[Simple] Econometric Simulation System, for Excel

Excel Add-In

SEE.
[Simple E.E. V2015]
for Excel 2000-2015

A Working Manual (Subject to Change Every Year)

Kaoru Yamaguchi
Aug 2015

Distributed by ASIAM Research Institute

Copyright Kaoru Yamaguchi

No part of this documentation may be duplicated in whole or in

part or distributed in any form without written permission.

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 TABLE OF CONTENTS

PART 1: What is SEE. ? ................................................................................................. 5

1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 6
2 Installation and Uninstallation ................................................................................ 7
2.1 Installation........................................................................................................ 7
2.2 Uninstallation ................................................................................................... 8
3 Basic concepts of SEE............................................................................................. 9
3.1 Basic components of SEE. application file and SEE. main processes ............. 9
3.2 SEE. main flows ............................................................................................... 9
PART 2: Basic Operation ............................................................................................. 11
4 Create SEE. application worksheets ..................................................................... 12
5 Data Input.............................................................................................................. 13
5.1 Data Sheet ...................................................................................................... 13
5.2 Example of Data Sheet................................................................................... 14
6 Model Input ........................................................................................................... 15
6.1 Model Sheet ................................................................................................... 15
6.2 Model Specification ....................................................................................... 16
6.3 Option Type .................................................................................................... 18
6.4 Special Variables: Lagged Variables and Dummy Variables ......................... 19
6.5 Non-Linear Estimation................................................................................... 20
6.6 Example of Model Sheet ................................................................................ 21
6.7 Useful tips ...................................................................................................... 22
7 Model Check ......................................................................................................... 25
7.1 Model Check .................................................................................................. 25
7.2 Example ......................................................................................................... 25
7.3 Display Model structure ................................................................................. 26
8 Solve (Model Analysis) ......................................................................................... 27
8.1 Regression Models ......................................................................................... 27
8.2 Defined equations .......................................................................................... 28
8.3 Copying a value directly without the equation .............................................. 28
8.4 View Graph and Information ......................................................................... 28
9 Simulation ............................................................................................................. 30
9.1 Start Simulation.............................................................................................. 30
9.2 Simulation Sheet ............................................................................................ 30
9.3 Summary of Simulation ................................................................................. 32
9.4 Model Fitness: Error of Model Estimate from Actual Data ........................... 33
PART 3: Functions of SEE. .......................................................................................... 37
10 SEE. toolbar buttons............................................................................................ 38
10.1 : Main Menu ............................................................................................ 38
10.2 : Synchronize (Synchronize the variables of a row for all windows) ..... 38
10.3 : Graph (Create graph(s) of the variable(s) for the selected row(s)) ....... 38
10.4 : Single Flow (Reset and Re-calculate the equation(s) of the variable(s)
of the selected row(s)) .......................................................................................... 41
10.5 : Information ........................................................................................... 41
11 Main Menu .......................................................................................................... 43
11.1 Main ............................................................................................................. 44
11.2 Graph ............................................................................................................ 46

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 11.3 Correlation.................................................................................................... 48
11.4 Sensitivity..................................................................................................... 49
11.5 Preferences ................................................................................................... 53
11.6 Utility ........................................................................................................... 59
11.7 Solver ........................................................................................................... 63
PART 4: Advanced Operation ...................................................................................... 66
12 Advanced Operation............................................................................................ 67
12.1 Integration of multiple case studies ............................................................. 67
12.2 Additional Data Sheets ................................................................................. 68
12.3 Change Font Color ....................................................................................... 68
12.4 Change Sheet Name ..................................................................................... 68
12.5 Montecarlo Simulation................................................................................. 69
12.6 Stand Alone Menu and Functions ................................................................ 70
13 Key terms and abbreviation in SEE. ................................................................... 76
Index ............................................................................................................................ 79

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PART 1: What is SEE. ?

5
1 Introduction

SEE. (Simple Econometric Simulation System, Expanded or Simple E. Expanded) is

an integrated simulation system expanded from econometric simulation tool. It
assists simulation modeling to concentrate on data preparation and model
specifications. The processes of estimation using regression models and forecasting
simulation are automated for seamless operation. The increasing popularity of data
manipulation in spreadsheets with the emergence of powerful PCs and sophisticated
spreadsheet software like Microsoft Excel has resulted in the increasing pressure to
make analysis within the spreadsheet itself. SEE. was designed in response to this
need; this software is designed to be fully compatible with spreadsheet applications.

SEE. is an Add-In application for Microsoft Excel 2000-2007. It exploits all the
advantages of the native spreadsheet functions as well as the open interfaces with
other Windows applications. Simultaneously, it integrates the processes of data input,
modeling, testing, and forecasting/simulation. It requires no programming. The
graphical and visual operations make SEE. easy to use and learn. The users can
concentrate on the most demanding tasks of modeling and simulations with the
advantages of full transparency and compatibility with other data and program
interfaces within Windows.

SEE. integrates and controls native functions in Excel to provide such various
estimation options as ordinary least square (OLS), auto-regression, and non-linear.
Groups (systems) of equations can be simultaneous including forward-looking models
and can include various forms of regression models and defined equations. Each
time-series variable or its model is assigned to one row of worksheets. Each time
period or each case of variables is assigned to one column of worksheets. Therefore,
the number of equations or models can extend up to 65,534 for Excel 2000-2003 or up
to 1,048,574 for Excel 2007 depending on the limit of the number of spreadsheet rows.
The number of cases or observations for each variable can extend up to 245 for Excel
2000-2003 or 16,373 for Excel 2007 depending on the limit of the number of
spreadsheet columns.

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2 Installation and Uninstallation

SEE. program is comprised of one Excel Add-In file named Simple_E.xla.

Add-In is a program to expand the function of software like Excel. The extension of
the file name of normal Excel file is “.xls” and that of Add-In file is “.xla”. Add-In
file has not to be open by double click, but to be installed from Excel Add-In menu.

Normal Excel Excel Add-In

Fig. 2.1 Icons of Normal Excel (.xls) and Excel Add-In (.xla)

2.1 Installation

1) Activate from a temporary folder: Click the icon of “Simple_E.xla”. The program
will be loaded and is ready to be used.

2) Activate from a designated folder: Copy “Simple_E.xla” to your favorite hard disk
directory. It is recommended to copy it either in the directory of “Library” under
“Program Files” or in the directory of “AddIns” under the “Documents and
Setting.”

Fig. 2.2 Recommended directory for Simple E2 program file.

3) Open “Add-In” menu from “Tools” menu in MS-Excel. (Figs. 2.2 and 2.3)
4) If “Simple_E.xla” is in recommended directory, you can find Simple_E. in the
“Add-In” Menu. Otherwise, open “Browse” to find and select Simple_E.

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5) Check the box next to Simple_E. in the “Add-In” menu and click “OK.” (Fig. 2.4)1

Fig. 2.3 “Tools” menu of Excel

Fig. 2.4 “Add-In” menu of Excel

. The program SEE. will be loaded and the five buttons of the SEE. toolbar will be
displayed at the upper-left corner of the screen as follows:

Fig. 2.5 SEE. Toolbar

2.2 Uninstallation
1) To uninstall, uncheck the checkbox for Simple_E. in the “Add-In” menu and click
“OK.” The program will be uninstalled and the toolbar will disappear.
2) To remove the program, delete or remove the program from the directory in which
it was installed and delete Simple_E. from the “Add-In” menu.

1
Some function like non-linear regression uses Excel Add-In “Solver,” which also can be checked
here. “Solver” will not be necessary for normal use in SimpleE2.

8
3 Basic concepts of SEE.

3.1 Basic components of SEE. application file and SEE. main processes
SEE. application file is an Excel workbook file that includes three sheets, the “Data
Sheet,” the “Model Sheet,” and the “Simulation Sheet.” SimpleE.Ex cannot function
without these sheets.

There are three processes from data input to simulation: 1) Model Check, 2) Model
Solve, and 3) Simulation. These are the main flows automated by SimpleE.Ex. The
following diagram shows the basic concepts and the relationship of these processes
with the three sheets.

Conceptual Diagram of Simple E. Worksheets

Model Model S imple E. Worksheets

Model Input
Data Input

Check Solve
Sheets for Work (Not Visible)

4. Model.Estimates: Estimated values of regression models

5. Model.Residuals: Regression residuals (differences between actual and

1. Data 2. Model the model estimates)
Model Output

6. Model.Coef f icients: Calculated regression coefficients

Simulation
7. Simulation.Actuals
: Historical actual part of Simulation results

8. Simulation.G rowths: Growth rates

External
Variables
3. S imulation
9. Simulation.Finals: Final test simulation
Simulation Output

10. Simulation.Errors: Final test errors

11. Simple.E.Reserved: Worksheet for misceraneous information

Fig. 3.1 Conceptual Diagram of SEE.

As shown in the above diagram, the users have to enter the data in the data sheet and
the model specifications in the model sheet. The remaining tasks from model
checking to simulation are performed by SEE.

3.2 SEE. main flows

The program-manageable processes are integrated into the above three main flows.
The flows can be launched using the command buttons in main menu: Check, Solve,
and Simulate. The combined buttons are Check & Solve, Solve & Simulate, and All
Through.

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1) Check (Model Check)
The data and models have to be consistent. “Model Check” flow automates the
following processes.

i. Checking the adjustment of code names in each “Model.”

ii. Checking and setting a sample range for each “Model.”
iii. Distinguishing internal and external variables form each “Model.”

2) Solve (Model Solve)

The values of each internal variable for the sample range will be searched and
calculated. The results will be stored in the simulation sheet. For a regression
model, the model equation will be solved and determined with statistics.

These statistics will be presented in the column “Model Summary” of the model
sheet. Moreover, for a regression model, results will be estimated by the model.

3) Simulation
This flow constitutes the simulation sheet. This solves each model under the given
future assumptions of external variables. The definitions (deterministic
equations) can be included. For regression models, the coefficients of
independent variables in solved in the model sheet will be used for simulation.2

These three flows can be launched independently or in combinations of two or all.

2
A “dependent variable” is alternatively referred to as the “explained variable” hereafter, and similarly
an “independent variable” is alternatively referred to as the “explanatory variable.”

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PART 2: Basic Operation

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4 Create SEE. application worksheets

All processes are carried out in specially designed worksheets. These worksheets
can be created using a utility in the program. Before the creation, SEE. has to be
loaded. If SEE. is not loaded, it should be loaded from the “Add-In” menu.

To create a new SEE. worksheet into a new workbook, first, click the “Main Menu”
button of the SEE. toolbar (Fig. 2.1). The following “MAIN MENU” will be
displayed. If “Main” tab is not selected, click on “Main” tab (Fig. 4.1).

Fig. 4.1 Main Menu of SEE.

Next, click the command button “Add to New Workbook” of the Main Menu, or if
you want to create a new SEE. worksheet in the active workbook, click the button
“Add to Active Workbook.” The following message will be displayed.

