Taller # 7

Caculo del MTBF

Datos de falla del siguiente Equipo son: 30, 31, 14, 2, 26, 25,
22, 7 en dias.
Calcular
Calcular el MTBF y la rata de falla

Cual es la probabilidad que falle antes de las 200 horas.

Cual es la confiabilidad en 300 horas.

Si el costo de la falla es de Col$ 26’670.000 y el costos del

mantto preventivo es de $ 1’590.000, cual es el tiempo óptimo
para hacer el mantenimiento?.
 Confiabilidad Distribucion exponencial

MTBF = 1
Rata de falla 1.0000

Tiempo Exponencial
1 #ADDIN?
2 0.14
3 0.05
4 0.02
5 0.01
6 0.00
7 0.00
8 0.00
9 0.00
10 0.00
11 0.00
12 0.00
13 0.00
14 0.00
15 0.00
16 0.00
17 0.00
18 0.00
19 0.00
20 0.00
21 0.00
22 0.00
23 0.00
24 0.00
25 0.00
26 0.00
27 0.00
28 0.00
29 0.00
30 0.00
31 0.00
32 0.00
33 0.00
34 0.00
35 0.00
36 0.00
37 0.00
38 0.00
39 0.00
40 0.00
41 0.00
42 0.00
43 0.00
44 0.00
45 0.00
46 0.00
47 0.00
48 0.00
49 0.00
50 0.00
51 0.00
52 0.00
53 0.00
54 0.00
55 0.00
56 0.00
57 0.00
58 0.00
59 0.00
60 0.00
61 0.00
62 0.00
63 0.00
64 0.00
65 0.00
66 0.00
67 0.00
68 0.00
69 0.00
70 0.00
71 0.00
72 0.00
73 0.00
74 0.00
75 0.00
76 0.00
77 0.00
78 0.00
79 0.00
80 0.00
81 0.00
82 0.00
83 0.00
84 0.00
85 0.00
86 0.00
87 0.00
88 0.00
89 0.00
90 0.00
91 0.00
92 0.00
93 0.00
94 0.00
95 0.00
96 0.00
97 0.00
98 0.00
99 0.00
100 0.00
 Simulación por Monte Carlo de Confiabilidad Exponencial
A : distribucion exponencial con MTTF=137 dias
Aleatorios
landa = 1/137 = 0.0073
Landa= 0.0037
X= (-1/landa)*{ln (aleatorio)}
s Aleatorio Exponencial
1 0.775 68.95
2 0.203 430.50 Exponencial
3 0.204 429.24
Exponencial
4 0.764 72.61
5 0.231 396.34
6 0.459 210.63
7 0.934 18.39
8 0.349 284.87 1.000
9 0.286 338.01
10 0.323 305.19
11 0.861 40.43 0.900
12 0.883 33.66
13 0.035 908.36
14 0.546 163.44
0.800
15 0.205 428.96
16 0.659 112.73 0.700
17 0.834 49.07
18 0.163 490.07
19 0.651 116.13 0.600
20 0.166 485.06
21 0.948 14.30
22 0.643 119.15 0.500
23 0.723 87.66
24 0.110 597.71
25 0.128 555.31 0.400
26 0.024 1007.10
27 0.503 185.77
28 0.334 296.12
0.300
29 0.545 163.97
30 0.821 53.17 0.200
31 0.607 134.82
32 0.773 69.51
33 0.117 579.17 0.100
34 0.210 421.67
35 0.400 247.76
36 0.543 164.98 0.000
37 0.302 323.37 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 0
38 0.387 256.37 0. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
39 0.333 297.58
40 0.356 279.29
41 0.705 94.49
42 0.741 80.89
43 0.017 1099.41
44 0.165 487.17
45 0.936 17.87
46 0.949 14.20
47 0.900 28.38
48 0.373 266.77
49 0.556 158.74
50 0.151 510.68
51 0.184 458.16
52 0.292 333.16
53 0.520 176.82
54 0.662 111.62
55 0.680 104.26
56 0.000 2302.33
57 0.211 421.12
58 0.793 62.54
59 0.920 22.56
60 0.446 218.47
61 0.382 260.02
62 0.942 16.08
63 0.249 375.27
64 0.255 369.53
65 0.644 119.12
66 0.848 44.64
67 0.458 210.82
68 0.645 118.70
69 0.791 63.22
70 0.670 108.24
71 0.649 116.82
72 0.236 390.26
 s Aleatorio Exponencial
73 0.993 1.85
74 0.986 3.92 Exponencial
75 0.907 26.41
Exponencial
76 0.680 104.33
77 0.277 346.57
78 0.806 58.19
79 0.063 746.59
80 0.052 801.26 1.000
81 0.575 149.65
82 0.236 390.48
83 0.423 232.79 0.900
84 0.140 531.87
85 0.968 8.87
86 0.831 50.02
0.800
87 0.628 125.64
88 0.801 60.01 0.700
89 0.156 502.23
90 0.651 115.91
91 0.844 45.76 0.600
92 0.990 2.73
93 0.426 230.90
94 0.045 837.63 0.500
95 0.651 116.20
96 0.502 186.20
97 0.567 153.31 0.400
98 0.909 25.73
99 0.834 49.20
100 0.213 418.53
0.300
Prob 0.994728432
0.5584510356 0.200
0.1664517349

