growing commercial and utility-scale market and the preference for locally sourced modules as a result of the “Buy American” clause in the Obama Administration’s stimulus act. Moreover, in an effort to create “green jobs,” many cities and states in the U.S. offer generous incentives to would-be manufacturers, including tax credits, exemptions, loans, and grants. The logic on part of manufacturers, therefore, is that having a local presence will allow them to exploit manufacturing incentives, obtain stimulus funds, and increase visibility to end-customers, particularly utilities.

Figure 16 details recently announced plants in North America; in total, this will amount to almost 1 GW in additional capacity in the region by mid-2011. As shown, there is a clear preference for module assembly lines. This is understandable, since modules are the closest step in the value chain to the end-user and locating module production close to demand reduces sometimes hefty shipping costs and drives higher visibility to the customer. Whether this trend continues will depend on the ramp-up in domestic installations, the cost spread between Western and Eastern countries, and how strictly domestic content provisions (which are rather loosely defined in the U.S. at present) are enforced.

e uropean  m anufacturers

European manufacturers had a horrendous first half of 2009, where they were faced with non-existent demand followed by brutal price wars. The road from then to now has been slow and painful; firms have faced large layoffs and capacity shutdowns (Q-Cells, REC), painful restructurings (Q-Cells, Solon), balance-sheet crises (REC, Solon), and sustained losses (Q-Cells, REC, Solon); only SolarWorld emerged stronger from the market turn, thanks to its vertically integrated manufacturing model, diversified manufacturing presence, and strong presence in the German residential market. In the last two quarters, however, price stability and robust demand has allowed European manufacturers to rebound strongly: most have had a successful 2010 to-date, and the outlook for the rest of the year is extremely positive, as well. Most of these manufacturers have also recovered to a point where they are now expanding capacity across all steps of the value chain.

Figure 17 provides an update on the current status of prominent European manufacturers. It is interesting to note the variety of strategies and business model adjustments that have been undertaken by the firms on this list. These include:

» Focus on vertical integration (Solarworld, REC)

» Production expansion in low-cost location (Q-Cells, REC)

» Downstream integration into modules and systems (Q-Cells)

»Acquisition of a technology-diversified portfolio of companies with a main emphasis on c-Si cell manufacturing (Bosch )

» Focus on less price-sensitive markets (Centrosolar)

It is also interesting to note that many of these manufacturers have managed to increase their sales to foreign (i.e., non-German) markets substantially in 2010. This reflects awareness that Germany post-2010 will no longer be as lucrative a hunting ground on account of the severity of the FIT reductions that will hit starting in 2011 (see pages 22-23). Here, key markets include Italy, France, and Eastern Europe. Whether these firms will be able to handle the inevitable penetration of Chinese manufacturers into these markets as well without major changes to their business model is, however, questionable.

Fig U re   17:  k e Y eU r OP ea N C - s i  m a NUFa C t U rers   a ND  C U rre N t  s tat U s

Firm

locaTion

polysilicon

WaFers

cells

moDules

Thin-Film

sysTems

projecT DevelopmenT

 

2009 c-si proDucTion (mW)

 

ye 2010 c-si capaciTy (mW)

recenT DevelopmenTs

Aleo Solar

Germany,

     

     

139

200

Produced 133 MW in H1 2010; aims at EUR 480M revenue, 50% foreign sales in 2010; looks to be acquired by Bosch shortly

Spain

Bosch Solar

Germany

√ √

 

130

(wafers), 170

180

(wafers),

Incorporated CIS producer Johanna under Bosch name; has controlling interest in Aleo, may acquire; opened new cell plant in Q3 2010; entered into power plant construction

(cells), 0 (modules)

370

(cells), 90

(modules)

Centrosolar

Germany

     

 

93

150

Business focus on selling complete residential rooftop systems, including BIPV and thin-film; 8% EBIT margin in H1 2010; production at full capacity since May 2009; France is strongest market for components and systems

Q-Cells

Germany,

   

537

(cells)

1100

(cells)

Undertook change of strategic direction in mid- 2009; formed systems business (QCI) in 2009, entered module sales (via Flextronics) in 2010; ramping up Malaysia fab; divesting from all thin-film investments except Solibro

Malaysia

   

REC

Germany,

√ √

       

818

(wafers), 134

2104

(wafers),

Singapore production ramping up on all three fronts, expected module production in 2010 = 4X 2009 levels; solar business still running at small operating loss in Q2

Norway,

(cells) 116 (modules)

455

(cells), 224

Singapore

(modules)

Solarworld

Germany, US,

√ √

   

 

648

(wafers), 194

1250

(wafers),

Total H1 2010 shipments at 377 MW and all production sites running at full capacity; Expanding capacity for all products at all locations; H1 y/y revenue up 50%

South Korea

(cells) 288 (modules)

625

(cells), 950

(modules)

Solon

Germany, US,

     

132

(modules)

435

(modules)

Successful refinancing in Q2 2010; Positive cashflow in Q2 2010; expects 250 MW production in 2010; break-even EBIT; weak balance sheet affecting systems business. New industrial module lowers costs by 20%

Italy

   

Crystalline Silicon PV: Looking Forward to 2011 is an excerpt from the new GTM Research report ‘PV Production, Technology and Cost: 2010 Forecast.’ This authoritative report contains a comprehensive analysis of the PV supply chain. It provides detailed estimates and forecasts of PV cost structure, technical characteristics (efficiency, degradation), volumes (capacity and production) for all major components (wafers, cells, and modules) and all major technologies through 2013. Additionally, it details projected market share and selling prices by technology through the bottom-up construction of global supply and demand curves for PV, and profiles the leading 150 manufacturers in the PV space.