Fig. 4.2 Create Worksheets

The new SEE. worksheets should have the following three visible sheets: 1) Data, 2)
Model, and 3) Simulation as follows (Fig. 4.3). These names are default. To
rename the files, directly type the new name in the Sheet Names fields before the
creation of these worksheets.3

3
Do not directly change the names of SEE. worksheets. It may cause conflicts. If you want to
change the name of the sheet, refer to “12.4 Change Sheet Name.”
Also, do not directly add the Simple E. worksheets. If you want to add a Simple E. worksheet, refer
to “11.6.1.1 Utility → Add&Delete → SEE. Worksheets.”

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Fig. 4.3 SEE. worksheets

5 Data Input

Data sheet is for data input. Data are the fundamental requirement in SEE. The
values of data, their code names and the time labels in the “TIME” row are the three
basic components to be prepared for analysis. The purpose of each area is described
below.

5.1 Data Sheet

Fig. 5.1 Data sheet is selected

Data sheet consists of five areas.

1) Free Area columns “A to J” (Fig. 5.1 ①)

a. The Free Area columns “A to J” constitute the free area. This area will
be useful to insert such information as data categories, data source
information, unabbreviated names of the variable, unit, and other
comments.

2) TREND Constant cell address “K1” (Fig. 5.1 ②)

a. The “TREND” is the reserved code name of SEE. for the serial numbers
from 1 to 245 for the range next to the cell “K1”( L1,M1,N1,・・・,IV1).
b. It can be used as a code name in “Models.”

3) CODE Area column “K” (Fig. 5.1 ③)

a. The column “K” is for the code name of each variable. The code name
should be unique for each variable and every variable must have a code
name to be used with SEE.

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 b. To form a valid code name, only the characters from “A (a)” to “Z (z),”
from “0” to “9,” and “.,” and “_” can be used.
c. A code name such as “A1” can be confused with the cell address “A1” of
MS-Excel. Therefore, code names that resemble cell addresses should not
be used.
d. Some special keywords such as “C” are reserved for Excel and cannot be
used.
e. The length of each equation (number of characters), which could include
several code names as well as operators and functions, is limited to 1000.
Usually this length is enough in normal operation, however, if this limit
encountered, the code name need to be changed to shorter ones.
4) TIME Label cell address “K2” (Fig. 5.1 ④)
a. “TIME” is the reserved code name for SEE. for the variable that defines
each instance of time period.
b. This label can be composed of either numbers or characters for the range
next to the cell “K2”(L2,M2,N2,・・・,IV2).
c. The scope of the forecast (Simulation) is determined by the range
specified in this “TIME LABEL”. For example, if the actual data is
prepared for the period from 1969 to 1977 and if the TIME is set from
1969 to 1982, SEE. automatically selects the range between 1978 and 1982
for forecast. If another variable is set from 1970 to 1979, for example,
the forecast range for this variable would be between 1980 and 1982 (see
Fig. 5.2).
d. The code name “TIME” is changeable and can be used only if the time
labels are number values.

5) DATA Area columns “L to IV” (Fig. 5.1 ⑤)

a. This area is for the value of each variable. For each variable, data should
be prepared for one and only one set of time interval. For example, if a
variable is available from 1970 to 1979, all cells between 1970 and 1979
must be filled with actual numbers. No missing data or non-numeric
values between 1970 and 1979 are allowed (see Fig. 5.2) unless the option
of “Allow Missing Values”4 is on.
b. Different sets of sample time ranges for different variables are allowed.
For example, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) can have the data from 1970
to 1979, and Primary Energy Supply (PES) can have the data from 1969 to
1977. Then the sample range of a model, which uses both GDP and PES
will be between 1970 and 1977 (see Fig. 5.2).
c. Code names should be unique in a data sheet.

5.2 Example of Data Sheet

The next figure shows a part of the data sheet used for the example. The three rows
shown, are the required data of GDP, PES of Japan, and Deflator (DEF) based on
1990 prices.

The free columns could be used, for example, the description of unit can be provided

4
In case of missing values, refer to “11.5.1 Allow Missing Values”

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in the “unit” column.

Fig. 5.2. Example of Data Sheet

6 Model Input

6.1 Model Sheet

The model sheet is for model formulation. The sheet consists of 1) free area, 2) model
specification area, and 3) model result and analysis area.

1) Free Area columns “A to J”

The free area consists of the first ten columns similar to the data sheet.

2) Specification Area columns “K to AF”

The model specification area consists of a) internal variable, b) option type, c)
independent variables, d) sample range, and e) simulation adjustment area.

a) The internal variable is specified in column “K” using code name (Fig. 6.1 ①).
b) The column “L” is reserved for options of model type (Fig. 6.1 ②).
c) The columns “M to AB” are reserved for independent variables (Fig. 6.1 ③).
d) The following columns “AC to AD” are reserved for the sample range of the
periods of begin and end (Fig. 6.1 ④).
e) The columns “AE to AF” are reserved for simulation adjustments or for the
modification of the estimated equation if it requires modification in the simulation
sheet (Fig. 6.1 ⑤).

3) Result and Analysis Area columns “AG to AN”

The model result area has two parts. One is for a) model summary and model
equation. The other part is for b) model audit.

a) The summary results of regression analysis are presented in the column “AG”
reserved for Model Summary. The estimated or defined model equations will be
presented in column “AH” (Fig. 6.1 ⑥). This is built by “Solve” flow (see 8
Solve).

b) The remaining columns are used for “Model Audit,” to present the model
structure (Fig. 6.1 ⑦). This is built by “Check” flow (see 7 Model Check).

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Fig. 6.1 Model Sheet is selected

6.2 Model Specification

A user can specify two types of equations as a model in SEE.. The first one is a
regression model. The second is an equation of definition or a directly set equation.
Symbolically, the i-th model of each row of model sheet can be either

1. Regression Type (with coefficients 0, 1,,, and error )

Yi =  0+ 1X1+ 2X2+ . . . .+ jXj +  [Xk= fk(V1, V2,,,, Y1, Y2,,) ]
[1 j  16, 1 k  j]
2. Direct Equation Type
Yi = g(V1, V2,,,, Y1, Y2,,)

For both types of models, Y has to be entered into the Column “K.”

For the regression type, each variable or function from X 1 to Xj has to be entered into
the column individually between “M”(X1) and “AB”(X16). The column “Option
Type” can be left Blank in the case of an OLS model. At this stage, the coefficients
0, 1,,, and the error  are not known.

For a case of strong serial correlation, a user can specify “$GS” (Grid Search method)
in the “Option Type” to find the value of , which minimizes the RSS (Residual sum
of square). The optimum  will be searched, and the coefficients will be adjusted.

For a direct equation type, enter the character “=” or “$EQ” in the column “Option
Type” to declare that this is a direct equation and enter the right side part of the
equation g(V1, V2,,,, Y1, Y2,,) in the column “M”(X1).

Any variable used in the model sheet should exist in the data sheet, or it should be
defined in the model sheet using the existing or predefined code names. For
example, the figure given below shows a simple regression model of PES explained
by GDPR. This model assumes that the data of PES and GDP are already prepared
in the data sheet.

If GDPR is not prepared in the data sheet, but nominal GDP and the DEF are prepared,
then the PES can be modeled using the predefined GDPR in the model sheet as
follows:

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Fig. 6.2 Regression Type (PES) and Direct Equation Type (GDPR)

The variables Y1, Y2,,, can be in functional form and include one or more operators
such as: +, -, *, /, (, ), ^, and so on.

The number of independent variables is limited to a maximum of 16 (columns M(X1)

to AB(X16)); however, one independent variable can contain multiple variables like
X+Y+Z. The maximum length of one variable or the maximum number of
characters in one variable is 1000.

Moreover, note that the code name of a functional form cannot be used. Refer to the
footnote about this.

SEE. cannot accept the functional form as a code name (dependent on Excel’s naming
method). If Y is in a functional format and if a user wants to use it elsewhere
(particularly, use an independent variable for another internal variable) as a newly
defined variable, the functional format will be converted to a new variable name to be
used in simulation sheet. The converted variable name will be shown in the “Code”
column (column “AJ”) in the area of model audit. For example, “LN(A/B)” will be
converted to “LN_A_B” as shown below in the italic font.

Fig. Convert Code Name when performing a Model Check (see 7 Model Check)

To use the calculated result of LN(A/B) as a variable, the code name LN_A_B has to
be used for referring at other places.

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6.3 Option Type
a. “=” or “$EQ”—Direct Equation: The variable in “Y” is defined directly by the
formula in “X.” SEE. inserts the values of “Y” in “Simulation.”
b. “$OLS” or Blank cell—OLS: If there are both “Y” and “X” variables
(X1,X2,,,), SEE. executes the regression based on OLS. Simultaneously, it
inserts the values of the “Y” variable in “Simulation.”
c. “$DL”—Double Log: SEE. solves regression equation after log transformation
of the variables on both sides.
- condition: 0<Y and 0<Xs
- transformation from Y=a+bX to LN(Y)=A+LN(X)
- In simulation the result is converted to the original form: Y=EXP(A+LN(X))
d. “$SL”—Semi Log: SEE. solves regression equation after log transformation of
the variable on the “Y” side.
- condition: 0<Y
- transformation from Y=a+bX to LN(Y)=a+bX
- In simulation the result is converted to the original form: Y=EXP(a+bX)
e. “$NC”—No Constant: The coefficient of the constant will be forced to zero.
f. “$LT”—Logistic Transformation: SEE. solves regression after transformation
of Y to Log(Y/(1-Y)).
- condition: 0<Y<1
- transformation from Y=a+bX to LN(Y/(1-Y))=a+bX
-In simulation the result is converted to the original form:
Y = 1/(1+1/EXP(a+bX))
g. “$PT”—Probit Probability Transformation: SEE. solves regression equation
after transforming Y to NORMSINV(Y). For the probability Y, the Excel
function NOMSINV(Y) returns the inverse of the standard normal cumulative
distribution.
- condition: 0<Y<1
- Y=a+bX => NORMSINV(Y)=a+bx
- In simulation the result is converted to the original form:
Y=NORMSDIST(a+bX)
h. “$GS”—Grid Search: SEE. solves the first order autocorrelation model based
on the Grid Search Method.
i. “$IV”—Instrument Variable Method: The option $IV must be followed by
instrument variable(s). (have to be followed by their code names, ex. '$IV XA
XB XC') SEE. solves the regression equation using the two stages least
square method.
- 1st step: estimate Y with instrumental variables XA,XB,.. =>
Y=a+bXA+cXB..
- 2nd step: replace Y with estimated Y.EST and solve with given X1,X2,..=>
Y.EST=a+bX1+cX2...
j. “$CA”—Constant Adjustment: The constant in the equation will be adjusted
such that the value of sample end fits the estimated value. (This is processed
only to the result of Simulation.)

This function is used to lead the estimate be close to the latest actual to smooth
the linkage between historical data and the estimated forecast. This function
cannot be applied to the model defined by “=” or “$EQ”.

