$x2$ 1 2

$x3$ 1 2 1 2 Total
1 1844 2725 4189 6359 15117
$x1$ 2 1860 2769 4170 6295 15094
3 2398 3622 5564 8205 19789
Total 6102 9116 13923 20859 50000

banyak polis yg klaim 17102

x2
1 2
x3 x3
x1 1 2 1 2
1 0.4715 0.9047 0.27 0.499
2 0.0481 0.1375 0.0339 0.0925
3 0.7272 1.4671 0.4471 0.8259

x2
1 2
x3 x3
x1 1 2 1 2
1
2
3
 Poisson Binomial Negatif
Koefisien Estimasi Std. Error Estimasi Std. Error
Deductible = 100
(Intercept) $-0.0773$ 0.04151 . $-0.0773$ 0.04152 .
$x_1$
2 $-1.44014$ 0.06926 *** $-1.44014$ 0.06926 ***
3 0.6399 0.03612 *** 0.6399 0.03613 ***
$x_2$
2 $-0.6733$ 0.03193 *** $-0.6733$ 0.03193 ***
$x_3$
3 0.25728 0.03363 *** 0.25728 0.03363 ***
AIC 10215 10217
Deductible = 200
(Intercept) $-0.45112$ 0.04717 *** $-0.45106$ 0.04765 ***
$x_1$
2 $-1.5332$ 0.0793 *** $-1.53312$ 0.07955 ***
3 0.65724 0.0394 *** 0.65739 0.03984 ***
$x_2$
2 $-0.60904$ 0.03487 *** $-0.60911$ 0.03538 ***
$x_3$
3 0.4885 0.03808 *** 0.48833 0.03851 ***
AIC 9466.8 9467.7
Deductible = 300
(Intercept) $-0.64164$ 0.03618 *** $-0.64156$ 0.03637 ***
$x_1$
2 $-1.76987$ 0.06413 *** $-1.76995$ 0.06422 ***
3 0.54391 0.0297 *** 0.54371 0.02988 ***
$x_2$
2 $-0.5794$ 0.02674 *** $-0.57903$ 0.02694 ***
$x_3$
3 0.57738 0.02966 *** 0.5771 0.02983 ***
AIC 17569 17570
Deductible = 400
(Intercept) $-1.01473$ 0.03466 *** $-1.01474$ 0.03496 ***
$x_1$
2 $-1.97294$ 0.06311 *** $-1.97329$ 0.06325 ***
3 0.46291 0.0268 *** 0.46238 0.0271 ***
$x_2$
2 $-0.52155$ 0.02484 *** $-0.52064$ 0.02519 ***
$x_3$
3 0.81221 0.02938 *** 0.81189 0.02963 ***
AIC 22717 22716
Deductible = 500
(Intercept) $-1.36011$ 0.03995 *** $-1.35969$ 0.04017 ***
$x_1$
2 $-2.16089$ 0.07518 *** $-2.16141$ 0.07528 ***
3 0.42709 0.0294 *** 0.42616 0.02963 ***
$x_2$
2 $-0.47893$ 0.02763 *** $-0.47801$ 0.0279 ***
$x_3$
3 1.00023 0.03406 *** 0.99963 0.03423 ***
AIC 19948 19949
 0.036
0.054
Deductible Taksiran oleh GLM Nilai Teoritis Kuadrat Error 0.084
100 1.7552 1.7114 0.0019 0.126
200 1.2289 1.2301 0.0000 0.036
300 0.9069 0.8120 0.0090 0.054
400 0.5759 0.5095 0.0044 0.084
500 0.3934 0.3092 0.0071 0.126
Rata-rata Kuadrat Error 0.0045 0.048
0.072
0.112
0.168
1
 Rata-rata Kuadrat Error
$x_1$ $x_2$ $x_3$
Sederhana Box-Tidwell GLM (Invers)
1 1 1 0.00119 0.00004 0.00278 0.00010 0.00518 0.00019
1 1 2 0.00027 0.00001 0.00046 0.00002 0.00106 0.00006
1 2 1 0.00082 0.00007 0.00125 0.00010 0.00179 0.00015
1 2 2 0.00040 0.00005 0.00041 0.00005 0.00037 0.00005
2 1 1 0.00099 0.00004 0.00048 0.00002 0.00063 0.00002
2 1 2 0.00045 0.00002 0.00055 0.00003 0.00108 0.00006
2 2 1 0.00010 0.00001 0.00004 0.00000 0.00011 0.00001
2 2 2 0.00023 0.00003 0.00025 0.00003 0.00039 0.00005
3 1 1 0.01198 0.00057 0.00449 0.00022 0.01309 0.00063
3 1 2 0.00051 0.00004 0.00081 0.00006 0.00721 0.00052
3 2 1 0.00044 0.00005 0.00023 0.00003 0.00267 0.00030
3 2 2 0.00005 0.00001 0.00006 0.00001 0.00068 0.00011

0.01743 0.01182 0.03426

0.00094 0.00067 0.00214
GLM (Log)
0.00264 9.487588E-05
0.00061 3.271147E-05
0.00128 0.00010755
0.00037 4.698807E-05
0.00044 1.578438E-05
0.00065 0.000035211
0.00004 3.254867E-06
0.00030 3.761652E-05
0.00404 0.00019371
0.00268 0.000192662
0.00044 4.931266E-05
0.00022 3.750234E-05

