Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Rohit Talwar
CEO
Fast Future
ILTACON 2016
National Harbor, Maryland
August 29th 2016
Contents
Presentation p 4
Background Notes p 96
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When Two
Worlds Collide
A
Digitized
Society With a
Global Brain
A
Physical
& Local
World
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What’s all the Fuss About –
What is Artificial Intelligence?
Artificial intelligence (AI) is an area of
computer science that emphasizes the
creation of intelligent machines that
work and react like humans. E.g.
Speech recognition, visual perception,
learning, reasoning, inference,
strategising, planning, intuition,
decision-making, and language
translation.
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Unique Opportunity and Existential Risk?
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A US$650 Billion Market at Risk?
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Or a US$78-120 Trillion Opportunity?
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AI - A Brief History
• June 1945 - Vannevar Bush "As We May Think" – Argues to
Redirect scientific efforts from destruction towards understanding.
Suggests need for a “memex” collective memory machine to make
knowledge more accessible, and transform an information
explosion into a knowledge explosion.
• 1950 - Alan Turing paper Computing Machinery and Intelligence ‘I
propose to consider the question, 'Can machines think?’ Proposes
the “Turing Test” of a machine's ability to exhibit intelligent
behavior equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of a human
• 1956 - term 'Artificial Intelligence‘ created at a Dartmouth College
conference
• 1956–74 - “Golden Years” – funding boom - reasoning, NLP,
micro-worlds
• 1974-80 – First AI Winter
• 1980-87 – Boom – expert systems, knowledge, Japan’s 5th
Generation Project
• 1987-93 – Second AI Winter
• 1993 to Present – Progress, Embedding, Explosion
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AI - The Last 25 Years
• 1991 - Gulf War DARPA's DART scheduling app pays back 30 year
funding of AI
• 1997 - IBM Deep Blue chess machine defeats world champion,
Garry Kasparov.
• 1998 - Tiger Electronics' Furby released, first successful domestic
AI application
• 2004 - DARPA Grand Challenge competition to build autonomous
vehicles
• 2007-Present – Advances in Machine Learning (ML) / Deep
Learning enable machines to learn on their own, advance and
adapt. Growing focus on unaided/unassisted learning
• 2010-Present –Improvement in image recognition, interpretation
and anomaly detection – rivals humans capabilities - facial
recognition / object identification
• 2011 IBM Watson wins Jeopardy – combines NLP, ML, big data.
• 2011-12 Siri/Google reshaping human-machine and human-data
interaction
• 2015 – Growth of AI Apps, large tech firms and corporates
investing heavily, universities adding AI courses, IBM working with
over 150 partners to offer cognitive computing curricula to business
and technology students.
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AI is Enabling a Business
Concept Revolution
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A Number of AI Based Legal Offerings are Emerging
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We can Learn Lessons from FinTech
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Pervasive, Embedded, Augmented, Connected
to a Multi-Sensory “IoE” = Immersive
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Automation of Government
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Tackling
Grand
Challenges
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Reverse Engineering the Brain
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Artificial General Intelligence and the
Prospect of Super Intelligence
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What are the Big Players Doing?
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Several
Players
are Open
Sourcing
their AI
Tools
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Future Search – Google RankBrain
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Swiftkey
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Sony
Experia
Agent
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Deep (Machine) Learning
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Human-Like AI?
Empathy, Chit-
Chat, Ethics
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Quixote – Teaching Robots Ethics
Legal Sector Applications
1. Automation of legal tasks and processes
2. Decision support and outcome prediction
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Automation of Legal Tasks and Processes
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Decision Support and Outcome Prediction 1of 2
• BakerHostetler, Latham and
Watkins – ROSS – legal research
• Pinsent Masons TermFrame tool
reads and analyses clauses in loan
agreements, guides lawyers through
transactions and suggests precedents
at each stage of a process.
• DLA Piper – Kira for document review
in M&A, extracts and analyzes key
contract provisions, rapid summary
and analysis
• Premonition – which lawyers win with
which case types and which judges
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Decision Support and Outcome Prediction 2 of 2
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Creation of New Product and Service Offerings
• Fenwick and West – online document
generation for startup formation
• Dentons / Nextlaw Labs – RAVN for
BREXIT Connect – online education /
impact analysis
• LawPath – Online Chatbot advising on
privacy law and generating client-
specific compliance policy in real-time
• Neota partnering with Allens/University
of Technology Sydney and Slater and
Gordon/Melbourne Law School –
student competitions for online social
justice applications
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Process Design and Matter Management
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Practice Management
• Benchmarking across practice
areas for comparable tasks from
document production through to
completion of key stages in a
matter
• Identifying potential HR
challenges using social media
sentiment analysis of comments
• Dynamic modelling of alternative
billing approaches
• Matter team formation based on
personal characteristics
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In-house Legal Applications
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Direct Services
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Blockchain
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Ethereum and Smart Contracts
• Ethereum - platform to
create private blockchains
and smart contracts
• Goldman Sachs Estimates:
– Legal savings of $US11
- 12 billion per year
from streamlining
clearing and settlement
of cash securities
– $US2 - 4 billion annual
legal saving on moving
real estate titles to
distributed ledgers.
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Decentralized Autonomous Organizations
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Decentralized Arbitration and Mediation Network DAO
(DAMN) – Third Key Solutions
• An ‘opt-in’ global justice DAO
system for commercial
transactions
• Designed to create and work
with ‘smart contracts’
• Provide user choice - resolved
by a person, an algorithm, pools
of random jurors, pools of
experts, through collaboration
of the parties involved, or even
another DAO
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Algocracy - Automating the Law
• Common Accord - creating global
codes of legal transacting by
codifying and automating legal
documents, including contracts,
permits, organizational documents,
and consents.
• Rewriting and embedding the law
in software – automatic fines,
drawing evidence from the Internet
of Things, standardized open
source legal documents,
automated judgements
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Client Advisory Opportunities
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The Next 18 Months
• Growth of law firms establishing internal technology innovation labs, creating
seed funds to invest in legal technology start-ups, and running joint experiments
with technology providers and clients
• A number of firms and in-house teams will run AI trials and develop applications
than create smarter internal processes
• A range of trials and applications of AI for lawyer decision support
• Launch of the first client facing AI applications and new AI-enabled products and
services
• Growth of FinTech – rising pressure from financial services to embrace AI/
Blockchain technology – with legal cost reduction a key driver
• Emergence of Blockchain Smart Contracts and DAO’s
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The Next Three Years
• Clear evidence of lawyer replacement by smart technologies
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The Next Five Years
• Applications starting to emerge that display near-human levels of intelligence
(Artificial General Intelligence) in certain domains
• First examples of true Algocracy - Countries moving to digitising / automating /
embedding the law
• Blockchain / smart contracts / DAOs in widespread use in financial services and
other sectors
• 20-50% of ‘routine’ legal work by sector fully automated by clients with no law firm
involvement
• New technology-centric legal sector entrants from the last five years competing
head on with Big Law
• AI in widespread use across law firms and frequently mandated by clients.
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The Power of Exponential Growth
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Pursuit of Exponential Growth
AirBnB Hotels 90x more listings per employee
GitHub Software 109x more repositories per employee
Local Motors 1000x cheaper to develop a new car model
Automotive 5-22x faster to manufacture a car
Quirky Consumer Goods 10x faster product development (29 vs 300 days)
Google Ventures 2.5x more investments in early stage start-ups
Investments 10x faster through design process
Valve Gaming 30x more market cap per employee
Tesla Automotive 30x more market cap per employee
Tangerine (formerly ING Direct 7x more customers per employee
Canada) Banking 4x more deposits per customer
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Strati – First 3D Printed Car (Local Motors)
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Exponential Market Cap Improvement
Age (yrs) 2011 valuation 2016 valuation Increase
Haier 31 $19 billion $60 billion (2014) 3x
Valve 19 $1.5 billion $4.5 billion (2014) 3x
Google 18 $150 billion $533.4 billion 3.6x
Uber 8 $2 billion $62.5 billion 31x
AirBnB 7 $2 billion $25.5 billion 12.8x
Github 7 $ 500 million (est.) $2 billion 4x
Waze 7 $ 25 million $1.15 billion (sold to 46x
Google in 2013)
Qirky 6 $ 50 million Closed 40x at peak
Snapchat 4 0 $16 billion 16,000x +
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Exponential Law Firm Growth
• Signature Litigation
(UK) – 100% YoY
• Lawyers on Demand
– 48% YoY
• CMS (UK) – 35% YoY
• Axiom 1,216% over
ten years
• Allen & Overy – 92%
over ten years
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Nanotechnology / Artificial
New
3D / 4D Atomically Precise Intelligence /
Computing
Printing Manufacturing Conscious
Architectures
Technology
Food Chain
Transformation Hyperconnected
Exponential Internet of
Energy Humanity
Innovation Science and Technology
Immersivity /
Robotics / Developments Mixed Reality
Drones Living
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S&T Innovation and New Ideas are
Enabling Tomorrow’s $1Tn+ Sectors
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Info. and Communications Technology
Mobile Internet - Devices, Services,
Infrastructure, Commerce
Next Generation Intelligent,
Personalised Internet
Cloud Based Applications,
Infrastructure, Services
Internet of Things / Internet of
Everything / Internet of Humanity
Big Data, Data Mining and the
Automation of Knowledge
AI, Deep Learning and Robotics
Blockchain Systems and DAOs
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Production and Construction Systems &
Technologies
Advanced Robotics /
Drones
3D/4D Printing and
Advanced Materials
Genomics and Synthetic
Biology
Biomimcry Applied to
Product Design and
Engineered Systems
Rapid / Green / Sustainable
Construction
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Industry Transformation
Global Infrastructure Construction -
Roads, Transport, Energy, Water
Infrastructure Operation and
Maintenance
Warehousing, Logistics and
Distribution
Reinvention and Automation of
Professional Services - E.g.
