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A Generalized Solow-Swan Model
Copyright © 2014 Donghan Cai et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License,
which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
We set up a generalized Solow-Swan model to study the exogenous impact of population, saving rate, technological change, and
labor participation rate on economic growth. By introducing generalized exogenous variables into the classical Solow-Swan model,
we obtain a nonautomatic differential equation. It is proved that the solution of the differential equation is asymptotically stable if
the generalized exogenous variables converge and does not converge when one of the generalized exogenous variables persistently
oscillates.
The effect of different types of technological change on Proof. (1) It is only to prove that there exits 𝛿 > 0 such that
the economic growth is inquired by using the generalized
Solow-Swan model. It is proved that the economy with higher ̃𝑘 (𝑡) > 𝑘 (𝑡) , 𝑡 ∈ (0, 𝛿) . (5)
technological level has higher per capita capital than that
with lower technological level under the Hicks or Solow Let 𝜙(𝑡) = ̃𝑘(𝑡) − 𝑘(𝑡); then 𝜙(0) ≥ 0 and 𝜙 (0) > 0. Therefore,
neutral technology. For the Harrod neutral technology, we (5) holds.
obtain that the per capita capital of the economy with higher (2) It is directly derived by the differential inequality [13].
final technological growth rate will exceed that with lower
final technological growth whatever how high the initial
per capita capital or technological level the latter has. This
2.3. The Right Maximal Interval of the Solution. For the
implies that a developing economy can catch up a developed
classical Solow Model, we have the following lemma.
economy if it keeps a higher technological growth rate.
When the technological level (under Hicks or Solow neutral Lemma 2 (see [1]). The right maximal intervals of the solu-
technology) or the technological growth rate (under Harrod tions, 𝑘𝑖 (𝑡), 𝑖 = 1, 2, of the initial value problems
neutral technology) is persistent oscillation, the economy
presents long-term fluctuation. 𝑘̇ 𝑖 = 𝑎𝑖 𝑓 (𝑘𝑖 ) − 𝑏𝑖 𝑘𝑖 , 𝑘𝑖 (0) = 𝑘0 > 0, 𝑖 = 1, 2 (6)
Finally, a brief summery is given in Section 6.
are [0, ∞) and
2. The Generalized Solow-Swan Model
lim 𝑘 (𝑡) = 𝑘𝑖∗ , min {𝑘0 , 𝑘𝑖∗ } ≤ 𝑘𝑖 (𝑡) ≤ max {𝑘0 , 𝑘𝑖∗ } ,
𝑡→∞ 𝑖
2.1. Set up the Model. The classical Solow-Swan model is
given by 𝑖 = 1, 2,
(7)
𝑘̇ = 𝑠𝑓 (𝑘) − (𝛿 + 𝑛 + 𝑔) 𝑘, (1)
where 𝑘𝑖∗ , 𝑖 = 1, 2, are the nonzero solutions of the equations
where 𝑠, 𝑛, and 𝑔 are saving rate, population growth rate, and 𝑎𝑖 𝑓(𝑘𝑖 ) − 𝑏𝑖 𝑘𝑖 = 0, 𝑖 = 1, 2.
the technological change rate, respectively, and 𝑓(𝑘) is the
intensive production function satisfying Theorem 3. The solution of the initial value problem
In this paper, we consider the following nonautomatic Proof. Let 𝑘(𝑡) be the solution of the initial value problem (8)
differential equation: with the right maximal interval [0, 𝑏); then, by
where 𝑘𝑖∗ , 𝑖 = 1, 2, are the nonzero solutions of 𝑎𝑖 𝑓(𝑘) − 𝑏𝑖 𝑘 = such that 𝑑𝑇𝑖 − 𝑐𝑇𝑖 > 𝛿1 , 𝑖 = 1, 2, and one of the following
0, 𝑖 = 1, 2. inequalities holds:
Since lim𝑡 → ∞ 𝑎(𝑡) = 𝑎, lim𝑡 → ∞ 𝑏(𝑡) = 𝑏, there exists 𝑇1
min 𝑎 (𝑡) − 2max2 𝑎 (𝑡) > 𝜖,
such that 𝑎1 < 𝑎(𝑡) < 𝑎2 , 𝑏2 < 𝑏(𝑡) < 𝑏1 , 𝑡 ≥ 𝑇1 . Let ̃𝑘𝑖 (𝑡), 𝑐𝑇1 ≤𝑡≤𝑑𝑇1 𝑐𝑇 ≤𝑡≤𝑑𝑇
𝑖 = 1, 2, and ̃𝑘(𝑡) be the solutions of (6) and (8) with the initial (14)
̃𝑘 (0) = ̃𝑘 (0) = ̃𝑘(0) = 𝑘(𝑇 ); then, from lim ̃ min 𝑎 (𝑡) − 1max1 𝑎 (𝑡) > 𝜖.
