FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

SECTOR IN-DEPTH Banks – Mexico

8 July 2019
Macro profile – Moderate +
Mexico’s (A3 negative) “Moderate (+)” macro profile reflects the large size and broad
diversification of Mexico's economy and its track record of slow but steady growth.
TABLE OF CONTENTS Nevertheless, the economic growth forecast has been consistently adjusted downward since
Economic strength 2
the beginning of 2019. These lower growth expectations are based on the strong contraction
Institutional strength 3
in private investments that began in August 2018, which is unlikely to rebound in 2019. We
Susceptibility to event risk 3
believe the fall in private investments reflects reduced investor confidence in the direction of
Credit conditions 3
Funding conditions 4
government policy and overall business conditions.
Industry structure 5
Moreover, the Mexican government's need to underpin the state-owned oil company
Appendix 6
Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex, Baa3 negative) may weigh on its own finances and, hence,
on the ability to support the banking system, if needed. Market sentiment toward Pemex
Contacts remains pessimistic, driven by concerns over whether it will be able to meet its large
Felipe Carvallo +52.55.1253.5738
financing needs in the coming years.
VP-Sr Credit Officer
felipe.carvallo@moodys.com Exhibit 1
Arriving at Mexico's macro profile
Jose Angel Montano +52.55.1253.5722
VP-Senior Analyst
joseangel.montano@moodys.com
Vicente Gomez +52.55.1555.5304
Associate Analyst
vicente.gomez@moodys.com
Anna Chabanenko +52.55.1555.5323
Associate Analyst
anna.chabanenko@moodys.com
» Contacts continued on last page

CLIENT SERVICES
Americas 1-212-553-1653
Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077
Japan 81-3-5408-4100
EMEA 44-20-7772-5454
Note: The macro profile is a rating input used to determine each bank’s Baseline Credit Assessment. It is designed to capture the
system-wide factors that are predictive of the propensity of banks to fail. For more information, please consult Moody’s Bank
Rating Methodology. The Mexico macro profile will not be used to assign ratings for Mexican banks until certain local regulatory
requirements have been fulfilled and the new methodology is implemented in Mexico.
Source: Moody’s Investors Service
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Economic strength: High

Our “High” assessment of Mexico's economic strength reflects the large scale of the economy, an elevated degree of diversification
and improved resilience to economic shocks following a series of structural reforms implemented in 2014. As a middle-income country,
Mexico's wealth levels (measured as GDP per capita) lag those of 'A'-rated peers, despite having the 15th largest economy in the world.
This reflects long-standing structural bottlenecks to growth that hinder productivity despite full access to the US (Aaa stable) market
under the terms of the existing free trade agreement. Currently, weak private investment, policy uncertainty and a restrictive fiscal
stance are also weighing on growth.

We anticipate a challenging outlook for Mexico’s economy and forecast growth will slow to 1.2% from 2% in 2018, with risks tilted
to the downside, owing to a persistent weakness in private investment and a tight fiscal stance. High frequency indicators including
industrial production, retail sales, consumer and business confidence continue to give mixed signals. Although consumer confidence
has decreased in recent months, it remains near historic highs, yet this has not translated into a robust acceleration in consumption.
Business confidence has been much weaker than consumer confidence, denoting a wait-and-see attitude given mixed messages,
unexpected policy announcements and policy reversals that are weighing on investor sentiment and growth prospects.

Slow economic activity is likely to carry into 2020, with growth subdued at around 1.5%, and to persist thereafter if private investment
does not rebound by the end of 2019.

Exhibit 2
Economic strength

Source: Moody’s Investors Service

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on
www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

2 8 July 2019 Banks – Mexico: Macro profile – Moderate +

 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Institutional strength: Moderate -

Our score of “Moderate (-)” institutional strength is based on a track record of economic policy continuity, even though Worldwide
Governance Indicators for Mexico tend to be more in line with those of lower-rated 'Baa' countries. Mexico’s institutional framework
has been strengthened by the Fiscal Responsibility Law (FRL) that the government introduced in 2006.

The law sets a balanced budget target for the consolidated public sector − excluding Pemex, Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE,
Baa1 negative) and federal government investment – that over the years has led to headline general government deficits of 1%-2% of
GDP. The FRL limits the fiscal deficit to 2.0% of GDP for 2019. Since its inception, the authorities have complied with the fiscal rule
with only minor deviations over the years.

However, despite this proven track record, reform reversal coupled with mixed messages from the current government have decreased
policy predictability and increasingly weigh on Mexico's institutional quality.

Exhibit 3
Institutional strength

Source: Moody’s Investors Service

Susceptibility to event risk: Low +

We consider susceptibility to event risk to be “Low (+).”

Exposure to geopolitical risk stemming from potential trade policy changes in the US drives this factor score, as Mexican exports
to the US are equal to about 20% of Mexican GDP. While our view is that the US, Canada (Aaa stable) and Mexico will enact the
renegotiated United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) that is to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)
following approval by all three countries' legislatures by the end of 2020, political brinkmanship by US congressional leaders could
delay ratification of the agreement.