Accounting, Legal, Consultancy,
and Architecture
Financial Services
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Energy and Environment
Alternative and Renewable
Energy Generation,
distribution and Storage
Advanced Oil & Gas
Exploration & Recovery -
Including Fracking and
Methane Hydrates
Geo-Engineering, Climate
and Environmental
Protection, Disaster
Recovery and Remediation
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Citizen Services and Infrastructure
Health 2.0 – Wellness, Personalisation,
Prevention, Diagnosis, and Treatment
Elder Care
Human Modification / Augmentation /
Body Shops
Clean Domestic Water and Sanitation
Services
Smart Homes – Smart Devices, Air
Conditioning, Waste to Power
Green / Electric / Autonomous / Near-
Autonomous Vehicles
Education Systems Transformation
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New Societal Infrastructure and Services
New Food and Agriculture Solutions
Sharing / Circular Economy –
Repurpose, Recycle, Reuse, Repair
Smart City Infrastructures and
Services
Intelligent Transport Systems
Justice and Social Care
E-Government Services
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Truly Disruptive Innovation
e.g. Hyperloop
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3D Printing
$483 U.S
Zhuoda (Xi’an) - 3D Printed Homes –
Assembly in Under 3 Hours (US$483 / SQM)
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These developments require interpretation, reframing and redrafting of legal
frameworks and creation of new legal concepts and dispute mechanisms to
encompass emerging political, economic, social, and business paradigms.
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Establishing Governing Principles and Regulations for use
and Insurance of Self-Driving Vehicles / Self-Owning Assets
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Rollback,
Recovery,
Contract
Review, &
Dispute
Arbitration
for
Automated,
Blockchain
Financial
Transaction
Systems
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Governance and ‘Right Of Redress’ Protocols Where AI is
Replacing Human Decision Makers e.g. Healthcare, Social
Security And Legal Dispute Resolution
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Usage Control and Privacy Protection in the AI Systems
Managing / Interpreting Data Flows Arising From the IoT
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Creating
Regulatory
Frameworks
to Govern the
Conduct of /
Dispute
Resolution for
DAOs
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Defining Legal
Frameworks
for Emerging
Health Mega-
Sectors e.g.
Age
Extension and
Human
Enhancement
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Determining Governance and Monitoring Frameworks for
Science Research Designed and Conducted Entirely by AI
Systems E.G. Creation of New Lifeforms
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So How do we Start the Journey?
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Professional Immersion, Client Events and Research
e.g. Science Labs, VC Investments, Crowdfunding
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Rapid Action
Teams
(Internal and
Client)
10 Day
Prototypes,
30 Day
Launch,
Refine in Use
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First they ignore you,
then they laugh at you,
then they fight you,
then you win.
Mahatma Gandhi
Thank You
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About Fast Future
FutureScapes:
The Future of Business
Edited By
Rohit Talwar
Launched June 2015
10% discount
Use coupon code rt1 at checkout
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Rohit Talwar
• Global futurist and founder of Fast Future Research.
• Award winning speaker on future insights and strategic innovation –
addressing leadership audiences in 40 countries on 5 continents
• Author of Designing Your Future
• Profiled by UK’s Independent Newspaper as one of the Top 10 Global
Future Thinkers
• Led futures research, scenario planning and strategic consultancy projects
for clients in telecommunications, technology, pharmaceuticals, banking,
travel and tourism, environment, food and government sectors
• Clients include 3M, BBC, BT, BAe, Bayer, Chloride, DTC De Beers, DHL,
EADS, Electrolux, E&Y, GE, Hoover, Hyundai, IBM, ING, Intel, KPMG,
M&S, Nakheel, Nokia, Nomura, Novartis, OECD, Orange, Panasonic,
Pfizer, PwC, Samsung, Shell, Siemens, Symbian, Yell , numerous
international associations and governments agencies in the US, UK,
Finland, Dubai, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Singapore.
• To receive Fast Future’s newsletters please email rohit@fastfuture.com
Videos of Rohit Exploring the Future
The World in 2025 - Driving Forces, Global Challenges and Potential
Disruptions (35 mins) http://vimeo.com/93302584
Anticipating 2025 - Driving forces, global challenges and potential
disruptions (30 mins): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwcLQCIfxpY
A World in Transition (60 mins):
http://www.colliers.com/en-gb/uk/insights/multimedia
Future of Travel (22 mins)
http://www.travelmole.tv/watch_vdo.php?id=14300
Parallel Revolutions Impacting Global Labor: Bloomberg TV Interview (4
mins): http://www.bloomberg.com/video/parallel-revolutions-impacting-
global-labor-talway-T0tJZRX6TpGIxjKShTzv~w.html
Useful Sources
• Genetic profiling - https://www.23andme.com/
• X Prize - Breakthrough innovation projects - http://www.xprize.org/
• Google brain uploading - http://digitaljournal.com/article/352787
• Brain mapping projects - http://www.technologyreview.com/news/513011/why-obamas-brain-mapping-project-matters/
• Global Future 2045 (immortality) http://2045.com/
• Human enhancement - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_enhancement
• Wearable technology – Google Project Glass - http://www.google.com/glass/start/
• Emotiv Epoc Brain-Computer Interface - http://www.emotiv.com/
• AI Essay Grading Software - http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/05/science/new-test-for-computers-grading-essays-at-college-
level.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
• Digital / Crypto currencies –
– http://www.abc.net.au/technology/articles/2013/09/25/3855973.htm
– http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency
– http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cryptocurrencies
• Autonomous cars -
– http://www.engineering.com/DesignerEdge/DesignerEdgeArticles/ArticleID/6357/Tesla-Working-on-Autonomous-Car.aspx
– http://www.popsci.com/cars/article/2013-09/google-self-driving-car
Contact Information
Email rohit@fastfuture.com
Phone +44 (0)7973 405145
Web http://www.fastfuture.com
Twitter http://twitter.com/fastfuture
Blog http://widerhorizons.wordpress.com
LinkedIn http://www.linkedin.com/in/talwar
Past presentations http://www.slideshare.net/fastrohit
Newsletter signup http://fastfuture.com/?page_id=13
• IBM
• Main A.I. Technologies: IBM Watson remains the grandfather of A.I. technologies and
IBM’s main investment in the space.
• Key Advantages: IBM’s strong enterprise customer base is a unique asset when it
comes to the monetization of A.I. technologies.
• Monetization Models: IBM is likely to monetize A.I. via large enterprise software and
services deals.
• Network Effects: IBM’s strong services partner as well as the Watson developer
community are relevant network effects that could play a factor in the monetization of
A.I. technologies.
• Microsoft
• Main A.I. Technologies: Microsoft’s main A.I. investments include technologies like
Cortana, Microsoft Cognitive Services, and Azure Machine Learning.
• Key Advantages: Microsoft should be able to leverage its large enterprise customer
base as well as consumer presence with technologies like Windows, Office, Skype,
and Xbox as monetization channels for its A.I. technology.
• Monetization Models: Given its presence in both the consumer and enterprise
spaces, Microsoft should be able to monetize A.I. via large enterprise deals as well as
consumer products.
