2 February 2015

Macroeconomic & Strategic

Analysis

Monthly Report
UniCredit Ţiriac Bank

Economics, FI/FX & Commodities Research

2 February 2015

“ A new thinking model

based on systemic approach
”
Systemic thinking is based on the idea that parts of one system are influencing each other and every part has its own
contribution in generating a problem. A reaction to just one part of the system could create other disequilibria and prob-
lems. Changing the perspective on how to see a specific problem easily creates solutions. The nice thing is that this theo-
ry applies in every system – families, organisations, banking systems, economic systems and so on. And it starts from
the smallest part of the system – the human being.

Economic environment in short: Lower financing needs of the government, a balanced current account, important
long-term capital inflows expected to cover the deleveraging effects, are offering strong support for the RON in a volatile
international market context. The ECB’s QE programme and the context of inflation below the target interval during 2015
offers additional room of manoeuvre for the NBR to cut the key rate to 2%. We expect the economic growth to be around
2.8% in 2014, and to slow down to 2.5%yoy in 2015; yet consumption will remain the main growth driver.

Challenging years lie ahead of
banks...
....under stricter regulation and
increasing competition from
outside of the banking sector.
But under systemic thinking
the difficulties are seen as part
of the overall system…
....with every part of the
system having a contribution
in generating the problem.
Reaction and overreaction to
one part of the system could
create other disequilibria.
While rebuilding the trust
should be one core issue for
banks …
…changing the perspective
creates solutions with the
slightest effort.
UniCredit Tiriac Research
2 februarie 2015 Macroeconomic & Strategic Analysis
Romania Monthly Report
A new thinking model based on systemic approach
A new design for the financial architecture at global level has become the leitmotif of post-crisis
debates. The discussions are taking place around the ideas of a paradigm change, a “new banking
model” for Europe and not only. One thing is certain though – ahead of banking entities lie more
challenging years, during which banks need to reposition on stronger fundamentals, to rebuild the
confidence that significantly eroded starting 2007-2008.
In this context, the banks are confronting with stricter regulation and increasing competition from
non-banking entities - peer-to-peer lending companies, online shops and ITC companies in par-
ticular for payments, in a fast moving technological process.
Although there are several areas of discussion about the “new banking model”, it might be im-
portant to see this issue via a “new thinking model” grounded on a systemic approach.
The systemic approach is based on the theory according to which parts of one system are influ-
encing each other, making the system viable or non-viable. In fact it is a method for problem solv-
ing, viewing difficulties as part of the overall system, rather than reacting to a specific part, out-
come or event and potentially contributing to the further development of unplanned consequences.
Transposing this idea into practice it might be better to acknowledge that everybody - authorities,
financial institutions, companies and individuals/consumers had a contribution to the current situa-
tion. Even staying aside from a certain situation can be a choice that could induce an important in-
fluence in the end. And I will not make an analysis on that because I believe that everybody can
find something to think of. Moreover, it is not generating any value to find out who carries more
blame for this. Reviewing the past is for learning lessons in order to move forward in a better way.
For example the outside competition that the banking system is confronting with (mentioned
above) could be seen as the result of economic agents’ needs that found more efficient counter-
parties– according to their perception. At the same time these new counterparties are less regulat-
ed or not regulated at all, leading to increasing risks for the entire system.
To conclude based on this systemic theory, we can say that the authorities decisions which are
putting too much pressure on one part of the system could create other disequilibria outside their
direct influence power. Moreover, these decisions should not be taken in order to compensate past
poor decisions/regulations. It is important to see the entire picture, with all the implications in-
volved, as much as possible.
The banks on the other hand should fear less about outside competition and tough regulation and
start to build a new business model based on the “rebuilding trust” principle, integrating the posi-
tive influence of competition.
Another example which is a hot topic today is the CHF issue that re-emerged when the Swiss Na-
tional Bank decided to lift the cap of 1.20 CHF/EUR (implemented in September 2011). I am won-
dering if many have thought that this would last forever although the Swiss economy was persis-
tently generating current account surpluses. And if not, why some people are waiting the inevitable
to take some measures to solve an old issue? In my opinion this could be more costly in both rela-
tionship and financials.
If only those with little influence in the system or none at all are willing to change the perspective, it
looks like a big effort or even impossible to find solutions. If the interaction between system parts
improves, the constructive results are coming with the slightest effort ever imagined and in a
shorter time.
This theory applies in every system – families, organisations, banking systems, economic systems
and so on. And it starts from the smallest part of the system – the human being.
Catalina Molnar, Chief Economist
page 2
 2 februarie 2015 Macroeconomic & Strategic Analysis
Romania Monthly Report