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 Internal Option Sample Sample
Simulation
Simulation
Y Type X1 X2
X3
X4
X5
X6
X7
X8
X9
X10
X11
X12
X13
X14
X15
X16 Begin End ReplaceAddName

PES_NOCA GDPR 1965 1997 PES

PES_CA $CA GDPR 1965 1997 PES
GDPR = GDP/DEF 1965 1997

650000

600000 Constant Adjustment

550000

500000

450000

400000
83

85

87

89

91

93

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
k. $CT => Coefficients Constraints for models with Coefficients represented by
C(1), C(2)...(see 6.5 Non-Linear Estimation)
-Example: '$CT c(2)+c(3)=1' for Cob-Douglass function of
Y=c(1)*A^c(2)*B^c(3) [set c(1)*A^c(2)*B^c(3) as X1]
l. “$TG”—Growth Trend: Forecast simulation will be entered in growth trend.
This extrapolation is based on the “Edit→Fill→Series→Type→Growth” of Excel.
“$TL”—Linear Trend: Forecast simulation will be set in linear trend. This
extrapolation is based on the “Edit→Fill→Series→Type→Trend” of Excel.
m. “$SR”—Constrained sample range: Simulation neglects the actual data and fill
the cells with model equations even if they have actual values after the sample
end.
n. “$SF”—Simulation by Formula: Simulation results will be set by formula.
o. “$SV”—Simulation by Value: Simulation results will be set by value.
p. “#URT” => Unit Root Test: Dickey-Fuller (DF) & Augmented Dickey-Fuller
(ADF-1st to 4th order of Lags)
q. “#HET” => Heteroscedasticity Test: Godfrey Koenker, Breusch Pagan and
White

6.4 Special Variables: Lagged Variables and Dummy Variables

For a convenience, SEE. provides with function to create special independent
variables dynamically. They are a) lagged/forward variables, b) dummy variables
and c) cyclic dummy variables. A user is not required to prepare these variables in
the data sheet.

a. Lagged variable: The code of lagged variable “A” with the time lag from 1 to 99

19
 is defined from “Lag1.A” to “Lag99.A.”
b. Forward variable: The code of forward variable “B” with time 1 to 99 onward is
defined from “Fwd1.B” to “Fwd99.B.”
c. The code of the dummy variable of the year 1973 is “Dum.1973.” It implies
that the value of Dum.1973 is “1” in 1973 and “0” for other years. The
continuous two periods “..” indicates a continuous dummy. For example,
“Dum..1973” indicates that it is “1” for 1973 and the years before 1973.
“Dum.1973..” indicates it is “1” for 1973 and the years after 1973.
“Dum.1973.1980..1985.1990..” indicates it is “1” for 1973, between 1980 and
1985, and 1990 and the after.

Fig. 6.3 Example of dummy variables: 1973 and 1974 are singular years (first
oil crisis).

d. Cyclic dummy variables are a variation of dummy variables.

“Dum.1980.Cyc4” is a dummy variable with value one for every four intervals
from 1980.

6.5 Non-Linear Estimation

Represent coefficients to be estimated by ?0,?1, ?2, ,,, ?n or C(0), c(1) , c(2),,,C(n).
For example, to estimate the coefficients of b1, b2, b3, b4, b5 in the equation y = b1 + b2
× x1^b3 + b4 × x2^b5, enter “?1 + ?2*x1^?3 + ?4*x2^?5” or “C(1) + C(2)*x1^C(3) +
C(4)*x2^C(5)” in the cell of X1.

Fig. 6.4 Example of Non-Linear Estimation and Constraints for the Coefficients.
(Code name “L”, “K”, “X” are external variables)

Up to five constraints for the coefficients can be applied for non-linear estimation: set
the constraints in the “Option Type” column.

Estimation of non-linear models requires Solver-Addin, which is used to minimize

residual sum of square.

20
6.6 Example of Model Sheet
To see the relationship between PES and GDP, three variables of 1) GDP, 2) DEF, and
3) PES are prepared in the data sheet as below.

Fig. 6.5 Data example (same as Fig. 5.2)

A linear model for PES as a dependent variable with three independent variables of
GDPR, lagged dependent variable, and dummy for the years of first oil crisis
1973–1974 can be formulated as follows with coefficients 0, 1, 2, 3 and error term
.

PES =  0 + 1 × (GDPR) +  2 × Lag1.PES +  3 × (Dum.1973.1974) + 

In the model sheet, this is specified as follows:

Fig. 6.6 Model example

With no specification in the option type column, this model will be solved as a
regression model as a default.

A double-log model can be formulated with the following two equations.

LN(PES) =  0 + 1 × LN(GDPR) +  2 × LN(Lag1.PES)+  3 ×(Dum.1973.1974) + 

PES = EXP(LN_PES)

Fig. 6.7 Model example

The first equation is regression type and the second and the third are direct equations
(definition) type. The variable in the third equation LN_PES is LN(PES) in the first
equation. A user can perform regression analysis without the third equation. In
order to make a forecast from the first equation, the future values of the variables of

21
GDPR and Lag1.PES have to be prepared. In this case, GDP and DEF are external
variables, and have to be prepared by assumption. For Lag1.PES, this is a
predetermined variable if PES is known. However, the first equation does not
calculate PES but it calculates LN(PES). Therefore, PES must be defined using the
third equation for the conversion of LN(PES). Note that LN(PES) is converted to
one variable in the code name “LN_PES” in the third equation, because the code
cannot include “( ).”

These two equations can be represented by one equation with the option type “$DL”
as follows:

Fig. 6.8 Model example (Final)

With this $DL specification, the above model will be solved with a double-log
regression model and the result of LN(PES) in the simulation sheet will be returned
by PES as it is without log transformation.

6.7 Useful tips

1) Simulation Replace
This column is for additional operation to the original formula.

a) The column “AE(Simulation Replace)” is for redefining internal variables from

functional format f(Y). It is useful to reveal the code of the internal variable
explicitly in the simulation sheet. For example, in Fig. 6.7, LN(PES) is
converted to PES by the equation “PES = EXP(LN_PES).” However, this
equation can be defined in column “AE” as follows (Fig. 6.9): “$Y” is special
code that represent estimated equation of the specific internal variable. In this
case “$Y" represents “LN(PES).” This specification can be sued for functional
form of internal variable to convert to other form within the same row.

Ex1. Semi-log model: ln(Y)=a+bX can be redefined by

Y=exp($Y), here $Y=a+bX.
($Y represents the original equation of the model)
Ex2. Logit model: Log(P/(1-P))=a+bX => P=EXP($Y)/(1+EXP($Y))

Fig. 6.9 Simulation Replace (Replace Equation)

22
b) Operation of Goal Seek and/or Solver5

The functions of Goal Seek and Solver are applicable.

- Goal Seek Option:

① !GS=0 X: Goal seek to zero by Changing Variable X.("0" can be other
value or defined variable)
- Solver Option:
① !SL=0 X: Solver to zero by Changing Variable X.("0" can be other value
or defined variable)
② !MAX X: Solver to maximize by Changing Variable X
③ !MIN X: Solver to minimize by Changing Variable X

The following example of “!SL=PES1 GDP” in Fig.6.10 for the variable PES
specifies that GDP is determined to make PES equal to PES1.

Fig. 6.10 Simulation Replace (Solver Option)

2) Simulation Add Name

The column “AF(Simulation Add Name)” is for naming values, variables, and
equations. There are three methods to use this.

a) If you want to use an alias for the name of an internal variable (Internal Y), for
example, alias “PES2” is inputted into column “Internal Y,” and “PES” is inputted
into column “AF(Simulation Add Name),” in this case, “PES2” will be treated as
“PES” in this row. The result is equivalent to set PES2=PES. (see Fig. 6.11).

Fig. 6.11 Simulation Add Name (a)

b) Column “AF(Simulation Add Name)” is for entering defined equations, as shown

in the following figure. “Fig. 6.12” is same as “Fig. 6.8.” However, if “GDPR”
is used in only this row, it makes the model sheet easy to view.

5
To use Solver, Solver Add-In needs to be installed.

23
Fig. 6.12 Simulation Add Name (b)

c) Column “AF(Simulation Add Name)” is for naming constant values as shown in

the following figure:

Fig. 6.12 Simulation Add Name (c)

24
7 Model Check

7.1 Model Check

After completing the model specification, it should be checked. The SEE. “Model
Check” program can be launched by clicking on the “Check” button on the “Main”
tab of the SEE. Main Menu. The two primary functions of this process are: 1) set
available sample range for each model, and 2) perform a model audit including a
simple spell and formula check of variables and separation of internal and external
variables.

For each model, each sample range of all variables in the model will be searched and
the available sample range for the model will be inserted in the columns “Sample
Begin” and “Sample End.”

Model audit creates a table “Model Audit.” The table shows the code of every
internal variable and external variable of each model without the functional form. If
the row adjacent to the independent variables of one row includes an internal variable
from elsewhere, it displays the location that the internal variable refers. The location
is shown by the serial number of the referring equation. All variables that appear in
the “Internal Y” column are shown with a Italic and Bold font (column “K” of the
model sheet). All other variables that are not in “Y” are displayed with their codes
in the whole model. The variables without the Bold font are categorized as external
variables.

7.2 Example
Click the “Main” tab of SEE. Main Menu, and then the “Check” button. Source data
sheet is shown in “Fig. 5.2” and source model sheet in “Fig. 6.8.”

The sample range (Sample Begin and Sample End) will be searched and entered by
the system in a red font. In this example, the PES data were prepared from 1969 to
1977. However, because the first model includes one period lagged dependent
variable, the available sample range is between 1970 and 1977.

The next figure shows a part of the “Model Audit” mentioned in the above example.

Fig. 7.1 Model Sheet after “Model Check” process

For the “Model ID 1” with code name “PES,” the audit table indicates that the first
variable PES in the Bold font is an internal variable. The second variable
represented by number “2” is the variable defined in “Model ID 2.” The third
variable represented by number “1” is the variable defined in “Model ID 1.” The
fourth variable is a dummy variable to be treated as an external variable.

25
For the “Model ID 2” with code name “GDPR,” the audit table indicates that, the first
variable GDPR is an internal variable, and the second and the third variables, “GDP”
and “DEF” are external variables.

7.3 Display Model structure

In the colored part of the model audit area of a model sheet (Fig. 7.1), a simplified
model structure of the selected model will be searched and displayed in a message
box. For example, select “PES” in the model audit table and click the information
button of the SEE. toolbar. A message box as shown below is displayed (Fig.
7.2).

Fig. 7.2 Model structure of PES

The structure-search nesting limit is 10 levels by default. If deeper levels of nesting

are required for searching, refer to “11.5.2 Preferences → Model Sheet.”

26
8 Solve (Model Analysis)

8.1 Regression Models

All the regression models in the model sheet can be analyzed by the “Solve” flow
program prepared by SEE. In order to launch this program, open the SEE. Main
Menu and click the “Solve” button. The results will be inserted into the model
summary and model equation columns of the model sheet.