• Network Effects: Microsoft’s partner and developer communities as well as the strong
user base of products like Office and Skype are strong network effects to be
considered.
• Main A.I. Technologies: Facebook’s main A.I. investments include technologies like
M, Wit.ai, and Facebook Messenger Platform.
• Key Advantages: Facebook Messenger’s strong user base is a unique competitive
advantage that Facebook can use when monetizing A.I. technologies. Also,
Facebook’s early presence in the VR market with technologies like Oculus can also
be relevant.
• Monetization Models: Facebook is likely to monetize A.I. by leveraging its strong user
base using mechanisms like advertising, commerce services, and others.
• Network Effects: The viral models built in the Facebook and Facebook Messenger
platforms are a unique network effect that can be used to commercialize A.I.
technologies.
• Amazon
• Main A.I. Technologies: Amazon’s biggest investments in A.I. technologies include the
Alexa platform, consumer devices like Echo and Dot, as well as the AWS Machine
Learning platform.
• Key Advantages: Amazon’s ecommerce user and customer base is a strong channel
for the distribution of A.I. technologies. Additionally, AWS’s dominance in the cloud
platform space should also help to uniquely position this type of technology.
• Monetization Models: Amazon is likely to monetize A.I. technologies via its large
consumer base as well as enterprise deals via AWS.
• Network Effects: The AWS developer and partner communities is a strong network
effect to consider when evaluating Amazon’s A.I. technologies. Additionally, Amazon’s
consumer base has proven to be an extremely strong distribution mechanism.
• Apple
• Main A.I. Technologies: Siri remains Apple’s main investment in A.I. technologies
today.
• Key Advantages: Apple’s iOS, iPhone, and iPad customer base could be a unique
distribution model for A.I. technologies. Other media properties like Apple Music can
also be relevant in this area.
• Monetization Models: Apple is likely to monetize A.I. technologies leveraging its large
iPhone and iPad customer base.
• Network Effects: Siri, the Apple Store app, and the viral effects built into iOS apps can
result in strong network effects when commercializing Apple’s A.I. technologies.
• Google
• Main A.I. Technologies: Google has made significant investments in A.I. across its
technology portfolio. DeepMind, open A.I. platforms like TensorFlow, smart devices
like Google Home, mobile apps like Google Assistant, hardware components like the
TPU Chip and, of course, the Google Self-Driving Car are some examples.
• Existing Assets: Google’s dominance in search and advertisement as well as its
ownership of the Android mobile OS are unique assets that can be used when
monetizing A.I. technologies.
• Monetization Models: Google is likely to monetize A.I. technologies using its strong
consumer and enterprise customer base.
• Network Effects: Google’s online assets like Search, and AdWords, as well as its
presence in the mobile space are strong network effects that can play a role in the
monetization of A.I. technologies.
CIO Magazine, 30/5/2016, http://www.cio.com/article/3076154/internet-of-things/the-race-to-monetize-artificial-intelligence-is-on.html#tk.rss_all
Are High Stress Decisions Best Made by Bots?
• Nigel Duffy, CTO of Sentient, an AI enterprise platform, is concerned with the actual
actions and behaviors of these “intelligent systems” in the world.
• One area that’s particularly hot, Duffy says, is in industries dependent on rapid
decision-making in closed feedback loops—like high-frequency trading in finance.
• High frequency trading, a form of algorithmic buying and selling of assets, accounts
for a big portion of daily trades in some financial markets. Based on instructions
coded in software, computers can complete large trades in fractions of a second.
• Computers will soon outperform even the best doctors at diagnosing illnesses,
because of the rapid growth of processing power, a government technology adviser
has said.
• Richard Susskind said that in the coming years, patients would be able to take
pictures of their ailments and receive an accurate, computer-generated diagnosis.
• The reason for giving robots pain sensors is the same as for existing biological
adaptations—to ensure a reaction that will lessen the damage incurred by our bodies,
and perhaps, even more importantly, to help us to remember to avoid similar
situations in the future.
• In the case of the robots, the researchers have built an electric network behind the
fingertip sensor meant to mimic nerve pathways below the skin in animals, allowing
the robot to "feel" what has been programmed to describe various types, or degrees
of pain.
• If a robot acts the same way a human does when touching a hot plate, are we to
believe it is truly experiencing pain?
• And if so, will lawmakers find the need to enact laws to prevent cruelty to robots, as is
the case with animals?
• As robotics technology advances, researchers are more often forced to make hard
decisions, some of which may fall entirely outside the domain of engineers.
• The company has said it’s creating a new optical chip that relies on silicon photonics
in order to make its augmented-reality images work, so the idea that it’s also poking
around in robotics, or at least robotics-related AI, would fit in with its efforts to explore
a range of technologies.
• Magic Leap spokeswoman Julia Gaynor had no comment on what the company may
be doing in the AI robotics space.
• Room service robots, robot bank tellers, and voice-controlled personal assistants
were the hot topics at an AI forum in Beijing.
• Participants said they were expecting a boom in sales of service robots in the next
five years in China, as the country's AI revolution accelerates.
• The Chinese market for service robots will be worth 30 billion yuan (4.6 billion U.S.
dollars) by 2020.
• Consultants: Consultants are not going away anywhere soon. As businesses and
governments reduce cost by scaling down permanent employees, there will be a
growing market for management consultants to provide need-based services. There
will also be a huge market for specialists to provide on-demand scientific and
technology consulting. You can spread your business net far and wide providing
inputs remotely through the Internet or video calls as required.
• This briefing introduces Artificial Intelligence (A.I) as it is applied in industry today, and
outlines what the United Kingdom can do to take full advantage of the technology.
The briefing covers four areas the Implications of robotics and artificial intelligence for
the UK, gaining and maintaining primacy in A.I technologies, the social and economic
opportunities afforded by A.I technologies and issues in developing robotic and
artificial intelligence technologies.
• A.I, robotics and automated processes are highly likely to displace vast amounts of
the labour force within the next two decades, potentially 15 million jobs are amenable
to automation, by either robotics or software, and cover an ever-broadening range of
occupations.
• Changes in the distribution of the capital-labour ratio will lead to a hollowing out of
low, mid and high skill workers.
• For the first time, an unmanned robot has successfully performed surgery on pigskin
as a replacement for soft tissue.
• Welcome to the age of autonomous surgery. The robot’s programming directs its
suture placement based on choices made during technically ideal (human-performed)
surgeries.
• The robot didn’t operate alone – a consultant had to show it where to stitch – but on
occasion, it worked faster and more accurately than a human.
• The robot’s computer developed and adapted its suturing approach as it received
information from the imaging system.
• The Decision Automation Map can be used by managers, investors, regulators, and
policy makers to answer questions regarding automated decision making. It can help
people prioritize automation initiatives, and it can highlight problems for which the
required expertise is learnable by machines from data with minimal preprogramming
and for which error costs are low.
• The DA-MAP also shows examples of movements for the various problems, along
with possible “automation frontiers” between human- and machine-appropriate
decision problems.
• An automation frontier (represented by the dotted lines) is an upward sloping line that
represents the existing boundary between acceptable predictability and error. A
higher cost per error requires a higher level of predictability for automation. The
convex frontier in the figure represents a more stringent automation barrier than the
linear one.
• DLA Piper has partnered with Canadian tech firm Kira Systems to launch an artificial
intelligence tool for document review during M&A transactions.
• Kira Systems has developed machine-learning software, which will be available for
DLA Piper lawyers across the global firm, to search and analyse text in contracts.
• Billed as something of a Summly, but for legal contracts rather than shortening news
for people in a rush, the software can handle standard and non-standard forms and
provisions, including documents in more than 60 formats, by automating the
extraction and analysis of key contract provisions and creating summaries in seconds
and analysis in just a few minutes.
• In the race to be the go-to authority on Brexit, Dentons’ approach is apparently tech-
heavy.
• In addition to RAVN’s artificial intelligence tool, the firm, together with Nextlaw, is also
developing a software application that takes stock of a company’s risk exposures and
automatically creates a ”Brexit Action Plan.”
• According to the firm’s statement, clients will be able to log into a website, select the
key issues their businesses are concerned with, and based on this information the
website will produce the action plan.
• The firm’s rollout of the ACE robot and the action plan software provides more fodder
for an ongoing conversation about the rise of artificial intelligence in law practice:
including whether AI lawyers are “enablers” or “disrupters,” and whether the term is a
marketing buzzword or a reality.
• Dentons also highlighted its “Brexit Connect” tool is a secure online portal featuring
useful information from the firm.
