ESTIMACION DE PARAMETROS DE LAS DISTRIBUCIONES TEORICAS

PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS - ESTACION TAHUACO -YUNGUYO

DISTRIBUCION LOG-PEARSON TIPO III DISTRIBUCION GUMBEL

METODO DE MOMENTOS METODO DE MOMENTOS

Prom(Y) = 3.559 n= 20.00

S(Y) = 0.252 Prom(x) = 36.16
CS(Y) = -0.4495 Negativo. S(X) = 8.85
a= 0.0567 a = 0.144892
b= 19.7976 b = 32.171263
g= 4.6815

g= Y- a b Suponiendo Cs positivo.
g= Y+ab Suponiendo Cs negativo.
 METODO LOG-PEARSON TIPO III

PREDICCION DE LAS PRECIPITACIONES MAXIMAS EN 24 HORAS

ESTACION LARAQUERI -PUNO

Xi (Observ) TR
Evento Log Xi Prob. P W Z K KT Log XT
(mm) (años)
1 53.5 1.72835 0.026 39.00 0.03 2.70687 1.94954 1.9495 2.0108 1.7296
2 49.5 1.69461 0.051 19.50 0.05 2.43738 1.63290 1.6329 1.6689 1.6935
3 45.3 1.65610 0.077 13.00 0.08 2.26493 1.42634 1.4263 1.4483 1.6702
4 45.3 1.65610 0.103 9.75 0.10 2.13414 1.26724 1.2672 1.2797 1.6524
5 44.6 1.64933 0.128 7.80 0.13 2.02688 1.13499 1.1350 1.1405 1.6377
6 44.1 1.64444 0.154 6.50 0.15 1.93484 1.02006 1.0201 1.0201 1.6250
7 42.2 1.62531 0.179 5.57 0.18 1.85346 0.91722 0.9172 0.9129 1.6137
8 41.8 1.62118 0.205 4.88 0.21 1.77996 0.82326 0.8233 0.8154 1.6034
9 40.3 1.60531 0.231 4.33 0.23 1.71251 0.73606 0.7361 0.7253 1.5938
10 40.3 1.60531 0.256 3.90 0.26 1.64983 0.65414 0.6541 0.6409 1.5849
11 39.9 1.60097 0.282 3.55 0.28 1.59102 0.57639 0.5764 0.5611 1.5765
12 39.6 1.59770 0.308 3.25 0.31 1.53535 0.50199 0.5020 0.4850 1.5685
13 38.7 1.58771 0.333 3.00 0.33 1.48230 0.43029 0.4303 0.4119 1.5607
14 37.7 1.57634 0.359 2.79 0.36 1.43144 0.36076 0.3608 0.3412 1.5533
15 37.7 1.57634 0.385 2.60 0.38 1.38240 0.29295 0.2929 0.2724 1.5460
16 37 1.56820 0.410 2.44 0.41 1.33490 0.22649 0.2265 0.2053 1.5389
17 35.6 1.55145 0.436 2.29 0.44 1.28868 0.16105 0.1610 0.1393 1.5319
18 33.8 1.52892 0.462 2.17 0.46 1.24354 0.09633 0.0963 0.0743 1.5251
19 31.8 1.50243 0.487 2.05 0.49 1.19927 0.03205 0.0321 0.0099 1.5183
20 30.4 1.48287 0.513 1.95 0.51 1.15571 -0.03204 -0.0320 -0.0541 1.5115
21 30.3 1.48144 0.538 1.86 0.54 1.11269 -0.09620 -0.0962 -0.1180 1.5048
22 30.3 1.48144 0.564 1.77 0.56 1.07006 -0.16070 -0.1607 -0.1821 1.4980
23 30 1.47712 0.590 1.70 0.59 1.02768 -0.22579 -0.2258 -0.2466 1.4912
24 29.8 1.47422 0.615 1.63 0.62 0.98540 -0.29176 -0.2918 -0.3117 1.4843
25 29.3 1.46687 0.641 1.56 0.64 0.94307 -0.35892 -0.3589 -0.3778 1.4773
26 28.4 1.45332 0.667 1.50 0.67 0.90052 -0.42762 -0.4276 -0.4453 1.4702
27 27.6 1.44091 0.692 1.44 0.69 0.85758 -0.49824 -0.4982 -0.5144 1.4629
28 27.2 1.43457 0.718 1.39 0.72 0.81407 -0.57127 -0.5713 -0.5856 1.4554
29 26.4 1.42160 0.744 1.34 0.74 0.76976 -0.64727 -0.6473 -0.6595 1.4476
30 25.9 1.41330 0.769 1.30 0.77 0.72438 -0.72695 -0.7270 -0.7367 1.4394
31 25.2 1.40140 0.795 1.26 0.79 0.67761 -0.81123 -0.8112 -0.8181 1.4308
32 24.8 1.39445 0.821 1.22 0.82 0.62901 -0.90132 -0.9013 -0.9047 1.4217
33 24.5 1.38917 0.846 1.18 0.85 0.57802 -0.99891 -0.9989 -0.9981 1.4118
34 24.4 1.38739 0.872 1.15 0.87 0.52383 -1.10648 -1.1065 -1.1007 1.4010
35 24.3 1.38561 0.897 1.11 0.90 0.46522 -1.22790 -1.2279 -1.2158 1.3888
36 24.2 1.38382 0.923 1.08 0.92 0.40011 -1.36985 -1.3699 -1.3495 1.3747
37 23.7 1.37475 0.949 1.05 0.95 0.32448 -1.54578 -1.5458 -1.5141 1.3573
38 21.6 1.33445 0.974 1.03 0.97 0.22793 -1.79168 -1.7917 -1.7420 1.3332
38 38 38
SUMA 1287.00 57.65
PROMEDIO 33.87 1.52
DESV 8.32 0.11
COEF. ASIM 0.46 0.13

