Años Año Base Factor Estimación

2015 4,479,902 1.00800 4,515,741 N2014 = 4,479,902

2016 4,479,902 1.01606 4,551,867 tc = 0.80%
2017 4,479,902 1.02419 4,588,282 tc = 1.00800
2018 4,479,902 1.03239 4,624,988
2019 4,479,902 1.04065 4,661,988

Años Población Pob. Obj. Pob. Obj.

2015 4,515,741 59.0% 2,664,287

2016 4,551,867 59.0% 2,685,602
2017 4,588,282 59.0% 2,707,086
2018 4,624,988 59.0% 2,728,743
2019 4,661,988 59.0% 2,750,573

CPh Demanda Kilos/ Demanda

Años Segmento
(Kilos) (Kilos.) Caja (Cajas)
2015 2,664,287 3.38 9,005,291 3 3,001,764
2016 2,685,602 3.38 9,077,333 3 3,025,778
2017 2,707,086 3.38 9,149,952 3 3,049,984
2018 2,728,743 3.38 9,223,152 3 3,074,384
2019 2,750,573 3.38 9,296,937 3 3,098,979
 Produccion 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Toneladas 0 0 0 0 0
 Consumo 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Toneladas 0 0 0 0 0
 Oferta
Pais Part. Kentucky Part. Segmento Segmento Kilos/
Años Cajas
(Ton) Kentucky Ton Segmento Ton Kilos Caja

2010 177,824 1.4% 2,490 59% 1,469 1,468,826 3 489,609

2011 201,979 1.4% 2,828 59% 1,668 1,668,347 3 556,116
2012 214,547 1.4% 3,004 59% 1,772 1,772,158 3 590,719
2013 207,535 1.4% 2,905 59% 1,714 1,714,239 3 571,413
2014 235,100 1.4% 3,291 59% 1,942 1,941,926 3 647,309
CA = (P - X) + M
Exportacione Consumo
Años Produccion Saldo Importaciones
s Aparente
2010 0 0 0 489,609 489,609
2011 0 0 0 556,116 556,116
2012 0 0 0 590,719 590,719
2013 0 0 0 571,413 571,413
2014 0 0 0 647,309 647,309

700,000

f(x) = 10592.0733333334x^3 - 97838.126666667x^2 + 298099.466666668x + 276310.766666666

600,000
R² = 0.9679652557

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

0
1 2 3 4 5
 Oferta
AÑOS Coef. x Coef. x2 Coef. x3 Coef.
(Cajas)
2015 10,592.0 1 97,838.0 1 298,099.0 1 276,311.0 487,164
2016 10,592.0 2 97,838.0 4 298,099.0 8 276,311.0 565,893
2017 10,592.0 3 97,838.0 9 298,099.0 27 276,311.0 576,050
2018 10,592.0 4 97,838.0 16 298,099.0 64 276,311.0 581,187
2019 10,592.0 5 97,838.0 25 298,099.0 125 276,311.0 644,856
 BRECHA
AÑOS DEMANDA OFERTA BRECHA
(%)
2014 3,001,764 487,164 2,514,600 84%
2015 3,025,778 565,893 2,459,885 81%
2016 3,049,984 576,050 2,473,934 81%
2017 3,074,384 581,187 2,493,197 81%
2018 3,098,979 644,856 2,454,123 79%
 OFERTA PART.
AÑOS BRECHA
PROY. PROY.
2014 2,514,600 134,000 5%
2015 2,459,885 134,000 5%
2016 2,473,934 134,000 5%
2017 2,493,197 134,000 5%
2018 2,454,123 134,000 5%