• “Brexit Connect” features briefing notes on the impact of Brexit across different
sectors; materials from the Firm's internal "Brexit Bootcamp" fee-earner training
sessions; recordings of webinars that have been delivered to clients across North
America, Europe, Asia and the UK; third party source material; an events calendar;
and an "Expert Locator" of key partner contacts.
• Chatbots are the next chapter for businesses wanting to improve their automated
legal document services.
• LawPath recently released a chatbot, or ‘bot’, to test how it could better service
clients looking for customised legal privacy solutions. ‘Lexi’ is a privacy policy bot and
an experiment in the automated delivery of legal documents. The conversational
instant-messaging interface is able to provide consumers with privacy law information
and generate a real-time compliance policy specific to a client’s needs.
• LawPath’s trial is an example of how the “static” nature of completing online forms
can shift to become a more engaging experience.
• Lexi may be the beginning of what will be a proliferation of bots in the delivery of legal
services.
• The future game-changer will be integrating bot-type platforms with more complex AI
and machine-learning systems.
Australasian Lawyer, 10/8/2016, http://www.australasianlawyer.com.au/news/international-law-firm-joins-effort-to-create-online-legal-ai-apps-
221228.aspx
Law firms of the future will be filled with robot lawyers
• They are creating a future in which a costly and inefficient legal system actually
becomes an attractive way for the average citizen to protect his or her civil liberties.
• One of the first places to use ROSS was the law firm BakerHostetler, where the
software handles bankruptcy cases. Employees enter commands into the software in
everyday language, like when they need to find examples of precedence for specific
cases. ROSS then searches through its legal database to produce the relevant
information.
• By using AI lawyers like ROSS, law firms can charge lower fees since they won't be
paying humans (who generally prefer to get paid for their work) to handle clients'
cases. In addition, out-of-work lawyers can use AI services like ROSS, which offer a
lower barrier of entry into the market, to create more affordable options for clients.
• ExpectsAI to start drafting its own documents, building arguments, and comparing
and contrasting past cases with the one at hand.
• In using technology, lawyers must understand the technology that they are using to
assure themselves they are doing so in a way that complies with their ethical
obligations — and that the advice the client receives is the result of the lawyer’s
independent judgment.
• What if the lawyer using AI, in his or her unintentional lack of knowledge of how to
use the technology, feeds the wrong data, and asks the wrong question? What is the
effect? The wrong answer will result. But will anyone know it is wrong? It looks and
feels the same at the end point.
• A lawyer, at least, is ethically required not to blindly accept the answer, and is trained
to perhaps spot mistakes. Lay people accessing AI legal services directly without a
lawyer have no such advantage, and might not know that something is wrong until
they have relied on the wrong answer and taken a legal step, and it is too late.
• Right now, there is no regulatory scheme. This creates significant uncertainty for both
the legal profession and the AI legal technology industry itself, which do not know
what they can and cannot do with any commercial certainty.
• At least for now, there is also significant danger to the public at large. Stepping into
this regulatory void is a necessary step, but the opportunity to do so does not exist
indefinitely.
• Lawyers are increasingly breaking away from law firms that fail to keep up with
technology.
• The slow uptake of technology in traditional law firms is going to spark a “tidal wave”
of legal start-ups as lawyers branch out on their own.
• This rise of legal start-ups will in turn inspire a faster uptake of technology within
firms.
• George Beaton of Beaton Capital: “Our view is that there’s going to be exponential
growth, rapidly escalating, as firms begin to realise others are coming along and
bypassing them, disintermediating them, and providing services directly to clients,
and that is happening.”
• Firms are divided into three groups when it comes to technology and innovation:
those that are active, those that are observing and those that are oblivious.
• Those that are active are already responding to the increase in legal start-ups.
Lawyers Weekly, 20/7/2016, http://www.lawyersweekly.com.au/news/19169-tidal-wave-of-law-start-ups-to-come
Bring on the litigation bots!
• Why should anything happen in the next five years, that hasn’t in the last 100?
• Against those challenges, firms must look for ways to become more visible online by:
• Legal work is already being computerized by some firms, including the drafting of
simple contracts and the search for evidence in reams of documents.
• Winston & Strawn is among the law firms that have adopted legal review technology
known as predictive coding. Lawyers mark up relevant information in a subset of
documents and feed that to a computer program that uses it as a basis for analyzing
the entire data set. The software then surfaces potentially relevant evidence for
review by lawyers.
• In a recent study, the firm found that its software was more effective than human
reviewers in surfacing relevant documents, and helped it complete the review process
in about a third of the time.
• Industry experts say computers will soon be able to perform even more advanced
legal functions than document reviews.
• New York Supreme Court censured law firm Cohen & Slamowitz for relying on
technology to automatically send collection letters and file tens of thousands of
lawsuits each year without reviewing the case files.
• In addition, the Electronic Frontier Foundation has accused Warner Bros. of using
software algorithms to file mounds of erroneous copyright-infringement notices for
online video sites like YouTube without actually reviewing the files in question.
• Daniel Katz, an assistant professor at the Michigan State University College of Law is
among the vanguard of legal researchers working to bring empiricism and artificial
intelligence into law.
• Katz’s focus is "quantitative legal prediction“ with which "Lawyers will be able to say
to their clients, 'Here's what we think your chances are—and based on 10,000 cases
that are just like yours, here's what the computer thinks your chances are,‘”
• Many law firms now use "e-discovery" tools that can scan large caches of evidence in
search of interesting facts and figures.
• Firms also have software to draft legal documents in a fraction of the time a human
would take.
• A few services on the horizon might do even more—negotiate the terms of a contract,
for instance, or determine whether or not you should sue.
• Automation will bring legal services to the masses.
• Software could potentially step in when to fight your mortgage lender, draw up
contracts to start a small business, or sue for child-support payments.
• Several legal tech companies have created programs that build these documents
automatically.
• Silicon Valley law firm Fenwick & West developed a system that automatically creates
the documents that startups need when incorporating.
Slate, 29/9/2011, http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/robot_invasion/2011/09/will_robots_steal_your_job_5.html
Software could kill lawyers
• Katz and other researchers are working on ways to extract and interpret historical
data—one project, called RECAP, aims to build a free mirror of PACER the federal
courts' database system, which charges a fee for access.
• In 2008, a group of attorneys and technologists at Stanford created the Intellectual
Property Litigation Clearinghouse, a project that tracks more than 100,000 patent and
trademark lawsuits. The database—which Stanford spun off into a start-up called Lex
Machina—is the most comprehensive collection of patent suits ever assembled.
• As Daniel Katz sees it, attorneys will be able to outsource the worst of the jobs to
machines, while they'll increasingly focus on managing client relationships and
ensuring the computers are doing their jobs.
• Katz and his colleagues have created an algorithm that has accurately predicted 70
percent of the Supreme Court’s overall decisions, and 71 percent of the votes of
individual justices -- more robust results than any other predictive study done to date.
• Applying various techniques from machine learning, the algorithm takes into account
dozens of variables before it makes a prediction.
• Katz believes the results represent a major advance in how science and data can be
used to help predict legal outcomes. But that the best approach to predictive models
is a combination of his analytics-based prediction and human expertise.
• Abstract: A model was designed to predict the voting behavior of the Supreme Court
of the United States. Using the extremely randomized tree method, a method similar
to the random forest approach, as well as novel feature engineering, we predict more
than sixty years of decisions by the Supreme Court of the United States (1953-2013).
• The model is distinctive as it is the first robust, generalized, and fully predictive model
of Supreme Court voting behavior offered to date.
• With a more sound methodological foundation, results represent a major advance for
the science of quantitative legal prediction and portend a range of other potential
applications,
• These changes would bring about a very different looking law firm, structurally, with
virtually no place for lower level associates or assistants. Practices would have to
shift their business model to focus on advisory work and the knowhow of high level
employees.
• While the upheaval in career paths and implied “structural collapse” of law firms can
seem troubling, the idea of leaving the grunt work to robots – in the law world as well
as other data driven businesses – thus leaving the critical/creative thinking and
empathizing to humans, could be a more fulfilling professional future for all.
• Rocket Lawyer UK head Mark Edwards says legal professionals have nothing to fear
from technological developments in the legal services sector.
• Mr Edwards challenges the commonly held view that as a growing number of legal
functions become automated or performed by 'smart' machines, there will be an
inevitable downturn in lawyer headcount.
• On the contrary, he believes that modernising the legal industry is key to ensuring the
sustainability, and even growth, of jobs in the sector.