1 2 1 𝑡 → ∞ 𝑘1 (𝑡) = 𝑐𝑇2 ≤𝑡≤𝑑𝑇2 𝑐𝑇 ≤𝑡≤𝑑𝑇
∗ ̃ ∗ ̃ ̃ ̃
𝑘1 , lim𝑡 → ∞ 𝑘2 (𝑡) = 𝑘2 , and 𝑘2 (𝑡) < 𝑘(𝑡) < 𝑘1 (𝑡), 𝑡 > 0, there
exists 𝑇2 such that Lemma 8. If the generalized variables 𝑎(𝑡) are persistent
oscillation, then, for any given constants 𝑐, 𝑇, 𝑇 > 0, there exist
𝜖 ̃ 𝛿1 > 0 and 𝑡𝑇 > 𝑇 such that one of the following inequalities
𝑘∗ − 𝜖 < 𝑘1∗ − < 𝑘1 (𝑡) ≤ ̃𝑘 (𝑡) ≤ ̃𝑘2 (𝑡)
2 holds:
(10)
𝜖 𝜖 𝜖
< 𝑘2∗ + < 𝑘∗ + 𝜖, 𝑡 > 𝑇2 ; 𝑎 (𝑡) − 𝑐 > , 𝑐 − 𝑎 (𝑡) > (15)
2 2 2
on the interval [𝑡𝑇 − 𝛿1 /2, 𝑡𝑇 + 𝛿1 /2].
that is, |̃𝑘(𝑡) − 𝑘∗ | < 𝜖, 𝑡 > 𝑇2 .
𝑘(𝑡), 0≤𝑡≤𝑇1 ,
Let 𝑢(𝑡) = { ̃𝑘(𝑡−𝑇 ), 𝑇 ≤𝑡<∞, and then 𝑢(𝑡) is a solution of Proof. Assume that the first inequality of (14) holds; then one
1 1
(8) with the initial 𝑢(0) = 𝑘0 and 𝑢(𝑡) = 𝑘(𝑡), 𝑡 > 0, by the of the following inequalities holds:
uniqueness of the solution of (8). Therefore, |𝑘(𝑡) − 𝑘∗ | < 𝜖, 𝜖 𝜖
min 𝑎 (𝑡) − 𝑐 > , − 2max2 𝑎 (𝑡) + 𝑐 > . (16)
𝑡 > 𝑇1 + 𝑇2 , and the theorem holds. 𝑐𝑇1 ≤𝑡≤𝑑𝑇1 2 𝑐𝑇 ≤𝑡≤𝑑𝑇 2
From the above theorem, we have following lemma. Without loss of the generality, we assume that the first
inequality above holds and we have
Lemma 5. If lim𝑡 → ∞ 𝑎(𝑡) = 𝑎, lim𝑡 → ∞ 𝑏(𝑡) = 𝑏, 𝑢𝑖 (𝑡), 𝑖 = 𝜖
1, 2, are the solution of (8) with the initial values 𝑢10 > 𝑢20 > 0, 𝑎 (𝑡) − 𝑐 > , 𝑡 ∈ [𝑐𝑇1 , 𝑑𝑇1 ] . (17)
2
then lim𝑡 → ∞ |𝑢1 (𝑡) − 𝑢2 (𝑡)| = 0.
Taking 𝑡𝑇 = (𝑑𝑇1 + 𝑐𝑇1 )/2, then (15) holds for [𝑡𝑇 − 𝛿1 /2, 𝑡𝑇 +
Theorem 6. If lim𝑡 → ∞ 𝑎(𝑡) = 𝑎, lim𝑡 → ∞ 𝑏(𝑡) = 𝑏, then the 𝛿1 /2] ⊂ [𝑐𝑇1 , 𝑑𝑇1 ].
solution of (8) is Lyapunov asymptotically stable. Similarly, we can prove the case that the second inequality
holds. This completes the proof of the lemma.