METODO GUMBEL

PREDICCION DE LAS PRECIPITACIONES MAXIMAS EN 24 HORAS

ESTACION LARAQUERI -PUNO

Xi
Prob.Empírica Var.reducida KT
Evento (Observ) TR XT (predicido)
(Weibull) Y
(mm) (años) (mm)

1 53.50 0.0256 39.00 3.65060 2.3963 53.81

2 49.50 0.0513 19.50 2.94421 1.8455 49.22
3 45.30 0.0769 13.00 2.52519 1.5188 46.51
4 45.30 0.1026 9.75 2.22365 1.2837 44.55
5 44.60 0.1282 7.80 1.98631 1.0987 43.01
6 44.10 0.1538 6.50 1.78944 0.9452 41.73
7 42.20 0.1795 5.57 1.62037 0.8134 40.64
8 41.80 0.2051 4.88 1.47153 0.6973 39.67
9 40.30 0.2308 4.33 1.33802 0.5932 38.80
10 40.30 0.2564 3.90 1.21650 0.4985 38.02
11 39.90 0.2821 3.55 1.10456 0.4112 37.29
12 39.60 0.3077 3.25 1.00042 0.3300 36.61
13 38.70 0.3333 3.00 0.90272 0.2538 35.98
14 37.70 0.3590 2.79 0.81039 0.1818 35.38
15 37.70 0.3846 2.60 0.72256 0.1133 34.81
16 37.00 0.4103 2.44 0.63853 0.0478 34.27
17 35.60 0.4359 2.29 0.55771 -0.0152 33.74
18 33.80 0.4615 2.17 0.47959 -0.0761 33.24
19 31.80 0.4872 2.05 0.40372 -0.1353 32.74
20 30.40 0.5128 1.95 0.32972 -0.1930 32.26
21 30.30 0.5385 1.86 0.25723 -0.2495 31.79
22 30.30 0.5641 1.77 0.18591 -0.3051 31.33
23 30.00 0.5897 1.70 0.11544 -0.3600 30.87
24 29.80 0.6154 1.63 0.04551 -0.4146 30.42
25 29.30 0.6410 1.56 -0.02421 -0.4689 29.97
26 28.40 0.6667 1.50 -0.09405 -0.5234 29.51
27 27.60 0.6923 1.44 -0.16437 -0.5782 29.06
28 27.20 0.7179 1.39 -0.23560 -0.6337 28.60
29 26.40 0.7436 1.34 -0.30820 -0.6903 28.12
30 25.90 0.7692 1.30 -0.38277 -0.7485 27.64
31 25.20 0.7949 1.26 -0.46003 -0.8087 27.14
32 24.80 0.8205 1.22 -0.54096 -0.8718 26.61
33 24.50 0.8462 1.18 -0.62690 -0.9388 26.06
34 24.40 0.8718 1.15 -0.71985 -1.0113 25.45
35 24.30 0.8974 1.11 -0.82298 -1.0917 24.78
36 24.20 0.9231 1.08 -0.94194 -1.1845 24.01
37 23.70 0.9487 1.05 -1.08870 -1.2989 23.06
38 21.60 0.9744 1.03 -1.29844 -1.4624 21.70
ESTACION LARAQUERI -PUNO
XT (predicido)
(mm)
53.66
49.38
46.80
44.92
43.42
42.17
41.08
40.12
39.25
38.45
37.71
37.02
36.37
35.75
35.16
34.59
34.04
33.50
32.98
32.47
31.97
31.48
30.99
30.50
30.01
29.53
29.03
28.53
28.03
27.51
26.97
26.40
25.81
25.18
24.48
23.70
22.77
21.54
 PRUEBA DE AJUSTE - ERROR CUADRATICO MINIMO

PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS - ESTACION LARAQUERI -PUNO

Datos Observ. LOG-PEARSON III GUMBEL

TR
m Xo Xe (Xe - Xo)2 Xe (mm)
(años)
(mm) (Xe - Xo)2
(mm)
1 39.00 53.50 53.66 0.02 53.81 0.09
2 19.50 49.50 49.38 0.02 49.22 0.08
3 13.00 45.30 46.80 2.24 46.51 1.45
4 9.75 45.30 44.92 0.15 44.55 0.56
5 7.80 44.60 43.42 1.39 43.01 2.53
6 6.50 44.10 42.17 3.73 41.73 5.60
7 5.57 42.20 41.08 1.25 40.64 2.45
8 4.88 41.80 40.12 2.82 39.67 4.54
9 4.33 40.30 39.25 1.10 38.80 2.24
10 3.90 40.30 38.45 3.41 38.02 5.22
11 3.55 39.90 37.71 4.78 37.29 6.81
12 3.25 39.60 37.02 6.65 36.61 8.92
13 3.00 38.70 36.37 5.43 35.98 7.40
14 2.79 37.70 35.75 3.81 35.38 5.38
15 2.60 37.70 35.16 6.47 34.81 8.34
16 2.44 37.00 34.59 5.82 34.27 7.47
17 2.29 35.60 34.04 2.44 33.74 3.45
18 2.17 33.80 33.50 0.09 33.24 0.32
19 2.05 31.80 32.98 1.40 32.74 0.89
20 1.95 30.40 32.47 4.30 32.26 3.47
21 1.86 30.30 31.97 2.79 31.79 2.23
22 1.77 30.30 31.48 1.39 31.33 1.06
23 1.70 30.00 30.99 0.98 30.87 0.76
24 1.63 29.80 30.50 0.49 30.42 0.38
25 1.56 29.30 30.01 0.51 29.97 0.44
26 1.50 28.40 29.53 1.27 29.51 1.24
27 1.44 27.60 29.03 2.05 29.06 2.12
28 1.39 27.20 28.53 1.78 28.60 1.95
29 1.34 26.40 28.03 2.64 28.12 2.97
30 1.30 25.90 27.51 2.58 27.64 3.03
31 1.26 25.20 26.97 3.12 27.14 3.76
32 1.22 24.80 26.40 2.57 26.61 3.29
33 1.18 24.50 25.81 1.72 26.06 2.42
34 1.15 24.40 25.18 0.60 25.45 1.11
35 1.11 24.30 24.48 0.03 24.78 0.23
36 1.08 24.20 23.70 0.25 24.01 0.03
37 1.05 23.70 22.77 0.87 23.06 0.41
38 1.03 21.60 21.54 0.00 21.70 0.01
SUMA 82.96 104.67
C 9.11 10.23

AJUSTE GRAFICO
COMPARACION DE PRECIPITACIONES MAXIMAS ESTIMADAS CON DISTRIBUCIONES TEORICAS Y DATOS OBSERVADOS
60.00

50.00
 AJUSTE GRAFICO
COMPARACION DE PRECIPITACIONES MAXIMAS ESTIMADAS CON DISTRIBUCIONES TEORICAS Y DATOS OBSERVADOS
60.00

50.00

40.00
recipitación(mm)

30.00
P

20.00 Datos observados Log-pearson III Gumbel

10.00
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00
Tiempo de retorno(años)
 METODO LOG-PEARSON TIPO III

