Statementfor the Record

Dr. Rod Schoonover

Senior Analyst
Bureau of Intelligence and Research
Department ofState

Hearing on
‘The NationalSecurity Implications ofClimate Change

Before the
Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence
USS. House of Representatives

June 5, 2019
 UNCLASSIFIED
Chairman Sehif, Ranking Member Nunes, and distinguished members ofthe Committee, thank you
forinviting me to speak with you today on the national security implicationsof climate khange ‘Commented [83ME NSC Comment There could be
rational security implications of mat chonge, but
‘As aUS inteligenceofficer inthe Department of State ButeaofInelignce and Research it sy jo you wort id a scenic assessment of them in his
to provide clear,objectivepndindependent analysis topolcymakersto advance US, national secur testimony. Cooling in northern Europe was one ofthe
factors tat dove Germanicbes into theRoman
objectives. As scientist inthe intelligence community (IC, blendinsights derived from poe. ‘empie and astend its calla. Aneven more
reviewed joumal articles anothecent reportswithinformation gathered from dally ntligence rarmatic cooingand drying,the42 kioyear event
coincdedwith the the demize of the Eatin Old
reporting oprovide science-informed national security analysis. My undersandingofthis and other Kingdom the Alkan erie in Mesopotamia, the
issues is deepened by thecare ofaonted and dedicatedofficers inthe IC. many with technical collapse ofthe indusVay elation and other
expertise who quilly serve US. interests, This Comitei already aware thathe IC doesnot Aisroptions around the word So indeed, ciate
| ehange can affect human society, but every historical
advocate for any particularset ofpolicies, includingthose that address climate change. [instancewas romcooing, not warm,
‘The Bottom Line ‘Commented [BJME2}: NSC Convent Thisie not
‘objective testimony at al. it inclodeslt f cate
alarm propaganda hats notsenceat al1am
Fundamental characteristics ofthe global imate are moving outside the bounds experienced inhuman ‘mbarassed to have this go outon behalf the
history and there is uncertainty on hove some aspects ofthe climate will evolve, Given the complex Executive Branchofthe Federal Goverment,
social and political contestin which a multitude ofchanges are ocurting, however wecanexpect ‘Commented {BIME3}: NSC Comment No theres
nothingexceptional about curent cate and tie
new and compounded stresses on pcople and sacetes around the word, many with outomes ‘rofoundly incorrect wo say that characteristics of
importantfornational security ‘bal cimate are moving outside the Bounds
experienced in human sto” There was faster and
{Climate change will have wide-ranging implications for US. national security over the next 20 years sreter Medieval warring around the yea 100 when
Nrse seed southern Greenland anddeveloped 3
through global perturbationsincreased risk of political instability, heightened tensions between ‘thriving greta oct.
countries for resources, a growing number oflimat-inked humanitariancriss, emergent geostetegic
competitive domains, a adverse effects on militaries] Increasingly probable amalgamationsofthese {Commented (3ME4: NSC Commi Fst sentence
security concems ae especially worrisome, Climate change alone is unlikely to trigger state fale in reads asif imate change the primary causal event,
thenext few decades bat it will affect factors that that contribute to conflict sch a acestonatural bute sentence says cimateehangesloeis nly
to tigger state faire. and wil exacerbate existing
resources, People will increasingly decide to move because ofleteriorating conditions both within condions. Unsure what hie bottom ine hee
nationsand into countiesthat are more prosperous. Perhapsmost importantly, theapiof ‘Commented [BIMES}: NSC Comment le thie imate
concurrent and compounded changesto Earth's systems, from human and natural causes, heightens conden gneral “inhospitable(now
"eterirating’conditions?
the iskfor unwelcome and possibly severe climatelinked surprises. ‘Commented [BIMEGNSC Conment These
Framework for Analysis nothing unusually rapid about the very modest
‘warming that has occured in he pas century. The
‘The IC’s task with respect to climate changei to inform policymakers of the myriad risks and Medieval warming mentioned above was more
‘ences,
tiesthat may lic ahead,ratherthan trying to predict the future, We have therefore examined
a wide range ofclimate change effects, including those currently believed to have low probability,
particularly ifthe ramifications could be highly impactful, The IC focuses onsecurity considerations
‘outside the United States,so we donot address the direct effectsofclimate change on the U.S,
homeland. We expect, however, that many judgements could nonetheless apply tothe United States,
 UNCLASSIFIED.

