Vous êtes sur la page 1sur 118

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION
INTRODUCTION OF THE STUDY

Investment is putting money into something with the expectation of profit. More
specifically, investment is the commitment of money or capital to the purchase of
financial instruments or other assets so as to gain profitable returns in the form of interest,
dividend capital gain sends, or appreciation of the value of the instrument (capital gains).
An investment involves the choice by an individual or an organization, such as a pension
fund, after some analysis or thought, to place or lend money in a vehicle, instrument or
asset, such as property, commodity, stock, bond, financial derivatives (e.g. futures or
options), or the foreign asset denominated in foreign currency, that has certain level of
risk and provides the possibility capital gainsay of generating returns over a period of
time. Investment comes with the risk of the loss of the principal sum. The investment that
has not been thoroughly analysed can be highly risky with respect to the investment
owner because the possibility of losing money is not within the owner's control. The
difference between speculation and investment can be subtle. It depends on the
investment owner's mind whether the purpose is for lending the resource to someone else
for economic purpose or not.

In the view of fundamental analysis, stock valuation based on


fundamentals aims to give an estimate of their intrinsic value of the stock, based on
predictions of the future cash flows and profitability of the business. Fundamental
analysis may be replaced or augmented by market criteria. An approach to invest
analysis, technical analysis is radically different from fundamental analysis. Technical
analysis don’t evaluate a large number of fundamental factors relating to the company the
industry and the economy, instead they analyse market generated data like price and
volume to determine the future direction of price movement. Here I conduct fundamental
and technical analysis of four scrip from Banking industry listed at NSE with special
reference to Hedge equities, Ernakulum and the project was completed in around in 2
month started from May to June, 2013.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 2


STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

Here to understand the fundamental and technical analysis of different equity. To


study the stock market trends of various stocks, evaluate the economy, industry &
companies in the banking industry using fundamental and to know how the entry and exit
point work with technical analysis.

SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

The study is entitled to evaluate the performance of four scrip in banking sector wise and
to find the optimal scrip in the industry. The study is conducted also to find out the
direction and magnitude of banking industry. The analysis of the past performance will
help to predict the future behavior of the scrip. This study may help the investors to take
decisions regarding investments. The study also helps the trends in economic market.

Stock selection criteria is a strategy in which an analyst or investor uses a systematic


form of analysis to determine if a particular stock constitutes a good investment which
should be added to their portfolio. There are many different ways to value stocks. The
key is to take each approach into account while formulating an overall opinion of the
stock. The objective of stock selection criteria is maximizing total return on investment
for the target holding period, subject to limiting risk to acceptable level, and maintaining
a targeted degree of portfolio diversification.

OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

Primary objective

 To examine the performance of four selected banks listed in NSE using


fundamental and technical analysis.
 Find out THE BEST among these four banks and rank them in order of buy.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 3


Secondary objective

 To understand the current economic scenario.


 To have a general awareness about banking industry.
 To match the financial theory with practice.
 To explore the financial position of the four scrip banks.
 To understand the share practice movement with the help of technical analysis.
 To understand the fundamental analysis.

SCOPE OF THE STUDY

The main purpose of this study is to conduct Fundamental and Technical Analysis. In my
project the scope is limited to the four securities from the Banking sector. But this will
provide an overall picture of the economy and the banking industry. The scrip I have
selected are:

 AXIS BANK
 HDFC BANK
 YES BANK
 ICICI BANK

The global economy, Indian economy, Banking Industry and the financial analysis of the
above scrip are analyzed.

METHODOLOGY OF THE STUDY

A research methodology is a way to systematically solve the research problem. It may be


understood as a science of study how research is done. This portion includes study of
various steps that are generally adopted by me as a research in studying this “research
problem” along with my logic.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 4


a)Research Design

A research design is a plan that specifies the source and types of information
relevant to the research problem. The research design used here is the descriptive
and analytical research design. Descriptive studies aims at portraying accurately
the characteristics of a particular group pr situation, and the analytical approach
helped me to conduct fundamental and technical analysis.

b)Data Collection Method

Secondary source includes as follows: Vital information relevant to study has been
collected from different articles and journals, books, magazines, fact sheets.

c)Sample Design

i) The population frame: The population frame consists of the whole banks in the
industry.

ii) Sampling method: Convenience sampling was used to select four banks.

iii) Sample method: 4 banks from private sector were selected.

PERIOD OF STUDY

The period of study on FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ON


BANKING SCRIPS in HEDGE EQUTIES about 45 days, during May & June

CHAPTER SCHEME

Chapter 1: Introduction,

Introduction of the study, Statement of the Problem, Significance of the study,


Objectives of the study, Scope of the study, Hypothesis, Methodology of the study,
Period of study, Chapter Scheme, Assumptions of the study, Limitations of the study

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 5


Chapter 2: Review of the related Literature

Industry Profile, Company Profile, Theoretical Background of the study, Recent


Studies on the Topic, Review on Research Methodology.

Chapter3: Research Methodology

Research Design, Study Approach, Techniques of Data Collection, Sampling


Techniques, and Statistical Tools for Data Analysis (Minimum 2-3 statistical tools in
addition to Percentage Analysis

Chapter 4: Data Analysis and Interpretation

Objective- wise Data Analysis, Hypothesis Testing (Appropriate tables, charts,


calculations etc. should be added)

Chapter 5: Summary and Conclusion

Summary of the study, Observations/ Finding, Suggestions/ Recommendations, Scope


for Further Study, Conclusion

ASSUMPTION OF THE STUDY

 The secondary sources of data are true.


 For the last 5 years, economic details, industry details of banking industry and
various financial ratios of the bank such ICICI BANK, AXIS BANK, YES
BANK, HDFC BANK are collected in a proper way.

LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

 Only secondary data is used for analysis.


 The prediction made using fundamental and technical analysis may not always
be correct.
 Past performance may or may not be sustained on future.
 The share price of the company change with time. The tool used in this study is
not effective for predicting those changes with respect to time.
 Fundamental and technical analysis is a vast topic and only some of its aspects
have been included in this study. These aspects have to be continually
evaluated to improve the accuracy of the prediction.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 6


CHAPTER 2
REVIEW OF THE RELATED LITERATURE

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 7


INDUSTRTY PROFILE

The Indian Economy -- A Brief History


The second most populated country in the world (1.11 billion), India currently has the
fourth largest economy in PPP terms, and is closing in at the heels of the third largest economy,
Japan. At independence from the British in 1947, India inherited one of the world’s poorest
economies (the manufacturing sector accounted for only onetenth of the national product), but
also one with arguably the best formal financial markets in the developing world, with four
functioning stock exchanges (the oldest one predating the
Tokyo Stock Exchange) and clearly defined rules governing listing, trading and settlements; a
well-developed equity culture if only among the urban rich; a banking system with clear lending
norms and recovery procedures; and better corporate laws than most other erstwhile colonies.
The 1956 Indian Companies Act, as well as other corporate laws and laws protecting the
investors’ rights, were built on this foundation.
After independence, a decades-long turn towards socialism put in place a regime and
culture of licensing, protection and widespread red-tape breeding corruption. In 1990-91 India
faced a severe balance of payments crisis ushering in an era of reforms comprising deregulation,
liberalization of the external sector and partial privatization of some of the state sector
enterprises. For about three decades after independence, India grew at an average rate of 3.5%
(infamously labeled “the Hindu rate of growth”) and then accelerated to an average of about
5.6% since the 1980’s. The growth surge actually started in the mid-1970s except for a disastrous
single year, 1979-80. As we have seen in Table 1.1, the annual GDP growth rate (based on
inflation adjusted, constant prices) of 5.9% during 1990-2005 is the second highest among the
world’s largest economies, behind only China’s 10.1%.
In 2004, 52% of India’s GDP was generated in the services sector, while manufacturing
(agriculture) produced 26% (22%) of GDP. In terms of employment, however, agriculture still
accounts for about two-thirds of the half a billion labor force, indicating both poor productivity
and widespread underemployment. Over 90% of the labor force works in the “unorganized
sector.”

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 8


ROLE OF SEBI

SEBI is regulator to control Indian capital market. Since its establishment in 1992, it is doing
hard work for protecting the interests of Indian investors. SEBI gets education from past cheating
with naive investors of India. Now, SEBI is more strict with those who commit frauds in capital
market. The role of security exchange board of India (SEBI) in regulating Indian capital market
is very important because government of India can only open or take decision to open new stock
exchange in India after getting advice from SEBI.

ROLE OF RESERVE BANK OF INDIA

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) plays a key role of regulator and controller of money market.
The intervention of RBI is varied – curbing crisis situations by reducing key policy rates or
curbing inflationary situations by rising key policy rates such as Repo, Reverse Repo, CRR etc.

FINANCIAL MARKET

financial
market

capital money
market market

primary secondary primary secondary


market market market market

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 9


CAPITAL MARKET

Capital markets are financial markets for the buying and selling of long-term debt- or equity-
backed securities. These markets channel the wealth of savers to those who can put it to long-
term productive use, such as companies or governments making long-term investments.
Financial regulators, such as the UK's Bank of England (BoE) or the U.S. Securities and
Exchange Commission (SEC), oversee the capital markets in their jurisdictions to protect
investors against fraud, among other duties.

1)Primary market
Primarily there are two types of stock markets – the primary market and the secondary
market. This is true for the Indian stock markets as well. Basically the primary market is
the place where the shares are issued for the first time. So when a company is getting
listed for the first time at the stock exchange and issuing shares – this process is
undertaken at the primary market. That means the process of the Initial Public Offering or
IPO and the debentures are controlled at the primary stock market.

2) Secondary market
On the other hand the secondary market is the stock market where existing stocks are
bought and sold by the retail investors through the brokers. It is the secondary market that
controls the price of the stocks. Generally when we speak about investing or trading at
the stock market we mean trading at the secondary stock market. It is the secondary
market where we can invest and trade in the stocks to get the profit from our stock market
investment.
MONEY MARKET
As money became a commodity, the money market became a component of the financial
markets for assets involved in short-term borrowing, lending, buying and selling with original
maturities of one year or less. Trading in the money markets is done over the counter, is
wholesale. Various instruments exist, such as Treasury bills, commercial paper, bankers'
acceptances, deposits, certificates of deposit, bills of exchange, repurchase agreements, federal
funds, and short-lived mortgage-, and asset-backed securities. It provides liquidity funding for
the global financial system. Money markets and capital markets are parts of financial markets.
PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 10
The instruments bear differing maturities, currencies, credit risks, and structure. Therefore they
may be used to distribute the exposure.

Money Market Instruments:


Money Market Instruments provide the tools by which one can operate in the money market.
Money market instrument meets short term requirements of the borrowers and provides liquidity
to the lenders. The most common money market instruments are Treasury Bills, Certificate of
Deposits, Commercial Papers, Repurchase Agreements and Banker's Acceptance.

STOCK EXCHANGES IN INDIA

National Stock Exchange (NSE)


The National Stock Exchange (NSE) is stock exchange located at Mumbai, India. It is the 11th
largest stock exchange in the world by market capitalization and largest in India by daily
turnover and number of trades, for both equities and derivative trading. NSE has a market
capitalization of around US$1 trillion and over 1,652 listings as of July 2012. Though a number
of other exchanges exist, NSE and the Bombay Stock Exchange are the two most significant
stock exchanges in India, and between them are responsible for the vast majority of share
transactions. The NSE's key index is the S&P CNX Nifty, known as the NSE NIFTY (National
Stock Exchange Fifty), an index of fifty major stocks weighted by market capitalization.

Indices

NSE also set up as index services firm known as India Index Services & Products
Limited (IISL) and has launched several stock indices including:

 S&P CNX Nifty, CNX Nifty Junior, S&P CNX 500, CNX Midcap.

Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE)

The Bombay Stock Exchange Limited popularly called BSE is the oldest stock exchange in Asia.
It is located at Dalal Street, Mumbai. Bombay stock exchange was established in 1875. There are
around 5000 Indian companies listed in the stock exchange. As of July 2005, the market
capitalization of the BSE was about Rs.20 trillion i.e. US $ 466 billion. The BSE SENSEX is the
PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 11
short form of Sensitive index also called the BSE 30. It is widely used market index in India and
Asia. As of 2005, it is among the 5th biggest stock exchanges in the world in terms of
transactions volume. Along with the NSE the companies listed on the BSE have a combined
market capitalization of US $ 125.5 billion. In 1990 the BSE crossed the 1000 mark for the first
time. It crossed 2000, 3000 and 4000 figures in 1992. The up-beat mood of the market was
suddenly lost with Harshad Mehta Scam.

BSE Sensex

The BSE SENSEX also known as the BSE 30 is a value-weighted index composed of 30
scrips, with the base April 1979 = 100. The set of companies which make up the index
has been changed only a few minutes in the last 20 years. These companies account for
around one-fifth of the market capitalization of the BSE. Apart from BSE SENSEX, BSE
uses other stock indices as well;

 BSE 500, BSEPSU, BSEMIDCAP, BSE SMAMLCAP, BSEBANK.