The full ‘PV Production, Technology and Cost: 2010 Forecast’ is available for purchase at

www.gtmresearch.com.

noRTh AMERIcAn nEwS

s une dison  awarded   16.7 mw 

of  s olar  Projects

SunEdison has been awarded a ground-mounted 14.5MW solar service contract with the Davis- Monthan Air Force Base (DMAFB) in Tuscon, Arizona and a contract for 2.2MW of rooftop installations for GE Capital Real Estate.

The 14.5MW solar installation is made possible through a solar power service agreement in which SunEdison will finance, design, construct, operate and maintain the approximately 130-acre ground-mounted solar deployment. SunEdison will also maintain a long- term ground lease agreement with DMAFB for the use of their land for the solar installation. In return, DMAFB will purchase the energy produced from the solar power plant to offset their demand from the grid at long-term predictable energy pricing. There are no upfront costs required from DMAFB for the solar deployment. When completed, the 14.5MW solar farm will produce approximately 31.5 million kWh of energy annually and over 575 million kWh over twenty years. It is expected that once completed, the 14.5MW solar power plant will deliver 35% of DMAFB’s total base load of energy.

For GE Capital Real Estate, SunEdison will also finance, build, own, operate, monitor and maintain photovoltaic solar energy systems with capacity totaling 2.2MW. GE Capital Real Estate will receive lease revenue for rooftop space allocated to the projects, without any upfront capital

equipment costs. Construction on three of the 15 rooftop PV systems is expected to begin this fall. The majority of projects will be located in the Greater Toronto Area, including Vaughan, Brampton, Burlington, Markham and Mississauga, with additional systems located in London. The projects will be hosted at GE Capital Real Estate facilities, and the Ontario Power Authority will purchase the energy produced under the terms of Ontario’s Feed-In Tariff Program (see pages 24-25).

www.sunedison.com

m ia solé   to   s upply  juwi  with 

600 mw  of  C igs Panels

MiaSolé has signed a multi-year purchase agreement to supply juwi Solar with 600MW of their CIGS (Copper Indium Gallium Selenide) solar panels. This order is a huge boon to MiaSolé, which earlier in 2010 set the goal to ship 22MW worth of panels by the end of the year. As outlined by the agreement, MiaSolé will ship 50MW to juwi in 2011.

www.miasole.com

www.juwisolar.com

UL  

Certification  for  Flexible  Cigs  Panels; moves Closer to market

San Jose-based SoloPower has announced that their flexible CIGS panels have received UL Certification, which the company claims to be an industry first.

soloPower 

earns 

PV news

SoloPower is targeting the commercial and industrial flat-roof market with applications that favor a lightweight, non-penetrating flexible solar solution. The SoloPower panel can be rolled up and walked on, and the flexible units can be affixed to the roof with an adhesive or mounted on a lightweight non-penetrating rack.

adhesive or mounted on a lightweight non-penetrating rack. Source: Ascent-Solar SoloPower’s thin-film modules were

Source: Ascent-Solar

SoloPower’s thin-film modules were tested to UL 1703, the standard for safety for PV module manufacturing. SoloPower’s CIGS competitors are also aiming towards UL and IEC approval.

As reported by Greentech Media, according to Brian Blackman of Ascent Solar, another flexible CIGS solar vendor, “If you don’t have IEC, then UL is just a symbol. We’ve submitted our modules for IEC approval. From our perspective, it’s irrelevant unless you have the IEC -- you have to have the 20-year lifetime.” Ascent just released its new WaveSol module. The five- meter, flexible panel is capable of producing up to 320 watts.

www.solopower.com

Ontario   Ups   m andates   for  Domestic   Content   in   2011,  

Concerns   a bout   s upply   a rise   w hile   Others   a nticipate  

m arket   Boom

With its aggressive solar feed-in tariff (see pages 24-25), Ontario’s solar market grew rapidly in 2010. The number of 2010 installations is on track to rise over 250% from the 2009 figure. However, new regulations that mandate the use of locally manufactured PV supplies could cause growth to slow in 2011.

In 2010, 40% of the components for residential installations and 50% of the components for commercial installations have to be sourced locally. In 2011, all installations must adhere to a 60% domestic content requirement.

Japan has even filed an official complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO) over the situation. In the European Union, laws prevent countries from mandating local content use and Japan is concerned that pricing guarantees offered in Ontario require subsidies that are not allowed under international trade law.

The Italian company Silfab has already registered a new Canadian subsidiary, Silfab Ontario Inc., and since last June has invested CAD $15 million into the project. With a 100,000-square- foot manufacturing space already acquired, the company is ramping up for production. In early September, Silfab announced that it would be broadening its manufacturing abilities to produce not only its mono- and multi-crystalline modules, but also OEM products for outside partners who are looking to meet the domestic content requirement.

While this new mandate in Ontario will drive job and industry growth in the province, there will certainly be a shortage of components for at least the first quarter of 2011. Companies such as Canadian Solar, Fronius, Silfab, and SMA stand to reap the benefits of this program.

fit.powerauthority.on.ca

Dow  r eadies   for  Production   of   solar  s hingles

About a year after announcing its Powerhouse Solar Shingles, Dow Chemical is now preparing to start mass production at its Midland, Michigan factory. The shingles are solar panels that can be integrated into rooftops with standard asphalt materials.

In 2007, the company received $20 million in funding from the U.S. Department of Energy to develop ‘building-integrated’ solar arrays for the residential and commercial markets. What they came up with is a CIGS panel that also acts as protection for a house’s roof. This design reduces installation costs because the conventional roofing shingles and solar generating shingles are installed simultaneously by roofing contractors; no specialized skills or knowledge of solar array installations are required.

or knowledge of solar array installations are required. Source: Dow Solar Dow expects at least 100

Source: Dow Solar

Dow expects at least 100 jobs will be created in preparation for opening

the facility en route to ultimately hiring up to 1,200 workers to run the new manufacturing plant.

www.dow.com

Honeywell makes announcements   for  solar  module  efficiency  and  Protection

Honeywell introduced two new product lines at this year’s European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference (PVSEC), the first being a new series of dielectrics and dopants for crystalline silicon solar panels. These materials can accelerate the manufacturing process, slow product degradation, and boost efficiency.