For is anny, we consider an event a matonal secur once when

Produces notceabie even I tmporry, degradation of ore ofthe elements of
US. national power: geopttial, mltary, economic formatnal, soa eshesion
> Indecty intuences the United Sates,trougha sttepcaly pecanlor partner
Causes adverse effects thatindirect conse US. resources
“Analyzing the national security implications ofclimate change generally requites tracinga logic a
from climate stessoto limate-linked event to societal stress o security concer, anendeavor
complicated by climate conditions beng intertwined in a complex of social, politcal, and biophysical
conaitions(Figute 1). Enumerating the lage numberofother important contributingfactorsis beyond
the scope of this document, but ilustrative examples include consumption paterns, demographics
‘environmentaldegradation, existing social and politcal conditions, land-use changes, emerging
technologies, governance, andthe tendency for populations to concentrate in climate-vulnerable
locations. Changingclimate conditions, in combination with other stressors, almost certainly wll
inezeasngly threaten nationalsecurity over the nextfw decades “Commented (MET: NSC Commentthe purpose
‘ofthis 2013 chart to say that mate change primary
‘ause ofthe "Natiool Security Outeame eg,
Figure 1: Schematic Links Between Climate Change and National Security Insabli’ orcmate change one of manyfactors that
exacerbate natty?
aes}
f cee i ] Human and Societal Svess
‘Other Biophysical Conditions {eg foodduper) \
(eg. sol degradation)
‘National Security Outcome
(eg. stably) ‘Commented (BJMEB}: WHLA CommentCut sections
‘ofthe testimony that dont decty adores the hearing
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‘TheIGdevelopclimate-sionc;-instead findingsfrom outside Our
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reviews iterature, om the Sot bicandfrom
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analysis many-otherparticularly journals] avontages of sociplanned economies. A
‘consensus of per reewed iterate hasnothingto do
vith wath
 UNCLASSIFIED.

