Chart Title

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

-200

Column M Column N Column O

 DISCHARGE CALCULATION BY GUMBEL METHOD

Peak Flow (cumecs)

1000

1000
950
900
Year Order ( i ) Extreme P T q (ln(-ln (q))) 800 900
Cumecs
1991 1 950 0.11 9.00 0.89 2.14 700
1998 2 862 0.22 4.50 0.78 1.38 600 850
1990 3 774 0.33 3.00 0.67 0.90
2000 4 766 0.44 2.25 0.56 0.53 500
800

Discharge ( Cumecs )
2001 5 752 0.56 1.80 0.44 0.21 400
1997 6 690 0.67 1.50 0.33 -0.09
1987 7 656 0.78 1.29 0.22 -0.41 300 750
1989 8 621 0.89 1.13 0.11 -0.79 200
700
N= 8 100
Xbar = 758.88 0
650
σn (S) = 108.12

600
i
P =
N+1
550
1
T =
P
500
0
q = 1-P 0.1 0.11 950
0.2 0.22 862
Where 0.3 0.33 774
P = Probability of exceedance 0.4 0.44 766
i = Order no. 0.5 0.56 752
N = Total no. of observation 0.6 0.67 690
T = Return Period 0.7 0.78 656
q = Probability of subsidance 0.8 0.89 621
0.9
1
T25 = 25
1
P =
T
1 950
P =
25 862
= 0.04 774
 q = 1-P 766
= 0.96 752
690
Y25 = (-ln(-ln (q))) 656
= 3.20 621
T100 = 100
1
P =
T
1
P =
100
= 0.01
q = 1-P
= 0.99 100 =
0.02 =
Y100 = (ln(-ln (q)))
= 4.60
0.1 =
0.02 =

Year Order ( i ) Extreme

Cumecs
1976 1 950
1983 2 862
1992 3 774
1997 4 766
2001 5 752
1997 6 690
1987 7 656
1989 8 621

Chart Title
1200

1000

800

600
800

600

400

200

0
1 2 3 4 5

-200

Col umn M Col umn N Co

 GUMBEL METHOD
Gumbel
Peak Flow (cumecs)

1000

1000
950 8; 950
900

800 900

700

600 850 7; 862

500
800
Discharge ( Cumecs )

400
6; 774
4; 752
300 750 5; 766

200 98 90 50 10 5 2 1 .5 .2 .1
700 3; 690
100

0
650
1; 621 2; 656 Exceedance Probability (%)

600

550

500
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
0.889 621 2.14
0.778 656 1.38 Probability of subsidance (q)
0.667 690 0.90
Di s charge q Di s charge
0.556 752 0.53
Li near (Di s charge) Li nea r (Di s cha rge) q
0.444 766 0.21
0.333 774 -0.09
0.222 862 -0.41
0.111 950 -0.79

2.14 6
1.38 5
0.90 4
 0.53 3
0.21 2
-0.09 1
-0.41 0
-0.79 -1

10 pl
0.002

10
2

1000

950

900
Chart Title
850

800
Discharge ( Cumecs )

750

700 3; 690

650
1; 621 2; 656

600
 700

Di
650
1; 621 2; 656

600

550

500
0 0.2

4 5 6 7 8

Col umn N Col umn O

 Problem 5.1: Piscataquis River
Peak Flow, in cfs
8; 950 20000

18000

16000

14000

12000

10000
5 .2 .1
8000

6000

4000

2000
99.99 99.9 99.8 99 98 95 90 50 10 5 2 1
Exceedence Probability (%)

0.8 1 1.2

Di s charge
q
 GUMBEL METHOD

8; 950

7; 862

6; 774
4; 752
5; 766

3; 690

1; 621 2; 656
1; 621 2; 656

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2

Probability of Execeed

Di s cha rge q Di s charge

Li near (Di s charge) Li near (Di s charge) q
aquis River

10 5 2 1 .5 .2 .1 .05 .01
bability (%)
1 1.2
 Gumbel Equation

XT = Xbar + k σn-1
YT - Ybar n
k =
Sn

YT =

p T K z X
0.11 9.00 2.13891 2.13891 0
0.22 4.50 1.38105 1.38105 0
0.33 3.00 0.90272 0.90272 0
0.44 2.25 0.53139 0.53139 0
0.56 1.8 0.20957 0.20957 0
0.67 1.5 -0.09405 -0.09405 0
0.78 20 -0.40818 -0.40818 0
0.89 1.125 -0.78720 -0.78720 0
 Gumbel