MCX Stock Exchange Limited (MCX SX)

MCX Stock Exchange Limited (MCX-SX), India’s new stock exchange, commenced operations
in the Currency Derivatives (CD) segment on October 7, 2008 under the regulatory framework
of Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The
Exchange is recognized by SEBI under Section 4 of Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956.
In line with global best practices and regulatory requirements, clearing and settlement is
conducted through a separate clearing corporation, MCX-SX Clearing Corporation Ltd. (MCX-
SX CCL).

Indices

SX40 is the flagship Index of MCX-SX. A free float based index of 40 large cap - liquid
stocks representing diversified sectors of the economy. It is designed to be a performance
benchmark and to provide for efficient investment and risk management instrument. It
would also help in structuring passive investment vehicles.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 12


INDIAN BROKERAGE INDUSRTY

Stock brokers

A Brokerage firm, or simply Brokerages, is a financial institution that facilitates the buying and
selling of financial securities between a buyer and a seller. Brokerage firms serve a clientele of
investors who trade public stocks and other securities, usually through the firm's agent
stockbrokers, they strive to meet the investing needs of the clinet and exchanges facilitate
security trading. A traditional, or "full service", brokerage firm usually undertakes more than
simply carrying out a stock or bond trade. The staff of this type of brokerage firm is entrusted
with the responsibility of researching the markets to provide appropriate recommendations and in
so doing they direct the actions of pension fund managers and portfolio managers alike. These
firms also offer margin loans for certain approved clients to purchase investments on credit,
subject to agreed terms and conditions. Traditional brokerage firms have also become a source of
up-to-date stock prices and quotes.

Stock broker

A stockbroker is a regulated professional individual, usually associated with a brokerage firm or


broker-dealer, who buys and sells shares and other securities for both retail and institutional
clients, through a stock exchange or over the counter, in return for a fee or commission.
Stockbrokers are known by numerous professional designations, depending on the license they
hold, the type of securities they sell, or the services they provide. In the United States, a
stockbroker must pass both the Series 7 and Series 63 exams in order to be licensed.

Trading Pattern of the Indian Stock Market

Trading in Indian stock exchanges is limited to listed securities of public limited companies.
They are broadly divided into two categories, namely, specified securities (forward list) and non-
specified securities (cash list). Equity shares of dividend paying. Growth-oriented companies
with a paid-up capital of at least Rs-50 million and a market capitalization of at least Rs.100
million and having more than 20.000 shareholders are. Normally, put in the specified group and
the balance in non-specified group.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 13


Two types of transactions can be carried out on the Indian stock exchanges: (a) spot delivery
transactions "for delivery and payment within the time or on the dale stipulated when entering
into the contract which shall not be more than 14 days following the date of the contract": and
(b) forward transactions "delivery and payment can be extended by further period of 14 days
each so that the overall period does not exceed 90 days from the date of the contract". The latter
is permitted only in the case of specified shares.

A member broker in an Indian stock exchange can act as an agent, buy and sell securities for his
clients on a commission basis and also can act as a trader or dealer as a principal, buy and sell
securities on his own account and risk, in contrast with the practice prevailing on New York and
London Stock Exchanges, where a member can act as a jobber or a broker only. The nature of
trading on Indian Stock Exchanges are that of age old conventional style of face-to-face trading
with bids and offers being made by open outcry. However, there is a great amount of effort to
modernize the Indian stock exchanges in the very recent times.

COMPANY PROFILE

HEDGE EQUITIES

Hedge Equities is one of the leading Financial Services Company in India, specialized in
offering a wide range of financial products, tailor made to suit individual needs. Hedge offers its
customers a wide range of equity related services including trade execution on BSE , NSE ,
Derivatives , Depository services , online trading , investment advice etc. The firm has an online
trading and investment site –www.hedgeequities.com. The site gives access to superior content
and transaction facility to retail customers across the country.

Team hedge is a balanced mix of more than 15 years experience cutting across various industries
with a strong background in the financial markets. The board comprises of six power houses in
their respective fields- fedex securities, baby marine exports. Thakkar developers, smart
financial, sm hedge (cfo,Videocon industries) and Padmashree Mohanlal

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 14


MISSION

“To create an ethical and sustainable financial services platform for our customers and partner
them to build business, to provide employees with meaningful work, self-development and
progression, and to achieve a consistent and competitive growth in profit and earnings for our
shareholders and staff”.

VISION

“At Hedge Equities, they endeavor to become a well reputed financial services super-mart
catering to the evolving needs and unique requirements of our clientele, and partnering with
them to Build, Manage, and Grow their Wealth.”

MANAGEMENT

Alex K Babu - Managing Director

Bhuvanendran - CEO

Bobby J Arakunnel- COO

Mr. Mohanlal - Director

Mr. Joy Arrackal - Director

Dr.Samuel George - Director

Mr.Raj Krishnan - Director

Mr. Krishnadas - Director

Mr. Pradeep Kumar C - Director

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 15


HEDGE GROUP

Hedge Equities

Hedge Equities is the flagship company of the Hedge Group. The venture revolutionized
and popularized share trading culture in Kerala. Today, Hedge Equities enjoys the
patronage of 35,000 satisfied customers who are reaping the benefits of professionally
managed portfolios.

Hedge Commodities

Hedge Commodities offers a viable platform to engage in futures trading in agricultural


and non-agricultural commodities. The in-depth knowledge of the Indian and world
markets help our advisors to provide appropriate and timely assistance to our customers.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 16


Hedge School of Applied Economics

The dire dearth of qualified share trading professionals in Kerala is what prompted the
Hedge Group to commence the Hedge School of Applied Economics. Present and
potential stock brokers are molded to international standards under the guidance of
veteran financial experts. Live trading sessions and world class academic amenities are
the highlights of the Hedge School.

Hedge Wealth Management Service (WMS)

The premium Wealth Management Services (WMS) was introduced by Hedge Equities.
The comprehensive financial package is intended at building, managing and growing the
wealth of the client. Service offerings of WMS include Portfolio Management Services
(PMS), Portfolio Advisory Services (PAS), Mutual Fund Advisory (MFA), Commodities,
Foreign Exchange and Derivatives. A specialized team of SEBI registered portfolio
managers and dealers furnish each investor with customized and research oriented
solutions to garner maximum possible returns.

Hedge Finance

With the inception of Hedge Finance, the Hedge Group entered the prestigious NBFC
market of India. The company adheres strictly to the RBI regulations and primarily
focuses on the Loan against Security sector. Hedge Finance has huge growth potential
and intends to diversify its services in the near future.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 17


PRODUCT & SERVICES OF HEDGE EQUITIES

Online trading

Hedge Equities has a large network of branches with online terminals of NSE and BSE in
the Capital market and Derivative segments. The clients are assured of prompt order
execution through dedicated phones and expert dealers at our offices.

Internet Trading

Hedge Equities offers Internet trading through this site. You can trade through the
Internet from the comforts of your office or home, anywhere in the world. The dedicated
IT systems ensure service up time and speed, making Internet broking through Hedge
Equities hassle-free. Using the 'easiest' facility provided by NDSL, our clients can
transfer the shares sold by them online without delivery instruction slips. Additionally,
digitally signed contract notes can be sent to clients through E-mail.

Depository services

Hedge Equities is a member of the National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL), offer
depository services with minimum Annual Maintenance Charges and transaction charges.
Account holders can view their holding position through the Internet. We also offer the
“easiest” facility provided by NDSL (electronic access to securities information and
execution of secured transaction) through which clients can give delivery instructions via
the Internet.

Derivative trading.

Hedge offer trading in the futures and options segment of the National Stock Exchange
(NSE). Through the present derivative trading an investor can take a short-term view on
the market for up to a three months’ perspective by paying a small margin on the futures
segment and a small premium in the options segment. In the case of options, if the trade
goes in the opposite direction the maximum loss will be limited to the premium paid.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 18


Knowledge Centre

Knowledge Centre activities are intended to provide systematic and structured services
mainly to new investors and also to young aspirant aiming for a career in financial
markets. The centre has three functional areas: the publication Division, the Training
centre, and wealth management advisory service which provides complete investment
solutions to investors through knowledge based personalized service.

Equity Research

Hedge Equities constantly strive to deliver insightful research to enable pro-active


investment decisions. The Research Department is broadly divided into two divisions –
Fundamental Analysis Group (FAG) and Technical Analysis Group (TAG). Our
fundamental analysts are continuously scanning the entire economy for discovering what
they call the “hidden gems” in stock market terminology and present it to our clients for
profitable investments. A good Fundamental Analysis team has the capability to identify
emerging businesses before such businesses become the talk of the street and we are
proud to say we have one such Fundamental Analysis team. Timing the market has
always been the most difficult task for all analysts and our Technical Analysis Group has
emerged to predict the market movements well in advance using complex Analytical
methods including Elliot Wave Theory. We are equipped with cutting-edge technologies
for technical charting which assist our technical analysts to predict both upside and
downside movements efficiently for the benefit of our clients.

Portfolio Management Services

Hedge Equities is a SEBI-approved portfolio manager offering discretionary and non-


discretionary schemes to its clients. Hedge Equities’ portfolio management team keeps
track of the markets on a daily basis and is exposed to a lot of information and analytic
tools which an investor would not normally have access to. Other technicalities
pertaining to shares like dividends, rights, bonus, buy-back, Mergers and Acquisitions are
also taken care of by us. Maximize your returns by opting for our PMS scheme.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 19


Commodity Trading

You can trade in commodity futures like gold, silver, crude oil, rubber etc. and take
advantage of the extended trading hours (10 am to 11 pm) in commodities trading.

Mutual Funds, Bonds etc.

We also offer Mutual Funds and Bonds. You can select from a wide range of Mutual
Funds and Bonds available in the markets today.

Currency Trading

Currency derivatives can be described as contracts between the sellers and buyers, whose
values are to be derived from the underlying assets, the currency amounts. These are
basically risk management tools in force and money markets used for hedging risks and
act as insurance against unforeseen and unpredictable currency and interest rate
movements. Any individual or corporate expecting to receive or pay certain amounts in
foreign currencies at future date can use these products to opt for a fixed rate - at which
the currencies can be exchanged now itself. Currency derivative serve the purpose of
financial risk management encompassing various market risks. An upfront premium is
payable for buying a derivative.

Currency Futures will bring in more transparency and efficiency in price discovery,
eliminate counterparty credit risk, provide access to all types of market participants, offer
standardized products and provide transparent trading platform.

CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY

Being a Responsible Corporate Citizen, Hedge Equities has initiated a Non Profit movement
‘Hedge Yuva’ which focuses on educating the masses about Stock Market, and the Hedge
Equities initiates Hedge School of Applied Economics with the sole objective of moulding
highly qualified investment professionals in the state. In other words, Hedge school is a
knowledge initiative of Hedge Equities. It is the leading financial institution in the arena of
Wealth management and allied financial services. Through the various activities of school, they

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 20


facilitate students, youth and investors to explore career as well as investment opportunities in
this sector.

COMPETITORS INFORMATION

Major competitors of Hedge equities are as follows:

• Geojit BNP Parbas

• JRG Secuirities

• Religare

• Muthoot Securities

• Share wealth

• Motilal Oswal

• Anandrathi

• Angel Brocking

• Accuman Capital

• Nirmal Bang

REGIONAL ORGANIZATION STRUCTURE

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 21


ORGANIZATION STRUCTURE

FUNCTIONAL DEPARTMENTS

• Client Relation Department: The client relation department assists the client or
customer top open an account in HEDGE EQUITIES (p) Ltd securities. This department
is also known as the front office. A client has to open two types of accounts to trade and
own securities in the NSE & BSE.

• Finance Department: Thus a department, to organize financial activities may be created


under the direct control of the board of directors. Finance manager will decide the major
financial policy methods. Lower levels can delegate the other routine activities.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 22


• Marketing Department: The major functions of marketing department are: (i) Business
associate development (ii) Brand promotion (iii) Investment promotion(iv) Delivery
promotion

• Systems Department: The systems department is playing a vital role in the day
operations of the company. It is through the systems department that the clients can avail
the facilities of Internet trading

• Human Resources Department: Human resource is often considered as the back bone
of an organization even in this age of advanced automation and mechanization. Since
virtual organizations are not very much popular in our part of the world, it is very
important to any organization to have a HR department.

• Trading Department: The department deals with the trading related activities of the
company. The trading refers to the buying and selling of shares. This department is the
most important part of the organization. There are two types of trading. They are

1) Online Trading.

2) Internet Trading.

• Delivery and Depository Department: Delivery refers to the share that bought on
particular day are not sold on that day itself and holding of the share for an appreciation
in the value of the security and to trade it on a future date. Deliver Instruction Slip: it is a
slip the client should fill and gave to the dealer regarding the purchase of the share.

• Equity Research Department: The function of the department is to study the details
regarding the share or securities and to make prediction regarding the future performance
of the company.