Dopants are formulated chemicals that alter the electrical properties of silicon and can be applied to selectively change the electrical properties of specific parts of solar cells. Dielectrics are formulated chemicals that act as electrical insulators, preventing the flow of electric current through certain areas of the PV cell. The dielectric materials in use in Honeywell’s products have been designed to provide other benefits, such as acting as a passivation layer to prevent harmful recombination effects, a diffusion barrier to prevent unwanted diffusion of dopants into certain regions, and a masking material.

Honeywell dopants will enable broad adoption of n-type Si substrates instead of currently dominant p-type Si, thus eliminating detrimental effects of the light-induced degradation that is an inherent property of p-type Si. These new materials can be applied to Si wafers using inexpensive, high-throughput methods such as screen-printing and ink-jet printing, methods that are well

proven on the industrial scale in PV and other electronic manufacturing.

Honeywell also announced its expanded line of PowerShield backing systems. The new model, called PV270, is 30 percent lighter than traditional backing systems, while providing the same level of protection and insulation as traditional backing materials.

protection and insulation as traditional backing materials. Source: Honeywell Solar The structure of the PV270 has

Source: Honeywell Solar

The structure of the PV270 has been optimized to decrease the number of times manufacturers need to change the rolls of backsheet, allowing for longer periods of manufacturing up- time. Once installed, the backing systems help seal and protect the electrical components of solar panels to prevent shorting and power loss under adverse weather conditions. The backing is comprised of two outer layers, one a fluoropolymer film and the other a proprietary special polyolefin thermoplastic. Sandwiched between the outer films is a polyethylene terephthalate (PET) layer. This inner layer is bonded to the outer layers with a proprietary adhesive system.

www.honeywell.com

sustainable energy and tenksolar   Offer  integrated  PV  system  for   Large-scale rooftop applications

Sustainable Energy Technologies of Calgary, Canada and tenKsolar, based in Minnesota, have partnered to deliver

tenKsolar’s RAIS Wave PV system, which is designed for commercial, flat- roof applications. The panels and racking systems will be paired with Sustainable Energy’s inverter technology.

The RAIS Wave system is unique because the panels are completely interchangeable with no dependence on other panels in the system. According to tenKsolar, if one particular cell is shaded, only that cell suffers in output and the rest of the system is unaffected, unlike normal systems that are tied together in groups.

The companies expect this ultra- efficient combination of the parallel design of the Sunergy inverter and the tenKpanel will set them apart in the commercial rooftop sector. They have already received 1.2 MW worth of orders, including a 1 MW purchase from the Stuart C. Irby Company, a large electrical distributor.

the Stuart C. Irby Company, a large electrical distributor. Source: tenKsolar www.tenksolar.com

Source: tenKsolar

www.tenksolar.com

www.sustainableenergy.com

solaria  raises  additional  $20   million  in  series  D  Financing 

after signing 5-Year supply Deal

Solaria, which raised $45 million in capital this past May, has just closed another funding round, bringing the total up to $65 million. Solaria’s technology is based on dicing or “singulating” a standard crystalline silicon wafer and mounting these

strips on a substrate with a lensing system that essentially halves the requirement for silicon. The lensing and concentration is integrated into the rolled cover glass, representing

a significant change from an earlier acrylic sub-assembly design.

Three weeks before the funding round, enXco, an EDF Energies Nouvelles Company, and Solaria forged a five-year global supply agreement under which Solaria will supply their solar module to enXco. EnXco made a small equity investment in Solaria, as well. EDF develops, constructs, operates and manages wind and solar projects throughout the U.S.

www.solaria.com | www.enxco.com

s unPower   working  on   s olar  

e

nergy s torage

After winning a $1.8 million grant from the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), SunPower is looking to demonstrate the integration of energy storage

systems with existing PV systems for commercial customers. SunPower

is partnering with Ice Energy, Xtreme

Power and ZBB Energy and working with an unnamed major retailer to demonstrate the benefits of combining PV with energy storage.

The “unnamed major retailer” is, in fact, named in the CPUC release

– it is Target Stores. The program

will be implemented by SunPower in conjunction with PG&E, KEMA, Sandia National Laboratories and Target. The CPUC grant is part of the California Solar Initiative (CSI) RD&D program (‘RD&D’ stands for Research, Development,

Deployment and Demonstration). The CSI aims to create 1,940 megawatts of new, solar-produced electricity by 2016 with a budget of $2.2 billion over 10 years.

www.sunpowercorp.com

www.ice-energy.com

www.xtremepowerinc.com

www.zbbenergy.com

Petra   s olar   w ins   Prestigious   segis  Contract

Sandia National Laboratories has awarded Petra Solar its prestigious Solar Energy Grid Integration Systems (SEGIS) contract as part of the U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Program. Petra has now won a total of $5.8 million worth of federal grants. Through the contract, Petra Solar will extend its development of electric grid stabilization, micro- grid and smart grid technologies, which will enable utilities to manage the massive increase in renewable energy deployment expected as the renewable energy markets grow.

deployment expected as the renewable energy markets grow. Source: Petra Solar The state of New Jersey

Source: Petra Solar

The state of New Jersey plans to install more than 200,000 modules from Petra on existing utility poles and tie them into the grid. These line voltage inverters have advanced smart grid and communication capabilities.

Petra Solar won the SEGIS Stage 3 contract, which is designed to help the winning company push its products toward commercialization.