Q Rank pp z Q
609 1 0.01695 4.06900 609 extreme value
547 2 0.03390 3.36720 547 paper Gumbel

Peak Flow (CFS)

493 3 0.05085 2.95295 493 prob z axis
493 4 0.06780 2.65635 493 99.9 -1.93264 0
431 5 0.08475 2.42415 431 99.9 -1.93264 25000
414 6 0.10169 2.23263 414
388 7 0.11864 2.06914 388 99.8 -1.82690 0
383 8 0.13559 1.92612 383 99.8 -1.82690 25000
377 9 0.15254 1.79870 377
374 10 0.16949 1.68353 374 99.5 -1.66739 0
366 11 0.18644 1.57825 366 99.5 -1.66739 25000
329 12 0.20339 1.48109 329
315 13 0.22034 1.39072 315 99 -1.52718 0
295 14 0.23729 1.30610 295 99 -1.52718 25000
295 15 0.25424 1.22640 295
286 16 0.27119 1.15095 286 98 -1.36405 0
273 17 0.28814 1.07920 273 98 -1.36405 25000
271 18 0.30508 1.01070 271 0
264 19 0.32203 0.94506 264 95 -1.09719 0 98 90 50 10 5 2 1 .5 .2 .1
Exceedance Probability (%)
251 20 0.33898 0.88195 251 95 -1.09719 25000
246 21 0.35593 0.82109 246
244 22 0.37288 0.76224 244 90 -0.83403 0
237 23 0.38983 0.70518 237 90 -0.83403 25000
230 24 0.40678 0.64972 230
228 25 0.42373 0.59570 228 80 -0.47588 0
228 26 0.44068 0.54295 228 80 -0.47588 25000
228 27 0.45763 0.49135 228
228 28 0.47458 0.44076 228 70 -0.18563 0
221 29 0.49153 0.39106 221 70 -0.18563 25000
215 30 0.50847 0.34215 215
210 31 0.52542 0.29392 210 60 0.08742 0
209 32 0.54237 0.24628 209 60 0.08742 25000
204 33 0.55932 0.19913 204
204 34 0.57627 0.15238 204 50 0.36651 0
202 35 0.59322 0.10593 202 50 0.36651 25000
198 36 0.61017 0.05970 198
196 37 0.62712 0.01360 196 40 0.67173 0
195 38 0.64407 -0.03248 195 40 0.67173 25000
191 39 0.66102 -0.07863 191
180 40 0.67797 -0.12496 180 30 1.03093 0
177 41 0.69492 -0.17157 177 30 1.03093 25000
176 42 0.71186 -0.21859 176
173 43 0.72881 -0.26616 173 20 1.49994 0
169 44 0.74576 -0.31444 169 20 1.49994 25000
158 45 0.76271 -0.36359 158
150 46 0.77966 -0.41382 150 10 2.25037 0
149 47 0.79661 -0.46539 149 10 2.25037 25000
146 48 0.81356 -0.51858 146
146 49 0.83051 -0.57377 146 5 2.97020 0
134 50 0.84746 -0.63144 134 5 2.97020 25000
133 51 0.86441 -0.69219 133
130 52 0.88136 -0.75689 130 2 3.90194 0
116 53 0.89831 -0.82671 116 2 3.90194 25000
114 54 0.91525 -0.90345 114
114 55 0.93220 -0.99000 114 1 4.60015 0
88 56 0.94915 -1.09156 88 1 4.60015 25000
85 57 0.96610 -1.21917 85
68 58 0.98305 -1.40549 68 0.5 5.29581 0
N= 58 0.5 5.29581 25000
Xbar= 244.33
S= 117.02 0.2 6.21361 0
0.2 6.21361 25000
= -LN(-LN(1-p))
M= 191.6626 location statistic 0.1 6.90726 0
B= 91.23838 scale statistic 0.1 6.90726 25000
= M + KB

p T K z X
0.99 1.01 -1.52718 -1.52718 52
0.90 1.11 -0.83403 -0.83403 116
0.70 1.43 -0.18563 -0.18563 175
0.50 2 0.36651 0.36651 225
0.20 5 1.49994 1.49994 329
0.10 10 2.25037 2.25037 397
0.05 20 2.97020 2.97020 463
0.02 50 3.90194 3.90194 548
0.01 100 4.60015 4.60015 611
0.005 200 5.29581 5.29581 675
0.002 500 6.21361 6.21361 759