• 1) Become speedy algorithmic angels: The time has come where the legal eco-
system requires algorithmic angels. It needs lawyers who can interpret that the AI is
right about the law (be an algorithmic advisor) and also who are willing to productise
their legal expertise. That is, lawyers who are willing to place their high-end
intellectual capital into algorithmic software to enable the end-user/client to help
themselves with their legal conundrums.
• 2) Help clients to help themselves more: the raison d’etre of KIM, Riverview Law’s
virtual assistant and AI platform is helping clients to help themselves. And monetising
it effectively. Profitably.
3) Focus on relationship intelligence: We’re now in the business of technology,
where the primary role of the lawyer going forward will be to provide an emotionally
intelligent, supportive relationship to clients and GCs.
• The current technology players with a small foothold in the CC, AI, and robot legal
field range from established blue-chip tech providers to new start-ups, and they deal
with different aspects of the lawyer’s role.
• If we break down a lawyer’s tasks in a legal project from beginning to end, we will find
that there is a technology that can handle the majority of these tasks far more quickly
and accurately than a human lawyer.
• A lot has been written about IBM Watson, KIM (the AI platform) of Riverview Law and
even RAVN Systems being deployed in a handful of law firms in relation to
commoditisation, research and reasoning.
• But I wanted to hear of a smart technology that could provide the final element:
judgement.
• If I am correct, Neota Logic is the tool with the potential to augment a human lawyer’s
intelligence to a level not exploited before.
• AI has the potential to be a real boon for the legal-ecosystem in a very positive way. It
will help improve the quality of lawyering with regard to accuracy, advice, time
savings and cost savings for lawyers and firms.
• The challenge for small firms is to consider current AI system options (such as Kira,
Ravn, IBM Watson, Neota logic) for the purpose to suit their business models and
realise that the cost does not need to be beyond their reach.
• They can embrace AI and cognitive computing by simply beginning the conversations
with the providers and understanding what exactly is possible from solo lawyer to
international behemoth.
• All of these AI systems handle large (and smaller) quantities of structured and
unstructured data, and can assist with advocacy and advisory related legal issues.
• If the advantages of IT seen in other sectors were enjoyed by the courts, the labour-
intensive, cumbersome, and paper-based systems for court administration could be
replaced by an automated, streamlined, and largely paper-free set of systems that
would be less costly, less prone to error, more efficient, and more accessible.
• If England seriously aspires to being a leading global centre for the resolution of
disputes, then there should be state-of-the-art, leading-edge systems, processes, and
infrastructure in place to support this.
• Looking ahead to the long-term future of courts and dispute resolution, one
fundamental question sets the agenda: is court a service or a place?
• To resolve disputes, do parties and their advisers need to congregate together in one
physical space, in order to present arguments to a judge?
• The growing use of video-calling and video-conferencing suggests there is enormous
scope for virtual courts, if not for trials then for earlier hearings, when judges could sit
in their chambers and all participants could attend remotely.
• For tomorrow's lawyers, appearance in physical courtrooms may become a rarity.
Virtual appearances will become the norm, and new presentational and advocacy
skills will be required.
• Once AI can be designed to employ proper legal reasoning, there is little reason to
turn back.
• The IAAIL (International Association for Artificial Intelligence and Law), a nonprofit
association working in the field, started off in the early eighties, and slowly gained
traction as people recognized the possibilities.
• The ICAIL (International Conference on Artificial Intelligence & Law) conference
became a staple in 1987.
• JURIX (Foundation for Knowledge Based Systems) conferences have been occurring
regularly in Europe since 1988. Students, experts, scientists and lawyers have been
gathering, writing and reading about the topic for decades, now.
• Companies and firms are focusing on very specific AI usages, at the moment.
• Companies looking to use AI extensively will more likely have a completely different
structure than typical, established firms.
• Real pioneers will emerge as alternative firms, new entrants to the legal scene, and
third party options.
• External companies offering AI applications are already growing. They are able to
automate small tasks for firms.
• The Agent Applications, Research and Technology (Agent ART) Group at Liverpool
University has already partnered with UK firm Riverview Law.
• They have set up a “knowledge transfer partnership” to help the university team
develop AI specifically for the field of law. The end goal is established several
different areas of expertise, including text processing, network analysis,
computational argumentation and data mining.
Dataconomy, 17/3/2016, http://dataconomy.com/ai-future-law-lawyers-know/
Deep Blue sky thinking: The cutting edge of legal AI
• Total venture capital investment in the US legal tech industry rose from around $66m
in 2012 to around $465m in 2013
• Legal Zoom, Rocket Lawyer and Axiom were the top three beneficiaries, between
them raising over $250m that year.
• Though reliable statistics are hard to come by, the figure is estimated at over $400m
for 2014.
• According to Professor Oliver Goodenough, director of the Centre for Legal
Innovation at Vermont Law School, the legal tech industry is now worth up to $30bn
(around 10% of the annual value of the US legal industry).
• While the legal tech market has traditionally been dominated by e-discovery providers
or suppliers of software to large firms, tradeshows are increasingly attended by
companies that are looking to offer services directly to clients.
• While it may be some time before automated legal reasoning is fully incorporated into
practical systems, the ‘weak’ or ‘soft’ AI incorporated in these and many more start-
ups’ offerings is thought by many to be the most likely means of producing a seismic
shift in the legal market, realistically within the next five to ten years.
• If computers struggle to comprehend legal language, what if humans instead wrote
laws in a language that computers can understand?
• The Computable Contracts Initiative at Stanford is working on developing a universal
Contract Definition Language (CDL) – a rules-based logic programming language
designed for expressing contracts – that will allow terms and conditions to be
represented in a machine-understandable way. An automated contracting system
would, at least in principle, be able to check a contract’s validity with respect to the
laws as well as calculate the utility of a contract for achieving certain aims.
• While computable contracts would only be used within an established supply chain or
institutional trading network, smart contracts are designed for any type of commercial
transaction.
• The term smart contract was first proposed by the cryptographer and legal scholar
Nick Szabo in 1993, but serious attempts to create such a platform have only just
begun.
• One notable development in this field is Ethereum, a programming platform that helps
distribute smart contracts among users.
• What looks most likely to impact on law in the foreseeable future is a change in mind-
set and a growing demand that firms approach more legal problems via tech-backed
systems rather than as a guild of high-status professionals.
• In law, this looks to be the prime suspect to deliver the ‘disruptive innovation’ whereby
new entrants up-end the business model of leading industry players.
• In the short-to-medium term, the most fertile ground for such disruption is the routine-
heavy areas of law involving large groups of contracts and huge amounts of data,
such as litigation discovery and compliance work.
• More powerful forms of AI may be the fuel that dramatically accelerates this process,
but the productisation of law is where the real progress is currently being made.
• Several academics support the idea of an “information fiduciary”: giving people who
collect big data and use AI the legal duties of good faith and trustworthiness.
• For example, technologists might be held responsible if they use poor quality data to
train AI systems, or fossilize prejudices based on race, age, or gender into the
algorithms they design.
• As government institutions increasingly rely on AI systems for decision making, those
institutions will need personnel who understand the limitations and biases inherent in
data and AI technology, including teaching students ethics alongside programming
skills.
• 20 UTS law students will create artificial intelligence applications that promote access
to justice and make tailored legal information more reachable.
• Melbourne Law School also has a tech-based program called Law Apps through a
partnership with Neota Logic and law firm Slater and Gordon.
• Law Apps students design and build legal help websites to provide the public with
fast, accurate and cost-effective information about common legal problems, including
inaccurate credit reports, handling and managing fines, and assessing employment
rights.
• Artificial Intelligence and the Law Conference was held April 13-14, 2016 at Vanderbilt
Law School.
• Richard Susskind address/Q&A: “The Future of the Professions: How technology is
changing the way professionals work and provide services”
• Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xs0iQSyBoDE
• Susskind addressed the ways in which advances in artificial intelligence, virtual
reality, machine learning and collaboration tools in the Internet age are fundamentally
altering the legal landscape and all professions. New commercial models of sharing
expertise are replacing the traditional professional bargain. Serious ethical issues are
being raised about who should control and manage this professional shift. Decisions
being made today are forming the platform for a radically new professional
environment.
• Andrew Arruda discusses how ROSS can be integrated into the work of any firm or
practice.
• Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LF08X5_T3Oc
1. Watson is almost certainly the most significant technology ever to come to law, and it
will give lawyers permission to think innovatively and open up the conversation about
what is possible in a field that has been somewhat “stuck.” IBM and Sloan-Kettering
have collaborated on a video talking about how Watson can help treat cancer patients
better. We have no videos like that anywhere in law—maybe we should. (strategic
opportunity?)