2015 starts in a challenging way for the global economy and markets

With external turbulences The risks that are lingering into the markets are linked to the Greek issues, Russia-Ukraine con-
rising… flict, the EUR-CHF flexibility, the rising contrast between the Fed and the ECB’s monetary policies.
…and Greek issues again in the Greece is now having its first most explicit anti-austerity government, after the far-left wining elec-
spot light, the Romanian
banking sector is not imune,
tion party succeed to form a governing coalition. Greece is expected to try to find an agreement
but has a safety net. with Greece’s creditors or will face a EUR 6-12bn funding gap in 2015. The Greek banks are still
depending on the ECB liquidity and the ECB support is conditioned by the performance of the cur-
rent bailout programme that is ending in February. The Greek exit scenario is resurfacing, yet for
the moment the probability of this to occur is rather low. We cannot ignore that if the situation dete-
riorates, a negative impact will be encountered also in Romania, via the banking sector channel
and the sentiment channel. We know that the banks with Greek capital are Romanian companies,
well capitalised, liquid, but still dependent on foreign financing (in 2013 the loan to depo ratio was
more than 130% for three of the four banks, when the banking system was already close to
100%). In the worst case scenario we could see mergers and/or acquisitions. Another safety net
could be provided by the Bridge Bank framework put in place by the Romanian authorities and the
Resolution Single Mechanism under the European Banking Union.
The CHF issue most probably Regarding the CHF issue, apparently the NBR and the Romanian Banks’ Association agreed
will be solved based on a
some standards based on a burden-sharing principle to give support for the negotiations between
burden-sharing principle.
the banks and the clients. Fortunately, Romania’s exposure to this issue was not as high as in
other countries, the CHF denominated loans representing only 4.5% of total loans (RON 9.5bn).
Yet this exposure is concentrated in a few banks.
The long tenor Romanian While the Fed is still expected to start to increase the interest rate in mid-2015, the ECB surprised
bonds are still attractive, given
the ECB’s QE programme...
the market with its bold QE programme (purchases of more than EUR 1.1bn by September 2016,
more in government bonds). While the monetary policy contrast between FED and ECB had a
contribution to the emerging markets outflows during the past months, we haven’t seen any signifi-
cant change in the foreign holdings of Romanian bonds (the share in total RON-denominated bond
holdings remained around 20%). The QE programme on one hand could redirect more capital
from the Eurozone into CEE markets, but also from Europe to other continents. The spread be-
tween 5Y and 1Y RON denominated bonds continued to decline in Romania, meaning that the in-
...and the inclusion of another vestors were still attracted by the long tenor Romanian bonds. A new Romanian bond will be in-
bond in the JP Morgan indices. cluded in the JP Morgan indices starting from February 2015, increasing Romania’s weight to
2.50% from 2.32% previously. The bond included is the 4.75% Feb 2025 ROMGB, which will likely
boost demand for long-term Romanian bonds.
The government financing Either or not Romania will succeed to accomplish the fiscal target set this year of 1.83% of GDP
needs declined in 2015...
(cash basis, including 0.4% EU project co-financing), the government financing needs are signifi-
cantly lower than in 2014 (9% of GDP, vs. 11.5% of GDP). In 2015 Romania aims to sell up to
RON 28.1bn in T-bonds with maturities up to 15 years and up to RON 12bn in T-bills on the