Page 15
 Dist

Problem 5-1: Piscataquis River near Dover-Foxcroft, Maine

log-normal
Weibull Peak Flow normal paper paper
Rank Probability (ft3/s) X z axis prob z axis
1 0.0169 21,500 4.332438 2.12128 2000 99.99 -3.7190 1000
2 0.0339 19,300 4.285557 1.82636 20000 99.99 -3.7190 100000
3 0.0508 17,400 4.240549 1.63669 Problem 5.1: Piscataquis River
4 0.0678 17,400 4.240549 1.49240 2000 99.9 -3.0902 1000
5 0.0847 15,200 4.181844 1.37384 20000 99.9 -3.0902 100000

Peak Flow, in cfs

6 0.1017 14,600 4.164353 1.27195 20,000
7 0.1186 13,700 4.136721 1.18179 2000 99.8 -2.8782 1000
8 0.1356 13,500 4.130334 1.10033 20000 99.8 -2.8782 100000
18,000
9 0.1525 13,300 4.123852 1.02559
10 0.1695 13,200 4.120574 0.95618 2000 99 -2.3263 1000
11 0.1864 12,900 4.110590 0.89109 20000 99 -2.3263 100000 16,000
12 0.2034 11,600 4.064458 0.82957
13 0.2203 11,100 4.045323 0.77105 2000 98 -2.0537 1000 14,000
14 0.2373 10,400 4.017033 0.71505 20000 98 -2.0537 100000
15 0.2542 10,400 4.017033 0.66121
12,000
16 0.2712 10,100 4.004321 0.60923 2000 95 -1.6449 1000
17 0.2881 9,640 3.984077 0.55884 20000 95 -1.6449 100000
18 0.3051 9,560 3.980458 0.50983 10,000
19 0.3220 9,310 3.968950 0.46202 2000 90 -1.2816 1000
20 0.3390 8,850 3.946943 0.41524 20000 90 -1.2816 100000 8,000
21 0.3559 8,690 3.939020 0.36935
22 0.3729 8,600 3.934498 0.32423 2000 80 -0.8416 1000
6,000
23 0.3898 8,350 3.921686 0.27976 20000 80 -0.8416 100000
24 0.4068 8,110 3.909021 0.23584
25 0.4237 8,040 3.905256 0.19236 2000 70 -0.5244 1000 4,000
26 0.4407 8,040 3.905256 0.14925 20000 70 -0.5244 100000
27 0.4576 8,040 3.905256 0.10641 2,000
99.99 99.9 99.8 99 98 95 90 50 10 5 2 1 .5 .2 .1 .05 .01
28 0.4746 8,040 3.905256 0.06377 2000 60 -0.2533 1000
29 0.4915 7,780 3.890980 0.02124 20000 60 -0.2533 100000 Exceedence Probability (%)
30 0.5085 7,600 3.880814 -0.02124
31 0.5254 7,420 3.870404 -0.06377 2000 50 0.0000 1000
32 0.5424 7,380 3.868056 -0.10641 20000 50 0.0000 100000
33 0.5593 7,190 3.856729 -0.14925
34 0.5763 7,190 3.856729 -0.19236 2000 40 0.2533 1000
Problem 5.1
35 0.5932 7,130 3.853090 -0.23584 20000 40 0.2533 100000
36 0.6102 6,970 3.843233 -0.27976
Peak Flow, in cfs