2. Watson will force a much more rigorous conversation about the actual structure of
legal knowledge. Statutes, regulations, how-to-guides, policies, contracts and of
course case law don’t work together especially well, making it challenging for systems
like Watson to interpret them.
• Compared to fintech, why have such leaps in innovation not been observed in the
legal services industry?
• Though recently we have seen an uprise in B2C businesses within legaltech.
• Modria is an e-commerce dispute-resolution platform enabling consumers to avoid
the tedious bureaucracy involved in settling a dispute.
• Remedying a similar need is Fixed, an app that appeals parking fines on your behalf.
Fixed is becoming increasingly popular after appearing on Shark Tank and receiving
a $700,000 investment from Mark Cuban.
• Another very interesting consumer business is SupportPay, a platform that enables
separated parents to divide childcare costs in a simple, yet effective manner.
• The legaltech industry is still in its early years. The industry is only about five years
old, and many legaltech startups are not older than this.
• The delay in the development of the legaltech industry is partly because lawyers
present a formidable challenge to change due to their knowledge of the law and
proximity to policy makers.
• Now is the opportune moment for legaltech to take-off.
• Pinsent Masons has developed a program that reads and analyses clauses in loan
agreements.
• The TermFrame system also helps guide lawyers through transactions and point
them towards the correct precedents at each stage of a process.
• ROSS Intelligence, a voice recognition app powered by IBM’s Watson, the AI that
doles out legal assistance.
• Ross focuses on bankruptcy and insolvency law, though ultimately could move into
other areas.
• Ross could curb research time: attorneys devote nearly a fifth of their working hours
to legal research and law firms spend $9.6 billion on research annually.
• The app could also help unburden much of the basic legal gruntwork outsourced to
places like India and the Philippines.
• They’ve tested the system in small-scale pilot programs inside law firms since June,
and they’re confident in the results they’re seeing so far.
• A subsidiary of global law firm Dentons, NextLaw Labs, has signed ROSS Intelligence
as its first portfolio company.
• Dentons, has set up NextLaw Labs, a virtual company which looks at the application
of technology with the law.
• It has invested in ROSS, an IBM Watson-powered legal adviser app that streamlines
legal research, saving lawyers’ time and clients’ money.
• ROSS is currently being pilot-tested at Dentons and approximately 20 other law firms.
• Andrew Arruda discusses how ROSS can be integrated into the work of any firm or
practice.
• Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LF08X5_T3Oc
• BakerHostetler has formally hired its first “digital attorney,” ROSS, as an artificially
intelligent legal researcher.
• ROSS is working with BakerHostetler’s bankruptcy team as part of a partnership first
announced last month, at Vanderbilt Law School’s “Watson, Esq.” conference on law
and artificial intelligence. Andrew Arruda, co-founder of ROSS Intelligence, the
company behind the AI lawyer, said in an email that other law firms are also planning
to sign licenses with ROSS.
• Ravn's Applied Cognitive Engine, or Ravn 'ACE' can search, read, interpret and
summarise vast amounts of unstructured data, 10 million times faster than its human
counterparts.
• Founded in 2010, Ravn Systems specialised in next generation enterprise search,
moving into artificial intelligence in March 2015. Impressively, Ravn has built a brand
without any investment, growing entirely organically.
• Ravn ACE retrieves specific information by sifting through folders, files and
documents, essentially producing meaningful information from unstructured and
disorganised data. This process mimics what a human would do to extract important
information from a document, but at a much faster rate and more accurately.
• Ravn ACE is a relatively generic software model, lending itself to index any manner of
documents over countless sectors. So within this there are domain-specific
configurations
Tech World, 25/4/2016, http://www.techworld.com/startups/heres-how-ravn-systems-is-harnessing-power-of-ai-3638980/
Berwin Leighton Paisner: Ravn
• Berwin Leighton Paisner (BLP) has successfully implemented Ravn ACE to speed up
mass data processing.
• This has resulted in a lighter workload for employees, more accurate data readings
and an all round boost in efficiency.
• Developed in conjunction with tech start-up RAVN, BLP's 'contract robot' can
complete legal work which would take a team of paralegals and associates months to
do within seconds.
• It is currently assisting the firm's real estate team.
• Called LONald, the robot extracts data from Land Registry documents and enters it
into a spreadsheet in the same way staff would do.
• It cross-checks data points to remove duplicates and then uses the spreadsheet to
send queries out.
• Linklaters has become the first magic circle firm to sign up to an artificial intelligence
provider.
• The firm has signed a deal to take on AI service provider RAVN as its provider for a
number of automated tasks.
• According to its website, RAVN offers a wide variety of services with its AI engine.
These include electronic discovery, various data search tools and contract
governance process automation.
• Linklaters has developed Verifi, a computer program that can sift through 14 UK and
European regulatory registers to check client names for banks. The company said it
could process thousands of names overnight.
• Hodge, Jones & Allen, a law firm, has worked with academics from University College
London to create software that assesses the merits of personal injury cases.
• Silicon Valley law firm Fenwick & West developed a system that automatically creates
the documents that startups need when incorporating.
• The software asks a series of questions and using branching logic to delve deeper
into specific areas, saving clients time and money.
• Riverview’s army of virtual paralegals are named “Kim”, which stands for “Knowledge,
Intelligence, Meaning.”
• Available in all English speaking countries, the firm has seen interest from both law
firms and in-house legal teams in Australia, Canada, US, NZ, Spain and the UK. A
Spanish version will be rolled out later this year.
• Riverview is setting-up a separate technology business to exploit its software and the
intellectual property that it has and is creating.
• It has launched a virtual assistant Kim designed to help legal teams make quicker
and better decisions.
• Kim has three varying levels of complexity including one level where a lawyer can ask
it to suggest the best order to renegotiate a series of corporate contracts.
• The Riverview Law Virtual Assistants are designed to help legal teams make quicker
and better decisions.
• They will be able to take on many tasks for lawyers, combining Riverview Law’s legal
domain expertise with automation, expert systems, reporting, visualisations and
artificial intelligence.
• Following extensive R&D, beta-testing and planning, the first Virtual Assistants
launched at a London press conference in Q1 2016, with more released throughout
2016.
• They are aimed at all businesses that have an in-house function and will be available
globally, including to other law firms.
• Winston & Strawn is among the law firms that have adopted legal review technology
known as predictive coding.
• Lawyers mark up relevant information in a subset of documents and feed that to a
computer program that uses it as a basis for analyzing the entire data set.
• The software then surfaces potentially relevant evidence for review by lawyers.
• In a recent study, the firm found that its software was more effective than human
reviewers in surfacing relevant documents, and helped it complete the review process
in about a third of the time.
• Currently, Hwang is proposing an idea called The Legal Innovation Defense (LID)
Fund.
• The idea is simple: the LID Fund will create a collective insurance program that
provides a defense system against the low probability, high impact possibility that a
new technology in the legal space will be later discovered to have engaged in UPL,
“The Uncertainty Loop”
• Most major Australian law firms will begin adopting cognitive computing technologies
within the next year, Allens CIO Philip Scorgie predicts.
• Hive Legal recently partnered with artificial intelligence provider Neota Logic to launch
the Hive Legal Super App, which assists regulated superannuation funds to
streamline and bring greater consistency to their breach assessment process.
• Repetitive issues often arise in highly regulated industries and lawyers can improve
their efficiency, as well as their clients’, by embracing artificial intelligence.
• There has been a blossoming of online initiatives designed to stick up for individuals
in the face of daunting, expensive litigation against companies or the government.
• There’s the ‘robot lawyer’, which features on the donotpay.co.uk website, and which
facilitates disgruntled members of the public appealing against parking fines. It was
set up by a computer student.
• There’s also Crowdjustice, a new online forum that allows members of the public at
large to offer financial support to specific public interest legal cases set up by a
former Linklaters associate.
• And then there’s CaseHub. Created by Michael Green, a recent Cambridge law
graduate, the website has been thrust into the media spotlight in recent days because
of a newly-featured case involving air-travel giant, Ryanair. The website, Green
hopes, is going to be suing Ryanair on disgruntled passengers’ behalf.
• Fixed is an app that appeals parking fines on your behalf. Fixed is becoming
increasingly popular after appearing on Shark Tank and receiving a $700,000
investment from Mark Cuban.
• Started in 2012, Ravel ingests the corpus of current and historical U.S. legal data,
using NLP and machine learning to map how cases interrelate, and how judges tend
to rule.