THEORETICAL BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

The word "investment" can be defined in many ways according to different theories and
principles. It is a term that can be used in a number of contexts. However, the different meanings
of "investment" are more alike than dissimilar. Generally, investment is the application of money

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 23


for earning more money. Investment also means savings or savings made through delayed
consumption. According to economics, investment is the An amount deposited into a bank or
machinery that is purchased in anticipation of earning income in the long run are both examples
of investments. Although there is a general broad definition to the term investment, it carries
slightly different meanings to different industrial sectors. On the other hand, finance
professionals define an investment as money utilized for buying financial assets, for example
stocks, bonds, bullion, real properties, and precious items. Utilization of resources in order to
increase income or production output in the future. According to finance, the practice of
investment refers to the buying of a financial product or any valued item with anticipation that
positive returns will be received in the future. The most important feature of financial
investments is that they carry high market liquidity. The method used for evaluating the value of
a financial investment is known as valuation.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Fundamental analysis is a stock valuation methodology that uses financial and economic analysis
to envisage the movement of stock prices. The fundamental data that is analysed could include a
company’s financial reports and non-financial information such as estimates of its growth,
demand for products sold by the company, industry comparisons, economy-wide changes,
changes in government policies etc.

The outcome of fundamental analysis is a value (or a range of values) of the stock of the
company called its ‘intrinsic value’ (often called ‘price target’ in fundamental analysts’
parlance). To a fundamental investor, the market price of a stock tends to revert towards its
intrinsic value. If the intrinsic value of a stock is above the current market price, the investor
would purchase the stock because he believes that the stock price would rise and move towards
its intrinsic value. If the intrinsic value of a stock is below the market price, the investor would
sell the stock because he believes that the stock price is going to fall and come closer to its
intrinsic value.

To find the intrinsic value of a company, the fundamental analyst initially takes a top-down view
of the economic environment; the current and future overall health of the economy as a whole.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 24


After the analysis of the macro-economy, the next step is to analyse the industry environment
which the firm is operating in. One should analyse all the factors that give the firm a competitive
advantage in its sector, such as, management experience, history of performance, growth
potential, low cost of production, brand name etc. This step of the analysis entails finding out as
much as possible about the industry and the inter-relationships of the companies operating in the
industry.

Steps in Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis is the cornerstone of investing. In fact all types of investing comprise
studying some fundamentals. The subject of fundamental analysis is also very vast. However, the
most important part of fundamental analysis involves delving into the financial statements. This
involves looking at revenue, expenses, assets, liabilities and all the other financial aspects of a
company. Fundamental analysts look at these information to gain an insight into a company’s
future performance.

Fundamental analysis consists of a systematic series of steps to examine the investment


environment of a company and then identify opportunities. Some of these are:

• Macroeconomic analysis - which involves analyzing capital flows, interest rate cycles,
currencies, commodities, indices etc.

• Industry analysis - which involves the analysis of industry and the companies that are a
part of the sector

• Financial analysis of the company

• Valuation

Ratios for financial analysis

I) Management efficiency ratio

A) Return on Equity (ROE)

Return on equity or return on capital is the ratio of net income of a business


during a year to its stockholders' equity during that year. It is a measure of

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 25


profitability of stockholders' investments. It shows net income as percentage of
shareholder equity.

ROE = PAT/ Net worth Where,

Net Worth = Share Capital + Reserve and Surplus

b) Return on asset (ROA)

Return on assets is the ratio of annual net income to average total assets of
a business during a financial year. It measures efficiency of the business in using
its assets to generate net income. It is a profitability ratio.

ROA=Net income/Total Asset

II) Growth ratio

a)Earnings Per Share (EPS) Ratio

Earnings per share (EPS) ratio indicate the net income earned by each share of
outstanding stock. It is most often used by investors as a primary comparison of
performance and profitability across different companies.

EPS = Profit after Tax / Number of Equity Dividend

b) Price to Earnings Ratio (PE)

It is the ratio of a company's stock price to its earnings per share.


(Earnings per share or EPS is a company's net profit divided by the number of
shares it has issued.) Another way of looking at the P/E ratio is as a ratio of the
value that the market thinks a company deserves (its market capitalisaton) to its
net profit.

PE ratio = Market Price per Share/ EPS

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 26


III) Per share ratio

A) Book value

The Price to Book Ratio formula, sometimes referred to as the market to


book ratio, is used to compare a company's net assets available to common
shareholders relative to the sale price of its stock. The formula for price to
book value is the stock price per share divided by the book value per share

Book value = Net worth – Preference dividend / Total number of equity


shares

B) Dividend per share ratio

The sum of declared dividends for every ordinary share issued. Dividend per
share (DPS) is the total dividends paid out over an entire year (including interim
dividends but not including special dividends) divided by the number of
outstanding ordinary shares issued.

DPS can be calculated by using the following formula:

DIVIDEND PER SHARE=DPS/EPS

IV) Leverage ratio

A) Debt/equity ratio

Debt-to-Equity ratio is the ratio of total liabilities of a business to its shareholders'


equity. It is a leverage ratio and it measures the degree to which the assets of the
business are financed by the debts and the shareholders' equity of a business.

Debt Equity Ratio=Total liabilities/Shareholders Equity

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 27


B) Current Ratio

Current ratio is the ratio of current assets of a business to its current


liabilities. It is the most widely used test of liquidity of a business and measures
the ability of a business to repay its debts over the period of next 12 months.

CURRENT RATIO =CURRENT ASSET/CURRENT LIABILITY

V) Profitability ratio

A) Net Profit Margin

Profit margin is very useful when comparing companies in similar industries. A


higher profit margin indicates a more profitable company that has better control
over its costs compared to its competitors. Profit margin is displayed as a
percentage.

Net profit margin = Net income/Sales revenue

B) Dividend Payout Ratio

Dividend payout ratio is the ratio of dividend per share divided by earnings per
share. It is a measure of how much earnings a company is paying out to its
shareholders as compared to how much it is retaining for reinvestment.

Dividend payout ratio = Dividend per share / EPS * 100

C) Earnings Retention Ratio

The earnings retention ratio (ability to keep profits and pay to shareholders) is a
way to calculate what the percentageof earnings are returned to shareholders.

Earnings Retention Ratio = (net income-dividends)/net income

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 28


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical Analysis can be defined as an art and science of forecasting future prices based on an
examination of the past price movements. Technical analysis is not astrology for predicting
prices. Technical analysis is based on analyzing current demand-supply of commodities, stocks,
indices, futures or any tradable instrument. Technical analysis involve putting stock information
like prices, volumes and open interest on a chart and applying various patterns and indicators to
it in order to assess the future price movements. The time frame in which technical analysis is
applied may range from intraday (1-minute, 5-minutes, 10-minutes, 15-minutes, 30-minutes or
hourly), daily, weekly or monthly price data to many years. There are essentially two methods of
analyzing investment opportunities in the security market viz fundamental analysis and technical
analysis. You can use fundamental information like financial and non-financial aspects of the
company or technical information which ignores fundamentals and focuses on actual price
movements.

The basis of Technical Analysis

What makes Technical Analysis an effective tool to analyze price behavior is explained by

Following theories given by Charles Dow:

• Price discounts everything


• Price movements are not totally random

1)Price discounts everything

Each price represents a momentary consensus of value of all market participants - large
commercial interests and small speculators, fundamental researchers, technicians and
gamblers- at the moment of transaction" - Dr Alexander Elder

Technical analysts believe that the current price fully reflects all the possible material
information which could affect the price. The market price reflects the sum knowledge of all
participants, including traders, investors, portfolio managers, buy-side analysts, sell-side
analysts, market strategist, technical analysts, fundamental analysts and many others. It
would be folly to disagree with the price set by such an impressive array of people with

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 29


impeccable credentials. Technical analysis looks at the price and what it has done in the past
and assumes it will perform similarly in future under similar circumstances. Technical
analysis looks at the price and assumes that it will perform in the same way as done in the
past under similar circumstances in future.

2) Price movements are not totally random

Technical analysis is a trend following system. Most technicians acknowledge that hundreds
of years of price charts have shown us one basic truth - prices move in trends. If prices were
always random, it would be extremely difficult to make money using technical analysis. A
technician believes that it is possible to identify a trend, invest or trade based on the trend and
make money as the trend unfolds. Because technical analysis can be applied to many
different time frames, it is possible to spot both short-term and long-term trends.

Chart

Charts are the working tools of technical analysts. They use charts to plot the price movements
of a stock over specific time frames. It's a graphical method of showing where stock prices have
been in the past.

Types of price charts:

1. Line charts

2. Bar chart

3. Candlesticks

Support &Resistance

Support and resistance represent key junctures where the forces of supply and demand meet.
These lines appear as thresholds to price patterns. They are the respective lines which stops the
prices from decreasing or increasing.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 30


TOOL USED

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci Retracements are ratios used to identify potential reversal levels. These ratios are
found in the Fibonacci sequence. The most popular Fibonacci Retracements are 61.8% and
38.2%. Note that 38.2% is often rounded to 38% and 61.8 is rounded to 62%. After an advance,
chartists apply Fibonacci ratios to define retracement levels and forecast the extent of a
correction or pullback. Fibonacci Retracements can also be applied after a decline to forecast the
length of a counter trend bounce. These retracements can be combined with other indicators
and price patterns to create an overall strategy.

Indicator

A Technical indicator is a mathematical formula applied to the security's price, volume or open
interest. The result is a value that is used to anticipate future changes in prices. A technical
indicator is a series of data points derived by applying a formula to the price data of a security.
Price data includes any combination of the open, high, low or close over a period of time. Some
indicators may use only the closing prices, while others incorporate volume and open interest
into their formulas. The price data is entered into the formula and a data point is produced.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 31


Indicator used
1) Relative Strength Index - RSI
A technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent
losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset. It is calculated
using the following formula:

RSI = 100 - 100/(1 + RS*)

*Where RS = Average of x days' up closes / Average of x days' down closes.

As you can see from the chart, the RSI ranges from 0 to 100. An asset is deemed to be
overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, meaning that it may be getting overvalued and
is a good candidate for a pullback. Likewise, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the
asset may be getting oversold and therefore likely to become undervalued.

A trader using RSI should be aware that large surges and drops in the price of an asset will affect
the RSI by creating false buy or sell signals. The RSI is best used as a valuable complement to
other stock-picking tools.

Simple Moving Average - SMA

A simple, or arithmetic, moving average that is calculated by adding the closing price of the
security for a number of time periods and then dividing this total by the number of time periods.
Short-term averages respond quickly to changes in the price of the underlying, while long-term
averages are slow to react.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 32


In other words, this is the average stock price over a certain period of time. Keep in mind that
equal weighting is given to each daily price. As shown in the chart above, many traders watch
for short-term averages to cross above longer-term averages to signal the beginning of an
uptrend. As shown by the blue arrows, short-term averages (e.g. 15-period SMA) act as levels of
support when the price experiences a pullback. Support levels become stronger and more
significant as the number of time periods used in the calculations increases.

Generally, when you hear the term "moving average", it is in reference to a simple moving
average. This can be important, especially when comparing to an exponential moving average
(EMA).

PRIVATE BANKING SECTOR

All those banks where greater parts of stake or equity are held by the private shareholders and
not by government are called "private-sector banks". These are the major players in the banking
sector as well as in expansion of the business activities India. The present private-sector banks
equipped with all kinds of contemporary innovations, monetary tools and techniques to handle
the complexities are a result of the evolutionary process over two centuries. They have a highly
developed organizational structure and are professionally managed. Thus they have grown faster
and stronger since past few years.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 33


CHAPTER 3
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 34


RESEARCH DESIGN

A research design is the arrangement of conditions for collection and analysis of data in
manner that aims to combine relevance to the research purpose with economy in
procedure.

Type of research: Descriptive Research

Under this project study used the Descriptive Research. Descriptive study is a fact-
finding investigation with adequate interpretation. It is the simplest type of research. It
includes survey and fact finding enquiries of different kinds. The major purpose of
Descriptive Research is descriptive of the state of affairs as it exists at present. so
researcher has no control over the variables

STUDY APPROACH

There are two basic approaches to research namely;

 Quantitative approach
 Qualitative approach

Quantitative approach

This study is based on measurable quantities so quantitative approach is used in this project
work. Therefore, data, in this approach, are available in the quantitative form.

TECHNIQUES OF DATA COLLECTION

Secondary Data

Secondary data are those which are already being collected by someone else and which have
already being passed through the statistical process. It is any data originally generated for
some purpose other than the present research objectives. The secondary Sources of data are:

 Organization document.
 Departmental manuals.
 Website

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 35


SAMPLING TECHNIQUES

The study was conducted for the period 2008-2012 and was based on data from four
private sector banks. The data collected for analysis involves both fundamental and
technical aspects and the value of NSE NIFTY benchmark index).

o The selected bank for the analysis are:

SL.NO BANKS

1 HDFC BANK
2 ICICI BANK
3 AXIS BANK
4 YES BANK

STATISTICAL TOOLS FOR DATA ANALYSIS

Statistical techniques is defined as a collection of methods used to process large amounts

of report overall trends and data. It refers to an assortment of methodologies used in

measurement of data. It is normally used in ascertaining relative performance that

involves assumptions about functional relationships.