0.100

0.000
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 0
0. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
 Exponencial

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0
00 900 000 100 200 300 400 500
1 2 2 2 2 2 2
 Figure 6: Weibull Reliability Calculator

Calculo de la Confiabilidad Distribucion exponencial

PROBABILIDA
CALCULO DE CONFIABILIDAD TIEMPO RELIABILITY
DE FALLA

MTBF (dias)= 365.00 0 1.0000 .0000

Rata de falla = 0.002740

40 .8962 .1038

Tiempo Probabilidad falla Reliability

80 .8032 .1968
0 1.0000 .0000 120 .7198 .2802
5 .9864 .0136 160 .6451 .3549
10 .9730 .0270 200 .5781 .4219
15 .9597 .0403 240 .5181 .4819
20 .9467 .0533 280 .4643 .5357
25 .9338 .0662 320 .4161 .5839
30 .9211 .0789 360 .3730 .6270
35 .9086 .0914 400 .3342 .6658
40 .8962 .1038 440 .2995 .7005
1,000 .0646 .9354 480 .2685 .7315
Reliability Dias FFI 520 .2406 .7594
0.01 1,681 722.70 560 .2156 .7844
0.1 840 657.00 600 .1932 .8068
0.5 253 365.00 640 .1732 .8268
0.6 186 292.00 680 .1552 .8448
0.7 130 219.00 720 .1391 .8609
0.8 81 146.00 760 .1247 .8753
0.9 38 73.00 800 .1117 .8883
0.99 4 7.30 840 .1001 .8999
0.999 0 0.73 880 .0897 .9103
920 .0804 .9196

CALCULOS DE CONFIABILIDAD - METODO DE DISTRIBUCION EXPONENCIAL

960 .0721 .9279
R=1 - EXP^(-t/MTBF) 1,000 .0646 .9354
 Figure 6: Weibull Reliability Calculator
1,040 .0579 .9421
ALCULOS DE MANTENIBILIDAD, FAILURE-FINDING TASK 1,080 .0519 .9481
FFI=2*(1-R)*MTBF 1,120 .0465 .9535
1,160 .0417 .9583
1,200 .0373 .9627
1,240 .0335 .9665
1,280 .0300 .9700

CONFIABILIDAD DESEADA 98%

TIEMPO PARA ENCONTRAR FALLA RONDA OPERATIVA 14.6

TIEMPO PARA MANTENIMIENTO PREDICTIVO R=80% 81

TIEMPO PARA MANTENIMIENTO PREVENTIVO R=50% 253
 Figure 6: Weibull Reliability Calculator

Confiabilidad

1.0000

.9000

.8000

.7000
Reliability

.6000

.5000

.4000

.3000

.2000

.1000

.0000
0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320 360 400 440 480 520 560 600 640 680 720 760 800 840 880 920 960 1,00 1,04 1,08 1,12 1,16 1,20 1,24 1,28
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Horas
.1000

.0000
0 Figure 6: Weibull Reliability Calculator
40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320 360 400 440 480 520 560 600 640 680 720 760 800 840 880 920 960 1,00 1,04 1,08 1,12 1,16 1,20 1,24 1,28
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Horas