The contract – worth about $3 million – was awarded in a competitive process that drew a number of prominent industry names. Petra Solar’s research has focused on three issues: enabling utilities to better monitor and control solar electricity as it becomes part of the mix of electricity sources, helping utilities prevent grid instability that can result from the high penetration of solar into the grid, and creating technological tools to allow the electricity system to accept and use solar and other cleantech resources more broadly among its energy sources.

www.petrasolar.com

EuRoPEAn nEwS

s ulfurcell  Unveils   C igs  Cell  

w ith   10.7%  efficiency  

At PVSEC, Sulfurcell Solartechnik unveiled prototypes for its new product line, which consists of 1.25m by 0.65m modules with a considerably increased efficiency of 10.7% and a peak output of 86.8 watts.

After an intensive development phase lasting just four months, in July of this year Sulfurcell succeeded in producing the first prototypes of large-format CIGS solar modules with efficiencies greater than 10%. This represents a milestone for the highly specialized experts in Sulfurcell’s research department, since very few manufacturers of thin-film solar modules are currently capable of producing high quality modules with efficiencies in the double digits.

Scientists have already been able to produce CIGS solar cells with efficiencies greater than 20% under laboratory conditions. In order to exploit this potential, Sulfurcell’s CIGS process deploys co-evaporation techniques. The manner in which these are utilized to manufacture the record- breaking cells depends, however, on proprietary design features and components. A major advantage of this process is that the CIGS layer properties can be precisely configured, which enables the

material’s potential to be exploited

to the fullest extent. The company’s

medium-term technology roadmap

is clearly defined: Sulfurcell is already

aiming to surpass the 11% threshold

in 2011 and the 12% threshold in

2012. Module efficiencies exceeding 14% are realistic by 2015.

www.sulfurcell.com

Oerlikon   Continues   Driving  

a morphous s ilicon

Oerlikon Solar remains committed to amorphous silicon (a-Si) solar technology and, to that end, is promising improved efficiency

trends and improved cost numbers. Oerlikon clearly believes there’s

a future for the oft-pilloried a-Si

photovoltaic technology and the firm

continues to make aggressive cost and performance claims.

At PVSEC, Oerlikon unveiled new

technology that looks to drive down cost and increase efficiency in its thin-film solar production lines. The rechristened “ThinFab” includes a number of changes

to the equipment and process:

»

core

equipments PECVD, TCO and Laser

New

generation

of

the

» Thinner cell structures with reduced degradation and reduced gas consumption

» Stabilized module efficiency of 10 percent (143 Wp per module)

» New low voltage module design, based on simplified new backend equipment

According to Oerlikon’s Chris O’Brien, these advances will put company into a cost leadership position in PV.

O’Brien made the bold promise of 50 Euro cents per watt ($0.64 per watt) product cost and 10% efficiency by the end of this year. Working in tandem with Corning, Oerlikon has achieved 11.9% conversion efficiency, which has been confirmed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL).

www.oerlikon.com

British gas to install solar Panels   on thousands of Homes for Free

British Gas, one of the U.K.’s largest energy providers, will offer thousands of residents the opportunity to install solar panels on their homes. Those who choose to take advantage of the program can either have the system installed free of charge but benefit only from reduced energy prices, or they can finance the up- front costs and also receive a greater payout from the country’s feed-in tariff. For the moment, the program is capped at 1,500 installations.

British Gas will work with mySolar Energy to provide complete installation services, including home assessments, providing customers

with a certificate of expected panel performance (CEPP) to estimate the value the panel will add to the property, and helping those who qualify apply for the FIT.

Should customers choose to buy the panels outright, they will benefit from both the electricity that they produce and the FIT payments. To help entice customers to actually purchase the panels, British Gas is offer a two-year, 0% APR deal.

www.britishgas.co.uk

ime C   Produces   Large- area   Cells  w ith   19%  e fficiency 

At PVSEC, IMEC presented several new large-area silicon solar cells with more than 19% conversion efficiency. The silver-printed contacts were able to achieve 19.1% efficiency and the copper- printed contacts reached 19.4%. These efficiencies proved possible through the use of improved texture and firing conditions. Moreover, the results were achieved on large-area cells measuring 148cm2, proving the industrial viability of the process.

IMEC’s silicon solar cells feature rear-side passivation, laser ablation, and local aluminum back-side field and screen-printed contacts or Cu-plated contacts on advanced emitter schemes.

www.imec.be

aeg Power  s olutions  Unveils  Ultra- e fficient   Poly- s ilicon   Power   s ystem,   a nnounces   Partnership  w ith  gt s olar

At PVSEC, AEG Power Solutions unveiled the company’s new Thryobox

PI power system. AEG claims that this new system will increase the production output of their polysilicon reactors by 10% to 20%, thus increasing overall efficiency.

AEG is also partnering with GT Solar to offer the Thyobox PI system as part of a turnkey solution using GT Solar’s SDR series of CVD reactors. This next-generation power system is designed to be integrated with GT’s SDR-400 to enable reactor capacities over 500 MTA.

www.aegps.com | www.gtsolar.com

ASIAn nEwS

Chinese  wafer  m akers  g CL-Poly   and  Comtec  accrue  Orders  in 

excess of 600mw

GCL-Poly Energy has signed a second long-term wafer supply contract with DelSolar, a solar cell and module provider in Taiwan, further strengthening the long-term strategic alliance between the two companies. GCL-Poly will provide to DelSolar high quality wafers that can meet the needs of about 664MW cells from October 2010 to December 2015.

The agreement includes a mechanism by which the parties may adjust prices to better reflect prevailing market conditions. DelSolar expects the alliance to greatly enhance its overall operational needs and profitability.

GCL-Poly also recently won RMB 5 million worth of funding from the National Electronic Information Industry Fund to explore processes

that will reduce the cost of producing silicon. The company plans to further its closed recycling system to help bring costs down.

Mono-crystalline wafer manufacturer Comtec Solar Systems has signed new wafer supply framework agreements with price subject to negotiation to provide major customers Gintech Energy Corporation, Jetion Solar, CHINT Group Corporation and Neosolar Power Corporation for a total of approximately 200MW in mono- crystalline solar wafers.