The item in summary consists of following information

1) Definition; Definitive equation

2) Direct; Direct copy from datasheet
3) LS: Least Square = Minimum Residual Sum of Square
4) GS: 1st Order Autoregression model by Grid Search
5) R: R-Square (0<&<1). Better close to 1
6) AR: Adjusted R. (<1) Better close to 1 (Use when sample size is small. for
example size <10)
7) DW: Durbin Watson Stat. (0<&<4). Suspect serial correlation if >3 or <1; this can
be distorted in case of missing value(s)
8) Dh: Durbin h Stat. for models with lagged dependent variable (Lag1.). Suspect
serial corr. if >2 or <-2
9) Rho: Coefficient of serial correlation (-1<&<1) and its t-value in ( ) for $GS
option or with Dh stat.
10) DF: Deg. of Freedom (>1). & p-Value 5%Level(p5% of R,F,t, & Rho)
11) F: F-Stat. (>0). The larger the better
12) LST: No.of Lost Cases (missing value(s))
13) RSS: Residual Sum of Square(>0). The Smaller the better
14) SDV: Residual Standard Deviation(>0). The Smaller the better
15) AC: Akaike Information Criterion, The smaller the better
16) JB: Jarque-Bera Normality Criterion of Residual & (p-Value>0), The smaller the
better
17) YX: Correlation coefficient. (-1<&<1) between Y and X's
18) XX: Correlation coefficient. (-1<&<1) between X's, Suspect muti-colinearity if
>.95 or <-.95
19) P%: Partial Test (Sample Range/Root Mean Square(RMS)%/Mean(M)%/Mean
Absolute(MA)%)
: Partial Test Alert with Red Font
- Large Error: M or MA >= 100%
- or Large Bias: ABS(M) > 50% And Abs(M) > MA

20) OPTIONS
#URT: Unit Root Test with p-Value for Dickey Fuller t-Test and Augmented
Dickey Fuller F-Test
-Reject random walk if p>0.95, fail to reject random walk if p<0.05 (sample size
should be >25)
-DickeyFuller(no constant/constant/consatnt and trend)
-AugmentedDF(1Lag/1-2Lags/1-3Lags/1-4Lags)]
#HET: Heteroscedasticity Test with Chi distribution level of significance for
Godfrey Koenker, Breusch Pagan and White's
-Reject homoscedasticity if CHI<0.05 (for large sample No.-->>30 or more)

27
 -Breuch Pagan--variables are the same as Xs used
-White's--variables are all Xs, all X squares, and all cross Xs--example X1, X2,
X1*X1, X2*X2, X1*X2

Fig. 8.1 “Solve” flow performed on the model sheet from “Fig. 7.1”
(The default setup is changed for easy viewing6)

8.2 Defined equations

The Solve procedure calculates the given equation within the sample range and inserts
the result in the simulation sheet.

8.3 Copying a value directly without the equation

Without specifying the option type and independent variable but only specifying the
internal variable prepared in the data sheet, the Solve procedure sets the given value of
the given variable into simulation sheet directly from the data sheet within the sample
range.

8.4 View Graph and Information

Once the regression result of a model is obtained, a chart of the variable can be
created instantly by clicking the button of the SEE. toolbar in the model sheet.
The actual value, the model estimate, and the residuals can be graphically compared,
as shown in the following figure:

In Fig. 8.1, the “Insert Linefeed for Summary” option is checked before the solve process (see 11.5.5
6

Preferences → Shared). “Linefeed” is inserted to separate each item for easy view.

28
Fig. 8.2 PES Graph of data in “Fig. 8.1”
(Left Y-axis range is changed from original for easy view)

The regression result can be checked by simply selecting a cell from the relevant
model (select cell before “Model Summary” column) and click . The
summarized information, similar to that shown below, will be displayed.

If is clicked when the cursor is on the “Model Summary” column, the explanation
for the “Summary” will be displayed.

If is clicked when the cursor is beyond “Model Audit” column, the “Model
structure” will be displayed (see 7.3 Display Model structure).

Fig. 8.3 PES Information of data in “Fig. 8.1”

29
9 Simulation

9.1 Start Simulation

In order to obtain future forecast simulation for an “Internal Variable,” the future
periods must be set as “Time Label” in the data sheet (see 5.1 Data Sheet).

Simulation using the results of “Solve” can be automated by the “Simulate” flow
program in SEE.. In order to launch this program, open the SEE. Main Menu and
click on “Simulate” button. The results will be inserted into the simulation sheet.
All external variables are inserted just below the last row of internal variables.

SEE. assumes the future values of external variables from linear or growth trend,
depending on the selected option of the preference menu (see 11.5.3 Default
Projection), unless the future assumed values are specified in the data sheet.

Once all forecasts are made, all the equations that are defined and solved in the model
sheet are inserted into the cells of forecasts. The equations in simulation refer to
variables within the same simulation sheet.

9.2 Simulation Sheet

A simulation sheet consists of
1) Free columns
2) Code names
3) Actual values
4) Simulated Forecasts
5) Summary & Formula

1) Free Columns (Fig. 9.1 ①)

The initial columns “A to J” are the free area similar to the data sheet and the
model sheet.

The columns following column K are reserved for SEE..

2) Code Names (Fig. 9.1 ②)

The column “K” shows the same code name as that in the model sheet except for
the variable in functional form with operators. In such exceptional cases, SEE.
converts parts of these characters such as “+,” “-,” “*,” “/,” “^,” “(”, and “)”
into “_.”

3) Actual Values (Fig. 9.1 ③)

Next, from column “L,” the values in Black or Gray color font are copied from the
actual values from the data sheet.

4) Simulated Forecasts (Fig. 9.1 ③)

The simulation forecasts or the cells with formulas are shown in the red color font.
The simulation results can be changed to values using the options in the “Default
Format” group box in the preferences menu (see 11.5.3 Preferences → Simulation

30
 Sheet). The cells of forecasts contain estimated or defined equations. If the
forecasts are Simple E2xtrapolations of the trends calculated by SEE., then the font
color is set to magenta. These cells in magenta color cells do not contain
equations.

5) Summary & Formula (Fig. 9.1 ④)

The cell subsequent to the last value is the Summary and Formula of the
“Variable.” If the variable is “External,” this cell possesses only summary.

Fig. 9.1 Simulation Sheet after the “Simulate” process.

6) Graphical Check
(i) Forecast graph (Fig. 9.2): Once the forecast result of a model is inserted in the
simulation sheet, the chart(s) of the variable(s) with actual and forecast values can
be created instantly by clicking the button of the SEE. toolbar. A user can
compare the actual value and the forecast graphically, as shown in Fig. 9.2.

The target variable turns into a variable of a single line with a cursor (but not
“Summary & Formula Area” in this case).

Fig. 9.2 Graph of “PES” in “Fig. 9.1.” Data for years subsequent to 1977 after red
dot are “Forecasts.”
(Left Y-axis range is changed from original for easy view..)

31
(j) Impulse response (Fig. 9.3): In some forecast, a change in one period can
influence subsequent periods. The response of the forecast or so-called impulse
response can be graphically checked through following procedure.
a) Select the cell to change.
b) Next, using multiple selections, select two continuous columns of the variable
to trace.
c) If there are more than one variable to trace, select their cells one by one.
d) Click button

PHO Change(1%) and Impulse Response

1.2
1
0.8
0.6
Changes (%)

0.4 PHO
0.2 QHO
0 NHO
Jul-88

Jul-89

Jul-90

Jul-91

Jul-92

Jul-93

Jul-94

Jul-95

-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
Fig. 9.3 Impulse Response

9.3 Summary of Simulation

The next example shows five lines of simulation summary at the end of each row.
The upper two lines are an example of the simulation summary of the internal
variables and the other lines are the example of the summary of external variables.

Fig. 9.3 Summary of Simulation

The contents of each line include the following items.

1. Model ID (not available for external variables)
2. Code Name
3. G% => (Compound) Growth Rates (%) (Actual Part / Simulation Part)
4. Equation of each model—For regression model, the figures in each equation
are regression coefficients and their t-values are given in parentheses.
5. Trend Options—Show trend and other options.

32
9.4 Model Fitness: Error of Model Estimate from Actual Data
In order to compare the past actual value and the simulated past value (model
estimate), the actual values of past periods have to be replaced with the estimated
model equations. SEE. calculates three types of indices of errors for reference.

They are root mean square % error (R), mean % error (M), and mean absolute %
error (A) defined in the below formula

2
1 T  Yt s  Yt a 
R  
T t 1  Yt a 
 ×100 (%)

1 T Yt s  Yt a
M   ×100 (%)
T t 1 Yt a

 ABS (Y t
s
 Yt a )
A  t 1
T
×100 (%)
Y
t 1
t
a

Where Yt s = Simulated value of period t

Yt a = Actual value of period t
T = Number of periods in the simulation

The three methods for these calculations are 1) Partial test summary, 2) Manual
operation for selected variables, and 3) Final test summary for all variables.

1) Partial test summary (see 8.1 Regression Models)

Partial test summary will be automatically created during the “Solve” process. It
is calculated as a default for every variable in the model sheet for each
corresponding sample period. In this partial test, the model estimate is limited to
the dependent variable of the individual model for the given sample period, while
all independent variables are historical actual data.

2) Manual Selection of Period and Variable

For the simulation sheet, the “Simulation” flow brings historical actual data for the
period of sample range and the estimated value with the model equation in red font
for the period beyond the sample range. The comparison of the estimate from the
“Model equation” (red font) and the future assumption by trend is calculated.

In order to obtain the results of the above indices for this case:
a. Select the relevant portion of the range (select red font).
b. Click the SEE. toolbar information button .

The information message box will be displayed. The information of the error for
the selected range will be displayed as an item of Error with the title “Error
(RMS%…)” (see Fig. 9.4).

33
Fig. 9.4 Information of PES (1978–1982)

The differences of the simulation and “future assumption by trend” can be checked
graphically by navigating to the last cell of the selected variable, which contains
the summary information, and clicking on the graph button (Fig. 9.5).

In the graph, the blue line shows the PES and future trend, while the red line
shows the model simulated forecast. The historical actual data shown in blue is
overlapped by a red line of similar length.

Fig. 9.5 Red line before 1977 represents actual data. The red line after 1977
represents forecast data. The blue line is the linear trend future
assumption of PES (Therefore, it is a straight line).
(Left Y-axis range is changed from original for easy view.)

For the historical period, the “Error” can be calculated by copying the model
equation to the cells.

The figure given below (Fig. 9.6) shows the graph after copying the model
equation to the historical portion of the data.

The operation for copying the “model equation” to the “cell of actual data”
follows:

a. Change the color of font from black (not containing gray) to red for the range
b. Click the single flow button .

Since the historical part is replaced by the model equation, the difference of the
historical portion and the trend represented by the blue line and the model estimate
represented by the red line becomes evident.

34
 Fig. 9.6 Red line is created using only estimation data. Blue line prior to 1977
represents actual data. Blue line subsequent to 1977 is a linear trend
future assumption of PES (Therefore, it is a straight line subsequent to
1977).
(Left Y-axis range is changed from original for easy view.)

For both graphs, the orange line with the 2nd Y-axis represents the growth rate of
the value represented by the red line, which represents the data in the active
simulation sheet.

3) Final test summary for all variables.

The final Test can be performed by manual operation only.

a. The test period has to be assigned by selecting the corresponding columns in

the “TIME” row (2nd row) of the simulation sheet as one area.
b. Click single flow button .
c. The test result will be stored in clipboard, which can be used by pasting.