37 0.6271 6,930 3.840733 -0.32423 2000 30 0.5244 1000 100,000

38 0.6441 6,870 3.836957 -0.36935 20000 30 0.5244 100000
39 0.6610 6,750 3.829304 -0.41524
40 0.6780 6,350 3.802774 -0.46202 2000 20 0.8416 1000
41 0.6949 6,240 3.795185 -0.50983 20000 20 0.8416 100000
42 0.7119 6,200 3.792392 -0.55884
43 0.7288 6,100 3.785330 -0.60923 2000 10 1.2816 1000
44 0.7458 5,960 3.775246 -0.66121 20000 10 1.2816 100000
45 0.7627 5,590 3.747412 -0.71505
46 0.7797 5,300 3.724276 -0.77105 2000 5 1.6449 1000
47 0.7966 5,250 3.720159 -0.82957 20000 5 1.6449 100000 10,000
48 0.8136 5,150 3.711807 -0.89109
49 0.8305 5,140 3.710963 -0.95618 2000 2 2.0537 1000
50 0.8475 4,710 3.673021 -1.02559 20000 2 2.0537 100000
51 0.8644 4,680 3.670246 -1.10033
52 0.8814 4,570 3.659916 -1.18179 2000 1 2.3263 1000
53 0.8983 4,110 3.613842 -1.27195 20000 1 2.3263 100000
54 0.9153 4,010 3.603144 -1.37384
55 0.9322 4,010 3.603144 -1.49240 2000 0.5 2.5758 1000
56 0.9492 3,100 3.491362 -1.63669 20000 0.5 2.5758 100000
57 0.9661 2,990 3.475671 -1.82636
58 0.9831 2,410 3.382017 -2.12128 2000 0.2 2.8782 1000 1,000
99.99 99.9 99.8 99 98 95 90 50 10 5 2 1 .5 .2 .1 .05 .01
Mean= 8,620 3.889416 20000 0.2 2.8782 100000 Exceedance Probability (%)
SD= 4128 0.203080
2000 0.1 3.0902 1000
20000 0.1 3.0902 100000
Normal Distribution Exceedence Normal Distribution = Xbar + zS
Probability z 2000 0.05 3.2905 1000 T p z Q
(Xbar-SD)= 4,491 0.8413 -0.99982 20000 0.05 3.2905 100000 2 0.5 0.000 8,620
(Xbar+SD)= 12,748 0.1587 0.99982 5 0.2 0.842 12,094
2000 0.01 3.7190 1000 10 0.1 1.282 13,911
20000 0.01 3.7190 100000 20 0.05 1.645 15,410
eqn 5.2 X= Xbar+KS 50 0.02 2.054 17,098
100 0.01 2.326 18,224
eqn 5.3 K=(X-Xbar)/S 200 0.005 2.576 19,254
500 0.002 2.878 20,502
from Table 2.2 z=2.327; for a probability of 0.01

Thus, X= 8620+2.327(4128)=18,226 ft3/s

For a discharge of 16,000 ft3/s, the corresponding z value is

z=(X-Xbar)/s = (16,000-8,620)/4,128=1,788
From Table 2-2, p=0.0377 or T=26.53 (~4%)

PROBLEM 5-2 (log-normal distribution)

= Xbar + zS
Log-normal Distribution Log-normal Distribution
Exceedence T p z X Q
log value anti-log Probability z 2 0.5 0.00000 3.88942 7,752
(Xbar-SD)= 3.686337 4,857 0.8413 -0.99982 5 0.2 0.84162 4.06033 11,490
(Xbar+SD)= 4.092496 12,374 0.1587 0.99982 10 0.1 1.28155 4.14967 14,115
20 0.05 1.64485 4.22345 16,728
50 0.02 2.05375 4.30649 20,253
100 0.01 2.32635 4.36185 23,006
200 0.005 2.57583 4.41251 25,853
500 0.002 2.87816 4.47391 29,779

Page 16
 barCht

6/14/1900 0

Peak Flow, in cfs

6/14/1901 0 Piscataquis River
6/14/1902 9
6/14/1903 5140 40000
5/12/1904 7420 35000
4/15/1905 2410
30000
4/17/1906 10400
25000
4/24/1907 8040
11/7/1907 10100 20000