Proof. For any given 𝜖 > 0, choose 𝑢10 = 3𝑘0 /2 and 𝑢20 =
𝑘0 /2; then, from Lemma 5, there exists 𝑇 > 0 such that the Theorem 9. If one of the generalized variables is persistent
solutions, 𝑢𝑖 (𝑡), 𝑖 = 1, 2, with the initial values 𝑢𝑖0 , 𝑖 = 1, 2, of oscillation and the other converges, then the solution of the
(8) satisfy |𝑢1 (𝑡) − 𝑢2 (𝑡)| < 𝜖, 𝑡 ≥ 𝑇. differential equation (8) does not converge.
Denote that
Proof. Assume that 𝑎(𝑡) is persistent oscillation and
𝐺 (𝑡, 𝑘) = 𝑎 (𝑡) 𝑓 (𝑘) − 𝑏 (𝑡) 𝑘; (11) lim𝑡 → ∞ 𝑏(𝑡) = 𝑏.
If the solution 𝑘(𝑡) of the differential equation (8) con-
then 𝜕𝐺/𝜕𝑘 is continuous on the compact set verges, then there exists a 𝑘∗ > 0 such that lim𝑡 → ∞ 𝑘(𝑡) = 𝑘∗ .
Therefore, for given 𝜖1 > 0, there exists 𝑇1 > 0 such that
M = {(𝑡, 𝑘) | 0 ≤ 𝑡 ≤ 𝑇, 𝑢1 (𝑡) ≤ 𝑘 ≤ 𝑢2 (𝑡)} . (12) |𝑓(𝑘(𝑡)) − 𝑓(𝑘∗ )| < 𝜖1 , |𝑐 − (𝑘(𝑡)/𝑓(𝑘(𝑡)))𝑏(𝑡)| < 𝜖1 , 𝑡 > 𝑇1 ,
where 𝑐 = (𝑘∗ /𝑓(𝑘∗ ))𝑏.
Let 𝑀 = max(𝑡,𝑘)∈M (𝜕𝐺(𝑘, 𝑡)/𝜕𝑘), 𝛿1 = min{𝜖𝑒−𝑀𝑇 , 𝑘0 /2}, Let 𝑐1 = min{𝑓(𝑘∗ ) − 𝜖1 , 𝑓(𝑘∗ ) + 𝜖1 }; then, from (8) and
Lemma 8, there exists 𝜖 > 0, such that
and ̃𝑘(𝑡) be the solution of (8) with the initial value ̃𝑘0 ∈ (𝑘0 −
𝛿1 , 𝑘0 + 𝛿1 ); then, by the Gronwall inequality [13], we have 𝛿 𝛿
𝑘 (𝑡𝑇 + 1 ) − 𝑘 (𝑡𝑇 − 1 )
2 2
̃
𝑘 (𝑡) − 𝑘 (𝑡) < ̃𝑘0 − 𝑘0 𝑒𝑀𝑇 < 𝜖, 𝑡 ∈ [0, 𝑇] . (13) 𝑡𝑇 +𝛿1 /2
= ∫ 𝑓 (𝑘 (𝑠)) [𝑎 (𝑠) − 𝑐] d𝑠
Since 𝑢2 (𝑡) < 𝑘(𝑡) < 𝑢1 (𝑡), 𝑢2 (𝑡) < ̃𝑘(𝑡) < 𝑢1 (𝑡), 𝑡 > 0, we 𝑡𝑇 −𝛿1 /2
have |̃𝑘(𝑡) − 𝑘(𝑡)| < |𝑢1 (𝑡) − 𝑢2 (𝑡)| < 𝜖 for 𝑡 ≥ 𝑇. Therefore, 𝑡𝑇 +𝛿1 /2
𝑘 (𝑠)
the solution of (8) is Lyapunov asymptotically stable [14] by +∫ 𝑓 (𝑘 (𝑠)) [𝑐 − 𝑏 (𝑠)] d𝑠 (18)
𝑡𝑇 −𝛿1 /2 𝑓 (𝑘 (𝑠))
Lemma 5. This completes the proof of the theorem.