After the calculation, the font of test period in “TIME” changes to italic. The
error indices will be calculated and added to the summary columns of all internal
variables, and displayed in information (see F% in Fig. 9.7). The result can be
checked graphically by clicking the graph button on selecting the row of the
relevant variable within the columns of the test period. The model estimate will
be shown by the blue line for the test period. The red line represents the data in
the data sheet, which includes the historical actual data to be compared.

35
Fig. 9.7 Final test (from 1973 to 1977)

Fig. 9.8 Red line prior to 1977 represents actual data. Red line subsequent to
1977 represents forecast data. Blue line is estimated by replacing the
actuals of all internal variables to model estimate.

The orange line for 2nd Y-axis represents the error (difference) between the red
and the blue line.

36
PART 3: Functions of SEE.

37
10 SEE. toolbar buttons

SEE. has five buttons on the toolbar as shown below.

Fig. 10.1 SEE. toolbar

10.1 : Main Menu

The “Main Menu” is explained in section 11.

10.2 : Synchronize (Synchronize the variables of a row for all windows)

Select a variable from the active data sheet, model sheet, or simulation sheet, and
click this button. Then, instances of the same variable in other sheets of data, model,
or simulation will be selected. It implies that you can access the same variable in all
these sheets without search.

For example, you are working on the model of GDPR in model sheet, and you have
selected the GDPR row in the model sheet. To jump to the GDPR variable in other
sheets, for example the data sheet, just click this button. If you open the data sheet,
the variable GDPR is already selected.

10.3 : Graph (Create graph(s) of the variable(s) for the selected row(s))

10.3.1 Graph View for Single Variable

When you click the button in a SEE. worksheet, if the cursor is on a variable
row, a graph for the corresponding variable is created.

If you click the button and the cursor is on the “TIME” row, simply moving the
cursor between the rows displays a graph for the corresponding row. Moving the
cursor on the “TIME” row again releases this function. Clicking the button after
selecting two cells in a row also enables the same function.

10.3.2 Graph View for Multiple Variables

There are several view types of the graph for multiple variables.

a) Displaying multiple variables in a single graph

Selecting multiple variables in the data sheet or simulation sheet by using
“multiple area selection”7 displays those variables in a single graph (Fig. 10.1).

“Multiple area selection” is to select two or more cells separately, while the Control key [Ctrl] is
7

depressed.

38
Fig. 10.2 PES and GDPR of data in Fig. 9.1

b) Displaying x-y graph between two variables (with label)

The order of selection is important. First, select a variable used as the label.
At this point, select three cells including the “Code Name.” Next, select a
variable used for the X-axis, and then select a variable used for the Y-axis (Fig.
10.3).

Fig. 10.3 (1) Time (selecting 3 cells), (2) GDPR, (3) PES

Clicking the button displays a graph as follows (Fig. 10.4).

39
Fig. 10.4 Correlation chart between GDPR and PES
(X and Y-axis ranges are changed for easy viewing.)

If you select more than two cells as the label, the range of displayed label is
limited to the selected cells.

By selecting more than one group of variables as the label in the graph, you
can differentiate marks representing each group (Fig. 10.5 and 10.6). Note that
you need to select three or more cells for the first group of variables.

Fig. 10.5 (1) Time-1972, (2) 1973–1974, (3) 1975–1982, (4) GDPR, (5) PES

Fig. 10.6 ◆1969–1972 ■1973–1974 ▲1975–1982

(X and Y-axis ranges are changed for easy viewing.)

40
 Note, however, that this function might not be able to display the graph
properly if the code contains a missing value.

c) Superimposition view for the simulation sheet

When more than one simulation sheet exists (refer to 12.1, two or more case
studies), if you select a “Code Name” in a sheet and then click the button,
data for the same “Code Name” is displayed from all the simulation sheets in a
single graph.

However, note that, to use this function, the “Code Name” in each sheet must
be located in the same cell address.

You can use the above-mentioned functions (except function superimposition)) for
any worksheet that is not designated for SEE., if the table structure is the same as
SEE..

10.4 : Single Flow (Reset and Re-calculate the equation(s) of the variable(s) of
the selected row(s))

This function corresponds to Solve flow and Simulate flow for only the selected
variable. If the checkbox for Link Single Flows of Main menu is selected, the
recalculation can be linked to the succeeding flows, i.e., if variable(s) are selected
from data sheet, the program will find the models that directly related model(s) from
the model sheet; then, flows of data: check, solve, and simulation of the model(s) will
follow. All flows for only the selected model(s) will follow if they are selected in
the model sheet. If activated from the simulation sheet, only the simulation flow will
follow on the selected variable(s).

10.5 : Information
Clicking this button shows the related information of the selected variable of the
selected sheet. In the data sheet, clicking this button with multiple selections of
variables will display the coefficients between the first selection and the others (see
11.5.4 Preferences → Information).

The information displayed by the button is always copied to the clipboard.

This enables you to use the displayed information even after the message box is
closed, simply by pasting the data to other applications, such as MS-Word.

Clicking the button while the header of each sheet is selected displays diverse
information on the Simple E2 specifications.

10.5.1 Correlation Coefficient

If you select multiple variables in a data sheet or a simulation sheet and then click
the button, a message box displays the correlation coefficients for the selected
variables. For details, see “11.5.4 Preferences → Information.”

41
 Depending on the selected cell, the correlation coefficients' information is displayed
in addition to the currently displayed information.

10.5.2 Correlation Coefficient and Regression

When you select numeric cells by using the “multiple area selection” method and
then click the button, if the number of selected cells is identical between the
selected areas, correlation coefficients and regression are calculated and displayed in
the message box. Regression is obtained for three types of log transformation as
well as for linear equations (Fig. 10.7 and 10.8).

Fig. 10.7 Multiple area selection for numeric cells

Fig. 10.8 Correlation Coefficient and Regression

Since this function only depends on the selected numeric cells, any worksheet can
use this function even if the worksheet is not designated for SEE.. (see 12.6 Stand
Alone Functions).

42
11 Main Menu

You can display the “Main Menu” by clicking the button in the SEE. toolbar.

The “Main Menu” consists of the following six tabs; “Main” , “Graph” ,
“Correlation” , “Sensitivity” , “Preferences” , and “Utility”.

Clicking the area of the left side at the top of the “Main Menu” (① in the figure
below) minimizes the menu, and clicking the area again restores it to the original size.
Clicking to the top-right of the Menu (② in the figure below) maximizes the menu.

① ②

Three sizes by one click

43
11.1 Main

Fig. 11.1 Main Tab in the Main Menu

1) Main Flow
“Main Flow” is used to control three processes. These processes can be run either
individually or consecutively.

Check (button):
Checks the contents of the data sheet and model sheet.

Solve (button):
Calculates and solves model equation based on the contents of the data sheet
and model sheet, by using the regression model.
For “Model Summary,” the statistics of the model equation are determined.
Further, the relations of model equation are displayed in the “Model Audit
Table.”

Simulate (button):
Future assumption (future assumed value) is also calculated for the external
variables including the deterministic equation. This enables the simulation
function to forecast all simulated (model) equations.

Check & Solve (button):

Runs “Check” and “Solve” processes consecutively.

Solve & Simulate (button):

Executes “Solve” and “Simulate” processes consecutively.

ALL THROUGH (Button):

44
 Runs “Check,” “Solve,” and “Simulate” processes consecutively.

Link Single Flow [=ab](check box):

Executing the “Single Flow” process (by clicking ) for a code automatically
executes the “Single Flow” process for the same code in the worksheets other
than that on which the process was executed.
For details on the “Single Flow” process, see “10.4 Single Flow.”

2) Create SEE. Worksheets

This frame is used to create a new set of sheets for SEE.. The name specified in
the “Sheets Names” tab is used as the name of the created sheet.

Add to New Workbook (button):

Creates a set of new sheets in a new workbook.

Add to Active Workbook (button):

Adds a set of new sheets in the currently active workbook. This function is
available only for a workbook that is not being currently used by SEE..

Additional explanations on the “Sheets Names” tab and “Additional Data Sheets”
tab are given in (12.1 Two or more case studies.)

For details regarding how to add a workbook to that currently used by SEE., see
“11.6.1.1 Utility.”

45
11.2 Graph

SEE
.

Fig. 11.2 Graph Tab in Main Menu

The “Graph” tab is used to draw a graph in the sheet for the data of the row selected
from the “Code” list box in the sheet selected from the “Sheet” list box. In addition,
the “Graph” tab displays information on the selected code in the text box. The
information displayed in the text box by default is the contents of the cells in the code
row. If you select the “Summary” check box, the display switches to the summary
view (Fig. 11.3). In the summary view, information on both the “Model Summary”
and “Simulate Summary” for the code is displayed.

The number of graphs displayed is only one by default. If you select the
“Multiple Graph” check box, a graph is added when a different code is selected in the
“Code” list box or “Sheet” list box (Fig. 11.4).

Clicking the “Copy Graph” button copies all the displayed graphs to the clipboard
as a single image.

Clicking the “ZOOM” button increases or decreases the font size in the text box.

Double clicking the text area copies the displayed information to the clipboard.

When graphs are displayed and the cursor is on the “Code” list box, pressing the
[+] or [–] key selects a graph (background of the selected graph turns ocher in color).
The text box displays information on the code for the selected graph. Pressing the
key continuously moves the selection of the graph.

If you attempt to draw a graph for another code at this point, the new graph
overwrites the selected graph rather than being added regardless of the selection in the
“Multiple Graph” check box.

46
 SEE.

Fig. 11.3 View Summary

Fig. 11.4 Multiple Graph

47
11.3 Correlation

SEE
.

Fig. 11.5 Correlation Tab in Main Menu

The “Correlation” tab displays the calculated results of the correlation matrix and
related values for multiple variables selected in the data sheet or the simulation sheet
in the text box.

Select multiple variables in the data sheet or the simulation sheet, and then click the
relevant buttons to obtain the results.

To re-select variables, click “RefEdit” (circled in red in the figure given below) to
move the cursor to “RefEdit,” and then click the desired cell in the sheet. You can
select multiple cells in the manner similar to normal operation. A cell in another
sheet can also be selected.

To clear the settings in “RefEdit,” click the title caption (circled in blue in the figure
below) for “RefEdit.”

C. Matrix (button): Correlation Matrix

Calculates the correlation matrix for the selected variable and displays the results
(Fig. 11.5)

P.C. (button): Principal Components

Calculates the principal components, eigen-value, and eigen-vector as well as
correlation matrix and displays the results of the selected variable.

V.C. (button): Variance-Covariance Matrix

Calculates the variance-covariance matrix for the selected variable, and displays the
results.

ZOOM (button):

48
 Increases or decreases the font size in the text box.

Double clicking the text area copies the displayed information to the clipboard.

11.4 Sensitivity

Fig. 11.6 Sensitivity Tab in

Main Menu

11.4.1 Sensitivity (tab) → Sensitivity (tab)

The “Sensitivity” tab is used to check the effects of a certain cell’s variance on the
(“Forecasted”) values of other cells.

Trace (frame):
There are two types of modes (circled in red in Fig. 11.6); “Sensitivity” (option
button) and “Reverse Trace” (option button).