9/29/1909 17400 15000

4/1/1910 4010 10000
4/29/1911 4110 5000
4/23/1912 7380
0
4/1/1913 7130
### 6930
5/1/1915 6100
5/18/1916 6200
6/18/1917 14600
### 5960
3/29/1919 4710
4/14/1920 8650
### 7600
6/30/1922 8350
4/29/1923 21500
5/2/1924 8690
4/1/1925 4570
### 8040
### 7780
### 10400
5/3/1929 9600
4/8/1930 8040
6/10/1931 6870
9/17/1932 12900
4/19/1933 5960
4/21/1934 8040
4/22/1935 5590
3/20/1936 19300
4/29/1937 6750
### 8110
12/7/1938 6240
4/13/1940 13700
4/17/1941 4010
4/26/1942 6970
5/4/1943 4680
11/9/1943 13500
4/28/1945 7190
4/27/1946 5300
10/1/1946 11600
5/18/1948 9640
1/7/1949 3100
4/21/1950 11300
### 17400
11/4/1951 9310
3/28/1953 15200
9/12/1954 13200
4/16/1955 9560
4/30/1956 5150
4/22/1957 2990
4/23/1958 13300
6/19/1959 5250
### 7190
4/25/1961 4920
4/9/1962 5420
11/1/1962 6810
11/9/1963 14000
4/17/1965 5250
3/26/1966 5050
11/4/1966 22800
4/25/1968 8990
5/11/1969 7460
### 12800
5/4/1971 13400
5/8/1972 6950
4/28/1973 10500
### 19200
12/9/1974 6830
4/2/1976 10200
### 7190
1/10/1978 10800
4/28/1979 19300
4/11/1980 5960
9/24/1981 10300
### 9220
4/18/1983 18800
6/1/1984 12700
4/17/1985 3290
1/28/1986 8860
4/1/1987 37300
3/28/1988 7010
4/7/1989 7990
3/19/1990 7140
### 8970
3/29/1992 7470
4/12/1993 12100
4/17/1994 13100
1/17/1995 4020
1/28/1996 11200
12/2/1996 14300
1/28/1998 0
1/28/1999 0
1/28/2000 0

Page 17
 histo

Peak Flow Normal

(ft3/s) X Bin Bin Frequency
21500 4.332438 X-4S = -7,894 -7,894 0 Histogram
19300 4.285557 -5,829 -5,829 0 (Arithmetic)
17400 4.240549 X-3S = -3,765 -3,765 0
17400 4.240549 -1,701 -1,701 0 20

Frequency
15200 4.181844 X-2S = 363 363 0
14600 4.164353 2,427 2,427 1 18
13700 4.136721 X-S = 4,491 4,491 5 16
13500 4.130334 6,556 6,556 13
13300 4.123852 X= 8,620 8,620 18 14
13200 4.120574 10,684 10,684 8 12
12900 4.11059 X+S = 12,748 12,748 2
11600 4.064458 14,812 14,812 6 10
11100 4.045323 X+2S = 16,877 16,877 1
8
10400 4.017033 18,941 18,941 2
10400 4.017033 X+3S = 21,005 21,005 1 6
10100 4.004321 23,069 23,069 1
4
9640 3.984077 X+4S = 25,133 25,133 0
9560 3.980458 More 0 2
9310 3.96895
0
8850 3.946943 X-4S X-3S X-2S X-S X X+S X+2S X+3S X+4S
8690 3.93902
8600 3.934498 Bin
8350 3.921686
8110 3.909021
8040 3.905256
8040 3.905256
8040 3.905256 Log-normal
8040 3.905256 Bin Bin Frequency
7780 3.89098 X-4S = 3.077098 3.077098 0 Histogram
7600 3.880814 3.178637 3.178637 0 (log)
7420 3.870404 X-3S = 3.280177 3.280177 0
7380 3.868056 3.381717 3.381717 0 14
7190 3.856729 X-2S = 3.483257 3.483257 2
Frequency

7190 3.856729 3.584797 3.584797 1

12
7130 3.85309 X-S = 3.686337 3.686337 6
6970 3.843233 3.787876 3.787876 7
6930 3.840733 X = 3.889416 3.889416 13
10
6870 3.836957 3.990956 3.990956 13
6750 3.829304 X+S = 4.092496 4.092496 5 8
6350 3.802774 4.194036 4.194036 7
6240 3.795185 X+2S = 4.295576 4.295576 3 6
6200 3.792392 4.397115 4.397115 1
6100 3.78533 X+3S = 4.498655 4.498655 0 4
5960 3.775246 4.600195 4.600195 0
5590 3.747412 X+4S = 4.701735 4.701735 0
2
5300 3.724276 More 0
5250 3.720159
5150 3.711807
0
X-4S X-3S X-2S X-S X X+S X+2S X+3S X+4S
5140 3.710963
4710 3.673021 Bin
4680 3.670246
4570 3.659916
4110 3.613842
4010 3.603144
4010 3.603144
3100 3.491362
2990 3.475671
2410 3.382017
Mean= 8,620 3.889416
SD= 4128 0.203080
S= 1.14 -0.0658

