ENERGY SLIDESHOW

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Updated: May 2, 2019

 ENERGY PRICES

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas www.dallasfed.org/research/energy

Brent &WTI
WTI&Crude
BrentOil
Crude Oil
Dollars per barrel Brent (Apr 26 = $73.49) WTI (Apr 26 = $65.28)
140

120
95% confidence
bands for WTI
100

80

60

40

20

0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
NOTES: Latest prices are averages for the week ending 4/26/19.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Dashed lines are forward curves. WTI is West Texas Intermediate.
SOURCES: Bloomberg; Energy Information Administration.
Henry
HenryHub
HubNatural Gas Natural Gas
& Marcellus
Dollars per million Henry Hub (Apr 26 = $2.56) Marcellus (Apr 26 = $2.35)
British thermal units
7

6
95% confidence bands
for Henry Hub
5

0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
NOTES: Latest prices are averages for the week ending 4/26/19.
Dashed line is a forward curve. Marcellus price is an average of
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Dominion South, Transco Leidy Line, and Tennessee Zone 4 prices.
SOURCES: Bloomberg; Wall Street Journal.
 Regular
Retail Gasoline
Gasoline & Highway Diesel
& Diesel
Retail price per gallon
PADD Gasoline Diesel
1 $2.78 $3.19
1A $2.82 $3.24
1B $2.93 $3.39
1C $2.68 $3.06
2 $2.77 $3.06
3 $2.58 $2.94
4 $2.84 $3.18
5 $3.67 $3.73
U.S. $2.89 $3.17

NOTES: Prices are for 04/29/19. PADDs are “Petroleum Administration

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas for Defense Districts.” Prices include all taxes.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
 GLOBAL PETROLEUM

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas www.dallasfed.org/research/energy

 World
World Oil Supply
Oil Supply & Demand
& Demand
Million barrels per day
106
Q1
104 2019
100.6
102

100 World
100.1
production
98

96
World
consumption
94

92
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
NOTE: Dashed lines represent forecasts.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Implied
World OilChange
Supplyin&World
DemandOil Stocks
Million barrels per day
2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
NOTE: Shaded bars represent forecasts.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
OPECOPEC Crude Oil Production
Oil Production & Rig Count
Million barrels per day
33.0

32.0

Apr
31.0 30.42

30.0

29.0

28.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
NOTES: OPEC is the Organization of the Petroleum
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Exporting Countries. Dashed line represents a forecast.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
 OECDCommercial
OECD CommercialInventories
Oil Inventories
Million barrels
3,200

3,100

3,000
Apr
2852
2,900

2,800

2,700
2010-2014 average

2,600

2,500
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
NOTES: OECD is the Organization for Economic Cooperation
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Development. Dashed line represents a forecast.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
 World
OECD Oil Production
Commercial Outages
Inventories
Million barrels per day
3.0 Mar
OPEC 2.49

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0
Non-OPEC
0.32
0.5

0.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas NOTE: OPEC is the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
 NATIONAL OUTLOOK

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas www.dallasfed.org/research/energy

 U.S.
U.S. Oil Oil & Gas Production
Production & Rig Count
U.S. crude oil production U.S. natural gas production
Million barrels per day Billion cubic feet per day
13 120
12 110
11 100
10 90
9 80
8
70
7
60
6
50
5
4 40
3 30
2 20
1 10
0 0
1921 1929 1937 1945 1953 1961 1969 1977 1985 1993 2001 2009 2017

NOTE: Natural gas series is marketed production.

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
 U.S.
U.S. OilOil Production
Production && Rig
Rig Count
Count
U.S. crude oil production U.S. oil rig count
Million barrels per day Number of active rigs
17 1,700

15 1,500
Feb
13 11.8 1,300

11 1,100

9 900

7 Apr 700
805
5 500

3 300
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
NOTES: Dashed line shows the forecast as of 4/09/19. Rig count
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas series shows the last weekly count each month.
SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Energy Information Administration.
 U.S. Oil
Gasoline & Gas Employment
Demand
Number of jobs (thousands)
420

380

340 Feb
282.9
300

260 Support activities

for oil and gas operations Oil and gas
220
extraction
Mar
180 152.6

140

100
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted.

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
 Commercial
Crude Crude Oil
Oil & Product Inventories
Inventories
Million barrels 2013-2017 range 2013-2017 average 2019 2018
600

550

Apr
500 Mar
Feb 471
453 450
450

400

350

300
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
NOTES: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 4/26/19.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
 Natural
Gasoline Gas Inventories
Demand
Trillion cubic feet 2013-2017 range 2013-2017 average 2019 2018
4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5
Apr
1.0 1.5
Feb
Mar
0.5 1.4
1.1
0.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
NOTES: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 4/26/19.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
 Gasoline
Gasoline DemandInventories
Million barrels 2013-2017 range 2013-2017 average 2019 2018
270

260 Jan
251
250 Mar
237
240
Apr
227
230

220

210

200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
NOTES: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 4/26/19.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
 Distillate
Gasoline DemandInventories
Million barrels 2013-2017 range 2013-2017 average 2019 2018
180

170

160

150 Feb
136 Mar Apr
140 128 126

130

120

110

100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
NOTES: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 4/26/19.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
 Vehicle
Gasoline Miles Traveled
Demand
Billion miles traveled
275