𝑐1 𝜖𝛿1
≥ − (𝑓 (𝑘∗ ) + 𝜖1 ) 𝜖1 𝛿1
2.5. Oscillation 2
𝑐1 𝜖𝛿1
Definition 7. The generalized exogenous variables 𝑎(𝑡) (or ≥
𝑏(𝑡)) are called persistent oscillation if, for any given 𝑇 > 0, 4
there exist 𝑐𝑇𝑖 , 𝑑𝑇𝑖 , 𝑖 = 1, 2, 𝑐𝑇1 < 𝑑𝑇1 < 𝑐𝑇2 < 𝑑𝑇2 , and 𝜖 > 0, 𝛿1 > for 𝑇 > 𝑇1 , provided 𝜖1 < min{𝑐1 𝜖/4(𝑓(𝑘∗ ) + 1), 1}.
4 Abstract and Applied Analysis
Since lim𝑡𝑇 → ∞ |𝑘(𝑡𝑇 + 𝛿1 /2) − 𝑘(𝑡𝑇 − 𝛿1 /2)| = 0, the 3. Variable Population Growth
inequality above does not hold for big enough 𝑇1 . This is a
contradiction and the theorem holds. Suppose that 𝑁(𝑡) and 𝐿(𝑡) are the numbers of population and
labor of an economy at time 𝑡 and the labor force participation
Lemma 10. If generalized variable 𝑎(𝑡) (or (𝑏(𝑡)) which does rate is 𝜆(𝑡), 0 < 𝜆(𝑡) < 1; then, 𝐿(𝑡) = 𝜆(𝑡)𝑁(𝑡). We further
not equal constant is a periodical function with the period 𝜔 > assume that the population growth rate, 𝑛(𝑡), is bounded; that
0, then it is persistent oscillation. is, −𝑛1 ≤ 𝑛(𝑡) ≤ 𝑛2 , where 𝑛𝑖 ≥ 0, 𝑖 = 1, 2.
Let 𝑘 = 𝐾/𝑁; then
Proof. Since 𝜔 > 0, there exists 𝑡1 , 𝑡2 ∈ (0, 𝜔), 𝑡1 < 𝑡2 such
that 𝑎(𝑡1 ) ≠ 𝑎(𝑡2 ). Let 𝜖 = |𝑎(𝑡1 ) − 𝑎2 (𝑡2 )|/2; then there exists 𝐾̇ 𝑁 𝐾̇ 𝐾̇
𝛿 > 0 such that 0 < 𝑡1 −𝛿/2 < 𝑡1 +𝛿/2 < 𝑡2 −𝛿/2 < 𝑡2 +𝛿/2 < 𝜔 𝑘̇ = ( − ) 𝑘 = ( − 𝑛 (𝑡)) 𝑘 = − 𝑛 (𝑡) 𝑘. (25)
𝐾 𝑁 𝐾 𝑁
and one of the following inequalities holds:
min 𝑎 (𝑡) − max 𝑎 (𝑡) > 𝜖, From 𝐾̇ = 𝑠𝐹(𝐾, 𝐿) − 𝛿𝐾, we obtain the Solow-Swan
𝑐1 ≤𝑡≤𝑑1 𝑐2 ≤𝑡≤𝑑2 model with the variable population growth rate and labor
(19) participation rate below:
min 𝑎 (𝑡) − max 𝑎 (𝑡) > 𝜖,
𝑐2 ≤𝑡≤𝑑2 𝑐1 ≤𝑡≤𝑑1
𝑘̇ = 𝑠𝐹 (𝑘, 𝜆 (𝑡)) − [𝛿 + 𝑛 (𝑡)] 𝑘. (26)
where 𝑐𝑖 = 𝑡𝑖 − 𝛿/2, 𝑑𝑖 = 𝑡𝑖 + 𝛿/2, 𝑖 = 1, 2.