Three statistical tools are used in this project;

1. Percentage analysis

2. Graphical representation of data.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 36


1. Percentage analysis

Percentage analysis is being widely used to interpret the results since it is simple

and easy to understand for everyone. This is the best method for interpreting certain

results. Here, in this study the percentage is being calculated in hundred thus the results

are interpreted. Tables and charts are used in the study to make clearer and

understandable. Percentage is often used in the data presentation as they simply numbers,

reducing all of them to 0 to 100 ranges. Through the use of percentage data are reduced to

standard from with base equal to 100. Hence, the answer interpreted using the method

will help the researcher to arrive at a good conclusion for the study.

Percentage Analysis = Number of respondents 100


Sample size

2. Graphical representation of data

A graphical representation is a visual display of data and statistical results. It is

often more effective than presenting data in tabular form. There are many different types

of graphical representation and which is used depends on the nature of the data and the

type of statistical results for example, graphs, diagrams, maps and charts.

In this project simple bar diagram is used as the tool for graphical representation.

 Simple bar diagram

A simple bar diagram is constructed for an immediate comparison. It is advisable

to arrange the given data set in an ascending or descending order and plot the data

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 37


variables accordingly. Simple bar diagram is used in this project in order to visualize the

percentage of different variables.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 38


CHATER 4
DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 39


FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

I) ECONOMY ANALYSIS

FISCAL DEFICIT, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT AND INFLATION

The purpose of Budget to create economic space and find resources to achieve the
objective of inclusive development. Dr Vijay Kelkar Committee made its
recommendations to Government in September 2012. A new fiscal consolidation path
with fiscal deficit at 5.3 per cent of GDP this year and 4.8 per cent of GDP in 2013-14
announced by the Government. Foreign investment in an imperative in view of the high
current account deficit (CAD). FII, FDI and ECB three main source of CAD Financing.
Foreign investment that is consistent with our economic objectives to be encouraged.
Development must be economically and ecologically sustainable and democratically
legitimate. Battle against inflation must be fought on all fronts. Efforts in the past few
months have brought down headline WPI inflation to about 7 per cent and core inflation
to about 4.2 percent. Food inflation is worrying but all possible steps to be taken to
augment the supply side to meet the growing demand for food items. Government
expenditure has both good and bad consequences and trick is to find the correct level of
Government expenditure. Faced with huge fiscal deficit, Government expenditure
rationalized in 2012-13. Some economic space retrieved. Space to be used to further
Government's socio- economic objectives

SAVINGS

Need to incentivize greater savings by household sector in financial instruments.


Following measures proposed: Rajiv Gandhi Equity Savings Scheme to be liberalized.
Additional deduction of interest upto ` 1 lakh for a person taking first home loan up to `
25 lakh during period 1.4.2013 to 31.3.2014 In consultation with RBI, instruments
protecting savings from inflation to be introduced.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 40


BANKING

Compliance of public sector banks with Basel III regulations to be ensured. 14,000 crore
provided in BE 2013-14 for infusing capital. All branches of public sector banks to have
ATM by 31.3.2014. Proposal to set up India's first Women's Bank as a public sector
bank. Provision of ` 1,000 crore as initial capital.

6,000 crore to Rural Housing Fund in 2013-14. National Housing Bank to set up Urban
Housing Fund. ` 2,000 crore to be provided to the fund in 2013-14

GDP

YEAR GDP YEAR GDP


2003 7.94 2008 3.89
2004 7.85 2009 8.48
2005 9.28 2010 10.55
2006 9.26 2011 6.33
2007 9.8 2012 4.5

INTERPRETATION

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in India expanded 1.30 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012 over the
previous quarter. GDP Growth Rate in India is reported by the OECD. Historically, from 1996 until 2012,

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 41


India GDP Growth Rate averaged 1.63 Percent reaching an all time high of 5.80 Percent in December of
2003 and a record low of -1.70 Percent in March of 2009. In India, the growth rate in GDP measures the
change in the seasonally adjusted value of the goods and services produced by the Indian economy
during the quarter. India is the world’s tenth largest economy and the second most populous.

INFLATION RATE

INTERPRETATION

The inflation rate in India was recorded at 4.89 percent in April of 2013. Inflation Rate in India is
reported by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. Historically, from 1969 until 2013, India Inflation
Rate averaged 7.74 Percent reaching an all time high of 34.68 Percent in September of 1974 and a
record low of -11.31 Percent in May of 1976. In India, the wholesale price index (WPI) is the main
measure of inflation. The WPI measures the price of a representative basket of wholesale goods. In
India, wholesale price index is divided into three groups:

INDIA CURRENT ACCOUNT TO GDP

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 42


INTERPRETATION

India recorded a Current Account deficit of 5.10 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in
2012. Current Account to GDP in India is reported by the Ministry of Finance, Government of India.
Historically, from 1980 until 2012, India Current Account to GDP averaged -1.46 Percent reaching an all
time high of 1.50 Percent in December of 2003 and a record low of -5.10 Percent in December of 2012.
The Current account balance as a percent of GDP provides an indication on the level of international
competitiveness of a country. Usually, countries recording a strong current account surplus have an
economy heavily dependent on exports revenues, with high savings ratings but weak domestic demand.
On the other hand, countries recording a current account deficit have strong imports, a low saving rates
and high personal consumption rates as a percentage of disposable incomes. This page includes a chart
with historical data for India Current Account to GDP.

INDIA INTEREST RATE

INTERPRETATION

The benchmark interest rate in India was last recorded at 7.25 percent. Interest Rate in India is reported
by the Reserve Bank of India. Historically, from 2000 until 2013, India Interest Rate averaged 6.57
Percent reaching an all time high of 14.50 Percent in August of 2000 and a record low of 4.25 Percent in
April of 2009. In India, interest rate decisions are taken by the Reserve Bank of India's Central Board of
Directors. The official interest rate is the benchmark repurchase rate. This page includes a chart with
historical data for India Interest Rate.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 43


INDIA GOVERNMENT BUDGET

INTERPRETATION

India is expected to record a Government Budget deficit equal to 5.2 percent of the country's Gross
Domestic Product in 2012/13 fiscal year. Government Budget in India is reported by the Ministry of
Finance, Government of India. Historically, from 1990 until 2011, India Government Budget averaged -
3.7 Percent of GDP reaching an all time high of -2.0 Percent of GDP in December of 1996 and a record
low of -7.8 Percent of GDP in December of 2008. Government Budget is an itemized accounting of the
payments received by government (taxes and other fees) and the payments made by government
(purchases and transfer payments). A budget deficit occurs when an government spends more money
than it takes in. The opposite of a budget deficit is a budget surplus. This page includes a chart with
historical data for India Government Budget.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 44


II) INDUSTRY ANALYSIS

I) Porter's five forces model

BARRIEIERS TO ENTRY
>Product differentiations very difficult
>Licensing requirement

BARGAINING
THREAT OF COMPETITORS BARGAINING POWER
POWER OF
OF CONSUMER VERY
SUPPLIERS IS VERY >Large No Of Banks
HIGH
LOW >High Market Growth >Large No of
>Nature Of Suppliers >Rate Alternatives
>Few Alternatives >Low Switching Costs >Low Switching
>RBI Rules And >Undifferentiated Costs
Regulations >Undifferentiated
>Services
>Suppliers Are Not Services
Concentrated >High Fixed Cost
>Full Information
>Forward >High Exit Barriers about Product
Integration

THREAT OF SUBSTITUTE
>Non Banking Financial Sector Increasing
Rapidly
>Deposits In Posts
>Stock Market
>NBFC
>Mutual Fund

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 45


POTENTIAL ENTRY OF NEW COMPETITORS

Reserve Bank of India has laid out a stagnant rules and regulation for new entrant in Banking
Industry. We expect merger and acquisition in the banking industry in near future. Hence, the
industry is less proof new competitor. Barriers to an entry in banking industry no longer exist. So
lots of private and foreign banks are entering in the market. Competitors can come from an
industry to „disinter mediate‟ bank product differentiation is very difficult for banks and exit is
difficult. So every bank strives to survive in highly competitive market so we see intense
competitive can mergers and acquisitions. Government policies are supportive to start new bank.
There is less statutory requirement needed to start a new venture. Every bank to tries to achieve
economies of scale through use of technology and selecting and training manpower. There are
public sector banks, private sector and foreign banks along with nonbanking finance companies
competing in similar business segments

RIVALRY AMONG COMPETING FIRMS

Rivalry among competitors is very fierce in Indian Banking Industry. The services banks offer is
more of homogeneous which makes the Company to offer the same service at a lower rate and
eat their competitor market’s share. Market Players use all sorts of aggressive selling strategies
and activities from intensive advertisement campaigns to promotional stuff. Even consumer
switch from one bank to another, if there is a wide spread in the interest. Hence the intensity of
rivalry is very high. The no of factors has contributed to increase rivalry those are.

1. A large no of banks

2. High market growth rate

3. Homogeneous product and services

4. Low switching cost

5. Undifferentiated services

6. High exit barriers

7. Low government regulations

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 46


BARGAINING POWER OF SUPPLIERS

Banking industry is governed by Reserve Bank of India. Reserve Bank of India is the authority
to take monetary action which leads to direct impact on circulation of money in the Economy.
The rules and regulation lay down by RBI. Suppliers of banks are depositors .these are those
people who have excess money and prefer regular income and safety. In banking industry
suppliers have low bargaining power.

1. Nature of suppliers

Suppliers of banks are those people who prefer low risk and those who need regular
income and safety as well. Banks best place for them to deposits theirs surplus money.

2. RBI rules and regulations

Banks are subject to RBI rules and regulations .bank have to behave in a way that RBI .
So RBI takes all decisions related to interest rates. This reduces bargaining power of
suppliers.

3. Suppliers not concentrated

Banking industry suppliers sure not concentrated. There are numerous with negligible
portion of offer .so this reduce their bargaining power.

BARGAINING POWER OF CONSUMERS

In today world, Customer is the King. Banks offers different services According to clients need
and requirement. They offer loans at Prime Lending Rate (PLR) to their trust worthy clients and
higher rate to others clients. Customers of banks are those who take loans and uses services of
banks. Customers have high bargaining power. These are

1. Large no of alternatives

Customers have large no of alternatives, there are so many banks, which fight for same
pie. There are many non financial institutions like icici, hdfc, and ifci, etc. which has also
jump into these business. there are foreign banks , private banks, co-operative banks and

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 47


development banks together with specialized financial companies that provides finance to
customers .these all increase preference for customers.

2. Low switching cost

Cost of switching from one bank to another is low. Banks are also providing zero balance
account another types of facilities. They are free to select any banks service. Switching
cost are becoming lower with internet banking gaining momentum and a result customers
loyalties are harder to retain.

3. Undiffenciated service

Bank provide merely similar service there are no much diffracted in service provides by
different banks so, bargaining power of customers increase. They cannot be charged for
differentiation.

4. Full information about the market

Customers have full information about the market due to globalization and digitalization
Consumers have become advance and sophisticated .they are aware with each market
condition so banks have to be more competitive and customer friendly to serve them.

POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SUBSTITUTE PRODUCTS

Every day there is one or the other new product in financial sector. Banks are not limited to
tradition banking which just offers deposit and lending. In addition, today banks offers loans for
all products, derivatives, For Ex, Insurance, Mutual Fund, Demit account to name a few. The
wide range of choices and needs give a sufficient room for new product development and
product enhancement. Substitute products or services are those, which are different but satisfy
the same set of customers. In private banking industry following are the substitutes:

NBFC: Non-banking financial Institutions play an important role in giving financial


assistance. Mobilization of financial resources outside the traditional banking system has
witnessed tremendous growth in recent years in the India. NBFC is a close substitute of
banking in respect of raising funds. Borrower can easily raise funds from NBFC because
it requires less formal procedure for getting funds compare to private banks.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 48


Post Office Products: Post office is also providing some service like fixed deposit
facility, saving account, recurring account etc. The interest rate of saving account is
higher than private banks. It is fully secured by the government so people who do not
want to take risk for them post office saving is good substitute.

Government Bond: Govt. Bond also attracts savings from the general public. It is less
risky and more secured as compare to savings in private banks.

Mutual Funds: Mutual funds are also now proving as good substitutes for banks. They
assure for providing high return with less time in comparison of banks. The
administrative expenses are also very low as compared to banks. Investment in Mutual
funds is more flexible than investment in banks.

Stock Market: People who are ready to bear risk and wants a high return on their
investment, stock market is a good substitute for them. Day by day investors are moving
towards stock market as interest rate in banks are decreasing. So now stock market has
proved as a big competitor for baking sector.

Debentures: Debentures is also proved as a good substitute of bank’s fixed deposit as


return on debenture is fixed and high. There are different types of debentures, which
attract various classes of investors.