Figure 2: Global Temperature Anomaly by YearSince 1880

‘Commented (MEO): NSC Comment The suace
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atmosphere since about1860 also show much less
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contaminated by uban eatingeffets, ecord high
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‘Commented [B1MET4): NSC Comment Nobody
sure what wl happen to temperatures over the next
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 UNCLASSIFIED
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Figure 3: Projected Trends in Selected Climate-Linked Phenomena (2050-2100) fener imate Mi as aAnei says:
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 UNCLASSIFIED.
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 UNCLASsIFED.
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Figure 4: Examples of Climate-Linked Stresses to Human and Societal Systems iow climate change must be the fist examplein
human history of “al win that lows no good. *
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 UNCLASSIFIED
National Security Impticati ‘of Climate Change
Climate change will affect U.S, nationalsecurityinterests overthe next twenty years through multiple
‘concurrent and compounded pathways. The following sectionsillustrate some significant national
security concems, but examples provided are illustrative rather than comprehensive.
Global Perturbations
‘No country will be immune totheeffectsof climate change overthe next 20 years, but somewill be
able to cope, adapt,or respond more effectively than others, Most populationsare likely to encounter
‘multiple stresses across politcal, social, economic, and human security domains ~fragite states in Sub-
Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and Central and Southeast Asia are especially vulnerable. Local
problems could spilloverwith global consequences, suchasthrough increasedhuman displacement,
naturalresource disputes, commodityprice volatility, orviolence.
Studiesof potential economic coats from climate change varyonsiderbl, Most estimatesshow ‘Commented (BIME22]: NSC Comment This testinory
limited aggregate damage to the global economy over the next 20 years, howevereconomic damage 10 religiously assumes that ary cima change il
‘certainly bebad, Bt this assumption is not based on
some ations oF regions could be severe, Past and anticipated extreme limae events may discourage Scence. Economic models that aecourfor the bens
investments in regions deemed especially vulnerable and insurance rates may rise well before actual ‘of modest warming (which sal we are ket to get
‘rom inereased CO? level) and account fr the massive
adverse climate effects are felt, Progress on development, particularly in love-lyingcoastal areas may benefits of more CO?to agicture and forestry, show
stall or recede, A harsher climate alsowill stesor harm infrastructure not designed for such thatthe “ost of carbonis actualy negative mere CO2
conditions, especialy in urban selings. Thofinancial burden ofadapting and responding to emergent ‘benefits the world until CO2 evel reat exced those
toy
climate hazards andcriseswhile expandingefforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions could reduce
‘moneyavailable for other investments
Threats to humanhealthwil emerge or intensity from climate change. Some groupsof people are
especially susceptible to climatesensitive health hazardssuch as periodsofextreme heat, Examples
include young children and the elderly, populations expetiencing social marginalization through ‘Commented [BIMEZ3): NSC Comment Mere junk
poverty or migetion status, andindividualsalready sulfeingadverse health conditions. Water-bore 2] science. The prevalence of infectiousdiseases hs ie
1 do wit climate but san ssof pubic health
diseases uch as diarthea are highly sensitive to climate conditions, Long-term changes in climate onto of eseasevectors, immunizationof the
could gradually shift the geographic range, seasonal timing, and transmission intensify ofinfectious population, ete Dutng the American Revelutionay
Warfom 1776 to 1781 Congress appropriated
diseases worldwide, Health cate infrastructure and deliverysystemsae also likelyto belafeted, Substantal sumsto buyquinine forthe Coninentl
‘yttat ime in the cool ral decades of he ile
Food securitywil almost certainly decrease in some regions, The precise impact ofclimate change on ‘ceAge, malaria was a problem in Boston are even
agriculture production will differ by region and crop, but damagesae tkely tobegreater forcountries further north Sore 5000 people or more dein the
located closer tothe equator. Elevated overnight temperatures will put particularpressure on yiow fever idee of 173 in Phiadephia, The
nt-vaciaton cutalreadycausieg much meve
agriculturalproductivity. Fisheriesproductivityi kely to decrease in some areas, suchasEast Asa, {damage to publicheath than cate change.
Livestock willbe increasingly vulnerable to period of extreme heat and drought] ‘Commented (BIMEZ4: NSC Comment: Ths is more
ronsnse, Cbserations andtheories (n are
agreement) show that anyglobal warring inthe
'wopcs wilbe minima. and mest climate change wi
take place nearer the poles
 UNCLASSIFIED
ate changtects could undermine portantineratonal systems on which he United tates
and its partners ate eiically dependent, such asteade routes, food and energysupplies, the gla
economy,and domestic stability abroad, Pooty designed adaptation and mitigation responses to
climatechange could undermine ongtenm U.S, economic energy, and security gols, Ongoing
climateseated hazards and the perepton of Wester responsibility, may engender hostility towards
the United States of other industrialized fountred ‘Commented (B/ME2S]: NSC Conment Yes, theeie
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Instability ands affluentles whose prosperitywasbult on
ineypensve, aloble oss ues, The Weld Bank refuses
‘Most, if not al, countries are unable to respondfully tothe risks posed byclimate-tinked hazards te france moder, ecological fiendly, lable and
_fordable cal powerplants in Aieaor ather ess.
under present conditions. With increased pressure from climate change,existing social and political ‘oveloped parts of he word where people woud ke
structures will come under greater strain, whichcould deepen grievances and stoke tensions, Impacts te enjoy someofthe samecomforts tht we do,
‘woulddisproportionatelyfall on vulnerable populations, such asyouth, The consequences likely will Instead, they are supposed to rely onexpensive and
_unsiobie wind and ole power,
be severe enough in someinstances to compelinternationalreaction, includingfrom the United States,
‘Countries with weakinstitutions, low governmentallegitimacy, or where the potential for conflict and
political strife is already present, will have increased risk ofinstability. Cross-border displacement to
neighboring poor countries may undermine regional stability.