High fiscal reserves and lower financing needs of the government RON yields remain aligned with those of other CCE majors
50
RO 3Y Yield (mid)
Thousands

6
40 HU 3Y Yield (mid)
4
30 3.5 PL 3Y Yield (mid)
2
20
0
10
-2 2.7
0
-4 -10
-6 -20
Net New Issuance (domestic RON)
2.0
-8 Monthly Budget Balance -30
Min Fin Reserves - cumulated (rhs)
-10 -40
Mar-13

Mar-14
Mar-11

Mar-12
Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14
May-11

May-12

May-13

May-14
Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14
Nov-11

Nov-14
Nov-12

Nov-13
Sep-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-14

1.2
May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug -14 Sep -14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15

Data Source: Thomson Reuters, Ministry of Finance, NBR, UniCredit Tiriac Bank Research

UniCredit Tiriac Research page 3


…but the issuance distribution In the short term, the debt management is also influenced by the international context and for ex-
during the year will be
influenced also by the
international context.
With QE in the eurozone and
Romanian inflation below the
target interval in 2015…
…NBR still has room for cutting We expect inflation to return towards 2% in 2016 as the oil price scenario involves a return to
further the key rate to 2%.
Balanced capital flows are
offering strong fundamentals
for the RON.
Very low inflation offers room for the NBR to cut the key rate to 2%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
Nov-11
Mar-10
Jan-11
UniCredit Tiriac Research
2 februarie 2015 Macroeconomic & Strategic Analysis
Romania Monthly Report
domestic market, an indicative volume of EUR 2.5-3bn on foreign markets and to draw about EUR
1.45bn from the World Bank development loan.
ample in February the government has planned to issue papers totalling RON 5bn (including the
supplementary sessions of noncompetitive offers representing around 10% of total issuance). The
average maturity of the intended issuance is 61.5months, as 74% of it is planned in T-bonds. The
amount is higher than throughout 2014 (RON 3.3bn per month, on average), although there are no
bond expiries during the month. One possibility is that the MinFin wants to take advantage of the
very low yields and high demand for bonds visible in January, in an attempt to pre-fund in light of
the lingering external tensions.
The QE in Europe is creating also a stronger case for continuing the monetary easing process in
Romania. Moreover the domestic inflationary environment is more than favourable for this pro-
cess, as inflation continued to surprise on the downside amid falling oil prices. After 0.8%yoy infla-
tion at the end of 2014, we have also revised downward the inflation forecast for 2015 and 2016.
For this year we expect inflation to stay below the inflation target interval (1.5%-3.5%), touching
the lower band in December. The average inflation in 2015 is expected to be 0.5%, as the monthly
distribution shows much lower levels in the first part of the year and a stronger reversal in the last
two months of the year (base effect from the fast decline in the oil prices in 4Q14).
higher levels, while the energy/gas prices will start to increase most likely after mid-2015 and to
continue the liberalisation programme that was put on halt for the moment. Therefore we consider
that NBR has room to cut further the rates, from the current level of 2.5% to 2.0% (with the next
cut of 25bps being expected on 4 th February). At the same time, monetary easing will continue
throughout MRR reduction – down to 4%-6% for RON and to 8% for FC (from 10% and 14% re-
spectively).
Moreover the NBR said that they will not use the exchange rate as an instrument to relax the
monetary conditions as other countries did (i.e. Czech Rep), meaning they will not deliberately
leave the currency to depreciate that could affect the financial stability (given the significant weight
of the foreign currency loans in total outstanding credit, 56% in November 2014). In addition, the
economic fundamentals sustaining the RON. The current account deficit almost reached 0% of
GDP in 2014, while the EU funds and the FDIs were more than enough to cover the capital out-
flows that occurred in 2014 (IMF and EC payments of about EUR 4.5bn, deleveraging in the bank-
ing sector EUR 2.7bn). This way, Romania’s FX reserves remained relatively unchanged at EUR
32.2bn (covering by 1.8 times the short term external debt and more than 6 months of imports of
goods and services).
Under the expectations of (i) balanced current account, (ii) slowdown in deleveraging, (iii) EUR
1.5bn lower payments to IMF and EC versus 2014 and (iv) at least the same inflows from FDI and
EU funds as in 2014 (2015 is the last year to receive the EU funds from the 2007-2013
Balanced capital flows offers support for the currency
Monetary policy rate EUR bn, 12M cum.
Inflation T arget 9.0
Extended Basic Balance
Inflation Rate
6.0 Change of banks' foreign liabilities
Net
3.0
0.0
-3.0
-6.0
-9.0
-12.0
Nov-16
Sep-12
Mar-15
Jul-13
May-14
Jan-16
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-11
May-09
May-10
Sep-10
May-11
Sep-11
Sep-12
May-13
May-14
Sep-14
May-08
Sep-08
Sep-09
May-12
Sep-13
Data Source: NBR, NIS, UniCredit Tiriac Bank Research
page 4