For any given 𝑇 > 0, there exists positive integer 𝑀𝑇 such
that 𝑀𝑇 𝜔 > 𝑇. Let 𝑐𝑇𝑖 = 𝑀𝑇 𝜔 + 𝑡𝑖 − 𝛿/2, 𝑑𝑇𝑖 = 𝑀𝑇 𝜔 + 𝑡𝑖 + 𝛿/2, 3.1. Changeable Population Growth Rate. Assume that the
𝑖 = 1, 2; then, from (19), the conditions in Definition 7 hold labor participation is positive constant, that is, 𝜆(𝑡) = 𝜆 0 , and
for 𝑎(𝑡) is the period function with period 𝜔. This completes let 𝑓(𝑘) = 𝐹(𝑘, 𝜆 0 ); then, from (26), we obtain the Solow-
the proof of the lemma. Swan model with variable population growth rate
From Theorems 1 and 9, we have the following. Theorem 23. If 𝜆(𝑡) is persistent oscillation, then the solution
of (31) does not converge.
Corollary 16. If 𝑘𝑖 (𝑡), 𝑖 = 1, 2, are the solution of following
equations: Corollary 24. If the labor participation of an economy is
persistent oscillation, then its economic growth is not stable.
𝑘̇ = 𝑠𝑓 (𝑘) − [𝛿 + 𝑛𝑖 (𝑡)] 𝑘, 𝑖 = 1, 2, (30)
Remark 25. For the variable population growth rate, (31)
with same initial value 𝑘1 (0) = 𝑘2 (0) = 𝑘0 > 0 and 𝑛1 (𝑡) >
becomes
𝑛2 (𝑡) > 𝑛1 , then 𝑘2 (𝑡) > 𝑘1 (𝑡), 𝑡 > 0.
𝑘̇ = 𝜆1−𝛼 (𝑡) 𝑓 (𝑘) − [𝛿 + 𝑛 (𝑡)] 𝑘. (34)
Corollary 16 implies that an economy with higher popula-
tion growth rate has lower per capita capital and consumption From Theorems 1, 3, 4, 6, and 9, we derive that the eco-
than that with lower population growth rate. nomic growth speeds up when the labor force participation
rate increases and the population growth rate declines. There-
Theorem 17. If 𝑛1 + 𝛿 > 0 and 𝑛(𝑡) is persistent oscillation, fore, there exists “demographic dividend” in the late stage of
then the solution of (27) does not converge. demographic transition, in which the population growth rate
declines and labor force participation rate increases.
Corollary 18. If the population growth is persistent oscillation
of an economy, then its economic growth is not stable.
4. Variable Saving Rate
3.2. Changeable Labor Force Participation. There are two Assume that the saving rate varies with time, the population
major reasons that result in the change of the labor force growth rate is a constant 𝑛0 , and 0 < 𝑠1 ≤ 𝑠(𝑡) ≤ 𝑠2 < 1; then
participation: one is the changes in the age structure and the the classical Solow-Swan model changes into
other is the population aging [16]. Here, we suppose that the
aggregate population is stable; that is, 𝑁(𝑡) is a constant and 𝑘̇ = 𝑠 (𝑡) 𝑓 (𝑘) − (𝛿 + 𝑛0 ) 𝑘. (35)
𝐹(𝐾, 𝐿) is the Cobb-Douglas production function 𝐴𝐾𝛼 𝐿1−𝛼 ;
From Theorems 1, 3, 4, 6, and 9, we have the following.
then 𝑛(𝑡) = 0 and (26) turns into
𝑘̇ = 𝜆1−𝛼 (𝑡) 𝑓 (𝑘) − 𝛿𝑘, (31) Theorem 26. The extension interval of the solution of
the differential equation (35) is [0, +∞); furthermore, if
where 𝑓(𝑘) = 𝑠𝐴𝑘𝛼 . lim𝑡 → +∞ 𝑠(𝑡) = 𝑠0 > 0, then the solution of the differential
From Theorems 1, 3, 4, 6, and 9, we have the following. equation (35) is Lyapunov asymptotically stable and converges
to the nonzero equilibrium of the differential equation
Theorem 19. The extension interval of the solution of
the differential equation (31) is [0, +∞); furthermore, if 𝑘̇ = 𝑠0 𝑓 (𝑘) − (𝛿 + 𝑛0 ) 𝑘. (36)
lim𝑡 → +∞ 𝜆(𝑡) = 𝜆 0 > 0, then the solution of the differential
equation (31) is Lyapunov asymptotically stable and converges Theorem 27. If 𝑘𝑖 (𝑡), 𝑖 = 1, 2, are the solutions of the
to the nonzero equilibrium of the differential equation differential equations
𝑘̇ = 𝜆1−𝛼 (𝑡) 𝑓 (𝑘) − 𝛿𝑘, 𝑖 = 1, 2 (33) Corollary 28. The economy with higher saving rate has higher
𝑖
per capita capital than that with lower saving rate under the
with the same initial 𝑘0 and 𝜆 2 (𝑡) > 𝜆 1 (𝑡), 𝑡 ≥ 0, then 𝑘2 (𝑡) > same other conditions; furthermore, the per capita capital of an
𝑘1 (𝑡), 𝑡 > 0. economy tends stably to a higher steady state when the saving
rate tends to a higher stable level.