11.4.1.1 Sensitivity (tab) → Sensitivity (tab) → Sensitivity (option button)

If you select the Sensitivity mode, in “Cell to Change” (RefEdit), selectNote the cells
that contain the value to be changed (multiple cells are selectable); the contents in the
selected cells can either be a value or a formula.

Clicking the “Sensitivity Trace” button launches the process. You can view the
successive changes in the values of the sheet by default. Press the [Esc] key to stop
the process.

If you specify the cells (multiple cells are specifiable) to be traced in “Cells to
Trace” (RefEdit), a dialog box displays the detailed results (Fig. 11.7). Note that the
contents of the cells specified in “Cells to Trace” (RefEdit) must be a formula.

49
 Fig. 11.7 Detailed Result of Sensitivity

If you select the cells to be traced in “Cells to Trace” (RefEdit) and specify a
destination cell in “Result Output” (RefEdit), the results will be calculated into the
specified cell rather than the dialog box. If “Cells to Trace” is blank, the displayed
results, as shown in Fig. 11.7, are stored in the clipboard.

To re-select a cell, click “RefEdit” (circled in red in the figure below) to move the
cursor to “RefEdit,” and then click the desired cell in the sheet. You can select
multiple cells in the manner similar to normal operation. A cell in another sheet is
also selectable.

To clear the setting in “RefEdit,” click the title caption (circled in blue in the figure
below) for “RefEdit.”

Change in Change Cells (Frame):

This frame is used to specify the rules for the changes in the cells specified in “Cell
to Change” as follows:

Change in Percent (option button and slide bar):

Changes the value by the specified rate (%). Multiple cells are selectable in
“Cells to Change” (RefEdit).

Interval (option button and slide bar):

This option enables time interval between each changes. This will make easy
to visually check each change and animate the changes with some intervals.

Run Single Flow (check box):

This option force to run “single flow ” between each change. This option
can be used when the each impact have to be checked after running some models
and/or simulation flows.

Change Amount (option button and text box):

Specifies the amount of changes using a numeric value. Only a single cell is
selectable in “Cell to Change” (RefEdit).

Reference Cells of Change Amount (option button and RefEdit):

Specifies the cells that contain the total changes (multiple cells are specifiable).
Only a single cell is selectable in “Cells to Change” (RefEdit).

New Value (option button and text box):

Specifies the value. Multiple cells are selectable in “Cells to Change”
(RefEdit).

50
 Reference Cells of New Value (option button and RefEdit):
Specifies the cells that specify the value. Only a single cell is selectable in
“Cells to Change” (RefEdit).

For all of the above rules, the value changes in the interval specified (in
seconds) in the “Interval” (slide bar). When multiple cells are selected in “Cell
to Change” (RefEdit), if the “Simultaneous” check box (default-off) is selected,
the selected cells change concurrently (by default, the values change
consecutively in order).

Fig. 11.8 The selection method

of a cell

11.4.1.2 Sensitivity (tab) → Sensitivity (tab) → Reverse Trace (option button)

Fig. 11.9 Reverse Trace Mode

51
 The Reverse Trace mode performs tracing reversely, and displays the results (Fig.
11.9). Note that reverse trace requires the “Solver” add-in.

Fig. 11.10 Detailed Result of Reverse Trace

The method for specifying the cells for the Reverse Trace mode is described in
“11.4.1.1” However, note that you must always specify the cell to be traced in
“Cells to Trace” (RefEdit). Only a single cell is specifiable in “Cells to Trace.”

The method for specifying the rules in the “Target Values in Cells to Trace” is
described in the explanation given for “Change in Change Cells” for the Sensitivity
mode. The rules specified apply to the cell specified in “Cell to Trace” (RefEdit).

52
11.5 Preferences
The “Preferences” tab is used to specify the default operation for data sheet, model
sheet, and simulation sheet separately.

11.5.1 Preferences (tab) → DataSheet (tab)

Fig. 11.10 Preferences for

Datasheet

Warn Multiple Entry of Same Code Name (System Uses the First Entry) (check
box: default-on):
Specifies whether to detect duplicated code name as an error. Detection is
performed during Check flow.

Allow Missing Value (check box: default-off):

Specifies whether to allow data that contains a cell without entry. Detection is
performed during Check flow.

Copy Simulation Results (check box: default-off):

Specifies whether to copy the results of the Simulate flow processes into the data
sheet. Clicking the “Clear” button immediately erases the results of Simulate flow
from the data sheet.

Direct Link to External Variable in Simulation Sheet:

Specifies how to reference external variables during Simulate flow. By Default this
option is off and the external variables from the datasheet are copied to simulation
sheet for simulation flow. In direct link mode, simulation references external
variables in the data sheet directly.

53
11.5.2 Preferences (tab) → Model Sheet (tab)

Fig. 11.11 Preferences for

Model Sheet

Input Message (Model Summary & Equation) (check box: default-off):

Selecting this check box displays “Model Summary” and “Model Equation” for the
row where the cursor locates in the sheet in a popup window. The displayed
information varies depending on the cell.

Copy Comment from Datasheet (check box: default-off):

Selecting this check box copies the information in the comment area in the data
sheet to the model sheet during Check flow. The combination of the code and
comment is automatically adjusted in order to maintain the same combination in the
model sheet as in the data sheet.

Structure Search Nest Limit (5-100) (slide bar):

If is clicked when the cursor is positioned in “Model Audit,” SEE. performs
model equation structure search for the variables in the row where the cursor locates.
Specify the maximum analysis degree for nesting (nest limit) during structure
search.

54
11.5.3 Preferences (tab) → Simulation Sheet (tab)

Fig. 11.12 Preferences for

Simulation Sheet

Input Message (Summary) (check box: default-off):

Selecting this check box displays “Simulation Summary” for the rows where the
cursor locates in the sheet in a popup window. The displayed information varies
depending on the cell.

Copy Comment From Datasheet (check box: default-off):

Selecting this check box copies the information in the comment area in the data
sheet to the simulation sheet during Simulate flow. The combination of the code and
comment is automatically adjusted in order to maintain the same combination in the
simulation sheet as in the data sheet.

Clear Names & Cell Format (check box: default-on):

In the simulation sheet, you can use the MS-Excel function, “Name Box” (a list
used to jump a selected row) (circled in red in Fig. 11.15).
If this check box is selected, the contents of the “Name Box” are initialized every
time at Simulate flow. The format of the cells in the simulation sheet is also
initialized.

Fig. 11.13 Name box

55
Fill Missing Value by Model (check box: default-off):
Specifies that the value obtained by model equation replace the missing value when
“Allow Missing Value” (11.5.1) is selected. (By default, the value used to replace
the missing value is obtained by regression of the missing value itself.) The
replacement is performed during Simulate flow.

Default Projection:
Specifies how to obtain a future assumed value for the external variable. Select
“Linear Trend” (option button) or “Growth Trend” (option button).
Selecting the “Constant Adjusted” check box specifies that “$CA” (see “6.3 Option
Type”) is selected.
The setting takes effect during Simulate flow.

Default Format:
Specifies whether the entry in the cell for which the value is forecasted during
Simulate flow should be a “Formula” or a “Value,” by using the option buttons.
When the “Value” option is selected, italic font is used.
Clicking each button immediately applies the corresponding setting to the current
results.

11.5.4 Preferences (tab) → Information (tab)

Specifies the operation when is clicked in the SEE. menu bar when the data
sheet is active.

11.5.4.1 Preferences (tab) → Information (tab) → Option (tab)

Specifies the operation when is clicked while multiple codes are selected in the
data sheet.

Fig. 11.14 Preferences for

Information

56
Correlation Coefficient (check box: default-on):
When this check box is selected, the correlation coefficient is displayed for the
selected multiple variables.

Regression (check box: default-off):

When this check box is selected, regression for the selected multiple variables is
calculated. The obtained results are copied in the clipboard.
Note that the first selected variable (or the variable that is located at the top among
the selection) is handled as a dependent variable.

11.5.4.2 Preferences (tab) → Information (tab) → Regression Filter (tab)

The “Regression Filter” tab is used to specify regression structure and filter (Fig.
11.17).

Fig. 11.15 Regression Filter

1) No. of Fixed Regressors (in order of selection) (slide bar)

Specifies the number of variables, which will be fixed as explanatory (independent
variable). If the specified number is other than “0,” the variables are selected in
order beginning from the one selected second (or the second variable from the top
of the selection). The total of the explanatory variables is total of this number and
the number in “No. of explanatory Variables to be Changed.”

2) No. of Explanatory Variables to be Changed (slide bar)

Specifies the number of explanatory variables that are not fixed. The total of the
explanatory variables is the total of this number and the number in “No. of Fixed
Regressors (in order of selection).”

3) Constant (check box: default-on):

Specifies that regression includes a constant term.

57
4) Output Sheet Name (text box):
Specifies that the regression process output the results to the sheet with the
specified name rather than to the clipboard. Do not select the sheet name
reserved by SEE..

FILTER:
Specifies the conditions for determining the significance of the obtained regression
formula. Significance is determined by comparing the statistics of the regression
formula and the specified standard value. The statistic used is as follows:

RSq (R-Square)
ARSq (Adjusted R-Square)
Fixed Xi |t| - Val [i = 1~5] (t-Value of each fixed explanatory variable)
All Exp. |t| - Val (t-Value of all explanatory variables)
At least Exp. |t| - Val (t-Value of at least one explanatory variable)
|Corr.| Bet. Xs (Correlation coefficients between Y and Xs)
Degree of Freedom
Durbin-Watson statisitcs

11.5.5 Preferences (tab) → Shared (tab)

Fig. 11.16 Shared Option

Insert Linefeed for Summary (check box default-off):

Delimits items by using linefeed (LF) when outputting the data into the “Summary”
cell in the model sheet and simulation sheet. No marks are used to represent each
item of “Summary.” This function is useful when you copy and paste data to
MS-Word.

58
Partial/Final Test Alert (check box: default-off):
Alert with red font in the summary column if partial and/or final test of Root Mean
Square(RMS)%, Mean(M)%/, or Mean Absolute(MA)% comes with a following
condition:
- Large Error: RMS or M or MA > 100%
- or Large Bias: ABS(M) > 50% And Abs(M) > MA

ScreenUpdating (check box: default-on):

To speed up the performance, screenupdating can be suppressed by checking off here.
The extent of the speed up depends on each PC configuration usually from 10% to up
to 50%.

11.6 Utility

11.6.1 Utility (tab) → Add & Delete (tab)

11.6.1.1 Utility (tab) → Add & Delete (tab) → SEE. Worksheets (tab)

Fig. 11.17 Utility Tab in

Main Menu

1)Add New Sheet

“Data” (button), “Model” (button), and “Simulation” (button):

Adds the sheet with the name specified in the text box to the current workbook.

If no name is specified and the active sheet is not a SEE. worksheet, the name of the
active sheet is specified.

Copy and Paste Current Selection (check box: default-off):

59
 If this check box is selected, the information in the current sheet is copied to the
new sheet when adding a new sheet.

Additional explanation on the “Add New Sheet” function is given in “12.1 Two or
more case studies.”