Under the terms of the contracts, Comtec will supply each of the GinTech, Jetion, Chint and Neosolar with approximately 50MW of mono- crystalline wafers from January 2011 to December 2011.

www.gcl-poly.com.hk

www.comtecsolar.com

m

asdar  PV  to s upply  t hin-Film  

m

odules   for  i ndian   Villages

Masdar PV, manufacturer of large- area, thin-film solar modules, has signed a contract with IG Solar for the supply of silicon-based thin-film PV modules for a total of 1.5MW. The solar modules from Masdar will be used in new buildings of the Indian construction project developer MAG, who develops villages with the key goal of sustainability.

Over the next 12 months, ten of these villages will be built utilizing the PV modules on the roofs of the individual dwellings. Each village is designed to support 3,000 residents with full carbon-neutrality and efficient water supply and disposal

systems. These self-sufficient villages are being developed to combat the energy-deficient slums that are located on the outskirts of the country’s major cities.

www.masdarpv.com | www.igsolar.in

s un e dison  s igns m OU  to Build  

400 mw  of   s olar  Projects  in  

south  k orea

SunEdison and Gyeongsangnam-do (GSND), a provincial government in southeastern Korea, have announced the execution of a non-binding Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) for the establishment of 400MW of solar power plants in the Korean province.

Subject to negotiation and completion of definitive agreements, it is expected that SunEdison will utilize public land and building rooftops to construct 400MW of solar power plants. GSND would support SunEdison by securing the proper land or building areas and in completing the authorization and permission processes. The projects should be completed by the end of 2013.

www.sunedison.com

http://english.gsnd.net

LDk starts Construction of 1.5gw 

manufacturing Plant in Hefei

Multi-crystalline solar wafer manufacturer LDK Solar has broken ground on a new 1.5GW solar cell and module manufacturing facility in Hefei, China. With construction slated to finish by year-end and

production starting in March, LDK hopes to produce 1GW of crystalline-based solar cells and 500 megawatts of solar modules.

In addition to this plant in Hefei, operation has started at LDK’s Xinyu production line, which has an expected annual output of 5,000 metric tons. All of this additional production capacity comes in the wake of recent deals, such as LDK’s 50MW agreement with Italy’s Enel.

www.ldksolar.com

J a solar  s igns  500 mw supply  

a greements

JA Solar Holdings has announced that it has secured over 500MW of supply agreements for 2011. Deliveries of the company’s mono- crystalline and multi-crystalline solar cells will begin in January and continue through December of next year. In August, JA Solar raised its 2010 sales forecast and said it would increase its manufacturing capacity to 1.8GW by year-end from a previous target of 1.5GW.

www.jasolar.com

SolAR PolIcy

California   Considers   Next-

g eneration   Feed- in  tariff

In late August, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) proposed to launch a new renewable incentive program designed to drive mid-sized renewable energy development. This next-generation

feed-in tariff program will require investor-owned California utilities to purchase electricity from renewable energy systems between 1 and 20MW in size.

The CPUC proposal establishes

a 1GW pilot program for power

from eligible mid-sized renewable energy systems. The program requires California’s three largest investor owned utilities to hold biannual competitive auctions into which renewable developers can bid. Utilities must award contracts starting with the lowest cost-viable project and moving up in price until

the MW requirement is reached for that round. The program will use standard terms and conditions to lower transactional costs and provide the contractual transparency needed for effective financing. Development security and relatively short project development timelines ensure project viability. The Commission can act to finalize and adopt the program in as soon as thirty days.

ConTinued froM PAGe 1

seia/gtm  research  Quarterly  survey  results;  Pennsylvania makes  a   Big Leap in the Us PV market

the standard, they must purchase Pennsylvania’s version of SRECs, Alternative Energy Credits (AECs). Currently, the solar requirements

are fairly minimal (0.012% in 2010

& 0.0203% in 2011), and PPL was

exempt from participating until this year. PECO’s exemption ends next year.

Unlike New Jersey, Pennsylvania has yet to define a specific SACP,

which is the punitive fine that energy suppliers must pay if they do not meet the state’s AEPS. This has created a significant level of price uncertainty in the AEC market. As

of right now, the fine is double the

average price of the AECs trading in the previous energy year. The SACP is $550 for 2010. There is a bill being circulated in the Pennsylvania House

of Representatives that would set the 2011 SACP at $450 with a 3%

annual decrease, but would raise the solar requirement to six times what

is currently mandated (0.5% vs. 3%

by 2024). Though the bill currently under review in the House has the

potential to alter the market, it is still

a long way from passing.

Even with the current solar requirements set relatively low, Pennsylvania’s AEPS is already driving substantial market growth.

Installation and pricing data and forecasts are available for Pennsylvania and the other top-20 state markets in the latest SEIA/GTM Research Quarterly U.S. Solar Market Report available at www.gtmresearch.com.

cAlEndAR

s eptember

2

ND iN ter N ati ON a L 

P

HO t OVOLtai C sOL ar  

eN erg Y

Beijing, China September 27 - 29

www.ipvsee.com

October

sOL ar   P O wer   2010

Los Angeles, California, USA October 12 - 14 2010

www.solarelectricpower.org

sOL ar  iNDU strY 

C ONF ere NC e   (C is - es )

Madrid, Spain October 21 - 22

www.solarpraxis.de

5t H iN ter N ati ON a L 

e

x H i B iti ON eN erg Y-

P

HO t OVOLtai C  ‘10

Athens, Greece October 21 - 24

www.leaderexpo.gr

PV  taiwa N  2010

Taipei, Taiwan October 26 - 28

www.pvtaiwan.com

PV dATA

uTIlITy-ScAlE PRojEcT PIPElInE/ lARGE-ScAlE PRojEcT AnnouncEMEnT TRAckER

U.S. UTILITY PV PIPELINE!

