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Literature

Field specific,

Theoretical

e.g. marine:

• Dynamics

• Waves

• Probability

• Wind

• Tools

• Ice

• Earthquakes

The Big Picture – Linear World

Mission Definition (e.g. route, cargo, schedule)

The Big Picture – Linear World

Characterization of environment (e.g. weather, location, duration, probability)

Weather at given area Wave spectrum and components at time

Fourier

transformation

Probability

of sea state

The Big Picture – Linear World

Characterization of environment (e.g. weather, location, duration, probability)

Probability Probability of exceeding certain wave height, p2(x),

of sea state, p1(x) from spectra by using spectral moments, mk

p2(x)

p=p1(x)*p2(x)

The Big Picture – Linear World

Response Amplitude Operators (e.g. experiments, simulations, FEA, analytical)

bending moment, M(x,t)

Fourier

transformation

• Load

• Response

• RAO computed

Location on the Course

Week Topic 1 Topic 2 Contribution to big picture

1 Definitions and Definitions and To understand the basic concepts need in treatment of random loads and

mechanics probability processes. General description of random vibration. General description of random

variables and their properties and continuous and discrete probability distributions.

Definition the random process of your engineering project.

2 Stochastic Representation of To understand under which circumstances we can present random signal using

process and random time variance spectrum and probability distributions, i.e. Gaussian signal in time domain.

simplifications signal in Define the conditions for the engineering project when random treatment can be

done frequency domain carried out with the tools provided.

3 Environmental Representation of To identify the kind of environmental loads relevant to your engineering project. The

loads and their environment as select the proper spectra design. To discuss under what circumstances the

formation random process approach is feasible.

4 Response Response To determine the response spectrum for selected application case with

spectrum statistics for approximated response amplitude operator. Fourier-transformation of for random

fatigue and vibrations. Single degree of freedom system in frequency domain. Determine from

extreme loading these the design loads for the engineering project. Random vibrations of beams

and strings. Peak and extreme value statistics.

5 Review of the Questions and To make sure that the different elements learned in order to make a solid basis for

course contents answers before the direct assessment of design loads.

exam

6 Exam reviewing the learned contents

19/10/16

7

Exercise

Grade 1: Based on the 1st week report, describe the random variable formation from physical viewpoint (i.e. what causes

the random nature).

Grade 3: Describe the ensemble you could have for your application case. Under what circumstances you can define the

random load and response for you application case using stochastic methods? Is the response of your system narrow or

broad-banded – how can you make it narrow-banded?

Grade 5: Describe the to process to measure the random excitations and responses. What are the sensors needed?

Create and test a matlab script that calculates the time average and standard deviation for random signal. What effects

do you see in the script that affect the results (learning diary)?

Grade 6: Find article related to your engineering problem that has discussed the random events from physical viewpoint.

Reflect it in learning diary.

Submission

• Report the work done. Show clearly the roles of the group members in the report (leader, algorithms, data, reporting).

Submit to jani.romanoff@aalto.fi

• The grading is based 50% on technical contents, 20% on using technical aids, 15% on reporting and 15% on

reflection previous studies (individual 0.5-1 page learning diary).

19/10/16

8

Contents

• Motivation

• Theory

• Statistics

- Stochastic Processes

- Statistical Properties

- Covariance & Correlation Factor

- Stationary Processes

- Ergodic Processes

• Process in Frequency domain

• Autocovariance

• Variance Spectrum

• Variance Spectrum directly by FFT

• Narrow vs. broadband

• Summary

Motivation

• Environmental loads are not fully

known at every time step and are

called stochastic loads

• It is necessary to use statistical and

probabilistic methods to describe

these loads

• Change of any variable x(t) in time

interval T can be presented in

statistical terms

• Stress, velocity, temperature…

• Measured, simulated…

• It is impossible to predict the value

outside time interval T

19/10/16

10

Motivation

• Variance spectrum can be used to describe properties of natural Stochastic

Process in frequency domain (multiple sinusoidal components at the same

time)

• e.g. wave spectrum (variance spectrum) can be used to assess response due to

random sea

• Important to understand Autocovariance function

Variance σ X2 = E[( X − mX )( X − mX )]

Covariance cXY = E[(X − mX )(Y − mY )]

Autocovariance CX (τ ) = E[(X (τ ) − mX )(X (t −τ ) − mX )]

⎧2S X (ω ), ω > 0

Variance Spectrum S (ω ) = ⎨

+

X

⎩ 0, ω < 0

19/10/16

11

Stochastic Process

• Seemingly identical conditions

(road, wave, wind) exhibit

different behaviour from one

recorded experiment to the

next: x1(t), x2(t), x3(t)…

• The ensemble of all these

signals (i.e. entire set) makes

the random process x(t)