Other Investment Alternatives: Now common people’s attraction is shifting from banks
to other various alternatives such as gold, precious metals, land, small savings etc. As we
can see the growing trend in these alternatives in comparison of decreasing interest rates
in banks.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 49


III) COMPANY ANALYSIS

I) AXIS BANK

Axis Bank Limited provides retail and corporate banking services in India. Its deposit products
include savings, current, resident foreign currency, and salary accounts, as well as fixed deposits, tax
saver fixed deposits, prepaid cards, and recurring deposits. The company’s loan products comprise
home loans, car loans, education loans, personal loans, loans against shares and security, and loans
against property and gold for individuals; working capital finance for corporate; loans against
property for small and medium enterprises; microfinance for microfinance institutions; and
agriculture business loans. It also offers safe deposit locker, Internet banking, money transfer,
payment and collection, cash management, finance management, and forex services; investment
products; life, health, accident, home, motor, and business guard insurance products; merchant
solutions; capital market and treasury solutions; trading services; and debit, credit, and prepaid cards.
As of March 31, 2013, it operated 1,947 branches and extension counters, as well as 11,245 ATMs in
India. Axis Bank Limited also has branches in Singapore, Hong Kong, Dubai, Colombo, Abu Dhabi,
and Shanghai. The company was formerly known as UTI Bank Limited and changed its name to Axis
Bank Limited in July 2007. Axis Bank Limited was incorporated in 1993 and is based in Mumbai,
India.

I)PROFITABILITY RATIO

A) NET PROFIT MARGIN (%)

Net profit margin = Net income/Sales revenue

YEAR Net profit margin (%)

2012 15.51
2011 17.2
2010 16.1
2009 13.31
2008 12.22

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 50


Net profit margin (%)
20

15

10
Net profit margin (%)
5

0
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

INTERPRETATION

The above table shows that, AXIS Bank is having high Net Profit Margin of 17.2% during the
year 2011.

B) DIVIDEND PAYOUT RATIO (NET PROFIT)


Dividend payout ratio = Dividend per share / EPS * 100

YEAR Dividend payout ratio (net profit)

2012 18.15
2011 19.78
2010 22.56
2009 23.16
2008 23.49

Dividend payout ratio (net profit)


25

20

15
Dividend payout ratio (net profit)
10

0
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 51


INTERPRETATION

The above table shows that, AXIS Bank is having high dividend payout ratio of 23.49% during
the year 2008.

C) EARNING RETENTION RATIO


Retention ratio= (net income-dividends)/net income

YEAR Earning retention ratio

2012 81.77
2011 80.26
2010 77.47
2009 76.94
2008 76.84

Earning retention ratio


83
82
81
80
79
78 Earning retention ratio
77
76
75
74
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

INTERPRETATION

The above table shows that, AXIS Bank is having high Retention ratio of 81.77 % during the
year 2012

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 52


II) MANAGAGEMENT EFFICIENCY RATIO

A) ROE
ROE=PAT/ Net worth
Net Worth = Share Capital + Reserve and Surplus

YEAR ROE
2012 18.51
2011 17.87
2010 15.69
2009 17.75
2008 12.38

Return on equity
20
15
10
return on equity
5
0
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

INTERPRETATION

The graph shows that, AXIS Bank is having high Return on equity of 18.51 % during the year
2012.

B) RETURN ON ASSET

RETURN ON ASSET = Net income/total asset

YEAR ROA
2011-2012 18.51
2010-2011 17.87
2009-2010 15.69
2008-2009 17.85
2007-2008 12.38

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 53


INTERPRETATION

From the above table it is clearly understood that there is a fluctuating growth in the ROA
for last five years and it reaches in the highest of 18.51 in 2012

III) GROWTH RATIO

A) EPS

EPS= PAT/ Number of equity shares

YEAR EPS
2011-2012 102.67
2010-2011 82.54
2009-2010 62.06
2008-2009 50.57
2007-2008 29.94

EPS
120
100
80
60
EPS
40
20
0
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 54


INTERPRETATION

From the above table it is clearly understood that there is a continues growth in the EPS
for last four years and it reaches in the highest of 102.67 in 2012.

B) PRICE EARNING RATIO


PE RATIO= Market Price Per Share/ EPS

YEAR PE RATIO

2011-2012 11.04
2010-2011 16.16
2009-2010 15.02
2008-2009 11.68

2007-2008 26.23

PE Ratio
30

25

20

15
PE Ratio
10

0
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

INTERPRETATION

From the above table it is clearly understood that there is a fluctuating growth in the PE
Ratio for last five years and it reaches in the highest of 26.23 in 2008.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 55


IV) LEVARAGE RATIO

A) CURRENT RATIO

Current ratio =current asset/current liability

YEAR CURRENT RATIO

2011-2012 0.75
2010-2011 0.56
2009-2010 0.63
2008-2009 0.37

2007-2008 0.36

INTERPRETATION

From the above table it is clearly understood that there is a uptrend in growth in the
Current Ratio for last five years and it reaches in the highest of .75 in 2012.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 56


B) DEBT/EQUTY RATIO

Debt/equty ratio = total liability/shareholders equity

YEAR Debt equity ratio

2011-2012 9.96

2010-2011 8.81

2009-2010 11.49

2008-2009 9.99

2007-2008 9.96

INTERPRETATION

From the above table it is clearly understood that there is a fluctuating growth in the debt
equity Ratio for last five years and it reaches in the highest of 11.49 in 2010.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 57


V) PER SHARE RATIO

A) BOOK VALUE

BOOK VALUE = Net worth – Preference dividend / Total number of equity shares

YEAR Book value

2011-2012 551.99
2010-2011 462.77
2009-2010 395.99
2008-2009 284.5
2007-2008 245.13

Book value
600

500

400

300
Book value
200

100

0
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

INTERPRETATION

From the above table it is clearly understood that there is a uptrend growth in the Book
value for last five years and it reaches in the highest of 551.99 in 2012.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 58


B)DIVIDEND PER SHARE
Dividend per share = dividend / number of shares

Year Dividend per share

2011-2012 18

2010-2011 16

2009-2010 14

2008-2009 10

2007-2008 6

DIVIDEND PER SHARE


20
18
16
14
12
10
DIVIDEND PER SHARE
8
6
4
2
0
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

INTERPRETATION

From the above table it is clearly understood that there is a continues growth in the DPS
for last five years and it reaches in the highest of 18 in 2012.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 59


FAIR VALUE CALCULATION AXIS BANK

1.) REVENUE GROWTH

year revenue Average Last 3-yr average growth


Mar '09 13,732.37
Mar '10 15,583.80 13.48
Mar '11 19,786.94 26.97
Mar '12 27,414.87 38.55
Mar '13 33,733.68 23.05 29.52

2.) PAT margin

Net Profit/(Loss) For Last 3-yr average


year the Period revenue net profit margin growth in PAT
Mar '09 1815.36 13,732.37 13.22
Mar '10 2514.53 15,583.80 16.14
Mar '11 3388.49 19,786.94 17.12
Mar '12 4242.21 27,414.87 15.47
Mar '13 5179.43 33,733.68 15.35 15.98

3.) Projected Revenue

= ((Last year revenue * Last 3-yr average growth)/100) + Last year revenue

= (33,733.68*29.52)/100

=9958.1823

=9958.1823+33733.68

=43693.03 FY14E

4.) Projected PAT

= (Projected revane * Last 3-yr average growth in PAT)

= (43693.03*15.98)/100

=6984.02 FY14E

5) Projected Dividend Payout

= Projected PAT * current year Dividend Payout

=6984.02 *19%

=1326.96 FY14E
PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 60
6.) No of Share

No of share in AXISBANK: 467954468

7.) Projected Book Value

= Addition this year

= Projected PAT- Projected Dividend Payout

=6984.02-1326.96

=5657.06

= per share

= (Addition this year*1, 00, 00,000)/no of share

= (5657.06*1, 00, 00,000)/ 467954468

=120.89

=Current Book value

=707.50 FY 13

= Projected Book Value

= per share + Current Book value

=120.89 + 707.50

=828.39 FY14E

8.) 3 Year Average P/BV

=2.00

9.) FY14E projected Value of share

= Projected Book Value * 3 Year Average P/BV

= 828.39*2.00

=1656.78

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 61


10.) COST OF EQUITY CALCULATION

CAPM Calculation PERCENTAGES


RF 8.50%
Beta 1.39
RM 16.5%
Market premium 8.00%
Cost of equity capital 19.62%

11.) WACC CALCULATION

WACC CALCULATION PERCENTAGES


D/D+E 90.0%
E/D+E 10.0%
Er(d) 10.25%
Tax rate 32.0%
Er(e) 19.62%
Cost of capital 8.24%

12.) Discounting factor

=1/1+.0824

=0.92

13.) AXIS BANK Fair value

= FY14E projected Value of share* Discounting factor

=1524.2374 FY14E

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 62


II) HDFC BANK

HDFC Bank Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides a range of financial
products and services to individuals and businesses in India, as well as in Bahrain and
Hong Kong. The company operates in four segments: Retail Banking, Wholesale
Banking, Treasury, and Other Banking Operations. It offers various deposit products,
including savings accounts, salary accounts, current accounts, fixed and recurring
deposits, demat accounts, safe deposit lockers, and rural accounts, as well as foreign
currency deposits, accounts for returning Indians, and offshore accounts and deposits;
loan products comprising personal, business, home, car, two wheeler, educational, term,
and rural loans, as well as working capital and health care finance, and loans against
assets and government sponsored programs; credit, debit, and prepaid cards; and private
banking services. The company also provides export, import, remittance, travel, bank
guarantee and letter of credit, and other foreign exchange services; life, motor, travel, and
home insurance products; and investment banking services in the areas of equities and
derivatives, project appraisal, mutual funds, IPO, gold and silver investments, bonds,
structured finance, loan syndication and debt capital markets, equity placement, mergers
and acquisitions, corporate advisory services, and capital market advisory services. In
addition, it offers online and mobile banking, wealth, merchant and cash management,
foreign currency demand drafts, foreign currency cheque collection, and lock box
services. As of March 31, 2013, the company operated a network of 3,062 branches and
10,743 ATMs in 1,845 cities/towns. HDFC Bank Limited was founded in 1994 and is
based in Mumbai, India.

I)PROFITABILITY RATIO

A)Net profit margin (%)


Net profit margin = Net income/Sales revenue

year Net profit margin (%)

2012 15.93
2011 16.09
2010 14.76
2009 11.35
2008 12.82

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 63


Net profit margin (%)
20
15
10
Net profit margin (%)
5
0
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

INTERPRETATION

The above table shows that, HDFC Bank is having high Net Profit Margin of 16.09% during the
year 2011.

B) Dividend payout ratio (net profit)


Dividend payout ratio = Dividend per share / EPS * 100

year Dividend payout ratio (net profit)

2012 22.69
2011 22.72
2010 21.72
2009 22.16
2008 22.16

Dividend payout ratio (net profit)


23

22.5

22
Dividend payout ratio (net profit)
21.5

21
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 64


INTERPRETATION

The above table shows that, HDFC Bank is having high dividend payout ratio of 22.72% during
the year 2011.

C)Earning retention ratio


Retention ratio= (net income-dividends)/net income

year Earning retention ratio

2012 77.3
2011 77.29
2010 78.25
2009 77.79
2008 77.83

Earning retention ratio


78.5
78
77.5
Earning retention ratio
77
76.5
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

INTERPRETATION

The above table shows that, HDFC Bank is having high Retention ratio of 78.25 % during the
year 2010.

II MANAGEMENT EFFICIENCY RATIO

A) RETURN ON EQUITY
ROE=PAT/ Net worth
Net Worth = Share Capital + Reserve and Surplus

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 65


year ROE

2012 17.26
2011 15.47
2010 13.68
2009 15.29
2008 13.82

ROE
20

15

10
ROE

0
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

INTERPRETATION

The graph shows that, HDF C Bank is having high Return on equity of 17.26 % during the year
2012.

B) RETURN ON ASSET

RETURN ON ASSET= Net income/total asset

YEAR ROA
2011-2012 17.26
2010-2011 15.47
2009-2010 13.68
2008-2009 15.29
2007-2008 13.82

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 66


INTERPRETATION

From the above table it is clearly understood that there is a fluctuating growth in the ROA
for last five years and it reaches in the highest of 17.26 in 2012

III) GROWTH RATIO

A)EARNINGS PER SHARE RATIO


EPS=PAT/ Number of equity shares

YEAR EPS
2011-2012 22.02
2010-2011 84.4
2009-2010 64.42
2008-2009 52.77
2007-2008 44.87

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 67


EPS
100
80
60
40 EPS
20
0
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

INTERPRETATION

From the above table it is clearly understood that there is a fluctuating growth in the EPS
for last four years and it reaches in the highest of 84.4 in 2011.

B) PRICE EARNING RATIO


PE RATIO = Market Price Per Share/ EPS

YEAR PE Ratio
2011-2012 21.78
2010-2011 51.1
2009-2010 49.92
2008-2009 41.8
2007-2008 53.8

PE Ratio
60
50
40
30
PE Ratio
20
10
0
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 68


INTERPRETATION

From the above table it is clearly understood that there is a fluctuating growth in the PE
Ratio for last five years and it reaches in the highest of 53.8 in 2008.

IV) LEVARAGE RATIO

A) CURRENT RATIO

Current ratio =current asset/current liability

YEAR CURRENT RATIO


2011-2012 0.58
2010-2011 0.5
2009-2010 0.28
2008-2009 0.27
2007-2008 0.26

INTERPRETATION

From the above table it is clearly understood that there is a fluctuating growth in the
Current Ratio for last five years and it reaches in the highest of .58 in 2012.