10,000! 9,000! 8,000! 7,000! 9,341! 6,000! 5,000! 4,000! 3,000! 2,000! 4,439! 1,000! 172! 0! OPERATING
10,000!
9,000!
8,000!
7,000!
9,341!
6,000!
5,000!
4,000!
3,000!
2,000!
4,439!
1,000!
172!
0!
OPERATING !
CONTRACTED (PPA
ANNOUNCED (PRE-
SIGNED)!
CONTRACT)!
CAPACITY (MW-DC)!

CONTRACTED US UTILITY PV PIPELINE BY EXPECTED COMPLETION DATE!

1,800! 1,600! 1,400! 1,200! 1,000! 800! 600! 400! 200! 0! 2010! 2011! 2012! 2013! 2014!
1,800!
1,600!
1,400!
1,200!
1,000!
800!
600!
400!
200!
0!
2010!
2011!
2012!
2013!
2014!
MWDC!
           

esT.

   

DaTe

counTry

sTaTe/

region

Developer

size

projecTeD

sTarT DaTe

compleTeTion

DaTe

esT. cosT

noTes

3-Sep

Italy

Lombardy

Martifer Solar

3MW

       

9-Sep

Italy

Puglia

Schneider Electric

43MW

       

31-Aug

Slovakia

Slovakia

Phoenix Solar

2.2MW

 

Dec-10

   

27-Aug

United

 

Ecotricity

1MW

       

Kingdom

25-Aug

USA

CO

Premier Power

3MW

   

$18.3

 

million

26-Aug

USA

NV

Nevada Solar Works

1.3MW

Oct-10

     

30-Aug

USA

CO

SunPower

2MW

 

late-2011

 

US Government Contract

30-Aug

USA

IN

SunPower

1.8MW

 

Jan-11

 

US Government Contract

1-Sep

USA

CO

Main Street Power

2.8MW

Sep-10

     

2-Sep

USA

UT

NexGen Energy/Bella

2.6MW

       

Energy

8-Sep

USA

HI

Sunetric

600kW

Oct-10

 

$2.5 million

 

10-Sep

USA

NC

ESA Renewables

1MW

 

Nov-10

   

14-Sep

USA

AZ

SunEdison

14.5MW

2011

   

Ground-based system at US Air Force Base

Starting this month, PV News will begin to track the announcements of large scale projects and maintain a database with the most up-to-date information regarding utility scale PV installations that are operating or in the planning or construction phases.

PV news feed-in TAriff TrACker

EuRoPEAn fEEd-In TARIff TRAckER

22

 

sysTem

       

2011

 

counTry

Type

kWp/locaTion

2009

 

2010

Digression

 

2011

       

Jan 1- Jun 1

Jul 1 - Oct 1

Oct 1 - Dec 31

   
   

<30

€ 0.32

€ 0.28

€ 0.24 - 0.25

€ 0.24

9%*

€ 0.21 - 0.23

 

Ground Mount

30-100

€ 0.32

€ 0.28

€ 0.24 - 0.25

€ 0.24

9%*

€ 0.21 - 0.23

 

Germany

100-1000

€ 0.32

€ 0.28

€ 0.24 - 0.25

€ 0.24

9%*

€ 0.21 - 0.23

 
 

>1000

€ 0.32

€ 0.28

€ 0.24 - 0.25

€ 0.24

9%*

€ 0.21 - 0.23

 
   

<30

€ 0.43

€ 0.39

€ 0.34

€ 0.33

9%*

 

€ 0.30

 

Rooftop

 

30-100

€ 0.41

€ 0.37

€ 0.32

€ 0.31

9%*

 

€ 0.29

100-1000

€ 0.40

€ 0.35

€ 0.31

€ 0.30

9%*

 

€ 0.27

 

>1000

€ 0.33

€ 0.29

€ 0.26

€ 0.25

9%*

 

€ 0.23

Spain

Ground Mount

 

€ 0.28

€ 0.32

   

45.0%

 

€ 0.176

 

Rooftop

   

<20

€ 0.34

€ 0.34

   

5.0%

€ 0.323

   
   

>20

€ 0.31

€ 0.31

   

25.0%

€ 0.233

   
   

Jan - Apr

May

-

Sept

-

Aug

Dec

Ground Based;

1

to 3

€ 0.39

 

€ 0.38

12.3%*

€ 0.362

€ 0.347

€ 0.333

Classified

as

3

to 20

€ 0.37

 

€ 0.37

 

17.8%*

€ 0.339

€ 0.322

€ 0.304

‘Other Systems’

             

for 2011

> 20 (20 - 200 for 2011)

€ 0.35

 

€ 0.34

16.2%*

€ 0.321

€ 0.309

€ 0.285

200

to 1000

   

21.8%*

€ 0.314

€ 0.303

€ 0.266

1000

to 5000

   

22.4%*

€ 0.313

€ 0.289

€ 0.264

>5000

   

26.2%*

€ 0.297

€ 0.275

€ 0.251

 

1

to 3

€ 0.39

€ 0.38

   

0%*

€ 0.402

€ 0.391

€ 0.380

3

to 20

€ 0.37

€ 0.36

   

5%*

€ 0.377

€ 0.360

€ 0.342

Italy

 

Rooftop

 

> 20 (20 - 200 for 2011)

€ 0.35

€ 0.34

   

5%*

€ 0.358

€ 0.341

€ 0.323

200

to 1000

       

7.7%*

€ 0.355

€ 0.335

€ 0.314

   

1000

to 5000

       

11.2%*

€ 0.351

€ 0.327

€ 0.302

>5000

       

15.6%*

€ 0.333

€ 0.311

€ 0.287

 

1

to 3

€ 0.48

€ 0.47

   