Higher public spending at the
end of 2014 has induced
distorsions in markets and in
banks’ balance sheets…
…and possibly resulted in higher High frequency data for the last quarter of 2014 suggests a good performance of retail sales
consumtion, which along with
improved contribution from
investments…
...could generate a 2.8%
economic growth in 2014,
despite a slowdown in industry.
Previous RON’s depreciation was not justified by the capital flows
4.5500
4.5000
4.4500
4.4000
4.3500
UniCredit Tiriac Research
2 februarie 2015 Macroeconomic & Strategic Analysis
Romania Monthly Report
programme) we consider that the EUR-RON has higher chances to stay more time in the interval
4.40-4.50 during 2015 in a volatile international market context. It was no surprise to see the
EURRON returning from levels above 4.50, into the 4.40-4.45 range after the QE announcement.
The liquidity in the money market remained abundant during December and January, following the
large government spending at the end of 2014. About RON 12bn were spent in just one month,
with the budget deficit reaching 1.85% of GDP in 2014, less than the target settled at 2.2% of
GDP. Part of the December spending was generated by teachers’ executory titles for overdue sal-
ary rights. And this effect translated into a record monthly increase of the household banking de-
posits in December. With an adjustment of -3.1%yoy in credit stock and an increase of 7.5%yoy
(FX-adjusted), the loan-to-depo ratio touched 91% at the end of 2014. On the other hand, the
heavy provisioning in light of the BS clean-up likely led to losses for the banking system estimated
at RON 4bn before tax for 2014 (according to NBR officials).
(+6.2%yoy in October-November up from +5.5%yoy in 3Q), with consumption supported by the lax
monetary conditions, higher government spending in 4Q, the timidly improving lending activity and
a persistence of lower than anticipated inflation. At the same time, industry is estimated to have
had a positive contribution to growth in 4Q, although at lower levels than in 3Q (+2%yoy in Octo-
ber-November down from +4.2%yoy in 3Q) triggered by weaker activity in the eurozone. However,
the positive aspect is that the yearly dynamic of manufacturing has so far remained in positive ter-
ritory throughout 2014, despite decelerating sharply to +1.1%yoy in November from the 10.7%
cumulated yearly growth in 1H2014. We might see for the first time in 2014 a positive contribution
to growth from construction sector in 4Q, sustained by the acceleration of public investments in Q4
(+22.5%yoy, vs. -7%yoy in 3Q). The ITC services most probably continued to be a strong contribu-
tor to growth in 4Q2014.
Overall, we expect the economic growth to be around 2.8% in 2014. For 2015, we expect GDP
growth to decelerate to 2.5%yoy, with consumption remaining the main growth driver, as suggest-
ed by the improved consumer sentiment, in an environment of persistent high real wage growth
amid low inflation and significant increase in the minimum wage. At the same time, new RON lend-
ing is accelerating, providing for a positive credit impulse to domestic demand. Very important to
monitor the unit labour cost dynamics (which was on a rising path in 2014), as a persistent in-
crease could affect the exports performance.
Government spending stimulated the households’ deposits
11 payn
1.25
Resident Non-gov Cre dit - YoY FX-adj.
2.1 Resident Non-gov Deposit - YoY FX-adj.
EUR-RON 9 1.20
1.9 Loan/D epo ratio (rhs.)
5Y-1Y spread - RS (pp) 7
1.7 1.15
1.5 5
1.10
1.3 3
1.1 1.05
1
0.9
1.00
0.7 -1
0.5 -3 0.95
0.3
-5 0.90
ian.-12 mai.-12 sep.-12 ian.-13 mai.-13 sep.-13 ian.-14 mai.-14 sep.-14
Data Source: NBR, UniCredit Tiriac Bank Research
page 5
 2 februarie 2015 Macroeconomic & Strategic Analysis
Romania Monthly Report

MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F
GDP (EUR bn) 126.8 133.3 133.9 144.7 151.3 159.3 168.9
Population (mn) 20.3 20.2 20.1 20.0 19.9 19.9 19.8
GDP per capita (EUR) 6249 6601 6663 7226 7586 8012 8521
Real economy yoy (%) *
GDP -0.8 1.1 0.6 3.5 2.8 2.5 3.0
Household Consumption 1.0 1.1 1.7 0.5 3.7 3.5 3.3
Fixed Investment -2.4 2.9 0.1 -3.2 -4.2 2.5 3.0
Collective Public Consumption -12.3 -2.7 -5.6 -1.2 10.1 1.8 2.2
Exports 15.2 11.9 1.0 21.4 6.1 3.7 3.7
Imports 12.6 10.2 -1.8 8.5 4.9 3.7 3.8
Monthly wage, nominal (EUR) 460 479 479 507 529 548 574
Unemployment rate (%); ILO avg 7.0 7.1 6.9 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.7
Fiscal accounts (% of GDP)
Budget balance ESA95 -6.7 -5.6 -2.9 -2.3 -1.6 -2.1 -1.6
Primary balance -5.3 -4.1 -1.1 -0.6 -0.1 -0.6 -0.2
Public debt 29.9 34.2 37.3 37.8 39.7 37.7 37.4
External accounts
Current account balance (EUR bn) -5.8 -6.2 -6.1 -1.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.7
Current account balance/GDP (%) -4.6 -4.6 -4.5 -0.8 -0.1 0.0 -0.4
Basic balance/GDP (%) -2.8 -3.3 -2.7 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.1
Net FDI (EUR bn) 2.2 1.8 2.4 2.9 2.3 2.3 2.5
Net FDI (% of GDP) 1.8 1.3 1.8 2.0 1.5 1.4 1.5
Gross foreign debt (EUR bn) 93.6 99.9 100.9 98.1 95.3 92.3 92.2
Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) 73.8 74.9 75.3 67.8 63.0 57.9 54.6
Fx reserves (EUR bn) 32.4 33.2 31.2 32.5 32.2 32.3 32.3
Inflation/Monetary/FX
CPI (pavg) 6.1 5.8 3.3 4.0 1.1 0.5 1.9
CPI (eop) 8.0 3.1 5.0 1.6 0.8 1.5 2.0
Central bank inflation target 3.5 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
Central bank key rate (eop) 6.25 6.00 5.25 4.00 2.75 2.00 2.00
3M money market rate (eop) 6.25 6.30 6.04 2.44 1.70 1.55 1.80
RON/USD (eop) 3.20 3.34 3.36 3.26 3.65 3.83 3.71
RON/EUR (eop) 4.28 4.32 4.43 4.48 4.45 4.40 4.38
RON/USD (pavg) 3.18 3.05 3.47 3.33 3.36 3.82 3.72
RON/EUR (pavg) 4.21 4.24 4.46 4.42 4.44 4.42 4.39