• Time history of random

variable can be presented as

statistical distributions

19/10/16

12

Stochastic Process

• The special situation where the

conditions remain steady, we call the

process stationary and ergodic

• Stationary means that probability

distribution of x1(t), x2(t), x3(t)… at any

time instant t1 is independent of the

choise ot t1

• Ergodic means that probability

distribution of x(t) is equal to all of the

members that contribute to the process

• Thus, under these special conditions

we can determine the x(t) from single

member probability distribution

19/10/16

13

Stochastic Process

• The special situation where the

conditions remain steady, we call the

process stationary and ergodic

• Stationary means that probability

distribution of x1(t), x2(t), x3(t)… at any

time instant t1 is independent of the

choise ot t1

• Ergodic means that probability

distribution of x(t) is equal to all of the

members that contribute to the process

• Thus, under these special conditions

we can determine the x(t) from single

member probability distribution

19/10/16

14

Ensemble and Time Averages, kth Moments

Ergodic t

• For probability estimates we need to assess

the statistical properties (averages, moments)

• We can do this in two ways:

• The ensemble average is obtained by

carrying out the experiment/measurement

N time at time instant t and taking the

average from that, i.e.

Time

• The time avergae is detemined by taking

single signal and averaging that, i.e.

the same result!

19/10/16

15

Ensemble and Time Averages, kth Moments

• The probability Pr(X)=P(X) is determined by:

1. Considering the number of realizations when

x(t) is smaller than the prescribed value X,

2. Dividing this by number of realizations N

3. Letting N increase to large number

4. Carrying out this for any other values of X to

form the entire distribution

the probability distribution of the random

process

19/10/16

16

Definition: Ergodic processes Ensemble mean

= mean of all

realizations at t1

Ergodic process is subclass

of stationary process

Ensemble mean equals time

average of single realization

single measurement is Time Average of

sufficient realization X2

19/10/16

17

Cumulative and probability distribution

functions

Cumulative Density Function

T [ x(t ) ≤ x]

FX (t ) ( x) = lim

T →∞ T

Probability Distribution

Function

dFX (t ) ( x)

f X ( t ) ( x) =

dx

19/10/16

18

Statistical properties of random

variable

Mean value (expected value) mX = E[X]

∞

1 N n

m X =E [X ] = ∫ xf X ( s )dx mX = lim ∑ x j = ∑ x ( k ) pk

−∞ N →∞ N

j =1 k =1

Variance σ2X

∞

σ =Var ( X ) = E [( X − m X ) ] = ∫ ( x − m X ) 2 f X ( x)dx

2

X

2

−∞

Standard deviation σX

σ X = Var[X ]

19/10/16

19

Correlations in Time

For multivariable stochastic process,

• The correlation between two random variables x(t) connection between statistically independent

and y(t) can be expressed by covariance

random variables X1, X2

• When the two variables are completely independent

covariance is 0 Joint CDF x1 x2

• The same concept can be used in time by looking at FX 1 X 2 ( x1 , x2 ) = ∫∫f X1 X 2 ( s1 , s2 )ds1ds 2

the covariance between different times (cross- − ∞− ∞

correlation)

Joint PDF

• For stationary process this should vary only due ∂ 2 FX 1 X 2 ( x1 , x2 )

to variation of τ as the statistical properties f X 1 X 2 ( x1 , x2 ) =

should not change ∂x1∂x2

• We can do the same for the signal itself (auto-

correlation)

the shape of the curve tells about the random signal

• The lower the value t≈0, the more sudden the signal is

• The shape varies depending if scaling has been carried

out

19/10/16

20

Correlations in Time

• The correlation between two random variables x(t)

and y(t) can be expressed by covariance

• When the two variables are completely independent

covariance is 0

• The same concept can be used in time by looking at

the covariance between different times (cross-

correlation)

• For stationary process this should vary only due For stationary process Autocovariance

to variation of τ as the statistical properties function C(τ) and autocorrelation Rxx(τ):

should not change Covariance between values of the same

• We can do the same for the signal itself (auto- variable at two moments of time: t & t + τ

correlation) CX (τ ) = E[( X (t ) − mX )( X (t + τ ) − mX )]

CX (τ ) = CX (−τ )

