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MAD 1.23
1 49.0483 0.0483 49
2 49.0836 0.0836 49
3 49.1189 1.1189 49
4 49.1542 0.1542 48.4
5 49.1895 0.8105 48.76
6 49.2248 0.7752 49.504
7 49.2601 1.2601 49.8016
8 49.2954 0.2954 48.72064
9 49.3307 0.6693 48.888256
10 49.366 1.634 49.5553024
11 49.4013 2.0987 50.42212096
12 49.4366 0.9366 51.068848384
13 49.4719 1.4719 49.5275393536
14 49.5072 0.5072 48.6110157414
15 49.5425 0.5425 48.8444062966
16 49.5778 0.4222 48.9377625186
17 49.6131 49.5751050075
ERROR
0
1
0.6
1.24
HAMBURGUESA DE CARNE PROMEDIO MOVIL 3 MESES
0.496 PROMEDIO MOVIL 6 MESES PROMEDIO PONDERADO 3 MESES
1.8016 PRONÓSTICO RL PRONÓSTICO SE
0.27936 52
1.111744
1.4446976 51
1.07787904
50
2.568848384
1.5275393536 49
0.3889842586
0.1555937034 48
1.0622374814
47
46
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
0.9836322547
PRONÓSTICO RL
52
51
50
f(x) = 0.0352941176x + 49.0125
49
48
47
46
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
PRONÓSTICOS DE DEMANDA PARA HAMBURGUESAS DE POLLO
MAD 2.10
1 39.5079 4.5079 35
2 39.4528 1.4528 35 3
3 39.3977 1.3977 36.8 1.2
4 39.3426 0.3426 37.52 1.48
5 39.2875 2.7125 38.408 3.592
6 39.2324 1.7676 40.5632 0.4368
7 39.1773 2.8227 40.82528 1.17472
8 39.1222 0.1222 41.530112 2.530112
9 39.0671 1.9329 40.0120448 0.9879552
10 39.012 2.988 40.60481792 1.39518208
11 38.9569 4.0431 41.441927168 1.55807283
12 38.9018 0.5982 42.3767708672 2.87677087
13 38.8467 2.8467 40.6507083469 4.65070835
14 38.7916 2.7916 37.8602833388 1.86028334
15 38.7365 1.7365 36.7441133355 0.25588666
16 38.6814 1.6814 36.8976453342 0.10235467
17 38.6263 36.9590581337
PRONÓSTICO H. POLLO
50
40
f(x) = - 0.0551470588x + 39.5625
30
20
10
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
MAD 0.69
1 15.6476 0.3524 16
2 15.6822 0.1822 16 0.5
3 15.7168 0.2832 15.7 0.3
4 15.7514 0.2486 15.88 0.12
5 15.786 1.214 15.952 1.048
6 15.8206 0.1794 16.5808 0.5808
7 15.8552 0.8552 16.23232 1.23232
8 15.8898 0.1102 15.492928 0.507072
9 15.9244 0.9244 15.7971712 0.7971712
10 15.959 0.959 15.31886848 0.31886848
11 15.9936 1.4936 15.127547392 0.627547392
12 16.0282 0.0282 14.7510189568 1.2489810432
13 16.0628 0.0628 15.5004075827 0.4995924173
14 16.0974 0.9026 15.8001630331 1.1998369669
15 16.132 0.368 16.5200652132 0.0200652132
16 16.1666 0.8334 16.5080260853 0.4919739147
17 16.2012 16.8032104341
14 15
13.5 14.5
13 14
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
13.5
13
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
PRONÓSTICO PAPAS AL HILO
PROMEDIO MOVIL 6 MESES
MESES PRONÓSTICO SE
10 12 14 16 18 20
PRONÓSTICOS DE DEMANDA PARA PANCHOS
PROMEDIO PROMEDIO
MOVIL 3 ERROR MOVIL 6
PERÍODOS PRONÓSTICO PANCHOS MESES MESES
Jan-18 13
Feb-18 12.5
Mar-18 13