Cătălina Molnar
Chief Economist
+40 (0)21 200 1376
Catalina.molnar@unicredit.ro

Anca Aron
Economist
+40 (0)21 200 1377
Anca.aron@unicredit.ro

UniCredit Tiriac Research page 6

 2 februarie 2015 Macroeconomic & Strategic Analysis
Romania Monthly Report

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ADDITIONAL REQUIRED DISCLOSURES UNDER THE LAWS AND REGULATIONS OF JURISDICTIONS INDICATED
Notice to Australian investors
This publication is intended for wholesale clients in Australia subject to the following:
UniCredit Bank AG and its branches do not hold an Australian Financial Services licence but are exempt from the requirement to hold a licence under the Act in respect of the financial
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and are not authorised to conduct a banking business in Australia.

UniCredit Tiriac Research page 7

 2 februarie 2015 Macroeconomic & Strategic Analysis
Romania Monthly Report

Notice to Austrian investors

This document does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any securities and neither this document
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This document is not for distribution to retail clients as defined in article 26, paragraph 1(e) of Regulation n. 16190 approved by CONSOB on October 29, 2007.
In the case of a short note, we invite the investors to read the related company report that can be found on UniCredit Research website www.research.unicreditgroup.eu.
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This document does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription for or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any securities and neither this document
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This document is intended solely for professional clients as defined in Art. 3 39b of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005.The publisher and distributor of the
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As far as we are aware, not all of the financial instruments referred to in this analysis have been registered under the federal law of the Russian Federation "On the Securities
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This communication is directed only at clients of UniCredit Bank, UniCredit Bank London, UniCredit Bank Milan, UniCredit Bank Vienna, UniCredit Romania, UniCredit Bulbank,
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markets and in the competitive environment, and other factors relating to the foregoing. All forward-looking statements contained in this report are qualified in their entirety by this
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UniCredit Tiriac Research page 8

 2 februarie 2015 Macroeconomic & Strategic Analysis
Romania Monthly Report

UniCredit Research*
Michael Baptista Dr. Ingo Heimig
Global Head of Research Head of Research Operations
+44 207 826-1328 +49 89 378-13952
michael.baptista@unicredit.eu ingo.heimig@unicreditgroup.de