• For large time separation the Rxx must be zero, thus

RX (τ ) = C X (τ ) + mX2

the shape of the curve tells about the random signal

• The lower the value t≈0, the more sudden the signal is

• The shape varies depending if scaling has been carried

out

19/10/16

21

Stationary processes

• Mean value & Standard deviation are

not functions of time àProcess is

stationary

• Stationary process is idealization of

real process, and thus allways

approximation

• Slowly changing processes, such as

sea waves can be considered

piecewise stationary

19/10/16

22

L4: Stochastic processes

Time Signal in Frequency Domain

•

Contents and Aim

The aim of the lecture is to understand how spectral methods can be

used to assess stochastic loads and response on structures and apply this

knowledge to derivation to short term design loads

– Lecture uses marine structures as example

– The ideas can be used for other stochastic loads as well (wind, etc)

Session 1:

• Motivation and different aspects of designing structures for lifetime

service

– Extreme loads for ultimate strength

– Lifetime loads for fatigue strength

• Representing irregular sea with spectrum

– Fourier series

– Calculation of the spectral parameters and properties

Session 2:

• Concepts of probability theory applied to time history

• Link between spectrum and probability

• Probability of certain load level exceedance

Literature

1. Naess, A. & Moan, T., ”Stochastic Dynamics of Marine

Structures”, Cambridge University Press, 2013, pp. 142-160.

2. Ochi, M., ” Applied Probability & Stochastic Processes in

Engineering & Physical Sciences”, John Wiley & Sons, 1990.

Slide 24

Motivation

Design of Structures

• As engineers our duty is to:

– Guarantee safety of structures/products we

design

– Maximize the performance, e.g. wave energy

absorption

– …

• The process involves:

– Determination of loads (e.g. environmental such

as wind, mechanical, thermal…)

– Defining response for given loads (e.g. stress,

strain, displacement…)

– Checking if the strength is adequate (maximum

stress, buckling etc)

• The lecture focuses on loads and

assumptions made in the analysis:

– Deterministic: load history is fully known (not valid

in nature)

– Stochastic: we can only evaluate statistics

related to the loads and responses, i.e.

probability of exceedance of certain load level

Stochastic Process

• Let’s consider quantity x(t) randomly varying – variable t

is independent (time)

• x(t) is considered random process

– Force on car’s suspension system

– Stress in hull girder of a ship

– Pressure around aeroplane wing

– …

• The problem is that although we can measure the

signal, we cannot define the certain value outside (t>T1)

the measured range t=0…T1

• What is needed is statistical treatment of the signal(s),

e.g. consideration of several measurements under

identical conditions, i.e. x1(t), x2(t), x3(t), x4(t),…, xN(t),

• The ensemble of all these random signals is said to be

random process x(t)

• Stationary means that probability distribution of all

these measurements is independent of the time

instance t1 when the probability is measured

• Ergodic means that probability distribution x(t) is equal

to distributions of all the member functions that

contribute to the process

Stochastic Process

• Let’s consider quantity x(t) randomly varying – variable t

is independent (time)

• x(t) is considered random process

– Force on car’s suspension system

– Stress in hull girder of a ship

– Pressure around aeroplane wing

– …

• The problem is that although we can measure the

signal, we cannot define the certain value outside (t>T1)

the measured range t=0…T1

• What is needed is statistical treatment of the signal(s),

e.g. consideration of several measurements under

identical conditions, i.e. x1(t), x2(t), x3(t), x4(t),…, xN(t),

• The ensemble of all these random signals is said to be

random process x(t)

• Stationary means that probability distribution of all

these measurements is independent of the time

instance t1 when the probability is measured

• Ergodic means that probability distribution x(t) is equal

to distributions of all the member functions that

contribute to the process

Environmental Loads

• Load vs. time data measured for a structure

detail during operation is the “exact” form of a

load spectrum – however it is also deterministic

• Quality of the spectrum highly depends on the

measurement system, e.g. on the frequency of

the data measurement

• Measurement frequency must be high enough

to catch short load peaks

• It is necessary to identify different loading

modes, e.g. ground, flight, landing in aircraft

and to treat these separately

• Loads can be due to

– Wind and wave

– Current

– Ice

– Earthquakes

– …

Process in frequency domain

• Realizations needs to be

decompozied into Fourier series in

order to process it in frequency

domain.

• Periodic Process can be

approximated by Fourier series

• Fourier series decomposition can Autocovariance Function

be presented in frequency domain

• This is only possible if time history

is periodic OR it dies out in time.