B)DEBT/EQUTY RATIO

Debt/equty ratio = total liability/shareholders’ equity

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 69


YEAR Debt equity ratio

2011-2012 8.24

2010-2011 8.22

2009-2010 7.78

2008-2009 9.75

2007-2008 8.76

INTERPRETATION

From the above table it is clearly understood that there is a fluctuating growth in the debt
equity Ratio for last five years and it reaches in the highest of 9.75 in 2009.

V) PER SHARE RATIO

A)BOOK VALUE

BOOK VALUE = Net worth – Preference dividend / Total number of equity shares

YEAR Book value

2011-2012 127.52
2010-2011 545.53
2009-2010 470.19
2008-2009 344.44
2007-2008 324.38

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 70


Book value
600

400

200 Book value

0
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

INTERPRETATION

From the above table it is clearly understood that there is a fluctuating growth in the
Book value for last five years and it reaches in the highest of 545.53 in 2011.

B)DIVIDEND PER SHARE


Dividend per share=dps/eps

YEAR DIVIDEND PER SHARE


2011-2012 4.3
2010-2011 16.5
2009-2010 12
2008-2009 10
2007-2008 8.5

DPS
20
15
10
DPS
5
0
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 71


INTERPRETATION

From the above table it is clearly understood that there is a fluctuating growth in the DPS
for last five years and it reaches in the highest of 16.05 in 2011.

FAIR VALUE CALCULATION HDFC BANK

1.) REVENUE GROWTH

year revenue Average Last 3-yr average growth


Mar '09 19,802.89
Mar '10 19,983.52 0.903894809
Mar '11 24,361.72 17.97163747
Mar '12 32,619.76 25.31606609
Mar '13 41,917.49 22.18102754 21.82291037

2.) PAT margin

Net Profit/(Loss) For Last 3-yr average


year the Period revenue net profit margin growth in PAT
Mar '09 2,244.95 19,802.89 11.33647665
Mar '10 2,948.69 19,983.52 14.75560862
Mar '11 3,926.39 24,361.72 16.11704756
Mar '12 5,167.07 32,619.76 15.84030661
Mar '13 6,726.28 41,917.49 16.04647607 16.00127675

3.) Projected Revenue

= ((Last year revenue * Last 3-yr average growth)/100) + Last year revenue

= (41,917.49*21.82)/100

=9146.396318

=9146.396318+41,917.49

=51063.88632 FY14E

4.) Projected PAT

= (Projected Revenue * Last 3-yr average growth in PAT)

=(51063.88*16.00)/100

=8170.221 FY14E

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 72


5) Projected Dividend Payout

= Projected PAT * current year Dividend Payout

=8170.221 *22.76%

= 1859.735 FY14E

6.) No of Share

No of share in HDFCBANK: 2379419030

7.) Projected Book Value

= Addition this year

= Projected PAT- Projected Dividend Payout

=8170.221 – 1859.735

= 6311.333677

= per share

= (Addition this year*1, 00, 00,000)/no of share

= (6311.333*1, 00, 00,000)/ 2379419030

=26.52468353

=Current Book value

=152.2 FY 13

= Projected Book Value

= per share + Current Book value

=26.524 + 152.2

=178.724 FY14E

8.) 3 Year Average P/BV

= 3.895239719

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 73


9.) FY14E projected Value of share

= Projected Book Value * 3 Year Average P/BV

= 178.724 *3.895239719

=696.1754861

10.) COST OF EQUITY CALCULATION

CAPM Calculation PERCENTAGES


RF 8.50%
Beta 0.94
RM 16.5%
Market premium 8.00%
Cost of equity capital 16.02%

11.) WACC CALCULATION

WACC CALCULATION PERCENTAGES


D/D+E 90.00%
E/D+E 10.00%
Er(d) 10.25%
Tax rate 32.00%
Er(e) 16.02%
Cost of capital 7.875%

12.) Discounting factor

=1/1+.07875

=0.926998841

13.) HDFC BANK Fair value

= FY14E projected Value of share* Discounting factor

=645.35 FY14E

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 74


III) ICICI BANK

ICICI Bank Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking and financial
services to corporate and retail customers in 19 countries, including India. It primarily
offers commercial banking, retail banking, project and corporate finance, working
capital finance, insurance, venture capital and private equity, investment banking,
broking, and treasury products and services.

The company provides current and savings accounts, term deposits, fixed and
recurring deposits, outward remittances, and salary accounts; credit, debit, prepaid,
and corporate cards; and home, commercial vehicle, personal, and car loans, as well
as loans against securities. It also offers life, travel, health, car, two wheeler, home,
and student medical insurance products; demat accounts; and investment products,
such as mutual funds, gold, bonds, foreign exchange, and initial public offerings, as
well as senior citizens savings schemes. In addition, the company provides wealth
management products and services, including funds and investments, such as mutual
funds, portfolio management services, and alternative investments; lockers; and risk
protection, investment advisory and management, and shipment tracking services.
Further, it offers real estate services related to residential and commercial real estate,
joint venture structuring, and funding; direct equity; real estate funds; cash
management and trade services; mergers and acquisitions advisory and loan
syndication services; financial institutions, capital market, and custodial services; and
project and technology finance. Additionally, the company provides business loans
and vendor/dealer finance; transaction banking, trade, and private equity placement
services; and NRI, rural and agricultural, Internet, mobile, and phone banking
services. As of March 31, 2013, it had a network of 3,100 branches and 10,481 ATMs
in India. ICICI Bank Limited was founded in 1955 and is based in Mumbai, India.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 75


A) Net profit margin (%)
Net profit margin = Net income/Sales revenue

YEAR Net profit margin (%)

2012 16.14
2011 15.91
2010 12.17
2009 9.74
2008 10.51

Net profit margin (%)


20

15

10
Net profit margin (%)
5

0
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

INTERPRETATION

The above table shows that, ICICI Bank is having high Net Profit Margin of 16.14% during the
year 2012.

B) Dividend payout ratio (net profit)


Dividend payout ratio = Dividend per share / EPS * 100

Year Dividend payout ratio (net profit)

2012 32.82
2011 35.23
2010 37.31
2009 36.6
2008 33.12

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 76


Dividend payout ratio (net profit)
38
36
34
Dividend payout ratio (net profit)
32
30
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

INTERPRETATION

The above table shows that, ICICI Bank is having high dividend payout ratio of 37.31% during
the year 2010.

C) Earning retention ratio


Retention ratio= (net income-dividends)/net income

Year Earning retention ratio

2012 67.19
2011 64.49
2010 61.4
2009 63.23
2008 66.35

Earning retention ratio


68
66
64
62 Earning retention ratio
60
58
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

INTERPRETATION

The above table shows that, ICICI Bank is having high Retention ratio of 67.19 % during the
year 2012

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 77


II) MANAGEMENT EFFICIENCY RATIO

A) RETURN ON EQUITY

Roe=pat/ net worth


Net Worth = Share Capital + Reserve and Surplus
Year ROE
2012 10.7
2011 9.35
2010 7.79
2009 7.58
2008 8.94

ROE
15
10
5 ROE

0
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

Interpretation

From the above table it is clearly understood that there is a fluctuating growth in the
ROE for last five years and it reaches in the highest of 10.07 in 2012.

B) RETURN ON ASSET

Return on asset= Net income/total asset

YEAR ROA
2011-2012 10.7
2010-2011 9.35
2009-2010 7.79
2008-2009 7.58
2007-2008 8.94

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 78


Interpretation

From the above table it is clearly understood that there is a fluctuating growth in the ROA
for last five years and it reaches in the highest of 10.07 in 2012

III) GROWTH RATIO

A) EARNINGS PER SHARE

EPS = PAT/ Number of equity shares

YEAR EPS
2011-2012 56.09
2010-2011 44.73
2009-2010 36.1
2008-2009 33.76
2007-2008 37.37

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 79


EPS
60

50

40

30
EPS
20

10

0
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

Interpretation

From the above table it is clearly understood that there is a continues growth in the EPS
for the last four years and it reaches in the highest of 56.09 in 2012

B) ) PRICE EARNING RATIO


PE RATIO=Market Price Per Share/ EPS

YEAR PE RATIO

2011-2012 16.5
2010-2011 22.79
2009-2010 22.04
2008-2009 15.84
2007-2008 27.41

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 80


PE RATIO
30

25

20

15
PE
10

0
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

Interpretation

From the above table it is clearly understood that there is a fluctuating growth in the PE
Ratio for last five years and it reaches in the highest of 27.41 in 2008.

IV) LEVARGE RATIO

A) CURRENT RATIO

CURRENT RATIO =CURRENT ASSET/CURRENT LIABILITY

YEAR CURRENT RATIO


2011-2012 1.97
2010-2011 1.73
2009-2010 1.94
2008-2009 0.78
2007-2008 0.72

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 81


INTERPRETATION

From the above table it is clearly understood that there is a fluctuating growth in the
Current Ratio for last five years and it reaches in the highest of 1.97 in 2012.

B)DEBT/EQUTY RATIO

DEBT/EQUTY RATIO = TOTAL LIABILITY/SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY

YEAR Debt equity ratio


2011-2012 4.23
2010-2011 4.1
2009-2010 3.91
2008-2009 4.42
2007-2008 5.27

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 82


INTERPRETATION

From the above table it is clearly understood that there is a fluctuating growth in the debt
equity Ratio for last five years and it reaches in the highest of 5.27 in 2008.

V) PER SHARE RATIO

A) BOOK VALUE

BOOK VALUE= Net worth – Preference dividend / Total number of equity shares

YEAR Book value

2011-2012 524.01
2010-2011 578.31
2009-2010 463.01
2008-2009 444.94
2007-2008 417.64

Book value
700
600
500
400
300 Book value
200
100
0
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

Interpretation

From the above table it is clearly understood that there is a fluctuating growth in the
Book value for last five years and it reaches in the highest of 578.31 in 2011.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 83


B) DIVIDEND PER SHARE
DIVIDEND PER SHARE=DPS/EPS

YEAR DPS
2011-2012 16.5
2010-2011 14
2009-2010 12
2008-2009 11
2007-2008 11

DPS
20

15

10
DPS
5

0
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

Interpretation
From the above table it is clearly understood that there is a continues growth in the DPS
for last five years and it reaches in the highest of 16.65 in 2012

FAIR VALUE CALCULATION ICICI BANK

1.) REVENUE GROWTH

year Revenue Average Last 3-yr average growth


Mar '09 39,210.31
Mar '10 32,999.36 -18.82142563
Mar '11 33,082.96 0.252698066
Mar '12 41,450.75 20.18730662
Mar '13 48,421.30 14.39562754 11.61187741

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 84


2.) PAT margin

Net Profit/(Loss) For Last 3-yr average


year the Period revenue net profit margin growth in PAT
Mar '09 3,758.13 39,210.31 9.584545493
Mar '10 4,024.98 32,999.36 12.19714564
Mar '11 5,151.38 33,082.96 15.57109763
Mar '12 6,465.26 41,450.75 15.59744999
Mar '13 8,325.47 48,421.30 17.1938176 16.1207884

3.) Projected Revenue

= ((Last year revenue * Last 3-yr average growth)/100) + Last year revenue

= (48,421.30*11.6187)/100

=5625.92

=48.421.30+5625.92

= 54043.922 FY14E

4.) Projected PAT

= (Projected Revenue * Last 3-yr average growth in PAT)

= (54043.92*16.1207)/100

= 8712.30631 FY14E

5) Projected Dividend Payout

= Projected PAT * current year Dividend Payout

=8712.30631 *31.22%

= 2719.98203 FY14E

6.) No of Share

No of share in ICICIBANK: 1153581715

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 85


7.) Projected Book Value

= Addition this year

= Projected PAT- Projected Dividend Payout

=8712.30631 – 2719.98203

= 5992.32428

= per share

= (Addition this year*1, 00, 00,000)/no of share

= (5992.32428*1, 00, 00,000)/ 1153581715

=51.94538195

=Current Book value

=578.21 FY 13

= Projected Book Value

= per share + Current Book value

=51.94538195 +578.21

=630.155382 FY14E

8.) 3 Year Average P/BV

= 1.973682995

9.) FY14E projected Value of share

= Projected Book Value * 3 Year Average P/BV

= 630.155382 * 1.973682995

= 1243.726961

10.) COST OF EQUITY CALCULATION

CAPM Calculation PERCENTAGES


RF 8.5%
Beta 1.69
RM 16.5%
Market premium 8%
Cost of equity capital 22.02%

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 86


11.) WACC CALCULATION

WACC CALCULATION PERCENTAGES


D/D+E 87%
E/D+E 13%
Er(d) 10.25%
Tax rate 32%
Er(e) 22.02%
Cost of capital 89.593%

12.) Discounting factor

=1/1+.089593

=0.917773844

13.) ICICI BANK Fair value

= FY14E projected Value of share* Discounting factor

=1243.726961*0.917773844

= 1141.460074 FY14E

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 87


IV) YES BANK

Yes Bank Limited provides banking and financial services in India and
internationally. The company operates through Treasury, Corporate/Wholesale
Banking, Retail Banking, and Other Banking Operations segments. The company
offers corporate banking and commercial banking services, including working capital
finance, specialized corporate finance, trade, cash management and transactional
services, treasury services, investment banking solutions, and liquidity management
solutions. It also provides financial services to corporate, multinational corporations,
central and state government undertakings and agencies, financial institutions, and
capital market participants. In addition, the company offers debt, trade finance, and
financial advisory services to international customers. Further, the company provides
business banking services to small and medium businesses; and retail banking
products, including car loans, commercial vehicle loans, inventory finance, home
loans, education loans, personal loans, salary overdraft, loan against property, and
loan against shares. Additionally, it offers transaction banking comprising cash
management services; liabilities, cards, and direct banking services; trade finance
services; and capital markets, escrow account, and securities services, as well as
financial market products and services.