• Drew Winship, co-founder and CEO of Juristat, a startup focused on patent analytics.
• Juristat has launched Etro, a new tool that analyzes the language in a patent
application and forecasts important outcomes.
• Etro predicts which tech center the application will be routed to, the likelihood of its
rejection, whether the patent will be allowed, and the chance of an office action.
• “We’ve put a tank in the arsenal of a patent attorney.”
• The American Association of Law Libraries (AALL) selected Legal Analytics, a first-of-
its-kind software platform from Lex Machina, as its New Product of the Year for 2015.
• Lex Machina stands out from its predecessors as being the only start-up and legal
analytics company to receive this prestigious award (which is not bestowed every
year).
• The first comprehensive Trademark Litigation Report analyzed key metrics including
filings, findings, remedies, and damages in trademark cases pending from 2009
through the first quarter of 2015.
• The report reveals insights to the timing of the 6,900+ cases where permanent
injunctions were granted, and the over $9 billion in cumulative damages awarded in
trademark cases since 2009.
• Drawing on data from Lex Machina’s proprietary intellectual property litigation
database, these quantified insights into time-to-injunction, findings of infringement or
fair use, and damages won can be used to help attorneys budget cases and craft
winning strategies for trademark litigation.
• Data-centric hedge funds like Two Sigma and Renaissance Technologies have said
they rely on AI.
• Bridgewater Associates and Point72 Asset Management are moving in the same
direction.
• Sentient also focuses its attention on non-financial areas — it has worked with the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology on early identification of sepsis — but its
hedge fund arm utilises an exotic form of artificial intelligence known as “evolutionary
computation” inspired by how species develop over time.
• Artificial intelligence-focused Numerai raises $1.5m
• Simply put, Sentient “breeds” investing algorithms and splices the more successful
ones into new ones, and repeats the process continually. Occasionally it injects
randomness into its data to weed out weak algos. The algos analyse data to find the
best indicators, turn those into trading rules, and trading rules into full-blown trading
strategies with the sped-up computational evolution continually refining the outcome.
Ernst & Young, 2013, “Forensic data analytics: Globally integrated compliance review, litigation support and investigative services,”
http://www.ey.com/
Kasisto
• RBS is preparing to use an AI called “Luvo” to help customers with basic requests,
though complex customer-service questions will be passed along to a human.
• Technology products that are successful at the consumer level can sometimes find a
place within CPA firms to make them more productive.
• For example, File this.com uses uses artificial intelligence tools to organize the data
so it is ready for the CPA to provide guidance or prepare returns.
• MoneyStream, a new service from a Silicon Valley startup of the same name, links
your bank account to a range of services that together deliver personal finance
predictions
• The AI market is projected to expand to USD 5.05 billion by 2020 (from USD 419.7
million in 2014), at a CAGR of 53.65% from 2015 to 2020.
• Machine learning technology, a key component of the overall AI market, is estimated
to gain traction over the next five years, on account of higher anticipated demand in
media & advertising and finance sectors, as well as retail, healthcare, law, and oil &
gas.
• China has unveiled plans to inject more than CNY 100 billion (USD 15.26 billion) to
expand its artificial intelligence products market over the next three years.
• China aims to speed up manufacturing of products such as robots, home appliances
and mobile phones in order to develop new technologies and boost its sluggish
economy, as well as build platforms for fundamental AI resources and innovation and
undertake research and development to make breakthrough on basic core
technology
Nerds Magazine, 26/5/2016, http://nerdsmagazine.com/artificial-intelligence-roundup-google-art-ai-chinas-expansion-ai-monetary-policy/
AI Monetary Policy
• There is a strong possibility that AI may very well set the monetary policy of our
country one day.
• Key economic indicators, such as unemployment figures, GDP and federal fund rates
could be predicted by AI technology in the future, making thousands of banking and
trading professionals antiquated.
• So how exactly is AI going to define the fiscal policy in the future?
• AI will bridge the gap through machine learning, which already find applications in
various complex processes such as classifying DNA sequences, detecting credit-card
fraud, information retrieval, marketing, online advertising and stock market analysis.
• AI technology will have a significant impact on economic policy definitely within five
years. AI would be used to make more accurate predictions and would not seek to
replace the role of human economists.
• Hal Varian, chief economist at Google, remain skeptical of the technology and data
available to make a reliable forecast.
• According to Varian, the data sets are minuscule (since GDP is released on a
quarterly basis, 50 years of data make only 200 observations and only seven
recessions) and the technology needs to significantly improve before there is a
marked change in the economic calculations done by an AI, as compared to
traditional economists.
• Now banks will be required to implement so-called “open banking application program
interfaces”.
• The terminology is opaque, but if we fast forward ten years, this kind of technology,
which would allow different banking computer systems to interact, will be as
commonplace a way of managing our money as the internet is for shopping today.
• It also promises to be just as transformational. Think what file-sharing did to music,
gaming and movie delivery. This could just as big.
• Big Brother arrived a long time ago. He’s your bank manager.
• Banking consumer data is extraordinarily valuable and, subject to privacy constraints,
the technology is already there to allow it to be easily shared with third parties.
• The moment this happens, it completely cracks open the banking cartel, allowing
smart technology - applied through a mobile phone app - to hugely enhance the
efficiency of finance.
The Telegraph, 26/5/2016, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/26/bankers-are-now-facing-their-uber-moment/
A bot walks into a bank …
• As banks compete in the arena of apps, they also need to compete in the arena of
bots.
• Responding to natural language requests will become another facet of the customer
experience.
• Institutions like Capital One are already on Alexa, and Bank of America is building a
bot on Facebook Messenger.
• All banks are searching for ways to deliver new value and digital banking experiences
to this generation.
• There are two key ways a bank might squeeze value out of a bot:
• Big, established asset managers and hedge funds like BlackRock, Bridgewater and
Schroders are pouring money into technology and data management, snapping up
computer scientists to help them build and develop next-generation investment
systems that can outperform any human.
• For money managers attempting to navigate the chaos of financial markets, this
sounds enticing. AHL, the quantitative arm of Man Group, the hedge fund manager, is
among those now exploring whether deep learning can be applied to investing.
• Euclidean, a New York money manager, said in a recent note that it is also intrigued
by the possibilities.
• Thirty years from now will there still be a role for humans in Investment
Management?
• Vivienne Ming, co-founder and Managing Partner of Socos, a cutting-edge EdTech
company which applies cognitive modeling to align education with life outcomes, says
Big Data plus AI would essentially put all human level investors out of business and
create a dynamic in the investment world where artificial intelligence is outpacing
what individual humans can do.
• Do we allow Artificial Intelligence to simply distribute our money around for us and
reap the benefits or do we try actually leverage a roll into this future?
• What’s the preference of the investors themselves will not be a role for people in that
process they really enjoyed being able to go into a website answer a couple of
questions and if they get superior returns…there won’t be much else to do.
• Even for jobs that could be outsourced to an AI system, it was important to know how
to reverse engineer the process in the event of a malfunction or a system glitch that
could make customers lose money.
• On the other hand, AI systems could sub in for times when a personal banker was not
available to tend to customers
• In the spirit of Larry Lessig's declaration that "law is code," Jim Hazard has been
working for years to translate some of the best practices and tools of programmers
(like code re-use, version control systems, and hierarchies of variables) to the field of
law, in particular to contract formation.
• He calls his endeavor Common Accord, and he'd like to see it bring the benefits of
open source to both lawyers and their clients.
• If legal code, like contracts, is an intellectual product created by the government for
public benefit. Yet, it can only be distributed in the form of a product owned by private
law firms.
• Then law is much like proprietary software.
• But what if legal were like an operating system? What if it was open-sourced, and
transparent. What if anyone could navigate legal systems? What if the operating
system worked in most every language?
• This is the goal of Common Accord.
2. P2P forces friction-light transacting. Intermediaries will be reduced to their value add,
which might be nothing.
3. Payments are the core of transacting - but there is more. The "more" is often
intermediated by legal documents.
4. Legal document sourcing, can also be reduced to its value proposition. Documents are
text - software engineers know how to handle text.
7. Giving "us" - the edge - more leverage the against the centers.
• Commercial lawyers are watching the arrival of Ethereum closely given the potential
for smart contracts in the future to disintermediate their highly lucrative role in
drafting and exchanging paper contracts.
• Smart contracts are currently being used to digitise business rules, but may soon
move to codify legal agreements.
• The innovation has been made possible because Ethereum provides developers with
a more liberal "scripting language" than bitcoin, allowing companies to create their
own private blockchains and build applications.