Page 18
 LP3

Peak Flow
(ft3/s) X Rank pp z Q log-normal
21,500 4.33244 1 0.01695 2.12128 21,500 paper
LP3
19,300 4.28556 2 0.03390 1.82636 19,300 prob z axis

Peak Flow (cfs)

17,400 4.24055 3 0.05085 1.63669 17,400 99.9 -3.0902 1000
100,000
17,400 4.24055 4 0.06780 1.49240 17,400 99.9 -3.0902 100000
15,200 4.18184 5 0.08475 1.37384 15,200
14,600 4.16435 6 0.10169 1.27195 14,600 99.8 -2.8782 1000
13,700 4.13672 7 0.11864 1.18179 13,700 99.8 -2.8782 100000
13,500 4.13033 8 0.13559 1.10033 13,500
13,300 4.12385 9 0.15254 1.02559 13,300 99.5 -2.5758 1000
13,200 4.12057 10 0.16949 0.95618 13,200 99.5 -2.5758 100000
12,900 4.11059 11 0.18644 0.89109 12,900
11,600 4.06446 12 0.20339 0.82957 11,600 99 -2.3263 1000 10,000
11,100 4.04532 13 0.22034 0.77105 11,100 99 -2.3263 100000
10,400 4.01703 14 0.23729 0.71505 10,400
10,400 4.01703 15 0.25424 0.66121 10,400 98 -2.0537 1000
10,100 4.00432 16 0.27119 0.60923 10,100 98 -2.0537 100000
9,640 3.98408 17 0.28814 0.55884 9,640
9,560 3.98046 18 0.30508 0.50983 9,560 95 -1.6449 1000
9,310 3.96895 19 0.32203 0.46202 9,310 95 -1.6449 100000
8,850 3.94694 20 0.33898 0.41524 8,850 1,000
99.8 99.5 99 98 95 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 5 2 1 .5 .2
8,690 3.93902 21 0.35593 0.36935 8,690 90 -1.2816 1000
8,600 3.93450 22 0.37288 0.32423 8,600 90 -1.2816 100000
Exceedance Probability (%)
8,350 3.92169 23 0.38983 0.27976 8,350
8,110 3.90902 24 0.40678 0.23584 8,110 80 -0.8416 1000
8,040 3.90526 25 0.42373 0.19236 8,040 80 -0.8416 100000
8,040 3.90526 26 0.44068 0.14925 8,040
8,040 3.90526 27 0.45763 0.10641 8,040 70 -0.5244 1000
8,040 3.90526 28 0.47458 0.06377 8,040 70 -0.5244 100000
7,780 3.89098 29 0.49153 0.02124 7,780
7,600 3.88081 30 0.50847 -0.02124 7,600 60 -0.2533 1000
7,420 3.87040 31 0.52542 -0.06377 7,420 60 -0.2533 100000
7,380 3.86806 32 0.54237 -0.10641 7,380
7,190 3.85673 33 0.55932 -0.14925 7,190 50 0.0000 1000
7,190 3.85673 34 0.57627 -0.19236 7,190 50 0.0000 100000
7,130 3.85309 35 0.59322 -0.23584 7,130
6,970 3.84323 36 0.61017 -0.27976 6,970 40 0.2533 1000
6,930 3.84073 37 0.62712 -0.32423 6,930 40 0.2533 100000
6,870 3.83696 38 0.64407 -0.36935 6,870
6,750 3.82930 39 0.66102 -0.41524 6,750 30 0.5244 1000
6,350 3.80277 40 0.67797 -0.46202 6,350 30 0.5244 100000
6,240 3.79518 41 0.69492 -0.50983 6,240
6,200 3.79239 42 0.71186 -0.55884 6,200 20 0.8416 1000
6,100 3.78533 43 0.72881 -0.60923 6,100 20 0.8416 100000
5,960 3.77525 44 0.74576 -0.66121 5,960
5,590 3.74741 45 0.76271 -0.71505 5,590 10 1.2816 1000
5,300 3.72428 46 0.77966 -0.77105 5,300 10 1.2816 100000
5,250 3.72016 47 0.79661 -0.82957 5,250
5,150 3.71181 48 0.81356 -0.89109 5,150 5 1.6449 1000
5,140 3.71096 49 0.83051 -0.95618 5,140 5 1.6449 100000
4,710 3.67302 50 0.84746 -1.02559 4,710
4,680 3.67025 51 0.86441 -1.10033 4,680 2 2.0537 1000
4,570 3.65992 52 0.88136 -1.18179 4,570 2 2.0537 100000
4,110 3.61384 53 0.89831 -1.27195 4,110
4,010 3.60314 54 0.91525 -1.37384 4,010 1 2.3263 1000
4,010 3.60314 55 0.93220 -1.49240 4,010 1 2.3263 100000
3,100 3.49136 56 0.94915 -1.63669 3,100
2,990 3.47567 57 0.96610 -1.82636 2,990 0.5 2.5758 1000
2,410 3.38202 58 0.98305 -2.12128 2,410 0.5 2.5758 100000