0.01370
0.00085
 Dengan Kovariat Frekuensi Tanpa Kovariat Frekuensi
Koefisien Estimasi Std. Error Sig. Estimasi Std. Error Sig.
Deductible = 100
(Intercept) 5.837781 0.043572 *** 5.84961 0.03431 ***
$u_12$ -0.727436 0.057888 *** -0.73126 0.05712 ***
$u_13$ -0.331338 0.03077 *** -0.32816 0.02979 ***
$u_22$ 0.169184 0.028233 *** 0.16506 0.02634 ***
$u_32$ 0.641287 0.028036 *** 0.64245 0.02774 ***
frekuensi 0.005563 0.012798
AIC 54813 54811.17
Deductible = 200
(Intercept) 5.687556 0.049649 *** 5.68109 0.04169 ***
$u_12$ -0.798362 0.071451 *** -0.79626 0.07096 ***
$u_13$ -0.313242 0.036308 *** -0.31532 0.03525 ***
$u_22$ 0.239311 0.033041 *** 0.24189 0.03119 ***
$u_32$ 0.688044 0.034652 *** 0.68648 0.03408 ***
frekuensi -0.003514 0.01465
AIC 46392.99 46391.07
Deductible = 300
(Intercept) 5.680442 0.037141 *** 5.66482 0.03216 ***
$u_12$ -0.877431 0.057364 *** -0.87272 0.05732 ***
$u_13$ -0.373294 0.027185 *** -0.37817 0.02653 ***
$u_22$ 0.192501 0.024874 *** 0.1985 0.02389 ***
$u_32$ 0.698404 0.027053 *** 0.69347 0.02652 ***
frekuensi -0.009863 0.011957
AIC 78288 78286.98
Deductible = 400
(Intercept) 5.556212 0.037099 *** 5.56454 0.03178 ***
$u_12$ -0.850778 0.058444 *** -0.8536 0.058 ***
$u_13$ -0.355392 0.024951 *** -0.35346 0.0246 ***
$u_22$ 0.232951 0.023512 *** 0.23037 0.02282 ***
$u_32$ 0.712961 0.027703 *** 0.7159 0.02702 ***
frekuensi 0.005793 0.012854
AIC 92389.23 92387.48
Deductible = 500
(Intercept) 5.55668 0.04126 *** 5.53463 0.03646 ***
$u_12$ -0.78839 0.06964 *** -0.78056 0.0696 ***
$u_13$ -0.31537 0.02743 *** -0.31989 0.02723 ***
$u_22$ 0.21228 0.02591 *** 0.21754 0.02558 ***
$u_32$ 0.67737 0.03226 *** 0.66998 0.03165 ***
frekuensi -0.01673 0.01504
AIC 74820 74820.06
Deductible Taksiran oleh GLM Nilai Teoritis Kuadrat Error
100 249.9977 240 99.9540
200 213.9557 214.2857 0.1089
300 197.6799 200 5.3829
400 183.2921 190.9091 58.0187
500 183.9654 184.6154 0.4225
Rata-rata Kuadrat Error 32.7774
 [,1] [,2] [,3] [,4] [,5] [,6] [,7]
[1,] 1 1 1 59.96508 11.3587 44.63583 52.4615
[2,] 1 1 2 137.9261 54.54699 90.11044 113.343
[3,] 1 2 1 43.52023 6.598488 22.41862 32.42445
[4,] 1 2 2 128.2136 205.2888 74.9042 99.45597
[5,] 2 1 1 42.14042 25.83119 50.80023 47.31885
[6,] 2 1 2 75.9448 40.65234 78.76078 78.24048
[7,] 2 2 1 33.5499 14.55127 35.19562 34.97085
[8,] 2 2 2 53.44677 14.98139 43.53759 48.76408
[9,] 3 1 1 35.05158 11.67434 31.15747 33.45739
[10,] 3 1 2 55.22753 11.18186 36.63488 45.69287
[11,] 3 2 1 24.49973 1.608841 14.39479 19.3089
[12,] 3 2 2 39.35669 13.56323 15.69836 26.3631
728.8425 411.8375 538.2488 631.8015
 Rata-rata Kuadrat Error
$x_1$ $x_2$ $x_3$
Sederhana Box-Tidwell GLM (Invers) GLM (Log)
1 1 1 59.8316 10.9561 44.5888 52.3705
1 1 2 137.7898 54.4965 90.0776 113.2622
1 2 1 43.3498 6.5962 22.3245 32.2915
1 2 2 128.0624 204.9693 74.8378 99.3497
2 1 1 42.0962 24.6050 50.8146 47.3033
2 1 2 75.8382 38.7081 78.7564 78.1849
2 2 1 33.4724 14.0718 35.1790 34.9225
2 2 2 53.3030 14.5009 43.4896 48.6674
3 1 1 34.9410 11.3101 31.1167 33.3803
3 1 2 55.0689 11.0022 36.5739 45.5832
3 2 1 24.3470 1.6024 14.3063 19.1869
3 2 2 39.1719 13.5113 15.5958 26.2195
Total 727.2722 406.3298 537.6608 630.7218