• Already, apps for music distribution, sports betting and a new type of financial
auditing are being tested.
• Lawyers might be interested to know one of the first startups to apply for funding is
DAMN, or the Decentralised Arbitration and Mediation Network.
• DAMN also operates as a network of smart contracts on the Ethereum blockchain. It
is creating an "opt-in justice system for commercial transactions" to provide a new
form of cross border dispute resolution.
• Other companies and collectives are also pushing forward with the digitisation of legal
agreements, for example CommonAccord is creating global codes of legal
transactions, automating legal documents such as master service agreements.
• The pace of adaptation in the legal profession may be driven by the pace of
blockchain innovation in major clients such as the big banks.
• Commonwealth Bank of Australia, National Australia Bank and Westpac Banking
Corp were part of a global group of banks part of the R3 CEV consortium that
executed "smart contracts" on five test blockchains, including Ethereum.
• The smart contracts were programmed to facilitate issuance, secondary trading and
redemption of commercial paper.
• Barclays is using R3's Corda technology to build smart contracts; it is experimenting
with new versions of the standard derivative documentation issued by the
International Swaps and Derivatives Association.
• Norton Rose Fulbright’s Unlocking the Blockchain event suggested that “Blockchain
will radically impact the financial services sector” during a panel discussion about
blockchain technology and regulation at the event.
• The session focused on the potential applications, and emphasised the importance of
identifying how blockchain will help to remove client’s pain points in end-to-end
processes.
• Key issues remain in establishing appropriate regulatory settings, both domestically
and internationally, but there are promising signs of collaboration between the various
regulators.
• Nasdaq OMX group has announced that it will use bitcoin's blockchain technology to
facilitate the trading of shares in its stock market, signalling the most significant show
of interest from Wall Street in the cryptocurrency and its underlying technology.
• The pilot project, launched in Nasdaq Private Market, has the potential to transform
the way private companies conduct pre-IPO trading
• If successful, could mean the end to lawyers and other middlemen traditionally used
to verify the sales and transfers of shares of private companies.
• Nasdaq chief executive Robert Griefield said: "Utilising the blockchain is a natural
digital evolution for managing physical securities."
• By cutting costs and removing friction, decentralised applications are the foundation
of a true international peer-to-peer economy and possibly a truly free market.
• Over the next few years, structuring a business model on the blockchain technology
is going to be more common.
• As a result, an overlap between the traditional finance and blockchain will be
unavoidable.
• The most startling innovation we will witness is consumers using the technology on a
daily basis without being aware of it. However, in the context of commerce and e-
commerce, it is clear that blockchain technology is still a brave new world, and many
of the most significant use-cases have not yet been discovered.
• Norton Rose Fulbright’s Unlocking the Blockchain event suggested that “Blockchain
will radically impact the financial services sector” during a panel discussion about
blockchain technology and regulation at the event.
• The session focused on the potential applications, and emphasised the importance of
identifying how blockchain will help to remove client’s pain points in end-to-end
processes.
• Key issues remain in establishing appropriate regulatory settings, both domestically
and internationally, but there are promising signs of collaboration between the various
regulators.
• The DAO, created using the Bitcoin-inspired financial platform Ethereum, has
collected more than $100 million worth of cryptocurrency.
• The DAO is basically one big, complex smart contract comparable to a venture
capital fund.
• Its own voting shares—called DAO tokens—are exchanged for a cryptocurrency
called Ether, though for regulatory reasons, The DAO states its tokens are not a form
of equity.
• Ether is the financial component of the Ethereum blockchain. One Ether is currently
worth around ten dollars, and the currency’s total market value as of this writing is
over $800 million.
• How The DAO, the first Decentralized Autonomous Organization, performs on the
Ethereum blockchain after its launch will go a long way to affect other aspects of the
digital currency world.
• Clients can deposit their DAO tokens at launch and start trading by navigating in their
account to Funding > Deposit > DAO and creating a DAO deposit address.
• The DAO is considered to be just one of many DAOs. Lessons learned from it will be
applied to future iterations.
• The DAO, created using the Bitcoin-inspired financial platform Ethereum, has
collected more than $100 million worth of cryptocurrency.
• The DAO is basically one big, complex smart contract comparable to a venture
capital fund.
• Its own voting shares—called DAO tokens—are exchanged for a cryptocurrency
called Ether, though for regulatory reasons, The DAO states its tokens are not a form
of equity.
• Ether is the financial component of the Ethereum blockchain. One Ether is currently
worth around ten dollars, and the currency’s total market value as of this writing is
over $800 million.
• As with Bitcoin, some of the early uses of Ethereum are likely to involve illegal
activity; if you want to hedge against changes in the street price of cocaine, a smart
contract might be your only option.
• Ethereum could become a platform for online betting. Smart contracts could allow the
creation of complex, provably fair online games. Ethereum could also allow people to
bet on events (like elections) in countries (like the United States) where such
gambling is restricted by law.
• The hope is that the same characteristics of decentralization and flexibility will allow
people to build entirely new classes of applications that can't be built on top of
conventional financial and legal infrastructure.
• Gnosis is a tech company building both a prediction market to help DAOs make
decisions and and an oracle to help generate the data. "The blockchain itself doesn’t
know anything."
• A $15k grant from the Ethereum Foundation will fund three separate experiments on
Futarchy –a new form of governance that uses data from prediction markets to
provide input– using Gnosis technology.
• Ultimately, Gnosis intends to seek to do business with distributed organizations,
including The DAO, as it seeks to bring these governance concepts to fruition.
• Average hourly rate charged by major law firm partners nearly doubled since 2000,
while average hourly wages for both blue-collar and white-collar workers have
increased less than 20%.
• Lawyer pay has also outpaced economic growth, which has averaged less than 1%
per year in real terms over this period.
• Manhattan law firm, Cravath, Swaine & Moore, announced it was raising the average
salary for newly minted law graduates by nearly 13% to $180,000 per year.
• Washington, D.C.-based Kellogg Huber increased starting pay to as much as
$225,000.
• That 25-year-old lawyers with no experience can immediately be in the top 5% of
U.S. earners (and within ten years in the top 1%) has generated some outrage, as
well as claims that such salaries are needed to help overcome the high cost of law
school.
Forbes, 7/7/2016, http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2016/07/07/why-lawyer-salaries-are-skyrocketing/#6c79abca5f60
American Lawyer’s Top 10 firms of the 2015 Global 100
(ranked by 2014 revenue)
1. Latham & Watkins: $2,612,000,000
2. DLA Piper: $2,480,500,000 (verein)
3. Baker & McKenzie: $2,430,000,000 (verein)
4. Skadden: $2,315,000,000
5. Clifford Chance: $2,225,500,000
6. Kirkland & Ellis: $2,150,000,000
7. Allen & Overy: $2,112,000,000
8. Linklaters: $2,088,000,000
9. Freshfields: $2,052,500,000
10. Jones Day: $1,850,000,000
(Verein is a legal structure which basically allows separate profit pools to share a brand.)
Above the Law, 28/9/2015, http://abovethelaw.com/2015/09/the-global-100-the-worlds-top-law-firms-ranked-by-revenue-profit-and-headcount/
American Lawyer’s Top 10 firms of the 2015 Global 100
(ranked by 2014 revenue)
• Total Global 100 revenue rose 4.5 percent, to $92.7 billion
• At current growth rates, Global 100 revenues will top $100 billion within the next two
years.
• In March 2014, Dentons publicly announced that it would no longer release average
global profits per partner/lawyer data, explaining our view that, "in the age of global
law firms, which span multiple economies, cost structures and earnings practices, it is
impossible for a single global number to reflect accurately the diverse standards of
living and operational expense in all of the countries in which we operate” and that
“unless each global firm has a similar footprint and headcount in each region, which
they clearly do not, the comparisons of profit per partner are meaningless.”
• Exponential growth:
– Allen & Overy: The firm has opened 18 offices in the past five years, taking its
total to 45 globally. Its commitment to expansion has paid off: its rate of growth in
that period in revenue terms has been double that of other magic circle firms.
Over the past 10 years revenues have almost doubled, from £666m to £1,281m.
– Axiom has achieved 1,216 per cent growth in revenues over the past 10 years.
– LOD has developed a model that sends in teams of lawyers who use technology
and data analytics to support in-house legal departments. This new avenue
accounted for more than half of the 40 per cent growth LOD posted last year.
• Superintelligence: “an intellect that is much smarter than the best human
brains in practically every field, including scientific creativity, general wisdom
and social skills.”
– Oxford philosopher Nick Bostrom