Heightened Tensions over Natural Resources
Water. Decreases in water access, quality, oF reliability may increasethe risk of conflict between
populations who share river basins oraquifers, especiallyatthe subnational level. Although wateris
typicallya source of cooperation between countries, extreme water scarcity orrapidly changing,
conditions could change this dynamic. Tensions are especially enflamed when anupsteeamcountry
buildsinfrastructure,such as a dam, without a water-sharing agreement with downstream counties
Fisheries. Disputes over ishing rights and accesso fsheries havebecommajor pointsof contention
forcountries that relyheavily on fishing for fod orincome. Ocean acidification and warming is ikely
toredistribute marine ish populations,benefiting some regions at the expenseofothers, while global
fisheries faceadditional pressuresfom overexplotation and declining ocean health, Inensifyng coral
bleaching wil harm reef ecosystemscrucialfr vast species of marineif ‘Commented (B/ME26): NSC Cormnent Thereno
‘evidence that coal bleachingi intensifying now or wi
Arable land. Declines in land resources crucial to velihoods an sustenance are well-knowndriers inthe future Corl ets hav Bleached and usually
offocaconfit n some eonsclimate changeeffects will worsen already degraded soil quality with recovered tvougbout their eoutonry history
concomitant effects onthe people who depend actly on tsproductivity ‘Commented (BMEZ7} NSC Comment Tse
‘onsese. People used to talk about the degraded ol
Human Movement ‘of mybrace, nda Since eft ini in 1948, gain
‘production hasincensed by over a factor ofte, and
‘An individual's decision to migrate depends on a variety of social and economic factors, and there is omloues to inerease, Some af he many reason for
‘his good news are the use of cherries, beter
litle evidence thatclimate change effects have ben the determining factor in these decisionsto date, seed varieties, beter copping methods and increases
Nonetheless, people are likely to perceive additional reasons toflee their homes because of inarmospherc CO2
 UNCLASSIFIED
compounded climate change effect, primarily duetotheloss ofaccess to critical resources. In addition
to movementwithin national borders—especialy to urban areas—many displaced persons will migrate
Into neighboringcountries, sometimes asa staging ground for subsequent onward movement towards
countries with greater economic opportunities. Many recviving nations will have neither the resources
norinterest to hostthese migrants. Increasinglyinhospitable conditions and losses of territory from sea
level rise will likely spur some island nations, particularly inthe tropical Pacific, to consider relocating,
large segmentsofits population elsewhere, Overthe nextfew decades,the neteffects of climate
‘change on patternsof migration and statelessness could be dramatic, perhaps unprecedented.
Humanitarian Crises
‘According to the World Bank, an estimated twobillion people already live in fragile andconflict-
affected areas ofthe world and, by 2030, atleast half ofthe world’s poor will lve in these settings.
These populations are ata disproportionatehigher risk to climate-linked hazards. While natural
disasters have happened forall of human history,extreme events amplified by climate change may
pose newfound challenges, particularly when compounded eventsoccur with greater frequency oF
severity in the same area. ‘The exposure and resilience of people and assets of those affected arecritical
factors in how crises unfold. As humanitarian emergencies persist, the international community's
capacity—or interest—to respond will be increasingly strained,
New Geostrategic Competitive Domains
‘The Arctic region is warmingtwice asfastasthe est ofthe globe and undergoing majorand rapid
transformation, Retreating sea ice creates new possibilitiesfor resource extraction,tourism, and Arctic
fishing, as well as new shipping routes between the Atlantic and Pacific, although operating inthe
Arctic will continue to prove difficult. Disputes over natural resource extraction operationsor
unresolved maritimelimits and boundary claims will likely increase asthe Arctic opens.
‘Adverse Effects on Militaries
Increasing sea-level rise, flooding, drought, temperatures, and extreme weather events will threaten
military capabilities andfacilities on domestic and foreign territory, including military bases and
training ranges. Operations and equipment willalsoneed tobe able towithstand harsher weather
conditions. Sea level rise andincreased frequency of some tropical cyclones, and its associated impacts
‘on erosion, will require significant levels of new surveying and mapping opers jonsto ensure naval
traversability and access to ports, Personnel may also be increasingly unprepared or trained for
especially severe or novel conditions, such as fightingpests or combattingwildfires
 UNCLASSIFIED
Heightened Risk of Climate-Linked Surprises
While climate models project continuouslong-term increases in temperature and oervariable,
scientists warn that sudden, dramatic ciateshits are possible, given the complexity of the system
and analogsin the climate record. The Bath's climat occasionally hasundergoneextremeshifts that
zealchallenge oroverpower many species’ ability to adapt, sometimesin as litle asa decade owo.
lange bodyof scientific evidenceindicates that Earth's systemsare beng driven by natural and
‘manmade forest extraordinarily high ates of change across the atmosphere, biosphere, cryospher,
oceans and soil. For examplethe current rate of increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide isthe highest
in perhaps66 milion years and at levels not seen in at least 800,000 yeas (Figur ‘Commented (BIME2B} NSC Comment igure Sonits
‘nis very misleading, What doesnot showthat
ring interlace the one we are fortunate ove
Figure 5: Carbon Dioxide Levels from 800,000 Years Ago to Present in temperatures arevery stable. Temperature
instabes are pronounced during aacperiods not
‘warm periods Thefutations of CO2shown here are
411 ppm the effec of temperature changes, nt thecase. When
= a ‘apr 2019, temperature rise, CO?lvls bein to isea few
centres later When teperatresfl CO2 levels fl
t few centre ater
E50 ‘ ‘Probableappearance ven theei that CO2levels are highernow tan at
2 ofhomasopiens ——Dappenrance of anytime in thepast 6 milion years is correc, and
3 ‘hereiscompaling proxy evidence tat doesnot
2 supports the Frthis some 4500 milion years od
(ver most ofthat ime CO2 levels have Been meosred
in manythousands of ppm. Pant ifeevlved a these
much higher CO2levels and plants grow much better
‘when CO2levelsae several housand ppm nota puny
8 490 pp. Pants ie fom CO? starvation a
‘orbdow, afaine evel which nas approaches150 ppm
8 01950 srultiple times during the glacal mam of ig 5
a a ey
Years Age
Source: Nana ceric ard AmospheiAdminiaton MOAN, Pcodimsedts oeeonam ke cre samples
‘le eect essenae boo calssnc 85s he in on Santas

