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Markov - Ajuste
Markov - Ajuste
Cuadro resumen
Limite inferior
Limite superior
K C.CO N �=5% �=5%
1 -0.0139085 27 -0.42408 0.34407999
2 0.22591807 26 -0.4431833 0.35622673
3 -0.3285266 25 -0.4650184 0.36978031
4 -0.0476802 24 -0.4902935 0.3850303
5 -0.167827 23 -0.52 0.40235294
6 0.21204994 22 -0.5555766 0.42224323
7 0.03458072 21 -0.599203 0.44535686
8 0.18935204 20 -0.6543695 0.47255129
�_𝑡=𝑀_𝑡+𝑆_𝑡 . �_𝑡
�_𝑡=(�_𝑡−𝑀_𝑡)/𝑆_
𝑡
Coeficiente de corelación
�_𝑘=((�_𝑡.�_(𝑡−𝑘) ) − ̅
(�_𝑡 ) ̅∗(�_(𝑡−𝑘) ) ̅)/
(𝑆_�𝑡∗𝑆_(�𝑡 −𝑘) )
CORRELOGRAMA
Col umn D Col umn G Col umn F
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
p (k)
-0.2
Col umn D Col umn G Col umn F
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
p (k)
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
Desfase (K)
EL MODELO ES ACEPTABLE POR CUMPLIR QUE EL 95% DE LOS DATOS ESTAN DENTRO DE
LOS LIMITES DE CONFIANZA
Et*Et-k K=5 Et-k Et*Et-k K=6 Et-k Et*Et-k K=7
0.002639824
1.308504197 0.44 -0.02534337 0.022427678
0.232427365 0.34 -1.43628331 -0.89388007 0.44 -0.02329713 -0.01449912
1.462408533 0.47 0.37880507 -0.57672402 0.34 -1.40183294 2.134265867 0.44
-0.02972361 0.37 -0.9285574 -0.48869533 0.47 0.371569497 0.195555252 0.34
0.309928125 0.44 -0.04254855 0.015546009 0.37 -0.90576764 0.330941309 0.47
0.990831595 0.38 -0.81851355 -1.32454383 0.44 -0.04010717 -0.06490265 0.37
-0.68402675 0.48 0.612864753 0.285957422 0.38 -0.79825109 -0.37245709 0.44
-0.10150643 0.34 -1.42392792 0.27837924 0.48 0.600253685 -0.11735016 0.38
0.654407267 0.48 0.521642676 -0.99006318 0.34 -1.3897613 2.637727994 0.48
-0.46524325 0.42 -0.32510604 0.095895483 0.48 0.511126646 -0.15076538 0.34
-0.3071341 0.55 1.558572104 -1.03756353 0.42 -0.31617535 0.210482411 0.48
-0.12193805 0.47 0.464946424 0.314633874 0.55 1.524241595 1.031469464 0.42
-1.32282834 0.43 -0.16379308 -0.11840873 0.47 0.455732499 0.329456581 0.55
-0.35117417 0.31 -1.78050231 -2.26076707 0.43 -0.15856716 -0.20133835 0.47
-1.52965936 0.42 -0.25824834 -0.6212966 0.31 -1.73814649 -4.18165124 0.43
-0.79116647 0.40 -0.61031937 0.726154693 0.42 -0.25085313 0.298463698 0.31
0.315794073 0.49 0.664480282 0.295658668 0.40 -0.59483837 -0.26467169 0.42
0.014502338 0.49 0.708359256 0.008287314 0.49 0.650683794 0.007612551 0.40
0.703274751 0.53 1.227632267 0.368892118 0.49 0.693555028 0.208406858 0.49
-1.36979659 0.61 2.306477662 2.762584727 0.53 1.200902236 1.438381229 0.49
0.168585436 0.36 -1.10799931 -0.42415486 0.61 2.254970495 0.863228607 0.53
-0.01269439 0.47 0.444392589 -0.27411576 0.36 -1.08108842 0.666850387 0.61
-0.22073734 0.44 0.032969476 -0.02422534 0.47 0.43565071 -0.32010783 0.36
-0.00250223 0.003809606
-1.35422977 -0.71272466 0.44 -0.05468309 -0.02877945
0.384685455 -0.14055294 0.34 -1.41124124 0.51562675
-0.8678114 -1.40431914 0.47 0.333888272 0.540308283
-0.01898537 -0.00885841 0.37 -0.92308458 -0.43070333
-0.76238573 0.149047123 0.44 -0.07122513 0.01392458
0.608922439 -1.15571772 0.38 -0.81728215 1.551178615
-1.34239289 0.395961309 0.48 0.558926603 -0.16486478
0.521528647 -0.34718901 0.34 -1.39936206 0.93157515
-0.28968487 -0.19603264 0.48 0.471220495 0.318879601
1.514941631 1.095176429 0.42 -0.34289203 -0.24788233
0.467211745 0.593235359 0.55 1.468183598 1.864204896
-0.13514167 -0.32512527 0.47 0.416709483 1.00252409
-1.68400305 2.003617742 0.43 -0.18779654 0.223439311
-0.22563297 -0.10039477 0.31 -1.74219302 -0.77518398
-0.56292876 -0.00658588 0.42 -0.27861122 -0.00325956
0.658371839 0.197834635 0.40 -0.61711239 -0.18543655
0.700409359 0.838915646 0.49 0.608552717 0.728894309
1.197890226 0.458566138 0.49 0.650740466 0.249110925
2.231460105 -1.37643694 0.53 1.14999916 -0.70935677
-1.03972274 0.763968428 0.61 2.187262664 -1.60715887
MEDIA 0.4407
DESVIACIÓN 0.06853274
Numeros aleatorios normales con media y desviacion estandar de los caudales dados.
μo 0.4407
S 0.06853274
� ̅ 0.474537
n 28
Tc 2.61145001
α 0.05
Tt(n-1) 1.70328845
Por lo tanto: μ≠μo
σ2 0.06853274
S2 0.08632144
n 28
F2c 0.79392483
α 0.05
F2t(n-1) 1.64939253
Por lo tanto: S=So
CONCLUSIONES
LAS MEDIAS ESTADISTICAMENTE NO SON IGUALES, Y LAS DESVIACIONES ESTADISTICAMENTE SON IGUALES.
TICAMENTE SON IGUALES.