Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil’s apprentice president

Unless he stops provoking and learns to govern, his tenure could be short

Onehe promised
of the main reasons why Jair Bolsonaro won last year’s presidential election in Brazil is that
to get the economy moving again after four years of slump. By naming Paulo
Guedes, a free-marketeer, as his economic super-minister, he won the backing of big business and
finance. Many assumed that the arrival of Mr Bolsonaro’s government in itself would breathe life
into the economy. But three months in, it remains as moribund as ever. Investors are starting to
realise that Mr Guedes faces an uphill task to get congress to approve a pension reform that is
crucial for Brazil’s fiscal health. And Mr Bolsonaro himself is not helping.

A fiscal deficit of 7% of gdp weighs heavily on the economy, meaning that interest rates for private
borrowers are higher than they would otherwise be. Pensions account for a third of total public
spending, and are one reason why the state spends little on Brazil’s skeletal infrastructure. The
government’s reform bill, sent to congress last month, imposes a minimum retirement age, raises
contributions and closes loopholes. It is supposed to yield savings of 1.2trn reais ($310bn) over ten
years. Last year’s pension deficit was 241bn reais. On its own, pension reform is not enough to return
Brazil to robust economic growth. That requires tax reforms and other measures to boost
competitiveness. But it has become a totem.

Mr Bolsonaro is fortunate that after two years of political and public debate, pension reform is less
unpopular than it was. But it is not exactly a vote-winner. Mr Bolsonaro didn’t campaign on it. “The
whole discussion on pension reform is something Brazilians would rather not have,” says Monica de
Bolle, a Brazilian economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a think-tank.

Approval thus requires leadership from the top. That is absent. In his campaign Mr Bolsonaro
denounced the corrupt “old politics” of pork-barrel bargaining in congress. Yet he has no alternative
strategy to command the legislature. He has needlessly antagonised some allies, including Rodrigo
Maia, the powerful speaker of the lower house. His father-in-law, Wellington Moreira Franco, a
former minister, was briefly arrested on March 21st along with Michel Temer, the president in 2016-
18, on suspicion of bribery, which they deny. That prompted comments from one of Mr Bolsonaro’s
sons, who are his closest aides, which Mr Maia took as a personal attack. His riposte was that he
would not round up votes on pension reform for a government he called “a desert of ideas”. Officials
this week tried to mollify Mr Maia. But pension reform seems certain to suffer both delays and
dilution.

The bigger problem is that Mr Bolsonaro has yet to show that he understands his new job. He has
dissipated political capital on his prejudices, for example by calling for the armed forces to
commemorate the anniversary on March 31st of a military coup in 1964. His is a government of
“monumental confusion”, says Claudio Couto of Fundação Getulio Vargas, a university. Apart from
the economic team, it is a warring assortment of retired generals, mid-ranking politicians,
evangelical Protestants and far-right ideologues named by Olavo de Carvalho, a previously obscure
philosopher. “Nobody knows where he’s going, what’s the course he’s setting,” says Fernando
Henrique Cardoso, a former president, of Mr Bolsonaro. “He goes forward then back, all the time.”

If the government has a linchpin, it is General Hamilton Mourão, the vice-president, who has
attempted to impose some political discipline. Yet he is often at odds with the Bolsonaro family. Mr
de Carvalho has called General Mourão an “idiot”, and said that if things continue as they are for the
next six months “it’s all over.” Though they apportion the blame differently, others are starting to
think the same. To cap it all, evidence is emerging that the Bolsonaro family was acquainted with
members of a criminal group of former police in Rio de Janeiro accused of murdering Marielle
Franco, an activist (and no relation of Wellington). They deny any link.

Two of Brazil’s four previous elected presidents have been impeached because, as Mr Cardoso (who
wasn’t) says, “they stopped being able to govern.” However much they abhor Mr Bolsonaro,
democrats should not want him to fail to complete his term. It is still early days. But already his
presidency faces a crucial test. “We have two alternatives,” his spokesman said this week. “Approve
pension reform or sink into a bottomless pit.” If only his boss were as clear.