2) Delete and Initialize

Del (button):
Deletes the currently active sheet.

Del All (button):

Deletes all sheets used by SEE.. This button must be used from a non-SEE. sheet.

Initialize (button):
Erases the results obtained by Check, Solve, or Simulate flow. After this
operation is performed, only the data directly entered by users remains in the sheet.
This function also restores the damaged cells (Header) provided by default, such as
rows for “TREND.”

11.6.1.2 Utility (tab) → Add & Delete (tab) → Names (tab)

Fig. 11.18 Delete Names

Delete Names
In the simulation sheet, you can use the MS-Excel function, “Name Box” (a list
used to jump to a selected row) (circled in red in Fig. 11.15). The contents of the
“Name Box” are deleted based on the following rules:

60
Selected Codes (button):
Deletes the selected code name from the “Name Box.”

Activesheets (button):
Deletes the names in the active worksheet from the “Name Box.”

Activebook (button):
Deletes the names in the active workbook from the “Name Box.”

11.6.2 Utility (tab) → Color G. Rate (tab)

Fig.11.19 Growth Rate

Color Indicator

This utility is used to paint the cell with the color corresponding to the growth rate.
The color used depends on the settings in “SCALE” (frame).
Fig. 11.23 Example of Growth Rate Color Indicator

61
Color Indicator Type(Option Button: default-Growth Rate):
This is the option to select the indicator to indicate growth rate or.to indicate level
of value.

Data/Simulation Sheet (button):

Paints cells in the data sheet and simulation sheet using a color corresponding to the
growth rate.

CLEAR (Button):
Clear the color in the cells.

RECALL (Button):
Undo one coloring operation on the cell.

Selected Range (button):

Paints only the cells in the selected range of the sheet by using the color
corresponding to the growth rate.

SCALE:
Specifies the center value of the growth rate by using the “Slide Bar” at the left.
Use the “Slide Bar” at the right to specify the range of growth rate.

If the calculation of growth rate results in an error (for example, due to division by
zero), the cells are painted by the color in “n.a.” to the upper right of “SCALE.”

62
11.7 Solver
The “Solver” tab is used to find optimum solutions to under specific target and
conditions

11.7.1 Solver (tab) → ExcelSolver (tab)

This is prepared to support the excel solver add-in so that it can solve beyond the limit
of the number of decision variables.

Fig. 11.28 Excel Solver

Solver(Button):
Calculate the decision variables by blocks of row-wise or column-wise.Solver is
applied to each blocks separately as if it is a variable and repeat the calculation of
separate blocks until it reach to a target.

Model Description Range (RefEdit: default-blank):

Specifies the saved range using excel solver.

Optional Obj. Cells (RefEdit: default-blank):

This is optional. Set range, which contains other objective cells.

Font Color/Type (Dropdownbox: default-blank)

Specify the font color or font style to select objective cell from the range specified
in “Optional Obj. Cells”.

63
11.7.2 Solver(tab) → MonteCarlo

Fig. 11.29 MonteCarlo

In the Monte Carlo Simulation mode, the values of the cells to be changed (selected
by “MEAN” (RefEdit) in the “Random Variables Option” frame) are randomized
according to the specified rules.

Clicking the “Start” button changes the value at random repeatedly for the number
of times selected in the “No. of Trial” list box, and the distribution of the values of the
cell specified in “Cells to Trace” (RefEdit) is displayed in the graph (Fig. 11.11)
(when the “Histogram” option is selected in “Output Range and Option”).

Between the options “No Filter” and “Between 0 =< and =< 1,” ensure that you
select “No Filter.”

If you check the “Suppress Screen Updating” check box (default-off), the
information on the screen will not be refreshed for faster performance.

Fig. 11.30 Histogram output

64
Random Variables Option (Frame):
This frame is used to specify the cells to be changed and the rules for the change.
Select the cell to be changed in “MEAN” (RefEdit).

1) Normal Distribution (Default: Mean 0, sdv 1)

Specify the cell to be changed in “Mean” (RefEdit), and the cell that contains
the standard deviation in “STD” (RefEdit) (preparing a numeric cell might be
convenient). The random values form the normal distribution based on the
settings.

2) Uniform Distribution (Default: 0～1)

Specify the cell to be changed in “Mean” (RefEdit), and the center value of the
variability range in “Range +/-” (preparing a numeric cell might be convenient).
The random values are generated by equivalent probability within the specified
range.

65
PART 4: Advanced Operation

66
12 Advanced Operation

12.1 Integration of multiple case studies

SEE. allows you to simulate multiple cases in a single workbook.

Example 1: Multiple Data Sheets

To perform multiple case studies, add a data sheet by using the function for adding
a sheet (11.6.1.1). If the data patterns are similar, it is recommended that you select
the “Copy & Paste Current Selection” (11.6.1.1) in advance.

This example assumes that a data sheet named “Data2” is added.

After the data sheet is added, “Data2” becomes selectable from the “Data Sheet
(Source#0)” list box in the “Sheet Name” tab of the “Main” tab (Fig. 12.1).

Fig. 12.1 Select Alternative

Sheet Name

If the settings are as shown in Fig. 12.1, Simple E2 runs using “Data2” as a data
sheet.

Example 2: Multiple Model Sheet

Further, by adding a model sheet, multiple models can be applied to a single data
pattern.

Example 3: Multiple Simulation Sheets

If multiple simulation sheets are prepared, outputting the simulation results for each
data is possible.

67
12.2 Additional Data Sheets

If you specify additional data sheets in the “Data Source#?” list box in the “Additional
DataSheets” tab, those data sheets are handled as a single data sheet. If the same
code name exists in multiple data sheets at this point, the code name of the data sheet
that has the smallest number in the “Source#?” list box takes priority.

12.3 Change Font Color

Data is handled differently depending on the font color.

Example 1: User defined “Sample Range”

After Check flow is performed, the “Sample Range” (“Sample Begin” and “Sample
End”) is set automatically in the model sheet. The font color used is red.

If you change the data to a desired value and change its font to a color other than
red, the user-defined period becomes the “Sample Range” used to calculate regression
coefficient during Solve flow.

Example 2: Invalidating a model

If you change the color of the code name for the “Internal Y” column in the model
sheet to red, the entries in that row are ignored in the subsequent flow. In other
words, the variables become the external variables.

Due to this, if the variable cannot be used as the external variable, the code name
becomes unknown; therefore, the subsequent flow results in an error.

Example 3: Using the Simulate results

When the results of Simulate flow are copied to a data sheet (11.4.1), the color of
the copied values is red (or magenta). Even if Check flow is performed again, these
values are considered as invalid and are ignored.

However, if you change the font color of these values to a color other than red or
magenta, they are considered as user-defined values, and the subsequent Check flow
treats them as valid data.

12.4 Change Sheet Name

SEE. generally uses default sheet names. If the sheet requires renaming, the
“Utility (11.6.1.1)” function can be used.

Activate the sheet for which you want to change the name. Use the “Utility
(11.6.1.1)” to enter a new name in the text box, and then click the “Data,” “Model,” or
“Simulate” button.

A new sheet that has the new name and contains the same data as the source sheet is
created. Then, use the “Del” button to delete the source sheet.

68
12.5 Montecarlo Simulation
This section describes how to evaluate possible values for a dependent variable by
using independent variable’s coefficient as stochastic in a formula.

Example: Checking Sensitivity for the cell (U4) where the cursor is located, as
shown in Fig. 12.2

The formula of the cell (U4) is displayed at the top of the window (circled in red).

Select two cells (including the subject cell) that belong to the same code name (for
example, T6:U6), and then click . The formula in the cell changes, as shown in
Fig. 12.3 (circled in red).

Fig. 12.2 Original Formula

Fig. 12.3 Formula changes after two cells are selected and Single flow is performed.

In the formula, the portion indicated as “C..0” is a special variable. The formula
containing special variable behaves in a similar manner to an independent variable
that takes random values in the normal distribution. Every time you press the [F9]
key, the special variable generates a new random value.

At this point, if you specify the settings in the Monte Carlo Simulation tab as
follows, and then click the “Start” button, the operation runs and summarizes the
results, which is the same operation as performed by pressing the [F9] key repeatedly

69
as many times as the number specified in the “No. of Trial” list box.

Fig. 12.4 MonteCarlo

The results are as follows:

Fig. 12.5

To return the formula in the cell to its original state, click while selecting only
one cell in the corresponding row.

12.6 Stand Alone Menu and Functions

There are menus and functions, which are applicable any workbook with or without
SEE. worksheet. These stand-alone menus and functions are listed below.
1) Graph menu(tab):=> see 11.3
2) Sensitivity(tab):=> see 11.4
3) Utility(tab)

70
 a..Color G.Rate(tab):=> see 11.6.2
b.Table: => see 11.6.3
4) Graph button for any sheets (stand alone function)
SimpleE Worksheets: LineGraph
**** Default LineGraph ****
(1). Series by Row (default except on TIME/CASE Label):
a. One Series: Select one cell of the variable
b. Multiple Series: Select cells of the variable separately using multiple area
selection
c. Impulse Response (SimulationSheet Only): 1st-Select one cell to change,
nd
2 -Select two continuous columns to trace, 3.for more traces one by one separate
selection of cells(rows).

(2). Series by Column (default on TIME/CASE Label):

a. One Series--Select one cell from the TIME/CASE labels
b. Multiple Series--Select cells from the TIME/CASE labels separately using
multiple area selection

All Sheets (Stand alone function)

**** LineGraph ****
(1). Series by Row:
Select X label-2 continuous colums (two cells) in the same row as one area
Next select data row(one cell or separate multiple selection)-from the same
column of the 1st selection
(2). Series by Column:
Select X label-2 continuous rows (two cells) in the same column as one area
Next select data column(one cell or separate multiple selection)-from the same
column of the 1st selection
(3).Correlogram: Select 3 continuous columns (Seires by Row Only)
-Auto correlation Function(ACF), Partial Auto Correlation Function
-Partial Auto Correlation Function(PACF)
-95% Confidence Interval (CI)
-Liung Box Statistics

Example: Correlogram
This graph is useful for time series analysis. Select 3 continuous columns (Seires by
Row Only) of a variable row, and click button. Autocorrelation Function,
Partial Autocorrelation Function, and Ljung-Box Statistic will be calculated and
graphically displayed.

Autocorrelation Function, Partial Autocorrelation Function, 95% confidence interval,

and the Ljung-Box Statistic are available with a graph.