Xbar= 3.89 0.2 2.8782 1000

S= 0.20 0.2 2.8782 100000
G= -0.066 THUS, G=-0.1
0.1 3.0902 1000
0.1 3.0902 100000
p T K Ybar+KSy z Q
0.99 1.01 -2.25258 3.4320 -2.32635 2,704 0.05 3.2905 1000
0.90 1.11 -1.27037 3.6314 -1.28155 4,280 0.05 3.2905 100000
0.70 1.43 -0.53624 3.7805 -0.52440 6,033
0.50 2 -0.01662 3.8860 0.00000 7,692 0.01 3.7190 1000
0.20 5 0.83639 4.0593 0.84162 11,462 0.01 3.7190 100000
0.10 10 1.29178 4.1518 1.28155 14,182
0.05 20 1.67279 4.2291 1.64485 16,948
0.02 50 2.10697 4.3173 2.05375 20,763
0.01 100 2.39961 4.3767 2.32635 23,808
0.005 200 2.66965 4.4316 2.57583 27,013
0.002 500 2.99978 4.4986 2.87816 31,522

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 Log-Gumbel

Q Y Rank pp z Q
21,500 4.33244 1 0.01695 4.06900 21,500 extreme value
19,300 4.28556 2 0.03390 3.36720 19,300 paper Log-Gumbel

Peak Flow (CFS)