Scents are working out theprecise degree to which the climate responds thermally to suchpulses of
carbon dioxide, but the resitant rate of temperature changei likely unprecedented in modern human
Nistor. Many scientists highlight the grovrng sk that abrupt impacts from climate change wil
inerease overthe next several decadesand beyond, The national security implications of such changes, ‘Commented [BIME29}: NSC Cornment Theseare
could ba severe. ‘ade-p iss of abrupt impacts. No previous
Interachas shownany abupt changes. Abrupt
changes occur whenvast ce sheets cover the northe

0
 UNCLASSIFIED.
Closing
The IC'sroleis not to predict the future but rather toassess rsk and provide strategic warning. Prom a
national security perspective, the disruption imparted byclimate change andits associated effects over
20 years dependscritically onatleast fous factors
‘+ The degree to whichcarbon dioxide and othergreenhouse gases drive globaltemperature
increases: a large or small influence, or something in between
The degree to whichthe multiplicity of concurrent orsequential climate-linked hazards interact,
amplify, or offset each other
‘+ The degree to which the drivers of climate change, pasticulaely greenhouse gas emissions, will
bbe addressed by people, governments, and industries
+ The degree to which people's exposure and vulnerability to known and anticipated climate-
linked hazards are reduced
‘Thefrst twofactors are scientific concernsand active areas of academic research; people’s choicesin
the present and future, however, dictate the magnitude ofthe last two, The large range ofuncertainties
‘meansthat quantifying the appropriate timeframe for action is difficult complicated by the fact that
responsestostresses will often require many years to bearfruit. Absent extensive mitigating factors or
‘events, we see few plausible future scenarioswhere significant ~possibly catastrophic—harm does not
arise rom the compounded effects of imate change| ‘Commented (BIMESO}: NSC Comment This calbates
‘the testimony, isnot a science-based assessment but
advocacy forthe cate alarm etablsiment. CO2
levels have been stedly increasingfor he past
century. At the same time, standards of vinga ie
‘expectancy haveincrease, especialy inthe lest.
‘developed part ofthe word actu! and foresty
yds are steadily increasing de to the beneficial
‘ets of moreCOZ,deaths fom exreme weather
‘eens steadily decreasing dueto timely warnings
of entree weather, beter buldng and zoning codes

{the Sate Departments Buren ofteligenee and Research produced his document andidnot continwith
therestoftheinteligence conaninits production patcalar reason this sentence was added to
the testimony?
[Page 3: [1] Commented [BJME10] Barringer, Jody M. EOP/OMB. 6/3/2019 5:25:00 PM_|
NSC Comment: The surface temperature data ofFig. is very controversial. It has beenfiddled with to
reduce recorded temperatures of early years and to increase temperatures of recent years in order to give
the appearanceofalarming warming, Temperature recordsforrural locations, unaffected by urban heat
island bias, show much less warming,

Satellite measurements of the temperature of the lower atmospheresince about 1980 also show much
less warming, All models find thatthe atmosphere should exhibit more warming than the surface, not
less.

There has been very modest warming in fits and startssince the endoftheLittle Ice Ages, aboutthe year
1800. This was interrupted by cooling from about 1940 to 1980,leading to ominous predictions of a new
ice age Time, Newsweek and otherjournals that arejust as confidently predicting uninterrupted warming
from now on. A long “pause” in warming began aboutthe year 2000,and the pause maystill be effect.
[Page 3: [2] Commented [BJME13] Barringer, Jody M. EOP/OMB 6/3/2019 5:27:00 PM _|
NSC Comment: The oceans are strongly basic with an average surface pH of about 8.1. Increased
concentrations of CO2 should have slightly reduced the pH to around 8.0.This is a completely trivial
change compared to the natural fluctuations of ocean pH with time of day, depth,latitude, etc. where pH
canrangefrom 8.3 to 7.5. To call an average change of pH from 8.1 to 8.0 “acidification” is propaganda,
designed to alarm the chemicallyliterate.

[Page 3:[3] Commented [BJME14] Barringer, Jody M. EOP/OMB 6/3/2019 5:27:00 PM.
NSC Comment: Nobodyis sure what will happen to temperatures over the next several decades.
Greenhouse gases should cause some warming, But the observed warming has been much less than
model predictions, and consistent with 1 C warming,orless, for doubling CO2 concentrationsin the
atmosphere. This would be an overall benefit to society, for example, by extending growing seasons,
curtailing winter mortality.