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本金偿还
Bank Loan 1196 1450 1668 1686 0
Case's loan 0 0 0 176 5816.667
VC's loan 0 0 0 0 0
新借款
New loan from bank 4086.667
1990 1991 假设
20472 21495.6 VC借款(可调)
3976 4299.12 税率
19.42% 20.00% 永续增长率(可调)
800 1263.6666667 WACC(可调)
445.19999997 0
3176 3035.453333
714 607.09066667
2105.84 2428.362667
340 360.4
2445.84 2788.762667
200 210
600 600
1645.84 1978.762667
2611.105239 2989.696
1645.84 1978.7626667
0 0
0 0
资本成本
1985 1986 1987
9500 银行贷款 4804 3354 1686
20% 占比 0.255478 0.19327 0.107484
3.0% 成本 12% 12% 12%
16.50% Case先生贷款 4000 4000 4000
占比 0.21272 0.23049 0.255
债务
成本 13.62% 13.62% 13.62%
VC资金 9500 9500 9500
占比 0.505212 0.547424 0.605636
成本 25% 25% 25%
债权加权平均成本 19% 20% 21%
管理层权益金额 500 500 500
权益 占比 0.02659 0.02881 0.03188
权益必要报酬率 22% 22% 22%
WACC 0.154598 0.159494 0.166246
估值
1988 1989 1990 1984 1985
0 4086.667 2440.827 FCFF 2875.841
0 0.290109 0.196195 PV of FCFF 2468.533
12% 10% 10%
4000 0 0
0.28571 0 0
13.62% 13.62% 13.62%
9500 9500 9500
0.678571 0.674397 0.763615 企业价值(百万$) 18.3513 18.50341
25% 25% 25%
22% 20% 22%
500 500 500
0.03571 0.03549 0.04019
22% 22% 22%
0.174706 0.165897 0.17726
估值
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
2982.119 3041.715 2833.153 2598.715 2611.105
2197.218 1923.715 1538.035 1210.958 9012.826
2559.759 2241.128 1791.811 1410.766 10499.94
2610.914 2087.46 1643.542 12232.43
2431.891 1914.727 14250.78
2230.657 16602.16
19341.5
18.57435 18.5974 18.83282 19.34152 19.92177
标普500 标普500工业 D公司 W公司 O公司 Case公司
P/E
1982 14.4 10.4 10.8 11.9 13.8
1983 19.6 11.8 6.4 5 10.2
1984 14.6 9.9 8.7 7.2 10.5
EPS
1980 2.26 1.97 1.68 4.56
1984 2.48 1.62 2.98 9.83
净利率
1980 7.80% 5.30% 8% 9.40%
1984 6.40% 4.10% 8.90% 12.90%
ROE
1982 15.40% 8.80% 14.70% 19.20%
1983 14.20% 5.70% 15% 19%
1984 16.60% 6% 16.90% 19.80%
借8000万,11年还清
1985 1986 1987 1988
VC借款(千$) 8000
偿还利息(千$) 855 855 855 855
偿还本金(千$) 0 0 0 0
偿还总额(千$) 855 855 855 855
折现率 25%
684 547.2 437.76 350.208
VC债务现值(千$) 4103.72
VC股权现值(千$) 3896.28
VC股权终值(百万$)
借6000万,10年还清
1985 1986 1987 1988
VC借款(千$) 6000
偿还利息(千$) 855 855 855 855
偿还本金(千$) 0 0 0 0
偿还总额(千$) 855 855 855 855
折现率 25%
684 547.2 437.76 350.208
VC债务现值(千$) 3766.48
VC股权现值(千$) 2233.52
VC股权终值(百万$)
1994
428.6054
535.7568
669.696
1997
106.875
1187.5
1294.375
71.159
不同年份IPO的管理层回报分析
1989 1990 1991
企业价值 19.34152 19.92177 20.51942
VC债务价值 4.477367 3.541709 2.795136
新银行借款 4.086667 2.440827 0.462064
股权价值 10.77749 13.93923 17.26222
净利润 2.076 2.10584 2.428363
假设项目持续8年
1990 1991 1992
344.2074 385.5122 431.7737
20.65244 23.13073 25.90642
2.5 2.5 2.5
17.02195 19.00459 21.22514