The company also provides infrastructure banking and project finance, structured
finance, realty banking, project advisory, and syndications to corporate customers;
and investment banking services, including mergers and acquisitions, joint venture
advisory services, private equity placement, and merchant banking services. As of
March 31, 2013, it operated 430 branches covering 275 cities in India. The company
also operates 951 ATMs; and 2 national operating centers. Yes Bank Limited was
incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Mumbai, India.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 88


I)PROFITABILITY RATIO

A) Net profit margin (%)


Net profit margin = Net income/Sales revenue

year Net profit margin (%)

2012 13.66
2011 15.56
2010 16.3
2009 12.35
2008 12.01

Net profit margin (%)


20

15

10
Net profit margin (%)
5

0
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

INTERPRETATION

The above table shows that, YES Bank is having high Net Profit Margin of 16.3% during the
year 2010.

B) Dividend payout ratio (net profit)

Dividend payout ratio = Dividend per share / EPS * 100

year Dividend payout ratio (net profit)

2012 16.79
2011 13.91
2010 12.47
2009 -
2008 -

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 89


Dividend payout ratio (net profit)
20

15

10
Dividend payout ratio (net profit)
5

0
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

INTERPRETATION

The above table shows that, YES Bank is having high dividend payout ratio of 16.79% during
the year 2012.

C) Earning retention ratio


Retention ratio=(net income-dividends)/net income

year Earning retention ratio

2012 83.23
2011 86.1
2010 87.54
2009 100
2008 100

Earning retention ratio


120
100
80
60
Earning retention ratio
40
20
0
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

INTERPRETATION

The above table shows that, YES Bank is having high Retention ratio of 100 % during the year
2008 & 2009
PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 90
II) MANAGEMENT EFFICIENCY RATIO

A) RETURN ON EQUITY RATIO

ROE =PAT/ Net worth


Net Worth = Share Capital + Reserve and Surplus

year ROE
2012 20.92
2011 19.16
2010 15.46
2009 18.7
2008 15.6

return on equity
25

20

15

return on equity
10

0
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

Interpretation

The above table shows that, YES Bank is having high Return on equity of 20.92 % during the
year 2012

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 91


B) RETURN ON ASSET

RETURN ON ASSET= Net income/total asset

YEAR ROA
2011-2012 20.92
2010-2011 19.17
2009-2010 15.48
2008-2009 18.71
2007-2008 15.16

INTERPRETATION

The above graph shows that, YES Bank is having high Return on Asset of 20.92 % during the
year 2012

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 92


III) GROWTH RATIO

A) EARNINGS PER SHARE RATIO

EPS= PAT/ Number of equity shares

YEAR EPS
2011-2012 27.68
2010-2011 20.95
2009-2010 14.06
2008-2009 10.23
2007-2008 6.76

EPS
30

25

20

15
EPS
10

0
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

Interpretation

From the above table it is clearly understood that there is a continues growth in the EPS
for last four years and it reaches in the highest of 27.68 in 2012.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 93


B)PRICE EARNING RATIO
PE RATIO = Market Price Per Share/ EPS

YEAR PE RATIO
2011-2012 11.22
2010-2011 14.24
2009-2010 14.12
2008-2009 9.69
2007-2008 27.28

PE Ratio
30

25

20

15
PE Ratio
10

0
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

Interpretation

From the above table it is clearly understood that there is a fluctuating growth in the PE
Ratio for last five years and it reaches in the highest of 27.28 in 2008.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 94


IV) LEVARAGE RATIO

A)CURRENT RATIO

CURRENT RATIO =CURRENT ASSET/CURRENT LIABILITY

YEAR CURRENT RATIO


2011-2012 0.73
2010-2011 0.84
2009-2010 0.68
2008-2009 0.45
2007-2008 0.51

INTERPRETATION

From the above table it is clearly understood that there is a fluctuating growth in the
Current Ratio for last five years and it reaches in the highest of .84 in 2011.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 95


B)DEBT/EQUTY RATIO

DEBT/EQUTY RATIO = TOTAL LIABILITY/SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY

YEAR Debt equity ratio


2011-2012 10.51
2010-2011 12.11
2009-2010 8.67
2008-2009 9.96
2007-2008 10.06

INTERPRETATION

From the above table it is clearly understood that there is a fluctuating growth in the debt
equity Ratio for last five years and it reaches in the highest of 12.11 in 2011.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 96


V) PER SHARE RATIO

1) BOOK VALUE
BOOK VALUE = Net worth – Preference dividend / Total number of equity shares

YEAR Book value


2011-2012 132.49
2010-2011 109.29
2009-2010 90.96
2008-2009 54.69
2007-2008 44.59

Book value
140

120

100

80

60 Book value

40

20

0
20112 2011 2010 2009 2008

Interpretation
From the above table it is clearly understood that there is a continues growth in the Book
value for last four years and it reaches in the highest of 132.49 in 2012.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 97


B)DIVIDEND PER SHARE
DIVIDEND PER SHARE=DPS/EPS

YEAR DPS
2011-2012 4
2010-2011 2.5
2009-2010 1.5
2008-2009 _
2007-2008 _

DPS
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2 DPS

1.5
1
0.5
0
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

Interpretation

From the above table it is clearly understood that there is a continues growth in the DPS
for last three years and it reaches in the highest of 4 in 2012 and there is 0 DPS in the
year 2008 and 2009.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 98


FAIR VALUE CALCULATION YES BANK

1.) REVENUE GROWTH

year revenue Average Last 3-yr average growth


Mar '09 2,438.34
Mar '10 2,945.24 17.21
Mar '11 4,665.02 36.87
Mar '12 7,164.48 34.89
Mar '13 9,551.43 24.99 32.25

2.) PAT margin

Net Profit/(Loss) For Last 3-yr average


year the Period revenue net profit margin growth in PAT
Mar '09 303.84 2,438.34 12.46
Mar '10 477.74 2,945.24 16.22
Mar '11 727.13 4,665.02 15.59
Mar '12 976.99 7,164.48 13.64
Mar '13 1,300.68 9,551.43 13.62 14.28

3.) Projected Revenue

= ((Last year revenue * Last 3-yr average growth)/100) + Last year revenue

= (9,551.43*32.25)/100

=3080.33

=9551.43+3080.33

=12631.54 FY14E

4.) Projected PAT

= (Projected revenue * Last 3-yr average growth in PAT)

= (12631.54 *14.28)/100

=1803.83 FY14E

5) Projected Dividend Payout

= Projected PAT * current year Dividend Payout

=1803.83 *19.22%

=346.70 FY14E

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 99


6.) No of Share

No of share in YESBANK: 358622289

7.) Projected Book Value

= Addition this year

= Projected PAT- Projected Dividend Payout

=1803.83 – 346.70

=1457.13

= per share

= (Addition this year*1, 00, 00,000)/no of share

= (1457.13*1, 00, 00,000)/ 358622289

=40.63

=Current Book value

=161.94 FY 13

= Projected Book Value

= per share + Current Book value

=40.63 + 161.94

=202.57 FY14E

8.) 3 Year Average P/BV

=2.89

9.) FY14E projected Value of share

= Projected Book Value * 3 Year Average P/BV

= 202.57*2.89

=584.44

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 100
10.) COST OF EQUITY CALCULATION

CAPM Calculation PERCENTAGES


RF 8.50%
Beta 1.80
RM 16.5%
Market premium 8.00%
Cost of equity capital 22.90%

11.) WACC CALCULATION

WACC CALCULATION PERCENTAGES


D/D+E 93.8%
E/D+E 6.2%
Er(d) 10.25%
Tax rate 32.0%
Er(e) 22.90%
Cost of capital 7.96%

12.) Discounting factor

=1/1+.0796

=0.93

13.) YES BANK Fair value

= FY14E projected Value of share* Discounting factor

=541.34 FY14E

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 101
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

I) AXIS BANK(AS PER 8/7/2013)

II) HDFC BANK(AS PER 8/7/2013)

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 102
III) ICICIBANK(AS PER 8/7/2013)

IV) YESBANK(AS PER 8/7/2013)

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 103
CHAPTER6
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 104
SUMMARY OF THE STUDY

A project was done at” HEDGE EQUITIES LTD” on the topic “A study on Fundamental
Analysis of selected companies in banking sector”. Hedge equities is one of the foremost stock
broker firm in south India which started functioning its operation in the stock market in the year
2012.ial The main aim of the company is to act as a financial for the investors.

The main objective of my study is to understand the performance, growth and financial analysis
of the top four companies in the banking sector. Duration of the study was from 15/4/2013 to
30/5/2013. For the purpose of the study, Fundamental analysis method is used. Fundamental
analysis includes the analysis of economic, industry and the company as s whole. My study was
confined to only four companies namely; AXISBANK, HDFCBANK, ICICIBANK &
YESBANK

For carrying out the study, both primary and secondary dada were used. The primary data and
was collected though personal interview with research head and other officials of hedge equities
and also employees of hedge school. The secondary data was collected from the company
brochures, reports. Web page of NSE, BSE and also website of different companies.

I was given this study by hedge equities because it was felt that the study will be useful since the
market showed a bearish trend during the period of the study .with help of this study the
investors can decide whether it is wise to invest in the market in selected companies, and also
knows about growth of these companies and financial soundness, efficiency of the sector.

FINDINGS

As per the objectives set and the analysis done on the fundamental analysis of
BANKING sector the following are the major findings:

Economy Analysis.

India's economic confidence grew by 8 points to 68 per cent in the month of January 2013 as
compared to December 2012, making it the second most economically confident country in the
world, according to a survey titled 'Ipsos Economic Pulse of the World'. India's services sector

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 105
has emerged as a prominent sector in terms of its contribution to national and state incomes, a
comparison of the services performance done across the top 15 countries over the 11 year period
from 2001 to 2011. India stood first in terms of increase in share of services in the gross
domestic product (GDP) with 8.1 per cent, among top 15 countries during 2001-2011.

Moreover, India was among the top 20 real estate investment markets globally with investment
volume of Rs 190 billion (US$ 3.46 billion) recorded in 2012, according to Cushman &
Wakefield's report ‘International Investment Atlas’. India is also expected to be the second
largest manufacturing country globally in the next five years, followed by Brazil as the third
ranked country, according to Deloitte.

The Economic Scenario

India is expected to record 6.1 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the current
fiscal. The growth is expected to increase further to 6.7 per cent in 2014-15, according to the
World Bank's latest India Development Update, a bi-annual report on the Indian economy.
While, the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Panel expects the economic growth rate to
increase to 6.4 per cent in 2013-14 from 5 per cent during 2012-13, on back of improvement in
performance of agriculture and manufacturing sectors. Indian manufacturing and services sectors
expanded more than China in February 2013, according to a survey by HSBC. The HSBC
composite index for India for manufacturing and services stood at 54.8 in February 2013,
whereas it was 51.4 for China.

Industry Analysis

 The present Rs 64 trillion (US$ 1.17 trillion) Indian banking industry is


governed by the Banking Regulation Act of India, (1949) and is closely
monitored by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). RBI manages the
country's money supply and foreign exchange and also serves as a bank
for the Government of India and for the country's commercial banks. As

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 106
of now, public sector banks account for 70 per cent of the Indian banking
assets.
 Liberal policies, Government support and huge development in other
economic segments have made the Indian banking industry more
progressive and inclusive with regard to global banking standards.
 According to an IBA-FICCI-BCG report, India’s gross domestic product
(GDP) growth will make the Indian banking industry the third largest in
the world by 2025. According to the report, the domestic banking
industry is set for an exponential growth in coming years with its assets
size poised to touch USD 28,500 billion by the turn of the 2025.
 The banking sector is highly correlated with the economy of the country.
The GDP growth is estimated at 7.6 per cent for FY13, so the economy is
expected to recover and be back on the growth track in FY13. This will
also result in the banking space witnessing a spurt in growth in business
next fiscal.
 Increasing disposable income and increasing exposure to a range of
products, have led consumers towards a higher willingness to take credit,
particularly, young customers.
 Increasing spread of mobile banking, which is expected to become the
second largest channel for banking after ATMs, will accelerate growth of
the sector
 Financial Inclusion Program: Currently, in India, 41% of the adult
population doesn’t have bank accounts, which indicates a large untapped
market for banking players. Under the Financial Inclusion Program, RBI
is trying to tap this untapped market and the growth potential in rural
markets by volume growth for banks.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 107
 The Indian economy will require additional banks, and expansion of
existing banks to meet its credit needs.

