7: Sampling Distribution Confidence Intervals for the  The sample size is increased

Population Proportion, π (n↑)

 Sampling error is the difference between  The distribution of the sample proportion is  The confidence level is
an estimate and the corresponding approximately normal if the sample size is decreased, (1 – ) ↓
population parameter. large, with standard deviation
Sampling error  X    We will estimate this with sample data σ σ Z 2 σ2
X Z e  zα/2 n
 Bias is the difference between the  Upper and lower confidence limits for the n n e2
expected value of the estimator and the population proportion are calculated with
corresponding parameter. Example: the formula: Z2 π (1  π )
n
Bias  E (X )   p(1 p) p(1 p)  (1   ) e2
 Standard Error of the Mean p  Z/2 σp 
n n n
σ
σX   where
n
 Zα/2 is the standard normal value
 If a population is normal with mean μ and for the level of confidence desired
standard deviation σ, the sampling  p is the sample proportion
distribution of is also normally distributed  n is the sample size
with: μ μ σ  Note: must have X = np > 5 and n – X =
X σX  n(1-p) > 5
n
Confidence Interval for a Population
8: Confidence Intervals Variance 2
 Assumptions:  If the population is normal, then the sample
Population variance σ2 is known variance s2 follows the chi-square distribution
Population is normally distributed (c2) with degrees of freedom d.f. = n–
If population is not normal, use large 1.
sample.
 σ σ
x  z α/2  μ  x  z α/2
n n
Sampling Error
Confidence Interval for μ
(σ Unknown)  The required sample size can be found to
 Assumptions: reach a desired margin of error (e) with a
Population standard deviation is unknown specified level of confidence (1 - )
Population is normally distributed  The margin of error is also called sampling
If population is not normal, use large error
sample S S  The margin of error can be reduced if
x  t n -1,α/2  μ  x  t n -1,α/2
n n  the population standard
deviation can be reduced (σ↓)
9: One-sample Hypothesis Tests
 P-Values:
 Decision Rule: If the test statistic falls
in the rejection region, reject H0;
otherwise do not reject H0
P > 0.10 No evidence against the null
hypothesis.
0.05 < P < 0.10 Weak evidence
against the null hypothesis
0.01 < P < 0.05 Moderate evidence
against the null hypothesis

Errors in Hypothesis Test Decision Making

P < 0.01 Strong evidence against the

null hypothesis

t Test of Hypothesis for the Mean

(σ Unknown)
Confidence Level
 The confidence coefficient (1-α) is the
probability of not rejecting H0 when it is
true.
 The confidence level of a hypothesis test
is (1-α)*100%.
 The power of a statistical test (1-β) is the
probability of rejecting H0 when it is
false.
Hypothesis Tests for Proportions 10: Two-sample Hypothesis Tests
 Goal: Test hypothesis or form a
confidence interval for the difference
between two population means, μ1 –
μ2
 The point estimate for the difference is:

Hypothesis tests for μ1 – μ2

Type II Error
Hypothesis tests for µ1 - µ2 with σ1
and σ2 unknown and assumed equal

Hypothesis tests for µ1 - µ2 with σ1

and σ2 known and assumed equal
 Assumptions:
+ Samples are randomly and
independently drawn
+ Populations are normally
distributed or both sample
sizes are at least 30
+ Population variances are
unknown but assumed equal
 Related Populations Two Population Proportions
The Paired Difference Test