6.4%

1kW to 20kW

€ 0.44

 

1 to 3 (partially integrated)

€ 0.43

             
           

20kW to

   
 

BIPV

3

to 20

€ 0.45

€ 0.44

9.1%

200kW

€ 0.40

 

3 to 20 (partially integrated)

€ 0.41

             
 

>20

€ 0.43

€ 0.42

   

11.9%

> 200kW

€ 0.37

 

>20 (partially integrated)

€ 0.39

             
       

Pre 9/1

Post 9/1

         
 

Roof-integrated

 

Residential <3

 

€ 0.58

€ 0.58

 

TBD

     

Residential >3

 

€ 0.58

€ 0.51

 

TBD

     

Schools and hospitals

 

€ 0.58

€ 0.51

 

TBD

     

France

   

Other

€ 0.60

€ 0.50

€ 0.44

 

TBD

     

Non-integrated

   

€ 0.42

€ 0.37

 

TBD

     
 

roof

 

Ground

 

Northern France

 

€ 0.38

€ 0.33

 

TBD

     

Mount

Southern France

 

€ 0.31

€ 0.27

 

TBD

     

Overseas

€ 0.42

€ 0.40

€ 0.35

 

TBD

     

Kingdom GreeceUnited

The PV News team is excited to introduce our European and North American Feed-In Tariff Trackers. These two summary tables provide up-to-date information regarding government and utility performance-based incentives that promote the use of solar technology.

 

sysTem

     

2011

 

counTry

Type

kWp/locaTion

2009

 

2010

Digression

 

2011

 

Mainland

<100

€ 0.45

€ 0.45

€ 0.44

6.8%

€ 0.41

 

Greece

>100

€ 0.40

€ 0.40

€ 0.39

7.7%

€ 0.36

 

Island

<100

€ 0.50

€ 0.44

€ 0.42

7.1%

€ 0.39

 
 

>100

€ 0.45

€ 0.49

€ 0.47

8.5%

€ 0.43

 

United Kingdom

BAPV

<4

   

€ 0.46

0.0%

€ 0.46

 
 

<4

   

€ 0.40

0.0%

€ 0.40

 

BIPV

4 to 10

   

€ 0.40

0.0%

€ 0.40

 

10-100

   

€ 0.35

0.0%

€ 0.35

 
 

100-5000

   

€ 0.32

0.0%

€ 0.32

 
 

Standalone

     

€ 0.32

0.0%

€ 0.32

 

Czech

Republic

 

<30

   

€ 0.48

     

All

>30

   

€ 0.48

     

counTry

    € 0.48       counTry Republic Czech 2012   noTes mosT recenT

Republic

Czech

2012

 

noTes

mosT recenT alTeraTion

 

20

year term, FiT digression ~9%-13%.

*Additional 1% digression

7/1/2010 - eliminated for cropland field installations; 10/1/2010 - futher 3% reduction on all rates

for every 1GW installed over 3.5GW in 2010

 

7/1/2010 - 13% for rooftop installtions; 10/1/2010 - futher 3% reduction on all rates

 

25

year term; adjusted quarterly. Annual hard caps on FIT: 502 MW

8/2/10 - FiTs decrease 45% for new, large ground-based plants, 25% for rooftop systems >20kW, and 5% for rooftop systems <20kW

in 2010 and 488 MW in 2011. Cap changes are perfectly negatively correlated tomovements in FIT.

 

20

year term; further annual degression of 6% is intended for all

9/8/10 - Under new legislation, feed-in tariffs for open-space systems with a capacity up to 5MW are to be cut by 9.3% on average during the first four months of 2011, while incentives for solar projects with a capacity of 5MW and more will be decreased by 14.2%. The cuts for rooftop solar systems are expected to be between 4.75% and 13.28%, depending on the size of the system. All tariffs are then to be decreased every four months during 2011.

non-integrated solar projects for the years 2012 and 2013. BIPV systems are to be subject to a degression rate of only 2%. 3GW cap

for non-integrated systems and a 200MW cap for BIPV rate calcuated through end of 2011

*Digression

   

20 year term linked in inflation

9/1/2010 - 12% reduction for some rates

2012

 

noTes

mosT recenT alTeraTion

 

20

year term indexed at 25% of inflation; new FiTs reduced at 1%

 

per month

€ 0.46

   

€ 0.40

€ 0.40

25

year term; FiTs set through 2012 then subject to readjustment

€ 0.35

 

€ 0.32

€ 0.32

   

9/15/10 - Legislation passed that eliminates FiTs for ground-based systems, pending approval from Czech Parliament. If approved, changes become effective March 1st, 2011.

 

20

year term linked in inflation (within range of 2%-4%)

noRTh AMERIcAn fEEd-In TARIff TRAckER

24

sTaTe/

   

sysTem

   

conTracT

program

 

provinces

uTiliTy/region

resiTrcTions

2010

2011

DuraTion

Type

program size cap

     

$/kWh

       
 

IOUs & POUs with 75,000+ customers

 

<3 MW

$0.08-$0.19

 

10, 15, or 20 years

Feed-in Tariff

 

478 MW

California

IOUs

 

1-20MW

 

TBD

 

TBD

Reverse Auction

 

1GW

Sacramento Municipal Utilities District (SMUD)

         

100 MW (program full as of

   

<5 MW

$0.18-$0.30

$0.15-$0.25

Expires 2016

Feed-in Tariff

 

8/2010)

     

<25 kW

$0.32

 

20

years

 

4 MW/year (program cap reached through 2016)

Florida

Gainsville Regional Utilities (GRU)

 

>25 kW

   

Feed-in Tariff

(freedstanding only)

$0.26

 
 

Orlando Utilities Comission

<600 kW PV

$0.05

5 years with automatic renewal

Performance-

 

< 1200 kW Solar Water Heating

$0.03

Based Incentive

 

None

 

Hawaii Electric Light Co.