Corollary 21. The economy with higher labor force partic-
ipation has higher per capita capital than that with lower Theorem 29. If 𝑠(𝑡) is persistent oscillation, then the solution
labor force participation under the same other conditions; of (35) does not converge.
furthermore, the per capita capital of an economy with higher
labor force participation tends stably to a higher steady state Corollary 30. If the saving rate of an economy is persistent
when the labor force participation tends to a stable level. oscillation, then its economic growth is not stable.
where 𝑇(𝑡) is an index of the state of the technology, and 𝑇̇ ≥ Theorem 37. The extension interval of the solution of
0. the differential equation (43) is [0, +∞); furthermore, if
Under this production function, the Solow-Swan model lim𝑡 → +∞ 𝑔(𝑡) = 𝑔 > 0, then the solution of the differential
turns into equation (43) is Lyapunov asymptotic stable and converges to
equilibrium of the differential equation
𝑘̇ = 𝑠𝑇 (𝑡) 𝑓 (𝑘) − (𝛿 + 𝑛) 𝑘, (39)
which is a special case of the generalized Solow-Swan model 𝑘̇ = 𝑠𝑓 (𝑘) − (𝛿 + 𝑔 + 𝑛) 𝑘. (44)
(3). Therefore, from Theorems 1, 3, 4, 6, and 9, we have the Remark 38. The special case of this theorem has been proved
following theorems and corollaries. by Zhou et al. [17]; there the function 𝑔(𝑡) is given by 𝑎 + 𝑔 −
𝑢(𝑡), and 𝑢(𝑡) is the solution of the logistic equation 𝑢̇ = 𝑢(𝑎 −
Theorem 31. If 𝑇(𝑡) is bounded and 𝑇(0) > 0, then the
𝑏𝑢).
extension interval of the solution of the differential equation
(39) is [0, +∞); furthermore, if lim𝑡 → +∞ 𝑇(𝑡) = 𝑇 > 0, Lemma 39. If 𝑔𝑖 (0) ≥ 0, lim𝑡 → ∞ 𝑔𝑖 (𝑡) = 𝑔𝑖 , 𝑖 = 1, 2, and
then the solution of the differential equation (39) is Lyapunov 𝑔2 > 𝑔1 , then, for any given positive constant 𝐵, there exists a
asymptotically stable and converges to the nonzero equilibrium 𝑡
time 𝑇 such that ∫0 [𝑔2 (𝜏) − 𝑔1 (𝜏)]d𝜏 > 𝐵, 𝑡 > 𝑇.
of the differential equation
𝑡
𝑘̇ = 𝑠𝑇𝑓 (𝑘) − (𝛿 + 𝑛) 𝑘, (40) Proof. Let ℎ(𝑡) = ∫0 [𝑔2 (𝑠) − 𝑔1 (𝑠)]d𝑠; then, from
lim𝑡 → ∞ ℎ(𝑡) = ∞, the lemma holds.
where 𝑇 = lim𝑡 → ∞ 𝑇(𝑡).
Theorem 40. Let 𝑘𝑖 (𝑡), 𝑖 = 1, 2, be the solutions of the
Theorem 32. If 𝑇𝑖 (𝑡), 𝑖 = 1, 2, are bounded, 𝑇2 (𝑡) > 𝑇1 (𝑡), 𝑡 ≥ differential equations
0, 𝑇1 (0) > 0, and 𝑘𝑖 (𝑡), 𝑖 = 1, 2, are the solutions of the
differential equations 𝑘̇ = 𝑠𝑓 (𝑘) − [𝛿 + 𝑔𝑖 (𝑡) + 𝑛] 𝑘, 𝑖 = 1, 2, (45)
𝑘̇ = 𝑠𝑇𝑖 (𝑡) 𝑓 (𝑘) − 𝛿𝑘, 𝑖 = 1, 2, (41) with the initial values 𝑘𝑖0 , 𝑖 = 1, 2.
with the same initial 𝑘0 , then 𝑘2 (𝑡) > 𝑘1 (𝑡), 𝑡 > 0. (1) If 𝑘10 = 𝑘20 and 𝑔2 (𝑡) > 𝑔1 (𝑡), 𝑡 ≥ 0, then 𝑘2 (𝑡) < 𝑘1 (𝑡),
𝑡 > 0.
