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1980 1981 1982 1983 1984

Net Sales 9740 10044 11948 13970 15260


COGS 5836 5648 6994 8304 9298
Gross Profit 3904 4396 4954 5666 5962
SG&A 2216 2072 2470 3022 3274
Other Income(net) 40 108 70 128 120
EBIT 1728 2432 2554 2772 2808
Tax 816 972 920 942 842
Net Profit 912 1460 1634 1830 1966

Gross Margin 40% 44% 41% 41% 39%


Net Margin 9% 15% 14% 13% 13%
现金流预测
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989
Net Sales 16024 16844 17686 18570 19498
EBIT 3433 3640 3757 3608 3788
EBIT margin 21.42% 21.61% 21.24% 19.43% 19.43%
Interest Expense 1675 1538 1369 908 800
Additional Interest Expense 315 315 315 315 315
EBT 1758 2102 2388 2700 2988
Tax 274 364 440 556 660
Net Profit 1232 1486 1696 1892 2076
Add:Noncash Charges 240 260 284 300 310
OCF 1472 1746 1980 2192 2386
Less:WC Increase 156 162 170 180 190
Less:Capex 120 134 142 150 466
Available for debt retirement 1196 1450 1668 1862 1730
FCFF 2875.84 2982.12 3041.72 2833.15 2598.71

本金偿还
Bank Loan 1196 1450 1668 1686 0
Case's loan 0 0 0 176 5816.667
VC's loan 0 0 0 0 0

新借款
New loan from bank 4086.667
1990 1991 假设
20472 21495.6 VC借款(可调)
3976 4299.12 税率
19.42% 20.00% 永续增长率(可调)
800 1263.6666667 WACC(可调)
445.19999997 0
3176 3035.453333
714 607.09066667
2105.84 2428.362667
340 360.4
2445.84 2788.762667
200 210
600 600
1645.84 1978.762667
2611.105239 2989.696

1645.84 1978.7626667
0 0
0 0
资本成本
1985 1986 1987
9500 银行贷款 4804 3354 1686
20% 占比 0.255478 0.19327 0.107484
3.0% 成本 12% 12% 12%
16.50% Case先生贷款 4000 4000 4000
占比 0.21272 0.23049 0.255
债务
成本 13.62% 13.62% 13.62%
VC资金 9500 9500 9500
占比 0.505212 0.547424 0.605636
成本 25% 25% 25%
债权加权平均成本 19% 20% 21%
管理层权益金额 500 500 500
权益 占比 0.02659 0.02881 0.03188
权益必要报酬率 22% 22% 22%
WACC 0.154598 0.159494 0.166246
估值
1988 1989 1990 1984 1985
0 4086.667 2440.827 FCFF 2875.841
0 0.290109 0.196195 PV of FCFF 2468.533
12% 10% 10%
4000 0 0
0.28571 0 0
13.62% 13.62% 13.62%
9500 9500 9500
0.678571 0.674397 0.763615 企业价值(百万$) 18.3513 18.50341
25% 25% 25%
22% 20% 22%
500 500 500
0.03571 0.03549 0.04019
22% 22% 22%
0.174706 0.165897 0.17726
估值
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
2982.119 3041.715 2833.153 2598.715 2611.105
2197.218 1923.715 1538.035 1210.958 9012.826
2559.759 2241.128 1791.811 1410.766 10499.94
2610.914 2087.46 1643.542 12232.43
2431.891 1914.727 14250.78
2230.657 16602.16
19341.5
18.57435 18.5974 18.83282 19.34152 19.92177
标普500 标普500工业 D公司 W公司 O公司 Case公司
P/E
1982 14.4 10.4 10.8 11.9 13.8
1983 19.6 11.8 6.4 5 10.2
1984 14.6 9.9 8.7 7.2 10.5
EPS
1980 2.26 1.97 1.68 4.56
1984 2.48 1.62 2.98 9.83
净利率
1980 7.80% 5.30% 8% 9.40%
1984 6.40% 4.10% 8.90% 12.90%
ROE
1982 15.40% 8.80% 14.70% 19.20%
1983 14.20% 5.70% 15% 19%
1984 16.60% 6% 16.90% 19.80%