Apr-18 13 12.8 0.2
May-18 15 12.8 2.2
Jun-18 15 13.7 1.3
Jul-18 15 14.3 0.7 13.6
Aug-18 15 15.0 0.0 13.9
Sep-18 16 15.0 1.0 14.3
Oct-18 15 15.3 0.3 14.8
Nov-18 15 15.3 0.3 15.2
Dec-18 13 15.3 2.3 15.2
Jan-19 12.5 14.3 1.8 14.8
Feb-19 13 13.5 0.5 14.4
Mar-19 15 12.8 2.2 14.1
Apr-19 15 13.5 1.5 13.9
May-19 14.3 13.9
PRONÓSTICO PA
18
16
14 f(x) = 0.0661764706x +
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0 2 4 6 8 10
0.6
13.6292 0.6292 13
13.6954 1.1954 13 0.5
13.7616 0.7616 12.7 0.3
13.8278 0.8278 12.88 0.12
13.894 1.106 12.952 2.048
13.9602 1.0398 14.1808 0.8192
14.0264 0.9736 14.67232 0.32768
14.0926 0.9074 14.868928 0.131072
14.1588 1.8412 14.9475712 1.0524288
14.225 0.775 15.57902848 0.57902848
14.2912 0.7088 15.231611392 0.23161139
14.3574 1.3574 15.0926445568 2.09264456
14.4236 1.9236 13.8370578227 1.33705782
14.4898 1.4898 13.0348231291 0.03482313
14.556 0.444 13.0139292516 1.98607075
14.6222 0.3778 14.2055717007 0.7944283
14.6884 14.6822286803
PRONÓSTICO PANCHOS
18
16
14 f(x) = 0.0661764706x + 13.5625
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
PROMEDIO PROMEDIO
MOVIL 3 ERROR MOVIL 6
PERÍODOS PRONÓSTICO HOT DOG POLLO MESES MESES
Jan-18 39
Feb-18 38
Mar-18 42
Apr-18 40.5 39.7 0.8
May-18 42 40.2 1.8
Jun-18 42 41.5 0.5
Jul-18 41 41.5 0.5 40.6
Aug-18 40 41.7 1.7 40.9
Sep-18 40.5 41.0 0.5 41.3
Oct-18 41 40.5 0.5 41.0
Nov-18 42 40.5 1.5 41.1
Dec-18 39 41.2 2.2 41.1
Jan-19 38 40.7 2.7 40.6
Feb-19 40 39.7 0.3 40.1
Mar-19 41.5 39.0 2.5 40.1
Apr-19 42 39.8 2.2 40.3
May-19 41.2 40.4
PRONÓSTICO HO
43
42
41
40 f(x) = 0.0375x + 40.2125
39
38
37
36
0 2 4 6 8 10
0.6
40.2505 1.2505 39
40.288 2.288 39 1
40.3255 1.6745 38.4 3.6
40.363 0.137 40.56 0.06
40.4005 1.5995 40.524 1.476
40.438 1.562 41.4096 0.5904
40.4755 0.5245 41.76384 0.76384
40.513 0.513 41.305536 1.305536
40.5505 0.0505 40.5222144 0.0222144
40.588 0.412 40.50888576 0.49111424
40.6255 1.3745 40.803554304 1.1964457
40.663 1.663 41.5214217216 2.52142172
40.7005 2.7005 40.0085686886 2.00856869
40.738 0.738 38.8034274755 1.19657252
40.7755 0.7245 39.5213709902 1.97862901
40.813 1.187 40.7085483961 1.2914516
40.8505 41.4834193584
39
38
37
36
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
O PROMEDIO MOVIL 3 MESES
PROMEDIO PONDERADO 3 MESES
PRONÓSTICO SE
10 12 14 16 18 20
PLANEACION AGREGADA DE PAPAS AL HILO
Papas al
86
84
82
80
78
76
74
72
70
68
66
1 2 3 4 5 6
Row 8
Emb
800
750
700
650
600
550
1 2 3 4 5
700
650
600
550
1 2 3 4 5
Row 3
DE PAPAS AL HILO
Papas al hilo
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Row 8 Row 9
DE EMBUTIDOS
Embuti dos
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Row 34 Row 35
TOTAL 1000
188
188000
302
622.5166
934.5112
TOTAL
1730
1730000
302
5728.477
8601.434