71
 Fig. 12.6 Correlogram

**** XYGraph with Point Lable ****

(1). Series by Row:
Select row of point label-continuous columns of 3 or more three cells in the
same row as one area
Next select data row(2 or more separate cells of multiple selection)-from the
same column of the 1st selection

- IF 1st selection area includes more than 3 cells, slection except header
represent one block-blocks continue cyclically

(2). Series by Column:

Select column of point label-3 continuous rows of three or more cells in the
same column as one area
Next select data column(2 or more separate cells of multiple selection)-from
the same column of the 1st selection

- IF 1st selection area includes more than 3 cells, slection except header
represent one block-blocks continue cyclically

(3). Data by tables:

a. Series label on top row: Select 3rows x 2columns or 2rows x 3 columns from
the top-left of the two or more tables in the same sheet-block by each column
b. Series label on left column: Select 2rows x 3columns or 2rows x 3 columns
from the top-left of the two or more tables in the same sheet-block by each row

(4). Point Label Options:

a. default: Maximum limit 250 all points-top row or left column as label
b. select font bold: No max limit
c. select font Italic: for the 1st point of each block
d. select font bold and Italic (data by table only): for all points-top row & left
column as label

(5). axis options

a. select font Italic for the first cell of x and/or y: log-log axis
(6). line connection between points
a. select font underline for the first cell of point label

72
5) Information button
a. Any selection of one area: information of Count, Minimum, Maximum, Average,
Ave.Deviation, G.Rate%(Compound), G.Rate%(Instantaneous) is calculated and
showed. (ex. Fig12.6)

Fig. 12.7

b. Any selection of two area(each area has to have same number of rows and
columns): information of regression statistics of coefficients, t-values, R—square
and F-value for types of linear, semi-log and log-log. (Fig. 12.11)

Example: Using and for the numeric data in a sheet

This example assumes the data as follows:

Fig. 12.8

After selecting the cells as follows, click the button.

Fig. 12.9

A correlation graph as follows appears for “DataX” and “DataY” using “Label” as
the label. For details, see “10.3 : Graph.”

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 Fig. 12.10

After selecting the cells as follows, click the button.

Fig. 12.11

The calculated correlation coefficient and regression as shown below is displayed

for the selected numeric data. For details, see “10.5 : Information.”

Fig. 12.12

The alignment of the selected numeric data can be either vertical or horizontal in
order to use the button.

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75
13 Key terms and abbreviation in SEE.

Regression Coefficients
The regression coefficient measures the relationship between dependent and
independent variables. The coefficient of the constant or intercept predicts the level
at which all of the other independent variables are zero. The other coefficients are
interpreted as the magnitude of the relation, with which the dependent variable is
explained by the corresponding independent variable.

Standard Error: SDV

Standard error or standard deviation is a measure of the statistical reliability of the
regression coefficient—the larger the standard error, the larger the chance of error in
the estimated coefficient. According to the theory of statistics, there is
approximately a 66% chance that the true regression coefficient lies within one
standard error of the estimated coefficient, and a 95% chance that it lies within two
times of the standard error.

t-Statistics
t-Statistics is a measure of statistical significance of the estimated value of the
coefficient. This is used to measure the significance of a coefficient. It is
calculated as the ratio of the coefficient to its standard error. If the t-statistic exceeds
one in magnitude, it is about 66% likely that the true value of the coefficient is not
zero, and if the t-statistic exceeds two in magnitude, it is at least 95% likely that the
coefficient is not zero.

R-Square: R
R-Square is a measure of the fitness of the regression model estimation values and the
observed values of the dependent variable. R-Square is one if the regression fits
perfectly, and zero if it fits no better than the simple mean of the dependent variable.
R-Square is the fraction of the variance of the dependent variable explained by the
independent variables. It can be negative if the regression does not have an intercept
or constant, or if two-stage least squares is used.

Adjusted R-Square: AR
Adjusted R-Square is a adjustment of R-Square, so that the smaller number of sample
or degree of freedom (DF) can be penalized. It is less than R-Square (provided there
is more than one independent variable) and can be negative.

Residual Sum of Square: RSS

This is the sum of squares of residuals. The method of least square minimizes this
number.

F-Statistic: F
This is a test of the hypothesis that all of the coefficients in a regression are zero
(except the intercept or constant). If the F-statistic exceeds a critical level, it implies
statistically that at least one of the coefficients is probably non-zero. For example, if
there are two independent variables (two degrees of freedom for numerator) and 30
observations (30 degrees of freedom for denominator), an F-statistic above 3.32
indicates that the probability of one or more of the three coefficients being non-zero is
at least 95%.

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Actual (Historical) Values
These are the values of the dependent variable used in a regression, from the original
data.

Model (Simulation) Values

These are the predicted values from a regression computed by applying the regression
coefficients to the independent variables.

Residuals
These are the differences between the actual and model values of the dependent
variable. They give an indication of the likely errors that the regression would make
in a forecasting application.

Collinearity or Multicollinearity: XX(correlation among Xs)

Collinearity means a correlation among the independent variables in a regression.
Although regression provides the best possible results in the presence of collinearity,
it does not mean that the results are reliable, because it violates the regression
assumption that the independent variables are not correlated with each other. In case
of collinearity, a reduction of independent variables could improve the model.
Usually, a special test for collinearity is not essential. High correlation among
independent variables and abnormal values of the coefficients indicate collinearity.

Log Transformation: $DL, $SL

Often time series variables tend to have greater fluctuations when the values become
bigger. This is a violation of the regression assumption called heteroscedasticity.
One measure to reduce this impact is a logarithmic transformation, either to base e
(LN function in Excel) or base 10 (LOG function in Excel). The log transformation
often makes variation more constant across the series. $DL and $SL option are
available in Simple E2 for convenience.

Serial Correlation (Autocorrelation): $GS

In time-series regression, the residuals are often correlated with their past (their own
lagged values). The correlation is a violation of an assumption of regression theory
that the residuals are not correlated with each other. Simple E2 uses grid search
method ($GS) to find out the correlation coefficient.

Durbin-Watson Test: DW
The Durbin-Watson test is used to test so-called autocorrelation whether a variable is
correlated to its past or not. The assumption of randomness requires that the
residuals are uncorrelated with its own lagged variables. If no correlation, then the
expected value of the Durbin-Watson statistic becomes 2. Values less than 2 indicate
positive autocorrelation, a common characteristics in time-series data. Values
greater than 2 indicate negative autocorrelation.

Durbin-h Test: Dh
The Durbin-Watson statistic tests only for the first order autocorrelation. It cannot
be used when there is no intercept or when there are lagged dependent variables in the
regressor. In the case of a one-period lagged dependent variable in regressor, the
Durbin-h test is one of the option to test the serial correlation.

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Akaike Information Criterion: AC
The Akaike Information Criterion is an indicator to check whether the addition of an
independent variable contributes to the model. The addition of an independent
variable usually improve the R-square, but AIC penalizes the additional independent
variables. For example, this can be used to choose the length of a lag distribution, by
searching the specification with the lowest value of the AIC.

Jarque-Bera test of normality: JB

The Jarque-Bera statistic is an indicator of the degree of normality of the distribution.
The statistic follows chi-square distribution with 2 degrees of freedom.

Partial test and Final test: P%, F%

Both tests are for evaluating the reliability of the “Model Equation.” For details
on evaluation formula, see “9.4 Model Fitness: Error of Model Estimate from Actual.”

“Partial test” evaluates each model performance separately. It assigns actual data to
the independent variable of model equation to calculate the estimate data for the
dependent variable and compares the result with the actual data. Therefore, the
Partial test evaluates the reliability of each model equation separately.

“Final test” evaluates all related models as a whole. It calculates in simulation

sheet using model estimated equations rather than actual for all internalized
independent variables. Therefore, the Final test evaluates reliability including the
accumulated errors of all equations.

Although the Final test is more reliable than partial test, it occasionally cannot
complete if simultaneous equations cannot converge.

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Index

Options and Functions in Main Menu

1) MAIN..................................................................................................................... 43
Main Flow
Check/Solve/Simulate
Check & Solve/Solve & Simulate
ALL THROUGH
Link Single Flow [=ab]
Sheet Names
Data Sheet(Source#0)/Model Sheet/Simulation
Additional Data Sheets
Data Source#1/Data Source#2/Data Source#3
Create SEE. Worksheet
Add to New Workbook/Add to Active Workbook

2) Graph...................................................................................................................... 45
Code/Row/Sheet
Summary
Multiple Graph
Copy Graph
ZOOM+/ZOOM-

3) Correlation............................................................................................................. 47
Select Variables (From Data or Simulation sheet, Max.255)
C.Matrix/P.C/V.C
Copy
ZOOM+/ZOOM-

4) Sensitivity............................................................................................................... 48
Sensitivity
Sensitivity Trace
Trace
Sensitivity / (Reverse Trace) ........................................... 48
Cell to Change
Simultaneous
Cell to Trace
Result Output
Changes in Change Cells
Change in Percent %
Interval (second)
Change Amount/Reference Cells of Change Amount(s)
New Value/Reference Cells of New Value(s)

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 Trace
(Sensitivity)/Reverse Trace ............................................. 50
Cell to Change
Cell to Trace
Result Output
Target Values in Cells to Trace
Changes in Change Cells
Change in Percent %
Change Amount/Reference Cells of Change Amount(s)
New Value/Reference Cells of New Value(s)

Monte Carlo Simulation .............................................................................. 51

Start
Cells to Trace
Suppress Screen Updating
No. of Trial
Nofilter/Between 0=< and =<1
Output Range (TopLeftCell)
Output Option
Histogram/Percentile 95%,50%,5%/Trace Results
Option:Cells of Random Change
MEAN/STD
MEAN/Range +/-

5) Preference .............................................................................................................. 54
DataSheet ..................................................................................................... 54
Warn Multiple Entry of Same Code Name (～)
Allow Missing Value
Copy Simulation Results
Clear
External Variable Link with Simulation Sheet
Copy Values to Simulation (No Link)
Link Directory (No Ex. Variable in Simulation)

ModelSheet .................................................................................................. 55
Input Message (Model Summary & Equation)
Copy Comments From Datasheet
Structure Search Nest Limit (5-100)

SimulationSheet ........................................................................................... 56
Input Message (Summary)
Clear Names & Cell Formats
Fill Missing Value by Model
Default Projection
Linear Trend/Growth Trend
Constant Adjustment
Default Format
FORMULA/VALUE

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 Information .................................................................................................. 57
Option
Correlation Coefficients
Regression

Regression Filter
No. of Fixed Regression (in order of selection)
No. of Explanatory Variables to be Changed
Constant
Output Sheet Name
FILTER

Shared .......................................................................................................... 59
Insert Linefeed for Summary
Correlogram Graph
Partial/Final Test Alert
ScreenUpdating

6) Utility ..................................................................................................................... 61
Add & Delete ............................................................................................... 62
SEE. Worksheets
Add New Sheet
Data/Model/Simulation
Copy & Paste Current Selection
Delete & Initialize
Del/Del All/Initialize

Names
Delete Names
Selected Code/Activesheet/Activebook

Color G. Rate ............................................................................................... 63

Data/Simulation Sheets
Set With Simulation Flow
Selected Range
CLEAR
RECALL
SCALE

Table ............................................................................................................ 64
Link: Series to Table
Automatic Creation from Series/(Use Code Table)
Series Sheet
Series Area (Time-Top)
Select a cell of Row Title
Select a cell of Column Title
Table Sheet
TopLeft Cell of Table
Cell of Case No./ID

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Series Top Row as Case/Time Label

(Automatic Creation from Series)/Use Code Table

Series Sheet
Series Area (Code-Left/Time-Top)
Table Sheet
Code Table
Cell of Case No./ID
Series Top Row as Case/Time Label

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