Company Analysis

AXISBANK

Strengths
 Axis bank has been given the rating as one of top three positions in terms of fastest growth in private sector
banks
 Financial express has given number two position and BT-KPMG has rated AXIS bank as the best bank with
some 26 parameters
 The bank has a network of 1,947 domestic branches and 11,245 ATMs
 The bank has its presence in 971 cities and towns
 The banks financial positions grows at a rate of 29.52% y-o-y which is a major positive sign for any bank
 The company’s net profit is Q3FY13 is 5179.43cr which has a increase of15.35% growth compared to 2012
Weaknesses
 Gaps – Majorly they concentrated in corporate, wholesale banking, treasury services, retail banking
 Foreign branches constitute only 8% of total assets
 Very recently the bank started focusing its attention towards personal banking and rural areas
 The share rates of AXIS bank is constantly fluctuating in higher margins which makes investors in an
uncomfortable position most of the time
 There are lot of financial product gaps in terms of performance as well as reaching out to the customer
 There are many fraudulent activities involved in credit cards as the banks process credit card approval even
without verification of original documents
 Their financial consultants are not wise enough to guide the customers towards right investments
 Customer service has to improve a lot in order to be in race with other major players
Opportunities
 Acquisitions to fill gap
 In 2009, Alliance with Motilal Oswal for online trading for 10 million customers
 In 2010, acquired Enam Securities Pvt Ltd – broking and investment banking
 In Sep 2009, SEBI approved Axis Asset Management Co. for mutual fund business
 No. of e-transactions increased from 0.7 million to around 2 million
 Geographical expansion to rural market – 80% of them have no access to formal lending
 46% use informal lending channels
 24% unregulated money lenders
 Now number of branches increased to 1947.
 largest ATM network among private banks in India
 Since it’s a new age banking there are lot of opportunities to have the advance technicalities in banking
solutions compared to existing major players

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 108
 The assets in their international operations are growing at a very faster pace with a growth rate of 9%.
 The concept of ETM (Everywhere teller machine) by AXIS Bank had a good response in terms of attracting new
customers in personal banking segment
 In 2013, RBI has decreased CRR to 4% from 5%.
 Decreased repo rate & reverse repo rate by 50 points.

Threats
 Increasing popularity of QIPs due to ease in fund raising.
 New banking license norms of RBI.
 RBI allowed foreign banks to invest up to 74% in Indian banking
 Government schemes are most often serviced only by govern banks like SBI ,Indian Banks, Punjab National
Bank etc
 ICICI and HDFC are imposing strong threats in terms of their expansion in customer base by their aggressive
marketing strategies

ICICIBANK

Strengths of ICICI Bank


 ICICI is the second largest bank in terms of total assets and market share
 Total assets of ICICI is Rs. 536,794.69 cr and recorded a maximum profit after tax of Rs. 8,325.47 cr and
located in 19 countries
 One of the major strength of ICICI bank according to financial analysts is its strong and transparent balance
sheet
 ICICI bank has first mover advantage in many of the banking and financial services. ICICI bank is the first bank
in India to introduce complete mobile banking solutions and jewelry card
 The bank has presence in 19 countries and around 3,350 branches and 10,486 ATM’s
 ICICI bank is the first bank in India to attach life style benefits to banking services for exclusive purchases and
tie-ups with best brands in the industry such as Nakshatra, Asmi, D’damas etc
 ICICI bank has the longest working hours and additional services offering at ATM’s which attracts customers
 Marketing and advertising strategies of ICICI have good reach compared to other banks in India
Weaknesses of ICICI Bank
 Customer support of ICICI section is not performing well in terms of resolving complaints
 There are lot of consumer complaints filed against ICICI
 The ICICI bank has the most stringent policies in terms of recovering the debts and loans, and credit payments.
They employ third party agency to handle recovery management
 There are also complaints of customer assault and abuse while recovering and the credit payment reminders
are sent even before the deadlines which annoys the customers
 The bank service charges are comparatively higher
 The employees of ICICI are bank in maximum stress because of the aggressive policies of the management to
win ahead in the race. This may result in less productivity in future years

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 109
Opportunities of ICICI Bank
 Banking sector is grow at a rate of 24% yoy.
 The concept of saving in banks and investing in financial products is increasing in rural areas as more than 62%
percentage of India’s population is still in rural areas.
 As per 2010 data in TOI, the total number b-schools in India are more than 1500. This can ensure regular
supply of trained human power in financial products and banking services
 Small and non performing banks can be acquired by ICICI because of its financial strength
 ICICI bank is expected to have 20% credit growth in the coming years.
 ICICI bank has the minimum amount of nonperforming assets
Threats of ICICI Bank
 RBI allowed foreign banks to invest up to 74% in Indian banking
 Government sector banks are in urge of modernizing the capacities to ensure the customers switching to new
age banks are minimized
 HDFC is the major competitor for ICICI, and other upcoming banks like AXIS, HSBC impose a major threat
 In rural areas the micro financing groups hold a major share
 Though customer acquisition is high on one side, the unsatisfied customers are increasing and make them to
switch to other banks

HDFCBANK

Strengths
 HDFC bank is the largest private bank by market capitalization in India.
 HDFC bank is the second largest private banking sector in India having 3,062 branches and 10,743ATM’s
 HDFC bank is located in 1,568 cities in India and has more than 800 locations to serve customers through
Telephone banking
 The bank’s ATM card is compatible with all domestic and international Visa/Master card, Visa Electron/
Maestro, Plus/cirus and American Express. This is one reason for HDFC cards to be the most preferred card for
shopping and online transactions
 HDFC bank has the high degree of customer satisfaction when compared to other private banks
 The attrition rate in HDFC is low and it is one of the best places to work in private banking sector
 HDFC has lots of awards and recognition, it has received ‘Best Bank’ award from various financial rating
institutions like Dun and Bradstreet, Financial express, Euromoney awards for excellence, Finance Asia country
awards etc
 HDFC has good financial advisors in terms of guiding customers towards right investments
Weakness
 HDFC bank doesn’t have strong presence in Rural areas, where as ICICI bank its direct competitor is expanding
in rural market
 HDFC cannot enjoy first mover advantage in rural areas. Rural people are hard core loyals in terms of banking
services.
 HDFC lacks in aggressive marketing strategies like ICICI

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 110
 The bank focuses mostly on high end clients
 Some of the bank’s product categories lack in performance and doesn’t have reach in the market
 The share prices of HDFC are often fluctuating causing uncertainty for the investors
Opportunities
 HDFC bank has better asset quality parameters over government banks, hence the profit growth is likely to
increase
 The companies in large and SME are growing at very fast pace. HDFC has good reputation in terms of
maintaining corporate salary accounts
 HDFC bank has improved it’s bad debts portfolio and the recovery of bad debts are high when compared to
government banks
 HDFC has very good opportunities in abroad
 Greater scope for acquisitions and strategic alliances due to strong financial position
Threats
 The non banking financial companies and new age banks are increasing in India
 The HDFC is not able to expand its market share as ICICI imposes major threat
 The government banks are trying to modernize to compete with private banks
 RBI has opened up to 74% for foreign banks to invest in Indian market

YESBANK

STRENGTHS:
 The capital adequacy ratio of YBL at 18.30% is well above minimum requirements of 9% which
Supports the long term soundness and sustainability of its business.
 YBL's annualized RoA has been at or above 1.5% over last 3 years and its annualized RoE has been
at or above 20% over last 4 years. This stands in testimony to the bank’s lucrative business model.
 Over the years, YBL has brought down the cost to income ratios to 36%-38%,, which is far below the
Industry average Cost to income ratio of approx 45% and retains high profitability per employee as compared to
peers.

WEAKNESSES:

 Although YBL has made significant strides over the last few years, it is still a very small player in
the banking space. It suffers from low market share as its network of branches (~360) is still
Relatively smaller than its peers in both the public and private sector.
 Being a new Bank in the industry, YBL’s brand awareness among retail customers is lower than
its peers who have been in the business for significantly longer time.
 YBL also has a relatively lower Current and Saving Account (CASA) base against its peers due to
higher exposure to corporate banking.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 111
OPPORTUNITIES:
 Savings rate deregulation by the RBI has offered YBL an opportunity to gain significant savings
account market share by offering better rates and services to customers.
 YBL’s entry into new product or segments like retail assets offers significant potential for the
Bank to build on its expanding custom base. The ability to cross sell product to retail customers
would enhance profitability of the Bank over the long run.
 The large middle class population of India, with increasing incomes and banking needs along with a
huge unbanked population below the age of 25 offers an enormous retail opportunity for banks in
India. Smaller towns and rural India still provide a huge untapped potential for expansion

THREATS
 The tight monetary policy adopted by the RBI with a view to tame inflation could dampen
corporate credit off take. Overall business could also be impacted due to reduction in asset quality
and rise in NPAs.
 Expansion may lead to increase in costs and overall reduction in operating profit accompanied
by a decrease in quality of assets with exposure to retail in the future.
 Recent regulatory changes including revised priority sector norms, adoption of BASEL III
norms could result in lower profitability for the banking system in general, thereby also
impacting YBL.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 112
RANKING
PROFITABILTY RATIOS
AXISBANK HDFCBANK ICICIBANK YESBANK
NET PROFIT MARGIN 2 3 4 1
DIVIDENT PAYOUT RATIO 2 3 4 1
EARNING RETENSION RATIO 3 2 1 4

TOTAL 7 8 5 6
MANAGEMENT EFFICIENCY RATIO
RETURN ON EQUITY 3 2 1 4
RETURN ON ASSET 3 2 1 4
TOTAL 6 4 2 8
GROWTH RATIO
EPS 4 1 3 2
PE 1 4 3 2
TOTAL 5 5 6 4
LEVAARAGE RATIO
CURRENT RATIO 3 1 4 2
DEBT EQUITY RATIO 3 2 1 4

TOTAL 6 3 5 6
PER SHARE RATIO
BOOK VALUE 4 1 3 2
DPS 4 2 3 1
TOTAL 8 3 6 3

TOTAL SCORE 35 23 27 27

RANKING 1 3 2 2

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 113
SUGGESTIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The following are the major suggestions and recommendations:

 Fundamentally First preference TO BUY AXISBANK THEN


ICICIBANK,YESBANK,HDFCBANK RESPETIVELY
 Hold on or buy decision is given for the AXIS BANK because there may be
increase in price of market value of share in future AND WITH A TARGET
OF RS 1530.
Those who holding this stock they can value average this stock @ 960
levels because of strong SUPPROT at this levels
 Hold on or buy decision is given for the HDFC BANK because there may be
increase in price of market value of share in future AND WITH A TARGET
OF RS 645.
Those who holding this stock they can value average this stock @ 555
levels because of strong SUPPORT at this levels
 Hold on or buy decision is given for the ICICI BANK because there may be
increase in price of market value of share in future AND WITH A TARGET
OF RS1141.
Those who holding this stock they can value average this stock @ 780
levels because of strong SUPPORT at this levels
 Hold on or buy decision is given for the YES BANK because there may be
increase in price of market value of share in future AND WITH A TARGET
OF RS 541.
Those who holding this stock they can value average this stock @ 230
levels because of strong SUPPORT at this levels

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 114
CONCLUSION
The fundamental analysis of banking sectors in India was a very relevant topic on
account of the increased investor interest in markets and there for rational
investment behavior.
There is always a need to study and analyze share before investing in to the share.
Fundamental analysis studies the fundamental aspects of the economy, industry
and the company as a whole.

The analysis revealed the growing prospects of the Indian economy after the major
hit. The position of the banking sector in the economy and the main private
companies are studied. Investor can arrive at rational decisions and avoid
unnecessary losses if they make fundamental analysis.

Nowadays majority of the stock brokers use this technique, along with the others
to advice clients on investment matters. The exercised proved fruitful as it opened
our eyes to the reality of the stock market and the sector under study as well as the
prospective to be invested.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 115
ANNAXURE

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 116
BIBLOGRAPHY

BOOKS

 Kothari, C.R, “Research Methodology Methods and Techniques”, New Age International
Publishers,Delhi,Second Edition 2004
 Pandian,Punithavathy,”Security Analysis and Portfolio Management”,Vikas Publishing
House Pvt Ltd,New Delhi
 Prasannachandra,”Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management”, Tata McGraw-Hill
Publishers,2008.

WEBSITES

 http://www.nseindia.com
 http://www.moneycontrole.com/stocksmarketsindia/
 http://www.in.finance.yahoo.com
 http://www.money.rediff.com/
 http://www.livemint.com
 http://www.hedgeequities.com
 http://www.investopedia.com
 http://www.wikiepedia.com
 Other official websites of AXISBANK,HDFCBANK,ICICIBANK & YESBANK.

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 117
Balance work
ANAXTURE
 RSI CALULATION
 MOVING AVG CALCULATION
RESULTS
BALANCESHEET
P&L
CASH FLOWS

PROJECT REPORT ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FOUR BANKING SCRIPS 118

Vous aimerez peut-être aussi