19/10/16

29

Energy in Wave Component

• Contents of waves

– Waves can be considered to be composed as sum of large

(infinite) number of regular sinusoidal waves

– We can represent each component by its’ frequency (ω) rather

than time (t)

– For this we need Fourier transformation

energy contents of given wave conditions

• Analogously (different process)

– Wind spectrum

– Ice load spectrum

– …

Calculation of Random Response due to Stochastic

Loads with Spectral Method

• Many of the loads are caused by random processes

– Load spectrum contains the information of energy available to

produce a response

– Response spectrum contains “what happens” due to this

energy

• Therefore, following components of applied

mathematics are needed (complicated)

– Statistics and probability concepts

– Spectrum techniques & and stochastic processes

• The process of application theory of applied

mathematics is easy

1. Describe the waves as sum of sinusoidal functions for single sea

state

2. Derive the wave spectrum (function of angular velocity of the

wave) Sxx(ω) 2

3. Obtain the response amplitude operator RAO, H(ω), “how is S yy (ω ) = H yy (ω ) S xx (ω )

energy consumed”

• For global hull girder bending moment, shear force, torsion moment

• Local pressures

• Stresses

• Motions

• Etc

4. Obtain the response Syy(ω)

•

The Basic Idea

Consider everything in frequency domain

instead of time domain – Fourier RAO or

transformation

– Obtain responses for all waves with one

analysis Response=Wake*RAO (=H(ω)2)

– Theory is heavy, but

Wave

– The application is extremely simple

ω

spectra

• What is needed is

– Wave spectra

– Response Amplitude Operator – RAO

• Moment

• Shear force Response

• Motions

• etc

• After this statistical considerations are

carried out to find out

– Short term response

– Long term response

Parameters/Characteristics of

The kth

∞

moment (analogous to mechanics)

mk = ∫ ω k S (ω )dω Narrow band

0

Broad band

The average angular velocity

∞

m ∫ ωS (ω )dω

0

ω1 = 1 =

m0 ∞

∫ S (ω )dω

0

angular∞ velocity

(

µ k = ∫ ω − ω S (ω )dω)k

0

The bandwith parameter

(0 for narrow band and 1 for broad band)

m22

ε = 1−

m0 m 4

0 ≤ ε ≤1

Estimate for Extreme Value of Gaussian Process

• Let x(t) be stationary Gaussian process with zero mean and spectral area m0

while the objective is to define the most probable extreme value at certain

time

m2

z = ln n 2m0 N 0+ = 1 m0

2π

€ m2

n = T (60) 2 m0

Extreme value

2π

⎛ T m2 ⎞

z= 2 ln⎜ (60) 2 ⎟ m0

⎜ 2π m0 ⎟

⎝ ⎠ This works for one sea state for example!

Variance Spectrum Directly from data

Normally only one realization is available

Measured data

Assumption of ergodigy is required

by using FFT (Fast Fourier Transform)

19/10/16

35

Matlab example - FFT

Matlab example – FFT

Matlab example - FFT

Matlab example - FFT

Matlab example - FFT

We can extend this to more components, add phase angle and do the inverse to

get time signal from spectrum

A+=A-

Probability of Certain Surface Elevation

• If we take a set of surface elevation

measurements with the same statistical

properties, i.e. ensemble, the wave

elevation at time t1 can be considered as

random variable

– It is different for different measurements

– The value is both positive and negative with respect to

mean (typically set to zero)

surface elevation, the estimate of the

cumulative the probability of occurrence

is N [X (t1 ) ≤ x ]

FX (t1 ) ( x) ≈

N

considered

• If we have “really” a random variable in

question, we can assume that N is

infinite giving (N should be reasonable

large J ) FX (t ) ( x) = lim N [X (t1 ) ≤ x]

1 N →∞ N

Probability of Certain Surface Elevation

• Using same logic we can derive the

cumulative density function for any

arbitrary time point, i.e.

N [X (t ) ≤ x ]

N [X (t ) ≤ x ] FX (t ) ( x) = lim

FX (t ) ( x) ≈ N →∞ N

N

as random function. Often term “random

process” is used instead

• Typically we consider the entire time

history and several of them. All these

make the sample space

• For natural phenomena the

“measurements” have been ongoing for

billions of years and will go on so also in

the future - we have only recorded few of

those

• Thus we can assume infinite time series

Probability of Certain Surface Elevation

• It is impossible to repeat exactly what

happens in nature

• In practise we can assume that the time

history that is available is (part of)

ergodic process

– Statistical information is contained in a single

representative measurement

– Strong assumption that allows relatively short

measurements, e.g. 0.5-3 hours

– Practically the statistical treatment becomes

feasible

• Then we can write

T [X (t ) ≤ x ] N [X (t ) ≤ x ]

