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INSIGHTS TO SUBJECT MATTER __________________________________________ 6


EMPIRICAL FINDINGS IN THE LITERATURE SO FAR ___________________________ 9
MOTIVATION FOR SUBSEQUENT ANALYSIS ________________________________ 15

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GOALS, TARGETS AND TOOLS OF MONETARY POLICY IN CEE COUNTRIES ________ 18


EVOLUTION OF EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES IN CEEC’S ______________________ 21
MONETARY SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS DURING TRANSITION ____________________ 22
SHORT SUMMARY ___________________________________________________ 25

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VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION AND IDENTIFICATION PROBLEM ___________________ 26


MODEL DESCRIPTION________________________________________________ 31

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c 11 0 0
( p1 × p1 ) ( p1 ×1) ( p1 × p2 )

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c 31 c 32 c 33
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64
ipt ipt −1 ipt − q
iptEA
cpit = B1 cpit −1 + ... + Bq cpit − q + Φ EA + ut D8C 46
rt
rt d rt d−1 rt d− q

(
(* !" . (
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& (# # *&" *&" &% !" )*(
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# >(
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ipt ipt −1 ipt − q
cpit cpit −1 cpit − q iptEA
= B1 + ... + Bq + Φ EA + ut D8?5
rt m rt m−1 rt m− q rt
d d d
rt rt −1 rt − q

ipt ipt −1 ipt − q


cpit cpit −1 cpit − q iptEA
= B1 + ... + Bq + Φ EA + ut D8??
ert ert −1 ert − q rt
rt d rt d−1 rt d− q

ipt ipt −1 ipt − q


cpit cpit −1 cpit − q iptEA
= B + ... + B + Φ + ut D8?4
rt d 1
rt d−1 q
rt d− q rt EA
xpt xpt −1 xpt − q

ipt ipt −1 ipt − q


cpit cpit −1 cpit − q iptEA
= B + ... + B + Φ + ut D8?6
rt d 1
rt d−1 q
rt d− q rt EA
mpt mpt −1 mpt − q

ipt ipt −1 ipt − q


cpit cpit −1 cpit − q iptEA
= B1 + ... + Bq + Φ EA + ut D8?D
rt d rt d−1 rt d− q rt
nxt nxt −1 nxt − q

46 " " &% ) !" -*&# & " $ # *$ "% )* # $'(- *) ";'*# *&#8

66
ipt ipt −1 ipt − q
cpit cpit −1 cpit − q iptEA
= B + ... + B + Φ + ut D8?@
rt d 1
rt d−1 q
rt d− q rt EA
xvt xvt −1 xvt − q

ipt ipt −1 ipt − q


cpit cpit −1 cpit − q iptEA
= B1 + ... + Bq + Φ EA + ut D8?B
rt d rt d−1 rt d− q rt
mvt mvt −1 mvt − q

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CPI 1?8C6S6 168@CS4 ? 1684CS6 1@8BCS5 ?
ER 1?8CCS? 1B86DS5 ? 168DAS?4 1B86BS5 ?
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NX 168@5SD4 1?6@86CSE ? 148BDS? 1?6?84ESE ?
XP 1?8A4S6 14D84?S4 ? 1?845S6 1468DCS4 ?
MP 1?8C?S5 1??86?S5 ? 1?8C6S5 1??8@5S5 ?
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