 

<2.72 MW

$0.33

       

Hawaii

Maui Electric Co.

 

<2.72 MW

$0.28-$0.35

20

 

Performance-

 

None

Hawaiian Electric Co.

 

<5 MW

$0.25

years

Based Incentive

 

Kuaui Island Utility Cooperative

 

<5 MW

$0.34

   
 

PG&E

 

<10 kW

$0.60-$0.65

       
 

10

kW - 100 kW

$0.55

Pacific Power

 

<10 kW

$0.60

Expires 3/31/2015 or when program cap is reached

Performance-

25

MW (program full)

Oregon

 

10

kW - 100 kW

$0.55

Based Incentive

Pacific Power & Idaho Power

 

<10 kW

$0.55

   
   

10

kW - 100 kW

$0.55

Eugene Water and Electric Board

10 kW - 1 MW

$0.071-

$0.071-

10

years

Performance-

 

None

$0.11

$0.11

Based Incentive

 
   

<20 kW Commercial/ Mult-family Installation

$0.14

   

Performance-

 

Texas

Austin Energy

$0.175

10

years

Based Incentive

$100,000 in 2010

       

Performance-

 
 

CPS Energy (San Antonio)

25

kW-500 kW

$0.27

20

years

Based Incentive

5 MW per year for two years

           

Performance-

 

Vermont

All

 

<2.2 kW

$0.30

20

years

Based Incentive

50

MW (program full)

   

Modules/inverter manufactured out of state

     

Performance-

 

$0.15

Expires 6/30/2020

Based Incentive

$5000 per installation per year

Washington

Inverter manfuactured

       

Most Utilities

 

in-state

$0.18

 

Modules

       
 

manufactured in-state

$0.36

Modules/inverter

       

manufactured in-state

$0.54

           

Performance-

 

Wisconsin

Madison Gas & Electric

1 kW - 10 kW

$0.25

10

years

Based Incentive

 

1 MW

   

<10 kW Rooftop

$CAD/kWh

       

$0.80

10-250 kW Rooftop

$0.71

Ontario

Ontario Power Authority

250-500 kW Rooftop

$0.64

20

years

Feed-in Tariff

 

None

>500 kW Rooftop

$0.54

   

<10 kW Ground Mounted

$0.64

10 kW-10 MW Ground

$0.44

CaliforniaFloridaHawaii

OregonTexas

noRTh AMERIcAn fEEd-In TARIff TRAckER

sTaTe/

provinces

noRTh AMERIcAn fEEd-In TARIff TRAckER sTaTe/ provinces Vermont Washington Wisconsin Ontario   program
noRTh AMERIcAn fEEd-In TARIff TRAckER sTaTe/ provinces Vermont Washington Wisconsin Ontario   program

Vermont

Washington

Wisconsin

Ontario

 

program

proposeD/

 

noTe

sTarT DaTe

enancTeD

mosT recenT alTeraTion

Avoided cost; alternative to California Solar Initiative

2/14/08

Enacted

1/1/2010 (public utilities with 75,000+ customers must offer FiT)

California’s three largest IOUs wil hold biannual auctions for developers; contracts are awareded to the lowest cost viable projects and move up until MW cap is reached

TBD

Proposed

8/26/2010 - California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) has propsed an incentive to drive midsize solar developments

Performance-based Incentive

1/19/10

Enacted

8/4/2010 (program has reached its cap)

Based on Cost of Generation

3/1/09

Enacted

 

“RECs deducted from monthly bills

 

Enacted

Program has reached its cap

 

9/25/09

Enacted

 
 

7/1/10

Enacted

 

Fixed-price Incentive

1/25/08

Enacted

Program reached its cap within minutes of going live.

60% of equipment manufactured in AE’s service area

2/1/10

Enacted

 

System must be 90% roof mounted

6/15/10

Enacted

Based on Cost of Alternative Generation

9/30/09

Enacted

6/4/10 - 65% system efficiency required for eligibility

 

8/31/06

Enacted

3/2010 (increased eligibility for LLCs, cooperatives and mutural corporations)

Fixed-price Incentive

3/6/07

Enacted

 

Starting 1/1/2011, developers will be required to have at least 60% of their building resources come from Ontario- sourced goods and labor

Mar-06

Enacted

7/2/10 - microFiT was separated to ground mount and rooftop systems <10kW 8/13/2010 - exclusion of commercial aggregators

reseArCh

2010 Glo BA l P v dEMA nd An A ly SIS A nd f o RE c AST

Between 2000 and 2009, global PV demand grew at an average annual rate of 51 percent, rising from 170 MW to 7,059 MW. Despite this impressive rate of growth, the past two years have witnessed a fundamental and difficult market shift for manufacturers. Previously, burgeoning European feed-in tariff markets enabled global demand to exceed available supply, driving up feedstock prices and attracting new entrants across the value chain. But the combination of an ensuing rapid capacity build-out and the financial crisis of 2008 and early 2009 shifted market power downstream into the hands of project developers and financiers. Today, global manufacturing capacity greatly exceeds global demand. With an estimated total of 16.1 GW of module manufacturing capacity online by the end of 2010, the global PV market is no longer constrained by supply. early 2009 shifted market power downstream into the hands of project developers and financiers. Today, global manufacturing capacity greatly exceeds global demand. With an estimated total of 16.1 GW of module manufacturing capacity online by the end of 2010, the global PV market is no longer constrained by supply.

the global PV market is no longer constrained by supply. In addition, 2010 will mark the

In addition, 2010 will mark the beginning of a global PV market diffusion. Over the past few years, PV demand has been characterized by a series of gold rushes in which the majority of production flows into a single uncapped feed-in tariff market.

P U r CH ase  tOD aY  »  

http://www.gtmresearch.com/report/2010-global-pv-demand-analysis-and-forecast

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