In terms of other potential event risks, we have set Mexico's government liquidity risk at “Very Low (+),” above the scorecard-indicated
outcome of “Very Low (-),” to reflect moderate reliance on nonresident funding and minor volatility on government yields.

At ”Very Low (+),” external vulnerability risk is two notches above its “Very Low (-)” scorecard-indicated outcome. While external
funding risks are still highly contained, the deviation reflects the fact that the economy-wide external amortizations (including the
public sector's) will tick up in 2021-23. Still, FDI inflows cover the current account deficit and international reserves provide an ample
buffer for foreign-currency short-term debt and maturing long-term debt.

3 8 July 2019 Banks – Mexico: Macro profile – Moderate +

 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Credit Conditions: No adjustment

We make no adjustments to Credit Conditions to reflect the moderation in loan growth across all asset classes, evidenced by loans to
GDP at low levels of 35% and by the modest pace of change in private sector credit at about 5.5% over the past three years.

Banks have reduced their projected loan growth for 2019 to 7%-8% from 10% at the end of 2018. Our expectations, based on the
levels of loan growth versus nominal GDP of the last two years, are that the banking system should expand at about 6% in the next
two years.

A slower economic growth will limit growth of business volumes for banks and stands to increase delinquencies, especially among
higher risk consumer loans, and loans to small and mid-size companies, which are more exposed to economic cycles. Notwithstanding
the slowing economic growth, Mexican banks will maintain strong financial fundamentals. High interest rates and stable, low-cost
deposit funding will continue to drive banks’ ample margins and profitability, boosting capital levels that can serve as cushions against
unexpected problem loans.

Mexican banks continue to face a slow and cumbersome process of enforcing collateral and lengthy bankruptcy resolutions, which
explains the banking system's high write-offs. To mitigate these risks, banks tend to focus on lending to individuals and companies
in the formal economy and at the top of the economic pyramid. Our score for Mexico's Banking Country Risk of Moderate + already
incorporates the difficulties banks face in recoveries and executing guarantees.

The AMLO administration intends to introduce measures to boost the financial system by increasing the number of potential borrowers
that banks can serve, which would be credit positive for Mexican banks if implemented successfully. The limited nature of announced
measures have confirmed our view that the new administration has no plans to change the regulatory framework of the financial and
economic system in the first half of his six-year term (sexenio), by 2021.1

However, as the economy slows, there is the possibility that government-owned development banks such as Nacional Financiera,
S.N.C. (Nafin, A3/A3 negative, ba1), Banco Nacional de Obras y Servicios Públicos, S.N.C. (Banobras, A3/A3negative, ba2) and Banco
Nacional de Comercio Exterior, S.N.C. (A3/A3 negative, ba3) will be asked to support growth via credit, which is in line with their public
policy roles.

Exhibit 4
Credit conditions

Source: Moody’s Investors Service

4 8 July 2019 Banks – Mexico: Macro profile – Moderate +

 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Funding conditions: No adjustment

Funding conditions in Mexico are sound, based on the banks' strong domestic core deposit funding. Local currency customer deposits
equaled 57% of total assets as of March 2019. Furthermore, Mexican banks benefit from low reliance on market funding, especially
cross-border issuances, which limits risks related to exchange rate volatility.

Deposit growth has kept pace with loans, averaging 11.0% annually over the past three years vis-à-vis 10.6% of the loan growth rate.
As a result, the system's loan to deposit ratio has remained stable and stood at around 102% as of March 2019. In addition, wholesale
funding has been less than 10% of total assets, and consists mostly of domestically issued senior debt and interbank borrowings.

While repurchase agreements account for a significant share of Mexican banks' balance sheets, they generally represent an investment
option to banks' clients seeking higher daily returns than those that ordinary deposits offer rather than a source of funding for banks
´ lending activities. Repos are generally invested in Mexican government securities (A3 negative), limiting banks' exposure to price
fluctuations in the corresponding securities holdings.

Exhibit 5
Funding conditions
Demand deposits Term deposits Time deposits (Money market) Interbank Loans Derivatives Senior notes Other liabilities Subordinated debt
100%
11.0% 10.8% 10.2% 9.6% 10.2% 10.0%
90%

80%
22.4% 19.7% 19.2%
70% 24.6% 24.7% 24.9%

60%

50%
15.0% 16.3% 17.0%
13.9% 13.3% 13.2%
40%

30%

20% 36.3% 36.6% 37.5% 39.9% 39.2% 38.9%

10%

0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1Q2019

Source: Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Valores

Industry structure: No adjustment

Mexico's banking system is highly concentrated, with the seven largest banks controlling 82.3% of the system's gross loans as of March
2019. Five of these banks are foreign-owned. The banking system became even more concentrated following the merger in July 2018 of
Banco Mercantil del Norte, S.A. (A3 negative, baa2) and Banco Interacciones, S.A, which made Banco Mercantil del Norte the country's
second largest bank. The high level of concentration provides Mexico's largest banks with strong pricing power, as reflected in their
ample net interest margins.