ANALISIS DE FRECUENCIA DE LAS PRECIPITACIONES MAXIMAS EN 24 HORAS

ESTACION TAHUACO - YUNGUYO

TR Pmáx 24H
Evento Prob (mm)
Log P

1 0.026 39.00 53.50 1.72835

2 0.051 19.50 49.50 1.69461
3 0.077 13.00 45.30 1.65610
4 0.103 9.75 45.30 1.65610
5 0.128 7.80 44.60 1.64933
6 0.154 6.50 44.10 1.64444
7 0.179 5.57 42.20 1.62531
8 0.205 4.88 41.80 1.62118
9 0.231 4.33 40.30 1.60531
10 0.256 3.90 40.30 1.60531
11 0.282 3.55 39.90 1.60097
12 0.308 3.25 39.60 1.59770
13 0.333 3.00 38.70 1.58771
14 0.359 2.79 37.70 1.57634
15 0.385 2.60 37.70 1.57634
16 0.410 2.44 37.00 1.56820
17 0.436 2.29 35.60 1.55145
18 0.462 2.17 33.80 1.52892
19 0.487 2.05 31.80 1.50243
20 0.513 1.95 30.40 1.48287
21 0.538 1.86 30.30 1.48144
22 0.564 1.77 30.30 1.48144
23 0.590 1.70 30.00 1.47712
24 0.615 1.63 29.80 1.47422
25 0.641 1.56 29.30 1.46687
26 0.667 1.50 28.40 1.45332
27 0.692 1.44 27.60 1.44091
28 0.718 1.39 27.20 1.43457
29 0.744 1.34 26.40 1.42160
30 0.769 1.30 25.90 1.41330
31 0.795 1.26 25.20 1.40140
32 0.821 1.22 24.80 1.39445
33 0.846 1.18 24.50 1.38917
34 0.872 1.15 24.40 1.38739
35 0.897 1.11 24.30 1.38561
36 0.923 1.08 24.20 1.38382
37 0.949 1.05 23.70 1.37475
38 0.974 1.03 21.60 1.33445

N= 38 Desv. Est.= 0.11

Media= 1.52 Cs= 0.13

PRECIPITACIONES MAXIMAS PARA DIFERENTES PERIODOS DE RETORNO

PERIODO DE FACTOR DE P. max

RETORNO PROBABILIDAD % FRECUENCIA Log P 24 H.
(T) K (mm)
2 0.50 -0.02212 1.51489 32.72614
5 0.20 0.83427 1.60535 40.30446
10 0.10 1.29504 1.65402 45.08399
25 0.04 1.79594 1.70693 50.92508
50 0.02 2.12481 1.74167 55.16567
75 0.01 2.30299 1.76049 57.60895
100 0.01 2.42419 1.77329 59.33245
 METODO GUMBEL

ANALISIS DE FRECUENCIA DE LAS PRECIPITACIONES MAXIMAS EN

24 HORAS

ESTACION TAHUACO - YUNGUYO

TR Pmáx 24H
Evento Prob (mm)
1 0.048 21.00 56.50

2 0.095 10.50 50.40

3 0.143 7.00 48.40
4 0.190 5.25 42.20
5 0.238 4.20 40.00
6 0.286 3.50 39.70
7 0.333 3.00 38.20
8 0.381 2.63 37.80
9 0.429 2.33 37.20
10 0.476 2.10 35.60
11 0.524 1.91 35.20
12 0.571 1.75 34.70
13 0.619 1.62 32.50
14 0.667 1.50 32.40
15 0.714 1.40 31.50
16 0.762 1.31 31.00
17 0.810 1.24 29.40
18 0.857 1.17 28.20
19 0.905 1.11 23.20
20 0.952 1.05 19.00

n= 20 MEDIA 36.16
Yn= 0.52 DESV. ESTAN. 8.85
sn= 1.06

PRECIPITACIONES MAXIMAS PARA DIFERENTES PERIODOS DE RETORNO

PERIODO DE PROBABILIDAD FACTOR DE P. MAX

RETORNO (P) Variable reducida FRECUENCIA 24 H.
Y
(T) % K (mm)
2 50.00 0.367 -0.145 34.90
5 20.00 1.500 0.924 44.30
10 10.00 2.250 1.632 50.60
25 4.00 3.199 2.527 58.50
50 2.00 3.902 3.191 64.40
100 1.00 4.600 3.849 70.20
 GENERACION DE CAUDALES MAXIMOS DE DISEÑO
METODO: FORMULA DE MAC MATH
Microcuenca Chimbo(Punto 1)

Período de Area de la Pendiente del Coeficiente de PPmáxima en

Caudal máximo
Retorno Cuenca curso principal escorrentía 24 hrs
C
(Años) (Ha) (m/Km) (mm) (m3/sg)
2 664.00 21.000 0.70 34.90 3.80
5 664.00 21.000 0.70 44.30 4.83
10 664.00 21.000 0.70 50.60 5.51
25 664.00 21.000 0.70 58.50 6.37
50 664.00 21.000 0.70 64.40 7.02
100 664.00 21.000 0.70 70.20 7.65

GENERACION DE CAUDALES MAXIMOS DE DISEÑO

METODO: FORMULA DE MAC MATH
Microcuenca Chimbo(Punto 2)

Período de Area de la Pendiente del Coeficiente de PPmáxima en

Caudal máximo
Retorno Cuenca curso principal escorrentía 24 hrs
C
(Años) (Ha) (m/Km) (mm) (m3/sg)
2 1157.80 17.000 0.70 34.90 4.80
5 1157.80 17.000 0.70 44.30 6.10
10 1157.80 17.000 0.70 50.60 6.97
25 1157.80 17.000 0.70 58.50 8.05
50 1157.80 17.000 0.70 64.40 8.87
100 1157.80 17.000 0.70 70.20 9.66