Economics & FI/FX Research

Erik F. Nielsen, Global Chief Economist

+44 207 826 1765
erik.nielsen@unicredit.eu

Economics & Commodity Research EEMEA Economics & FI/FX Strategy Global FI Strategy
European Economics Gillian Edgeworth, Chief EEMEA Economist Michael Rottmann, Head, FI Strategy
+44 207 826-1772 +49 89 378-15121
Marco Valli, Chief Eurozone Economist
gillian.edgeworth@unicredit.eu michael.rottmann1@unicreditgroup.de
+39 02 8862-8688
marco.valli@unicredit.eu Artem Arkhipov, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis Dr. Luca Cazzulani, Deputy Head, FI Strategy
and Research, Russia +39 02 8862-0640
Dr. Andreas Rees, Chief German Economist
+7 495 258-7258 luca.cazzulani@unicredit.eu
+49 89 378-12576
artem.arkhipov@unicredit.ru
andreas.rees@unicreditgroup.de Chiara Cremonesi, FI Strategy
Anca Maria Aron, Economist, Romania +44 20 7826-1771
Stefan Bruckbauer, Chief Austrian Economist
+40 21 200-1377 chiara.cremonesi@unicredit.eu
+43 50505-41951
anca.aron@unicredit.ro
stefan.bruckbauer@unicreditgroup.at Elia Lattuga, FI Strategy
Dan Bucşa, Economist +39 02 8862-2027
Tullia Bucco, Economist
+44 207 826-7954 elia.lattuga@unicredit.eu
+39 02 8862-2079
dan.bucsa@unicredit.eu
tullia.bucco@unicredit.eu Kornelius Purps, FI Strategy
Hrvoje Dolenec, Chief Economist, Croatia +49 89 378-12753
Chiara Corsa, Economist
+385 1 6006 678 kornelius.purps@unicreditgroup.de
+39 02 8862-2209
hrvoje.dolenec@unicreditgroup.zaba.hr
chiara.corsa@unicredit.eu Herbert Stocker, Technical Analysis
Hans Holzhacker, Chief Economist, Kazakhstan +49 89 378-14305
Dr. Loredana Federico, Economist
+7 727 244-1463 herbert.stocker@unicreditgroup.de
+39 02 8862-3180
h.holzhacker@atfbank.kz
loredana.federico@unicredit.eu
Global FX Strategy
Ľubomír Koršňák, Chief Economist, Slovakia
Mauro Giorgio Marrano, Economist
+421 2 4950 2427 Dr. Vasileios Gkionakis, Global Head, FX Strategy
+39 02 8862-8222
lubomir.korsnak@unicreditgroup.sk +44 207 826-7951
mauro.giorgiomarrano@unicredit.eu
vasileios.gkionakis@unicredit.eu
Catalina Molnar, Chief Economist, Romania
Alexander Koch, CFA
+40 21 200-1376 Armin Mekelburg, FX Strategy
+49 89 378-13013
catalina.molnar@unicredit.ro +49 89 378-14307
alexander.koch1@unicreditgroup.de
armin.mekelburg@unicreditgroup.de
Marcin Mrowiec, Chief Economist, Poland
Chiara Silvestre, Economist
+48 22 656-0678 Roberto Mialich, FX Strategy
chiara.silvestre@unicredit.eu
marcin.mrowiec@pekao.com.pl +39 02 8862-0658
US Economics roberto.mialich@unicredit.eu
Carlos Ortiz, Economist, EEMEA
Dr. Harm Bandholz, CFA, Chief US Economist +44 207 826-12288
+1 212 672-5957 carlos.ortiz@unicredit.eu
harm.bandholz@unicredit.eu
China Economics Kristofor Pavlov, Chief Economist, Bulgaria
+359 2 9269-390
Nikolaus Keis, Economist kristofor.pavlov@unicreditgroup.bg
+49 89 378-12560
nikolaus.keis@unicreditgroup.de Pavel Sobisek, Chief Economist, Czech Republic
+420 955 960-716
Commodity Research pavel.sobisek@unicreditgroup.cz
Kathrin Goretzki, Economist
Dmitry Veselov, Ph.D., Economist, EEMEA
+49 89 378-15368
kathrin.goretzki@unicreditgroup.de +44 207 826-1808
dmitry.veselov@unicredit.eu
Jochen Hitzfeld, Economist
+49 89 378-18709
jochen.hitzfeld@unicreditgroup.de

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*UniCredit Research is the joint research department of UniCredit Bank AG (UniCredit Bank), UniCredit Bank AG London Branch (UniCredit Bank London), UniCredit Bank AG Milan Branch (UniCredit Bank Milan), UniCredit
Bank AG Vienna Branch (UniCredit Bank Vienna), UniCredit CAIB Securities Romania (UniCredit Romania), UniCredit Bulbank, Zagrebačka banka, UniCredit Bank Czech Republic (UniCredit Bank Czechia), Bank Pekao,
ZAO UniCredit Bank Russia (UniCredit Russia), UniCredit Bank Slovakia a.s. (UniCredit Slovakia), UniCredit Tiriac Bank (UniCredit Tiriac) and ATF Bank.

UniCredit Tiriac Research page 9