Government owned financial institutions accounted for 40% of the financial system's total gross loans as of March 2019, but they do
not drive significant competitive distortions because these entities generally complement commercial banks' product offerings and
act in countercyclical manner. These financial institutions broadly focus on lines of business that are not necessarily targeted by banks,
including commercial lending to small and medium-sized entities, long-term financing for infrastructure projects and mortgage lending
to lower-income individuals. Consequently, although the AMLO administration could accelerate loan growth at public banks to boost
economic growth, we do not expect this to be a significant competitive threat for commercial banks.

However, competition could rise from the Instituto Nacional de la Vivienda para los Trabajadores (Infonavit, unrated), the government-
owned mortgage provider and Mexico's largest lender. Infonavit has a financing limit on home purchases that could make inroads in
markets, particularly middle-class customers, who have traditionally been the domain of large private lenders.2 That said, mortgages
constitute a relatively limited 16% of commercial banks' loan book as of March 2019, which will limit the impact of increased
competition from Infonavit on their margins.

5 8 July 2019 Banks – Mexico: Macro profile – Moderate +

 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Exhibit 6
Industry structure
Market share by total gross loans, March 2019

Banco Azteca Other (41)

2% 11%
BBVA
Banregio 22%
2%
Banco del Bajío
3%
Inbursa
5%

Scotiabank
7%
Banorte
15%
HSBC
7%

Citibanamex Santander
13% 13%

Source: Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Valores

6 8 July 2019 Banks – Mexico: Macro profile – Moderate +

 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Appendix: Moody’s macro profiles

Exhibit 7

7 8 July 2019 Banks – Mexico: Macro profile – Moderate +

 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Valid as of 28 June 2019.

Source: Moody’s Investors Service

8 8 July 2019 Banks – Mexico: Macro profile – Moderate +

 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Moody's related research

Outlook:

» Banking System Outlook – Mexico: Strong fundamentals, low probability of disruptive new policies drive stable outlook, 4
September 2018

Credit Opinion:

» Government of Mexico – A3 Negative: Update following outlook change to negative, 5 June 2019

Sector In-Depth:

» Moody's Macro Profiles: A Compendium, 18 March 2015

» Lower growth in an increasingly unpredictable policy environment, 17 June 2019

» Development banks will likely grow faster, but fundamentals should remain healthy, 7 August 2018

Sector Comment:

» Slowdown in Mexican job creation is credit negative for banks and pension funds, 23 June 2019

» Brazil-based Nubank's entry into Mexico is credit negative for Mexican banks, 9 May 2019

» National personal identification cards would be credit positive for Mexico's banks, 26 March 2019

» Mexico’s plan to grant microloans to small businesses is credit positive for banks, 18 January 2019

» Mexico's plan to boost its financial system is credit positive, 15 January 2019

» Mexico's legislative proposal to ban banks' most common fees is credit negative, 11 November 2018

» Mexico's new leverage ratio minimum is credit positive for banks, 14 October 2018

Cross Sector:

» Lower growth in an increasingly volatile environment, 17 June 2019

» Mexico: A rocky start for the new administration signals challenges ahead, 4 December 2018

» Mexico: Financial volatility, oil sector risks will likely increase following Lopez Obrador election, 2 July 2018

Methodology:

» Moody's Bank Rating Methodology, 1 August 2018

To access any of these reports, click on the entry above. Note that these references are current as of the date of publication of this
report and that more recent reports may be available. All research may not be available to all clients.

Endnotes
1 See our Sector Comment entitled “Mexico's plan to boost its financial system is credit positive,” 15 January 2019.
2 Mexico's State Mortgage Lender Increases Lending Limit, a Credit Negative for Private Banks, 10 April 2017.

9 8 July 2019 Banks – Mexico: Macro profile – Moderate +

 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

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REPORT NUMBER 1182037

10 8 July 2019 Banks – Mexico: Macro profile – Moderate +

 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Analyst Contacts CLIENT SERVICES

Felipe Carvallo +52.55.1253.5738 Jose Angel Montano +52.55.1253.5722 Americas 1-212-553-1653

VP-Sr Credit Officer VP-Senior Analyst
Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077
felipe.carvallo@moodys.com joseangel.montano@moodys.com
M. Celina Vansetti +1.212.553.4845 Vicente Gomez +52.55.1555.5304 Japan 81-3-5408-4100
MD-Banking Associate Analyst EMEA 44-20-7772-5454
celina.vansetti-hutchins@moodys.com vicente.gomez@moodys.com
Anna Chabanenko +52.55.1555.5323
Associate Analyst
anna.chabanenko@moodys.com

11 8 July 2019 Banks – Mexico: Macro profile – Moderate +