P/E 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 11


企业价值(千$) 167110 176940 186770 196600 206430 216260
11.5
226090
借9500万,13年还清
1985 1986 1987 1988
VC借款(千$) 9500
偿还利息(千$) 855 855 855 855
偿还本金(千$) 0 0 0 0
偿还总额(千$) 855 855 855 855
折现率 25%
684 547.2 437.76 350.208
VC债务现值(千$) 4249.02
VC股权现值(千$) 5250.98
VC股权终值(百万$)

借8000万,11年还清
1985 1986 1987 1988
VC借款(千$) 8000
偿还利息(千$) 855 855 855 855
偿还本金(千$) 0 0 0 0
偿还总额(千$) 855 855 855 855
折现率 25%
684 547.2 437.76 350.208
VC债务现值(千$) 4103.72
VC股权现值(千$) 3896.28
VC股权终值(百万$)

借6000万,10年还清
1985 1986 1987 1988
VC借款(千$) 6000
偿还利息(千$) 855 855 855 855
偿还本金(千$) 0 0 0 0
偿还总额(千$) 855 855 855 855
折现率 25%
684 547.2 437.76 350.208
VC债务现值(千$) 3766.48
VC股权现值(千$) 2233.52
VC股权终值(百万$)

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993


1644 1044.48 780.288 579.9936
1305.6 975.36 724.992
1219.2 906.24
按6000万借款在不同年份价值 4477.367 3541.709 2795.136
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

855 855 748.125 641.25 534.375 427.5 320.625 213.75


0 1187.5 1187.5 1187.5 1187.5 1187.5 1187.5 1187.5
855 2042.5 1935.625 1828.75 1721.875 1615 1508.125 1401.25

280.166 535.429 405.93 306.813 231.106 173.409 129.547 96.2932

16.0 20.0 25.0 31.3

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

855 855 600 480 360 240 120


0 1333.333 1333.333 1333.333 1333.333 1333.333 1333.333
855 2188.333 1933.333 1813.333 1693.333 1573.333 1453.333

280.166 573.658 405.449 304.227 227.275 168.935 124.84

11.9 14.9 18.6 23.2

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

855 855 432 324 216 108


0 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200
855 2055 1632 1524 1416 1308

280.166 538.706 342.255 255.685 190.052 140.445

6.8 8.5 10.7 13.3

1994
428.6054
535.7568
669.696
1997

106.875
1187.5
1294.375

71.159
不同年份IPO的管理层回报分析
1989 1990 1991
企业价值 19.34152 19.92177 20.51942
VC债务价值 4.477367 3.541709 2.795136
新银行借款 4.086667 2.440827 0.462064
股权价值 10.77749 13.93923 17.26222
净利润 2.076 2.10584 2.428363

P/B 1.7 1.7 1.7


P/E 10 10 10
IPO价值(P/B) 18.32173 23.69669 29.34577
IPO价值(P/E) 20.76 21.0584 24.28363
VC股权价值 6.816168 8.52021 10.65026
管理层股权价值(P/B) 11.50556 15.17648 18.69551
管理层年化收益率(P/B) 74.13% 69.07% 62.86%
管理层股权价值(P/E) 13.94383 12.53819 13.63336
管理层年化收益率(P/E) 83.64% 62.00% 53.70%
假设向VC借款6000万
1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989
销售收入 100 140 196 274.4 307.328
EBT(6%) 6 8.4 11.76 16.464 18.43968
折旧(直线法) 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
税后净利 5.3 7.22 9.908 13.6712 15.25174
资本支出 -20
其他一次性费用 -90 -90
经营现金流 -110 -84.7 7.22 9.908 13.6712 15.25174
现值(WACC) -110 -72.70386 5.319678 6.266257 7.421692 7.107058
NPV -137
IRR -11%

假设项目持续8年
1990 1991 1992
344.2074 385.5122 431.7737
20.65244 23.13073 25.90642
2.5 2.5 2.5
17.02195 19.00459 21.22514

17.02195 19.00459 21.22514


6.808538 6.524947 6.255228

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