Hypothesis tests for µ1 - µ2 with σ1

and σ2 unknown, not assumed equal
Assumptions:
 Population variances are
unknown and cannot be
assumed to be equal
Testing for the Ratio of Two
Population Variances
 Sample sizes within each treatment do
 The total number of observations:
11: Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)
 Each possible value of a factor or
combination of factors is a treatment.
The F Distribution  Test if each factor has a significant
effect on Y:
H0: m1 = m2 = m3 =…= mc
H1: Not all the means are equal
 If we cannot reject H0, we conclude that
observations within each treatment have
the same mean m.
ANOVA Assumptions
 Observations on Y are
independent
 Populations being sampled are
normal
 Populations being sampled have
equal variances
One-factor ANOVA
 A one-factor ANOVA compares the
means of c treatments (groups)
not need to be equal.
n = n1 + n2 + … + nc
One-factor ANOVA as
a Linear Model
 yij comes from a population with a
common mean (m) plus a treatment
effect (Aj) plus random error (eij):
yij = m + Aj + eij (j = 1, 2, …, c and i =
1, 2, …, n)
 Random error is assumed to be
normally distributed with zero mean
and the same variance.
 Testing hypotheses:
H0: A1 = A2 = … = Ac = 0
H1: Not all Aj are zero
 If H0 is true, then the ANOVA model is:
yij = m + eij
 The same mean in all groups, or no
factor effect.
Decomposition of Variation
 Group and Grand Means
 The mean of each group (group mean)
 The overall sample mean (grand mean)
F  The F statistic is the ratio of the
Partition of Deviations
 For a given observation yij, the following
relationship holds:
 Do after rejection of equal means in
Partioned Sum of Squares
Hypothesis Testing
 SSA and SSE are used to test the
 For c groups, there are c(c – 1)/2 distinct
hypothesis of equal means by dividing
each sum of squares by it degrees of
freedom.
 These ratios are called Mean Squares
(MSA and MSE).
F Statistics
variance due to treatments (MSA) to
the variance due to error (MSE).
 When F is near zero, there is little
difference among treatments and we
would not reject H0
Decision Rule: Reject H0 if F > Fα,
otherwise do not reject H0
The Tukey’s Test
ANOVA
 Tells which population means are
significantly different
e.g.: μ1 = μ2 ¹ μ3
 Tukey’s studentized range test is a
multiple comparison test
pairs of means to be compared.
 Tukey’s is a two-tailed test for equality
of paired means from c groups
compared simultaneously.
 The hypotheses are:
 Decision Rule:
 Where Tc,n−c is a critical value of the
Tukey test statistic Tcalc for the desired
level of significance.
 5% critical values of Tukey test
statistics
ANOVA Assumption
 ANOVA assumes that observations on
the response variable are from
normally distributed populations that
have the same variance.
 The one-factor ANOVA test is only
slightly affected by inequality of
variance when group sizes are equal.
 One can test this assumption of
homogeneous variances by using
Hartley’s Fmax Test.
 Hartley’s Test Two-factor ANOVA SST = SSA + SSB + SSE
 Hypothesis Without Replication  SST = Total sum of squared deviations
 Two factor A and B may affect Y about the mean
 factor A has r levels, factor B has c  SSA = Between rows sum of squares
levels (effects of factor A)
 all levels of both factors occur, and each  SSB = Between columns sum of
 The test statistic is the ratio of the
cell contains one observation squares (effects of factor B)
largest sample variance to the smallest
sample variance  SSE = Error sum of squares
The decision rule: Linear Model of Two-factor
Reject H if ANOVA with Replication
0

H >H
calc critical

 Hcritical can be found in Hartley’s

test statistics, using: df1 = c, df2 =
n/c -1

Levente’s Test
 Levene’s test is a more robust
alternative to Hartley’s F test.
SST = SSA + SSB + SSI + SSE
 Levene’s test does not assume a
SST = Total sum of squared deviations about
normal distribution. the mean
 It is based on the distances of the SSA = Between rows sum of squares (effects of
observations from their sample factor A)
medians rather than their sample SSB = Between columns sum of squares
means. (effects of factor B)
Total Sum Squares can now be SSI = Interaction sum of squares (effects of AB)
split into three parts: SSE = Error sum of squares
12: Simple Linear Regression
 Regression analysis is used to:
 Predict the value of a dependent
variable based on the value of
independent variable(s)
 Explain the impact of changes in an
independent variable on the dependent
variable
Linear Regression Model
yi  β 0  β1x i  ε i
Where 0 and 1 are the population
model coefficients and  is a random error
term.
Least Squares Estimators
 b0 and b1 are obtained by finding the
values of b0 and b1 that minimize the
sum of the squared differences between
y and ŷ
min SSE  min  ei2
 min  (yi ŷ i ) 2
Coefficient of Determination, R2
 min  [yi  (b 0  b1x i )]
2
 The coefficient of determination is the
portion of the total variation in the
Differential calculus is used to obtain the
coefficient estimators b0 and b1 that
dependent variable that is explained by
variation in the independent variable
minimize SSE  The coefficient of determination is also
called R-squared and is denoted as R2
SSR SSE
R2   1
SST SST
0  R2 1

Measures of Variation

Simple Linear Regression Equation

 uses two estimated parameters, b0 and Comparing Standard Errors of the Slope
b1, instead of one
 is called the standard Inference about the Slope:
se  s e2
error of t Test
the estimatethe estimate.
 se is a measure of the variation of
observed y values from the regression
line

F-Test for Significance

Correlation and R2 Inferences About the

2
 The coefficient of determination, R , for Regression Model
a simple regression is equal to the  The variance of the regression slope
simple correlation squared coefficient (b1) is estimated by
 2
R  rxy
2
s 2b1 
s e2

s e2
 (x i  x)2 (n  1)s2x
Estimation of Model
Error Variance
 An estimator for the variance of the
population model error is
n

e 2
i
SSE
σ̂ 2  s e2  i 1

n2 n2
 Division by n – 2 instead of n – 1 is
because the simple regression model