Corollary 33. The economy with higher technological level has
(2) If 𝑔2 = lim𝑡 → ∞ 𝑔2 (𝑡) > 𝑔1 = lim𝑡 → ∞ 𝑔1 (𝑡), then there
higher per capita capital than that with lower technological
level under the same other conditions; furthermore, the per exists a time 𝑇, such that ̃𝑘2 (𝑡) > ̃𝑘1 (𝑡), where ̃𝑘𝑖 (𝑡), 𝑖 =
capita capital of an economy tends stably to a higher steady state 1, 2, are the per capita capital 𝐾𝑖 (𝑡)/𝐿 𝑖 (𝑡), 𝑖 = 1, 2.
when its technological level tends to a higher stable level.
Proof. (1) It is directly deduced by Theorem 1.
𝑡
Theorem 34. If 𝑇(𝑡) is persistent oscillation, then the solution (2) Since ̃𝑘 (𝑡) = 𝐴 (𝑡)𝑘 (𝑡) = 𝐴 𝑒∫0 𝑔𝑖 (𝜏)d𝜏 𝑘 (𝑡), 𝑖 = 1, 2,
𝑖 𝑖 𝑖 𝑖0 𝑖
of (39) does not converge.
̃𝑘 (𝑡) 𝐴 𝑘 (𝑡) ∫𝑡 [𝑔 (𝜏)−𝑔 (𝜏)]d𝜏 𝐴 𝑘 (𝑡) ℎ(𝑡)
Corollary 35. If the technological level of an economy is
2
= 20 2 𝑒 0 2 1
= 20 2 𝑒 , (46)
̃𝑘 (𝑡) 𝐴 10 𝑘1 (𝑡) 𝐴 10 𝑘1 (𝑡)
persistent oscillation, then its economic growth is not stable. 1
that with higher technological growth rate under the same other technology) grows faster than that with lower technological
conditions. level. The per capita capital of an economy tends to a stable
(2) The per capita capital of an economy with higher final level if the technological level tends to a stable level and the
technological growth rate will excess that with lower final economy presents long-term fluctuation if the technologic
technological growth rate. level is persistent oscillation.
For the Harrod neutral technology, we show that the per
Theorem 43. If 𝑔(𝑡) is persistent oscillation, then the solution capita of an economy with higher technological growth rate
of (43) does not converge. will excess that with lower technological growth whatever
how high initial per capita capital the latter had and how
Corollary 44. If the technological growth rate of an economy high technological growth rate in the early stage the latter
with the labor-augmenting technological progress is persistent had. This result implies that a developing economy can catch
oscillation, then its economic growth is not stable. up a developed economy provided it maintains a higher
technological growth rate than the latter in long term.
6. Summary If the technological growth rate is persistent oscillation,
the economic growth is not stable and the economy presents
From the analysis in Section 2, we see that the stability long-term fluctuation.
of the nonautomatic differential equation depends on the
generalized exogenous variables. If they converge, then the Appendix
solution of the equation is Lyapunov asymptotically stable
and does not converge if one of the generalized exogenous Some Cited Definitions, Theorems, and
variables is persistent oscillation. Therefore, the economy
described by the model stably grows when the generalized
the Details of the Proof
exogenous variables tend to a stable level and presents Theorem A.1 (differential inequality [13]). Let 𝑈(𝑡, 𝑢),
fluctuation when one of the generalized exogenous variables 𝑢(𝑡0 ) = 𝑢0 on an open (𝑡, 𝑢)-set 𝐸 and 𝑢 = 𝑢0 (𝑡) the
is persistent oscillation. maximal solution of 𝑢̇ = 𝑈(𝑡, 𝑢), 𝑢(𝑡0 ) = 𝑢0 . Let V(𝑡) be a
In Section 3, we analyze the effect of the demographic continuous function on [𝑡0 , 𝑡0 + 𝑎] satisfying the conditions
factors on the economic growth. One demographic factor is V(𝑡0 ) ≤ 𝑢0 , (𝑡, V(𝑡)) ∈ 𝐸, and V(𝑡) has a right derivative 𝐷𝑅 V(𝑡)
the change of population growth rate in the period of demo- on 𝑡0 ≤ 𝑡 < 𝑡0 + 𝑎. Then, on a common interval of existence of
graphic transition. There does not exist substantial effect on 𝑢0 (𝑡) and V(𝑡), V(𝑡) ≤ 𝑢0 (𝑡).