FX (t ) ( x) = lim FX (t ) ( x) = lim

T →∞ T N →∞ N

cumulative probability distribution over

time

Mathematics on obtained probability

• The probability density function is

obtained by differentation (F needs to be

differentiable)

x

dFX (x )

f X (x ) = , FX (x ) = ∫ f X (s )ds

dx −∞

1 N

∞ m X = lim ∑ xj

m X = E [X ] = ∫ xf X (x )dx N →∞ N j =1

−∞

n 1 N n n N

m X = ∑ x (k ) p k ∑ x j = ∑ x (k ) !p k = ∑ x (k ) k

k =1 N j =1 k =1

=N / N

k =1 N

k

•

Gaussian Random Process

The wave system can be described as sum of very large

number of random, independent, contributions having

sinusoidal form k– Fourier summation

h ( x, y, t ) = ∑ hi ( x, y, t ), k → ∞

i=1

• The average of each of these component hi are zero over

infinitely long time, thus their sum is also zero

• However, the variance, i.e. elevation from h2 is not and

this measures physically the severity of the sea

• Random process is Gaussian if x(t) at any time instance

t is normally distributed

• Physical phenomena such as wave elevation at sea are

normally distributed according to Central Limit

Theorem of statistical mathematics

– If we know the variance and average of each wave

component hi, we can calculate those also for the

entire wave system

– These statistical properties are used in connection

with probability if the probability distribution is

known

• The wave measurements have proven this

– Normal distribution

– Average is zero

•

Gaussian Random Process

The wave system can be described as sum of very large

number of random, independent, contributions having

sinusoidal form k– Fourier summation

h ( x, y, t ) = ∑ hi ( x, y, t ), k → ∞

i=1

• The average of each of these component hi are zero over

infinitely long time, thus their sum is also zero

• However, the variance, i.e. elevation from h2 is not and

this measures physically the severity of the sea

• Random process is Gaussian if x(t) at any time instance

t is normally distributed

• Physical phenomena such as wave elevation at sea are

normally distributed according to Central Limit

Theorem of statistical mathematics

– If we know the variance and average of each wave

component hi, we can calculate those also for the

entire wave system

– These statistical properties are used in connection

with probability if the probability distribution is

known

• The wave measurements have proven this

– Normal distribution

– Average is zero

Total time 3*60*60s=10800s

=>Cycles 1080

Continuous Probability Distributions and Their Relations

on Surface Waves

1

f (x ) = λm x m −1e − λx

Γ(m )

Long Term

Predictions

Wave

Wave Height

Elevation

H, H1/3,...

x(t), x(ω)

Autocovariance

Property of stationary process (not single realization)

Autocovariance function C(τ):

Covariance between values of the same variable at two

moments of time: t & t + τ

CX (τ ) = E[( X (t ) − mX )( X (t + τ ) − mX )]

CX (τ ) = CX (−τ )

C X (0 ) = σ x2

19/10/16

48

Variance Spectrum

Variance spectrum SX(ω) shows division of process’ total

variance in different frequencies.

Alternative names: Energy Spectrum, Power Spectral Density...

∞

2

C X (0 ) = S

∫ X (ω )dω = σ x

−∞

⎧2S X (ω ), ω > 0

S (ω ) = ⎨

+

X

⎩ 0, ω < 0

19/10/16

49

Variance Spectrum

It can be shown that symmetry SX(ω) = SX(-ω) holds.

If SX(ω) is a ”reasonably nice” function autocovariance function

CX(τ) can be approximated as a sum.

→

∞

1

∞

1

S X (ω ) = ∫C X (τ )e −iωτ

dτ S X (ω ) = ∫ C X (τ ) cos(ωτ )dτ

2π −∞

π 0

→

∞ N

C X (τ ) = ∫S X

iωτ

(ω )e dω C X (τ ) ≈ ∑ 2S X (ω j )Δω cos(ω j )τ j

−∞ j =1

19/10/16

50

Variance Spectrum

Negative frequencies

have no practical

meaning

⎧2S X (ω ), ω > 0

S (ω ) = ⎨

+

X

⎩ 0, ω < 0

19/10/16

51

Parameters/Characteristics of Response

Spectrum

The kth

∞

moment (analogous to mechanics)

mk = ∫ ω k S (ω )dω Narrow band

0

Broad band

The average angular velocity

∞

m ∫ ωS (ω )dω

0

ω1 = 1 =

m0 ∞

∫ S (ω )dω

0

angular∞ velocity

(

µ k = ∫ ω − ω S (ω )dω)k

0

The bandwith parameter

(0 for narrow

2

band and 1 for broad band)

m2

ε = 1−

m0 m 4

0 ≤ ε ≤1

Units of Variance Spectra

Care need to be taken when changing units of variance

spectrum

2πS X+ (ω ) = GX+ ( f )

19/10/16

53

Narrow and broad banded process

Narrow band Broadband

19/10/16

54

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