17,400 4.24055 3 0.05085 2.95295 17,400 prob z axis
17,400 4.24055 4 0.06780 2.65635 17,400 99.9 -1.93264 1000
100,000
15,200 4.18184 5 0.08475 2.42415 15,200 99.9 -1.93264 100000
14,600 4.16435 6 0.10169 2.23263 14,600
13,700 4.13672 7 0.11864 2.06914 13,700 99.8 -1.82690 1000
13,500 4.13033 8 0.13559 1.92612 13,500 99.8 -1.82690 100000
13,300 4.12385 9 0.15254 1.79870 13,300
13,200 4.12057 10 0.16949 1.68353 13,200 99.5 -1.66739 1000
12,900 4.11059 11 0.18644 1.57825 12,900 99.5 -1.66739 100000
10,000
11,600 4.06446 12 0.20339 1.48109 11,600
11,100 4.04532 13 0.22034 1.39072 11,100 99 -1.52718 1000
10,400 4.01703 14 0.23729 1.30610 10,400 99 -1.52718 100000
10,400 4.01703 15 0.25424 1.22640 10,400
10,100 4.00432 16 0.27119 1.15095 10,100 98 -1.36405 1000
9,640 3.98408 17 0.28814 1.07920 9,640 98 -1.36405 100000
9,560 3.98046 18 0.30508 1.01070 9,560 1,000
9,310 3.96895 19 0.32203 0.94506 9,310 95 -1.09719 1000 98 90 50 10 5 2 1 .5 .2 .1
Exceedance Probability (%)
8,850 3.94694 20 0.33898 0.88195 8,850 95 -1.09719 100000
8,690 3.93902 21 0.35593 0.82109 8,690
8,600 3.93450 22 0.37288 0.76224 8,600 90 -0.83403 1000
8,350 3.92169 23 0.38983 0.70518 8,350 90 -0.83403 100000
8,110 3.90902 24 0.40678 0.64972 8,110
8,040 3.90526 25 0.42373 0.59570 8,040 80 -0.47588 1000 NOTE: For information on the Gumbel distribution,
8,040 3.90526 26 0.44068 0.54295 8,040 80 -0.47588 100000 see Bulletin # 17B, pages 14-4 through 14-5
8,040 3.90526 27 0.45763 0.49135 8,040
8,040 3.90526 28 0.47458 0.44076 8,040 70 -0.18563 1000
7,780 3.89098 29 0.49153 0.39106 7,780 70 -0.18563 100000
7,600 3.88081 30 0.50847 0.34215 7,600
7,420 3.87040 31 0.52542 0.29392 7,420 60 0.08742 1000
7,380 3.86806 32 0.54237 0.24628 7,380 60 0.08742 100000
7,190 3.85673 33 0.55932 0.19913 7,190
7,190 3.85673 34 0.57627 0.15238 7,190 50 0.36651 1000
7,130 3.85309 35 0.59322 0.10593 7,130 50 0.36651 100000
6,970 3.84323 36 0.61017 0.05970 6,970
6,930 3.84073 37 0.62712 0.01360 6,930 40 0.67173 1000
6,870 3.83696 38 0.64407 -0.03248 6,870 40 0.67173 100000
6,750 3.82930 39 0.66102 -0.07863 6,750
6,350 3.80277 40 0.67797 -0.12496 6,350 30 1.03093 1000
6,240 3.79518 41 0.69492 -0.17157 6,240 30 1.03093 100000
6,200 3.79239 42 0.71186 -0.21859 6,200
6,100 3.78533 43 0.72881 -0.26616 6,100 20 1.49994 1000
5,960 3.77525 44 0.74576 -0.31444 5,960 20 1.49994 100000
5,590 3.74741 45 0.76271 -0.36359 5,590
5,300 3.72428 46 0.77966 -0.41382 5,300 10 2.25037 1000
5,250 3.72016 47 0.79661 -0.46539 5,250 10 2.25037 100000
5,150 3.71181 48 0.81356 -0.51858 5,150
5,140 3.71096 49 0.83051 -0.57377 5,140 5 2.97020 1000
4,710 3.67302 50 0.84746 -0.63144 4,710 5 2.97020 100000
4,680 3.67025 51 0.86441 -0.69219 4,680
4,570 3.65992 52 0.88136 -0.75689 4,570 2 3.90194 1000
4,110 3.61384 53 0.89831 -0.82671 4,110 2 3.90194 100000
4,010 3.60314 54 0.91525 -0.90345 4,010
4,010 3.60314 55 0.93220 -0.99000 4,010 1 4.60015 1000
3,100 3.49136 56 0.94915 -1.09156 3,100 1 4.60015 100000
2,990 3.47567 57 0.96610 -1.21917 2,990
2,410 3.38202 58 0.98305 -1.40549 2,410 0.5 5.29581 1000
N= 58 0.5 5.29581 100000
Xbar= 3.89
S= 0.20 0.2 6.21361 1000
0.2 6.21361 100000
= -LN(-LN(1-p))
M= 3.79802 location statistic 0.1 6.90726 1000
B= 0.158341 scale statistic 0.1 6.90726 100000
= M + KB

p T K z X Q
0.99 1.01 -1.52718 -1.52718 3.55620 3,599
0.90 1.11 -0.83403 -0.83403 3.66596 4,634
0.70 1.43 -0.18563 -0.18563 3.76863 5,870
0.50 2 0.36651 0.36651 3.85605 7,179
0.20 5 1.49994 1.49994 4.03552 10,852
0.10 10 2.25037 2.25037 4.15435 14,267
0.05 20 2.97020 2.97020 4.26832 18,549
0.02 50 3.90194 3.90194 4.41586 26,053
0.01 100 4.60015 4.60015 4.52641 33,606
0.005 200 5.29581 5.29581 4.63657 43,308
0.002 500 6.21361 6.21361 4.78189 60,519

Page 20
 Summary

Summary

T Normal Log-n LP3 Gumbel Log-Gumbel

2 8,620 7,752 7,692 7,942 7,179
5 12,094 11,490 11,462 11,590 10,852
10 13,911 14,115 14,182 14,006 14,267
20 15,410 16,728 16,948 16,323 18,549
50 17,098 20,253 20,763 19,322 26,053
100 18,224 23,006 23,808 21,569 33,606
200 19,254 25,853 27,013 23,808 43,308
500 20,502 29,779 31,522 26,763 60,519

Page 21