the economic growth in long term for the population growth
rate tends to zero after the demographic transition. However, Theorem A.2 (Extension Theorem [13]). Let 𝑓(𝑡, 𝑦) be con-
the economic growth speeds up in the later period of the tinuous on an open (𝑡, 𝑦)-set 𝐸 and let 𝑦(𝑡) be a solution of
demographic transition in which the labor force participation 𝑦̇ = 𝑓(𝑡, 𝑦) on some interval. Then 𝑦(𝑡) can be extended (as a
rate rises and the population growth rate decreases. This solution) over a maximal interval of existence (𝜔− , 𝜔+ ). Also, if
implies that the “demographic dividend” appears in this (𝜔− , 𝜔+ ) is a maximal interval of existence, then 𝑦(𝑡) tends to
period and theoretically confirms the evidence provided by the boundary 𝜕𝐸 of 𝐸 as 𝑡 → 𝜔− and 𝑡 → 𝜔+ .
Bloom et al. [11] through empirical analysis.
The other demographic factor affecting economic growth Theorem A.3 (Gronwall’s inequality [13]). Let 𝑢(𝑡), V(𝑡) be
that we inquired is population aging. The distinct characteris- nonnegative, continuous functions on [𝑎, 𝑏]; 𝐶 ≥ 0 a constant;
tic of population aging is that the labor force participation rate and
declines when the total population is stable. From the analysis 𝑡
in Section 3.2, we see that population aging slows down the V (𝑡) ≤ 𝐶 + ∫ V (𝑠) 𝑢 (𝑠) d𝑠, 𝑎 ≤ 𝑡 ≤ 𝑏. (A.1)
economic growth. 𝑎
The third demographic factor is unstable population
Then
growth rate and unstable labor force participation rate. If one
𝑡
of them is persistent oscillation, then the economy presents
long-term fluctuation. V (𝑡) ≤ 𝐶 exp (∫ 𝑢 (𝑠) d𝑠) , 𝑎 ≤ 𝑡 ≤ 𝑏; (A.2)
𝑎
The effect of the saving rate change on economic growth is
discussed in Section 4. The per capita capital of the economy in particular, if 𝐶 = 0, then V(𝑡) ≡ 0.
with higher final saving rate will excess that with lower final
saving rate. Under the same initial per capita capital, the per Definition A.4 (Lyapunov Stability [14]). Let 𝑥∗ (𝑡) be a given
capita capital of the economy with higher saving rate is bigger real or complex solution vector of the n-dimensional system
than that with lower saving rate in whole period of economic 𝑥̇ = 𝑋(𝑥, 𝑡). Then we have the following.
growth. If the saving rate is persistent oscillation, then the (i) 𝑥∗ (𝑡) is Lyapunov stable for 𝑡 ≥ 𝑡0 if and only if to
economy presents long-term fluctuation. each value of 𝜖 > 0, however small, there corresponds
Three types of variable neutral technology with time are a value of 𝛿 > 0 (where 𝛿 may depend only on 𝜖 and
put into the model to analyze their effects on the economic 𝑡0 ) such that
growth. It is obtained that the economy with higher tech-
𝑥 (𝑡0 ) − 𝑥 (𝑡0 ) < 𝛿 ⇒ 𝑥 (𝑡) − 𝑥 (𝑡) < 𝜖
∗ ∗
nological level (Hicks neutral technology or Solow neutral (A.3)
8 Abstract and Applied Analysis
Conflict of Interests
The authors declare there is no conflict of interests regarding
the publication of this paper.
Acknowledgment
This work is supported by National Natural Science Founda-
tion of China (70871094, 71271158).
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