270

265
Feb
260 266

255

250

245

240
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
NOTES: Series is seasonally adjusted. Data are estimates based on hourly
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas traffic count data at approximately 5,000 locations nationwide.
SOURCE: Federal Highway Administration.
 Gasoline
Gasoline DemandConsumption
Million barrels per day 2013-2017 range 2013-2017 average 2019 2018
10.0
9.8
Apr
9.6 Mar
9.47
9.17
9.4
9.2 Feb
8.96
9.0
8.8
8.6
8.4
8.2
8.0
7.8
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
NOTES: Square marks based on weekly data as of 4/26/19.
Gasoline consumption is estimated using product supplied.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
 REGIONAL ACTIVITY

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas www.dallasfed.org/research/energy

TexasTexas Oil & Gas Production
Oil Production & Rig Count
Texas crude oil production Texas natural gas production
Million barrels per day Billion cubic feet per day
5.5 40
5.0
35
4.5
4.0 30
3.5
25
3.0
2.5 20
2.0
15
1.5
1.0 10
1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
NOTE: Natural gas series is marketed production.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
 Texas
Texas OilOil Production
Production &&RigRig Count
Count
Texas crude oil production Texas rig count
Million barrels per day Number of active rigs
9.5 950

8.5 850

7.5 750

6.5 650
Apr
5.5 491 550

4.5 450
Feb
3.5 4.89 350

2.5 250

1.5 150
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas NOTE: Rig count series shows the last weekly count each month.
SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Energy Information Administration.
 Texas
Texas Oil &
Mining Gas Employment
Sector Employment
Number of jobs (thousands)
210

190
Mar
170 161.0
Support activities
150 for mining

130
Oil and gas
110 extraction

90
76.7
70

50
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
 Drilled
Texas but Sector
Mining Uncompleted Wells
Employment
Number of wells
6,000
U.S. basins excluding Permian Basin Mar
5,000 4479

4,000 Mar
4021

3,000

2,000
Permian Basin
1,000

0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCES: Energy Information Administration.

12-Month Total Rig Change by County

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas *Change in total rigs, from 4/27/2018 to 4/26/2019.
SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
3-Month Total Rig Change by County

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas *Change in total rigs, from 2/22/2018 to 4/26/2019.
SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
 Crude Oil Production by State

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas NOTE: Data shown are monthly, for February 2019.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Natural Gas Production by State

NOTES: Data shown are monthly, for February 2019.

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Series depicted is marketed natural gas production.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
 Crude Oil Production by Region
Million barrels per day
4.5
Permian
4.0 Basin
3.5
3.0
2.5
Eagle Ford
2.0 Bakken
1.5
1.0 Niobrara
Anadarko
0.5 Other areas
0.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
NOTES: Series depict estimates after January 2019.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas “Other areas” include Haynesville and Marcellus.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Natural Gas Production by Region
Billion cubic feet per day
35
Appalachia
30

25

20

15 Permian Basin
Haynesville
10 Other areas
Anadarko
5 Eagle Ford

0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
NOTES: Series depict estimates after January 2019.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas “Other areas” include Niobrara and Bakken.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
 Energy Survey Business Activity
In the current quarter vs. the prior quarter: has your firm’s level of business
activity increased, not changed or decreased?
Diffusion index
100
80
60 40.1 41.8 37.3 38.1 40.7 44.5 43.3
40 26.7 27.3
20 13.8 10.8
2.3
0
-20 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
-40 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019
-42.1
-60
-80
-100
NOTES: Index is the percentage of firms reporting an increase in activity
since the prior quarter minus the percentage reporting a decrease.
Positive values reflect expansion in oil and gas activity, negative values
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reflect contraction and zero reflects no change since last quarter.
SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
 Breakeven Prices for New Wells
Dallas Fed Energy Survey—In the top two areas in which your firm is active: What
WTI oil price does your firm need to profitably drill a new well?
Dollars per barrel
90 Permian SCOOP/
(Other) STACK Other U.S.
80
Permian Permian Other U.S. (Non-shale)
70 (Midland) Bakken
(Delaware) (Shale)
60 $53 $54
$48 $49 $49 $51
50 $49
40
30
20
10
0
15 13 4 18 7 7 34
Number of responses
NOTES: Line shows the mean, and bars show the range of responses.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 82 E&P firms answered this question from March 13-21, 2019.
SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
 Shut-in Prices for Existing Wells
Dallas Fed Energy Survey—In the top two areas in which your firm is active: What
WTI oil price does your firm need to cover operating expenses for existing wells?
Dollars per barrel
80 Other U.S.
70 Permian Bakken (Non-shale)
SCOOP/ (Other)
60 STACK Permian
Permian Other U.S.
(Delaware)
50 (Midland) (Shale)
40 $35 $36 $37
$33
$27 $28 $28
30
20
10
0
15 6 13 7 18 4 35
Number of responses
NOTES: Line shows the mean, and bars show the range of responses.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 87 E&P firms answered this question from March 13-21, 2019.
SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
 Additional Resources
• Energy Indicators

– A monthly web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the energy sector

• Dallas Fed Energy Survey

– A quarterly assessment of energy activity of about 200 oil and gas firms located in the Eleventh District

• Energy in the 11th District

– Detailed info on four major regions: the Barnett Shale, Eagle Ford Shale, Haynesville Shale and Permian Basin

• Other energy articles and research

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Click here to contact us for general information or other inquiries.