4 INDEPENDENT PROBLEMS WITH AN

ARGUMENT

1. One or more premises is false.

2. The claim is false: the truth of the premises does not
provide the support claimed for the conclusion.
3. The premises are irrelevant to the truth of the
conclusion.
4. The support provided for the conclusion by the
premises is vulnerable to new evidence.

LPS 29, Chapter 2, Lecture 1 1

 The Logician’s Promise: My approved kinds (or
“forms”) of arguments will not lead you from believing
something true into believing something false.

TRUE Premises

Logician’s Approved
Arguments

TRUE Conclusions

But…Garbage In, Garbage Out!

LPS 29, Chapter 2, Lecture 1 2

 2 KINDS OF CLAIMS, 2 KINDS OF ARGUMENTS

A deductive argument is an argument in which the

premise(s) are claimed to lend absolute support to the
conclusion.

An inductive argument is an argument in which the

premise(s) are not claimed to lend absolute support to the
conclusion. Instead, the premises are claimed to make the
conclusion probable or likely.

A Good Deductive argument: the claim is a dead cert.

A Good Inductive argument: the claim is a little risky.

LPS 29, Chapter 2, Lecture 1 3

 INDUCTIVE OR DEDUCTIVE?

Either the keys are in the ignition, or they are somewhere

along the walk from the car to the house.
I do not remember leaving them in the ignition. Therefore,
they are somewhere along the walk from the car to the
house.

An inductive argument can be a good argument even if we

can tell a (perhaps far-fetched) story in which the premises
are true and the conclusion false. In a deductively valid
argument there is no such story we can tell.

LPS 29, Chapter 2, Lecture 1 4

From Verne Booth, Physical Science

Galileo’s observation of all the phases of Venus was of the

greatest importance for the advocates of the Copernican
system, for in the Ptolemaic system, Venus could never get
far enough away from the sun to show a full phase. The
fact that Venus displays a full set of phases constitutes the
one conclusive proof that it revolves around the sun [i.e., of
the Copernican system].

LPS 29, Chapter 2, Lecture 1 5

 A Greek Argument

Over time, water erodes mountains. Mountains exist

today. So, it is unlikely that the earth has existed for
eternity.

A COUNTEREXAMPLE is a possible situation (or

possible world) in which all of the premises of the
argument are true, and the conclusion false.

LPS 29, Chapter 2, Lecture 1 6

 An argument is deductively valid if it has no
counterexamples.

An argument is deductively invalid otherwise.

An argument has high inductive probability if the truth of

the conclusion is very likely given the truth of the premises

An argument has low inductive probability otherwise.

If an argument is deductively valid, then it has ……….

If an argument has low inductive probability, then it

is…….
LPS 29, Chapter 2, Lecture 1 7
 INDUCTIVE? DEDUCTIVE? DEDUCTIVELY VALID?
HIGH OR LOW INDUCTIVE PROBABILITY?

The coin hasn’t come up heads in a very long time. I bet it

will come up heads this time.

LPS 29, Chapter 2, Lecture 1 8

 INDUCTIVE? DEDUCTIVE? DEDUCTIVELY VALID?
HIGH OR LOW INDUCTIVE PROBABILITY?

Given infinite time, erosion would eliminate all mountains

and make the earth’s surface flat. Mountains exist today
and the earth’s surface is not flat. So, the earth has not
existed for eternity.

An argument is SOUND if its premises are true and it is

deductively valid.

LPS 29, Chapter 2, Lecture 1 9